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XAUUSD trade ideas

HelenP. I Gold may continue to decline to support levelHi folks today I'm prepared for you Gold analytics. After dropping from the support zone, the price of Gold found temporary support near the trend line and started to rise again. The upward movement was sharp and even created a gap while breaking through the previous support level, which then acted as resistance. For some time, the price hovered around this resistance area but failed to gain enough strength to break higher. Eventually, Gold pulled back to the trend line and began consolidating within a triangle pattern. Inside this structure, it managed to break above the resistance zone again, but this breakout turned out to be false. The price quickly reversed and dropped, breaking through the resistance level and exiting the triangle to the downside. This breakdown also shows that the bullish momentum has weakened significantly. Now, Gold is trading near the trend line again, showing hesitation and a lack of strong bullish continuation. Given this technical behavior, I expect a small rise toward the trend line, followed by a continued drop toward the support level at 3320. That’s the area I’m watching as my current goal. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️ Disclaimer: As part of ThinkMarkets’ Influencer Program, I am sponsored to share and publish their charts in my analysis.
THINKMARKETS:XAUUSDShort
by FirstNameHelen
17
XAUUSD MONTHLY/WEEKLY ANALYSISWhat we’re seeing here on **XAUUSD (Gold Spot)** is a **classic higher-timeframe accumulation pattern** followed by **a potential explosive bullish leg**. After a strong move up in April, we witnessed a **textbook V-reversal**, consolidation, and now — **a higher low** forming around the \$3,290 zone. That’s our key demand level. 💥 ✅ If this higher low holds and price starts pushing with volume, we may be gearing up for a **multi-phase breakout** with the following potential targets: 🔹 **Target 1:** \$3,500 🔹 **Target 2:** \$3,694 🔹 **Target 3:** \$3,902 🎯 **Final Target:** \$4,101+ This isn’t just a short-term scalp setup. This is a **position trade opportunity** for those with patience and precision. The structure is clean, momentum is returning, and the levels are marked.
ICMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by Nadia_farhat
Gold Bounces Off Trendline as Bulls Defend Structure Ahead of $3Gold (XAU/USD) has rebounded sharply from its rising trendline support and 50-day SMA (around $3,221), suggesting that the broader bullish trend remains intact despite recent consolidation below the $3,430 resistance. The uptrend from the December 2024 lows continues to hold, anchored by a sequence of higher lows and a clear ascending trendline. The recent dip toward the trendline was met with firm buying, resulting in a strong bullish candle on the daily chart. Price action now sets up a potential retest of the $3,430 horizontal resistance — a key level that has capped multiple rallies over the past few months. Momentum indicators paint a mixed but improving picture. The RSI has bounced from just below 40 to 46.64, avoiding oversold territory and hinting at a potential momentum recovery. Meanwhile, the MACD remains in negative territory but is beginning to flatten, signaling a possible shift in short-term momentum. A confirmed breakout above $3,430 would mark a resumption of the broader bullish leg and expose gold to new highs. However, a breakdown below trendline support would invalidate the current structure and shift focus toward the 200-day SMA near $2,924. For now, the trendline bounce gives bulls the upper hand, keeping the upside scenario in play. -MW
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by FOREXcom
XAUUSDGold has been under pressure from the Fed's cautious stance on rate cuts amid strong US employment data, the recovery of the US Dollar, and rising bond yields. Additionally, the relative easing of Iran-Israel tensions in the Middle East has weakened safe-haven demand and increased selling pressure. Technically, a break below the yellow rising trend line of around 3,290-3,300, loss of EMA50 support, RSI below 50, and weakening momentum on MACD suggest a bearish scenario. Therefore, gold may retreat to the 3,260-3,240 range, and if the breakout continues, 3,200-3,210 or even 3,130-3,100 levels can be targeted However, if there is a reaction in the 3,260-3,280 support band, accompanied by a recovery in the RSI and MACD indicators, a rebound scenario towards 3,340-3,350, 3,430-3,450 in case of a break above 3,430-3,450 - eventually 3,500 may come into play.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by celilADIGUZEL
