Elliott Wave Analysis of XAUUSDOn the daily chart of XAUUSD, we are witnessing a clearly defined Elliott Wave structure, with the potential formation of an extended wave (5) targeting the $3,726 region — aligned with the 0.618 Fibonacci extension. This is a key technical signal that could capture the attention of both long-term investors and strategic swing traders.
1. Elliott Wave Overview:
Wave (3) concluded at the peak around $3,365, followed by a textbook a-b-c corrective pattern.
Waves "a" and "b" are clearly identifiable, with wave "c" appearing to have completed.
The current price action suggests a rebound from the bottom of wave c — a strong indication of a possible start to wave (5).
2. Wave (5) Target Zone:
The Fibonacci 0.618 extension projects a target near $3,726 — a significant price level the market could approach if bullish momentum builds up.
This level also serves as a psychological resistance zone, so expect possible volatility as the price nears this area.
3. Price Behavior & Confirmation Signals:
Recent candlestick formations reveal renewed buying interest, with multiple bullish candles showing long bodies and lower wicks.
Holding above the key support around $3,300 is crucial for confirming the formation of an uptrend.
A breakout above the $3,365 high (wave (3) peak) would be a strong signal that wave (5) is in motion.
4. Suggested Trading Strategies:
Buy limit: Consider entries around the $3,310 – $3,320 support zone on a retest.
Buy breakout: Trigger entries if price breaks decisively above $3,365 with strong volume.
Take profit: Gradually scale out positions around the $3,680 – $3,726 area.
Stop loss: Place stops below the wave c bottom — under $3,245.
5. Conclusion:
XAUUSD is currently in a sensitive phase with a high probability of a bullish breakout. The Elliott Wave structure shows that there is still considerable upside potential. However, traders should maintain strict risk management, as wave (5) formations often involve significant price swings.
XAUUSD trade ideas
GOLD The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change for July 2,have a forecast of 99,000 jobs, compared to the previous month’s very weak result of 37,000—the lowest since March 2023. The ADP National Employment Report is a monthly indicator that tracks changes in non-farm private sector employment in the US, based on anonymized payroll data from ADP’s clients, covering about one-fifth of all US private employment.
Who is responsible?
The report is produced by the ADP Research Institute, part of Automatic Data Processing (ADP), in partnership with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab.
Why it matters:
The ADP report is viewed as a leading indicator for the official Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), released two days later.
It provides early insight into US private sector job growth and labor market health, and significant deviations from forecasts can move financial markets.
Note that the ADP report covers only private sector jobs, not government employment, so its numbers can differ from the official NFP.
Summary Table:
Report Date Forecast Previous Responsible Department
July 2, 2025 99,000 37,000 ADP Research Institute (ADP)
In summary:
The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report, produced by the ADP Research Institute, forecasted a rebound to 99,000 jobs in June after a very weak 37,000 in May, providing an early signal on the health of US private sector employment.
(2)US10Y drops to historical low to 4.193% and currently broken 1hr descending trendline at 4.281% ,4.3% resistance will be watched for breakout buy bond buyers.
(3) DXY Key Points:
The DXY measures the US dollar’s strength against a basket of six major currencies: the euro (57.6% weight), Japanese yen (13.6%), British pound (11.9%), Canadian dollar (9.1%), Swedish krona (4.2%), and Swiss franc (3.6%).
After peaking near 110.075$ in January 2025, the index has softened , trading near 96.600-101.966.on weekly TF 101.966 was a retest to broken weekly demand floor .
The dollar’s decline reflects market expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts later in 2025, easing inflation pressures, and some geopolitical easing.
the DXY to rebound will henge and depend on Fed policy and global economic conditions.
GOLD buyers are watching for the direction of trade ,
Chinese Demand and Policy:
China is one of the largest gold consumers and holders. Domestic demand, central bank gold purchases, and monetary policy in China heavily influence XAU/RMB. If China’s economy slows or trade tensions with the US worsen, demand for gold as a safe haven may increase, supporting XAU/RMB even if the dollar is strong.
