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XAUUSD trade ideas

GOLD 45MINTHE month of july 1 Key Economic Outlook ; Central Bank Speeches (1)The bank of England head (BOE) Gov Bailey might speak in context on BOE 4.25% rate cut ,uk inflation about 3.45% is still above limit and the goal is 2%.my focus will be on his rhetoric's ,if he sounds dovish or Hawkish tones, then GBP will react to the sentiment. (2)Bank of japan (BOJ) Gov Ueda will center on rate held steady at 0.5% and core inflation remains above 2%,market will watch the sentiment because its likely he will address yield -curve control adjustments or hawkish signals , which will potentially boost JPY AND JP10Y the head of united states Fed reserve Chair, sir! Powell will speak and it comes with red folder ,the last monetary policy meeting kept Fed funds rate at 4.25–4.50% ,Powell recently emphasized patience on rate cuts based on cautious wait and see approach Key Messages Expected: Tariff-driven inflation risks require vigilance. Rate cuts unlikely until September unless inflation cools markedly. "No urgency" to ease policy amid solid labor market. US Economic Data Releases Final Manufacturing PMI 52.0 52.0 Neutral if unchanged; USD positive if >52.0. ISM Manufacturing PMI 48.8 48.5 Contractionary (<50); USD negative if <48.5. JOLTS Job Openings 7.32M 7.39M USD negative if <7.32M (labor cooling). ISM Manufacturing Prices 69.6 69.4 USD positive if >69.6 (inflationary pressure). Construction Spending -0.2% -0.4% Limited impact unless significantly below forecast. Market Implications USD: Powell’s tone is critical. Hawkish remarks (delayed cuts) could lift DXY; dovish hints may weaken it. Data surprises (especially ISM/JOLTS) could amplify volatility. GBP/JPY: Bailey/Ueda speeches may drive cross-pairs. BOJ hawkishness could weaken EUR/JPY carry trades. Risk Assets: Weak ISM/JOLTS data may pressure equities (US30) and boost bonds (↓US10Y). Summary of Key Risks Powell Speech: Reiteration of "no imminent cuts" likely. Watch for tariff-inflation warnings. ISM/JOLTS: Sustained manufacturing contraction or softer labor demand could fuel recession fears. Carry Trades: JPY strength (Ueda) may pressure EUR/JPY/AUD if BOJ signals policy shift. #gold #fx
VANTAGE:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
1
GOLD, back at higher base. BUY at 3250 enroute to ath 3500 / 4k.GOLD had a wonderful run this past few seasons grinding up a series of ATH taps every higher baselines since 1500. After goin to a new parabolic highs of 3500 ATH, GOLD did hibernate a bit and got trimmed back to 3240 levels -- a precise 61.8 FIB tap. This is where most buyers converge, and position themselves on the next run up. The next ascend series will be far more generous eyeing new higher numbers never before seen. Ideal seeding zone is at the current price range of 3250. Current higher lows on momentum metrics has been spotted conveying intense upside pressure as it moves forward. Spotted at 3250 Interim target at 3500 ATH Long term: 4000 TAYOR. Trade safely. Market will be market. Not financial advice.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by JSAL
Non-farm data is coming. Upward breakthrough?Information summary: ADP data supports the rise of gold. Secondly, the weaker-than-expected non-farm data has triggered people's hope that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates earlier. The gold price hit the 3360 mark, then fell back slightly, and is currently fluctuating around 3350. This Friday is the Independence Day holiday in the United States. The non-farm data will be released on Thursday. Today, we will focus on this data, which will trigger a new trend. Market analysis: From the 4-hour chart, gold is currently in a suppressed state. However, it is not ruled out that it will be supported at the bottom as before, and then break through the upper suppression position again with the help of non-farm data. Therefore, the most critical position today is not above, but near the support of 3325 below. On Wednesday, the support near 3325 was tested many times but did not break down. If the price remains above this position today, the probability of an upward breakthrough is very high. Based on the current market conditions and the data to be released soon, Quaid recommends that everyone wait and see for a while and wait for the new trend to come. Of course, according to the current forecast data, this will support the rise of gold. A radical approach can also try a long strategy around 3345.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Quaid_1
