XAUUSD trade ideas
Gold CPI shocks and fallsThe hourly chart shows that the gold price fluctuated and consolidated at the bottom after a continuous correction, continuing the rebound trend. The key pressure level is the top and bottom conversion position. The current gold rebound is only a secondary confirmation of the top structure at the 30-minute level. After reaching 3365, the short-term has shown signs of pressure. In the volatile market, if the price begins to consolidate horizontally, it may indicate the end of this round of volatile upward trend, and it will enter a downward phase later. Considering the market sensitivity before the release of CPI data, it is recommended to focus on the volatile decline trend. After today's rebound, it is necessary to focus on the 3363-3368 area as a short-selling range, and the long and short defense position is set at yesterday's intraday high of 3375. In terms of operation, it is recommended to maintain the idea of rebounding and shorting, and pay attention to the 3340-3335 range for support below.
Operation strategy:
1. It is recommended to short gold near the rebound of 3363-3368, with a stop loss at 3375 and a target of 3350-3340.
GOLD ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone,
Absolutely beautiful to see our 1h chart idea playing out perfectly. After completing the bearish targets earlier this week, we had the ema5 cross and lock below 3306 opening the swing range.
- This played out perfectly hitting the first swing range level and doing exactly what it say son the tin giving the full swing into 3306 just like we highlighted.
We will now look for ema5 lock above 3306 for a continuation into the bullish targets above or failure to lock will see rejections into the lower Goldturns for suport and bounce.
If it continues to fail breakout above, into the first Bullish target, then we are likely to see the full swing range tested on the rejections.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 20 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
The swing range give bigger bounces then our weighted levels that's the difference between weighted levels and swing ranges.
BULLISH TARGET
3358
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3358 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGETS
3389
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3389 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3416
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3416 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3439
BEARISH TARGETS
3330 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3330 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
3306 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3306 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
3283 - DONE
3254
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
Gold Possible ScenarioGold is trading in a channel pattern now and may take support at 3340-3330 and rebound again to reach the target of 3390.the possible price movements are indicated here.
How to find solid trading opportunities amid gold volatility?Gold opened at around 3338, and then fluctuated and fell after reaching the highest point of 3344. The 3313 long orders that were publicly deployed yesterday reached the target range of 3327-3330 as expected and stopped profit smoothly. Although the overall trend is weak, it has never effectively left the range, and the typical bottoming rebound structure is still an important basis for the low-multiple thinking. The market rose to around 3340 in the short term and then fell again. The overall operation fluctuated and consolidated below 3340, and failed to reach the expected short order entry position, and maintained fluctuations until the close.
At present, gold is still in the range of fluctuations. Although the hourly line has some fluctuations, there is no obvious directional breakthrough, and it is more of a consolidation and accumulation state. The upper short-term suppression focuses on the 3345-3355 line, which is the current primary resistance area; the lower support focuses on the 3325-3315 area, and the judgment of the long and short key nodes is maintained. The daily structure shows a yin-yang staggered pattern. The market sentiment is cautious and the long and short forces are relatively balanced. Before an effective breakthrough is formed, the operation should be based on support and pressure points to avoid chasing ups and downs and do a good job of risk control.
Operation suggestions are as follows:
1. Go long near 3325-3315, with a target of 3340-3345.
2. Go short near 3345-3355, with a target of 3325-3320.
Today is Friday, and it is recommended to respond steadily, focusing on the competition for key support and resistance areas. I will prompt more real-time strategies and entry points at the bottom, remember to pay attention to it as soon as possible.
The high probability intraday trading strategy for gold is here!After gold fell below 3341 yesterday, the highest point of the rebound was around 3350-52. Today, we are long at 3320-25, and the target of 3340-45 has been reached. We continue to pay attention to the short-term suppression of 3340-45, but the overall rebound strength is limited. The 3340-45 point fell back several times last Friday, and it is now broken again. Therefore, we can participate in the short position at 3340-3345 in advance. Gold rebounded at 3322 today. Technically, it needs to rebound and repair when it falls back to 3316-20, so we can look for opportunities to go long below to seize the profit space of the rebound.
