GOLD XAUUSD oversold bounce after softer US Inflation dataGold recovers some of its early-week losses, trading around 3250 on Tuesday afternoon. A cautious market sentiment, combined with softer-than-expected U.S. April CPI inflation data, supports XAUUSD's stability.
Conclusion:
Gold remains resilient as easing inflation pressures and market caution provide a supportive backdrop.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 3288
Resistance Level 2: 3320
Resistance Level 3: 3350
Support Level 1: 3200
Support Level 2: 3173
Support Level 3: 3150
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XAUUSD trade ideas
Gold breaks through 3,300 – Selling pressure has not stoppedGold price plummeted from 3,325 to 3,237 USD/ounce after the US and China reached a temporary agreement to reduce taxes. The stock market is up, the USD is strong, money flows out of gold. I see selling pressure clearly dominating.
On H1, the price is still below EMA34 and EMA89, recovering weakly around 3,260. H4 confirms the downtrend that has been formed before. If it does not surpass 3,270, I am inclined to believe that gold will continue to fall to 3,200 – 3,180.
XAUUSD H4 | Bearish Reversal Based on the H4 chart, the price is rising toward our sell entry level at 3273.80, a pullback resistance.
Our take profit is set at 3168.89, a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibo retracement.
The stop loss is set at 3348.25, a swing high resistance.
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XAU/USD 12-16 May 2025 Weekly AnalysisWeekly Analysis:
Swing Structure -> Bullish.
Internal Structure -> Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 16 March 2025.
In my analysis dated 27 October 2024 I mentioned (below) that price could potentially print higher-highs in order to reposition CHoCH. This is exactly how price printed. CHoCH positioning has been brought significantly closer to current price action. CHoCH positioning is denoted with a shortened blue dotted horizontal line.
The remainder of my analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 09 February 2025.
Price has printed a further bullish iBOS.
Price is currently trading within an internal low and fractal high. CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue dashed line.
Price Action Analysis:
In my analysis dated 27 October 2024, it was noted that the first sign of a pullback would be a bearish Change of Character (CHoCH), indicated by a blue dotted line. Price's consistent upward momentum had repositioned previous CHoCH much closer to recent price levels as expected for weeks. Current CHoCH positioning is quite a distance away from price, therefore, it would be viable if price continued bullish to reposition ChOCH.
Note:
It is highly unlikely price will "crash" as many analysts are predicting. My view is this is merely a corrective wave of the primary trend.
Given the Federal Reserve's dovish policy stance alongside heightened geopolitical risks, market volatility is likely to remain elevated, influencing intraday price swings.
Price could also be driven by President Trump's policies, geopolitical moves and economic decisions which are sparking uncertainty and potential repricing of Gold.
Weekly Chart:
Daily Analysis:
Swing -> Bullish.
Internal -> Bullish.
Since my last weekly analysis price has finally printed a bearish CHoCH.
This is the first indication, but not confirmation of bearish pullback phase initiation.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Price should now technically trade down to either discount of 50% internal EQ, or Daily demand zone before targeting weak internal high, priced at 3,500.200.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s continued dovish stance, coupled with escalating geopolitical uncertainties, is expected to sustain elevated market volatility, influencing both intraday and broader trend developments.
Additionally, price action may be further shaped by U.S. policy decisions, including measures enacted under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic policymaking could introduce further uncertainty, contributing to the ongoing repricing dynamics within the gold market.
Daily Chart:
H4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 23 April 2025
Price has now printed a bearish CHoCH according to my analysis yesterday.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,500.200.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively.
Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics.
H4 Chart:
Gold Market Analysis – Weekly Outlook 10-05-2025Wondering where gold is heading next? Don’t worry, we’ve got you covered.
Our technical analysis indicates that gold has once again entered bearish territory on the 4-hour chart as of Friday’s close. This marks the second time in two weeks that gold has shifted into a bearish trend, further supporting our current outlook.
We have maintained a bearish bias on gold for several weeks, and the latest movement in the moving averages continues to validate this view, at least in the short term. Our team is actively monitoring the market for sell opportunities on lower timeframes, aiming to maximize profitability.
Stay tuned for further updates from the InvestmentLive trading desk.
Gold Showing Signs of a Potential Top Gold has all the hallmarks of a potential top, with signs pointing to a possible slowdown in the uptrend. While some weakness could develop over the coming weeks, this does not necessarily signal a reversal. The momentum remains strong enough that any pullback or dip could attract buyers looking to capitalize on lower prices, keeping the overall bullish trend intact.
