Gold Price Analysis June 13Yesterday's D1 candlestick increased, confirming the continuation of the uptrend. Following that uptrend, the Asian session saw a strong increase in price to the highest peak of 3443. If there is still confirmation from the h4 candlestick above 3395, today will still be a bullish candlestick with a large amplitude at the end of the day.
After reaching the highest peak of the month, Gold is having a downward correction at the end of the Asian session. This correction lasts until the support of 3397 to have a good BUY signal. In case you want to SELL, you must wait for a 50% test of the previous full-force downtrend H1 candle (around 3434) and the continuation of the Selling side.
If the 50% test does not appear, you must reverse to find a BUY Breakout point. Note that the False break at the peak of 3343 should wait for confirmation of the small-frame DOW wave to enter the order, which will be safer for this morning's break.
If you get a BUY order, the target will be 3364 and this area will have a profit-taking reaction from the Buyers, causing the price to decrease. Gold may touch the threshold before ATH 3394 and there will be a reaction.
In the opposite direction, there is a sweep to 3376, which is considered the daily support zone and you can buy in this area.
All SELL signals are considered obstacles, so set a short target and a new BUY signal sets a long expectation.
XAUUSD trade ideas
Stick to shorting gold and aim for the target area.Gold has not broken through 3400 after accelerating its rise, and the upper suppression effect still exists; currently gold is fluctuating in a narrow range below 3390, showing signs of stagflation to a certain extent. Therefore, the accelerated rise of gold is not for the short-term impact of 3400, but for a deep retracement, eliminating more scattered funds in the market by sweeping up and down.
So in the short term, I think it is difficult for gold to continue to break upward under the suppression of the resistance area near the short-term high of 3402, but to test the lower support area of 3375-3365 before breaking upward. So I have shorted gold as scheduled according to the short trading plan mentioned above, and aimed at the lower target area of 3375-3365.
At present, our short position has made a certain profit, but I still look forward to profiting from gold hitting TP! Let us look forward to gold falling back to the target area as expected!
BEST XAUUSD M30 BUY SETUP FOR TODAYGold (XAU/USD) is showcasing strong bullish momentum after breaking above the key resistance zone near $3,404, now acting as fresh support. 🔄 The price formed a bullish structure with clean higher highs and higher lows on the 30-minute chart, confirming buying strength. 🟣 The marked demand zone around $3,392–$3,404 is critical—if price retests and holds this level, we can expect a continuation toward $3,420 and beyond. 🚀📌 Traders should watch for bullish confirmations on pullbacks to this zone for potential long setups. 🧠⚡
XAUUSD Where are we in the Wyckoff cycle?We are between Phase B and Phase C of a potential Distribution on the higher range (around $3400.
Here's the breakdown:
Buying Climax (BC) and Automatic Reaction (AR) are well-formed.
We are now waiting for the confirmation of the Secondary Tests and also a potential Upthrust Actions near the top around $3400 area.
Next logical sweep target will be Buy-side liquidity above PDH area.
Possibly creating Secondary test for confirmation.
Then it should trigger a markdown phase.
If distribution fails, Smart Money would invalidate the entire range with a full Breakout + Retest + Continuation above 3,400 but low probability without more volume or wars.
Two scenarios here:
Bearish (Higher Probability)
Idea: Wait for a Secondary Test or Lower High around the resistance/POI near 3,390–3,396
Entry: Short on rejection or bearish M5 structure break after tagging that area
SL: Above 3,400 (or 30-40 pips above ST candle wick)
TP1 = 3377 (gap close)
TP2 = 3360 (Daily Gap)
TP3 = 3338 (PDL retest)
🟩 Bullish (Only if invalidation happens)
Idea: If we break above 3400 clean and hold on retest, it means Phase D of Accumulation started instead.
Entry: Long on retest of 3400 as support
SL: Below 3400
TP: Trail it...
