GOLD Consolidation not over but long term still bullish.Gold / XAUUSD hasn't changed it's long term trend, which remains bullish inside a Channel Up since October 2023.
However, it is more likely than not, to extend the consolidation it is having since April 21st, which is no different than the 3 previous consolidation phases this Channel Up had.
After they got completed, strong rallies followed, the less strong of which was +18.51%.
Stay bullish, target 3700.
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XAUUSD trade ideas
XAUUSD: Is the Downtrend Likely to Continue?OANDA:XAUUSD is a classic case of a market continuing its downtrend after rejecting resistance within a clearly defined descending channel. This move indicates that sellers are stepping in and maintaining the bearish structure inside the channel.
If the downward momentum persists, we could see a move toward the 3,250 level , which aligns with a significant internal support area within the channel. This zone could serve as a short-term target. A decisive break below this level may open the door to further declines. However, failure to sustain this bearish move could result in a retest of the upper channel boundary.
Traders should watch for confirmation signals such as lower highs forming below the recent supply zone or strong bearish candles near resistance before considering short setups.
If you agree with this outlook or have any additional insights, feel free to share your thoughts!
Key Levels for the Month 06/2025 โทGoldโท๐ Key Levels Overview for the Month ๐
__________________________
Trend Base Lines
3112๐๐3259
3268๐๐3460
3370๐ป๐ป3703
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Resistances๐
3082
3169
3368
3417
3448
3473
3510
3564
3634
3713
3883
4049
Midsโทโทโท
2995
3256
3281
3309
3362
3390
3460
3717
Supports๐
3552
3386
3330
3250
3206
3122
3105
3086
2908
2821
Gold back within my Neutral RectangleTechnical analysis: Gold maintains Selling sentiment (remember the cycle I mentioned regarding #14-day symmetry for aggressive takedown / Traders are witnessing it) from yesterdayโs session Hourly 4 chartโs first Support break, however the pace has slowed down as Gold is already near #3,288.80 - #3,292.80 well known Support zone due Hourly 4 chart on critically Overbought condition near #3,327.80 local High's. Gold is isolated within Descending Channel formation and if there wasnโt DX on parallel decline, Gold would be significantly Lower under the circumstances. I highlighted that only catalyst which can revive the Price-action and kick-start the relief rally is on Fundamental side. The Hourly 4 chartโs indicators were showcasing that Gold was Overbought and most of my Intra-day pointers were about to make a Bearish roll-over as I believed that I should start preparing ourselves for a slight pullback (Short-term trend stays Bearish though however there will be Bull spikes certainly towards #3,327.80 - #3,332.80 local Resistance zone). Next Resistance is priced at #3,312.80 / break of it might extend the uptrend towards #3,327.80 Resistance in extension. Gold has invalidated solid Ascending Channel on Hourly 4 chart and if you recall, delivered #2 additional Higher Highโs (my chartโs explanation that Gold always delivers #3 Lower Low extensions ahead of full scale reversal, so practically I have one more Higher Highโs to expect according to the cycle).
My position: My break-out zones are intact as in withih my previous remarks as I will keep operating within #3,288.80 - #3,227.80 Neutral Rectangle as long as it lasts. If #3,288.80 - #3,275.80 gives away, #3,262.80 - #3,268.80 is zone to monitor.
Gold Breakdown Setup | Key Support Test IncomingThe market recently broke below a rising trendline and exited a consolidation zone, signaling potential weakness.
๐ After the breakdown, price formed a lower high and is now retesting the 3,290โ3,300 zone. If this minor resistance holds, we could see further bearish continuation.
๐ท Key Level to Watch:
Support around 3,212 โ this is a major area where price previously reacted.
๐ Scenario:
Expecting a rejection from current levels, leading to a potential move toward the support zone. If 3,212 breaks, it may open doors to even lower targets.
๐ก Trade Idea:
Wait for a confirmation (bearish structure) near the retest area. If confirmed, consider short setups with target around the support level.
โ
Always use proper risk management and confirm with your own analysis
THE KOG REPORT Bank Holiday tomorrow so we'll keep it simple and update the KOG Report on Tuesday ready for the week ahead. Please have a look at the last few KOG Reports to see how it went, wasn't a bad week at all.
This week, immediate red boxes are on the chart, there is a red box active above and the indicator is suggesting a potential retracement on the move. So we'll look for price to attempt the high, if failed we can expect the move downside into the order region where we may settle.
