[ TimeLine ] Gold 19-20 May 2025Hello everyone,
📅 Today: Monday, May 19, 2025
📌 Upcoming Signal Dates:
• May 19, 2025 (Monday) – Candle still forming at the time of this post
• May 20, 2025 (Tuesday)
🧠 Trading Plan & Notes:
✅ Gold has experienced a sharp reversal of over 3,000 pips, dropping from 3435 to 3115
⚠️ The Hi-Lo range on May 19 is approximately 400 pips — this is relatively wide, so consider waiting for the May 20 confirmation or focus on reversal entries using Fibonacci levels
✅ I will be trading both signals as part of my ongoing research and strategy
⚠️ If you’re risk-averse or uncertain, it’s perfectly fine to skip the May 19 signal and instead observe the May 20 candle for a more informed setup
📋 Execution Plan:
🔹 Wait for the price range from the selected candles to fully form (marked by green lines on the chart)
🔹 Trigger entries upon breakout, with a 60-pip buffer
🔹 If the trade hits Stop Loss (SL), execute a cut-and-switch strategy, doubling the next valid entry size to recover
📉📈 Chart Reference:
🔗 TradingView URL Code: TV/x/vs1ieqLS/
XAUUSD trade ideas
Gold Rises on Tariff News, But Caution NeededGold prices surged after the U.S. President announced a 50% tariff on EU imports, triggering safe-haven demand. However, analysts warn that this may be a short-term FOMO reaction rather than the start of a sustainable rally.
📰 Key Drivers:
- The tariff announcement spooked markets, boosting gold temporarily.
- The U.S. dollar dipped slightly, but bond yields remain high – a bearish sign for gold.
- No immediate EU retaliation weakens the long-term bullish case.
🔍 Technical Outlook:
- Resistance: $3350 – being tested but not yet clearly broken.
- Support: $3310 – may be revisited if upward momentum fades.
- EMA 09: Price remains above, but fading volume and long upper wick suggest weakening strength.
- Price Action: Sharp move looks emotion-driven; correction likely if no follow-up catalyst appears.
📉 Short-Term View:
Despite the surge, gold’s rise may be temporary. If no escalation occurs, a short-term pullback is likely as markets reassess the impact.
💡 Suggested Trade Setup (Short-Term Bearish):
SELL XAU/USD at 3345 – 3350
🎯 TP: 3330
❌ SL: 3355
BUY XAU/USD at 3310 – 3312
🎯 TP: 3325 – 3327
❌ SL: 3305
Gold volatility intensifies before PCE data is released!
On Friday (May 30), gold continued to fall to $3,293. The focus of the day is the US PCE data, which may cause large fluctuations. In the morning, gold prices were under pressure at the 3,300 mark as the US dollar rebounded slightly - gold is negatively correlated with the US dollar, and a stronger US dollar suppresses demand. However, gold prices are still above this week's low, showing strong support. Fed policy and trade uncertainty dominate the market. On Thursday, the US Court of Appeals restored Trump-era tariff measures, exacerbating trade concerns and supporting gold prices. Several Fed officials said that if inflation falls, interest rates may be cut twice this year. Although the FOMC minutes show a wait-and-see attitude, the market still expects a rate cut - this uncertainty provides medium- and long-term support for gold.
The 1-hour gold chart shows that today's monthly, weekly and daily lines closed at the same time, and market volatility may increase after the release of PCE data. From a technical perspective, the situation of fierce competition between long and short positions requires the risk of a correction. In terms of operation, it is recommended to adopt a long-on-dip strategy, focusing on buying opportunities after a correction. The resistance level is 3335-3345, and the support level is 3280-3270. The specific suggestion is to consider placing long orders when the callback reaches 3280-3285 and stabilizes. This range deserves special attention.
Operation strategy:
Gold is recommended to buy in the callback to 3280-3285 area, with the target at 3310-3330, and hold if it breaks
Check the trend If a trend change occurs within the current support area, the start of an uptrend is likely. Then, depending on the price behavior within the resistance area, the continuation of the trend will be determined.
If the red support area is broken, the continuation of the downtrend is likely.
