Trump's tariff measures trigger market shocks
📌 Driving events
Last Friday, as Trump threatened to raise tariffs on the European Union to 50%, and also pointed the finger at smartphone manufacturers such as Apple and Samsung, the market's risk aversion sentiment suddenly heated up, and spot gold closed up nearly 2% on the day.
On Sunday local time, US President Trump announced after a call with European Commission President von der Leyen that he would extend the deadline for the European Union to face 50% tariffs to July 9. Trump told reporters on his way back to Washington on Sunday: "We had a very pleasant call, and I agree to postpone the deadline."
Bloomberg analysis said that there are signs that US President Trump may relax his radical stance on EU trade, which will affect gold's safe-haven status.
At the geopolitical level, the conflict between Israel and Iran is imminent. The Israeli army's shooting of a diplomatic delegation has triggered international condemnation. Netanyahu has maintained a tough stance in the Israeli-Kazakh conflict; Trump's mediation of a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine has been frustrated. The Wall Street Journal revealed that when he spoke with the European side, he said that Putin believed that the Russian army was "winning", which contradicted his public statement. This week, the market focus shifted to the Fed's policy minutes, the Bank of Japan's rate hike expectations, European and American economic data, and OPEC+'s production increase plan. The interweaving of trade frictions, debt risks and geopolitical conflicts has kept the uncertainty of the global pattern high.
📊Comment Analysis
The first support level for gold prices may be in the range of $3290-3300/ounce. If it falls below the above support, the next support for gold prices will be $3250/ounce and $3200/ounce (50-day moving average). On the upside, the first resistance for gold prices is $3370/ounce. If this obstacle is overcome, the next resistance for gold prices will be $3430/ounce and $3500/ounce (historical high).
Labaron will digest a series of economic data to be released by the United States this week, such as durable goods and home sales, as well as the consumer confidence index. The U.S. stock market will be closed on Monday due to the Memorial Day holiday.
💰Strategy Package
⭐️SET UP GOLD PRICE:
🔥SELL GOLD zone : 3388- 3390 SL 3395
TP1: $3376
TP2: $3363
TP3: $3350
🔥BUY GOLD zone: $3301- $3299 SL $3294
TP1: $3312
TP2: $3325
TP3: $3338
⭐️ Note: Labaron hopes that traders can properly manage their funds
- Choose the number of lots that matches your funds
- Profit is 4-7% of the capital account
- Stop loss is 1-3% of the capital account
XAUUSD trade ideas
Elliott Wave Analysis & XAUUSD Trading Plan – May 26, 2025📊 Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD – H1 Timeframe
On the H1 chart, drawing an Elliott channel reveals that price is currently within wave iii (orange), and developing wave 5 (green) within that structure.
Once wave 5 (green) completes, the market is expected to correct downwards into wave iv (orange) before resuming the uptrend to complete wave v (orange).
🔍 Detailed Breakdown of Wave 5 (Green): Two Scenarios in Play
Scenario 1 – Wave 5 (green) is NOT yet complete
Price is currently forming a small wave 4 (Flat) within wave 5 (green). A final push upward is expected to complete wave 5, with two potential targets:
🎯 Target 1: 3373
🎯 Target 2: 3397
Scenario 2 – Wave 5 (green) is already complete
This would confirm that wave iii (orange) has ended, and the market is entering wave iv (orange) — likely to take the form of a zigzag, flat, or triangle pattern.
🎯 Target zone 1: 3317
🎯 Target zone 2: 3290
📉 Momentum Analysis
• D1: Momentum is turning bearish. Await today's daily candle close for confirmation of a broader weekly downtrend.
• H4: Momentum has already reversed to the downside ⇒ expect sideways or bearish moves during the day.
• H1: Momentum is currently rising ⇒ a short-term bounce is possible. Watch for bearish reversal signals on H1 to validate SELL setups.
📌 Trade Plan
🔽 Potential SELL Setup
✅ Sell Zone: 3373 – 3376
❌ Stop Loss: 3383
🎯 TP1: 3343
🎯 TP2: 3317
🔸 Note: Only sell if H1 momentum confirms a bearish reversal. If price breaks above 3376, wait for a higher entry at 3397.
🔼 Potential BUY Setup
✅ Buy Zone: 3316 – 3313
❌ Stop Loss: 3306
🎯 TP1: 3343
🎯 TP2: 3373
🔸 Note: Only buy if H1 momentum flips bullish. If this zone breaks, wait to buy lower at 3290.
Gold analysis strategy for next week
The super-invincible sweep of spot gold will continue to be staged, mainly determined by the current fundamentals! Under the background of tariff wars, geopolitical situations, central bank gold purchases, de-dollarization, uncertainty of the Fed's policies, and global economic recession, investors are enthusiastic, speculative funds follow suit, and spot gold surges and plunges have become the norm, and more and more! For a long time in the future, spot gold will most likely be repeatedly swept between 3400-3100 or 2950-3500, and then seek a large range breakthrough!
