XAUUSD trade ideas
XAUUSD Weekly analysisWe can see how gold reached a high probability reaction point at 3,000, where we had the past ATH, now we see how gold is rising after that rebound, we have some levels marked in the area of 3028 and 3035 approx, where we are waiting to see the price action when reaching these areas, if the price decides to break up we could be waiting for a new ATH during the next week, at a target of approximately 3,100, otherwise we could see a small reversal to the levels of 2893, to 2950.
032Opportunity Analysis and Logical Analysis for goldHello traders,
This week's Thursday tip:
On Thursday, the Federal Reserve's important interest rate decision was finalized. Focus on the situation of profit-taking in gold at high levels, looking for short-term short-selling opportunities in gold on the 1-hour chart.
On the 4-hour chart, there is a clear RSI divergence, indicating that gold is oversold and there is a need for a short-term pullback.
On the 1-hour chart, wait for a reversal confirmation signal on the 4-hour chart, then look for an entry signal on the 1-hour chart to short gold!
**TP1:** 3025
**TP2:** 3005
**TP3:** 2989
On Friday during the Asian early session, after 9:30 AM, gold experienced a pullback due to the divergence on the 4-hour chart, reaching the first target of 3025. It is currently recommended to reduce positions and continue holding.
On the 4-hour chart, consider that gold may undergo a corrective adjustment in the form of an expanding triangle. Wait for the reversal confirmation signal on the 4-hour chart before looking for new entry opportunities on the 1-hour chart to short gold.
The targets for new positions remain unchanged:
**TP1:** 3025
**TP2:** 3005
**TP3:** 2989
On the daily chart, the closing of gold on Friday can provide direct guidance for next week's trend. If gold forms a new daily reversal signal on the daily chart, trading in the first half of next week can proceed with minimal interference, trending downward.
If gold experiences significant fluctuations during tonight's US session, it is recommended to wait until next Monday to enter, still opting for a strategy of buying high and selling low in the fluctuating market at the top of gold.
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**I. Three Major Drivers of Gold Fluctuations**
1. **Trump's "Face-Changing Game"**
- **Tariff Bomb:** Trump announced plans to impose retaliatory tariffs on countries like China (effective April 2), which is like throwing a bomb into the market. Concerns about a trade war resurfacing, rising business costs, and potential economic recession emerged.
- **Interest Rate Cut Talk:** Previously, Trump said, "There's no rush to cut rates," but now he has changed his tune to "We need to cut rates quickly to save the economy." The market reacted negatively: Oh no, the economy might be in big trouble! Consequently, funds shifted from the stock market to gold for safety.
2. **"Nuclear Option Expiration" in the Options Market**
- **$4.7 Trillion Bet Expiration:** This amount is equivalent to the total market value of the top 20 companies globally, and it’s settling today.
- **Market Manipulation:** Large institutions (market makers) have an incentive to push the S&P 500 index near 5800 points, as this level maximizes their options contracts' profitability. Gold and U.S. stocks often move inversely; when the stock market is manipulated, gold may suddenly surge or plummet.
3. **"Hawkish Shock" from the Federal Reserve**
- **Officials Changing Stance:** Initially, there was one dissenting voice against an interest rate cut; now it has turned into four.
- **Gold's Calculation:** A delayed rate cut → stronger dollar → temporary pressure on gold; but poor economic conditions → panic sentiment → gold benefits. These two forces are in conflict.
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**II. How Will Gold Move Tonight?**
**Key Levels:**
- **Floor Price:** $3034 (If it falls below this, it may continue to drop)
- **Ceiling Price:** $3056 (If it breaks above this, it may surge to $3080)
**Trading Suggestions:**
1. **Watch and Wait Mode:** The period between 2 PM and 4 PM (Eastern Time) will see the most volatility, so avoid making hasty moves.
2. **Buy in Batches:** If it drops to around $3040, buy 1/3 of your position; add more if it breaks above $3060.
3. **Exit Signal:** If the U.S. stock market suddenly spikes (especially if the S&P approaches 5800), gold could drop by 2% instantly.
If you prefer not to stay up late, you can skip trading tonight, maintain a flat position, and look for opportunities on Monday!
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**III. Grandpa Munger's Survival Guide**
- **Being Flat is a Superpower:** Just like in poker, if you find your hand is bad, fold and don’t call.
- **Wait for Clear Signals:** Gold is currently in a "Schrödinger's state" (it could rise or fall); it’s better to wait for it to break above $3056 or drop below $3034 before taking action.
- **Historical Lesson:** On the options expiration day in September 2023, gold fluctuated by $100 in one day, leading to numerous liquidations. Today may very well replicate that scenario.
GOOD LUCK!
LESS IS MORE!
