Pay attention to 3360 and go short if it does not break🗞News side:
1. China and the United States hold talks on trade issues
2. India-Pakistan conflict escalates again
3. Geopolitical risks
📈Technical aspects:
At present, gold has fallen below the trend line support. In the short term, we should focus on the battle for 3360. This point is not only the previous support-to-resistance level, but also the key signal for judging the trend reversal. If it cannot hold on to this position, the short trend will continue; if it recovers effectively, it may return to above 3400. Before losing the defensive line (the last starting and falling point) 3360-3362, the bears will still have the upper hand. It just so happens that the 4H lifeline is also in the 3360-3362 area. If the suppression is successful, the price will enter the 3362-3284 area from the lifeline to the lower track.
The rebound layout of the US market operation is short-selling, with the target at 3340-3330, and further support at 3310-3300.
If you agree with this view, or have a better idea, please leave a message in the comment area. I look forward to hearing different voices.
TVC:GOLD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD FXOPEN:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD
XAUUSD trade ideas
Gold Climbs on Safe-Haven DemandGold climbed to nearly $3,360 per ounce on Tuesday, marking its highest level in over a week, as renewed tariff threats from President Trump increased safe-haven demand. Trump announced a 100% tariff on foreign films and signaled upcoming measures targeting pharmaceuticals. Investors are now focused on the Federal Reserve’s policy decision, with rates expected to stay unchanged despite Trump’s push for cuts.
Resistance is expected at $3,385, then $3,450 and $3,500. Support stands at $3,300, followed by $3,265 and $3,200.
Gold is expected to pull back, short gold!Fundamentals:
Focus on the Fed's interest rate decision and Powell's speech;
I think the Fed will keep the interest rate decision unchanged this time, at least it will not announce a rate cut this time, which may suppress the gold market;
Technical aspects:
Before the Fed's interest rate decision, gold is currently in a volatile state. However, relatively speaking, it is currently in a volatile and bearish state, with short-term resistance in the 3395-3405 area; and gold has repeatedly tested the 3370-3360 below during the retracement process. After multiple tests, gold may be more likely to break through this support area; the key support below is in the 3360-3350 area, followed by the 3320-3310 area.
Trading strategy:
Consider shorting gold in the 3395-3405 area, TP: 3370-3360
XAUUSD - Buy - A Shape Recovery - Gap fill - Strength
A Shape Recovery
Return to Previous Level imminent
Profit taking at NZ open from the massive run-up yesterday.
COT data didn’t show any buying of longs on Monday It could have driven down lower, but instead, they drove it up.
First, it should fill the gap, then continue on to 4,000… then 7,000 over time, of course.
The USA is still in hot water — Trump has ruffled a lot of feathers.
No one trusts him, no one likes him — a snake in the grass.
China is hunkering down until he’s gone.
Xi Jinping will not tolerate Trump’s snide remarks or his constant demeaning of him and China.
So, the USD will likely face 145% tariffs for quite some time.
It’s the perfect tool to help destroy Americas economy and they did it to themselves.
Weak Dollar. Strong Gold.
"China has stated it will not engage until the U.S. cancels its 145% tariffs, a condition the U.S. has not met. Despite hints of openness from both sides and China evaluating U.S. approaches, no formal agreement has been confirmed, and conflicting statements suggest the situation remains fluid. The lack of a signed deal, combined with China’s retaliatory 125% tariffs and its focus on diversifying trade partners, casts doubt on an imminent resolution"
XauUsd bullish outlook✅ Reasons for Entry:
✅ Third Touch on H4 Extreme Trendline confirms clean anchor & rejection
✅ Strong RBS zone at 3235 — previously supported upward impulsive move
✅ Visible demand rejection wicks on H1 and M15 — signs of buyer defense
✅ Bullish market structure still intact on D1 (trend continuation bias)
✅ Extreme Trendline + Structure + Rejection = High-probability setup
Auto Generated by Custom Smart Trading Chart AI
GOLD FOMC Interest Rate Decision (May 7, 2025)
The Federal Reserve held rates steady at 4.25%–4.50%, maintaining its stance since December 2024. The decision reflects heightened uncertainty from escalating U.S.-China trade tensions and mixed economic signals, including stagflation risks (rising unemployment and inflation). Chair Jerome Powell emphasized vigilance toward trade policy impacts but avoided signaling imminent rate cuts, despite market expectations for easing later in 2025.
