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XAUUSD trade ideas

XAU/USD: Institutional Accumulation or New Bearish Impulse?Technical Context: The graphical analysis shows that the price of gold (XAU/USD) is currently consolidating within a significant demand zone following the recent bullish impulse. The daily chart shows an attempt to bounce off the 3,300 USD zone, a key psychological level. Volume and COT Analysis: The latest COT data (April 29, 2025) indicates a slight reduction in long positions by non-commercial operators (-18,519 contracts), balanced by an increase in commercial long positions (+1,659 contracts), signaling potential institutional accumulation. On the retail sentiment front, traders are slightly more exposed to the downside (51% short vs. 49% long), which could indicate a potential short squeeze if the price resumes an upward trend. Seasonal Trends: According to data, May historically shows mixed performances with an average of +9.83% over the last 10 years, but with significant fluctuations between longer and more recent periods. Key Levels: Resistance: 3,380 - 3,400 USD (previous distribution zone) Support: 3,300 USD (current demand zone) and 3,050 USD (secondary support) Trading Strategy: Bullish Scenario: Buy above 3,340 USD with a target at 3,400 USD and a stop loss below 3,300 USD. Bearish Scenario: Sell below 3,300 USD with a target at 3,050 USD and a stop loss above 3,340 USD.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
Gold Technicals & FundamentalsThe chart shows gold trading inside a descending channel, with the current price action testing the upper boundary of the channel. The pivot zone around $3,320 is acting as a potential intraday resistance. Despite the recent bounce, the price has not yet broken structure or the descending channel, implying bearish control is still intact unless a breakout above the pivot occurs. The RSI is near 41, which is moderately bearish and suggests that there is still room for a downside move before oversold conditions. The volume spike during the last bearish candle also indicates strong selling interest near the upper channel boundary. The black arrow path suggests a probable lower high formation followed by continuation to the downside toward support near $3,260, aligning with the channel’s lower trendline. Recent hawkish Fed comments and resilient labor market data have strengthened the U.S. dollar, which typically pressures gold lower. As long as Fed rate cut expectations are pushed further out, gold may remain under pressure.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by xxChartWhizxx
Gold prices pulled back. Will prices continue to fall?Latest news: Trump announced a trade deal with the UK, which boosted market risk appetite; coupled with a sharp rise in the US dollar and US bond yields, gold prices plummeted in the Asian morning trading session. US President Trump and British Prime Minister Starmer announced a "breakthrough agreement" on trade, which made market traders predict that the United States would also reach such an agreement with other countries. This prediction has made market buyers lose motivation. Quaid believes that if the United States and China reach an agreement, gold prices will face great resistance to rise, and gold prices should fall back to $3,200/ounce. Market trading analysis: The upward trend of gold paused and started a sharp decline. As described by the RSI, buyers are losing momentum. This is not good for gold, and the price has now fallen below $3,300/ounce. Quaid believes that it will continue to fall and may fall to the cycle low of $3,202/ounce. Short-term trading strategy: Short at 3280, stop loss at 3290, and take profit at 3260. Quaid believes that if the price of gold falls below the downward resistance level of 3275, you can continue to hold your position and choose the right time to trade.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Quaid-1
GOLD 30m Buy Setup | FVG + Fib Discount + Reversal Block🌟 GOLD (XAUUSD) Buy Opportunity | May 9, 2025 | 30m SMC Setup This GOLD setup on the 30-minute timeframe presents a textbook Smart Money entry. We’ve got a deep retracement into the 61.8% Fibonacci level, clear Fair Value Gap (FVG) demand zone, and a sharp rejection wick + micro reversal block right at the zone. 🔍 KEY CONFLUENCES: 🔻 Deep Discount: 61.8% Fib zone 🟧 FVG block inside key institutional candle 🧱 Reversal block right before the reaction 💥 Aggressive price rejection at 3,297 zone 📈 Targeting premium levels ~3,369.6 🛡️ SL below 70.5% (~3,293.2) — safe under liquidity grab 📈 Setup Specs: Timeframe: 30min Direction: Long Entry Zone: 3,302 – 3,303 TP: 3,369.6 SL: ~3,293.2 RR: Approx. 1:8+ 💡 Trade Logic: Smart Money engineered a sweep of local lows, then left an imbalance (FVG) as the market shifted. The 61.8% retracement + bullish wick combo confirms intent. The reaction is strong — we expect price to fill the inefficiency and target premium liquidity above. 🎯 Chart Ninja Tip: “Where price pauses, Smart Money loads. Where it explodes, they’ve already finished.”
