XAUUSD trade ideas
forecast 03/06/2025XAUUSD Forecast | VSA & Trend Line Analysis | Gold Price Prediction
In this video, I share my detailed forecast for XAUUSD (Gold vs. USD) using Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) and trend line strategies. Watch as I break down the market structure, identify key levels, and explain the logic behind potential moves in gold.
Gold Price Analysis June 2With the recovery waves of the D1 frame, the position of Gold returns to the wide Sideway near the ATH zone
3360 and 3260 sideway 100 price for the current trend. And today it is still possible to break this zone.
GOLD increased strongly in the European session, touching the upper border of the sideway model
The h1 wave is still a more bullish wave. With the support zone opening the GAP of the Asian session 3296 is still considered a strong support zone today. The breakout zone in the morning also becomes an important support zone
In the opposite direction of the break 3360, there is still a zone 3368 as the immediate resistance before the Gold price is on the way to ATH. Attention daily resistance 3396
Potential Breakdown with Retest or Reversal Zone โThis chart represents a classic Double Top pattern, a bearish reversal signal indicating strong resistance around the 3,380 - 3,390 USD zone (marked with two white circles).
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๐ Key Zones and Levels:
1. Resistance Zone (~3,380 - 3,390 USD):
Price was rejected twice here.
Suggests strong selling pressure and buyer exhaustion.
2. Mid Support/Retest Zone (~3,337.857 USD):
Marked with a horizontal white line.
Could act as a short-term resistance if price retraces.
3. Demand Zone (~3,330 - 3,337 USD):
Highlighted green box: potential reversal/retest zone.
Bullish scenario: price bounces from here and heads back to retest resistance.
4. Current Price (~3,309.980 USD):
Price has broken below the demand zone and is approaching strong horizontal support.
5. Lower Support (~3,265 - 3,270 USD):
Highlighted with blue horizontal lines and purple arrows.
Could be the next bearish target if breakdown is confirmed.
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๐ Two Possible Scenarios:
๐ Bearish Continuation:
Price retests the broken demand zone (now resistance).
Rejects and forms a lower high.
Falls toward the lower support around 3,265โ3,270 USD.
๐ Bullish Reversal:
Price reclaims the green demand zone.
Pushes above 3,337.857 USD level.
Heads back to retest the double top area (~3,380 USD).
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โ
Conclusion:
The bias is currently bearish, supported by:
Double top formation.
Breakdown below key demand zone.
Momentum favoring further downside.
However, a bullish reversal is possible if price reclaims the 3,337 USD zone and shows strong bullish structure.
Weekly IDEA on Gold/XAUUSD 9-13 June 2025Technical Confluences:
Bearish FVG:
Fresh Fair Value Gap formed due to aggressive sell-off.
FVG = supply zone, acting as magnet for liquidity + rejection
Broken Channel Retest:
Price fell below the ascending channel
Now retesting the channel, a classic structure behavior before continuation.
Liquidity Below:
Clear clean lows visible around $3,290 โ $3,250 โ $3,120.
These levels could serve as liquidity targets for institutional movement
Rejection Candlestick Anticipated:
If a strong rejection candle (e.g., bearish engulfing / wick trap) forms inside FVG, entry confidence increases.
๐ Trade Idea (Signal)
Sell Limit Idea
Entry Zone: $3,332 โ $3,344
SL: $3,355 (above FVG and channel invalidation)
TP1: $3,290
TP2: $3,250
TP3: $3,120
RR: Approx. 3R+
โ Alternate Bullish Scenario:
If price reclaims and closes back inside the channel (above $3,355):
The current bearish setup is invalidated.
Bullish momentum could resume with possible push toward $3,400 โ $3,445.
๐ง Final Thoughts:
This is a classic SMC + market structure confluence.
Wait for rejection confirmation inside the FVG for higher probability.
Avoid chasing the move โ precision entry at supply is key.
