Little more upside for goldHi traders,
Last week gold swept the liquidity and went up again just as I said in my outlook.
The last wave down could be wave 2 or it's part of a big Triangle (orange C)/ Flat.
Next week we could see this pair go up again to finish (orange) Wave D. After that we could see another move down for Wave E.
Let's see what price does and react.
Trade idea: Wait for the bigger correction to complete.
If you want to learn more about trading FVG's & liquidity sweeps with wave analysis, please make sure to follow me.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis.
Don't be emotional, just trade your plan!
Eduwave
XAUUSD trade ideas
XAUUSD Elliotwaves update: Is wave 4 complete?The view we had in past three weeks was a possibility of complex 4th wave and our short term bias was bearish. But price reacted and closed above 61.8 Fibonacci retracement level and therefore changed our bias to bullish(Technically 4th wave is complete). Another confluence was a clear 5 waves after the reaction on the 61.8 fib. Now two possibilities, either wave 2 is complete and we should expect price to continue up from current price level or a possibility of double 3 to push price down to atleast 61.8 Fib before continuation to the upside. To take advantage of this anticipated move a trader should either wait for price to drop to the golden zone or wait for price to breach the immediate high and retest.
Xauusd Expecting bullish Movement Market I have identified a potential bullish setup based on key rejection zones and target levels
First Rejection Area 3325
Second Rejection Area 3310
First Target 3350
Second Target 3365
Price has shown strong support around the 3310–3325 zone, indicating possible buyer interest. If the market holds above this support range, we could see a move toward the 3350 and 3365 resistance levels
Gold Daily Review
Dear traders, the sell-off last night directly brought the bulls back to their original form. The closing price of 3325 made most of the gains accumulated hard this week spit back. To me, this wave of market is a typical "data killing". The June non-agricultural data came out halfway, and the employment data was so strong that even the old foxes on Wall Street were surprised. Now the market's bet on the September rate cut has dropped directly from 70% to less than 50%. How can gold, which is "interest rate sensitive", withstand such a critical blow?
From a technical perspective, the negative line of the daily line is indeed ugly, but I think the bulls should not die. Look at the 4-hour chart. The Bollinger Bands have begun to "tighten their belts", and the 3310-3365 box is clearly drawn. Today is Independence Day. The US market closed early. Those Wall Street wolves probably ran to the Hamptons for a pool party. We are likely to play a "lying flat" market in the Asian and European markets. I calculated with my fingers that the 40 USD range of 3310-3350 is enough for us to toss around. Remember - short orders at the upper edge of 3345 should be as fast, accurate and ruthless as "whack-a-mole", and long orders at the lower edge of 3325 should be as patient as a fisherman!
The news is now "ice and fire". On the one hand, Trump's "big and beautiful" tax cut bill has just passed the test successfully. After this shot of booster, the US dollar and US bond yields are soaring like stimulants; on the other hand, drones in the Middle East are causing trouble again, and the small flame of geopolitical risk has not been extinguished. If you ask me, gold is like a "schizophrenic patient" now, jumping back and forth between inflation narratives and risk aversion sentiment.
Specific strategy:
① Directly "operate from a height" near the rebound of 3345, set the stop loss at 3352, and the target position is the 3330-3320 range. Remember that this position is the "previous high neckline position" and the probability of breaking is not high.
② You can "lighten your position and fish" when it falls back to 3325. The defensive position of 3315 must be strictly guarded, and the target position is the pressure zone of 3335-3345
Gold Consolidating Ahead of Next Move Gold Consolidating Ahead of Next Move – Is 3390 the Bull Target or a False Breakout Trap?
🧭 Fundamental Outlook
Gold has entered a tight consolidation phase following a wave of high-impact macroeconomic events:
The US House of Representatives has passed Trump's “Super Bill”, raising expectations of increased fiscal spending and long-term inflationary pressures. In theory, this is supportive of gold prices.