RED BOXES:
Break above 3365 for 3370, 3376, 3381, 3390 and 3403 in extension of the move
Break below 3350 for 3343, 3335, 3330, 3323 and 3310 in extension of the move
Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. Weโve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
no supply and no demand Iโve just noticed for the first time that the market is not able to close even a single momentum candle below the lower trigger line of the No Supply zone, and it is using that level as support โ while treating the upper trigger line as resistance.
As long as the market doesnโt close an H1 momentum candle below the lower trigger line, the market remains bullish. On the other hand, unless the market closes an H1 momentum candle above the upper trigger line of the No Demand zone, the market remains bearish. So, the market seems to be ranging between these two levels.
Whichever side the momentum candle closes on, thereโs a higher chance of price moving in that direction โ according to my point of view.
Do your own research for better perspective.
Trade Idea:
Aggressive Entry: As soon as price comes near the lower trigger line, we could look at CAB setups on M1/M3 around S2/S3 levels and trade upward towards the upper trigger line.
Safe Entry: Once a momentum candle closes above the upper trigger line of the No Supply zone, wait for a retest of the lower trigger line, and then look for a CAB setup to go long.
This entire setup was being blocked by the 200 SMA and 100 SMA on the H4 timeframe.
Inverse logic applies for the No Demand setup.
Analysis of gold trend next week, hope it will be helpful to yoThe U.S. deadline for imposing tariffs on the EU has been extended to July 9th, while Middle East tensions persist due to the ongoing confrontation between Israel and Iran. Historical data shows that gold volatility rises by an average of 25% during trade friction escalations, and gold prices can surge 3%-5% in a single day following geopolitical conflicts. If next week's tariff negotiations collapse or Middle East tensions deteriorate, gold prices could quickly rebound above $3,350 per ounce.
Pay close attention to the breakthrough of the support level at $3,270-$3,275 and the resistance level at $3,310-$3,320, and judge the shift of bullish and bearish forces by combining changes in trading volume.
Analysis of gold trend next week, hope it will be helpful to you
XAUUSD BUY@3270~3280
SL3260
TP1:3310~3320
Gold Intraday Trading Plan 5/30/2025Gold indeed behaved as predicted. It went down to 3245 and reversed above 3280 and continued until touching 3330. As shown in the chart, the trendline was broken and I am looking for buying opportunity from the retest of the trendline. If 3330 is broken, my 1st target will be 3345 and ultimate target for today is 3365.
Smart Trade Insight โ XAU/USD Technical BreakdownKey Levels & Technical Zones:
๐น Resistance Zone (๐ผ SELL Area):
๐ 3,315 โ 3,340
This area has been tested and rejected multiple times, as highlighted by the strong bearish wicks. The recent price action failed to break above it, triggering short interest.
๐น Minor Support Zone:
๐ Around 3,243
Acted as intraday bounce area previously, now likely to offer weak support in the coming move down.
๐น Major Demand Zone (๐ BUY Interest Zone):
๐ 3,120 โ 3,140
Labelled as "BEST SUPPORT DEMANDING ZONE" โ historical demand visible with strong bounce history. Ideal for monitoring bullish reversal opportunities.
๐ EMA Levels:
๐ด 50 EMA: 3,299
๐ต 200 EMA: 3,254
Current price action is hovering near the EMAs. The rejection at the resistance while below the 50 EMA indicates weakening bullish momentum.
๐ Market Structure Overview:
The double-top formation near the resistance shows exhaustion in buying.
Lower highs forming โ structure turning bearish short-term.
Solid rejection confirms that this is a valid zone to initiate short positions ๐๐.
๐ Forecast Path:
๐ฎ Projected Move:
Price is expected to break below minor support at 3,243.
Intermediate target: 3,206, then 3,167 ๐ .
Final destination: Demand Zone at 3,120 โ 3,140 ๐ฉ for potential bounce ๐.
๐ฌ "Market not break the resistance level and rejected solid โ this is a good entry for short-term sell trades." โ
โ
Trade Idea Summary:
๐ฅ Bias: Short
๐ฏ TP Targets: 3,206 โ 3,167 โ 3,122
๐ SL Suggestion: Above 3,340 resistance zone
๐งญ Risk-Reward Setup: Favorable for short-term traders
The latest gold trend analysis strategy on June 2
Core influencing factors
Dollar trend: The rebound of the US dollar index suppresses gold prices, but if the PCE data is lower than expected, the US dollar may fall back and provide support for gold.
