Gold Slips in London – $3,296 Incoming?📉 XAUUSD 1H Bearish Analysis – July 17, 2025
Gold (XAUUSD) is showing clear signs of bearish momentum on the 1-hour chart. After forming a local high around the $3,346–$3,347 region, price was sharply rejected and has since maintained a lower high structure. This rejection came right after the London session began, confirming that institutional volume is likely favoring the downside for now.
The previous few sessions show multiple failed attempts to break above the $3,346–$3,365 range. Sellers are consistently stepping in near those zones, marking a strong supply area. Meanwhile, recent candles have broken below the intraday support around $3,327.74, showing bearish continuation is underway.
Session activity is also in favor of the bears. The current London session opened weak, following a failure to hold above the previous session highs. Typically, gold experiences volatility during London and New York overlaps, and given the current structure, the pressure seems tilted to the downside.
From a broader perspective, the lower highs and lower lows on the 1-hour chart confirm a short-term downtrend. Price is now hovering just above $3,319 support—if this level is taken out cleanly with volume, it opens the path to deeper targets.
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📌 Trading Setup (Short Bias)
• Entry: $3,327.74 (breakdown zone)
• Stop-loss: $3,346.29 (above last supply rejection)
• Take-Profit 1: $3,319.69
• Take-Profit 2: $3,311.62
• Take-Profit 3: $3,296.28
• Take-Profit 4 (extended): $3,282.66
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If price manages to hold below $3,328 with consecutive rejections on any pullback, this bearish thesis remains valid. A breakdown below $3,311 would likely trigger momentum-driven selling toward $3,296 and potentially $3,282. However, any 1H close back above $3,346 would invalidate the current setup and favor a temporary bullish retracement.
XAUUSD trade ideas
Gold - 1 Hour Analysis (Long)After a series of dump , now we are seeing some bullish pattern. The most recent candle failed to close above 3375 , therefore I am anticipating the price will be targeting the SSL to continue higher.
I am anticipating that the price will move to the 4H OB , and I will be looking for bullish confirmation to enter the trade. Price may not reach to my target after mitigating the 4H OB , therefore manage the trade properly.
How I will take the trade?
If price is respecting the 4H OB , I will be taking multiple trades. For example , 1:2 or 1:3 along the way until it reach to my target. I will not be holding through the whole process.
Gold (XAUUSD) at Decision Point – Watch $3,320 Closely! Technical Analysis – 4H Chart
Gold is trading within a rising channel, but momentum is weakening. The current price action is testing the lower channel support around $3,320 — a critical level for the next directional move.
🟥 Bearish Scenario:
Break & close below $3,320 could confirm channel breakdown
Target: $3,219 support zone
Bearish engulfing seen on higher timeframe adds pressure
🟩 Bullish Scenario:
If $3,320 holds as support and price bounces back:
Possible move toward upper channel resistance around $3,401
🌍 Fundamental Outlook
Recent CPI data was soft, but no strong bullish push yet
Focus on upcoming U.S. economic releases (employment, PMI, retail sales)
Strong data = Hawkish Fed = Bearish for Gold
Weak data = Dovish Fed = Bullish for Gold
XAU/USD 1H – Bullish Breakout in Play | Eyes on 3,400+XAU/USD has officially broken out of a falling wedge pattern, triggering a classic bullish continuation setup. The rejection off the 0.618–0.705 fib retracement zone ($3,280–$3,290) acted as a powerful launchpad, pushing price above the mid-structure confluence and EMAs.
✅ Key Technical Highlights:
Structure Break: Clear bullish breakout from descending wedge + EMA crossover confirmation (20/50 over 200).
Fibonacci Anchors: Price respected the golden pocket (0.618–0.705), now aiming for full fib extension targets.
Targets:
🎯 TP1: 3,397 (-0.27 fib)
🎯 TP2: 3,440 (-0.618 fib / upper wedge trend-line resistance)
Support Zone: 3,304 – 3,319 (0.5–0.382 fib zone), now acting as fresh demand area.