Gold has reached the integer mark, and there will be big moves!Short-term analysis of gold; the recent fluctuations of 1-200 US dollars have greatly increased the difficulty of trading for retail investors. It seems that there are many opportunities in a day, but in fact, the big market mainly appears in a few times. If you can't keep up in time, you can only watch the price jump up and down. The most feared thing is not to keep up with the market, but the price returns to the same point, but the principal is gradually reduced.
Last week, gold did not appear purely unilateral, all kinds of reversals, staying at the same point at different times, but many friends suffered heavy losses, which is extremely challenging to the mentality and adaptability. If you still have positions last week, please communicate with me at any time and give the best solution.
Gold operation ideas today;
1; The upper short order can enter the market at the 3400 line, with a stop loss, the target is more than 20 points, today's short only try once at this position, try not to short at other positions
2; The lower long order can be tried at the 3330 line, look at 10-15 points, and lose 8 points. If you want to try long orders, you must strictly set a stop loss.
~If you still hold short positions below, it is recommended to unlock positions in batches. Do not hold positions blindly, as this will be very passive.
US-China Talk Drops Gold Short; Short StrategyToday, Trump announced that China and the U.S. participated in a telephone exchange ๐! After the market learned this, optimistic sentiment surged rapidly, causing U.S. stock futures to rise sharply in the short term ๐. As a result, spot gold turned lower in the short term โ. The current situation favors short positions:
Short at current price ๐: Initiate a small short position near 3350 ๐, set a unified stop loss above 3360 โ ๏ธ, and target key support levels at 3325-3320 ๐ฏ.
Add to shorts on rebound โ๏ธ: If the price rebounds to the 3350-3360 range, increase the short position ๐, maintaining the same target ๐ฏ.
Chase shorts on breakdown ๐ฅ: If the price breaks below 3320 support, chase the short trend with a stop loss at 3330 โ ๏ธ, targeting the psychological level of 3300 ๐ง .
Risk reminder โ ๏ธ: Monitor U.S. stock futures and follow-up developments in U.S.-China relations closely ๐, and be wary of volatility caused by a reversal in market sentiment ๐ฆ. Keep position sizes within 10% โ๏ธ and strictly adhere to stop losses โ.
Gold Trading Strategies
sell@3350-3355
tp:3325-3320
sell@3315-3320
tp:3305-3300
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I still have a short position.Although gold has risen sharply to above 3380 due to the intensification of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, it has not made a substantial breakthrough, and has not stabilized above 3380. The bulls are not determined, which also shows that the technical suppression in the 3290-3295 area above is still strong. If gold does not break through in one fell swoop, gold is likely to usher in a wave of retracement in the short term.
Due to the fundamental impact of tariff issues and geopolitical conflicts, for short-term trading, we should not have too high expectations for the extent of the retracement for the time being, but it is expected to retrace to the 3365-3355 area. In terms of short-term trading, I still hold a short position executed near 3375, and I hope that gold can fall back and hit TP as expected.
Trading strategy:
Consider shorting gold in the 3375-3385 โโarea, TP: 3365-3355
The market is testing a strong resistance zone Trade Rationale:
The market is testing a strong resistance zone near 3368. If this level holds, we anticipate a pullback or downward correction. Momentum indicators are showing signs of weakening bullish strength, which supports a short position.
XAUUSD (GOLD/USD) โ SELL TRADE ANALYSIS ๐
๐ป SELL ZONE:
Entry recommended around 3368 level, where selling pressure is anticipated based on current resistance and price action signals.
Take Profit Targets:
TP1: 3365 โ Initial intraday target
TP2: 3360 โ Key minor support
TP3: 3355 โ Short-term structural support
TP4: 3350 โ Deeper correction level
TP5: 3345 โ Final target for extended bearish move
๐ Stop Loss:
SL: 3378 โ Placed above the resistance zone to protect against upside breakout
WAVE 3 PEAK OR SETUP FOR A NEW RALLY? XAUUSD PLAN โ JUNE 3RD | WAVE 3 PEAK OR SETUP FOR A NEW RALLY?