Gold changes and sells efficiently to stop profitGold, this round of price rebounded after selling 2832 from 2956, and continued to rise at the beginning of the week after breaking through and stabilizing 2956; it rose to 3057 and then fell after the Fed’s interest rate decision, and the evening analysis emphasized that the 2H structure has weakened; at the same time, the current price is running on the upper track of large cycles such as day, week, and month, there is a demand for covering, and the market habitually changes on Thursday, so it is necessary to pay attention to the risk of selling;
Gold 1H Intra-Day Chart 19.03.2025Our $3,035 buy target has been hit. So what's next?
Option 1: Gold drops lower towards $3,020 before pushing back up again.
Option 2: Gold pushes higher towards $3,042 before it DROPS lower.
Which option do you agree with more?
Gold Analysis – March 19, 2025Gold Analysis – March 19, 2025 ✨📈
Gold continues its upward movement after closing a full daily candle above 3030, pushing the price to 3045 so far. Will gold maintain its momentum and break higher, or is a correction coming soon? 🤔
🔹 Bullish Scenario:
✅ Holding above 3050 on a 4-hour candle will reinforce the bullish trend towards 3070/3075.
✅ A breakout above 3090 could drive gold towards 3115 and 3140! 🚀
✅ The RSI indicator still shows positive momentum—will it push prices even higher? 🔥
🔹 Corrective Scenario:
❌ If gold fails to hold above 3050 and falls below 3030, could we see a correction towards 3005? 📉
❌ A daily close below 3005 might push gold down to 2980/2965—a key support zone!
❌ RSI may signal a slowdown—are we due for a pullback before another rally? 😯
🔍 Conclusion:
🔹 Holding above 3050: Supports further upside towards 3070/3075 and possibly 3090! 📊
🔹 Breaking below 3005: Could trigger a move towards 2980/2965 before any potential rebound.
🔹 Will today’s close confirm the bullish breakout, or are we looking at a correction first? 🤨📌
📢 What do you think? Will gold hit 3090 before correcting, or is a pullback imminent? 👀🚀
XAUMO REPORT
Gold is in a clear institutional buying wave. Any pullback to 3,020 is a buying opportunity. The level 3,057 is the key to breaking higher toward 3,128. Below 2,979, the entire picture reverses.
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Overall Trend: Strong Bullish (across all timeframes)
• Institutional buyers are fully in control from levels 2,979 – 3,020
• Weekly and monthly VWAPs are below current price = market is trading in a “premium zone”
• Momentum (RSI & DI+) is very strong but in overbought territory, which may cause short-term pullbacks
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Critical Zones (Locked Levels)
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Scenarios
Likely Bullish Scenario:
As long as price stays above 3,020 – 3,024
→ Targets: 3,047 → 3,057 → 3,079 → 3,128
Conditional Bearish Scenario:
A clear and confirmed break below 3,013
→ Drop toward 2,979 to retest the monthly fair value
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Gold (XAU/USD) Trade Recommendation for Monday – Based on Multi-Timeframe FVPR Analysis
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Buy Setup – Monday, March 24, 2025
Entry:
3,020 – 3,024 (Fair Value Zone + VWAP + POC)
Stop Loss (SL):
2,999 (Below institutional support + structural invalidation)
Take Profit Targets (TP):
• TP1: 3,036 (Initial intraday supply)
• TP2: 3,057 (Previous high + liquidity pocket)
• TP3: 3,079 – 3,128 (Fibonacci extension + quarterly target)
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Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RR):
R:R ≈ 1:3 to 1:4.5 — Low risk, high probability setup based on alignment across monthly, weekly, and daily charts
Note:
Stay above 3,020 = bullish scenario valid.
Break below 2,999 = immediate trade invalidation.
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Bearish Reversal Scenario (If Trend Breaks)
Signal:
Clear break and hold below 2,999
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Sell Setup – If Reversal Confirmed
Entry:
2,993 – 2,999 (Retest of broken support as resistance)
Stop Loss (SL):
3,020 (Back above fair value = setup invalid)
Take Profit Targets (TP):
• TP1: 2,979 (Monthly VWAP)
• TP2: 2,961 (OB demand zone)
• TP3: 2,944 – 2,915 (Quarterly demand + value zone)
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Technical Logic
• A break below 2,999 indicates institutional distribution
• Loss of VWAP + volume drop = fair value rejection
• Market will likely target untouched demand zones in prior lows
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Alternate Strategy Summary
If price > 3,020 Buy → Targets: 3,057 – 3,128
If price < 2,999 Sell → Targets: 2,961 – 2,915
Gold (XAU/USD) Trading Setup – Short Opportunity with Key Target📌 Chart Overview
This is a 1-hour (H1) candlestick chart of XAU/USD (Gold to US Dollar), displaying a potential short (sell) trading setup. The price action suggests that gold is testing a strong resistance zone, and if it gets rejected, a bearish move could follow. The chart includes key technical elements like trendlines, support/resistance levels, and take-profit (TP) zones.
