Gold is weak. Will it continue to fall?Yesterday, the price of gold did not continue to rise as strong as in the previous two days. After reaching the previous top position, it began to retreat under pressure.
The market is too bullish, and under this pattern, the market is likely to have an unexpected reversal. Yesterday, it fell below the 3400 integer mark, so it is likely to maintain a volatile downward trend in the future.
The current main support level is around 3370, which is also the primary point for the bears to continue to break down in the future. Once it falls below this position, the target may be around 3345-3355. It cannot be said that it has completely turned to a bearish position at the moment. It is just a bearish oscillation pattern within a large range, and the upper pressure is maintained near 3405, which is also the support point for the first downward step of the bears on Wednesday.
Today, we still need to operate around the short position first. The price rebounds to 3405 and shorts, and the profit range is around 3390-3380, and the stop loss is 3415.
After a new low appears in the European session, wait for the US session to rebound and continue shorting.
XAUUSD trade ideas
XAUUSD on bearish retest sellGold is currently still holding rising channel along with the swing moves we were on sell throughout from yesterday and my 1st Attempt on sell achieved with 200 PIPs Tp now I'm expecting the again reversal retest move!!
What's possible scanarios we have?
▪️I opened again sell opportunity from 3420-3425 area by following our structural retest strategy, my Selling trade target will be 3405 then 3395 in extension.
▪️if H4 candle closing above 3435 this Parallel moves will be invalid.
#XAUUSD
Buy Plan – XAUUSD (Gold Spot) | 15M Chart📈 Buy Plan – XAUUSD (Gold Spot) | 15M Chart
Entry Reason:
Price reclaimed liquidity below the internal range and formed a bullish shift in structure. A valid bullish dealing range was confirmed, supported by the 200 EMA and 4H T2.3 zone.
✅ Entry Zone:
➤ Entry taken after confirmation above short-term swing high
➤ Liquidity sweep confirmed below M15 consolidation
➤ Bullish FVG + support from HTF zone
🎯 Target:
TP1: 3,440.86 (1R)
TP2: 3,451.07 to 3,459.18 (Eyes above – possible reversal or continuation zone)
🛑 Stop Loss:
Placed below most recent swing low: 3,416.51
Below liquidity & invalidation of bullish structure
🧠 Bias:
Bullish (short-term continuation expected)
Reclaim above EMA and HTF zone respected
📌 Key Notes:
Watch price behavior near 3,451.07–3,459.18 for potential reversal or breakout
If price fails to maintain strength above 3,440, consider locking partial profits
Monitor 15M and 1H structure for any sign of internal break
XAU/USD Intraday Plan | Support & Resistance to WatchGold has continued its rally, breaking through the 3,416 resistance and pushing into the next upside zone.
Price is now trading around 3,421, just below the 3,440 resistance cluster.
The structure remains bullish with price holding firmly above both the 50MA and 200MA, which are acting as dynamic support.
A confirmed break and hold above 3,440 would open the path toward 3,458 and potentially the higher‑timeframe target at 3,478 if momentum extends.
If price fails to sustain above 3,416–3,440 and begins to fade, watch the initial pullback toward 3,400.
A deeper move below that would shift focus to 3,383 - 3,362 and then the Pullback Support Zone.
Failure to hold there could expose price to the lower Support Zone if bearish pressure builds.
📌 Key Levels to Watch
Resistance:
‣ 3,440
‣ 3,458
‣ 3,478
Support:
‣ 3,416
‣ 3,400
‣ 3,383
‣ 3,362
‣ 3,336
🔎 Fundamental Focus
⚠️Not much on the calendar today. Still, manage your risk and stay prepared for any unexpected volatility.
Gold (XAU/USD) 4‑Hour Technical Analysis: July 23, 2025Gold continues to trade in a bullish structure on the 4‑hour timeframe, holding above $3,420 after a steady advance from early July lows. At the time of writing, XAU/USD stands at $3,423.8, confirmed by Investing.com. This analysis employs a comprehensive blend of globally‑recognized technical tools — ranging from price action and classical indicators to institutional concepts — to identify the most probable trading zones and a high‑conviction setup.