Elliott Wave Analysis of XAUUSDOn the daily chart of XAUUSD, we are witnessing a clearly defined Elliott Wave structure, with the potential formation of an extended wave (5) targeting the $3,726 region — aligned with the 0.618 Fibonacci extension. This is a key technical signal that could capture the attention of both long-term investors and strategic swing traders. 1. Elliott Wave Overview: Wave (3) concluded at the peak around $3,365, followed by a textbook a-b-c corrective pattern. Waves "a" and "b" are clearly identifiable, with wave "c" appearing to have completed. The current price action suggests a rebound from the bottom of wave c — a strong indication of a possible start to wave (5). 2. Wave (5) Target Zone: The Fibonacci 0.618 extension projects a target near $3,726 — a significant price level the market could approach if bullish momentum builds up. This level also serves as a psychological resistance zone, so expect possible volatility as the price nears this area. 3. Price Behavior & Confirmation Signals: Recent candlestick formations reveal renewed buying interest, with multiple bullish candles showing long bodies and lower wicks. Holding above the key support around $3,300 is crucial for confirming the formation of an uptrend. A breakout above the $3,365 high (wave (3) peak) would be a strong signal that wave (5) is in motion. 4. Suggested Trading Strategies: Buy limit: Consider entries around the $3,310 – $3,320 support zone on a retest. Buy breakout: Trigger entries if price breaks decisively above $3,365 with strong volume. Take profit: Gradually scale out positions around the $3,680 – $3,726 area. Stop loss: Place stops below the wave c bottom — under $3,245. 5. Conclusion: XAUUSD is currently in a sensitive phase with a high probability of a bullish breakout. The Elliott Wave structure shows that there is still considerable upside potential. However, traders should maintain strict risk management, as wave (5) formations often involve significant price swings.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Henrybillion
Can Gold Really Drop 10% in a Day?📘 EDUCATIONAL POST: Can Gold Really Drop 10% in a Day? Let’s Break It Down Alright, traders—before you start thinking the sky is falling, let’s look this chart straight in the face and get real. ⸻ 🔍 The Setup Right Now Here’s what’s showing up: ✅ A bullish pennant forming up top (potential continuation higher). ✅ A big head and shoulders pattern in the middle (bearish). ✅ VWAP bands ranging from ~3,257 to ~3,392. ✅ Volume is underwhelming—426k vs 582k average. ✅ A big target line all the way down near 3,000. This mix of signals can be confusing. Let’s separate the hype from what’s actually possible. ⸻ 🎯 Q: Can the market collapse to 3,000 tomorrow? Short Answer: No. Here’s Why: 1️⃣ Move Size: • Current price is ~3,357. • Target is ~3,000. • That’s a -357 point drop (~10.6%) in one session. • For gold CFDs, this would be an extreme event only seen in major crises (think 2008 or March 2020). 2️⃣ Volume Context: • Today’s volume is below average. • Big crashes are usually preceded by heavy distribution—this isn’t showing yet. 3️⃣ VWAP Anchors: • The lower VWAP band sits at 3,257. • Reaching 3,000 would require breaking through 3,257 support, 3,100, and months of prior buying interest. 4️⃣ Market Environment: • It’s the July 4th holiday in the U.S.—liquidity is thin. • Thin markets can gap lower but rarely hold a massive drop without a big catalyst (e.g., credit crisis, war headlines). 5️⃣ Pattern Confirmation: • Yes, the head and shoulders pattern is visible. • But to confirm it, you need: 🔹 A clear break of the neckline with double average volume. 🔹 Follow-through that pushes below 3,257. • None of this has happened yet. ⸻ ✅ What’s Realistically Possible Tomorrow? If sellers show up, here’s what a big bearish day might look like: 1️⃣ First Move: • Rejection at 3,357–3,392 resistance. • Pullback toward ~3,324 (mid VWAP). 2️⃣ Continuation: • Drop down to ~3,257 (VWAP lower band). 3️⃣ Extreme Scenario: • Retest of 3,200–3,150 zone. But a flush all the way to 3,000? 👉 Highly unlikely unless there’s a major global shock. ⸻ 💡 Trading Tip: Stay Tactical If you want to position short: ✅ Wait for rejection at 3,357–3,392. ✅ Short targeting 3,324 first. ✅ Scale profits there. ✅ Only hold runners for 3,200–3,150 if momentum accelerates. ⸻ 🔑 Key Takeaway 3,000 is a structural target—this means it’s a price objective that might play out over weeks, not hours. Trying to catch that in one day is chasing a black swan. Stay patient. Trade levels, not headlines. ⸻ ⚠️ Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Always do your own research before trading. ⸻ ✅ If you found this helpful, share it with someone who panics every time a red candle shows up.