You can go long or short, as long as there are sufficient reasons, take good losses, don't resist orders, and control your positions; as long as you don't lose, it's easy to make a lot of money. The market fluctuates greatly, and if the profit does not exceed 20-30 US dollars, don't consider selling, otherwise it will waste a good market; the profit is as little as 20-30 US dollars, as much as 50-70 US dollars, and if the position is good, it is not difficult to make a profit of more than 100 US dollars!
Next, let's talk about the strategic layout for next week:
Gold is currently in a critical technical decision-making stage, and the 3370-3400 US dollar area has become a watershed between long and short positions.
From the technical structure, the daily level maintains a bullish pattern above 3295, and the golden cross of the stochastic indicator continues, but the 3430-3440 area will face a three-top test; although the 4-hour level maintains an upward channel, the MACD top divergence suggests short-term adjustment risks.
If the 3400 mark is effectively broken, it will open up the upward space to hit 3500; on the contrary, if it falls under pressure, it may fall to the 3250-3200 support area. The current market needs to be wary of the potential suppression of the double bottom pattern of the US dollar index, and sudden factors such as geopolitics may intensify volatility.
In terms of operation, it is recommended to take 3370-3400 as the axis, follow up after breakthroughs, reverse when blocked, and strictly control risks. It is necessary to focus on the three test results of the 3430 area and the effectiveness of the 3295 support. These technical signals will determine the medium-term direction of gold in the next stage.
Gold Analysis
4-hour time frame - To start the market, I expect an increase to the desired resistance areas and after collecting liquidity levels, the internal structure will correct the price. I have two correction scenarios in mind, with important support points whose numbers are clear, and a buy trigger can be taken in these areas for the main market liquidity that is indicated on the chart.
Gold Trade Closed: Securing Gains Amid Market UncertaintyAs the week wraps up, I’ve closed my gold position due to low volume and growing uncertainty around Trump's 50% tariff threats on Europe. While price lacked clear direction, what matters most is that we secured a solid 0.35% profit—a smart outcome given the conditions.
Key Factors Behind the Decision
Volume Weakness – Market indecision and reduced liquidity meant a lower probability of clean continuation. Geopolitical Risk – Tariff speculation increases volatility, making it wiser to step aside rather than get caught in unpredictable movements. Risk Management First – Our move to breakeven (BE) ensured capital protection while still capturing gains. End of the Trading Week – With the weekend approaching, gaps and unexpected news events could trigger erratic swings. Better to lock profits and reassess next week.
Why This Trade Was a Win
Profit secured despite uncertainty – A controlled 0.35% gain beats holding through risky conditions. Mastering risk management – Protecting capital ensures long-term consistency, not just chasing big moves. Constant improvement – Each trade refines our ability to read market structure, volume, and institutional footprints better.
Risk management is the real strategy behind profitability—not just catching moves, but knowing when to step away smartly.
Would you have held through the weekend, or do you prefer securing profits early? Let’s talk in the comments!
This version ensures 0.35% realized profit and risk management strategy are clearly highlighted! Let me know if you need adjustments.
Follow @GoldenZoneFX for more knowledge and valuable insights.
GOLD is About to COLLAPSE from a Fake Pump!📊 GOLD SMC Analysis (XAU/USD 4H)
Gold just tapped into a major Fair Value Gap + Premium OB Zone, aligning with the 79% retracement level. Market structure shows exhaustion, and a perfect short setup is forming.
🔍 Smart Money Narrative:
Strong prior bearish move = institutional sell-off ✅
Clean retrace into FVG (Fair Value Gap) and OB (Order Block) = sell zone 💯
Price tapped into 3,351 – 3,364 range (marked red)
That level aligns with the 79% Fib + channel resistance 🚨
The confluence = Smart Money liquidity grab ➡️ expect dump
📍 Key Confluences:
✅ FVG: clear imbalance filled (great trap zone)
✅ Order Block: bearish origin of last impulse
✅ 79% Fib Level: classic retracement kill zone
✅ Bearish Trendline + Channel Top: dynamic resistance
✅ 3:1+ RRR short idea in play
📉 Trade Plan (Sell Setup):
Entry Zone: 3,351 – 3,364
Stop Loss: 3,442 (above swing high)
Take Profit:
TP1: 3,280 (61.8% level)
TP2: 3,120.76 (full move, 0% Fib)
RRR: 1:3 to 1:4 🤑🔥
🧠 Institutional Logic:
Retail is chasing breakout highs 😬
Smart Money is selling into OB + FVG → trap those late longs
Next? Smash weak lows and rebalance price with a deep pullback
💬 “Gold’s headed for a cliff dive?” Drop a 💰 or ‘XAU’ if you’re riding this wave down!
