GOLD has conditions to increase with expectations of recoveryOn Thursday (October 31), some traders chose to take profits, causing gold prices to fall again, falling 2% and reaching a low of 2,731 USD/oz. As of the time of writing, Friday, November 1, gold has recovered to 2,746 USD/oz.
Safe-haven demand ahead of the US presidential election has pushed gold prices up for the fourth consecutive month, and gold prices have increased about 4% in the past month.
Previously, strong economic data released by the US increased market expectations that the Federal Reserve could cautiously cut interest rates in the coming months. Meanwhile, PCE data showed PCE inflation at 2.1% year-on-year, the lowest since early 2021 and slightly above the central bank's 2% target inflation rate.
Before the taper, gold prices had risen by more than a third this year due to central bank buying and safe-haven demand due to conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine. Uncertainty about the US presidential election has also highlighted the value of gold as a safe-haven asset.
In 2024, gold's gains are driven by economic uncertainty, central bank buying and geopolitical risks, especially in the Middle East. Gold prices are now entering a historic year as expected interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and central bank demand will further support gold prices.
Therefore, do not worry about price drops because in terms of fundamental long-term trends, gold is still strongly supported.
During this trading day, traders need to pay attention to the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and October Unemployment Rate data.
Surveys predict 108,000 new jobs will be added, compared with 254,000 last month.
The Nonfarm payrolls measure the change in the number of people employed during the previous month, excluding agriculture. Job creation is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of economic activity.
Figures that are much higher than expected or equal to the previous period will be considered a positive signal for the USD and continue to add pressure to the gold downtrend. Meanwhile, data at or below is expected to support gold's return to the bullish cycle and the continuation of its long-term uptrend, ending the ongoing bearish correction.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, yesterday's correction caused gold to swing below the short-term rising price channel noted by the price channel on the chart.
However, gold is also approaching a notable support level sent to readers in yesterday's edition at $2,725 when gold has the conditions for a correction.
Although the price dropped significantly, the mid- and long-term trend is still bullish with specific conditions such as stable price activity in the price channel, stable activity above the EMA21 level.
During the day, if gold can hold above the 0.236% Fibonacci level, it will have the potential to increase further with a short-term target of about 2,768USD, the price point is the confluence of the lower edge of the channel © and the 0.382% Fibonacci level.
The expectation for the intraday trend is a recovery with a target level of around 2,768 USD, along with which notable price points will be listed as follows.
Support: 2,745 – 2,725USD
Resistance: 2,768USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2765 - 2763⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2769
→Take Profit 1 2758
↨
→Take Profit 2 2753
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2714 - 2716⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2710
→Take Profit 1 2721
↨
→Take Profit 2 2726
