XAUUSDGold continued to fall at the opening today, currently hitting the lowest level of 3300, with a high and low range of 40 US dollars, but the overall market is still volatile, so don't chase shorts at low points
Short-term needs to wait for a rebound before shorting, pay attention to the 3318/3323 resistance
XAUUSD trade ideas
XAUUSD POSSIBLE SHORTOn the technical view, the instrument is trading in a global bull trend on D1. It recently rejected for the 3rd time near a key zone and is now testing a supporting bullish trendline. If this is broken below and the subsequent support, it will be a good indication of a bearish movement.
Please do your own analysis before taking any trades.
Cheers and happy trading !!!
XAUUSD Consolidates Below Resistance – A Breakout Imminent?On the 4-hour timeframe (H4), XAUUSD is clearly consolidating just below the key resistance zone near $3,366, forming higher lows and lower highs within a tightening range highlighted by the shaded area.
1. Key Price Action Highlights
Price has been forming higher lows, suggesting growing bullish momentum.
The $3,366 resistance remains intact – a breakout above this level could confirm bullish continuation.
A visible double bottom (W pattern) formed around June 28 hints at a strong technical rebound after a correction phase.
2. Important Support and Resistance Levels
Price Level
Significance
$3,366 – $3,380
Major resistance zone – likely breakout target
$3,300
Key near-term support where price recently bounced
$3,242
Deeper support – a breakdown here could confirm bearish reversal
3. Suggested Trading Strategy
Buy on breakout above $3,366 with strong volume and clear confirmation (e.g., a large-bodied candle closing above resistance).
Consider buying on a pullback to the $3,320 – $3,300 zone for better risk-reward.
Stay cautious if price breaks below $3,300 – this could signal a bearish shift in momentum.
Gold is currently in a tight consolidation phase under major resistance, with bullish structure still intact. A breakout above $3,366 could trigger a sharp move upward. Until then, traders should monitor the lower boundaries for potential pullbacks or invalidation signals.
XAU/USD 2H CHART PATTERNXAUUSD 2H chart shows a clear trendline breakout after a period of consolidation, indicating a potential bullish continuation. The breakout occurred with strong momentum, supported by clear higher lows before the break, signaling buyer interest. Price action has closed firmly above the trendline, confirming the breakout structure and suggesting the potential for further upward movement if momentum continues. The breakout zone can now act as a support if price retests before continuation. The structure aligns with a bullish scenario, and the breakout level will be monitored for validation. A clean follow-through move is anticipated as long as the breakout structure holds, providing an opportunity for a controlled and patient approach toward the targets.
Entry 3347
First Target 3381
Second Target 3440
GOLD LIQUIDITY MASTERCLASS: The Smart Money Playbook Revealed🧠 INSTITUTIONAL MINDSET
At $3,365: "Perfect! Time to sell into retail buying"
At $3,337: "Let's see how this plays out"
At $3,318: "Preparing for the hunt"
At $3,270: "Starting to accumulate"
At $3,245: "Loading the truck! This is what we've been waiting for"
🔍 LIQUIDITY ZONES DECODED: The Hidden Treasure Map
🎯 BELLOW SELL IF CLOSE CONFIRMED: $3,318
Significance: Close below = bears take control
Time Frame: 4H close confirmation needed
________________
🛡️ BUY ZONE & 1H OB: $3,270
The Fortress: Major institutional buy zone
Order Block Significance: 1H order block provides additional support
Risk/Reward Sweet Spot: Excellent entry for swing positions
_______________
⚡ BUY ZONE + ADD CONFIRMATION LIQUIDITY SWEEP: $3,245
The Ultimate Accumulation Zone: Where smart money loads up
_________ 🎯 STRATEGY _________
Entry: $3,238-$3,2440 (after liquidity sweep confirmation)
Stop Loss: $3,230 (below the sweep low)
Target 1: $3,290 (Risk:Reward 1:3)
Target 2: $3,320 (Risk:Reward 1:5)
Target 3: $3,365 (Risk:Reward 1:8)
🚨 RISK WARNING 🛡️ DYOR 🚨 DISCLAIMER - JUST FOR EDUCATION PROPOSAL ⚠️
Gold falls back to 18-24 and goes longFrom the 4-hour analysis, pay attention to the short-term support of 3318-3324 below, pay attention to the short-term resistance of 3345-50 above, and focus on the suppression of 3365-70. The overall high-altitude low-multiple cycle participation theme remains unchanged. In the middle position, watch more and do less, and follow orders cautiously, and keep the main theme of participation in the trend. Be patient and wait for key points to participate. I will prompt the specific operation strategy in the link, please pay attention in time.
Gold operation strategy:
1. Go long at 3318-3324, stop loss at 3312, target at 3345-50, and continue to hold if it breaks;
2. Go short at 3345-50 when gold rebounds, stop loss at 3357, target at 3318-24, and continue to hold if it breaks;
XAU/USD Struggles Below 3366, Bearish Pressure Remains ActiveXAU/USD Tests Supply Zone – Watching 3365 for Bullish Continuation
Gold is climbing amid global uncertainty and U.S. tariff concerns ahead of the July 9 deadline. But strong resistance is still in play.