XAUUSD - Local Bearish Trend and Retest of Support-ResistanceOverall Trend: The chart shows that Gold (XAUUSD) has been in a downtrend over the depicted period, particularly after a significant drop around June 24th/25th from the higher price levels (around 3348-3350). While there have been attempts at recovery, the price has generally been making lower highs and lower lows, indicating bearish momentum. Key Observations and Potential Entry Points: Liquidity Area (Resistance/Potential Retest Zone): -The yellow shaded area marked "Liquidity Area (Gold can Retest)" between approximately 3330 and 3348 acted as a strong resistance zone after the initial drop. Potential Entry (Short): If the price were to rally back into this "Liquidity Area" and show clear signs of rejection (e.g., bearish candlestick patterns like pin bars, engulfing patterns, or failure to break above it), it would be a strong point to consider a short (sell) entry. The red arrow indicates this possibility. Rejection Zone (Current Resistance): - The yellow shaded area marked "Rejection Zone" around 3310-3319 is currently acting as a significant resistance. The price has attempted to break above it multiple times and has been rejected. Potential Entry (Short): This area also presents a potential short (sell) entry if the price retests it and shows clear signs of rejection. The current candle is below this zone, indicating the rejection has already occurred. "Sell Below this Area" (Breakdown Point): - The blue shaded area around 3293.51 - 3287.80 is highlighted as a critical support level. Strong Point to Enter Trade (Short): - The chart explicitly labels this as "Sell Below this Area." If the price breaks convincingly below this support level (with strong bearish candle close below and follow-through), it would be a high-conviction short (sell) entry point. This indicates a potential continuation of the downtrend to lower targets. The red arrow signifies this downward move. RSI (Relative Strength Index): - The RSI (14) is currently at 28.33. This indicates that Gold is approaching or is in oversold territory. While oversold conditions can sometimes precede a bounce, in a strong downtrend, prices can remain oversold for extended periods. It's crucial to combine RSI with price action. If the price breaks below the "Sell Below this Area" with an already oversold RSI, it might suggest a strong bearish momentum overwhelming any immediate bounce. Trade Entry Strategy Summary: Aggressive Short Entry: Consider a short if the price retests the "Rejection Zone" (3310-3319) or the higher "Liquidity Area" (3330-3348) and shows clear bearish rejection. Confirmation Short Entry (Strongest Signal): The most robust short entry highlighted is a confirmed break and close below the "Sell Below this Area" (3293.51 - 3287.80). This would signal a continuation of the bearish momentum. Important Considerations: Risk Management: Always define your stop-loss order (e.g., above the rejection zone or above the breakdown level) to limit potential losses. Target Levels: While not explicitly marked with targets, after a breakdown, look for previous swing lows or significant psychological levels as potential profit targets. The red line at 3274.98 could be an initial target if the "Sell Below this Area" is breached. Confirmation: Always wait for candlestick confirmation (e.g., a strong bearish close) before entering a trade. Timeframe: This is a 2-hour chart. The analysis is valid for this timeframe, but always consider higher timeframes for broader trend confirmation. News/Fundamentals: While this is a technical analysis, be aware of any upcoming economic news or events that could impact Gold prices. In conclusion, the chart strongly suggests a bearish bias for Gold, with key resistance zones above and a critical support level below that, if broken, could lead to further significant downside. Disclaimer Warning - Do your own research before trading in Gold, we are not responsible for your loss...