After a massive $100 rally at the start of the week, gold has begun to pull back โ dropping over $30 during the Asia session today. This is likely the end of Wave 3 (the strongest impulse in a 5-wave Elliott structure), as investors lock in profits and await key macro events.
๐ MACRO & FUNDAMENTAL CONTEXT
A high-stakes call between Trump and Xi Jinping is expected this week, which could reshape short-term trade sentiment.
Investors are moving into cash positions, taking profits after Mondayโs surge, and waiting for direction from the upcoming US-China negotiations.
Macro themes remain supportive for volatility: tariff risks, inflation worries, and geopolitical uncertainty.
๐ TECHNICAL OUTLOOK โ H2 / H4 / D1
On the higher timeframes (H4 and D1), gold maintains a bullish structure, with EMAs aligned for upside continuation.
On intraday charts (M30โH1), weโre seeing a clean correction, likely to fill the Fair Value Gap (FVG) zone below.
The key BUY zone at 3320โ3310 will decide direction:
If it holds: strong long setups.
If it breaks: possible structure shift and deeper downside.
๐ KEY LEVELS TO WATCH
๐ข BUY ZONE: 3320 โ 3318
SL: 3314
TP: 3324 โ 3328 โ 3332 โ 3336 โ 3340 โ 3344 โ 3350 โ 3360 โ ???
๐ด SELL ZONE: 3388 โ 3390
SL: 3394
TP: 3384 โ 3380 โ 3376 โ 3370 โ 3366 โ 3360 โ 3350
๐ FINAL THOUGHTS
โGold is in a healthy correction after a massive surge. The 3310โ3320 zone is crucial. Hold it, and bulls may take over again โ break it, and we may see a deeper pullback."
โ ๏ธ Stay cautious ahead of political headlines. Any remarks from the TrumpโXi call could spark aggressive price action.
GOLD Additional factors supporting goldโs bullish opening include:
Modest US dollar weakness: The dollar has softened amid fiscal concerns and growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates later in 2025, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.
US fiscal concerns: Worries about the US debt situation and potential impacts of tax-cutting bills have increased safe-haven demand for gold.
Technical buying: Gold prices breaking above key resistance levels have attracted fresh buying interest, setting the stage for further gains toward $3,400 and beyond.
In summary, the bullish gold opening today reflects a combination of heightened geopolitical risk, trade war escalation, US fiscal concerns, and expectations of Fed easing, all of which drive investors to seek safety in gold.
XAUUSD โ Inverse Head and Shoulders BreakoutAn inverse head and shoulders pattern has formed on the 15-minute chart of XAUUSD. The left shoulder, head, and right shoulder are clearly marked, and a breakout above the neckline has occurred with strong bullish momentum.
Price has retested the breakout zone and is showing signs of support above the neckline and trendline. Volume also confirms the move, with increased buying pressure during the breakout.
This setup indicates a potential bullish continuation. The trade idea includes a favorable risk-to-reward ratio, with the target zone near 3390 and stop-loss placed just below the neckline support around 3330.
Technical Highlights:
Pattern: Inverse Head and Shoulders
Neckline Breakout Confirmed
Support Levels: 3303, 3330
Resistance/Target Zone: 3390+
Volume Confirmation: Present
This is a technical analysis idea and not financial advice. Always manage your risk.
Trade UpdateGoldโs strong bullish momentum has extended from the London session into the US session, invalidating our previous expectations. Our outlook has now shifted decisively to the upside for the yellow metal.
We are targeting an initial move to $3,500, with the potential for a new all-time high beyond that level.
However, we anticipate a short-term pullback to retest the falling trendline โ now acting as support โ before resuming its upward trajectory.
From the Trading Desk of InvestmentLive
Gold in down trend (correction wave )Sell gold 3305-3309, stop loss at 3315 (4-hour candle close above), targeting 3245 (600 pips), risking 100 pips.
Price is currently in wave Z of a WXYXZ correction. Invalidation level for this correction is 3345. Confirmation of downtrend continuation is a close below 3270.
