XAUUSD Smart Money Technical Analysis – Bullish Potential XAUUSD Smart Money Technical Analysis – Bullish Potential from Strong Support
Gold (XAUUSD) is currently trading around $3,291.780, showing a potential bullish reversal setup from the strong support zone after a clear liquidity sweep and market structure shifts.
🔍 Key Technical Highlights:
✅ Strong Support Zone (Demand)
Price is reacting from a major demand zone (Strong Low) between $3,275 – $3,225, a level that previously triggered bullish rallies.
Multiple Breaks of Structure (BOS) and CHoCH indicate previous bullish control and a possible re-accumulation phase.
✅ CHoCH Near Support
A recent Change of Character (CHoCH) around the support area shows the first signs of smart money accumulation.
Liquidity below recent lows has been swept, triggering possible bullish intent.
✅ Bullish FVG (Fair Value Gap)
A clear Bullish FVG remains unmitigated around the mid-range, offering target confluence at $3,349.560.
Price may aim to rebalance inefficiency and fill the FVG as part of the bullish move.
✅ Resistance Zone Above
The resistance area near $3,325 – $3,350 acts as a short-term target for long positions.
Further resistance lies at the Buy-Side Liquidity & Weak High zone around $3,450 if momentum sustains.
🧠 Smart Money Concept Interpretation:
Liquidity Grab: Price dipped into strong demand to collect sell-side liquidity before potential reversal.
CHoCH + BOS Alignment: Indicates the market may now transition into a bullish phase.
FVG as Magnet: Price is drawn toward unfilled value zones—ideal for bullish target projection.
🎯 Trade Idea (Educational Purposes Only):
Bias: Bullish
Entry: Around current zone ($3,290)
Target: $3,349.560 (FVG zone)
Invalidation/SL: Below strong low (~$3,225)
XAUUSD trade ideas
XAUUSD – Smart Money Sell Setup during New York Session | ICT St
Gold (XAUUSD) has just completed a classic liquidity grab above the London session highs, forming a potential Judas Swing as New York begins.
On the 4H timeframe, we clearly have a bearish BOS (Break of Structure), and price has returned to a Premium zone within a bearish FVG and OB (Order Block).
Today is NFP Friday, and after the Fed kept rates steady mid-week, we’re expecting high volatility.
Current price action has swept the overnight liquidity and is now reacting inside a Repricing Block, aligning perfectly with the NY Midnight Open level.
🎯 My Sell Plan (Live Execution):
Sell Limit: 3306.50
SL: 3317.50 (Above OB high)
TP1: 3281.20
TP2: 3268.50
TP3: 3253.90
🧠 Bias: Bearish
🕒 Session: New York
🧮 ADR: 43 pts
📉 Market Structure: Bearish
This setup follows the ICT methodology using time, liquidity, structure, and displacement.
If we break above 3317.50 with strong displacement, the idea becomes invalid.
Let's see if Smart Money takes it down into Friday’s close.
Gold (XAU/USD): Supply Zone Rejection & Bearish Breakdown Chart Breakdown:
Supply zone rejection: Gold revisited the “supply zone” (light green/grey area) and failed to break above — a classic signal of seller dominance.
Uptrend invalidated: A sharp rise (steep black trendline) ended with a peak marked by the green arrow, followed by a decisive breakdown.
Ichimoku Cloud test: Prices slipped through the Ichimoku components, reinforcing the shift to bearish sentiment.
Potential targets: The red/green risk‑reward box highlights a short position, targeting ~3,347 then ~3,318 levels (blue labels) as initial support zones.
Strong supply base: The extensive grey zone below marks a "stronger supply zone" — this could cap any modest bounce and keep the downtrend intact.
🔍 Interpretation:
Bias: Bearish — sellers have taken control after a failed breakout.
Strategy: Short on rallies toward the mid‑green/red box (~3,373–3,380), targeting ~3,347 first and then ~3,319. Watch for support at the strong supply region (~3,292) for potential reversal or consolidation.
Risk management: Keep stop above the red zone—above recent highs (~3,380+) to limit risk.
🚀 In a nutshell: After failing to break supply and losing its short‑term uptrend, gold appears poised for a pullback. The next key levels to watch are ~3,347 and ~3,319—where buyers might step back in, or the downtrend continues toward the deeper supply base.