Stay reactive around 3,390–3,396 for short opportunity only if price shows signs of failure there.
By the time it took me to post this idea the price has already move up 100 pips.
Trade safely!!
Iran tensions rise: a setup brewing for gold and oil Geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran might fuel safe-haven demand for gold.
A break above $3,403 might open the door for a test of the May high at $3,437. However, price action over the last two sessions potentially indicates that buyers are reluctant to drive spot prices above $3,400.
At the same time, analysts are suggesting that oil could climb toward $120 if Israel takes military action against Iran. “I don’t want to say it’s imminent, but it looks like something that could very well happen,” President Trump said during a White House event.
Meanwhile, cooler-than-expected US CPI and PPI prints have potentially strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve could begin cutting interest rates by September, with a second cut possibly following before year-end.
XAU/USD – Bullish Breakout & Wave 3 Expansion Imminent?Gold appears to have completed a corrective Elliott Wave structure (A)-(B)-(C) within a contracting wedge pattern, followed by a bullish breakout signaling the beginning of a new impulsive wave cycle.
🔹 Wave Structure Overview
The corrective decline formed a clear ABC correction inside a falling wedge, marked in red.
Following the final touch on the wedge's lower boundary, we saw a 5-wave impulsive breakout—suggesting the end of correction and initiation of a larger degree impulse wave.
Subwaves (1)-(2) appear to have completed in the new uptrend, with Wave (3) currently in motion.
🔹 Fibonacci Extension Targets for Wave (3)
Using the Fibonacci extension from the base of Wave (1)-(2):
1.13 Extension = $3,517
1.272 Extension = $3,551
1.414 Extension = $3,585
1.618 Extension = $3,635 (Primary target for Wave (3))
These are key resistance levels to watch as price progresses higher.
🟢 Bullish Scenario
A sustained break above recent resistance (~$3,345) should trigger momentum toward Wave (3)’s target range.
Price action and structure support a move toward $3,550–$3,635 in the coming days.
Minor pullbacks (Wave 4) expected before the final move into Wave 5 completion.
🔴 Bearish Invalidations
If price breaks below the current Wave (2) low (~$3,240), the bullish impulsive count may be invalidated.
Invalidation of the impulsive structure would imply either a deeper correction or re-entry into range-bound consolidation.
📌 Conclusion:
Gold is showing strong bullish momentum post-correction with a potential extended Wave (3) in progress. Breakout traders can look for continuation setups above $3,345 with targets at the Fibonacci extensions noted. Risk should be managed below Wave (2) low.
#XAUUSD #GoldAnalysis #ElliottWave #TradingView #Wave3Breakout #FibonacciTargets #GoldOutlook
Gold May Rebound After Monday Dip; Watch Tariffs & GeopoliticsGold may continue to decline before rebounding on Monday📉. The first support level is currently near 3,240-3,260. When approaching this support area, considering going long is advisable👍. It is still crucial to closely monitor the latest developments regarding U.S. tariffs and the situation in war-torn countries, as significant volatility may occur at any time⚠️. If a rebound reaches 3,350-3,360, considering going short is an option📉
⚡️⚡️⚡️ XAUUSD ⚡️⚡️⚡️
🚀 Buy@ 3250 - 3260
🚀 TP 3290 - 3310
🚀 Sell@ 3360 - 3240
🚀 TP 3310 - 3290
Accurate signals are updated every day 📈 If you encounter any problems during trading, these signals can serve as your reliable guide 🧭 Feel free to refer to them! I sincerely hope they'll be of great help to you 🌟 👇
GOLD: Strong Bearish Sentiment! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse GOLD together☺️
The price is near a wide key level
and the pair is approaching a significant decision level of 3,368.04 Therefore, a strong bearish reaction here could determine the next move down.We will watch for a confirmation candle, and then target the next key level of 3,359.44..Recommend Stop-loss is beyond the current level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
Gold-----sell near 3393, target 3380-3366Gold market analysis:
Yesterday, gold was basically a repeated shock, the K line was repaired at one position, and buying and selling were back and forth around the M side of the suppression platform 3405. Yesterday, our analysis was completely in line with our expectations. Yesterday, we also repeatedly arranged 5 sell orders, arranging 3382 break sell, 3387 sell, 3393 sell, 3382 sell, 3377 sell. Today's idea is to continue selling. The daily line cannot determine the bottom of this wave of decline. There are data in European and American time today. I think we can rely on the 3405 platform to be bearish before the data. If 3405 breaks, we adjust our thinking to be bullish. Otherwise, we can sell repeatedly. Gold is oscillating in the short term. Try not to chase it and wait for it to rebound and suppress the position to sell. In addition, the daily moving average suppression position of the moving average is 3396-3363, which is also the main reason for its repeated game at this position. The weekly buying momentum is not dead yet. Be cautious of its rocket in the second half of the week.