China's recent opening of the Shanghai Gold Exchange's (SGE) first offshore gold vault in Hong Kong on June 26, 2025, represents a significant development with potential, albeit indirect, implications for XAU/USD (gold priced in US dollars) .
Key Aspects of the Hong Kong Gold Vault:
Location and Operation: The vault is located in Hong Kong and operated by Bank of China's Hong Kong unit .
Yuan-Denominated Trading: All transactions and settlements in the vault are denominated exclusively in yuan, either via cash or physical bullion delivery . Two new yuan-denominated gold trading contracts were launched alongside the vault .
Strategic Objectives:
Increased Influence on Gold Pricing: China, as the world's leading gold producer and consumer, aims to gain greater control and influence over global gold pricing mechanisms .
Yuan Internationalization: The initiative seeks to accelerate the international usage of the yuan, supporting China's broader de-dollarization efforts . This allows China to import gold in yuan, reducing reliance on the US dollar for commodity trading .
Enhanced Global Reach: The vault expands the SGE's physical infrastructure beyond mainland China, creating a new gateway for international gold trading and solidifying Hong Kong's role as a key financial hub .
Physical Settlement: It facilitates the physical settlement of gold contracts outside mainland China .
Implications for XAU/USD:
While the new vault directly promotes yuan-denominated gold trading, its implications for XAU/USD are primarily indirect and long-term:
De-dollarization Efforts: By promoting yuan-denominated gold trading, China is actively working to reduce global reliance on the US dollar in commodity markets . If successful, a more diversified global gold trading landscape could gradually diminish the dollar's sole influence over gold prices, potentially leading to less direct inverse correlation between the dollar and gold .
Increased Demand and Liquidity: The vault aims to attract more international participants to yuan-denominated gold markets, potentially increasing overall gold demand and liquidity in the Asia-Pacific region . While this demand is primarily yuan-driven, a generally stronger global gold market could indirectly support XAU/USD .
Price Discovery: The establishment of offshore yuan-denominated gold trading creates an alternative price discovery mechanism . This could, over time, offer a benchmark that is less directly tied to dollar-centric factors, which might subtly influence XAU/USD by diversifying global pricing inputs .
Market Fragmentation vs. Integration: This move could be seen as a step towards fragmenting the global gold market by creating a distinct yuan-based ecosystem, or conversely, as a way to integrate China more deeply into the international gold market by offering new access points . The ultimate effect on XAU/USD would depend on whether this leads to more cohesive or more disparate global gold price movements.
In summary: China's new Hong Kong gold vault is a strategic move to boost the yuan's role in commodity trading and increase China's influence in global gold pricing. While it primarily impacts yuan-denominated gold, its long-term success in de-dollarization efforts could indirectly, over time, alter the dynamics and correlations currently observed in XAU/USD.
XAUUSD BULLISH OR BEARISH DETAILED ANALYSISXAUUSD has officially broken out of a well-structured descending channel on the 4H timeframe, suggesting a potential shift in market sentiment from bearish to bullish. After multiple rejections from the lower boundary and consistent pressure on the upper trendline, the breakout above the channel confirms a strong upside bias. Price is currently holding near 3330, and I’m now eyeing 3450 as the next key resistance level. This setup aligns perfectly with a textbook channel breakout, offering a solid risk-to-reward scenario for bullish continuation.
The breakout comes at a time when macro fundamentals are supportive of gold strength. With rising uncertainty surrounding global inflation trends and mixed economic signals from the US, investors are leaning back into gold as a defensive hedge. The US dollar has shown signs of softening amid increasing speculation that the Fed could pivot to a more neutral stance in the coming months. This gives gold more breathing room to the upside, especially as real yields begin to flatten out.
Geopolitical tensions, especially renewed volatility around global trade and Middle East developments, are further fueling demand for safe-haven assets like XAUUSD. The recent breakout is backed by rising volume and momentum indicators turning bullish, making this move more sustainable than a short-term spike. Gold typically thrives during periods of uncertainty and shifting rate expectations, and that’s exactly the phase we are entering now.