Gold (XAU/USD) in Symmetrical Triangle – Short‑Term Squeeze,Price Structure & Technical Setup
Gold is consolidating within a symmetrical triangle, showing lower highs and higher lows—a classic precursor to breakout in either direction
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Trendlines converge tightly around $3,326–$3,334, hinting at imminent directional acceleration
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🎯 Key Levels & Targets
Scenario Trigger Confirm Area Targets Stop Loss
Bullish Breakout above $3,344–$3,350 $3,369 → $3,396 → $3,422–$3,550 ~$3,340
Bearish Breakdown below ~$3,326–$3,320 $3,320 → $3,300 → $3,297 → $3,255 ~$3,335–$3,340
A breakout above $3,344–$3,350 validated with volume may drive prices toward $3,400+, with extended targets up to $3,550 or higher in bullish conditions
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Time Price Research
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A drop below $3,326–$3,320 risks further decline, targeting $3,300, $3,297, and eventually $3,255 if breakdown momentum builds .
📉 Market Context & Drivers
U.S. dollar strength, easing safe-haven demand, and optimistic trade sentiment are constraining gold’s upside unless breakout forces emerge .
Key upcoming catalysts: FOMC guidance, U.S. macro data (GDP, inflation), and geopolitical developments—their tone could tip the bias direction .
⚙️ Trade Rules & Risk Management
Wait for a confirmed breakout or breakdown—do not trade mid-range.
Confirm break with at least one close outside the triangle and rising volume .
Position sizing: Risk 1–2% per trade, adjust stop-loss to price structure ($8–$15 depending on volatility).
Take profits in stages: scale out at minor milestones (first targets), trail stop for extended targets.
Avoid chasing price within the middle of the triangle—risk/reward is unfavorable.
🧠 Why This Plan?
Follows textbook symmetrical triangle trading methodology: entry on breakout, stop beyond pattern opposite side, projection based on triangle height .
Aligns with broader outlook: bearish unless convincing upside breakout appears, consistent with analyst consensus hedging current bull exhaustion and wait‑and‑see on policy signals .
✅ Summary
Gold is coiling inside a tight triangle range near $3,326–$3,334, with breakout potential identified to either side:
Bullish breakout over $3,344–$3,350 targets up to $3,550 or beyond.
Bearish breakdown under $3,326–$3,320 risks slide towards $3,300–$3,255.
Wait for confirmation, apply disciplined risk controls, and let volume validate the move.
XAUUSD ANALYSYS 💸GOLD💸
Market Outlook: Bullish
• Price broke out of a downtrend channel and is now forming higher highs and higher lows — clear sign of a trend reversal.
• Current move is a pullback after a strong push up.
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📍 Key Zones:
• Buy Zones and Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) are marked.
• These are areas where buyers may step in again.
• Price is pulling back into these zones — potential long entry area.
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🎯 Target:
• The top red line marks a liquidity zone or resistance.
• Price is likely aiming to reach this area next.
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📈 Trade Setup Idea:
• Buy on pullback to the FVG / Buy Zone.
• Stop Loss: Below the Buy Zone.
• Take Profit: At the previous high (resistance zone).
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⚠️ Risk to Watch:
• If price breaks below the Buy Zone, bullish setup is invalidated — wait for new structure.
Potential bearish drop?The Gold (XAU/USD) has reacted off the pivot and could drop to the 1st support.
Pivot: 3,306.31
1st Support: 3,239.07
1st Resistance: 3,357.09
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
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Gold (XAU/USD) 30-Min Chart Analysis – August 1, 2025Structure Summary:
CHoCH (Change of Character) confirmed after price broke the previous lower high, signaling a potential trend reversal.
Price has since formed a bullish falling wedge (blue trendlines), a classic continuation pattern after CHoCH.
Volume spikes during reversal attempts suggest accumulation.
Trade Setup:
Entry: Breakout above wedge resistance.
Stop Loss: Below recent swing low near 3280 area (red zone).
Target: Around 3315–3320 zone (blue box), aligned with previous demand-turned-supply area.
📌 Outlook:
Bullish breakout expected if momentum sustains.
Watch for confirmation candle with volume above the wedge.
Clean R:R setup with tight SL and wide TP potential.
📊 Technical Bias: Bullish
❗Risk Management: Adjust position size based on lot exposure and account size.
SHORT | Gold | 4H Chart Direction: Bearish
Moving Average: Blue < Red
Pattern Impulse: Impulse correction
Fib Retracement: 38.2
MACD > 0
1st Target = 3302
2nd Target = 3290
Lots: 0.02
RISK: Economic instability still begs the question around whether commodities continue higher over the coming months.