In today's Asian session, we will first focus on the suppression of 3395. The risk of taking more is relatively large. The low point below is not stable. The Asian session fell to 3370 and rebounded quickly. From the perspective of the pattern, 3372-3366 is the support. The suppression position of the 1H hourly moving average is near 3395. Yesterday's US session rebounded at around 3396, and the hourly K suppression position was 3400. All the above are suppressed. In addition, the opening position today is also near 3393.
Pressure 3393, 3400, 3405, support 3382, 3370, and the watershed of strength and weakness in the market is 3382.
Fundamental analysis:
In the previous fundamentals, we have been paying attention to geopolitical factors. The situation in the Middle East has indeed changed the way gold and crude oil are traded. Today we focus on the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, and there is also a speech by Chairman Powell during the US session.
Operation suggestions:
Gold-----sell near 3393, target 3380-3366
Golden investment opportunity emerges!Market news:
In the early Asian session on Wednesday (June 18), spot gold fluctuated in a narrow range and is currently trading around $3,380 per ounce. As the "safe haven king" in the global financial market, international gold has shown resilience in bottoming out and rebounding under the dual drive of recent geopolitical and economic uncertainties. The rise in London gold prices is inseparable from the fueling of tensions in the Middle East. The conflict between Iran and Israel has entered its fifth day, and geopolitical risks continue to heat up, injecting strong momentum into safe-haven assets.Although geopolitical risks have pushed up the safe-haven demand for gold, the strong performance of the US dollar has significantly suppressed gold prices. Against the backdrop of escalating conflicts in the Middle East, the dollar's renewed support and the Federal Reserve's cautious attitude have become important factors limiting the upward trend of international gold prices. Investors need to pay close attention to the Fed's policy guidance, the trend of the US dollar and the latest developments in the Middle East. In addition, the initial value of the annualized total number of US building permits in May and the annualized total number of US new home starts in May will also be released on this trading day, and investors also need to pay attention.
Technical Review:
Gold bottomed out and rebounded, and adjusted widely and fluctuated fiercely. The daily chart closed with a positive cross line, and the RSI indicator's central axis 50 value flattened. The price dropped to the MA10 daily average line of 3366 and rebounded sharply, reaching 3396 in the Asian session. The short-term four-hour chart moving average is glued together, and the RSI indicator's central axis is adjusted. The hourly chart Bollinger Bands are closed, and the moving averages are glued together. Technically, gold maintains a wide range of fluctuations and short-term participation.The intraday trend and the weekly chart's high point gradually move downward, which shows that the control of selling in the market is gradually increasing. Although the gold price failed to continue the buying trend at the beginning of the week, it does not mean that buying is completely dominant, especially before the announcement of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Thursday this week, the market still has strong uncertainty about the future trend!