From a technical and macroeconomic perspective, gold is showing strength just as the broader markets begin to wobble. This breakout isn’t just about structure—it’s supported by real macro catalysts and seasonal demand strength. I'm bullish toward the 3450 zone, and any retest of the broken channel resistance now turned support would offer an attractive entry. Staying focused on gold as a top performer in Q3 could offer strong upside with controlled risk.
XAU/USDPrice action trading is a methodology where traders make decisions based on the interpretation of actual price movements on a chart, rather than relying primarily on lagging indicators. It involves observing and analyzing candlestick patterns, trend lines, support and resistance levels, and volume to identify potential trading opportunities and manage risk. The focus is on understanding the story the market is telling through its price behavior.
Xauusd market This chart presents a bullish analysis for Gold (CFDs on Gold, 2h timeframe), with the price currently at 3,332.110, showing a slight decline of 0.20%.
Key Observations:
1. Support Zone (~3,250):
A strong demand zone is highlighted near 3,250, where price previously rebounded.
This zone is marked with icons (lightning bolt and U.S. flag), possibly indicating high-impact news or events expected around that area.
2. Current Price Action:
Price recently broke a downtrend line and rallied.
Currently pulling back near the 3,330 level, indicating a potential short-term retracement.
3. Projected Scenarios (Dotted Lines):
Primary Path (Bearish Short-Term → Bullish Mid-Term):
Price may dip back into the 3,250 support zone.
From there, a bullish reversal is anticipated, targeting:
First resistance: ~3,400
Second resistance: ~3,450
4. Resistance Zones:
Two clear supply zones are marked:
~3,400: First target zone after a bounce.
~3,450: Final target zone if bullish momentum continues.
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Summary:
The chart suggests a potential bullish continuation after a pullback. A retracement to around 3,250 could provide a strong buying opportunity with upside targets near 3,400–3,450, depending on price action and upcoming news catalysts.
Would you like a trading plan based on this setup (e.g., entry, stop-loss, targets)?
GOLD Massive Short! SELL!
My dear followers,
This is my opinion on the GOLD next move:
The asset is approaching an important pivot point 3350.4
Bias - Bearish
Safe Stop Loss - 3363.2
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear short signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bearish trend of the market.
Goal - 3328.2
About Used Indicators:
For more efficient signals, super-trend is used in combination with other indicators like Pivot Points.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
XAUUSD MONTHLY/WEEKLY ANALYSISWhat we’re seeing here on **XAUUSD (Gold Spot)** is a **classic higher-timeframe accumulation pattern** followed by **a potential explosive bullish leg**.
After a strong move up in April, we witnessed a **textbook V-reversal**, consolidation, and now — **a higher low** forming around the \$3,290 zone. That’s our key demand level. 💥
✅ If this higher low holds and price starts pushing with volume, we may be gearing up for a **multi-phase breakout** with the following potential targets:
🔹 **Target 1:** \$3,500
🔹 **Target 2:** \$3,694
🔹 **Target 3:** \$3,902
🎯 **Final Target:** \$4,101+
This isn’t just a short-term scalp setup. This is a **position trade opportunity** for those with patience and precision. The structure is clean, momentum is returning, and the levels are marked.
XAUUSD analysis - 1H FVG and OB SetupsBack after a few days with our gold update.
We’re on the 1-hour timeframe, and price has been respecting our levels perfectly, especially in the two blue boxes (1H FVGs) where we got precise reactions. These reactions are marked with green circles, showing areas where we entered on lower timeframes like 3m or 5m.
Currently, gold is sitting at a key area marked with a yellow circle (1H supply zone / resistance). If this area breaks strongly without a fakeout, we could potentially target higher resistance zones above.
Stay sharp and ready to catch clean reactions.
Key levels for confirmation:
3345-3358 (current important zone)
3300 (major 1H OB / support)
3420 (major 1H OB / resistance)
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📊 ProfitaminFX | Gold, BTC & EUR/USD
📚 Daily setups & educational trades
📱 IG: @profitamin.fx
Gold Completes Move to 3330s, Poises for Second-Half ShiftGold market price fills through 3330's from 3270's, aligning with the second-half of the year’s candle formation. A bullish build-up is being poised around 3296, yet caution remains as price trades within a bearish channel between 3250’s and 3330’s. A breakout could signal a shift in market sentiment going forward. follow for more insights ,comment for more opinions , and boost idea
Gold Bounces Off Trendline as Bulls Defend Structure Ahead of $3Gold (XAU/USD) has rebounded sharply from its rising trendline support and 50-day SMA (around $3,221), suggesting that the broader bullish trend remains intact despite recent consolidation below the $3,430 resistance.