🛠️ Technical Breakdown
1️⃣ Uptrend and Resistance Test
Gold has been in a strong uptrend, as seen from the ascending trendline supporting price movements since March 14.
The price is currently testing a major resistance zone around the ATH (All-Time High) + Resistance Level (~$3,057-$3,072).
A rejection from this level would indicate a potential trend reversal or pullback before any further bullish continuation.
2️⃣ Sell Stop Placement – Waiting for Confirmation
Instead of entering a trade immediately, a Sell Stop order is placed below the trendline.
This means the trade will only activate if the price breaks down from the trendline support, confirming bearish momentum.
3️⃣ Target Levels (Take Profit Zones)
Once the sell trade is activated, the price is expected to move toward the following TP (Take Profit) zones:
TP 1 (~$3,045) – First minor support; price might pause or bounce briefly.
TP 2 (~$3,037-$3,040) – A stronger support zone, where profit can be partially secured.
TP 3 (~$3,029-$3,028) – The final target, aligning with a significant support level. This is the most crucial zone where price could reverse or consolidate.
4️⃣ Support Zone and Potential Bounce
The green-shaded area represents a strong support level (~$3,028-$3,030), previously tested in past price action.
If the price reaches this area, buyers might step in, potentially pushing gold back up.
📉 Trade Execution Plan
✔️ Entry: Below the trendline, activated by the Sell Stop order.
✔️ Stop Loss: Above the resistance level (~$3,072) to limit risk.
✔️ Profit Targets: TP1, TP2, and TP3 (scaling out profits).
✔️ Confirmation Factors: Rejection from resistance, trendline breakdown, and bearish momentum indicators.
🔎 Final Thoughts & Market Sentiment
If price fails to break the trendline, gold might continue its bullish run toward new highs.
If the breakdown occurs as anticipated, a strong short trade opportunity is present.
Always monitor fundamental factors (like economic data and news) that could impact gold prices.
Risk Management Tip: Use proper position sizing and a trailing stop to lock in profits if the trade moves in favor. ✅
📊 Conclusion : A well-structured short setup, with a solid risk-reward ratio and defined execution plan. Happy trading! 🚀📉
Gold looking target at $3,060 - $3,100Cross check MACD histogram reversed up, will break resistance 3040 target 🎯 $3060 - $3100
Next setup for bearish indications XAUUSD GOLD update | M30 Timeframe 🙌
With Aspect or Technical Analysis
- We are observing and deicide that Market bias is a Bearish
- We can avail our Sell opportunities from 3020 - 3022.00 levels ❗️
- Targets would be set according to charts 3005 if break then 2993.00 forthermore 2982.00 💡
XAUUSD TRADE SETUPMarket trend line is broken and retest the key level so wait for wick rejection and bearish momentum then take a trade for Sell otherwise skip this setup
1HOUR XAUUSD HEAD SHOULDERS FORMATION WHICH IS A BEARISH REVERSL
the previous trend was bullish high in blue with an upward channel.
after forming the head and shoulder,a bearish move is exected,as shown is downwards arrows.
price is projected to break below the nickline and hit the lower target zone
TREND LINE BREAKOUT AND RETEST FOR BULLISH MOVE ALERT!Hey Trader
Congratulation all trader for new ATH 3038
THERE is OB in H1 and market is near to break trend line zone and goes for sell for hunting some liquidity from 3015 area.
Now trend is BUll so we just scalp in sell for long term GOLD bull move is going to the moon and month prediction is 3200.
TARGET AREA FOR BULL 3039 AND 3060.
follow risk management
GOLD, XAUUSDTHIS ANALYSIS FOR "XAUUSD , GOLD" ON MULTIPLE TIME FRAME.
- What i can see on Gold right now price wanna make a big retreacement on daily time frame as we can see DXY already make clear breakout resistance on time frame 4 hour, possible now its time for DXY make a retracement.
- If trendline 1 hour and 1 hour S.S.R zone breakout just wait price comeback into this zone then we can SELL
- Or we can find opportunity on SELL ZONE 1
- If price make Sell desicon point on sell zone 2 please hold the position a bit far
- But if price break Sell zone 2 and minor resistance we just focus Buy
#TradeWhatYouSeeNotWhatYouThink
All the best !!!
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XAUUSD LONGS IDEAOk, this is a little tricky bcoz I'm not strongly biased in what direction Gold will take.