RSI: Rebounding from 50 with momentum, no divergence, suggesting room for continuation.
🔔 Bullish Scenario:
As long as price holds above the breakout retest zone (≈3,336), momentum favors the bulls with high probability toward 3,400+. Clean higher highs and higher lows confirm trend alignment.
⚠️ Invalidation Level:
Break and close back below 3,304 would shift this from breakout to fakeout — watch for bearish pressure toward 3,280 if that occurs.
📌 Wright Way Outlook:
Momentum is on the side of the bulls. With fundamentals aligned and structure broken, this setup favors precision swing entries with clean RR.
Stay patient, stay tactical. Trade the Wright Way.
Gold Rises Again Above $3,300Today's session marked a new upward move for gold, with gains of more than 1%, pushing prices above the key $3,300 per ounce level. For now, the bullish bias has remained firm shortly after reports suggested that the U.S. government may be preparing to move away from the current Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, mainly due to the Fed’s failure to deliver on the administration's broader expectation of cutting interest rates in the short term. This development has increased political risk in the United States and has led gold to act once again as a safe-haven asset in the short term.
Sideways Range Remains Active
Despite the recent rebound in gold prices, a consolidated sideways range continues to dominate, with resistance marked around the $3,400 level and support near $3,200 per ounce. Although recent fluctuations have not yet been enough to break out of the channel, they have shown a steady increase in buying pressure that, if sustained, could lead gold to retest its recent highs.
Indicators Still Show Neutral Bias
At the moment, the RSI indicator remains close to the neutral line of 50, and the TRIX indicator is also moving sideways near the zero level. Both signals suggest that recent price momentum and the average strength in moving averages are starting to stabilize, pointing to a lack of clear direction. Unless the indicators begin to show signs of a momentum shift, the sideways channel is likely to remain in place and could serve as a key catalyst for maintaining the market’s neutral sentiment in the near term.
Key Levels to Watch:
$3,400 – This remains the level of historic highs in gold. A breakout above this area could reactivate a strong bullish bias, potentially paving the way for a more sustained uptrend in the short term.
$3,300 – This is the current barrier, aligned with the 50-period simple moving average, and may serve as an important pivot point. If price action stays above this level, buying pressure could begin to gain more traction in the gold market in the short term.
$3,200 – This remains a key support level, acting as the most critical reference point for selling activity in recent weeks. A move back toward this level could trigger the start of a new bearish trend.
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
Gold Analysis and Trading Strategy | July 16✅ Fundamental Analysis
The U.S. Dollar Index has risen for four consecutive trading days, reaching a high of 98.70, which continues to weigh on gold prices denominated in dollars. Recently, the Trump administration imposed a 30% tariff on goods from the European Union and Mexico, and plans to issue tariff notices to Indonesia (19%) and several other “smaller countries” (around 10%), triggering global trade tensions. Meanwhile, the ongoing escalation of the Russia–Ukraine conflict has increased safe-haven demand, providing some support for gold.
✅ Technical Analysis
Gold posted a long upper shadow bearish candlestick yesterday, indicating weak upward momentum and selling pressure near recent highs. The daily chart has shown multiple failures to break above previous highs, signaling fading bullish strength. Currently, price action remains in a high-level, low-volume consolidation, with both daily and weekly charts showing repetitive sideways movement and no clear breakout direction.
On the 4-hour chart, gold was rejected near the upper range at $3375 and fell sharply. After breaking below the mid-range support, the price found minor support near the lower band. The overall structure remains a wide-range consolidation, lacking sustained directional movement.
🔴 Key Resistance Levels: 3345–3350; if broken, gold may test the 3400 psychological level.
🟢 Key Support Levels: 3322–3330; if breached, prices could decline further toward 3300.
✅ Trading Strategy Reference
🔺 Long Position Strategy:
🔰If the price pulls back to below the $3325–$3330 zone and shows signs of support, consider entering a light long position. Set a stop-loss below $3310, targeting $3340–$3350–$3360.