Don't define the price of gold
💡Message Strategy
The U.S. International Trade Court ruled that Trump's tariffs exceeded his authority. Once the ruling was made, market risk appetite quickly rebounded, driving global risk assets up and safe-haven assets such as gold came under selling pressure. The price of gold fell to $3,245 during the Asian trading session, hitting a 10-day low.
In addition to the weakening of risk aversion, the minutes of the Federal Reserve's May meeting reinforced the market's expectation that it would "maintain interest rates unchanged for a long time". In addition, the generally strong US economic data released this week caused the US dollar index (DXY) to return to the 100 mark, which put continued pressure on gold, a non-interest-bearing asset.
📊Technical aspects
Technically, gold price fell below the short-term rising trend line and the 200-period moving average of the 4-hour chart, and the short-term trend turned bearish. If it falls below the key support of $3,245 (50% Fibonacci retracement level), it may further point to $3,215 (61% retracement) or even $3,200 and $3,180. The upper rebound resistance is located at $3,300, $3,325 and $3,350 respectively.
From the daily chart, gold (XAU/USD) closed negative for the fourth consecutive day. The price has effectively fallen below the lower track of the short-term rising channel and continued to run below the 10-day and 15-day moving averages, indicating that the short-term momentum has weakened. The MACD fast and slow lines have a dead cross, and the green column is enlarged, further confirming the short signal.
Currently, the vicinity of $3245 is the support of the previous shock range. Once it is lost, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $3215 will be tested below, and even approach the psychological integer level of $3200.
If the gold price is supported in this area, it is expected to build a staged bottom; on the contrary, if it falls below $3200, it will look down to the $3150-3110 area. The short-term rebound needs to pay attention to the pressure level near $3300, which is also the dense intersection area of the previous moving averages. The overall structure suggests that the shorts are dominant.
💰 Strategy Package
Short Position:3310-3320,3340-3350
5/29 Gold Analysis and Trading SignalsGood morning everyone!
Yesterday, gold rose first and then declined. Our long positions targeting 3318–3326 were completed successfully, and we timely shifted to short positions, resulting in another round of solid profits.
📉 Technical Outlook:
Gold remains in a bearish trend, and is now very close to the 3275 support level. Based on the current price structure, a break below this level is highly probable.
If $3275 is breached, focus on key support at 3258–3238
Resistance levels to watch: 3298–3318
The daily (1D) chart is currently in an indicator correction phase, so today's trading bias is selling from higher levels
🗞 News Focus:
Watch for U.S. initial jobless claims data today. It may offer short-term support for gold, but is unlikely to reverse the broader bearish trend.
📈 Today’s Trade Plan:
📉 Sell in the 3316–3328 zone (resistance zone)
📈 Buy in the 3245–3232 zone (key support area)
🔁 Scalp/flexible trading levels:
3303 / 3288 / 3276 / 3258 / 3247
Stay adaptive and combine news with price action at key levels for best results.
Wishing everyone a successful and profitable trading day!
XAUUSD 30M CHART PATTERNThis chart is a 30-minute timeframe for CFDs on Gold (US$/OZ), showing a potential long (buy) trade setup with clearly defined risk and reward parameters:
Key Elements:
Entry Zone: Around the current price level (approx. 3,271.44).
Take Profit (TP): Targeted near 3,340.93, suggesting a bullish move toward previous highs.
Stop Loss (SL): Set just below 3,250.56, indicating a cutoff in case the price declines.
Observations:
Bullish Setup: The price has bounced from a recent low and shows a possible reversal pattern. This is further supported by the expected upward trajectory.
Risk/Reward Ratio: Visually, the TP zone is significantly larger than the SL zone, indicating a favorable risk/reward setup.
Market Context: The chart shows recent volatility with sharp moves, so risk management is critical.
Would you like help calculating the exact risk/reward ratio or analyzing whether this is a high-probability setup based on technical indicators or patterns?
XAUUSD – Holding the channel, eyeing a bounceGold is still trading within a rising channel, recently touching the confluence support zone of the trendline, the 89 EMA, and the demand area around 3,287. This level has seen strong reactions in the past – and if price holds here again, a bounce toward the 3,382 zone is highly likely.