This is what I'm precipitating though: Buy trend to continue upto 4h BSL
Now, what makes me a little nervous is that the market has grabbed buy-side liquidity above the high of today and I don't know how low it would melt
Any trade comments are appreciated
XAUUSD 4HGold; has reached the upper boundary of its long-term ascending channel. In previous instances, we have witnessed significant declines after touching this resistance level. Now, we have to see whether the same scenario will unfold this time.
XAUUSD-(Gold head $ Shoulder Pattern will fall)Please just But at that low instead with Better RRR..ENJOY!!
XAUUSD H1 : Drop is coming!"By analyzing the one-hour structure of gold, I think the price will touch the FVG H1 at $3040 and then start dropping, sweeping the liquidity of the lows."
3.20 Focus on the long and short battle of the Federal Reserve!!On Wednesday (March 19), the spot gold price continued to fluctuate at a high level during the Asian and European sessions, hitting a record high of $3,045/ounce during the session, and then fell slightly to around $3,029. The market focus is highly concentrated on the upcoming Fed's March interest rate decision.
Fundamentals: 1. The struggle between risk aversion demand and policy expectations
2. Rising geopolitical risk premiums
3. Trump's tariff remarks sparked concerns about economic recession
4. Fed policy expectations dominate short-term fluctuations
Technical aspects: Long and short game in high-level fluctuations
4-hour structure chart:
Bollinger Band pattern: upper track 3044.86, middle track 3031.24, lower track 3017.63, the current quote 3030.49 is close to the middle track, indicating a short-term balance of long and short forces. If the price stands firm on the middle track, it is expected to test the upper track (3044) again; if it falls below the middle track, it may seek support from the lower track (3017)
Moving average support: The 100-day moving average (2928.75) and the 200-day moving average (2903.27) form a long-term support band, and the price difference with the current quotation exceeds US$100, further verifying that gold is in a strong cycle.
Resistance level: 3050 3080 3100
Support level: 3018 3000 2980
XAU/USD Today - Will It Continue Falling?🔔🔔🔔 Gols news:
👉Gold prices continued to decline early Tuesday, though they remained above the $3,000 level. Reports indicate that Trump's tariffs will be narrower and less sentient than initially feared, while the recent recovery of the U.S. dollar from multi-month lows and optimism about a potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine have weakened XAU/USD. The daily chart for XAU/USD shows the pair under pressure for the third consecutive day, although the decline still appears to be a corrective movement.
👉Meanwhile, U.S. economic data has been largely positive. S&P Global released preliminary estimates for the March Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), stating that U.S. business activity growth accelerated in March as a strong expansion in the services sector offset a fresh decline in manufacturing output. The composite PMI improved to 53.5 from 51.6 in February.
Personal analysis:
👉Gold will maintain its downward trend in the short term due to positive news from the USD.
👉Technically, DXY's daily RSI shows signs of recovery after entering the oversold zone.
👉Analysis based on important resistance - support and Fibonacci levels combined with trend lines and EMA to come up with a suitable strategy
Support zone: 3000 - 2.984 - 2.971
Resistance zone: 3.025 - 3.033 - 3.047
Plan:
🔆 Price Zone Setup:
👉Sell Gold 3023- 3025(Scalping)
❌SL: 3029 | ✅TP: 3018 – 3013 – 3007
👉Sell Gold 3038- 3040
❌SL: 3044 | ✅TP: 3033 – 3028 – 3023
👉Buy Gold 2999 - 3002 (Scalping)
❌SL: 2995 | ✅TP: 3006 – 3011 – 3016
👉Buy Gold 2982- 2984
❌SL: 2978 | ✅TP: 2989 – 2994 – 3000
FM wishes you a successful trading day 💰💰💰
Gold Blow-Off Top? Short Setup Building at All-Time HighsGold just broke into all-time highs above $3,000, and everyone’s celebrating… but that might be exactly the problem.
This kind of vertical rally after a long grind could be setting up for a classic fakeout or blow-off top. Price is going parabolic, and when that happens, gravity usually follows.
📉 Why I’m Eyeing a Short:
Price is extended far from key moving averages and long-term trendlines.
We’re seeing a steep, unsustainable move, similar to past tops (2011 vibes?).
No consolidation = no support below. If it breaks down, there’s air underneath.
Everyone's bullish. I love fading that.
🔻 Trade Plan:
Entry: If gold starts rejecting $3,050–$3,100 zone with heavy selling wicks
Stop loss: Just above the recent highs ~$3,120 (to avoid being squeezed)
Target 1: $2,950 (first support zone)
Target 2: $2,800 (major support / prior breakout area)
⚠️ Risk:
This is a counter-trend trade, so timing is everything
If momentum continues, don’t fight it — wait for a clear rejection or breakdown
XAU/USD For Bullishwait for pull-back near by entry point and then go long
general trend is up trend
have fun :)