Trade 1/20
downtrend below 3300 , after ADP-NF⭐️GOLDEN INFORMATION:
The Federal Reserve’s policy statement noted that economic activity has slowed in the first half of the year, although the unemployment rate remains low and inflation is still “somewhat elevated.” The Fed reaffirmed its commitment to achieving maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2% target, while also acknowledging that “uncertainty around the economic outlook remains elevated.”
Earlier data showed that U.S. GDP grew in the second quarter, but underlying details painted a softer picture. Consumer spending cooled, and business investment declined significantly. According to Reuters, most economists now forecast full-year GDP growth at 1.5%, below the Fed’s 1.8% projection.
⭐️Personal comments NOVA:
Gold prices reacted negatively as the FED kept interest rates unchanged and Chairman POWELL's hawkish stance. Selling pressure below 3300 is being maintained.
⭐️SET UP GOLD PRICE:
🔥SELL GOLD zone: 3360- 3362 SL 3367
TP1: $3350
TP2: $3340
TP3: $3330
🔥BUY GOLD zone: $3249-$3247 SL $3242
TP1: $3258
TP2: $3270
TP3: $3285
⭐️Technical analysis:
Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable SELL order.
⭐️NOTE:
Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well
- take the number of lots that match your capital
- Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account
- Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
Gold (XAU/USD) Technical Analysis:Gold began a corrective move with today’s market open and is currently testing the $3,350 support zone, with further downside potential toward $3,310.
🔹 Bearish Scenario:
If the price breaks below $3,350 and holds, a continued correction toward $3,310 is likely.
🔹 Bullish Scenario:
If the price breaks above $3,365 and sustains momentum, it could open the way toward $3,390, and with further bullish pressure, extend to $3,430.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This analysis is not financial advice. It is recommended to monitor the markets and carefully analyze the data before making any investment decisions.
How to seize the best entry point for gold?Gold continued its bullish trend from last Friday, rising to a high of 3385 yesterday. However, the upward momentum failed to sustain, and new highs were not reached during today's Asian and European trading sessions. The short-term bullish trend has ended, and the market is showing signs of correction. Currently, gold is facing downward pressure in the short term, and the short-term trend is volatile. Strategically, we can watch for a rebound to the 3375-3385 area during the European trading session and try to participate in short-term short selling. The target is below 3365-3355. The long-term structure remains bullish. Therefore, if the price falls back to the 3355-3340 area and stabilizes, we can still consider entering long positions to continue the medium-term uptrend. In terms of trading, we should pay attention to the rhythm of the market, betting on rebound resistance with short-term short positions and then going long on dips, maintaining flexibility.
XAU / USD Daily ChartHello traders. We are at an area of interest for me which is marked on the chart. We can push down to fill that wick, or reject and move back up a bit to take out any existing short positions in profit. I will post a lower time frame chart shortly. We will see Pre NY volume starting in a little under 2 hours. 7:20 am est here in the US is when we someimes see a shift to sometimes partially correct the overnight session's move. Not saying that's what will happen, just explaining what I see happen a lot of the time. Let's see how things play out. Be well and trade the trend. Shout out to Big G.
Technical indicators are bullish across the boardInfluenced by the NFP data, gold prices rose strongly, fully recovering last week's losses. The current gold market has broken the previous bull-bear equilibrium and remains in a strong upward trend. We are currently bullish but will not chase the rise. We will wait for gold to fall back and stabilize before trying to go long. Gold is currently in a sideways consolidation. If gold touches the upper short-term resistance of 3365-3370 again in the European session and encounters resistance and pressure, you can consider shorting with a light position and waiting for a pullback. If the gold price breaks up strongly, pay attention to the key suppression level above 3375-3385.
As the price of gold continues to rise, the support has moved up. Pay attention to the short-term support of 3345-3330 below. If it retreats and stabilizes, you can consider going long. Independent traders must strictly implement trading plans, and those who are not sure about the market must set stop-loss orders.
OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold (XAU/USD) - Market Structure Analysis Points to Next MoveThe provided 4-hour chart for Gold (XAU/USD) displays a market structure analysis incorporating concepts like Break of Structure (BOS), Change of Character (CHoCH), Fair Value Gaps (FVG), and defined support and target (resistance) levels. The price has shown a recent bullish trend, marked by higher highs and higher lows, confirmed by BOS signals. Currently, the price is consolidating around the 1st support level after reacting to a FVG.