Supporting factor: Market sentiment remains cautious after Moody’s emphasized the risks surrounding U.S. public debt, putting pressure on the USD and boosting gold’s appeal. In addition, investors are closely watching the upcoming U.S. Core PCE data later this week – a key factor that could influence Fed rate cut expectations.
Suggested scenario: Favor buying if the price holds above 3,287, targeting 3,382 – the upper boundary of the channel. If this fails, selling pressure may return.
Gold Price Action Analysis – Using MMC (Mirror Market Concepts) 🔍 Overview:
In this idea, we dive deep into XAU/USD's (Gold) short-term bearish move using a blend of Mirror Market Concepts (MMC) and Smart Money Concepts (SMC). The 15-minute chart provides an excellent visual of market psychology shifting, with CHoCHs, supply-demand zones, SR flips, and the Black Mind Curve highlighting the story of price.
🧩 Market Structure Breakdown:
🔵 1. Major Resistance Zone Formed
Price pushed aggressively upward but met strong rejection near the major resistance zone.
This zone acts as a ceiling for the bullish momentum—setting the first signal for a possible reversal.
🔵 2. Black Mind Curve Activated
A descending Black Mind Curve was plotted to reflect the psychological shift from bullish to bearish.
Price failed multiple times to break above this curve, highlighting strong internal weakness.
The Black Mind Curve visually reinforces the bearish tone and offers a roadmap for probable lower highs.
🔵 3. Minor Resistance + SR Interchange
As price dropped, it created a minor resistance.
When price returned to this area and rejected it, this confirmed an SR Flip (Support-Resistance Interchange)—a classic MMC feature.
Mirror Market Concepts suggest that old demand often mirrors into new supply. That's exactly what happens here.
🔵 4. Major CHoCH: Change of Character
A decisive break of the bullish structure signaled a Major CHoCH, confirming bearish order flow.
This is the moment smart money starts repositioning for shorts—liquidity has been grabbed above previous highs, and the direction shifts.
🔵 5. 50% Retracement
After the impulsive drop, price retraced nearly 50%—a key area of interest for MMC traders.
This level often acts as a decision point. In this case, price rejects the retracement, creating an ideal zone for re-entries.
🔵 6. Targeting the Demand Zone
The projected target lies in a prior demand zone, which mirrors earlier supply structure.
This aligns with MMC’s principle of "market reflection"—what was resistance becomes support again, and vice versa.
🎯 Trade Bias: Bearish
Entry Confirmation: After CHoCH + rejection from 50% level + re-alignment with Black Mind Curve.
SL: Just above the 50% retracement or last minor high.
TP: At the marked target zone near historical demand.
🧠 Why MMC Works Here:
MMC helps you see the market in reverse—where previous zones mirror and reflect. Combined with smart money triggers like CHoCHs, BOS, liquidity sweeps, and SR flips, this makes for a precise trading model that goes beyond basic support and resistance.
The beauty of MMC is that it reveals where the crowd is wrong and where the real momentum lies.
🔑 Key Takeaways for Traders:
The Black Mind Curve helps visualize hidden resistance paths.
CHoCHs are crucial in understanding market intent.
MMC allows traders to anticipate instead of react.
High probability setups form where multiple MMC/SMC elements converge.
Always wait for confirmation, not assumption.
Gold May Face Short-Term Correction at $3,350 Resistance📊 Market Overview:
- Gold is trading around $3,329/oz on May 27, after a slight decline due to President Donald Trump's postponement of the 50% tariffs on the EU until July 9, easing trade tensions.
- However, end-of-month USD selling pressure from portfolio rebalancing and concerns over U.S. debt continue to support gold prices.
📉 Technical Analysis:
- Key Resistance: $3,350
- Nearest Support: $3,295
- Candlestick Patterns / Volume / Momentum: The 14-day RSI is at 57, suggesting bullish momentum persists. However, price is testing strong resistance at $3,350. Failure to break through may lead to a pullback towards $3,295.