GOLD What Next? BUY!
My dear friends,
GOLD looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The market is trading on 3293.8 pivot level.
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear long signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bullish trend of the market.
Goal - 3307.5
Recommended Stop Loss - 3287.2
About Used Indicators:
Pivot points are a great way to identify areas of support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other kinds of technical analysis
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Gold expectation 1H (For next week)Respected main support, means we seeing the start of a new up trend and recovery. Setting up for a bullish movement to destination 2? could be...false breakout means theres a testing of the trend line, with a possibility of it breakibg out soon. Wait for the bounce off the main support again to see if we in for a bullish move. Lets wait see. #ToTheMoonTogether
Gold (XAU/USD) Bullish Reversal Setup – Inverse Head & ShoulderDescription (Safe for TradingView):
Gold on the 15-minute chart is forming a classic Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern, signaling a potential trend reversal from bearish to bullish. The structure is well-formed with the Left Shoulder, Head, and Right Shoulder clearly visible.
✅ Key Technical Highlights:
Neckline breakout occurred around the 3303.165 level.
Price is currently retesting the neckline as support.
Volume confirms breakout strength.
Potential for upward movement toward the 3340–3350 zone if support holds.
🔵 Support Zone: 3302–3303
🔴 Risk Management: Stop below recent swing low (near 3288)
🟢 Target Zone: 3340+
📊 Always follow your risk management rules. This is a potential opportunity, not financial advice.
Gold XAUUSD Move 29 May 2025Price Action: The price recently approached the 3,320-3,325 resistance zone (highlighted by horizontal lines) and rejected it, forming a bearish candlestick pattern (e.g., shooting star / doji). This suggests strong selling pressure at this level.
Trendline: The trendline from the recent high shows a potential double top or head-and-shoulders pattern, reinforcing the likelihood of a reversal.
Support Levels: Immediate support lies around 3290/80 (previous consolidation zone).
Volume (implied): A spike in selling volume at 3,320-3,325 could confirm the rejection.
Analysis: The rejection at 3,320-3,325, combined with the trendline break, indicates a potential sell-off. The market may be shifting from bullish to bearish momentum, especially if the price closes below the recent low.
Signal: Sell at 3,320-3,325 if the price rejects again with a bearish candle confirmation. Target 3,200-3,250, stop loss above 3,335.
xauusd 15mThe chart you've shared is a 15-minute candlestick chart for Gold Spot (XAU/USD) from TradingView. Here's a breakdown of the analysis presented:
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🔍 Key Chart Annotations & Levels
1. Current Price:
Around 3,293.175
2. Support Zone (Register Zoon):
Marked in red, around 3,275.000 - 3,285.000
This appears to be a strong demand/support zone where price might bounce.
3. Resistance Levels:
1st Level Resistance:
3,305.930
Price must break this to confirm a bullish reversal.
Target Point (Major Resistance):
3,329.135
Considered the upside goal if price breaks above the first resistance.
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📈 Price Action Scenarios
1. Bullish Scenario (Green Arrows):
If price finds support around current levels or in the red "register zoon"
A bounce could take price above the 1st level (3,305.930)
Target: 3,329.135
2. Bearish Scenario (Red Arrows):
If price fails to hold above the support zone
Possible breakdown below the red register zone leading to further downside
3. Neutral/Wait-and-See (Black Arrow):
Shows price could range before confirming direction
Suggests waiting for a clear break above 3,305.930 for confirmation
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📝 Observations:
The chart combines support/resistance with trend reversal signals.
Entry might be ideal if price tests and holds above the red zone, or breaks above 3,305.
Typo note: "register zoon" should likely be "register zone".
Would you like help interpreting this strategy in a trading plan or coding it into a trading bot/script?
Market next move 🔻 Disruption to Bullish Thesis
1. Resistance Zone Near Target
The "Target" area might align with a previous resistance level (historically where price has reversed or consolidated).
If price hits that zone, it could stall or reject, rather than break through.
2. Bearish Volume Divergence
While the candles are green and pushing upward, volume is not increasing significantly.
Lack of strong buying volume can suggest a weak rally — potentially a bull trap.
3. Trend Context: Larger Downtrend
The chart shows a strong prior downtrend before the recent small upward push.
This move could be a dead-cat bounce or retracement within a broader bearish move.
4. Fundamental Risk: USD Strength
If the US Dollar Index (DXY) strengthens due to macroeconomic data or Fed commentary, gold (USD-denominated) typically drops.
The calendar icons suggest upcoming US economic data, which could disrupt gold’s movement.