Today's analysis:
After gold bottomed out, it began to fluctuate again, but the overall trend is still selling. The gold rebound is still under pressure at 3400 and began to fall back. In the short term, gold 3400 is still an important resistance. Gold continues to sell at high prices before it effectively breaks through 3400. Today’s market is once again blocked when it hits a high point. The current intraday high is around 3396. The market has been operating under the pressure of 3400 in the past two days, and there is no sign of the market standing above 3400. Therefore, the 3400 barrier is still an effective pressure point. As long as it does not break through and stabilize at 3400 today, the rebound is an opportunity for us to sell!
Operation ideas:
Short-term gold 3365-3370 buy, stop loss 3356, target 3390-3440;
Short-term gold 3390-3400 sell, stop loss 3408, target 3370-3350;
Key points:
First support level: 3363, second support level: 3346, third support level: 3333
First resistance level: 3400, second resistance level: 3408, third resistance level: 3420
Analysis of the latest gold market trend on June 18:
📌 News analysis
Expectations of the Fed's rate cut continue to affect the market
The market's expectations for the Fed's rate cut in 2025 have increased, the US dollar index remains weak, and gold has gained support.
Key points of attention: This week's Fed interest rate decision and Powell's speech, if dovish signals are released (such as hinting at a rate cut in September), gold may rebound; if hawkish (postponing the rate cut), gold prices may be further under pressure.
The situation in the Middle East has escalated, and risk aversion has increased
After Israel attacked Iran's state TV station, Iran threatened "the largest retaliation in history", and the fire on the tanker in the Strait of Hormuz has exacerbated geopolitical risks.
Potential impact: If the conflict expands (such as Iran blocking the Strait or directly counterattacking), gold may rise rapidly; if the situation eases (negotiation signals), safe-haven buying may weaken.
US economic data and market sentiment
If recent US economic data (such as retail sales and unemployment rate) are weak, it may strengthen expectations of rate cuts and benefit gold; if the data is strong, it may suppress gold prices.
📊 Technical Analysis
🔹 Daily level: Bearish, but key support needs to be paid attention to
Trend review: Gold price fell after a high rise at the beginning of the week, falling below the 3400 mark and closing with a large negative line, indicating that bears are dominant.
Key signals:
The 5-day moving average turned downward, suppressing the rebound of gold prices in the short term.
The Bollinger Bands closed, indicating that the market has entered a shock consolidation phase. If it falls below 3350, it may accelerate downward to 3300.
Support level: 3360-3350 (if it stabilizes, it may rebound); resistance level: 3400-3410 (if it breaks through, it may test 3450).
🔹 4-hour level: Bearish, but there may be a rebound correction in the short term
Short-term moving average suppression (5-day and 20-day moving averages are glued at 3404-3409) constitutes strong resistance.
MACD crosses, but Stoch is oversold, and may correct and rebound in the short term, but if it fails to break through 3400, it may continue to fall.
Key support: 3360-3350 (if it falls below, it may drop to 3330-3300).
🔹 1-hour level: Weak shock, pay attention to the rebound strength
MACD crosses and shrinks, Stoch moves downward, and it is still weak in the short term.
Upper pressure: 3412 (MA60+MA30), if it fails to break through, it may continue to fall.
🎯 Today's operation strategy
📉 Short-term trading ideas: short-selling on rebounds is the main method, and long-selling on pullbacks is the auxiliary method
✅ Short-selling opportunities (selling at highs):
Entry area: 3395-3405 (if the rebound is blocked)
Target: 3360-3350
Stop loss: above 3410
✅ Long opportunities (buy low):
Entry area: 3360-3350 (if it stabilizes and rebounds)
Target: 3380-3400
Stop loss: below 3345
⚠️ Key risk warnings:
Market volatility may intensify before the Fed's decision. It is recommended to operate with a light position and strictly stop loss.
If the situation in the Middle East deteriorates, it may trigger a rapid rise in gold. Pay attention to real-time news.