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ChartNinjas88
XAUUSD – 1h Fib Premium Rejection Setup + Liquidity Sweep📉 XAUUSD SHORT SETUP – May 8, 2025 | SMC Confluence Mastery Gold is showing a high-probability short scenario off a premium Fib retracement zone with rejection from key structure and Smart Money reversal patterns. Here’s why this 1h setup could be the next sniper entry for Chart Ninjas: 🧠 KEY CONFLUENCES IN THIS TRADE: 🔺 Entry in Premium Zone: Price retraced into 70.5%–100% zone and rejected cleanly 🧊 Liquidity Above: Engineered buy-side liquidity was swept before reversal 📉 Bearish Order Flow: Consecutive lower highs + break of structure (BOS) 🛠️ Entry at 78.6% zone (~$3,416.99), stop above swing high 🕳️ Targeting Deep Discount: TP at ~-62% Fib level, near $3,262.01 🚨 Risk-Reward: Approx. 1:4.5 RR — clean structure with low risk ⚙️ Trade Execution Strategy: Look for rejection candles / breaker blocks in the 78–100% zone Set SL just above the swing high (~$3,420) Target full imbalance fill into deep discount zone Manage with trailing stop after price hits 0% or -27% 📊 Setup Summary: Timeframe: 1H Bias: Bearish Entry: Premium Fib Rejection TP: -62% Fib Extension SL: Above 100% level RR: 1:4.5+ Confluences: Fib, Liquidity Sweep, BOS 💬 Chart Ninja Insight: “Smart money never sells lows or buys highs. They sell where liquidity is hiding—just like this.”
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ChartNinjas88
Gold Long – Patience Paid OffBeen stalking this setup all session… Price swept 30M liquidity and gave that clean CHoCH. I locked in once 5M confirmed with a juicy liquidity grab + OB mitigation. Classic SMC flow—no rush, just precision. This is that type of move where you sit back and let the market come to you. Entry locked, targeting those 30M highs. Let’s ride this wave. #XAUUSD #Gold #SMC #SmartMoney #Forex #Liquidity #OrderBlock #CHoCH #DayTrading #FundedTraderGrind Bless Trading!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Juicemannn
Gold operating range oscillation: 3360-3400Gold operating range oscillation: 3360-3400 Current market dynamics: Geopolitical risks subsided, and the Asian market implemented the policy of reducing reserve requirements and interest rates: gold prices fell sharply by $70 to 3360 during the day. Risk of the Fed's decision: The interest rate decision in the early morning is the core variable. No interest rate cut or a tough statement may suppress the gold price to 3320-3300; Unexpected interest rate cuts or dovish signals may push the gold price to rebound above 3430 points. Key technical points: 4-hour chart: Resistance level: 3436 points (78.6% Fibonacci retracement level), 3400 points (middle track pressure level). Support level: 3386 (61.8% Fibonacci), 3350 (50% Fibonacci, key node). Hourly chart level: Range oscillation: 3400-3360, double bottom support at 3360 (lower channel rail), breaking through 3400 will open up the upside space. Operation strategy: 1. Short-term short order: Entry point: short near 3398, stop loss 3410. Target: 3383 (initial support level), 3375 (lower edge of hourly line oscillation), final target 3360. Logic: The market may remain cautious before the Fed's decision. If the 3400 resistance is effective, the technical retracement will be effective. 2. Long layout conditions (need to wait for confirmation): Hold the 3360 double bottom, and go long with a light position after stabilization. The stop loss is set below 3350, and the target is 3400+. Logic: If the Fed releases easing signals, technical resonance may trigger buying. 3. Breakthrough follow-up strategy: Break above 3400: chase long, stop loss 3380, target 3430-3450. Break below 3350: chase short, stop loss 3370, target 3320-3300. Summary: Gold is at a critical node of the game between technical aspects and news aspects. Short-term recommendation is to focus on high-altitude below 3400, but be wary of unexpected reversals caused by the Federal Reserve. Prudent people can wait and see for the time being, and intervene after the trend becomes clear after the decision. If the price fluctuates rapidly, give priority to protecting the principal and avoid carrying orders.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Louisa00112