Geopolitical Conflicts Affecting Gold Prices
U.S.-China Trade War Escalation
New tariffs and retaliatory measures have intensified safe-haven demand for gold. Prices hit record highs in April 2025 (NT$3,518/gram in Taiwan) as investors sought protection from market volatility.
Renewed trade talks (e.g., U.S.-China meetings in Switzerland) caused a brief 1.3% gold price dip on optimism, but analysts project prices to rebound to $3,500–$4,000/oz by late 2025 amid unresolved tensions.
Central Bank Gold Accumulation
Central banks, led by China and Russia, are aggressively stockpiling gold to diversify from USD assets and hedge against sanctions.
Prolonged military tensions continue to drive gold’s role as a crisis hedge. Escalation could push prices higher, while de-escalation might temporarily reduce demand.
Middle East Instability
Conflicts between Iran and Saudi Arabia disrupt global supply chains and energy markets, amplifying gold’s appeal as a safe haven during periods of heightened risk.
Dollar Weakness and Inflation Risks
A declining U.S. Dollar Index (-0.3% on May 7) and tariff-driven inflation fears have bolstered gold’s attractiveness. The Fed’s cautious stance on rate cuts reinforces gold’s appeal in a negative real yield environment.
Gold Price Outlook
Short-term: Prices may face volatility from trade talk progress or Fed policy shifts but remain supported by geopolitical risks and central bank buying.
Long-term: Analysts (e.g., UBS, Bank of America) forecast gold reaching $3,500–$4,000/oz in 2025 due to structural demand, tariff impacts, and unresolved global conflicts.
In summary, gold’s trajectory hinges on geopolitical stability, central bank actions, and Fed policy, with bullish momentum likely to persist amid fragmented global trade and economic uncertainty.
Bullish Gold: Ride the Wave with Pullback BuysOn the daily gold chart, there was a sharp upward surge on Monday, and the price rebounded above the $3300 mark. Normally, the upward movement on the daily chart could potentially drive the price towards the high point near the upper Bollinger Band at around $3500. This also means that the monthly chart recovers the upper shadow and forms a second upward thrust. So, there is ample upside potential. We should focus on the sustainability of this upward momentum.
On the 4 - hour chart, another wave of strength is needed. A significant rally is required to widen the upper Bollinger Band and establish an absolute one - sided bullish trend. Therefore, although the bullish outlook is clear for now, there is still a possibility of some adjustments. Currently, the support below is around the $3340 - $3350 range, with the dividing line being near the early - morning low of $3330. If there is an opportunity for the price to pull back to the support area, one can go long and bet on the upward trend. Today, keep an eye on the resistance levels at $3385 - $3395 - $3400.
XAUUSD
buy@3350-3355-3360
tp:3370-3380-3400
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GOLD Price Analysis: Key Insights for Next Week Trading DecisionGold ended last week under pressure as investors booked profits following improved risk appetite, driven by easing trade tensions and a strong U.S. labor market report.
📰 NFP came in at +177K in April, with the unemployment rate steady at 4.2%, matching forecasts—possibly keeping the Fed cautious on policy easing.
Technically, Gold remains bullish but is now testing the $3,200 support zone, and sellers are gaining momentum.
As we head into next week, gold price action is at a critical decision point, and whether buyers or sellers will take control is unclear.
In this video, I break down the key technical zones, share my trading plan, and discuss potential opportunities to help navigate the uncertainty ahead.
Disclaimer:
This is my take based on experience and what I see on the charts. It’s not financial advice—always do your research and consult a licensed advisor before trading.