However, strong NFP and Unemployment Rate figures released recently have reinforced dollar strength in the short term, suggesting the Fed may delay rate cuts → a temporary headwind for gold.
With Independence Day in the US, liquidity across global markets is expected to drop, increasing the risk of false moves or stop-hunt volatility.
🟡 The lack of immediate upside doesn’t mean bullish momentum has disappeared. Price may simply be building energy before its next leg.
📉 Technical Overview – XAU/USD
Gold has broken out of a minor descending trendline and is now testing a key supply zone around 3344–3345, which could determine the intraday trajectory.
🔍 Key Levels
Resistance Zones: 3345 – 3362 – 3374 – 3388 – 3390
Support Zones: 3330 – 3312 – 3304 – 3302 – 3298
🟢 Bullish Scenarios (Buy Setups)
📍 Intraday Buy Zone:
3313 – 3311
Stop Loss: 3307
Take Profit: 3316 – 3320 – 3325 – 3330 – 3335 – 3340 – 3345 – 3350
📍 Deep Pullback Buy Zone:
3304 – 3302
Stop Loss: 3298
Take Profit: 3308 – 3312 – 3316 – 3320 – 3330 – 3340
These zones are ideal for trend-continuation entries, especially if supported by bullish candles or price action on lower timeframes.
🔴 Bearish Scenarios (Short-Term Only)
📍 Intraday Sell Zone:
3362 – 3364
Stop Loss: 3368
Take Profit: 3358 – 3354 – 3350 – 3346 – 3340 – 3335 – 3330
📍 High-Risk Sell Zone:
3388 – 3390
Stop Loss: 3394
Take Profit: 3384 – 3380 – 3376 – 3370 – 3365 – 3360
Bearish positions should be reserved for signs of exhaustion or rejection patterns at resistance levels.
🧠 Trading Bias for Today
With limited liquidity due to the US holiday, price may remain trapped in a sideways range between 3320 and 3340. Traders should stay nimble and avoid overexposure.
✅ Primary bias: Buy dips near major support
⚠️ Alternative view: Only short if price confirms reversal at resistance
💬 What’s Your Take on Gold Today?
Will gold break through the 3390 barrier this week?
Or are we looking at one more dip before a true bullish continuation?
👇 Share your thoughts and trading ideas in the comments!
7.4 Non-farm payrolls exploded, and expectations for the Fed’s rOn Thursday, as the strong US employment data dispelled the market's expectations of the Fed's recent rate cut, the US dollar index rose sharply before the US market, returned to above the 97 mark, and once rose to an intraday high of 97.42.
Spot gold fell sharply, once falling to $3311 during the session, a drop of more than $50 from the intraday high, and then recovered some of its losses and remained near 3330 for consolidation.
The current upper suppression position of the daily line is almost here at 3350, and the lower support is located at 3320-25.
So if it is maintained in the range of consolidation, it is likely to be rectified at 3320-50.
Secondly, from the hourly chart:
It can be seen from the trend of 3247 to 3365.
The Fibonacci 618 position is exactly here at 3320.
Although the lowest point last night was pierced to around 3311, it can be seen that the entity still closed above 3320.
As long as 3320 cannot be broken, the best case scenario is to maintain it at 3320-50 for consolidation. If not, once 3350 is broken, the high point of 3365 will definitely not be able to be maintained.
Therefore, for today's operation, try to maintain the high-selling and low-buying range of 3320-50.
Gold?
Hi
Do you have a crystal ball? I do.. haha
You should rub/shine it frequently. Nahh.. just a joke.
I will call it : a prediction or bias.(That I hold , till proven wrong)
Look at weekly; formed 1 bar bullish , was taken/ broken low by 2 bearish bar.
So I'm bearish still.. although.. this week. it went into area of break price 3291.
The subtle point is.. where do i entry and how much price difference I will put in.