From the 4-hour analysis, the short-term pressure above is around 3340-3345, and the current focus is on the support of the middle track 3310 at the hourly level. If the gold price can effectively hold the 3310 area, it is expected to bottom out and rebound and test the intraday high, but the upper rail resistance of the 3345 channel is strong, and it may still fall under pressure when it is touched, and the range shock judgment will be maintained at that time. In terms of operation, if you hold this support, you can consider light positions to try short-term longs, and pay attention to the short-term support of 3320-3315 below. Relying on this range to maintain the main tone of high-altitude low-multiple cycles during the day, the middle position is always more watchful and less active, cautiously chasing orders, and patiently waiting for key points to enter the market. I will prompt more specific operation strategies at the bottom, and pay attention in time.
Gold operation strategy: Gold falls back to the 3322-3317 line to go long, the target is 3335-40 line, and continue to hold if it breaks.
Gold Rejected Post-CPI – Bearish Momentum Building Below $3,365Gold is currently trading near $3,338, continuing to show signs of rejection after testing the key $3,365–$3,392 resistance zone. The market has reacted to the July 15 U.S. CPI release, and despite initial volatility, gold failed to break above its major diagonal trendline, forming a lower high, a strong technical sign of weakening bullish momentum.
If price breaks below $3,330, it could trigger a wave of selling pressure down to $3,303 and $3,248 in the coming days. Traders should monitor price behavior around these zones for short-term entry opportunities.
📌 Technical Breakdown
Resistance Zone:
- $3,365–$3,392 remains the critical ceiling where gold got rejected for the third time in recent sessions.
- This zone aligns with the top of the descending wedge, long-term black trendline.
Bearish Structure Forming:
- After multiple attempts, gold could not sustain above the resistance.
- A series of lower highs and a weakening bullish push suggest a bearish continuation is likely.
Support Levels to Watch:
- Immediate: $3,337
- Mid: $3,320
- Strong: $3,303 (0.382 Fib) and $3,293
- Final Target: $3,248 → $3,220 → $3,193
🔺 Bullish Invalidation Scenario
If gold manages a clean breakout and close above $3,392, this bearish setup will be invalidated. In that case, upside targets would include:
- $3,412
- $3,434
- $3,490 (macro trendline)
But at the moment, that seems unlikely unless driven by unexpected fundamentals.
Note
Please risk management in trading is a Key so use your money accordingly. If you like the idea then please like and boost. Thank you and Good Luck!
3325–3315: Potential Bullish Reversal ZoneGold maintained a volatile trend today, but the highest intraday price only touched 3343. Overall, gold is still weak, but the bulls have not completely given up, and there is still a certain amount of energy, which limits the retracement space of gold. The current short-term support is in the 3325-3315 area. If gold cannot fall below this area in such a weak situation, the market may reach a consensus that 3325-3315 is the support area, thereby attracting a large amount of buying funds to flow into the gold market, thereby boosting gold to regain the bullish trend again and is expected to hit the 3350-3360 area.
So for short-term trading, I currently prefer to start long gold with the 3325-3315 area as support, first expecting gold to recover some of its lost ground and return to the 3350-3360 area!
GOLD 18.7.2025 FRIDAYHow to see on chart. waiting for clearly breakout of 4h channel then buying gold with SL . I see potencial taking Liquidity of 3390-3400. Enjoy!
Gold Faces Strong Rejection Below $3,365 – Bearish Wave Ahead?Gold is currently trading around $3,359, showing signs of exhaustion after climbing from the $3,248 low. The chart illustrates a textbook scenario of channel rejection after testing the upper boundary of the descending wedge and failing to break above the $3,365–$3,392 resistance zone. Price is now hovering just below the diagonal black trendline, indicating a potential lower high formation and setting up for another bearish wave.
📌 Key Technical Highlights
Resistance Zone: $3,365–$3,392
This area marks the confluence of the black long-term trendline, the top of the descending purple channel, and the previous high at $3,392.
Price attempted a "Possible Retest" as annotated on the chart and is now starting to pull back—showing signs of bearish rejection.
Bearish Scenario (Blue Arrows):
Multiple downward arrows show likely bearish paths if the current resistance holds.
Key short-term targets:
$3,337, $3,320, $3,303, Strong support at $3,293–$3,248
Further downside may test extension levels toward $3,220–$3,200 by early August if momentum builds.
⚠️ Bearish Confirmation Criteria
Failure to close above $3,365 (black trendline)
Breakdown below $3,337 followed by $3,320
Strong selling pressure supported by fundamentals (e.g. USD strength, Fed hawkish stance)
✅ Invalidation / Bullish Outlook
A decisive breakout and close above $3,392.73 would invalidate the bearish structure.