Current Price Structure and Trend
On the 4‑hour chart, gold maintains a clear bullish market structure, consistently printing higher highs and higher lows since early July. The current price action unfolds within a well‑defined rising channel, bounded approximately between $3,400 on the lower side and $3,450 on the upper. Twice in the past week, price has tested and respected the channel’s lower boundary, confirming its validity.
Support and resistance levels are evident: immediate support lies at $3,410, coinciding with the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the July impulse wave. Below that, $3,390–$3,395 offers secondary support at the channel’s base and a longer‑term Fibonacci cluster. Resistance is concentrated at $3,445–$3,450, aligning with the channel top, upper Bollinger Band, and prior swing highs, while a secondary ceiling may emerge near $3,468–$3,470, corresponding to an Elliott Wave 3 extension target.
Candlestick, Volume, and Momentum
Recent price action has been supported by bullish candlestick formations. Notably, a strong bullish engulfing bar formed at $3,410 earlier this week, affirming institutional demand at that level. Volume profile analysis shows the heaviest transaction cluster between $3,410–$3,420, confirming this area as a smart money accumulation zone.
Volume‑weighted average price (VWAP ) currently runs near $3,418, with price holding above it, reflecting institutional positioning in favor of the bulls. Momentum indicators support the trend: MACD on the 4‑hour has just crossed bullish, RSI prints at 60 — strong but not overbought — and ADX climbs to 24, indicating a trend strengthening phase.
Indicators, Patterns, and Institutional Concepts
Trend indicators reinforce the bullish view. The 50‑ and 100‑period exponential moving averages converge around $3,415–$3,420, providing dynamic support. Ichimoku analysis shows price well above the Kumo (cloud), with a bullish Tenkan‑Kijun configuration. Bollinger Bands are widening, and price is leaning toward the upper band — a classic signal of volatility expansion in trend direction.
Classical and harmonic patterns offer further evidence. The current consolidation resembles a bull flag, suggesting continuation. Elliott Wave analysis points to a third wave in progress, with an upside projection into the $3,448–$3,468 area. Smart money concepts confirm that the recent break above $3,420 constituted a bullish break of structure (BOS), with price now retracing into a favorable gap (FVG) and a 4‑hour bullish order block anchored around $3,410–$3,415.
Liquidity and stop‑clusters likely sit above $3,445 and $3,468, making these logical targets for bullish campaigns.
Market Context and Sentiment
Gold is benefiting from a softening US dollar and a drop in volatility indexes. Seasonal tendencies also lean bullish into late summer. Sentiment on professional platforms aligns with this view: TradingView top authors and FXStreet analysts favor buying pullbacks into $3,410–$3,415 and targeting $3,450–$3,468, which harmonizes with this analysis. No major divergence from consensus is noted, adding to confidence.
Identified Trading Zones
Two strong buy zones emerge on the 4‑hour chart. The most immediate and highest‑confidence zone is $3,410–$3,415, supported by channel support, Fibonacci retracement, VWAP, moving averages, and an order block. Below this lies a secondary buy zone at $3,390–$3,395, tied to deeper Fibonacci support and the rising channel’s lower boundary.
On the other hand, clear sell zones are defined at $3,445–$3,450, where upper channel resistance, Bollinger bands, and prior highs converge, and a secondary zone at $3,468–$3,470, aligned with wave targets and round‑number psychological resistance. These areas are likely to attract profit‑taking and potential reversals.
The Golden Setup
Among the findings, one trade stands out as the highest‑conviction setup:
A long position at $3,415, with a stop loss at $3,405 and a take profit at $3,450.
This trade is backed by strong confluence: price pulling back into a well‑defined demand zone ($3,410–$3,415) that features order block support, Fibonacci retracement, VWAP alignment, EMA cluster support, and a rising channel boundary. The target sits just below the first significant resistance band ($3,445–$3,450), offering a favorable risk‑to‑reward ratio. The confidence level on this setup is rated at 8/10, given the multi‑method alignment and consistent sentiment from professional sources.
Summary Table
Category Levels / Details
Buy Zones $3,410–$3,415, $3,390–$3,395
Sell Zones $3,445–$3,450, $3,468–$3,470
Golden Setup Long @ $3,415 / SL $3,405 / TP $3,450 (Confidence: 8/10)
In conclusion, gold maintains a constructive technical outlook on the 4‑hour timeframe. The prevailing bullish structure, reinforced by classical and institutional methodologies, supports a continuation toward the $3,450–$3,468 region. The suggested Golden Setup provides a disciplined, high‑probability entry at a key inflection zone, consistent with both technical evidence and prevailing market sentiment.