If 20$ gap.. price now $3330.00 +20$ = $3350
for 0.01 = 20$ risk
price 20$ seems reasonable if I'm at the right point/entry.
I'm too basic...
I'm too simple..
Not a guru
NB/ Yest NFP will be a strong bias too. What a sell off :)
XAU/USD bullish path is projected with higher highs towardTARGETSUPPLY Zone (Bottom Left): Marked where aggressive selling started previously.
FVG (Fair Value Gap): Imbalance between buyers and sellers; often revisited.
Support Zone (Middle Right): ~$3,260 - $3,280 — marked for potential price reaction or bullish reversal.
Support (Lower): Much deeper level, around ~$3,160 — a critical demand zone in case of breakdown.
2. Resistance & Target Zones:
First Target: ~$3,360 — Initial resistance, just above current price.
Second Target: ~$3,400 — Next major resistance level.
Third/Final Target: ~$3,455 - $3,480 — Strong resistance zone and potential exit point for longs.
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🧠 Market Structure Insight:
Current trend: Range-bound to slightly bullish in the short term.
Price recently bounced near the support zone, suggesting bullish interest.
A bullish path is projected with higher highs toward the targets — shown with the curved arrows.
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📌 Trade Plan Visualization:
Entry Area: Current price ($3,316) or near the support zone ($3,260–$3,280)
Stop Loss: Below the lower support zone (~$3,250)
Take Profits:
TP1: ~$3,360
TP2: ~$3,400
TP3: ~$3,455–$3,480
This layered TP strategy reflects a scaling-out exit method — a pro move for managing risk and locking profits.
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✅ Professional Observations:
Multiple confirmations: Price is forming higher lows near support.
Risk-Reward Ratio: Good setup with clear invalidation.
Volume not shown: Would be useful for additional confirmation of breakout/rejection zones.
Fair Value Gap (FVG): This area often acts as a magnet — price may return to fill it, which aligns with bullish projections.
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🎯 Summary:
This chart presents a high-probability long setup with well-defined support zones, clear targets, and smart risk management. Ideal for intraday to swing traders following technical structure and institutional trading concepts.
XAUUSD Expecting bullish Movement Gold is showing potential for a bullish reversal from the key support zone between 3390 to 3395. Price has formed a base in this range, and if it holds, we may see an upside breakout above the descending trendline
Buy Zone: 3390 – 3395
First Target: 3355.50
Second Target: 3380.50
A successful breakout and hold above the trendline resistance could trigger a move toward our short-term targets. Watch for bullish confirmation before entering. Manage risk accordingly
Gold Trading Strategy | July 10-11✅ Technical Analysis:
🔸 Confirmed Resistance at High Levels:
Gold was rejected around the 3328–3330 area, which aligns with our previous assessment of the upper boundary of the descending trend channel. This zone has acted as a key resistance area during multiple past rebounds and is once again proving to be a valid pressure point.
🔸 Consolidation Between 3310 and 3320 After Pullback:
Although gold has pulled back, it has not broken below 3310 decisively, indicating that while bears hold the advantage, there is still buying interest below. Structurally, the overall movement is still a "pullback–rebound–correction" pattern within a broader downtrend.
🔸 Bearish Alignment in the 1-Hour Moving Averages:
Short-term moving averages (MA10/20/60) are still aligned in a bearish formation, with lower highs in each rebound and no clear reversal signal from the candlesticks. The short-term trend remains tilted to the downside, with a higher probability of further pullback if the price fails to break resistance.
🔴 Key Resistance Levels: 3330 / 3345 / 3365
🟢 Key Support Levels: 3307 / 3300 / 3282
✅ Trading Strategy Reference:
🔰 If gold fails to break above the 3328–3330 resistance area, the strategy remains to sell on rallies.
🔰 First support to watch is 3307 / 3300. If 3300 is broken, downside could extend toward the 3282–3275 zone.
🔰 If gold later breaks and closes firmly above 3330 (with a strong bullish candlestick), then a short-term trend reversal is possible, and the next upside targets would be 3345–3365.