XAUUAD UPDATE: 9- 05-2025This chart is for Gold (XAU/USD) on a 45-minute timeframe and includes technical analysis. Here are the key details:
Chart Components:
1. Support and Resistance Zones:
Lower Yellow Zone (~3241.450): This is a support zone where price previously bounced.
Upper Yellow Zone (~3414.901): This is a resistance zone where price previously reversed.
2. Current Price:
Price is currently around 3307.260, slightly above a key support area.
3. Projected Movement (Blue Arrows):
The blue line indicates a possible short-term dip into the support zone.
Followed by a reversal and rise toward the resistance zone around 3415.
4. Volume Indicator:
Volume appears to spike during key movements, showing strong interest at support/resistance levels.
5. Risk-Reward Box (Red-Green Shading):
Red area: Risk zone for long positions (if price drops below the support).
Green area: Reward zone if the price follows the projected upward movement.
Interpretation:
The chart suggests a bullish setup with an anticipated bounce from the support zone near 3241 and a target toward the resistance zone at 3415. This analysis assumes the support holds strong and buyers step in at that level.
Would you like a trading strategy or indicators to support this analysis?
GOLD 4H CHART ROUTE MAP UPDATE & TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEKHey Everyone,
Please see our updated 4h chart levels and targets for the coming week.
We are seeing price play between two weighted levels with a gap above at 3282 and a gap below at 3224. We will need to see ema5 cross and lock on either weighted level to determine the next range. We have a bigger range in play then usual.
We will see levels tested side by side until one of the weighted levels break and lock to confirm direction for the next range.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
The swing range give bigger bounces then our weighted levels that's the difference between weighted levels and swing ranges.
BULLISH TARGET
3282
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3282 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3343
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3343 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3404
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3404 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3439
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3439 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3503
BEARISH TARGETS
3224
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3224 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING RETRACEMENT RANGE
3190
3138
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3138 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
SWING RANGE
3088 - 3046
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3046 WILL OPEN THE SECONDARY SWING RANGE
SECONDARY SWING RANGE
3015 - 2988
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
Valid or fake out? - [1H] formationHere is what I noticed—let me know if this aligns with your perspective or if you see something different.
📌 Wave Structure Alignment
Wave A → C → E show corrective declines within the contracting triangle.
Wave B → D retrace in a controlled manner, respecting contraction limits.
Price tightening near 3392 - 3360, signaling absorption before a breakout move.
📌 Fibonacci Relationship Check
Wave A retraced ~38.2% - 61.8% of the previous impulse move.
Wave B & C followed standard corrective depths (~50% - 78.6%), aligning with expected fib levels.
Wave E represents the final squeeze (~38.2% - 61.8% of Wave D), acting as a breakout trigger.
📌 Liquidity Positioning & Institutional Play
Bullish Breakout Potential: A strong push above 3417 could activate momentum toward 3440 - 3510, but only if absorption transitions into expansion.
Bearish Breakdown Risk: If price rejects 3392, expect a liquidity grab driving price into 3303 - 3370 range.
💡 Verdict: What to Watch Next
The triangle structure appears valid, following typical Fibonacci relationships and smart money positioning. However, the breakout direction remains uncertain—monitor liquidity behavior closely before confirming entry.
📌 Key Levels in Play
🔹 3378 Retest: A crucial resistance zone—failure to reclaim suggests strong sell pressure.
🔹 Break Above: If buyers absorb selling pressure, the move could extend past 3385 pivot, favoring bulls.
🔹 Failure to Hold: A rejection at 3378 could induce fast liquidation, sending price toward 3363 and below.
🔥 Smart Money Perspective
Institutions may test 3378 multiple times before deciding the next move.
If absorption strengthens , price may lean bullish.
If rejection dominates , expect a fast downward sweep into 3339 - 3326 range.
The liquidity game is in play—what’s your take on this setup? Anything you’d fine-tune based on current order flow? 🚀🔥 Would love to hear your perspective!
Gold Market Update - XAUUSD post FOMC May 7🎤 Context: FOMC day just dropped the mic. Market’s fidgety. Fed held rates steady (no shocker), Powell said plenty (but meant little), and Gold just tap danced at resistance like it’s auditioning for Wall Street’s Got Talent. Let’s dissect it all and get sniper-precise.
🔍 MACRO CONTEXT
💣 FOMC Rate Decision: Rates unchanged. Dovish tilt in Powell’s tone – soft landing narrative holding.
💼 Market Impact: Dollar hesitant, equities flat, Gold caught in limbo near intraday premium.