The uptrend from the December 2024 lows continues to hold, anchored by a sequence of higher lows and a clear ascending trendline. The recent dip toward the trendline was met with firm buying, resulting in a strong bullish candle on the daily chart. Price action now sets up a potential retest of the $3,430 horizontal resistance — a key level that has capped multiple rallies over the past few months.
Momentum indicators paint a mixed but improving picture. The RSI has bounced from just below 40 to 46.64, avoiding oversold territory and hinting at a potential momentum recovery. Meanwhile, the MACD remains in negative territory but is beginning to flatten, signaling a possible shift in short-term momentum.
A confirmed breakout above $3,430 would mark a resumption of the broader bullish leg and expose gold to new highs. However, a breakdown below trendline support would invalidate the current structure and shift focus toward the 200-day SMA near $2,924.
For now, the trendline bounce gives bulls the upper hand, keeping the upside scenario in play.
-MW
GOLD - SHORT TO $2,800 (UPDATE)As expected last week Gold climbed into our 'Supply Zone' of $3,347 & rejected as I said it would on our video analysis. It even managed to close below our 'BOS' zone.
The game plan this week is to keep an eye on market structure for further sells. With every pump up we should be looking at how price can sell off again & how we can join the sell trend to profit off it.
Falling Wedge: The Bullish Pattern Most Traders Miss Falling Wedge: The Bullish Pattern Most Traders Miss
A falling wedge is a bullish pattern that forms when price action contracts between two downward-sloping lines. Both highs and lows are getting lower, but the lower trendline declines more slowly. This shows that sellers are losing momentum.
There are two types of falling wedges:
🟢In an uptrend, it acts as a continuation pattern. The price pauses and consolidates before breaking out upward again.
🔴In a downtrend, it acts as a reversal pattern, often signaling a bottom before a trend change.
Both versions look similar on the chart — a narrowing wedge sloping down. The breakout usually happens to the upside. To trade it 👇
1️⃣Wait for a confirmed breakout above the upper resistance line.
2️⃣Look for strong volume on the breakout to confirm the move.
3️⃣You can enter on the breakout or wait for a retest of the trendline.
4️⃣Place your stop below the recent low.
5️⃣Set a target based on the height of the wedge.
Falling wedges work best in strong trends and become more reliable the longer they form ✍️
#FAQ
Is this the end of the bears of XAUUSD?2 weeks in a row, the sellers were in control. The downward force this week is strong. The possibility of a further drop in the future is highly probable. However, there's also a potential recovery next week. Overall, it's still an uptrend; however, I won't ignore the new LH that formed this week as well.
XAUUSDGold has been under pressure from the Fed's cautious stance on rate cuts amid strong US employment data, the recovery of the US Dollar, and rising bond yields. Additionally, the relative easing of Iran-Israel tensions in the Middle East has weakened safe-haven demand and increased selling pressure.
Technically, a break below the yellow rising trend line of around 3,290-3,300, loss of EMA50 support, RSI below 50, and weakening momentum on MACD suggest a bearish scenario.
Therefore, gold may retreat to the 3,260-3,240 range, and if the breakout continues, 3,200-3,210 or even 3,130-3,100 levels can be targeted
However, if there is a reaction in the 3,260-3,280 support band, accompanied by a recovery in the RSI and MACD indicators, a rebound scenario towards 3,340-3,350, 3,430-3,450 in case of a break above 3,430-3,450 - eventually 3,500 may come into play.
XAUUSD - Local Bearish Trend and Retest of Support-ResistanceOverall Trend:
The chart shows that Gold (XAUUSD) has been in a downtrend over the depicted period, particularly after a significant drop around June 24th/25th from the higher price levels (around 3348-3350). While there have been attempts at recovery, the price has generally been making lower highs and lower lows, indicating bearish momentum.