FX:XAUUSDShort
by ForexTrader4all
Report - June 26, 20251. Ceasefire, Oil, and Market Sentiment: Markets are stabilizing after a volatile stretch driven by geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran. A ceasefire, brokered by President Trump, appears to be holding, encouraging risk-on sentiment across global asset classes. Brent crude has fallen back to $68.17 per barrel, erasing earlier war-driven spikes. Traders swiftly sold oil after Iran's symbolic missile attack on a US base in Qatar, interpreting it as a move to de-escalate rather than escalate. This rapid reaction, fueled by open-source intelligence and satellite imagery showing the base was empty, helped unwind the geopolitical premium in crude. Energy consultancy Rystad noted Iran even increased crude exports amid the conflict due to lack of refining capacity. With OPEC+ boosting supply and US shale output high, the market anticipates an oversupplied scenario by year-end. Strategists like Amrita Sen (Energy Aspects) expect crude to test $50–60, while RBC’s Helima Croft said the White House is unlikely to tap the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, given sufficient alternative supply buffers. 2. Equities and Sector Rotation: US equity indices were mixed: the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.2% to 22,237.74, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones dipped slightly. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) dropped 1.1% to 16.77, signaling easing investor fear. Year-to-date, tech leads with XLK up 31.95%, followed by communications (XLC +23.46%) and discretionary (XLY +18.69%). Defensive sectors lagged: utilities (XLU +19.13%), consumer staples (XLP +9.15%), and real estate (XLRE -1.27%). Recent sector performance reflects a recalibration away from energy and interest-rate sensitive names. XLE has tumbled 4.65% over the past five days, mirroring declining oil, while XLRE’s underperformance worsened, highlighting investor caution in yield-sensitive areas. The growth/value debate continues: large-cap growth (IWF) was the only factor posting a gain (+0.29%), while small-cap growth (IJT) fell 1.2%, underscoring preference for quality and scale. 3. Fixed Income and Sovereign Yields: Rates edged higher. The US 10Y Treasury yield rose 2 bps to 4.32%. Germany’s 10Y bund climbed 3 bps to 2.57%, and UK gilts ticked up 1 bp to 4.46%, driven by expectations of higher issuance to fund increased NATO defense spending. US Treasuries across the curve remain elevated: 1Y at 3.99%, 2Y at 3.77%, and 30Y at 4.81%. Despite global easing signals, sovereign borrowing costs stay elevated, reflecting inflation stickiness and geopolitical risk premia. TIPs and agency MBS have outperformed on a 1Y basis, with TIP +4.7% and GNMA +5.76%. 4. NATO Commitment and Fiscal Risk: At The Hague summit, NATO allies pledged to meet Trump's demand for 5% of GDP in defense spending by 2035, a seismic shift from the previous 2% benchmark. While reaffirming Article 5 commitments, Trump emphasized US support hinges on European “burden sharing,” pressuring Spain for opting out. The summit declaration promises annual roadmaps and a 2029 review—coinciding with Trump’s potential exit from office. Germany’s Chancellor Merz called the commitment a moment of “putting our money where our mouth is,” but bond markets reacted with concern. The FTSE 100 slid 0.5%, and the DAX fell 0.6%, reflecting fiscal anxieties tied to expanded military budgets. 5. Policy Front – Trump’s Tax Push & Debt Outlook: The White House claims its proposed tax bill will lower debt via growth and tariff revenue. CEA estimates show debt-to-GDP dropping to 94% by 2034 with $8.5–11.2 trillion in deficit reduction. Yet the CBO projects the bill would add $2.4 trillion to deficits—and $2.8 trillion when factoring in higher rates. Trump’s pressure campaign on Senate Republicans includes urging round-the-clock negotiations. However, concerns linger among fiscal hawks like Sen. Ron Johnson, who warned of “an acute debt crisis.” 