🔥 Reminder: Trading strategies are time-sensitive and should be adjusted in real time based on market conditions, especially after key support or resistance levels are broken. If you need more accurate and timely trading signals, feel free to reach out to me directly!
XAUUSD - Intraday SMC Bearish Setup | 15m ChartGold is currently reacting to a visible 15m supply zone after a bullish retracement. Price failed to break above the short-term supply (highlighted in red), showing signs of potential short-term reversal.
🔍 Key SMC Insights:
Supply Zone at 3318.47 – 3320 area is holding firm, with price showing clear rejection and lower highs forming.
Internal CHoCH already confirmed — suggesting short-term bearish order flow is active.
Liquidity Grab and rejection around the supply confirms smart money may be offloading positions.
Imbalance Below near 3303.96, with further inefficiency down to 3272.64.
📍Trade Idea:
Sell Entry: After a retest or failure to break above the 3318.47 zone.
Target 1: 3303.96 (near-term support and minor liquidity)
Target 2: 3272.64 (major liquidity zone + possible demand area)
Invalidation: Bullish break and close above 3320 would shift intraday bias.
⚠️ Monitor lower timeframes (1m–5m) for confirmation before executing trades. This setup aligns with the 4H bearish structure, enhancing confluence.
Gold fluctuates, consolidation in the 3330-3310 range📰 News information:
1. Waller meeting on interest rate cuts
2. Trump tariff issues
📈 Technical Analysis:
Waller will participate in the meeting in more than two hours and pay attention to whether there is any news of interest rate cut. The key is to operate around the 3330-3310 range. Continue to pay attention to the support of 3310-3305 at night. If gold falls below 3310,-3305 again, the downward trend will continue, and it is expected to touch 3280 again, or even 3250. If it rebounds above 3330, it is likely to continue to rise.
In addition to investment, life also includes poetry, distant places, and Allen. Facing the market is actually facing yourself, correcting your shortcomings, facing your mistakes, and exercising strict self-discipline. I share free trading strategies and analysis ideas every day for reference by brothers. I hope my analysis can help you.
TVC:GOLD FXOPEN:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold Stuck in Neutral: Range Trading PersistsSince its impressive rally towards $3,500 earlier this year, Gold (XAUUSD) has settled into a consolidation phase, oscillating steadily between $3,250 and $3,400. Prices have consistently gravitated towards the 20-period SMA, reflecting a neutral sentiment among traders. Despite staying above key trend supports (50- and 200-period SMAs), gold has lacked sustained directional momentum.
Technically, indicators confirm this balanced outlook. RSI remains neutral around 49, indicating evenly matched bulls and bears, while the stochastic oscillator similarly shows neither oversold nor overbought conditions. A declining ATR highlights reduced volatility, signaling cautious market participation. Critical near-term support lies at $3,164 and $3,054, while resistance holds firm at $3,296 and $3,400. Traders should anticipate continued mean reversion and look to fade extremes within this established range.
Fundamentally, Gold faces competing drivers. Geopolitical uncertainties and central bank diversification away from the U.S. dollar provide bullish tailwinds. Conversely, resilient U.S. economic data periodically boosts the dollar, restricting gold’s upside potential. Traders should monitor this week's Fed minutes closely, as surprises here could trigger volatility or even a breakout scenario toward $3,500 or a deeper correction below $3,164. For now, expect gold to remain range-bound, reacting sensitively to headlines and macroeconomic cues.
Gold (XAUUSD) Analysis : Bullish Structure Setup + Target🧠 Gold (XAUUSD) Technical Analysis
Gold has recently been trading within a clearly defined descending channel, which has governed price action over the past several sessions. This structure is characterized by a series of lower highs and lower lows, forming well-established channel resistance and channel support levels. However, recent bullish pressure has led price to aggressively test the upper boundary of this channel, signaling the potential for a structural breakout.