Key Observations and Potential Entry Points:
Liquidity Area (Resistance/Potential Retest Zone): -The yellow shaded area marked "Liquidity Area (Gold can Retest)" between approximately 3330 and 3348 acted as a strong resistance zone after the initial drop.
Potential Entry (Short): If the price were to rally back into this "Liquidity Area" and show clear signs of rejection (e.g., bearish candlestick patterns like pin bars, engulfing patterns, or failure to break above it), it would be a strong point to consider a short (sell) entry. The red arrow indicates this possibility.
Rejection Zone (Current Resistance): - The yellow shaded area marked "Rejection Zone" around 3310-3319 is currently acting as a significant resistance. The price has attempted to break above it multiple times and has been rejected.
Potential Entry (Short): This area also presents a potential short (sell) entry if the price retests it and shows clear signs of rejection. The current candle is below this zone, indicating the rejection has already occurred.
"Sell Below this Area" (Breakdown Point): - The blue shaded area around 3293.51 - 3287.80 is highlighted as a critical support level.
Strong Point to Enter Trade (Short): - The chart explicitly labels this as "Sell Below this Area." If the price breaks convincingly below this support level (with strong bearish candle close below and follow-through), it would be a high-conviction short (sell) entry point. This indicates a potential continuation of the downtrend to lower targets. The red arrow signifies this downward move.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): - The RSI (14) is currently at 28.33. This indicates that Gold is approaching or is in oversold territory. While oversold conditions can sometimes precede a bounce, in a strong downtrend, prices can remain oversold for extended periods. It's crucial to combine RSI with price action. If the price breaks below the "Sell Below this Area" with an already oversold RSI, it might suggest a strong bearish momentum overwhelming any immediate bounce.
Trade Entry Strategy Summary:
Aggressive Short Entry: Consider a short if the price retests the "Rejection Zone" (3310-3319) or the higher "Liquidity Area" (3330-3348) and shows clear bearish rejection.
Confirmation Short Entry (Strongest Signal): The most robust short entry highlighted is a confirmed break and close below the "Sell Below this Area" (3293.51 - 3287.80). This would signal a continuation of the bearish momentum.
Important Considerations:
Risk Management: Always define your stop-loss order (e.g., above the rejection zone or above the breakdown level) to limit potential losses.
Target Levels: While not explicitly marked with targets, after a breakdown, look for previous swing lows or significant psychological levels as potential profit targets. The red line at 3274.98 could be an initial target if the "Sell Below this Area" is breached.
Confirmation: Always wait for candlestick confirmation (e.g., a strong bearish close) before entering a trade.
Timeframe: This is a 2-hour chart. The analysis is valid for this timeframe, but always consider higher timeframes for broader trend confirmation.
News/Fundamentals: While this is a technical analysis, be aware of any upcoming economic news or events that could impact Gold prices.
In conclusion, the chart strongly suggests a bearish bias for Gold, with key resistance zones above and a critical support level below that, if broken, could lead to further significant downside.
Disclaimer Warning - Do your own research before trading in Gold, we are not responsible for your loss...
XAUUSD Seems Going UpGold price trades with a mild positive for the second straight day on Thursday, though it lacks follow-through and remains below the $3,350 level through the early European session. Reports that US President Donald Trump was considering replacing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell raised concerns over the future independence of the US central bank.
XAU / USD 2 Hour ChartHello traders. Although I didn't take the trade, you can see the analysis was spot on. A shout out to Big G. I am not trading today, but I will post another chart in a bit. We have the NY open in half an hour or so, let's see how that plays out. Most of the news was good for the US dollar. If you wonder where to watch the numbers to trade spot gold, I use forex factory calendar. Be well and trade the trend.
Tariff shadow and gold's safe-haven game
This week, market sentiment was stirred up and down by Trump's tariff stick. This unconventional president, while firing at Canada and Japan, let the July 9 tariff deadline hang like a knife over the heads of risky assets. If the suspension order is not extended, the market may have to relive the chaos of "Liberation Day" in April - gold will become the "safe-haven spare tire" at this time.