6. Credit Markets and Insurance Breakdown Risk: Credit spreads are holding stable, but US liability insurance is flashing red. Marsh data shows US casualty insurance rates have risen for 23 straight quarters. Executives at Everest and Aspen warn of a “breakdown” in coverage availability due to runaway litigation costs and “forever chemicals” claims. Everest’s reserves for US casualty risks now top $1.7 billion. Insurers are lobbying for tort reform, and rate hikes of 20–25% in excess liability are becoming the norm. This insurance squeeze poses a serious inflationary threat to businesses, especially in logistics, construction, and hospitality. 7. Trade Disruption – FedEx Feels the Pinch: FedEx shares dropped nearly 6% after warning of sharp deterioration in China–US freight, driven by the end of the “de minimis” $800 tariff exemption used by platforms like Temu and Shein. This lane, their most profitable intercontinental route, now faces structural weakness. While Q4 net income rose 13% to $1.65B, guidance for EPS of $3.40–4.00 (below expectations) reflects uncertainty ahead. 8. M&A Spotlight – Brighthouse Bidding Heats Up: TPG and Aquarian Holdings are the final bidders for Brighthouse Financial, a $3.5B life insurer. Despite interest from Apollo, Carlyle, and Blackstone, many walked due to legacy annuity liabilities and high capital charges. The strategic appeal remains strong: control over policyholder premiums enhances credit origination capabilities for private capital platforms. An exclusive negotiation could emerge in the coming week. 9. Political Heat – Warren Targets Private Equity: Senator Elizabeth Warren is probing PE firms (Apollo, KKR, Blackstone, Bain, Thoma Bravo) for lobbying efforts related to the “carried interest” loophole and private credit tax breaks embedded in Trump’s tax bill. The senator demands disclosures by July 2, while Trump pushes for bill signing by July 4. The American Investment Council responded that raising taxes on private capital would “kill jobs” and hurt innovation. The legislation, approved narrowly in the House, slashes taxes and expands debt—a key flashpoint heading into summer recess. 10. Currency, Commodities, and Global Trends: Brent crude trades at $67.95 and WTI at $65.18. Gold holds at $3,335, up 45% YTD, though recent profit-taking has slowed its rally. Silver (+26.2% YTD) and copper (+12.5%) also reflect bullish industrial demand. In FX, GBP/USD is up 0.3% to 1.3705; EUR/USD is at 1.1681 (+0.02%). USD/JPY slid to 144.57 (-0.66%). On a 1Y basis, GBP and EUR are both up over 8%, while the yen is down nearly 10.5%, continuing its depreciation due to BOJ’s dovish stance. --- Equities: Current Positioning: Equities are delicately balanced. The S&P 500 is up +3.6% YTD, Nasdaq +3.4%, but Dow only +1.0%, reflecting the rotation into growth, defensives, and high-cap tech. However, small caps are under heavy pressure (IJR/SPY -1.05% daily, down YTD), and value is again underperforming. Tactical Implications: Overweight: Large-Cap Growth (e.g., XLK, IWF) – Mega-cap tech remains the secular winner (+31.95% YTD in XLK). Given moderating rates and weak cyclicals, expect further leadership unless yields spike. Underweight: Small-Caps (IWM), Real Estate (XLRE), and Energy (XLE) – These are vulnerable to tightening credit, low breadth, and oil retracements. XLRE is -1.27% YTD and XLE dropped -4.65% in the past week alone. Neutral: Financials (XLF) – The sector is at a crossroads. While yields support net interest margins, the liability insurance shock and credit pricing discipline weigh on capital-intensive names. Actionable View: Stay concentrated in quality tech and cash-flow-rich defensives. Consider rotating out of overextended discretionary and look for short-term mean reversion trades in oversold industrials only on technicals. Fixed Income: Market: The UST 10Y yield is at 4.32%, up 2bps on the day. Notably, the 2Y/10Y curve is flattening again (+55bps spread), but with upward pressure on the long end driven by fiscal overhang (NATO rearmament, tax cuts). Strategic View: Short Duration Preferred – Laddered Treasuries and 1–3Y paper outperforming (e.g., SHY +0.65% YTD). Long duration remains risky despite falling inflation, given massive expected issuance. TIPS as Inflation Hedge – TIPs up +4.7% YTD continue to provide inflation-linked protection. Elevated defense and healthcare spending bolster this theme. Credit Call: High-Grade Corporate (LQD) – Valuation remains stretched, but spread stability gives buffer. Prefer LQD over HYG or CWB, where spreads are at risk due to funding costs and insurance withdrawal risk. Action: Maintain a core laddered Treasury base, with modest high-grade credit. Fade the long end on rallies; use TLT as a tactical short if 10Y breaches 4.4–4.5%. Commodities: Key Developments: Brent crude fell sharply (-6.1%) post-ceasefire, now at $67.95. Markets no longer price geopolitical premium. Iran’s production rising, US SPR untapped, and China’s buying shifting. Gold stabilizing at $3,335 after peaking on war fears; silver remains stronger at $36.34 (+26.2% YTD). Outlook: Oil: Short-Term Bearish to Neutral – Expect continued selling on rallies unless supply chain disruptions emerge. Range: $62–70/bbl. Gold: Wait for Re-Entry – Momentum slowing but structural inflation hedging still intact. Look for re-entry near $3,200. Position cautiously if dollar strengthens. Ags: Avoid – Corn and wheat continue to slide. Corn -7.5% MTD and -10.3% 3M; soybeans -11.7% YTD. No catalysts to reverse. Action: Tactical shorts in oil remain viable unless Iran–Strait of Hormuz risk flares again. Hedge tail risks with gold but reduce exposure if USD rallies. Currencies: DXY weakening slowly, but USD/JPY still at 144.5 (-9.42% 1Y), EUR/USD firm at 1.1681. Sterling outperforming: GBP/USD +8.2% 1Y. Implications: Short USD/JPY Holds – BOJ still dovish, yen oversold, risk-on flows support reversal. High conviction macro long on JPY. Watch GBP/USD – Strong rally, nearing overbought territory. Use strength to rotate to EUR if ECB surprises. EMFX Mixed – Avoid high beta EM (ZAR, TRY) due to USD and rates. Selective value in BRL, INR if USD pulls back further. Action: Maintain partial USD hedge via EUR and JPY. EMFX traders should stay risk-off short term; low carry + volatile backdrop makes it unattractive. Credit & Insurance Markets: Everest ($1.7bn reserves) and Aspen warning of “coverage breakdown” in US casualty insurance. Litigation exposure (PFAS, data privacy, social cases) is a systemic risk. FedEx’s collapse in China–US freight (-6% equity) is a red flag on consumption + supply chain health. Expect more insurers to restrict exposure to high-litigation US states or raise rates >25%. Positioning: Be cautious on mid-cap financials, reinsurers, and commercial real estate debt with liability linkage. Corporate credit: Avoid HY and convertibles. LQD remains the safe zone.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by Buranku
June 25, 2025 - XAUUSD GOLD Analysis and Potential OpportunitySummary: Gold remains in a consolidation range between 3340 and 3400. If price holds above 3350, bullish momentum may return and push toward 3365. If price breaks below 3315, the strategy remains to sell on pullbacks to resistance. 🔍 Key Levels to Watch: • 3365 – Resistance • 3350 – Midpoint / Bull-Bear Line • 3342 – Key Resistance • 3328 – Resistance • 3315 – Intraday Key Support • 3300 – Psychological Support • 3295 – Support • 3285 – Support 📉 Intraday Strategy: • SELL if price breaks below 3315 → watch 3305, then 3300, 3295, 3285 • BUY if price holds above 3350 → target 3356, then 3365, 3370, 3375 👉 If you want to know how I time entries and set stop-losses, hit the like button so I know there's interest — I may publish a detailed post by the weekend if support continues! Disclaimer: This is my personal opinion, not financial advice. Trade with caution and always manage your risk.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Ombabibi
XAUUSD GOING SHORTGOLD has recently broken its last low, shifting market structure (CHOCH) and indicating sellers are currently in control. This break opened up 2 clear Supply Zone above — a small base or last bullish candle before the drop — which is a key area where unfulfilled sell orders may be resting. Price is likely to retrace back into these Supply Zone to fill those orders. Once it reaches this area, we expect selling pressure to resume and push price downward, honoring the imbalance left by the drop. Entry: I’m looking to sell from this Supply Zone on a pullback, This lets me enter at a premium price while trading in direction of the newly established