Important data, GOLD traded quite narrowly ahead of FOMCOANDA:XAUUSD there are many fluctuations but still maintain the main uptrend, on this trading day the market will receive US retail sales data, this data will have a certain influence on the decision of the Federal Reserve (FED) this week.
Today (Tuesday), the US Census Bureau will release retail sales data for August.
Economists expect US retail sales to fall 0.2% monthly in August, after rising 1% in July.
US retail sales data typically has a greater impact on financial markets, potentially influencing the trend of assets such as the US dollar and gold.
August data is expected to be lower than July's positive data and is expected to guide the extent of the Fed's interest rate cuts, favoring a 50 basis point cut instead of a 25 basis point cut. copy. Of course, this is negative for the US Dollar and positive for gold.
While retail sales data will be the primary focus today, the focus this week is on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision due to be announced on Wednesday.
According to CME's "Fed Watch" tool, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September has jumped to 67.0%. Less than a week ago, the market believed the Fed would cut interest rates by 25 basis points, while only 25% believed the Fed would cut interest rates by 50 basis points. This is a signal that the possibility of a 50bps cut on Wednesday is becoming more solid.
Since gold does not yield interest, a low interest rate environment can reduce the opportunity cost of investing in gold, which is more beneficial for gold.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
Temporarily, gold is still trading in a fairly narrow range but the main uptrend has not changed technically with the price channel as the main trend and the EMA21 moving average as the main support.
Gold's short-term uptrend is limited by the 0.618% Fibonacci extension, which readers noticed in the weekly publication on Sunday. For gold to have enough conditions to increase in price further, it needs to bring price activity above 2,582 USD, and this is also the current closest resistance level.
Even if gold has not been able to break the $2,582 level to reach the next short-term target level at the original price point of $2,600 and beyond the 0.786% Fibonacci level, it still has a bullish bias.
However, corrections can still occur because the technical principle is that the market will not be able to move in a straight line, and the immediate correction in the short term will be limited by the Fibonacci 0.50% price point of 2,561. USD, this is considered the closest support level currently.
During the day, gold's uptrend may encounter short-term corrections with notable price levels listed below.
Support: 2,575 – 2,561USD
Resistance: 2,600 – 2,612USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2606 - 2604⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2610
→Take Profit 1 2599
↨
→Take Profit 2 2594
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2544 - 2546⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2540
→Take Profit 1 2551
↨
→Take Profit 2 2556