🧠 Sentiment: Risk-on... cautiously. But Gold's structure says, “I still have traps to set.”
🧠 STRUCTURE INSIGHTS (H4 → M1)
🔹 H4 Bias: Bullish swing (CHoCH → BOS intact), premium territory.
🔹 H1-H4 Key Zone: 3451 = Previous HH, now resistance and first critical liquidity magnet.
🔹 Current PA: Sideways chop just under intraday premium.
🔹 Liquidity Above: Weak High around 3415–3420 ready for sniping.
🔹 Liquidity Below: HL sweep and imbalance open below 3384, with clean demand at 3366–3372.
🎯 SNIPER SELL ZONES
Sell #1 – 3412–3418 (Refined rejection block)
🟪 Confluence: 5M FVG + weak high + premium OB
🎯 Entry: 3412–3418
🛑 SL: 3425
🎯 TP1: 3390
🎯 TP2: 3372
🎯 TP3: 3350
Sell #2 – 3440–3455 (Retest)
💣 Only valid if price breaks above 3420 and sweeps next liquidity.
🟩 Entry: 3440–3455
🛑 SL: 3463
🎯 TP1: 3420
🎯 TP2: 3390
🎯 TP3: 3370
🎯 SNIPER BUY ZONES
Buy #1 – 3366–3372 (H1 OB + FVG confluence)
📌 Real-time unmitigated demand with strong structural confluence
🎯 Entry: 3366–3372
🛑 SL: 3355
🎯 TP1: 3395
🎯 TP2: 3415
🎯 TP3: 3440
Buy #2 – 3322–3330 (Deep liquidity sweep + H4 equilibrium zone)
💧 Only valid if full breakdown under HLs
🎯 Entry: 3322–3330
🛑 SL: 3305
🎯 TP1: 3355
🎯 TP2: 3370
🎯 TP3: 3390
⚔ BIAS
NY Session Bias: Sideways-to-bearish while under 3415
Macro Bias: Still bullish HTF, but intraday liquidity still needs clearing
Risk Note: FOMC aftermath = traps galore. Sniper entries only. No hero buys or chases.
Drop a 🚀 and follow us!
📌 Important Notice!!!
The above analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always compare with your plan and wait for confirmation before taking action.
Interest rates, will gold prices fall sharply today?⭐️GOLDEN INFORMATION:
However, US Dollar bulls appear cautious, holding back from making bold moves as they await clearer signals regarding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) future rate-cut trajectory. This wait-and-see stance, combined with ongoing geopolitical tensions—particularly the prolonged Russia-Ukraine conflict and unrest in the Middle East—continues to bolster demand for safe-haven assets like gold. As such, investors are likely to remain on the sidelines until the conclusion of the closely watched two-day FOMC policy meeting on Wednesday.
⭐️Personal comments NOVA:
Gold price awaits today's interest rate result, there was a good recovery above 3400 but then fell immediately after, showing that the market is not ready for the first interest rate cut if any, gold price may face strong selling pressure today
⭐️SET UP GOLD PRICE:
🔥SELL GOLD zone : 3438- 3440 SL 3445
TP1: $3425
TP2: $3410
TP3: $3395
🔥SELL GOLD zone : 3396- 3398 SL 3402 scalping
TP1: $3390
TP2: $3380
TP3: $3365
🔥BUY GOLD zone: $3308 - $3306 SL $3301
TP1: $3315
TP2: $3330
TP3: $3345
⭐️Technical analysis:
Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable sell order.
⭐️NOTE:
Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well
- take the number of lots that match your capital
- Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account
- Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
XAUUSD-Bearish Structure Intact, 3165 in SightAfter breaking back below the 3270 support, price accelerated to the downside, reaching a low around 3208.
A rebound followed, with XAUUSD retesting the 3270 zone, which now acts as resistance after the breakdown.
Looking ahead, I expect a break below the 3200 level, with the next bearish target set around the 3165 support zone.
The plan remains unchanged:
As long as Gold stays below 3270, I’m looking to sell rallies into that resistance area
#XAUUSD: Last Idea On Gold Has Helped Us Gain 1020+ pips Gold has reversed nicely from our last idea’s entry, making a nice 1020+ pips move. Now, we’re looking for the bullish trend to continue dominating the Gold market. If this happens, it could help us gain 1800+ pips. Please use accurate risk management while trading gold.
Once the trade is active, you may consider putting take-profit based on your analysis. There are two targets to consider.
Good luck and trade safely.