Currently holding the short position. Watching price action around 3270 for confirmation of further downside. A break below would strengthen the bearish outlook and pave the way towards the 3245 targets. Will monitor for any signs of bullish reversal but maintaining the stop loss at 3315 for now. Invalidation level at 3345 remains the key level to watch for a potential trend change.
Is the positive news fading? The latest analysis of gold๐ฐ Impact of news:
1. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine breaks out again, exacerbating the uncertainty of the situation
2. The tension in the Middle East continues, Iran claims to be ready to defend its airspace at any time, and the Houthi armed forces attack Israeli airports
3. May PMI data released
๐ Market analysis:
As geopolitical conflicts between Russia and Ukraine and the Middle East broke out again over the weekend, gold jumped higher today. From a technical perspective, the 1H chart shows a bullish arrangement, but the gold price is in a downward channel at the daily level. The gold price is currently near the middle track of the Bollinger Band and is obviously suppressed by the downward channel. The 4H level Bollinger Bands narrowed, the moving averages adhered, the long and short positions were in a stalemate, and the MACD indicator hovered around the 0 axis. 3330 - 3335 above is the key resistance area. If it breaks through 3340, it is expected to continue to see new highs. At the same time, there is short-term support in the 3285-3280 range below. 3270 - 3265 becomes the key important support. If it falls below, it may fall to 3245. For short-term operations in the Asian and European sessions today, if the resistance area of 3325-3335 cannot be effectively broken through, you can consider shorting and look towards 3310-3290 in the short term.
๐
Trading strategies:
SELL 3325-3335
TP 3310-3290
If you agree with this view, or have a better idea, please leave a message in the comment area. I look forward to hearing different voices.
TVC:GOLD FXOPEN:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD
Bears counterattacked strongly, is the 3300 mark in danger?Gold bulls collapsed! Bears counterattacked strongly, is the 3300 mark in danger?
Fundamental analysis
Safe-haven demand weakened
The call between the leaders of China and the United States released a signal of easing trade tensions, the market risk appetite rebounded, and gold rose and fell.
Spot gold once hit a four-week high of $3,403 during the week, but eventually closed down 1.26% to $3,310.
The market is paying attention to the US non-farm data and the policy trends of the Federal Reserve. If the data is strong or strengthens the expectation of interest rate hikes, it may further suppress the gold price.
Despite the short-term pressure, the gold price has risen by 28% this year, and its long-term safe-haven attribute has not changed.
Technical analysis
Weekly level
The pattern shows significant pressure from above, and the MACD high dead cross sign indicates that the bears may continue to test the 3300 mark.
Daily level
The decline for several consecutive days broke the short-term moving average (5-day/10-day moving average), and the MACD dead cross increased in volume, which was overall bearish.
The key support moves up to 3295 (Bolin middle rail), if it fails, it will open up downward space.
4-hour level
The price breaks below the Bollinger lower rail, the moving average system is arranged in a short position, and the MACD dead cross has sufficient momentum. The short-term may test the 3280 support.
Operation strategy
Resistance level
Short-term: 3328-3330 (short dividing point)
Strong resistance: 3345-3350 (breakthrough will slow down the downward rhythm)
Support level
Primary: 3290-3280 (beginning of the week target)
After breaking, look to the 3250-3230 area
Recommendations
Main strategy: short-selling on the rebound to the 3328-3332 area, stop loss above 3345, target 3290-3280.
Auxiliary strategy: light long orders at the first touch of 3280, stop loss below 3270, target 3300-3310.
Risk warning: If the non-farm data is lower than expected or the geopolitical situation changes suddenly, be wary of a bullish counterattack.
XAUUSD IDEALocally, on the hourly XAUUSD timeframe, we can clearly see how the price is breaking out of the uptrend, thereby triggering a downward impulse.
Resistance levels: 3325, 3343
Support levels: 3303, 3275
The liquidity level of 3300 could act as a magnet for the price, from which a correction to the resistance of the range of 3325 could form (liquidity hunt), but due to the change in the fundamental background, gold may continue its correction to 3275 (support zone) before a possible continuation of growth..โถ๏ธ๐