Current Position: Consolidating around the 1st support level (approximately $3,365.028 - $3,353.094).
Support Levels:
1st support: Immediate support zone.
2nd support: Lower support zone ($3,328.619 - $3,320.000).
GL Zone & Support Zone: Confluence of a Golden Level and support ($3,299.096 - $3,290.067).
MAJOR SUP ZONE: Significant historical support area ($3,280.000 - $3,273.685).
Resistance Levels (Targets):
1st TG: Target/resistance zone ($3,392.891 - $3,402.807), containing a FVG.
2nd TG: Higher target/resistance zone ($3,413.659 - $3,423.805), also containing a FVG.
Market Structure: Evident bullish market structure with BOS confirmations, although a recent CHoCH suggests a potential shift or at least a temporary pause in the aggressive uptrend. Multiple FVGs indicate areas where price might find support or resistance.
Potential Trading Scenarios
Bullish Continuation: If the price respects the 1st support level and moves to fill the lower FVG within the 1st TG, a long opportunity could arise targeting the 2nd TG. Confirmation would be a break above the upper boundary of the 1st TG.
Bearish Retracement: If the 1st support fails to hold, the price could retrace towards the 2nd support level. A break below the 1st support and a failure to hold the FVG within the 1st TG would signal this scenario.
Range Trading: The price could consolidate between the 1st support and 1st TG levels, offering short-term trading opportunities within this range.
Explanation of Specific Elements
BOS (Break of Structure): Indicates a continuation of the current trend. A bullish BOS occurs when the price makes a higher high, confirming the uptrend.
CHoCH (Change of Character): Suggests a potential shift in the market's behavior. A bearish CHoCH after a bullish trend might indicate weakening buying pressure and a possibility of a reversal or a significant pullback.
FVG (Fair Value Gap): Represents an inefficiency in the market where there were aggressive price movements with less trading volume on one side. These gaps can act as future support or resistance levels as the market often tries to fill them.
Support Levels: Price levels where buying pressure is expected to outweigh selling pressure, potentially halting a downtrend.
Target/Resistance Levels (TG): Price levels where selling pressure is expected to outweigh buying pressure, potentially halting an uptrend.
GL Zone & Support Zone (Golden Level): This likely refers to a support level coinciding with a Fibonacci Golden Ratio level, often considered a high-probability reversal zone.
MAJOR SUP ZONE: A significant historical support level where strong buying interest has been seen in the past.
TradingView "Publish Idea" Post Based on the Chart
Title: Gold (XAU/USD) - Bullish Structure Consolidating at Support with Breakout Potential
Analysis:
Gold (XAU/USD) on the 4-hour timeframe shows a clear bullish market structure confirmed by multiple Breaks of Structure (BOS). After a strong upward move, the price is currently consolidating around the 1st support level ($3,365.028 - $3,353.094), which also aligns with a Fair Value Gap (FVG).
The presence of a recent Change of Character (CHoCH) suggests that the aggressive bullish momentum might have temporarily subsided, and we could be seeing a period of accumulation before the next move. The price action within the FVG near the 1st TG ($3,392.891 - $3,402.807) will be crucial.
Potential Scenarios & Trading Plan:
Bullish Continuation: If the 1st support holds and the price breaks above the upper boundary of the FVG within the 1st TG, it would signal a likely continuation of the bullish trend.
Long Entry: Upon a confirmed breakout above $3,402.807.
Target 1: The 2nd TG zone ($3,413.659 - $3,423.805), which also contains a FVG.
Stop Loss: Place below the 1st support level (e.g., below $3,353.000) to manage risk.
Bearish Retracement: Failure to hold the 1st support could lead to a deeper retracement.
Short Entry: On a confirmed break below $3,353.000.
Target 1: The 2nd support zone ($3,328.619 - $3,320.000).
Stop Loss: Place above the 1st support level.
Key Levels to Watch:
Support: $3,365.028 - $3,353.094, $3,328.619 - $3,320.000, $3,299.096 - $3,290.067.
Resistance (Targets): $3,392.891 - $3,402.807, $3,413.659 - $3,423.805.