Although the situation in the Middle East has cooled down, gold has stabilized at $3,340 due to the weakness of the US dollar and tariff anxiety. After falling to 3,245 at the beginning of the week, it rebounded quickly, and the bulls were briefly revelry, but the real test will be on Thursday's non-agricultural data - whether it will rush to 3,400 or return to 3,300, it all depends on the face of the US dollar and Trump's next move. If the tariff powder keg is ignited, gold will rise; if it is postponed, this precious metal is afraid to "fall out of favor" again.
Technically, the daily line is long, with short-term support at 3,330-3,336 and resistance at 3,358-3,365. In terms of operation, continue to follow the trend and buy low at night, ambush near 3336-3330, and look at 3400 if it breaks.
The script of gold always switches between "panic" and "greed" - and Trump may be the most competent "director" at the moment.
XAUUSD 4H – Full Technical & Fundamental Deep Dive🔷 Chart Structure & Trendlines
Since early June, gold has formed a clean descending channel on the 4‑hour chart. Each bounce and rejection has respected these channel edges, which reflect consistent lower highs and lower lows.
A long-term ascending trendline (from late March lows) was recently broken. This broken support has now flipped into resistance, and price is currently retesting it.
The intersection of the descending channel’s top, the trendline resistance, and the 200 EMA creates a major triple-confluence zone—a classic area of institutional interest.
🔷200 EMA
The 200 EMA on the 4H chart is acting as dynamic overhead resistance, which price is currently testing.
Historically, during bearish regime, retests of the 200 EMA from below often trigger strong rejections.
If price breaks above and holds, it would mark a significant shift in market sentiment. If rejected, it adds weight to the bearish trend.
🔷Fair Value Gap (FVG) & Supply Order Blocks
A Fair Value Gap (vicinity of $3,340–3,350) remains structurally unfilled from the previous breakdown.
Price is now re-entering that FVG region—an area often used by smart money to target liquidity and trap retail traders.
This is a logical zone for sell orders, as price frequently reacts where gaps exist.
🔷Volume Profile: High/Low Volume Nodes
A High-Volume Node (HVN) sits around $3,360, where most sustained trading has occurred. This acts as a strong resistance/distribution area.
The current zone ($3,330–3,340) is a low-volume pocket, meaning moves through here can be fast, but rejections are still frequently seen.
Below, there's another HVN around $3,280–3,290—a logical demand area and intermediate target for retracement.
🔷Fundamental Perspective – This Week to Friday
🔸 U.S. Fed Outlook & Dollar Dynamics
U.S. dollar is weak, with growing speculation on imminent Fed rate cuts, partly due to pressure from political sources
Fed remains cautious—no July cut likely, more probable in September
Persistent volatility in Fed messaging means gold remains in play as a hedge.
🔸 Geopolitical & Macro Drivers
Geopolitical tensions (Middle East, trade) continue to add safe-haven support
Central banks, especially Australia, are upping gold purchases—may add structural support
🔸 Market Sentiment & Investment Flows
ETF inflows remain robust—global central bank demand offsetting retail weakness
Some macro research houses expect sideways action into early July, with range likely between $3,200–3,350
🔸 Risks Ahead of Friday
Watch for U.S. jobs data, Fed speakers, and geopolitical headlines—any surprise could spark sharp moves.
If Fed hints at delays in rate cuts or geopolitical risk cools, gold could see a rapid reactive drop.
🔷🤔 Possible Scenarios into Friday
✅ Bearish Rejection
Price fails to clear $3,340–$3,360 zone.
A strong rejection candle retests $3,280–$3,290.
Could accelerate down to $3,240 if momentum picks up.
⚠️ Bullish Breakout
Clean, high-volume break above 200 EMA and $3,360 HVN.
Likely continuation to $3,380–3,400, especially if supported by fundamentals (e.g., inflation, Fed dovish pivot).
🔷My Personal Bias into Friday
Slight bearish lean due to triple resistance confluence.
Fundamentals are mixed: Fed caution supports gold structurally but no immediate catalyst.
I will monitor price action closely: a sharp rejection off the 200 EMA area would confirm suspicion; but a clean breakout would require reassessment.