In that case, targets would shift toward:
$3,412, $3,434, $3,490 (long-term trendline intersection)
However, today's U.S. CPI (Consumer Price Index) release adds a layer of volatility and potential trend disruption, making this a high-risk trading day.
📊 CPI News Impact – What to Watch
High CPI (Stronger than forecast):
- Increases expectations of further Fed tightening → strengthens USD → bearish for gold
- Likely scenario: sharp drop toward $3,337 → $3,320 → $3,293
Low CPI (Weaker than forecast):
- Signals disinflation → weakens USD → bullish for gold
- Possible breakout above $3,365 → retest of $3,392 → if broken, target $3,412 and $3,434
Neutral or as expected CPI:
- Likely leads to whipsaw — fakeout on both sides
- Caution advised — wait for candle close confirmations post-news
Note
Please risk management in trading is a Key so use your money accordingly. If you like the idea then please like and boost. Thank you and Good Luck!
XAUUSD 15m trade possibilitty 7/21/25This is what I'm looking at for the short term after the recent rally.
I'm targeting the green area for buys because that was the last consolidation and breakout zone.
XAUUSD | GOLD | SellGot the confirmation from 15 minute timeframe.
Sell Gold till demand zone.
R:R 1:3,8
Mean Reversion Risk & Short Trap ?Analysis :: XAU/USD – July 21, 2025
🧩 Scenario Expansion – Mean Reversion Risk & Short Trap Variant
🧠 FLOW STATUS (Reassessment for MR scenario):
Order book shows replenishment at 3401.50–3403.00, forming a liquidity ceiling.
CVD diverging slightly on 1M–5M as price presses upward—distribution signal rising.
VWAP bands stretched: price outside 1.5x STD (mean reversion trigger zone).
🕳️ Low effort on buyer continuation despite printing highs.
📉 ALTERNATE SIGNAL: 🔃 MEAN REVERSION TO VWAP
🔹 Confidence Band: CONSERVATIVE → CONFIRMED if 3393 fails
📍 Break Trigger Zone:
Breach of 3393.00 on delta + seller reclaim → validates reversal logic
Watch for bid collapse or sustained negative delta below 3391
📉 Expected Pullback Targets:
TP1: 3387.80–3386.20 = VWAP + 1 STD reversion
TP2: 3383.00 = HLQ + CVD shelf
🛡️ Stop Zone for Mean Reversion Entry:
Above 3397.20 or on full absorption at 3395.50 (failure = trap scenario invalid)
🧮 Probability Estimate – Mean Reversion:
46–55% over next 6–12 hours
↑ Strengthens to 65–70% if price fails to reclaim 3394.50 after sweep + delta shift
📈 Trap Reversal Setup (Short trap flipped into long):
If price fakes below 3391.00 then spikes back above 3393.50 with aggressive tape → strong trap confirmation
In that case:
✅ Re-entry LONG with confirmation
📍 Entry: 3393.40–3394.20
🎯 TP: New highs at 3402.50+, then 3406.00
📚 NARRATIVE (Alt Scenario):
Market extended into premium zone without strong continuation. Liquidity overhead, delta divergence, and VWAP stretch suggest potential for correction. If bulls fail to defend 3393–3391, price likely seeks VWAP center and HLQ for rebalancing. Conversely, any reclaim of broken bids post-sweep flips scenario into a reactive long on trap fuel.
📦 MODULE TRACE (Alt Path):
🧠 Disciplined Entry Logic: Rule 3 (bias must adjust if liquidity contradicts setup)
💧 HLQ under VWAP (~3384–3387) aligned with pullback
🔄 Delta divergence + DOM ceiling = soft rejection
📦 Shadowcode ST3/ST5 if price forms mirror wick rejection
🧠 Trap Narrative Active only after flush + reclaim with flow shift
1507 a bull trend back to Gold Hello traders,
Gold has returned back above EMAs on daily chart.
On 4h chart, there is a chance for it to break through last top level to make a new high up to 3438 .
Take a good use liquidity of CPI of US today.
You could get a great result of that.
GOOD LUCK!
LESS IS MORE!
XAUUSD MULTI TIME FRAME ANALYSISHello traders , here is the full multi time frame analysis for this pair, let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions , the entry will be taken only if all rules of the strategies will be satisfied. wait for more price action to develop before taking any position. I suggest you keep this pair on your watchlist and see if the rules of your strategy are satisfied.
🧠💡 Share your unique analysis, thoughts, and ideas in the comments section below. I'm excited to hear your perspective on this pair .