Gold bides its time. Bulls are suppressed at high levels? Gold is waiting for the Fed's interest rate decision. analysis in Asian time period: Gold opened with a sharp drop due to international news, and continued to fluctuate at a high level in the 3360-3400 range predicted by Quaid. I predicted in the early Asian session that the price of gold would rise to around 3390 and then fall back to around 3370-3360. And its trend is just as Quaid predicted and analyzed, with a correction after the predicted high point. Now it seems that gold has fallen into a high-level fluctuation range after a sharp drop in the early Asian session, which is in line with my expectations. Quaid believes that the trend direction of the European session is very important. The current upward suppression range is between 3400-3415, and the downward support level is between 3360-3370; On the contrary, if the European session falls below the downward support range, it may continue to fall. But Quaid believes that the overall upward trend of gold prices has not changed. Gold prices are just accumulating strength now, and will continue to rise after the adjustment. Overall trend analysis: Quaid recommends that the long strategy is still the main one. If the support range of 3360-3370 can resist the downward trend, then we can still carry out the long strategy after the price falls back. Operation strategy: Long strategy: Go long when the price falls back to 3365, stop loss 3350, take profit range 3400-3415. Short strategy: Go short at 3395, stop loss 3405, take profit 3360.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Quaid-1
1
Gold price breaks through 3400. Bulls take control?Gold price breaks through the 3400 resistance level I predicted. And there is a trend of continuous rise. Next, Quaid will comprehensively analyze the current market situation for all traders. Technical analysis: From the daily chart, the gold price has broken through the important resistance level and formed a strong upward trend. Currently trading above $3400, it has successfully broken through the key resistance range of $3385-3400. The Bollinger Band indicator shows that the middle track is at 3231.01, the upper track is at 3485.06, and the lower track is at 2976.97, indicating that the current price is near the upper track of the Bollinger Band, showing strong upward momentum. The RSI indicator shows that the current value is 64.8, which is in the neutral to strong area, and has not yet reached the overbought level, and there is still room for growth. Quaid believes that in the short term, if gold stabilizes above $3,400, it may hit $3,430-3,450. Once it breaks through, it will open up the possibility of a higher price. Market sentiment observation: The current market sentiment is clearly biased towards risk aversion, and global geopolitical tensions have become the main driving force for gold to rise. The continued tension of geopolitical conflicts and political uncertainty in Germany have prompted market participants to seek safe assets. At the same time, expectations for the Fed's future monetary policy shift are also increasing. Although the possibility of a rate cut in May is extremely low, the probability of a rate cut in the June meeting is close to 30%. Liquidity indicators show that the trading activity in the gold market has increased and institutional funds continue to flow in, indicating that bullish sentiment in the market has the upper hand in the short term. Technical indicators have not shown obvious overbought signals, which means that the current rally still has room to continue. Compared with other asset classes, gold's relative strength is outstanding, especially in the context of the possible challenges to the status of the US dollar as a safe haven