Thanks for your support! 😊
If you want to help us out, here are a few things you can do:
- Like our ideas
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- Share our ideas
Team Setupsfx_
❤️🚀
Gold continues to short despite rebound!Gold opened low and moved lower today, and then rebounded near the previous low. Now, at the four-hour level, a downward trend channel is formed from 3500 to 3440. The current support of gold price is near 3164. This is the condition that it can fall below the previous low of 3200 before continuing to push down. The middle track is at the early high of 3292. At present, the gold price is running between the middle and lower tracks of the channel, so 3292 can be used as a medium-term long-short watershed. The main idea is still to be bearish and downward. Secondly, pay attention to 3252, which is also a defensive position on the way down. The 1-hour moving average of gold continues to cross the downward short position. There is still room for downward movement. The strength of the short position is still there. The US market rebounded twice and fell back under pressure near 3248. Then the US market continued to be under pressure at 3248. The high-altitude short position is basically in place. The short-term focus on the upper side is 3248-3252 resistance, and the short-term focus on the lower side is 3200-3160 support.
XAUSD FOMC - Gold Sniper Plan - May 7 - 2025💥 XAUUSD FOMC Sniper Plan – May 7, 2025
"We Don’t Chase Breakouts. We Build the Trap Before the Noise."
🌍 Macro & Geopolitical Context – What Really Matters Today
Markets are frozen in anticipation of tonight’s FOMC bombshell:
📌 20:00 UTC – FOMC Statement & Rate Decision
📌 20:30 UTC – Powell Speaks
Traders are split. Some expect a dovish tone to push gold through ATH. Others brace for a hawkish surprise.
But let’s get one thing straight:
Gold has already run thousands of pips. It doesn’t need help going higher — it needs a reason not to collapse.
That’s what Powell holds in his hands tonight.
Meanwhile, geopolitics stay hot in the background:
Middle East tensions simmer (again).
Trump pressure on Powell to step down adds political risk.
Global yields are compressing → gold remains macro-favored.
This is not a time for guessing. This is a time for traps.
🧠 Current Structure Snapshot (Price: 3431)
HTF is still bullish, but we're extended.
Last confirmed HH = 3488, with ATH = 3500
We're in a short-term retrace under a H4 CHoCH → excellent sniper conditions.
🧱 Key Structural Levels
Zone Type Price Range Context
🔼 R2 3488–3495 Last HH OB + extension sweep trap
🔼 R1 3448–3455 H4 OB + liquidity pocket under HH
🔽 S1 3378–3384 H4 OB + FVG + EMA 50 confluence
🔽 S2 3333–3340 D1 OB + CHoCH + imbalance zone
We don't use FIBO extensions for guessing entries. We use them to target the crowd who does:
Extension Price Range Use
1.272 3530–3535 TP3 only
1.618 3575–3580 Final exhaustion area
🎯 Sniper Setups – Real, Refined, Ruthless
🟢 Buy #1 – 3378–3384
Valid H4 OB
FVG tail fill + internal liquidity
RSI around 40 + EMA 50 bounce
SL: 3365
TP1: 3405 | TP2: 3430 | TP3: 3455
🧠 Our first reaction zone before news madness.
🟢 Buy #2 – 3333–3340
D1 OB + imbalance
Clean internal liquidity from 3300–3330
Confluence with CHoCH base
SL: 3315
TP1: 3370 | TP2: 3405 | TP3: 3448
💎 This zone is invisible to retail — perfect trap before spike.
🔴 Sell #1 – 3448–3455
H4 OB at premium
EMA rejection + FVG close
Pre-news stop hunt ideal here
SL: 3462
TP1: 3430 | TP2: 3405 | TP3: 3385
🎯 Don’t short gold randomly — short it here, where retail longs trap themselves.
🔴 Sell #2 – 3488–3495
Last HH OB before ATH
Strong fibo ext confluence
Sweeps = liquidity + exhaustion
SL: 3504
TP1: 3465 | TP2: 3430 | TP3: 3395
If they want to break ATH before Powell, we’ll be waiting above it.
⚙ EMAs in Sync
EMA Signal
21 Tested from below — sell confluence at 3448
50 Lining up near Buy #1
200 Far below — macro still bullish
🧠 Execution Plan
Stay flat before FOMC unless setups trigger with PA confluence
Anticipate whipsaws → SLs must be respected
If price consolidates above 3455 = bullish continuation likely
If it sweeps 3448–3455 and rejects = sell of the week
Drop a 🚀 and follow us: if you’re not trading emotion — you’re trading execution.
📌 Important Notice!!!
The above analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always compare with your plan and wait for confirmation before taking action.