💭🔍 Don't hesitate to comment if you have any questions or queries regarding this analysis.
XAUUSD – Summer Triangle ConsolidationGold (XAUUSD) is unfolding a textbook contracting triangle on the 4H chart, currently developing leg D of the pattern. This structure has been forming over the past few months and reflects classic market behavior during the summer — slow, sideways consolidation as many participants are away for the season.
Given the current structure, I expect one more leg down to form wave E, completing the triangle. Once this leg is in place and the support trendline holds, we could see a significant breakout to the upside in line with the broader bullish outlook on higher timeframes.
This setup remains valid as long as price continues respecting the triangle boundaries. I’m watching for a clean rejection at the lower trendline near point E to validate the bullish breakout scenario.
📌 Seasonality, structure, and market tempo suggest patience as the consolidation plays out. The breakout opportunity may follow shortly after leg E concludes.
#XAUUSD Buy 3324.57#XAUUSD Buy 3324.57
Stoploss 3314.57
Breakeven 3325.57
TakeProfit 1: 3334.57
TakeProfit 2: 3344.57
TakeProfit 3: 3354.57
TakeProfit 4: 3364.57
TakeProfit 5: 3374.57
Trade at your own risk
Protect your capital
The Wizard 🧙♂️ FDT
Thu 17 Jul ‘25 03:15 PM
GOLD AT CROSSROADS: CAPITALIZING ON MARKET SHIFTS FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
With Gold currently trading at 3357, we're at a pivotal moment. The confluence of heightened geopolitical tensions and recent decisive US government actions – including renewed tariff threats and evolving monetary policy signals – is creating a clear trajectory. Analysis indicates a compelling opportunity to initiate aggressive sell signals, targeting 3345 and then pushing for 3330. Risk is rigorously managed with a disciplined stop loss at 3380. This is a strategic move, designed to profit from the immediate downward pressures stemming from the global political and economic landscape, as the market re-calibrates to these powerful forces."
GOLD Will Keep Growing!
HI,Traders !
#GOLD keep trading in
An uptrend along the rising support
So as the pair is approaching
A the support we will be
Expecting a bullish rebound !
Comment and subscribe to help us grow !
Is This the Start of a New Gold Bull Run?News that must be paid attention to:
1. The Middle East region is in constant conflict and the situation is unstable, which may re-stimulate the market's risk aversion sentiment;
2. Trump strongly called for a rate cut, and many Fed directors agreed to the rate cut. Under the situation of internal and external troubles, can Powell withstand the pressure of rate cuts? In addition, the tense relationship between Trump and Powell, as well as the development of Powell's dismissal storm, have increased the market's risk aversion demand and enhanced the market's bullish sentiment;
3. The uncertainty brought about by the tariff issue may disrupt the market.
Technical aspects:
This week, the gold market is roughly a bottoming out and rebounding trend. We can clearly see from the recent candle chart that the recent trend line suppression is located near 3380, and this week gold has repeatedly encountered resistance and fallen in the 3375-3380 area, which has strengthened the suppression effect of resistance in this area to a certain extent; and gold has repeatedly tested the 3320-3310 area support during the retracement process. Gold has not fallen below the support of this area during multiple retracements, giving the market bulls great confidence.
On Friday, gold hit 3360 during the rebound and closed above 3350, which is strong in the short term. As gold continues to rebound, the current bull-bear dividing line is in the 3345-3335 area. If gold cannot even fall below the 3345-3335 area during the retracement next week, it will greatly boost buying power and is expected to hit the 3380 area again. Once gold breaks through the 3380 area during the rise, there will be a chance to further continue the rise and test 3400, or even the 3420 area.
Therefore, at the beginning of next week, if gold retreats to the 3345-3335 area for the first time, I think we must make an attempt to buy gold, first focusing on the target 3370-3380 area, and then bullish to the 3400-3420 area after a strong breakthrough.
Gold/XAUUSD Analysis Breaks Bullish Channel – Targeting 3400+🟨 Market Context:
Gold (XAU/USD) has recently completed a significant technical move that signals the potential start of a strong bullish continuation phase. After a period of consolidation inside a descending channel, price has broken above key resistance levels and is showing firm buyer strength across the board.
🔍 Technical Structure Breakdown:
🔹 Descending Channel (Consolidation Phase)
For several sessions, gold was confined within a well-defined descending channel, which typically indicates a temporary correction in a broader bullish trend. This phase served as a liquidity-building zone where smart money accumulated long positions.