asset. Outlook for the future In the short term: Gold prices may continue to rise to test the $3,400-3,500 area. The Fed's decision will be a key trigger for gold prices in the near term. If the Fed shows a dovish attitude, gold prices are expected to further break through historical highs. Medium term: Global geopolitical uncertainty is expected to continue to support gold prices. If geopolitical conflicts escalate further or the situation in the Middle East deteriorates, safe-haven demand may push gold prices to hit the $3,600 level. At the same time, market expectations of a shift in the Fed's monetary policy will be another key factor affecting gold prices. Long term: From a macro perspective, the current combination of slowing global economic growth and geopolitical tensions will continue to provide support for gold.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Quaid-1
Gold operation strategyFrom the 4-hour analysis, gold bulls are making another strong impact. On the top, we pay attention to the short-term suppression of 3385-90 and the suppression of 3400. On the bottom, we pay attention to the short-term support of 3350 and the important support of 3336-40. In terms of operation, we mainly buy when the price falls back. In the middle position, we always watch more and do less, and follow up orders cautiously, and wait patiently for key points to enter the market. Gold operation strategy: Buy when gold falls back to 3350-53, and cover long positions when it falls back to 3336-40, stop loss 3327, target 3380-3385, and continue to hold if it breaks;
FX:XAUUSDLong
by SampsonDelia
Gold Eyes $3,418 as Bullish Channel Holds Gold (XAUUSD) Analysis – May 6, 2025 📈 Technical Outlook: Gold Eyes $3,418 as Bullish Channel Holds Gold continues to trade within a rising channel on the 30-minute chart, with price currently near the mid-range around $3,373. Two likely scenarios: Bullish breakout toward $3,418 if minor resistance fails. Or a healthy pullback to $3,360–$3,345 support zone before resuming upward. Support levels: $3,370 (minor), $3,345 (strong). Resistance: $3,418, a key decision zone at the channel top. Short-term bias: Bullish, unless the price breaks and closes below $3,345. 🔍 Headline: “Gold Holds Above Key Support, Eyes Fresh Highs Toward $3,418 Within Bullish Channel” 🌍 Fundamental Outlook: Gold Supported by Fed Dovishness & Geopolitical Tensions Fed Policy Watch: Traders anticipate potential rate cuts later in 2025. Any dovish commentary this week will boost gold. U.S. Dollar Pressure: A softening dollar adds tailwind to gold prices. Bond Yields: Moderating U.S. Treasury yields reduce gold’s opportunity cost. Safe Haven Demand: Ongoing tensions in Ukraine, Middle East, and uncertainty in global equities maintain demand for gold. Central Bank Buying: Continued accumulation by central banks (e.g., China) lends structural support.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by FXNEWSCLUB
GOLD PLAN UPDATE 06/05/2025 - 2PM UTC• Gold surges to $3,38x/oz on dovish Fed bets, geopolitical risks, and safe-haven demand. • Fed pivot hopes fuel upside as weak data boosts rate cut odds. • U.S.-China trade tensions and Middle East unrest lift safe-haven flows. • Weaker USD adds support; central banks continue strong buying. • Growth and inflation fears keep gold bid. 🎯 Key Levels: • Resistance: $3,400–$3,420 • Support: $3,300–$3,310 🟢 Buy Zone 1: $3,355–$3,360 - SL: $3,350 - TP: $3,380–$3,385 🟢 Buy Zone 2: $3,300–$3,320–$3,330–$3,340 - SL: $3,320–$3,280 - TP: $3,390–$3,400–$3,450–$3,500 🔴 Sell Zone 1: $3,395–$3,400–$3,410 - SL: $3,405–$3,420 - TP: $3,370–$3,365–$3,350–$3,340 🔴 Sell Zone 2: <$3,300 - SL: $3,320 - TP: $3,250–$3,200 • Use tight stop-losses tailored to timeframe (5–10 prices for scalping; 20–30 for intraday/swing). • Limit risk per trade to 1–2% of account equity. • Stay alert to real-time Fed commentary, tariff news, and geopolitical headlines for sudden volatility spikes.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Jesse_Tnetc