🔻 Short Position Strategy:
🔰If the price rebounds to the $3344–$3350 resistance zone and stalls, consider shorting on strength. Set a stop-loss above $3355, with targets at $3320, $3310, and $3300.
✅ Risk Warning
The U.S. PPI data will be released today. If the data significantly exceeds expectations and inflationary pressures rise, gold may come under renewed selling pressure and potentially break below the key $3300 support level. Conversely, if the data is moderate, it could ease market concerns and help stabilize gold prices.
Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD July 16, 2025🔄 Momentum Analysis
D1 timeframe: Momentum is currently reversing to the downside, suggesting that the price may continue to decline or move sideways in the short term.
H4 timeframe: Momentum is rising, indicating that the current recovery may continue. The next resistance zones to watch are 3342 and 3358.
🌀 Elliott Wave Structure
At present, price action is being compressed within a contracting triangle corrective pattern, with its range narrowing further—signaling market consolidation. We should closely monitor for signs of a breakout that could end this correction.
Based on the current wave structure, it is expected that wave d (green) has completed, and the current downward move is likely part of wave e (green).
The trading strategy focuses on waiting for the price to approach the lower boundary of the triangle—drawn from the low of wave a to the low of wave c—looking for confluent support areas near this trendline to identify a potential BUY opportunity.
🎯 Target & Trade Plan
BUY ZONE: 3303 – 3300
Stop Loss (SL): 3290
Take Profits (TP):
- TP1: 3327
- TP2: 3358
- TP3: 3402
As risk aversion wavers, will gold rise or fall?
💡Message Strategy
After falling for two consecutive days, gold (XAU/USD) rebounded slightly in the Asian session on Wednesday, stabilizing above $3,320, attracting some bargain-hunting buyers. The market has paid close attention to the tariff policy that US President Trump continues to increase, and the rising risk aversion has become the core factor supporting gold prices.
The US CPI data for June showed that overall prices rose by 0.3% month-on-month, the largest increase in five months, and the core CPI rose to 2.9% year-on-year, both higher than expected. This has caused the market to worry that tariffs are gradually pushing up inflation, prompting the Federal Reserve to extend the high interest rate policy cycle.
📊Technical aspects
The current trend of gold is constrained by both fundamentals and technical factors.
On the one hand, Trump's tariff policy has pushed up inflation expectations, triggering risk aversion and rethinking of the Fed's policy path, providing support for gold;
On the other hand, the Fed's tone of "maintaining high interest rates for longer" has limited the room for gold prices to rebound.
From the 4-hour chart, gold prices found support near the 100-period SMA (about $3,320) on Tuesday, stopping the decline from the three-week high. In the short term, if it can stand above the 3340-3345 resistance band, it may test the 3365-3370 area again, and the further target is the 3400-dollar round mark.
💰Strategy Package
Long Position:3320-3330,SL:3305,Target: 3365-3370
BUY XAUUSD 16.7.2025Trend Resumption at H1: BUY at M15
Type of order: Limit order
Reason:
- The price brokeout the sub key of M15, confirming the uptrend into main key M15.
Note:
- Management of money carefully at the price of sub key M15 (3335)
Set up entry:
- Entry buy at 3325
- SL at 3319
- TP1: 3335
- TP2: 3347
Trading Method: Price action (No indicator, only trend and candles)
GOLD BUY M15 Gold (XAU/USD) 15-Min Chart Analysis – July 15, 2025
The price is currently trading around 3,352, having recently shown a Change of Character (CHoCH) indicating a potential bullish reversal. After a drop from the recent highs, price is now approaching a highlighted demand zone (purple box) between approximately 3,342 – 3,349, which could act as a strong support area.
Trade Setup:
Buy Zone: Inside the purple demand zone (approx. 3,342 – 3,349)
Stop Loss (SL): 3,342
Target (TP): 3,365
Key Levels:
Resistance Levels:
3,355
3,360
3,365 (Target)
3,370 (Potential extension)
Support Levels:
3,349
3,342 (Stop Loss)
3,341 (Strong Low zone)
Expectation:
If price reacts positively from the demand zone and holds above the support, we can expect a bullish move towards the target of 3,365, breaking through intermediate resistance levels.