downward momentum. Target: The first Target Profit (TP) is set at the next Demand Zone below, where buying pressure might emerge. This Demand Zone is a key area to watch for a reversal or a temporary halt in downward momentum. Stop Loss: To control risk, the Stop Loss (SL) is placed just above the Supply Zone. If price climbs above this area, it would invalidate the Supply’s ability to hold, signalling a potential reversal. ✅ Summary: • Market has shifted to bearish after breaking last low. • Supply Zone above is a key area to watch for selling opportunities. • Sell upon retracement into Supply, with Stop Loss above and Target at Demand below.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by AFOKE
1
XAUUSD 4H – Full Technical & Fundamental Deep Dive🔷 Chart Structure & Trendlines Since early June, gold has formed a clean descending channel on the 4‑hour chart. Each bounce and rejection has respected these channel edges, which reflect consistent lower highs and lower lows. A long-term ascending trendline (from late March lows) was recently broken. This broken support has now flipped into resistance, and price is currently retesting it. The intersection of the descending channel’s top, the trendline resistance, and the 200 EMA creates a major triple-confluence zone—a classic area of institutional interest. 🔷200 EMA The 200 EMA on the 4H chart is acting as dynamic overhead resistance, which price is currently testing. Historically, during bearish regime, retests of the 200 EMA from below often trigger strong rejections. If price breaks above and holds, it would mark a significant shift in market sentiment. If rejected, it adds weight to the bearish trend. 🔷Fair Value Gap (FVG) & Supply Order Blocks A Fair Value Gap (vicinity of $3,340–3,350) remains structurally unfilled from the previous breakdown. Price is now re-entering that FVG region—an area often used by smart money to target liquidity and trap retail traders. This is a logical zone for sell orders, as price frequently reacts where gaps exist. 🔷Volume Profile: High/Low Volume Nodes A High-Volume Node (HVN) sits around $3,360, where most sustained trading has occurred. This acts as a strong resistance/distribution area. The current zone ($3,330–3,340) is a low-volume pocket, meaning moves through here can be fast, but rejections are still frequently seen. Below, there's another HVN around $3,280–3,290—a logical demand area and intermediate target for retracement. 🔷Fundamental Perspective – This Week to Friday 🔸 U.S. Fed Outlook & Dollar Dynamics U.S. dollar is weak, with growing speculation on imminent Fed rate cuts, partly due to pressure from political sources Fed remains cautious—no July cut likely, more probable in September Persistent volatility in Fed messaging means gold remains in play as a hedge. 🔸 Geopolitical & Macro Drivers Geopolitical tensions (Middle East, trade) continue to add safe-haven support Central banks, especially Australia, are upping gold purchases—may add structural support 🔸 Market Sentiment & Investment Flows ETF inflows remain robust—global central bank demand offsetting retail weakness Some macro research houses expect sideways action into early July, with range likely between $3,200–3,350 🔸 Risks Ahead of Friday Watch for U.S. jobs data, Fed speakers, and geopolitical headlines—any surprise could spark sharp moves. If Fed hints at delays in rate cuts or geopolitical risk cools, gold could see a rapid reactive drop. 🔷🤔 Possible Scenarios into Friday ✅ Bearish Rejection Price fails to clear $3,340–$3,360 zone. A strong rejection candle retests $3,280–$3,290. Could accelerate down to $3,240 if momentum picks up. ⚠️ Bullish Breakout Clean, high-volume break above 200 EMA and $3,360 HVN. Likely continuation to $3,380–3,400, especially if supported by fundamentals (e.g., inflation, Fed dovish pivot). 🔷My Personal Bias into Friday Slight bearish lean due to triple resistance confluence. Fundamentals are mixed: Fed caution supports gold structurally but no immediate catalyst. I will monitor price action closely: a sharp rejection off the 200 EMA area would confirm suspicion; but a clean breakout would require reassessment.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by cryptobrat000