FX:XAUUSD
by ICHIMOKUontheNILE
GOLD XAUUSD The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report for today showed a surprising decline of 33,000 jobs, well below the forecast of a 99,000 forecast and down from the previous month’s modest gain of 29,000 jobs. Key Details: This negative figure indicates that private businesses in the US shed 33,000 jobs in June, marking a contraction in private-sector employment—the weakest report since March 2023. The report is produced by the ADP Research Institute, which uses anonymized payroll data from about 26 million workers to estimate private-sector employment changes ahead of the official government Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report. The decline reflects ongoing uncertainty among employers amid policy and economic challenges, including tariff impacts and consumer caution. Market Implications: The unexpected job losses may raise concerns about the health of the US labor market and the broader economy. This data could increase expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts or a more dovish stance, potentially weighing on the US dollar and boosting safe-haven assets like gold and silver. However, the ADP report often diverges from the official NFP, so markets will closely watch the upcoming government jobs data for confirmation. In summary: June’s ADP report revealed a contraction of 33,000 private-sector jobs, far below expectations, signaling caution in US labor market hiring and adding uncertainty to the economic outlook ahead of the official payrolls release. #gold #xauusd
VANTAGE:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
1
I have shorted gold as expected and held on patientlyEven under the influence of the ADP data, which is bullish for the gold market, gold has not effectively broken through 3350, and even showed signs of falling back after rising several times. The resistance above is becoming more and more obvious, which may further weaken the market's bullish sentiment and confidence, thereby strengthening the dominance of the bears. Although gold has not effectively fallen yet, from the perspective of the gold structure, even if gold wants to rise, it still needs to be backtested and support confirmed before rising, and the current retracement is far from enough, so gold still has a need for structural retracement; and before the NFP market, gold rose slowly but was far from enough to break upward, and there was no volume support, so the illusion of gold rising may be to lure and capture more bulls; Therefore, out of caution, I try to avoid chasing gold at high levels; and I believe that shorting gold is still the first choice for short-term trading at present. And I have executed short trades in the 3340-3350 area according to the trading plan, and held it patiently. I hope that gold can retreat to the 3320-3310-3300 area as expected.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Trading_Steffen
How to make accurate layout during gold volatility?Gold maintained a small range of fluctuations and consolidation rhythm today. In the morning, we arranged long orders at 3330-3331 and successfully exited at 3343. Affected by the ADP data, the gold price broke through 3345 and hit 3351. We also arranged short orders in the 3350-3351 area in time and are still holding positions. The focus of the support below is 3325-3315, which is the key position today. As long as this position is maintained, the long position will rebound and rise. Otherwise, it will fall into the battle for support at 3305-3295. In terms of operation, we continue to step back and do more. From the current analysis of gold trend, the support below focuses on 3325-3315. The main bullish trend remains unchanged. Focus on the long-short watershed position of 3305-3295. The daily level stabilizes above this position and continues to step back and do more bullish rhythm.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TP_Daniel
3
Gold Sees Volatile Swings – Pullback Risk Remains📊 Market Highlights: Gold surged to $3,351 earlier today after weaker-than-expected US ISM manufacturing data, which boosted expectations of a Fed rate cut. However, profit-taking quickly pushed prices down to $3,334 before recovering to $3,342. 📉 Technical Analysis: • Key Resistance: $3,351 • Nearest Support: $3,334 • EMA: Price is above EMA 09 → uptrend still intact. • Candles / Volume / Momentum: H1 candle shows a long upper wick, indicating selling pressure near the recent high. Bullish momentum is slowing, and volume has started to normalize. 📌 Outlook: Gold may face a short-term pullback if it fails to break above $3,351 and the USD strengthens during the US session. ________________________________________ 💡 Suggested Trading Strategy: 🔻 SELL XAU/USD at: $3,345 – $3,350 🎯 TP: $3,334 ❌ SL: $3,353 🔺 BUY XAU/USD at: $3,332 – $3,334 🎯 TP: $3,350 ❌ SL: $3,323
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Mian-FXSignals
Gold is moving in a range-bound consolidation.The ADP employment data in the U.S. unexpectedly cooled down, with private sector employment dropping by 33,000 in June, far below the market expectation of an increase of 95,000. The previous value was revised down from 37,000 to 29,000, marking the largest single-month decline since March 2023. Meanwhile, the Challenger Enterprise Layoff Report showed that the number of layoffs in June was 48,000, with a monthly rate decrease of 48.84% and an annual rate decrease of 1.6%. Compared with the previous value of 93,800, it has significantly declined, indicating that the layoff pressure has eased. After the release of the ADP data, the U.S. Dollar Index fell sharply in the short term, and gold, as a safe-haven asset, rose rapidly. Gold showed a high-level consolidation trend. After repeatedly stabilizing in the 3,327 area, it rebounded and hit the resistance at around 3,351 U.S. dollars, lingering there. It is expected that the range consolidation of gold may face pressure. you are currently struggling with losses，or are unsure which of the numerous trading strategies to follow,You have the option to join our VIP program. I will assist you and provide you with accurate trading signals, enabling you to navigate the financial markets with greater confidence and potentially achieve optimal trading results. Trading Strategy: buy@3330-3335 TP:3360-3365
CAPITALCOM:GOLDShort
by MyronWilson
Gold price analysis July 2As expected, after the D1 candle showed the return of buying power, yesterday's trading session saw the price continue its upward trend and reach 3357. Currently, the market is in an accumulation phase with a fairly wide range, fluctuating from 3328 to 3344. This is an important price zone, acting as a "sideway box" waiting for a breakout. The priority strategy at this time is still trend trading - activated when the price breaks out of the above accumulation zone. BUY orders will have a high probability of success if the price adjusts and retests the Support or Resistance zones that have just been broken, then forms a confirmation signal. Meanwhile, SELL orders around resistance should only be considered a recovery strategy in an uptrend - requiring strict risk management and short-term profit expectations. Breakout Range: 3328 – 3344 Support: 3310 – 3298 Resistance: 3368 – 3386
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
1