Gold is under pressure and continues to focus on weekly support
The Israeli-Iranian conflict that broke out on June 13th lasted for 12 days before a ceasefire agreement was reached. Iran retaliated against the US military base but did not block energy transportation. Trump called its response weak, and market concerns cooled. Gold and oil prices gave up their gains. Spot gold closed at $3,368.98 per ounce, close to flat. U.S. crude oil fell 9% from a 5% increase. Trump announced on Tuesday that Israel and Iran had reached a ceasefire agreement. After mediation by Qatar, Iran agreed, and Israel also hoped to end the conflict within a few days.
Gold fell as the situation eased and the demand for safe-haven assets weakened. Oil prices fell more due to the lack of risk in the Strait of Hormuz, and U.S. stock index futures rose. Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Bowman unexpectedly said that interest rates may be cut in July. U.S. Treasury yields fell and the U.S. dollar index fell, but did not support gold prices. The U.S. economy is facing inflation and growth slowdown pressure. If the situation in the Middle East worsens, oil prices may soar, exacerbating the risk of stagflation. Short-term ceasefires and differences with the Federal Reserve suppress gold prices. Medium- and long-term geopolitical risks and expectations of interest rate cuts support gold. Investors can pay attention to relevant developments and diversify their allocations.
In terms of gold, the overall price of gold fell on Monday. The highest price rose to 3396.68 on the day, and the lowest price fell to 3346.92, closing at 3368.94. On Monday, gold jumped higher in the early trading, and then came under pressure again. It continued to rise after the European and US trading to test the opening high. The price fell very weakly overnight, and finally ended with a big negative. At present, gold is still in a volatile decline.
From a multi-cycle analysis, first observe the monthly rhythm. The price ran according to the rhythm in May as the author said, and finally in a cross state. For June, focus on the gains and losses of the highs and lows in May. The price will only be a real break if it really closes above this position. The long-term watershed is at 2780. From a weekly level, the gold price is supported by the 3280 regional support level. From a mid-term perspective, we are still in a mid-term bullish position, but we need to pay attention to the market's retracement to the weekly support. At the same time, the price will be further under pressure only if it breaks the weekly support. From the daily level, the price breaks the 3365 daily watershed. The overall follow-up still focuses on the pressure performance, and the focus below is on the retracement to the weekly support. At the same time, according to the four-hour level, we need to pay attention to the 3360 position temporarily. Since gold is currently in a volatile decline, it will continue to be short before breaking 3405. In the short term, we will first focus on the four-hour and daily resistance pressure, and focus on the 3320 and 3280 area support below.
Gold 3360 and 3365 range is under pressure, and the target is 3320-3280