#GoldAnalysis #XAUUSD #GoldPrice #ForexTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #FundamentalAnalysis #GoldOutlook #FedRateDecision #NFP #GoldBreakdown #GoldBulls #GoldBears #USJobsReport #ForexMentor
GOLD UNDER PRESSURE – Is a Massive Drop Coming?Gold (XAU/USD) has just tapped into a major supply zone around the $3,390 - $3,450 level and is showing signs of rejection with a sharp 1.16% drop.
Key Highlights:
Price: $3,391.220
Bearish Rejection observed at the supply zone (marked in blue), indicating potential downside.
Volume Profile shows heavy distribution in this zone, suggesting strong institutional selling.
First Major Support sits around $3,200, which aligns with historical structure and demand interest.
If broken, expect further decline towards $3,043, and possibly $2,626 in an extended correction.
What To Watch:
Red Arrows indicate possible drop zones if supply dominance continues.
Price needs to hold above $3,390 to regain bullish strength, otherwise, we’re looking at a correction.
Keep an eye on U.S. economic news (marked with flag) that could add volatility.
My Take:
We are in a potential distribution phase. If momentum fails to break above the current supply zone, gold could retrace deeply. The $3,200 level is critical — break it, and the bears will feast.
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Drop your thoughts below — Is gold going back to $3,000? Or will the bulls surprise us again?
Gold awaits Fed / Buy every dipTechnical analysis: Wednesday’s session Inverted Hammer practically took Gold nowhere as Hourly 1 chart remained ranged within Higher High’s Upper and Lower zone, closing out last and this week on an expected positive note. The Monthly (#1M) candle remains on decent gains (# +11.57%) and the last two sessions on the second Highest Volume throughout April - May (this is translated to Gold’s cyclical behavior which I spotted lately when #2-High Volumed sessions are delivered, strong move follows). Despite the Higher High’s, it is clear that since the #3,400.80 local High’s, Gold undergoes a consolidation phase with equal demand and supply, which according to previous models is an Resistance zone preparation for the next leg Lower or Higher regarding Weekly chart (#1W). I remain idle until Fed announcement while Buying every dip last #2-session horizon.
Gold Hits Key Resistance – Will It Break Out or Pull Back? Gold has been moving in a downtrend, and there's a clear descending trendline marked in red. The price has just reached that trendline right around the 3316 level, which also aligns with a horizontal resistance at 3329 — making this a very strong resistance zone.
The price surged from the support area near 3224, breaking through minor resistances until it reached the current level. But what we need to keep an eye on is that momentum indicators like MACD and Stochastic below the chart are starting to show overbought signals, which could mean the price might pull back or at least slow down.
🎯 Expected scenario now:
If the price fails to break above 3329 and can't push through the trendline, we might see a corrective drop toward 3269, and possibly down to 3224 again.
However, if the price breaks above this zone with strong volume and holds above it, we could see a continued bullish move toward 3352 — which looks like an ideal selling zone.
Bearish and bullish possibility The market created a 4h descending triangle and it broke out and retested but now it seems to be creating an ascending triangle pattern below, if the descending triangle plays out we could see the market reach within the weekly fvg at the 3185 area which will present buying opportunities and if the ascending triangle plays out we could reach the 3387 area, overall we just have to wait and react accordingly
Long Gold Impulsive wave. (4H)# XAU Trading Plan (4H Chart)
## Entry
- Buy at completion of wave 4 correction
- Must coincide with 0.50 Fib retracement
- Confirm with impulse candle breaking wave 4 high
## Wave Structure
- potentialy 5 wave up
- Wave 3 cannot be shortest impulse
- Wave 4 must not overlap wave 1
## Risk
- Stop loss below wave 4 low
- Risk 1-3% of capital
## Targets
-Wave 5 at 3434.45 or the next resistance
-Floating profit
## Exit Rules
- break support 3250 area
Gold Pullback Incoming!Gold has struggled to break through its daily highs for the past week. I am looking for another push up to the $3360-$3370 range. If it fails to break that level again, we may see support levels around $3200 being retested. In my opinion, there is even potential for it to go lower. I'd love to hear your thoughts in the comments!
*Side note:* With the U.S. dollar falling in value and ongoing economic uncertainty, I believe gold has tremendous upside potential over the next 12-18 months. FX:XAUUSD