We are now at a technical inflection point, where a successful breakout and retest could mark the beginning of a significant trend reversal and short-to-medium term bullish move.
🔍 Key Technical Levels & Zones
🔷 Channel Resistance (~3,325)
The price is currently testing the descending trendline acting as channel resistance.
This area has previously rejected price several times, increasing its significance.
A confirmed break and close above this level may shift the market bias from bearish to bullish.
🔷 Central Zone – Dual Demand (~3,325–3,330)
This horizontal zone intersects with the channel resistance and aligns with two previous demand zones, now acting as a key decision area.
The market must validate this zone as new support before any sustained upward movement can occur.
🔷 Next Reversal Zone – Target (~3,370)
The next major area of interest lies around 3,370, a zone identified by previous swing highs and visible liquidity pools.
This level is likely to act as a magnet for price if bullish structure is confirmed.
📈 Price Structure Outlook
The potential breakout is supported by a strong bullish impulse off the channel support, followed by a series of higher lows suggesting growing bullish momentum. The projected movement scenario is as follows:
Break above the channel resistance
Retest and confirm the central zone as support
Continuation toward the 3,370 reversal zone
This would complete a classic break–retest–continuation pattern.
✅ Trade Considerations (Not Financial Advice)
Entry Type Entry Condition Target Stop Loss
Aggressive Break & 2H close above 3,330 3,370 Below 3,320
Conservative Retest & bullish confirmation above 3,325 3,370 Below 3,310
Risk Management:
Use position sizing aligned with your risk tolerance (max 1–2% per trade).
Monitor volume closely during breakout and retest for confirmation.
⚠️ Invalidation Scenario
If price fails to break above the channel and is rejected strongly, especially with a bearish engulfing or long upper wick, the downside could resume. In such a case, price may revisit the channel midline or even the lower boundary around 3,290.
📝 Summary
Gold is at a critical juncture, testing long-standing channel resistance.
A break above and successful retest of the 3,325–3,330 zone could lead to a rally toward 3,370.
This setup reflects a potential shift in structure from bearish to bullish on the 2H timeframe.
Gold on Hold: Consolidation Without a SignalGold is holding up well for now and consolidating at the current level. But there’s no clear opportunity to buy or sell. It’s just guesswork at this point. And why would I need that? I want to make money, not to be "right."
On a global, long-term horizon (up to a year), I believe the metal will go higher. On the daily and weekly charts, the trend is still upward, and both geopolitical factors and the Fed’s rate policy support the continuation of the trend. But when exactly will it happen? That’s unclear. For now, there are no setups for a trade.
Interestingly, gold and other precious metals might move in different directions. Gold could start a correction while other metals could rise, as they are undervalued. But undervaluation isn’t a direct reason to buy. It’s always better to follow this rule: the market knows better than all of us what the fair price should be right now. Still, when it comes to entering a position, my opinion that the metal is undervalued can be taken into account—and if there’s a proper setup, the entry can be made. It’s like a puzzle. One factor is one piece, then another, and another—and once the full picture comes together, that’s when we enter the position.
Gold Price Analysis - 4-Hour Chart4-hour candlestick chart for the Gold Spot price in U.S. Dollars (XAUUSD), sourced from OANDA. The chart displays the price movement over time, with green candles indicating an increase in price and red candles indicating a decrease. The chart also features various technical indicators and annotations, including a trend line and a support level.
XAU USD a little & nice BUY set up 09-07-2025All analysis is based on technical analysis only...
Short & clear without any "BS"...
I do not believe in fundamental analysis (& if you are desperate for it, then... gold is never going to get cheaper in a very long term & it is a good investment for the next 50-100+ years, if you are happy with "preserving" your wealth, but if you are looking get paid this or next week, then...trading is a way. )
Entry is your very own choice ( easy to make decision on provided chart ( KISS- keep It Stupid Simple) )
TP around - 3367.188
SL - is totally depend on your very own financial & trading plan...