Fed policy expectations: The market's expectations of interest rate cuts this year (currently priced at about 2 times) may limit the downward space of gold prices, but we need to be wary of hawkish rhetoric disturbances.
Risk aversion: Trade situation and geopolitical uncertainty may intermittently boost gold demand.
Technical key positions: $3300-3310 is a strong resistance zone, and $3260-3250 is short-term support.
Market outlook
Bearish signal:
The daily level failed to stand firm at the 3300 mark, and the 1-hour moving average turned downward, with short-term momentum biased to the bearish side.
If the US dollar continues to rebound or the PCE data is stronger than expected, the gold price may fall to the 3260-3250 support range.
Bullish signal:
If PCE data is weak or risk aversion heats up, gold prices may test the 3300-3315 resistance zone again.
Under the wide range of fluctuations at the monthly level, the buying support below 3260 may be strong.
Operation strategy
Short-term trading:
Short-term opportunity: When the rebound to the 3305-3315 range is under pressure, short with a light position, stop loss above 3320, target 3280-3265.
Long order opportunities: If it pulls back to the 3260-3250 area and stabilizes (such as the K-line shrinks or a hammer line appears), you can try long orders with a stop loss of 3240 and a target of 3280-3300.
Mid-term layout:
If it effectively falls below 3250 at the beginning of next week, it may open up the downward space to 3220-3200; on the contrary, if it stands firm at 3315, it will look up to 3340-3360.
Risk warning:
Market volatility may increase after Friday's PCE data, so be alert to rapid reversals.
Avoid chasing ups and downs, and pay attention to changes in volume near key positions.
Key points
Resistance: 3305-3315 (strong if broken), 3340 (previous high)
Support: 3280 (intraday), 3260-3250 (strong and weak boundary), 3220 (medium term)
Summary: Gold is short-term technically bearish, but fundamental support is still there. It is recommended to treat it with a volatile mindset, focus on the breakthrough direction of the 3300-3260 range, and be cautious in holding positions before and after the data.
GOLD LONG FROM SUPPORT
GOLD SIGNAL
Trade Direction: long
Entry Level: 3,281.17
Target Level: 3,348.67
Stop Loss: 3,236.17
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 7h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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XAU/USD Buy Setup Explanation (Using Fibonacci Levels)This chart presents a bullish trading setup on gold (XAU/USD) based on a Fibonacci retracement strategy. It suggests a buy opportunity after a pullback.
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Fibonacci Levels:
> 0.0% (Top): $3,331 โ recent swing high (used as reference)
> 23.6%: $3,312 โ minor resistance zone
> 38.2%: $3,297 โ initial pullback area
> 50.0%: $3,290 โ psychological mid-level
> 61.8% (Golden Ratio): $3,280 โ key Fibonacci support
> 78.6%: $3,266 โ deeper retracement support
> 100% (Bottom): $3,249 โ recent swing low
๐ช Buy Zone (Between 50% and 61.8%):
The marked BUY ZONE is between $3,290 and $3,280, aligning with the Fibonacci golden pocket.
This is a high-probability reversal area, as it combines:
Strong Fibonacci confluence (50%โ61.8%)
Prior price reaction zones (structure-based support)
: TP1: $3,320 โ aligns with previous structure zone and 23.6% retracement.
: Final Target: $3,350 โ a retest of the major resistance and previous high.
๐ Conclusion:
This is a classic Fibonacci retracement long setup:
Wait for a bullish reversal pattern (e.g., pin bar, engulfing) in the buy zone.
As long as the price holds above $3,266, the bullish structure remains valid.
Ideal for swing traders looking to catch a bounce off the golden ratio support.
forecast 02/06/2025XAUUSD Forecast | VSA & Trend Line Analysis | Gold Price Prediction
In this video, I share my detailed forecast for XAUUSD (Gold vs. USD) using Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) and trend line strategies. Watch as I break down the market structure, identify key levels, and explain the logic behind potential moves in gold.
GOLD Short 29/05Gold boosted above the previous lower high seemingly breaking structure. However I believe this was just a liquidity grab taking stops from above the right shoulder. Still anticipating price to move down. Usd rates not lowered. Trade war simmers as Trump 'not allowed' to set tariffs. Usd strength should continue.