Gold is under pressure. Can it break through?Since the "W bottom" pattern was formed at the low of 3344 US dollars, the gold price broke through the neckline of 3380 and further stabilized at 3400 today, confirming the continuation of the medium-term upward trend. The moving average system is arranged in a bullish pattern, with the 5-day, 10-day and 20-day moving averages diverging upward in turn, and the support strength is stable.
The MACD indicator golden cross continues to expand, the upward momentum is enhanced, and no divergence occurs; the RSI indicator rises to around 76. Although it enters the overbought range, there is no obvious turn, indicating that the bullish momentum is still being released.
The current support level has risen to around 3390, and the support level has risen sharply. The resistance position needs to pay attention to 3430-3440. At present, several times have tested above 3430, but they have not stabilized above this position.
Operation suggestions:
3390-3400 light position to try more, stop loss 3360, profit range 3435-3445.
If it encounters resistance and falls back near 3435, you can consider short-term short orders with stop loss at 3445 and profit range at 3400-3380.
Although the upward momentum continues, some risk information still needs to be paid attention to; this week, we need to pay attention to the US June existing home sales data (July 23), the preliminary value of the second quarter GDP (July 25) and the core PCE price index (July 26). If the data is stronger than expected, it may trigger expectations of interest rate cuts.
Gold technical analysis and operation strategyGold technical analysis and operation strategy
Market review and current trend
Gold fell from $3402 as expected in the morning trading today. After the price rose in resonance in the evening, it chased more again at 3397.8. The current gold price has broken through the short-term acceleration line. The key resistance above is at $3420 (the pressure of the convergent triangle trend line). If it is touched for the first time, you can try shorting. The support below focuses on 3400-3405. After stabilization, it is still bullish. Breaking through 3420 is expected to challenge the previous high of 3452.
Key driving factors of fundamentals
Fed policy expectations: The market focuses on the speech of Fed Chairman Powell at 20:30 tonight. If he releases dovish signals (such as hinting at a rate cut), it may boost gold; if he maintains a hawkish stance, gold prices may be under pressure by 37.
Geopolitical and trade risks:
The escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has boosted safe-haven demand, and gold open interest has surged by 23%5.
As trade frictions between Europe and the United States intensify, the EU may impose retaliatory tariffs of $72 billion on the United States, exacerbating market volatility6.
US dollar and US Treasury yields: The US dollar index fell below 98, and the 10-year US Treasury yield fell back below 2%, reducing the cost of holding gold and supporting the gold price of 610.
Key points of technical analysis
Support level:
3400-3405 (short-term long-short watershed)
3385 (today's low, key defensive position)
3360-3350 (daily moving average support) 18
Resistance level:
3420 (convergent triangle upper track, short short for the first time)
3452 (previous high pressure, may accelerate upward after breaking through) 10
Operation strategy
Short-term short order: first touch 3430 light position short, stop loss 3438, target 3415-3410.
Pullback long: 3410-3405 stabilizes and then long, stop loss 3395, target 3430, break to see 3430-3452.
Breakout strategy: If it stands firm at 3420, you can follow up with long orders, with the target being 810 above 3450.
Risk warning
Powell's speech may cause violent fluctuations. It is recommended to control positions and avoid heavy positions in the data market.
If it falls below 3385, the short-term bullish structure may be destroyed, and we need to be vigilant about further corrections to 3360-3350.
Daily gold analysisDaily gold analysis
A long position with the target and stop loss as shown in the chart
The trend is up, we may see more upside
All the best, I hope for your participation in the analysis, and for any inquiries, please send in the comments.
He gave a signal from the strongest areas of entry, special recommendations, with a success rate of 95%, for any inquiry or request for analysis, contact me
XAUUSD | 22 July 2025XAU/USD (Gold Spot) Technical Analysis – 15-Minute Timeframe
Date: July 22, 2025
Current Market Condition:
Gold is currently in a correction phase after a strong bullish move. The price is hovering around $3,385.51, just below the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, indicating potential bearish pressure.