How to accurately capture golden trading opportunities?Bullish trend is still the main trend of gold at present. After rising to 3368 at the opening today, it fell under pressure and fluctuated. Technically, it has tested the pressure level and needs to be adjusted. The overall high-level carrying capacity has also declined, so it is not advisable to chase the rise too much. In terms of operation, it is recommended to wait for the price to stabilize before buying more. Judging from the current gold trend, the upper short-term resistance is in the 3380-3385 area, and the key pressure is at the 3395-3400 line; the lower short-term support is in the 3365-3355 area, and the key support is in the 3350-3345 range. The overall suggestion is to arrange long orders on dips around the support area, and try to maintain a stable wait-and-see attitude in the middle position. I will prompt the specific operation strategy at the bottom, please pay attention in time.
Gold Trading Strategy: Buy in batches as gold retreats to the 3365-3350 area, targeting the 3380-3385 area. If this resistance zone is broken, hold and look for upward movement.
Smart Money Concepts (SMC) ✅ Analysis strengths:
• Correct identification of BOS (Break of Structure) and CHoCH, which indicate a change in direction.
• The support zone is marked and respected with rejection, reinforcing the probability of a rebound.
• The projection toward the distribution zone and HH of 1H is consistent, as there are inefficiencies (FVG) pending mitigation.
• The previous fake out clears liquidity and creates room for strong bullish momentum.
XAUUSD Intraday Signal Analysis – Gold Price Momentum & RSI SetuIn today’s 1-hour chart of XAUUSD (Gold vs USD), we observe a strong upward momentum supported by technical indicators, suggesting a well-defined bullish trend in the short term. Traders looking to capture short-term profits may find this chart setup especially favorable. Here's a breakdown of the price action and what it could mean for intraday traders.
Price Action Overview
The price of gold has surged past the $3,320 mark, showing a clear bullish breakout with a series of higher highs and higher lows. Currently, the market is trading near the $3,378 level, consolidating slightly after a strong upward movement.
The SMA 9 (Simple Moving Average) is providing dynamic support, curving upward and closely hugging the candlesticks. This is typically a sign that buyers are actively pushing the price higher and dips are being bought up quickly.
Additionally, the spread between the Buy ($3,378.78) and Sell ($3,378.51) prices is extremely narrow, suggesting tight liquidity and fast execution potential — ideal conditions for scalpers and short-term traders.
RSI Analysis
The RSI (Relative Strength Index) 14 is hovering around the 68–70 level, which traditionally indicates the asset is approaching overbought territory. However, it hasn’t crossed into the 70+ danger zone yet, which implies there could still be room for further upside.
One key observation is the RSI divergence forming on the right-hand side. While price has been climbing steadily, RSI has started to curve down slightly — this could hint at a minor pullback or consolidation phase before the next big move. Smart traders may consider watching for bullish RSI bounces or hidden divergences before re-entering long trades.
Trade Idea
Trend: Bullish
Support: $3,360 / $3,340
Resistance: $3,400 / $3,420
Signal: Wait for a minor pullback toward the SMA, and look for bullish candlestick confirmation near $3,360 before entering long.
Conclusion
This XAUUSD 1H chart presents a strong case for continued bullish momentum with cautious optimism due to RSI nearing overbought levels. A pullback could offer fresh entry opportunities before a push toward the next resistance zone. Intraday traders and swing traders alike can benefit from closely monitoring price action around the SMA 9 line.
Will Upcoming Data Determine the Next Gold's Direction?Macro approach:
- Gold retreated this week, reversing early gains to trade near four-week lows amid renewed US dollar strength and caution ahead of the Fed's policy decision.
- The retreat was mainly pressured by stronger-than-expected US economic data and a tentative revival in risk appetite, offsetting pockets of safe-haven demand.
- Key drivers included robust US GDP growth for 2Q, a bounce in consumer confidence, and the Fed's steady rates with a more hawkish tone, suggesting cuts may be further out.
- Meanwhile, recent US-EU and US-China trade deals eased some global uncertainty, damping gold's appeal as a hedge.
- Market participants also eyed the labor market's continued cooling, but resilient consumer spending further buoyed the dollar.
- Gold may remain volatile, with potential upside if upcoming US PCE inflation and NFP reports disappoint expectations. Any escalation in trade tensions or signals of Fed policy easing could renew support for gold prices.
Technical approach:
- XAUUSD fluctuated within the range of 3285-3560, which is below the broken ascending trendline. The price between the two EMAs awaits an apparent breakout to determine the next trend.
- If XAUUSD breaks below the support at 3273, confluence with EMA78, the price may plunge to retest the following support at 3167.
- On the contrary, remaining above the support at 3273 may lead XAUUSD to retest the resistance at around 3560.
Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness