XAUUSD - ANALYSIS👀 Observation:
Hello, everyone! I hope you're doing well. I’d like to share my analysis of XAU-USD (Gold) with you.
Looking at the chart, I see a potential small price pullback towards around 3260. After reaching that level, I expect a further price decrease to 3167.
📉 Expectation:
Bearish Scenario: After the pullback to 3260, a further decrease to 3167 is expected.
💡 Key Levels to Watch:
Resistance: 3260
Support: 3167
💬 What are your thoughts on XAU-USD this week? Let me know in the comments!
Trade safe
XAUUSD trade ideas
Gold key levels to watchGold has broken key short-term support between 3260-3284 (shaded in grey on the chart). This is a bearish development in the short term outlook from a technical point of view. But with the long-term trend being bullish, traders should take this with a pinch of salt. Key support levels are now approaching. $3200 is an obvious level to keep an eye on. Below that old resistance at $3167 comes into focus next. The line in the sand is at around the $3100 mark, where the bullish trend line is also converging.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
This is a 4H chart of XAU/USD with multiple SMC annotations. 1. Chart Analysis Using Smart Money Concepts (SMC)
SMC Structure Identified:
• Major Break of Structure (BoS): Occurred above 3,240 → confirmed bullish intent.
• Major Change of Character (CHoCH): Happened around 3,320 (last demand broken), indicating bearish shift.
• FVG (Fair Value Gap): Marked just below the last day high — partially filled and then rejected.
• Liquidity: Equal highs and lows around 3,327 and 3,200 respectively — potential liquidity targets.
⸻
2. Marked Points in Chart
• Last Day High / Low and Day High / Low are marked.
• 50% Day Range at approx. 3,274 — currently acting as intraday resistance.
• OB Zone around 3,214–3,218 (a critical support zone that may act as re-entry or rejection point).
• FVG Zone near 3,284 — unmitigated imbalance that price could revisit.
⸻
3. Swing High & Low of the Day
• Swing High: ~3,327.72 (day/session high).
• Swing Low: ~3,214.31 (day/session low).
• These define the current internal liquidity pool.
⸻
4. Trade Direction
• 4H Trend: Bearish, post CHoCH and major OB break.
• Bias: Bearish, as price is below FVG and below 50% of the daily range. OB is being respected and lower highs are forming.
• Intra-Day Opportunity: Possible short setups unless price closes strongly above 3,284–3,287 zone.
⸻
5. Best Risk-Reward Setup (Swing/Intraday)
Scenario: Price retests FVG/OB at 3,284–3,287 and rejects.
• Entry: 3,284.00 (inside FVG)
• SL: 3,288.50 (above supply zone & equal highs)
• TP1: 3,214.00 (last day low)
• TP2: 3,200.00 (liquidity sweep & OB retest zone)
• RRR:
• To TP1: ~1:3
• To TP2: ~1:4.5
⸻
6. Trade Setups by Timeframe
5-Minute Setup:
• Look for CHoCH near 3,284.00 zone.
• Entry: On bearish engulfing or internal BOS.
• SL: Above 3,288.00.
• TP: 3,214.00 (previous low).
1-Hour Setup:
• Wait for 1H candle rejection at FVG or last day’s high.
• Entry: 3,284–3,287.
• SL: 3,290.
• TP1: 3,214.00.
• TP2: 3,200.00.
4-Hour Setup:
• Use higher timeframe OB for re-entry.
• Look for price closing below 3,214.00 → opens short continuation toward 3,160 or deeper (OB at 3,100).
• Swing Trade Setup: Short from 3,284.00 → SL 3,290 → TP 3,100–3,080 (RRR: ~1:6).
⸻
7. CRT Model Evaluation
• C – Context: HTF structure shifted bearish after CHoCH; price rejected FVG and supply zones.
* R – Retracement: Price retraced into OB and FVG in premium, providing a sell opportunity.
• T – Trend Continuation: If 3,214 breaks cleanly, expect continuation toward 3,160 and possibly 3,100.
⸻
Summary
• Bias: Bearish under 3,284–3,287 zone.
• Key Levels to Watch:
• Resistance: 3,284–3,287 (FVG + OB).
• Support: 3,214–3,200 (liquidity pool + OB).
• Best Trade: Short from FVG zone on confirmation with TP at day low and deeper OBs.
GOLD 4H CHART ROUTE MAP UPDATE & TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEKHey Everyone,
Please see our updated 4h chart levels and targets for the coming week.
We are seeing price play between two weighted levels with a gap above at 3343 and a gap below at 3282. We will need to see ema5 cross and lock on either weighted level to determine the next range. We have a bigger range in play then usual.
We will see levels tested side by side until one of the weighted levels break and lock to confirm direction for the next range.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
BULLISH TARGET
3343
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3343 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3404
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3404 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3439
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3439 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3503
BEARISH TARGETS
3282
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3282 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
3224
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3224 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
SWING RANGE
3190 - 3138
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3138 WILL OPEN THE SECONDARY SWING RANGE
SECONDARY SWING RANGE
3088 - 3046
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
XAU / USD 4 Hour ChartHello traders. Happy Thursday. On the 4 hour chart, I have marked my area of interest to see if gold will keep pushing down or push back up to retest the breakdown area. Many times the overnight sessions get corrected with the NY open. Saying that, we may push up a bit only to come back down. Let's see how the 4 hour candle closes. Big G gets my thanks. Be well and trade the trend.
ZIGZAG wave-c has startedContinuing the previous gold analysis
It seems that wave-(b) is turning into a normal zigzag and wave-c has started from the zigzag. Wave-c of this zigzag could end in the range of $3200-3216 or $3104-3118.
After the zigzag ends, we will have another upward movement in gold.
Gold under Selling pressureTechnical analysis: Gold is being kept below the Hourly 4 chart’s Resistance zone of #3,292.80 - #3,300.80 despite the rejection on DX and continuous rise on equities, Gold didn’t manage to prepare the terrain for further the uptrend, according to my Technical estimations. Besides the High Selling Volume and evident Price-action showcasing of Bearish trend switch, #3,262.80 Support I mentioned which was about to be tested was invalidated and naturally Gold is on a decline (as I expected it throughout my recent remarks) and is Technicals what's keeping Gold Lower, relative to circumstances. Regardless of that, the Daily chart’s Support (Medium-term) is Trading just few points below, at #3,200.80, if broken it can open doors for #3,127.80 extension and Support mark test and is alone a positive development for Sellers ahead of the end of the Trading week.
My positions: All my Selling order are concluded at this point.
XAUUSD correcting to its 4H MA200.Gold (XAUUSD) has been trading within a Bullish Megaphone pattern since the start of the year. Last week's rejection on its top (Higher Highs trend-line) has resulted into a break below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line).
This has technically been the signal that started the previous 2 Bearish Legs, which both bottomed upon touching the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and once the 4H RSI got oversold below 30.00.
As a result, we expect more downside, targeting 3160.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Market Analysis – Labor Day Sell-Off & Key Levels [4h]TFMarket Analysis – Labor Day Sell-Off & Key Levels
Labor Day kicked off with a major sell-off during the Asian session, breaking structure as price plummeted from 3292.88 to 3221.40 before the EU session’s opening bell (2025-05-01). Whether this shocked traders or not, one thing became evident—3292 is a critical level, coinciding with the monthly Fibonacci level.
An overstretched price rise inevitably needs correction, and that confirmation has arrived. For a meaningful bull run, price must breach 3292 with strong momentum to signal recovery. Failure to reclaim this level will keep bearish sentiment alive for a while longer.
Key Levels to Monitor – 4H Timeframe
Bullish Signals
Watch for 4H candle closes at:
🔹 Above 3243 → Potential short-term bullish opportunity, range 3243-3263.
🔹 Above 3263 → Swing opportunity toward 3322, though consolidation may still form as bulls resist further decline.
🔹 Recovery attempt? Key bullish ranges to monitor: 3322 / 3332 / 3339 / 3342 / 3356 / 3363 / 3403. Stay tuned.
🔹 Major upside continuation → If price holds above 3403, broader global economic conditions may not be in great shape, potentially contradicting gold’s safe-haven narrative.
Bearish Signals
On the downside, bears haven’t shown full conviction yet—but keep an eye on:
🔻 Immediate important levels: 3200 / 3167 / 3134 / 3080 / 3057 / 3030 / 3005 / 2999 / 2966 / 2961 / 2952
🔻 Short-term bearish opportunities: 3253 / 3242 / 3232 / 3227 / 3211 / 3209 / 3200 / 3195 / 3185 / 3181 / 3178 / 3169.
🔻 While many traders favor these ranges, personally, I prefer locking in on key levels.
Final Thoughts
Markets tell a story—we just need to show up early to catch the best opportunities.
✅ Be independent. Be smart. Be confident.
✅ Trade with clarity—no rush, no noise, no distractions.
✅ Wait for confirmations. Then act.
GOLD WEEKLY CHART MID/LONG TERM ROUTE MAPHey Everyone,
Quick update on our weekly chart idea, it's been playing out beautifully, helping us track the move down and catch the move back up.
After hitting our final channel top target at 3281, we mentioned we would look for support forming above the channel. That’s exactly what happened, with price finding support outside the channel and giving us the bounce we anticipated.
We also got a body close above 3281, which completed the gap up to 3387. From here, we'll be watching for continued support above the channel, a retest of 3387, and a close above it to confirm the continuation higher.
If we fail to retest and close above 3387, we’ll likely see a reset back to the channel top. Should that support fail, we would expect a break of the EMA5 back into the channel, resetting the play inside the channel with all previous levels back in play.
This is the beauty of our Goldturn channels, drawn using weighted averages instead of pure price action. This unique approach helps us clearly identify fake-outs and real breakouts, cutting out much of the noise that usually confuses traders.
Moving forward, we’ll focus on smaller timeframes (1H and 4H) to buy dips off the weighted Goldturns, aiming for clean 30–40 pip moves. Ranging markets are perfect for this style, allowing us to capitalize on quick moves without getting caught in the chop of larger swings.
Thanks again for all your likes, comments, and follows, we really appreciate the support!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
Gold Long | Bullish Breakout Expected | Buy on DipsGold is showing bullish strength with higher highs and higher lows forming on the chart.
Price has respected key support around and is now aiming for resistance near .
Entry idea: Buy between
Stop Loss:
Target:
Trend: Bullish
Timeframe: [1} Hr
📌 Reason for Long:
Price above EMA
Strong demand zone at
Bullish price action (engulfing candle / breakout / etc.)
📊 Tags (Important for visibility):
#GOLD #XAUUSD #LONG #BUY #Bullish #TradingView #PriceAction
Gold depends on GDP numbersTechnical analysis: Gold naturally found Buyers as Buying pressure is evident on the charts from DX on Selling sequence. It is important to note that #3,300.80 is new / old Resistance, which was near Weekly High’s as Price-action could find strong rejection there and deny the Buying response in extension. If broken, Price-action will be calling for #3,327.80 extension once again which represents local Top's for current fractal. I will engage my orders accordingly and wait for suitable entry even though I have closed my order ahead of the final push above the Resistance. However, Gold re-tested and was again rejected on the Hourly 4 chart’s Support keeping the Bullish bias alive. The Engulfing candle Bearish reversal candle on Hourly 1 chart succeeded at rejecting the Price-action and catching already the #32% Fibonacci level. I expect the last Daily chart’s candle to test again the #3,272.80 former Resistance now turned to Support when DX finds the Support zone and engages relief rally.
My position: As mentioned above, Gold is ranging and Scalpers are getting most of the returns out of this Price-action. I will await GDP numbers and only then make my move.
Gold at $3,260: Buy the Fourth Dip?Gold prices have stabilized today after experiencing an earlier decline that represents the fourth dip down to the $3260 level over the past few sessions. The repeated defense of this support level could indicate strong buyer interest at these prices.
Recent reports suggest an easing of trade tensions which might be weakening demand for gold. But have tensions really eased to any great extent? Commerce Sectary Howard Lutnick announced yesterday the U.S. is close to 1 trade agreement with 1 mystery trade partner (rumored to be India? But why not brag about that if true) isn't the kind of progress that consoles me.
But is it time to buy?
The consistent support at $3,260 coupled with a potential move above $3,375 could provide the technical confirmation needed for renewed confidence in this kind of trade.
GOLD trades around $3,300, market lacks major impactOANDA:XAUUSD sare trading lower around the $3,300/oz flatline as easing US-China trade tensions dampen the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset, while investors await US economic data to gauge the Federal Reserve's policy direction.
OANDA:XAUUSD have been trading in a narrow range recently as the market awaits details of the first trade deal, which is expected to be announced this week or next.
OANDA:XAUUSD has reversed to a downside correction since last week as Trump made some very positive comments and the risk of stagflation was further ruled out, and gold prices continued to fall. Stagflation has pushed gold higher and as the market starts to price in this risk, a correction is natural, especially considering that “buying gold” has become the top trade and it is technically in overbought territory.
Looking at the larger picture, gold prices remain in an uptrend as real yields are likely to continue to fall amid the Fed’s easing. But in the short term, more positive news on tariffs could see gold prices continue to fall as the market adjusts to the new conditions.
OANDA:XAUUSD , traditionally seen as a hedge against political and financial uncertainty, hit a record high of $3,500.05 last week amid heightened uncertainty.
Investors will be watching economic data for the rest of the week, including Wednesday's personal consumption expenditure report and Friday's non-farm payrolls report.
Technical Outlook OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold continues to move sideways as the accumulation state takes place as the market has no fundamental impact of any sudden change. With the current position, gold is not qualified to increase or decrease significantly with the sideway area of attention in the range of 3,371 - 3,292 USD being the positions of the Fibonacci retracement of 0.236% and 0.382%.
However, overall, gold is still inclined to increase in the long term with the price channel as the main trend and support from EMA21 as the main support. As long as gold remains above/within the price channel, above EMA21, it still has the technical conditions for the main trend to be up, the declines should only be considered as short-term corrections and not an official trend.
During the day, the sideways accumulation state with the main uptrend will be noticed again by the following positions.
Support: 3,292 – 3,267 USD
Resistance: 3,371 USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3382 - 3380⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3386
→Take Profit 1 3374
↨
→Take Profit 2 3368
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3283 - 3285⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3279
→Take Profit 1 3291
↨
→Take Profit 2 3297
XAU/USD: Weak Support and Potential Reversal in FocusKey Features of the Chart:
Volume Profile Analysis:
The highlighted volume profile on the left shows concentrated trading activity around the 1D POC (Point of Control) at $3,272.200. This suggests the POC is a critical pivot level for the market.
Support Insights:
The horizontal yellow line labeled "Weak Support Because It Has Been Hit So Many Times" at $3,272.200 indicates a crucial support level. However, repeated tests of this level may weaken it, making it susceptible to a breakdown.
Market Sentiment:
The blue arrow suggests a potential upward movement from the current price. This could indicate a bullish bias if buyers defend the support at $3,272.200.
Current Price Action:
The price seems to hover near the weak support, showcasing market indecision. Traders are likely waiting for a clearer breakout or bounce signal.
Trading Plan:
Bullish Case:
If buyers manage to defend the weak support at $3,272.200, a potential rebound could occur.
Traders might consider long positions targeting resistance areas near $3,300 or higher.
Use a stop-loss just below the $3,270 level to manage risks.
Bearish Case:
If the price breaks below the weak support of $3,272.200, expect a bearish continuation toward lower levels, such as $3,250 or $3,200.
Short positions could be considered here, with a stop-loss above the POC.
Closing Thoughts: This chart provides a clear focus on critical support and volume zones. Traders should monitor price action around the 1D POC and weak support level for reliable signals.
Remember: Consistency | Discipline | Perseverance are the keys to staying ahead.
Gold Short: H&S and Wave 3 downOver here, I've labelled all the waves breakdown as well as drawing a tilted head-and-shoulders. I believe that we are going into a wave 3 (minute degree) that is supported by the formation of the right shoulder.
I expect the neckline to be broken which will then goes down to the first resistance provided by the lower blue trendline.
The next resistance in green will be our first TP target. This is where we can choose to reduce the position, or to adjust the stop loss down in order to ride the position. As the lower target cannot be seen without squeezing the chart and causing the waves breakdowns to be unclear, I will update again when that happens.
The stop loss is above the right shoulder.
Good luck!