📌 Summary: Gold is short-term dominant, but the key support (3360-3350) still has the possibility of a rebound. In terms of trading, it is recommended to take high-short as the main idea and low-long as the auxiliary idea, focusing on the Federal Reserve’s decisions and geopolitical trends.
GOLD Unemployment Claims Data Context
Forecast: 246,000
Previous: 248,000
The weekly initial jobless claims report is a key indicator for the Federal Reserve, signaling the current state and momentum of the U.S. labor market.
Fed Interpretation: Greater Than Forecast
Indication: A figure above 246,000 suggests the labor market is softening more than expected.
Fed Response:
The Fed would view higher-than-forecast claims as a sign of rising layoffs and potential weakening in employment growth.
This outcome increases concern about the durability of the economic expansion and may raise the likelihood of future interest rate cuts, especially if the trend persists.
The Fed would likely emphasize caution in its policy statement and may signal greater willingness to ease policy if labor market weakness continues.
Fed Interpretation: Less Than Forecast
Indication: A figure below 246,000 signals a stronger-than-expected labor market.
Fed Response:
The Fed would interpret lower-than-forecast claims as evidence that the labor market remains resilient, with fewer layoffs and ongoing job creation.
This outcome reduces the urgency for immediate rate cuts and supports the case for holding rates steady, especially if inflation remains above target.
The Fed is likely to maintain a cautious, data-dependent stance, awaiting further evidence before considering policy changes.
Federal Funds Rate Decision Outlook
Expected Outcome:
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate steady at 4.25%–4.50% during the June 18, 2025 meeting.
Supporting Factors:
Inflation is moderating but remains above target.
Labor market data, including unemployment claims, shows stability without overheating.
Economic uncertainties, including trade policies, encourage a cautious approach.
Market Odds:
There is a near 100% probability of no rate change today, with markets focusing on the Fed’s forward guidance and economic projections for clues on future rate moves.
The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the current federal funds rate range of 4.25%–4.50%, reflecting a balanced approach amid moderating inflation and steady labor market conditions.
Market participants will closely watch the FOMC statement, economic projections, and press conference for any shifts in tone that could influence future rate expectations and market volatility.
XAUUSD H1 I Bearish Reversal Off the 50% FibBased on the H1 chart, the price is approaching our sell entry level at 3408.11, a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fib retracement.
Our take profit is set at 3375, an overlap support that aligns with the 50% Fib retracement.
The stop loss is set at 3441.66, a multi swing high resistance.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
gold on buy#XAUUSD price holds on 3398 for buy continuation.
Above 3398 will take bullish which will breakout 3406, entry 3398, SL 3384, TP 3406-3425.
If price breakout 3406 and H1 closes above there then bullish will continue till 3425, but reverse and closure below 3402 down will drop the price more.
XAUUSD Buy ForecastXAUUSD New Forecast👨💻👨💻
This is my personal trade and not in anyway a mandatory setup.
Note:
Follow proper risk management rules. Never risk more then 2% of your total capital. Money management is the key of success in this business...... Set your own SL & TP.
Please support this idea with a Like and COMMENT if you find it useful click "follow" on our profile if you will like these type of trading ideas delivered straight to your email in the future.
Thanks for your continued support!! lemme know your thoughts in the comment sec..
GOLD - Bearish Continuation Story : Market formed a BEARISH DIVERGENCE on 1H time frame and then divergence played well as we can see market broke the neckline (HL) and then continued series of LH and LL (Dow Theory) TRIPLE TOP kind of formation can also be seen before it continued bearish divergence
Anticipate : I anticipate that market will continue series of LH and LL as there is no bullish divergence and no sign of reversal pattern.
Plan: We take our entry on the break of LL which is 3380 level, and then we continued to target TP1 and TP2 with our 1:1 & 1:2 R:R ratio.
once pending order is triggered, out Stoploss is defined which is slightly above the defined LH 3410 level.
Dear Followers, Keep following and like- if you want more (simple) analysis like these