📌 Outlook:
Gold may experience a short-term pullback if it fails to break above the $3,350 resistance level and if market sentiment continues to be influenced by geopolitical and monetary policy factors.
💡 Suggested Trading Strategy:
SELL XAU/USD at: $3,345 – $3,350
🎯 TP: $3,330
❌ SL: $3,350
BUY XAU/USD at: $3,295
🎯 TP: $3,310
❌ SL: $3,390
XAUUSD Trade Outlook- TuesdayGold is currently sitting at a critical decision zone, testing the trendline and potential breaker structure after failing to break the Previous Day High (PDH) and reacting from Order Point (OP).
🔍 Key Observations:
Price rejected from PDH + OP zone with a clean bearish reaction.
Now sitting on a key ascending trendline and the Previous Day Low (PDL).
Structural Support Sweep (SSS) remains a major clue that downside may not be over.
If price confirms breakdown below PDL + Trendline, expect price to reach 3290, followed by 3270 and even Recent Broken Resistance zone near 3250.
📌 Bias: Bearish
📈 Trigger: Break and retest of trendline + PDL
📉 Target Zones:
– TP1: 3290
– TP2: 3270
– TP3: 3250
💡 Key Note for Chart Watchers:
Watch for fakeouts around 3330–3345. Confirmation comes only on solid 15min close below PDL and failure to reclaim OP zone.
🕰️ Let NY session provide final direction – this setup builds anticipation.
GOLD WILL GROW|LONG|
✅GOLD is trading along the rising support
And as it will soon retest the line
I am expecting the price to go up
To retest the supply levels above at 3,361$
LONG🚀
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
XAUUSD While the GBPJPY trade is still active, I’ve also spotted a new opportunity on XAUUSD and have entered a sell position. I'm sharing the trade here for traders who may want to take it as well.
🔍 Trade Details:
✔️ Timeframe: 15-Minute
✔️ Risk-to-Reward Ratio: 1:1 / 1:1.50
✔️ Trade Direction: Sell
✔️ Entry Price: 3329.64
✔️ Take Profit: 3324.68
✔️ Stop Loss: 3334.59
🔔 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. I’m simply sharing a trade I’ve taken based on my personal trading system, strictly for educational and illustrative purposes.
📌 Interested in a systematic, data-driven trading approach?
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BULLISH GOLD BIAS FOR THE WEEKGOLD (XAUUSD) Long Bias Trade Idea
Timeframe:
Weekly Structure | 4HR Execution
Market Context:
Gold is approaching a Weekly Bullish Order Block (OB), presenting a high-probability reaccumulation zone. Price is expected to respect this demand zone as support before targeting premium-side liquidity at old highs.
This move aligns with a weekly bullish market structure continuation, where price revisits a prior demand area before seeking liquidity higher.
Entry Zone:
🟢 Buy Zone: $3,020 – $3,010
This range represents the Weekly Bullish Order Block.
Ideally wait for bullish confirmation on the 1HR or 4HR (e.g., FVG fill, BOS/MSH, displacement candle, etc.)
Take Profits (Targeting Liquidity + Imbalance):
TP1 – $3,430
🎯 Old swing high / external liquidity above recent premium structure.
TP2 – $3,500
🎯 Clean buy-side liquidity pool + probable algo target + extended premium inefficiency fill.
Risk Management:
Stop Loss: Below $3,000
🔒 Beneath the Weekly OB low and structural invalidation point.
Risk-to-Reward:
Minimum 1:4 RRR to TP1, significantly higher to TP2.
Confluences:
Price returning to a Weekly Bullish OB in discount.
Previous structure shows liquidity sweep + bullish continuation.
Clear buy-side liquidity and inefficiency targets above.
Potential equal highs forming magnet above TP1 and TP2 zones.
Execution Tips:
Monitor 4HR/1HR for:
Bullish breaker block reaction
Displacement + FVG formation
Internal liquidity sweep followed by bullish BOS
Consider scaling in with multiple entries inside the zone.
Secure partial profits at TP1, trail the rest to TP2 using structural pivots.