Technical Breakdown:
Fibonacci Retracement & Extension:
The 0.618 retracement is at $3,388.49, acting as a key resistance zone.
Price attempted a pullback to the 0.5–0.618 retracement area but failed to break above, suggesting continuation to the downside.
Bearish targets lie at:
1.272 extension @ $3,382.85
1.618 extension @ $3,379.87
2.618 extension @ $3,371.25
Extreme target: 3.618 @ $3,362.64
Base Area (Demand Zone):
A consolidation zone is identified around $3,368 – $3,364, marking a strong demand area.
This zone could act as a potential rebound point if price continues to drop.
Price Action:
Clear rejection from a small supply zone (highlighted in red) near the 0.618 retracement.
Price formed lower highs and lower lows, supporting a short-term downtrend.
A downward arrow indicates expectation of further bearish movement.
Trading Bias:
Short-term bias: Bearish, as long as the price stays below the $3,389 resistance.
Ideal short entries were triggered in the 0.5–0.618 retracement zone, with stop loss above recent highs (~$3,393).
🎯 Summary & Strategy:
Sell on Rally: Bearish continuation is expected unless price breaks and holds above $3,388–$3,389.
Take Profit Targets:
TP1: $3,379.87
TP2: $3,371.25
TP3 (extreme): $3,362.64
Strong Rebound Zone: Watch for potential buy signals near the Base Area at $3,368–$3,364
Gold Poised for Further Gains After Consolidation BreakoutGold looks well-positioned for further upside.
We've seen consolidation at the current level since April, volatility has decreased over the past few weeks, and yesterday there was a decent breakout to the upside, with price hugging the moving averages.
As of the current trading session, the price has pulled back slightly.
I believe the chances for continued growth are high.
📝Trading Plan
Entry: To enter the position, I’ll drop to the hourly chart and plan to buy around the 3360–3370 zone.
Alternatively, if the price doesn’t reach that area, I’ll look to buy on a breakout above yesterday’s high at 3404.
Stop Loss: A stop should be placed below yesterday’s candle low, around the 3340 level (-1.3%). Overall, that’s not a very long stop, so I’ll be looking to try a long position.
Target: Target is around $3.700.
Gold Wave Analysis – 21 July 2025
- Gold broke resistance daily Triangle
- Likely to rise to resistance level 3450.00
Gold recently broke the resistance zone between the resistance level 3370.00 (upper border of the narrow sideways price range inside which Gold has been trading from the end of June) and the resistance trendline of the daily Triangle from April.
The breakout of this resistance zone accelerated the active impulse wave 3, which is a part of the intermediate impulse wave (5) from May.
Given the clear daily uptrend, Gold can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 3450.00 (top of the minor impulse wave 1 from the middle of June).
Gold Bull Charge- XAU/USD Clears July Opening-RangeGold is attempting to breach resistance today at the 61.8% retracement of the April decline / record high-day close (HDC) at 3355/80- watch the close.
The advance marks a breakout of the July opening-range and a topside breach here exposes the record high-close at 3432 and the record highs at 3500.
Initial support now back at 3355 with bullish invalidation steady at the objective monthly open at 3303.
-MB
XAUUSD:The next target is 3430.The market is developing completely in accordance with the expectations of the band trading center. Today is a day of sharp rise. As Monday, this increase is quite considerable.
The three reminders to buy are all at a lower position. The post clearly points out that the market has reached 3400. 3400 is a controversial position. It needs to fluctuate in the New York market, and then there will be some breakthroughs. If it is stronger, it will directly break through the New York market. In the short term, you can pay a little attention to the retracement position of 3390-3395. Then continue to buy. The next target is 3430.
XAU/USD Start July 20251. i start after XAU/USD break previous High and correction (fibbo 32.0) respected. based on elliot wave strategy we can targeting end of wave 3 at 3353 area and than correction wave 4 (target at fibbo 32.0 - 50.0). after target correction, continue wave 5 at target 3403 area.
2. fundamentally speaking, new months new quarter. there ins't new catalist and sentiment. Macro Economic this week focus on labour market at US and FED projection to cut rate.
3. War at Iran and Israel, Russia and Ukraine, India and Pakistan, Trade War case, etc,.
4. Will be update