Daily gold analysisDaily gold analysis
Sell trade with target and stop loss as shown in the chart
The trend is down and we may see more drop in the coming period in the medium term
All the best, I hope for your participation in the analysis, and for any inquiries, please send in the comments.
He gave a signal from the strongest areas of entry, special recommendations, with a success rate of 95%, for any inquiry or request for analysis, contact me
GOLD Intraday Chart Update For 15 July 2025Hello Traders,
Welcome to the US CPI Day, as you can see that market is in tight range for now and all eyes on the breakout for now
Only clear breakout of 3380 we will consider market will be bullish towards 3400 & 3425
If markets sustains below 3335 it will move towards 3305 or even 3285
All eyes on US CPI
Disclaimer: Forex is Risky
Big Week for Markets: U.S. CPI Tomorrow – What It Means for GoldThis week is packed with news, but the main focus is the U.S. CPI report dropping tomorrow.
🗓 Key Event: U.S. CPI Report
📍 July 15, 2025 | 12:30 p.m. UTC
The CPI report measures inflation and heavily influences the Fed’s rate decisions. Last month’s CPI came in at 2.4% vs. 2.5% expected, following 2.3% vs. 2.4% in April. While it seems inflation is rising, the bigger picture shows stable annual inflation in the 2.3%–3.0% range, keeping things under control—likely the reason Trump is pressuring Powell to cut rates.
Market expects June CPI to be 2.7%.
🤔 Possible Scenarios:
1️⃣ CPI > 2.7%: Bullish for DXY 📈. The stronger the print, the bigger the spike, but I see this scenario as less probable.
2️⃣ CPI < 2.7%: Bearish for DXY 📉. We may see a USD dump, though likely shallow since CPI could still be higher than previous months.
✨ What About Gold?
I don’t expect a major reaction in gold:
✅ Higher CPI? Gold often benefits as an inflation hedge.
✅ Lower CPI? Also supportive for gold as it weighs on the USD.
🔍 Technical Outlook:
Gold has been trading within a triangle since April 22, forming lower highs and higher lows. We may currently be in Wave D (Elliott Wave), aiming toward the triangle’s upper boundary slightly above $3,400 resistance. After that, Wave E may develop – but that’s a story for another post.
GOLD: Long Signal Explained
GOLD
- Classic bullish formation
- Our team expects growth
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Buy GOLD
Entry Level - 3352.0
Sl - 3346.8
Tp - 3362.4
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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Gold Approaches New Resistance – Potential Short-Term Pullback📊 Market Update
Gold is currently trading around $3,368–$3,370/oz, up approximately 0.5% today, supported by a weaker USD and slightly declining US Treasury yields. This comes amid global trade concerns and expectations that the Fed may adjust policy in upcoming meetings.
📉 Technical Analysis
•Key Resistance: $3,375–$3,380 (pivot R2: $3,374.9, R3: $3,389.6)
•Nearest Support: $3,360 (S1: $3,335.8)
•EMA: Price is trading above the EMA9 / EMA20 / EMA50 / EMA200, confirming a strong uptrend
•Candlestick / Volume / Momentum:
o MACD & ADX still confirm strong bullish momentum
o Price consolidating in a rectangle range of $3,352–$3,366 → watch for breakout or rejection at resistance
📌 Outlook
Gold may pull back slightly if it fails to break through the $3,375–$3,380 resistance area and RSI continues hovering near overbought levels.
💡 Suggested Trade Strategy
🔻 SELL XAU/USD at: $3,375–$3,380
🎯 TP: 40/80/200 pips
❌ SL: $3,385
🔺 BUY XAU/USD at: $3,345–$3,348
🎯 TP: 40/80/200 pips
❌ SL: $3,339