🔹 Breakout & Retest Confirmation
The breakout above the upper boundary of the channel was clean and impulsive, confirming bullish intent. This breakout aligned perfectly with a previous demand zone (now retested as support), adding strong confluence.
Key Breakout Zone: $3,330–$3,340
Retest Action: Price pulled back to test the breakout zone, respected it, and printed a bullish reversal.
This behavior confirms the “breakout–retest–continuation” pattern—highly reliable in trending markets.
🔹 SR Interchange – Key Pivot Zone
The level around $3,340 served a dual role:
Previously acted as resistance within the channel.
Now acting as support post-breakout (SR flip).
This interchange area is significant because it reinforces the idea that bulls are now defending this level aggressively.
🔹 Bullish Pattern Confirmation
A bullish price pattern has formed exactly at the SR zone and near the trendline. This double confluence (pattern + level) provides high-probability trade setups and confirms the entry point for buyers.
🔹 Ascending Trendline Support
An emerging bullish trendline is now guiding the move upward, confirming that the market has shifted its short-term trend. Every bounce on this trendline reinforces bullish structure and validates higher-low formations.
🎯 Price Targets & Expectations:
✅ Previous Target Zone:
Around $3,375, already tapped and respected.
This shows that gold is following technical targets with precision.
🎯 Next Bullish Target:
$3,400 – $3,410 zone stands as the next supply region.
This area is a major psychological resistance and aligns with historical reaction points.
🧠 Trading Insight & Strategy:
With current price action and momentum, buying dips remains the optimal approach, provided the price stays above the SR Interchange zone.
🔽 Entry Zone: $3,345 – $3,350
📈 Targets:
TP1: $3,375 (partial exit)
TP2: $3,400–$3,410 (final target)
❌ Invalidation Zone (Stop Loss): Below $3,330
Breaking below this would invalidate the breakout structure and possibly signal a false breakout.
📌 Summary:
✅ Clear breakout from descending channel
✅ Retest of previous demand and SR flip zone
✅ Bullish pattern confirmed on key support
✅ Ascending trendline intact
🎯 Next logical move: $3,400+
The gold market is giving strong bullish cues, and this setup could be a textbook example of “buy the breakout, ride the trend.”
Stay sharp, trade smart, and keep your risk in check. 👑
Smart Money Concepts in Action: XAUUSD Tests Strong Resistance Market Context and Structure
On the 1-hour chart, XAUUSD (Gold) has been in a bullish market structure, forming consecutive Breaks of Structure (BOS)—a clear sign of buying pressure and upward momentum. These BOS points mark moments when the market forms new highs, confirming bullish continuation.
However, as price approaches the 3370–3380 zone, it reaches a well-defined resistance/supply area. This zone has previously rejected price and can be viewed as a region where institutional selling may occur.
🧠 Smart Money and Liquidity Concepts
From a Smart Money Concepts (SMC) perspective, price often moves to areas of liquidity—zones where buy stops (above highs) or sell stops (below lows) are collected. In this chart:
Price pushes up towards 3370, potentially grabbing liquidity above recent highs.
This move could be a liquidity sweep, where the market fakes a breakout to trap retail traders before reversing.
Such behavior often occurs near institutional zones, suggesting a possible distribution phase—where large players offload positions before a move in the opposite direction.
⚙️ Resistance Analysis: Why 3370 Matters
The 3370–3380 area has acted as a ceiling in the past.
Price is currently reacting near this level, showing early signs of rejection.
This zone aligns with previous order blocks, where institutions may have placed sell orders.
In educational terms, this shows how supply zones can act as natural turning points in a market, especially when price approaches them after an extended move.
📦 Support & Potential Downside
If a reversal happens from this resistance, the next key support zone lies between 3300–3320. This level has historically acted as demand and could be revisited for price rebalancing or order filling.
📝 Educational Summary
This XAUUSD chart provides a great learning opportunity in observing:
How Break of Structure (BOS) confirms trend direction.
The role of liquidity zones in trapping retail traders.
How smart money operates around key levels like 3370.
The importance of combining structure, zones, and reaction for confluence.
Retracement for cooldownBased on the spike leaving some long wick from 1 hour timeframe, there is a possibilities for it to retrace back for cooldown period before going up. My calculations lead to 3335 as a support level.
Sell - Take profit on 3335. Believe me, I am from the broken future. Just kidding.