PS: it is not a financial advice & published for entirely "self educational" purpose"...
Trade Analysis (GOLD – XAUUSD)
Trade Analysis (GOLD – XAUUSD)
This chart highlights a classic bullish reversal setup forming after an extended downtrend. Here's the breakdown:
Descending Channel Structure: Price moved within a well-defined falling channel, forming lower highs and lower lows. This is often a sign of controlled bearish pressure rather than a full-on collapse.
Liquidity Grabs: Key swing highs and lows (circled) show areas where liquidity was swept before price reversed. These are classic signs of institutional moves clearing stop zones.
Bullish Breakout & Retest: Price eventually broke out of the descending channel to the upside, then came back for a clean retest of the structure—confirming the breakout is valid.
Higher Low Formation: After the retest, price formed a higher low, signaling buyer strength and potential for a trend reversal.
Projected Bullish Move: Based on market structure and momentum, we anticipate a bullish continuation towards higher highs as shown by the projection.
Gold is in a tug-of-war again
The oscillating pattern under the tug-of-war between gold risk aversion and the dollar
News: The interweaving of long and short factors has caused gold to fall into a tug-of-war
Positive factors:
Trump's new tariff policy: The United States will impose a 25% tariff on Japanese and Korean goods from August 1, and US stocks fell in response. The market's risk aversion sentiment has increased, and the price of gold has rebounded from a low of 3296 points to 3345 points.
The central bank continues to buy gold: The People's Bank of China continued to increase its gold holdings in June, buying for the eighth consecutive month, which has long supported the price of gold.
The long-term weakness of the US dollar: Although the US dollar index has strengthened in the short term, it has fallen 10% this year, close to a three-and-a-half-year low. Gold is still attractive as an anti-inflation asset.
Negative factors:
The US dollar has strengthened in the short term: Boosted by strong non-agricultural data, the US dollar index rebounded to 97.67, suppressing gold buying (especially non-US currency holders).
Geopolitical risks have cooled: There has been no major conflict in the international situation recently, and the demand for safe havens has declined. The rise in gold prices lacks sustainability.
Personal opinion:
Gold is currently in the game stage of "safe-haven support level vs. US dollar suppression level", and the short-term trend depends on the market's expectations of the Fed's policies and trade frictions. If the US dollar continues to rebound, gold prices may be under pressure; but if US economic data weakens or geopolitical risks reappear, gold prices may break through the range of fluctuations.
Technical aspect: shock narrowing, direction to be broken
Daily level: range fluctuations (3295-3345), moving average adhesion, unclear trend, need to wait for breakthrough signals.
Key points:
Resistance level: 3345 (multiple highs fall back, break through to see 3400).
Support level: 3295-3300 (break through may fall to 3270-3260).
4-hour chart: MACD golden cross is fragile. If the price falls below 3320, it may turn into a dead cross, exacerbating the risk of a pullback.
Weakness of hourly chart: K-line is under pressure from the short-term moving average. If the rebound in the early trading is weak, it may continue to fluctuate downward.
Personal strategy:
Short-term bearish: Before the effective breakthrough of 3345, you can lightly hold short orders, and wait for the price to rebound to 3320-3330 before testing short orders, with the target at 3300-3295.
Bull opportunity: It may pull back to the support area of 3290-3295 to stabilize, and you can arrange long orders.
Summary and operation suggestions
Core logic: Gold is stuck in the deadlock of "news disturbance + technical shock", and we need to be wary of false breakthroughs.
Key points: Upward breakthrough: If it stands firm at 3345, it will look to 3400. Downside risk: If it loses 3295, it may test the support of 3270-3260.
Subjective tendency: In the short term, it is more inclined to bearish volatility, because the dollar is strong and the sustainability of risk aversion is questionable. However, if the Fed releases dovish signals or US stocks fall sharply, gold may reverse quickly.