5. Candle Structure Shows Exhaustion
The current bullish candles are smaller compared to previous strong red ones.
This may imply momentum exhaustion before reaching the target.
XAUUSD BUY SUPPORT AND RESISTACE BASE Chart Analysis Summary
🔷 Structure:
Bullish flag formation followed by a correction.
Price is bouncing from a key support zone (~$3,323–$3,330).
Forming a potential double bottom / minor accumulation at support.
Upside target aligned with previous highs near $3,380+.
Gold (XAU/USD) Buy Signal:
Buy near $3,330–$3,335, SL $3,322, TP $3,380+.
Structure: Support bounce + bullish setup.
Bias: Strong Buy unless $3,322 breaks.
📌 Final Note:
This is a high-probability long setup with well-defined invalidation. Avoid chasing if price breaks below $3,322, as it would invalidate the bullish structure.
Gold rebounded after hitting the bottom. Don't shortOn Wednesday, the New York International Trade Court of the United States stopped Trump's planned tariff policy; it ruled that Trump's act of imposing comprehensive tariffs on countries that export more to the United States than imports without the authorization of Congress was an overstep. This means that most of Trump's tariffs will be suspended.
After the news came out, gold fell rapidly, hitting a low of $3,245. It has now adjusted back and maintained around 3,270 for consolidation. From the current point of view, most traders with short strategies have taken profits around 3,250.
From the hourly chart, gold has started to pull back from $3,265 this week, and as of the current low of $3,245, it is a three-wave downward trend. The first wave fell to $3,225, and then rebounded to $3,350. The second wave fell from $3350 to $3285, and then rebounded to $3325.
The third wave of decline has been completed. According to the early decline and then the rise, the current rebound from $3245 is likely to test around $3300.
However, considering that $3285 is the previous low point, $3285 is also the upward pressure position this time.
Therefore, we should pay close attention to the pressure range of $3285-3295. If it can stabilize below $3295, then we can rely on the $3295-3285 range for short operations.
On the contrary, if the rebound is stabilized above 3300, it is necessary to stop loss in time.
Bears Win the Battle for GoldGold had been stuck between the orange downward trendline and the shorter-term upward trend channel (white), with a decisive move imminent as discussed in earlier posts. That decision now appears to favor the bears, as the upward trend channel has broken.
Following the break, gold quickly dropped to the 3,270–3,290 support zone, which is currently being tested. This zone also includes the 200-hour moving average, adding to its significance. The main support to watch is the yellow trendline visible at the bottom of the chart, which originates from late December. This trendline currently sits near 3,150 and could be the key medium-term target if bearish pressure continues.
In the shorter term, if the 3,270–3,290 zone fails to hold, the next downside target is likely 3,200.
XAU/USD Bullish Reversal Setup🟢 XAU/USD Bullish Reversal Setup – Bounced from Key Demand Zone
Gold (XAU/USD) has shown a strong reaction from the $3,278–$3,285 support zone, coinciding with a visible high-volume node and prior demand area. Bullish divergence is building on the histogram, and short-term EMAs are starting to flatten, hinting at a possible intraday reversal.
📈 Entry: $3,312.10
🎯 Target: $3,400.11
🛑 Stop-Loss: $3,278.95
⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio: 2.72
Key Bullish Confluences:
Price reacting from value area low
EMA compression + bullish histogram transition
High probability recovery toward $3,366 – $3,400 resistance zone
Volume gap above offering clean upside path
Gold (XAU/USD) Bearish Trendline Breakout – Short Set.Trend Channel: Price had been moving within a clear ascending channel. Recently, price action tested the lower trendline and appears to have broken below it, indicating potential bearish momentum.
Ichimoku Cloud: The price has moved below the Ichimoku cloud, which adds further bearish confirmation. This breakdown of both the trendline and the cloud indicates a possible shift in trend direction.
Volume Spike: A slight increase in volume during the breakout suggests growing interest from sellers.
Entry Signal: The chart marks a zone (circle) where traders should watch for a red candle confirmation. A bearish close below the trendline supports initiating a short position.
Targets:
TP1 (Take Profit 1): Around the 3,240 zone — this is a moderate support area and a conservative profit target.
TP2 (Take Profit 2): Around the 3,160 zone — this aligns with a previous demand zone and represents a deeper corrective move.
Trade Strategy:
Entry: After confirmation with a red candle below the trendline and Ichimoku cloud.
SL (Stop Loss): Ideally placed above the trendline or recent high to protect against a false breakout.
Conclusion:
If the price holds below the ascending channel and the Ichimoku cloud, the setup favors short sellers. Watch closely for bearish candlestick confirmation before entering. TP1 and TP2 offer clear targets based on past support zones.
Would you like a follow-up with live price tracking or updated levels?