Gold Analysis and Trading Strategy | July 15✅ Fundamental Analysis
🔹Gold prices surged and then retreated yesterday, mainly due to risk-off sentiment triggered by Trump’s announcement of a potential 30% tariff on EU imports. However, this sentiment was offset by the EU’s softened stance, indicating that “negotiation is still possible.” Additionally, the strength in both the U.S. Dollar Index and Treasury yields added pressure on gold.
🔹Geopolitical risks continue to rise. The EU is preparing to impose retaliatory tariffs on €72 billion worth of U.S. goods, while Trump has threatened a 100% tariff on Russian products. The ongoing Russia–Ukraine conflict also has the potential to escalate further, adding underlying support for gold.
🔹Today, the U.S. CPI data will be released — a key event for market participants. A higher-than-expected CPI figure will likely reinforce expectations that the Fed will maintain high interest rates, which is bearish for gold. Conversely, a weaker-than-expected reading may boost rate-cut expectations and support gold prices.
✅ Technical Analysis
🔸Gold failed to break the key resistance at $3375. The daily candlestick closed with a long upper shadow and a bearish body, indicating strong selling pressure from above. The MACD is showing early signs of a bearish crossover, suggesting short-term weakness.
🔴 Key Resistance Levels: $3360–3365, $3375 (critical level)
🟢 Key Support Levels: $3340, $3325 (major downside support)
✅ Trading Strategy Reference
🔺 Long Position Strategy:
🔰 If the price pulls back and stabilizes around $3335–3340, consider entering a light long position. Set a stop-loss below $3325 and aim for a target of $3355–3365.
🔰 If the price breaks above $3365 and holds, consider following the breakout with a long position, targeting $3375–3385.
🔻 Short Position Strategy:
🔰 If the price rebounds to $3360–3365 and faces resistance, consider shorting. Set a stop-loss above $3365 and aim for a target of $3340. If that level breaks, look for $3330.
🔰 If the price breaks below $3330, consider a momentum short toward the $3320 zone.
✅ Gold is likely to remain in a consolidation range during the European session. Maintain a buy-low, sell-high strategy with light positions and strict stop-losses. Pay close attention to the support at $3340 and resistance at $3365. Before the U.S. CPI data release, it's recommended to manage risk and control position sizes to avoid unexpected volatility.
🔥Trading Reminder: Trading strategies are time-sensitive, and market conditions can change rapidly. Please adjust your trading plan based on real-time market conditions. If you have any questions or need one-on-one guidance, feel free to contact me🤝