The price is now testing the 1H–2H supply zone and has pushed past the pivot (3347–3352). A clear 4H close above 3365 will confirm bullish continuation.
Until then, upside remains capped. If price fails to sustain above 3365, a drop back toward 3328 and 3295 is likely.
Key Levels:
Resistance: 3352 – 3365 – 3400
Support: 3328 – 3295 – 3285
Pivot Zone: 3347–3352
Potential NFP tonightThe markets are currently bracing for a softer-than-expected NFP print, driven by weak ADP data and U.S. demographic headwinds. If the numbers come in below consensus, it would open the door for USD‑short trades and entries into gold or equity indices. Conversely, a stronger release would warrant watching for a rebound in the dollar and Treasury yields. This report will also shape expectations around Fed policy and the likelihood of a rate cut in September.
Gold fluctuates. Beware of highs.On Monday, the U.S. dollar index rose sharply, reaching an intraday high of 97.65 as Trump announced that he would impose new tariffs on a series of countries including Japan and South Korea on August 1.
Spot gold fell first and then rose. It once fell below the $3,300 mark during the session, but then rebounded strongly in a V-shaped manner by nearly $40. As of now, it has stabilized above 3,330.
From the current daily line:
3,320 is the absolute support position for gold at present. Although it fell below 3,320 yesterday, Monday, it then reversed and stabilized above 3,320. For now, the daily line still cannot close below 3,320. If it closes below 3,320, the decline may open further. On the contrary, the current upper suppression position of gold is around 3,350. That is to say, it is basically maintained at 3,320-50 for rectification.
If the daily line stabilizes at 3350 again, the bulls may rise again.
From the 4-hour chart, gold currently shows signs of a head and shoulders bottom. If the 4-hour chart stabilizes above 3340 again, the suppression level of 3350 may be directly broken. Next, it may directly touch the high level of 3380-90. Therefore, in terms of operation, I suggest that you can maintain long positions at 3320-30.
The first target is 3340-50. As long as the 4-hour chart stabilizes above 3340, you can continue to look at 3380-90.
Xausd techinical analysis.This chart shows the Gold Spot vs. U.S. Dollar (XAU/USD) on the 1-hour timeframe, with current price action around 3,311.195.
Key Observations:
1. Descending Trendline (blue):
Shows recent bearish structure with lower highs.
Price is now testing this trendline from below.
2. Support and Resistance Zones (purple boxes):
Support: Around 3,303 – 3,306 (recent consolidation area).
Resistance: Around 3,327 – 3,332 (previous high and zone of interest).
3. Breakout Setup:
Blue arrow indicates a possible bullish breakout scenario.
The price is projected to break above the descending trendline and move toward the upper resistance zone (~3,330+).
4. Volume/Events Icon:
Icons suggest potential news events or volatility (such as U.S. data or FOMC-related impact), possibly increasing breakout chances.
Implication:
This is a bullish scenario suggesting:
A breakout of the descending trendline.
Retest of the breakout level.
Continuation toward the resistance zone (~3,330).
Strategy:
If trading this:
Entry: On confirmation of breakout and retest above 3,310–3,312.
Target: 3,327–3,332.
Stop Loss: Below the recent support ~3,300.
Would you like help building a trade plan or checking the fundamentals behind this move?
Opportunity to short gold!Gold's hourly chart is clearly moving within a channel
There is a high probability of a rebound in the short term.
The key position is at the upper edge of the channel.
This happens to be the supply area【3324...3329】 of the hourly chart.
If there is a good reversal signal in the supply zone, you can try shorting.
short term Target:Approximately at the position where AB=CD is completed
ARE WE IN A BEAR MARKET, AT WHAT EXTENT?In this video, I attempt to explain the fractal similarities in the gold market five years apart and how we can use a best-fit model to predict the next stage of the current correction.
In the next video, I will investigate the results of our model.
Check back shortly
XAUUSD - Trading Plan 4-Hour Analysis and ProjectionThis 4-hour candlestick chart of Gold against the US Dollar highlights key Wyckoff market phases and technical levels that frame the current market structure. The analysis identifies significant points including the Buying Climax (BC), Upthrust (UT), Second Test (ST), and Automatic Reaction (AR), which mark essential phases of accumulation and distribution.
Multiple Dow swing counts (Dow-1, Dow-2, Dow-3) are annotated with various colors, illustrating the market’s internal structure and momentum shifts. The chart shows a failed upthrust after distribution, signaling a likely bearish pressure following the attempt to push prices higher.
The current price action indicates a potential retracement to the support zone near the Automatic Reaction level, followed by possible continuation up to recent highs. The plan suggests watching for a minor pullback around area A, after which a bullish move is expected to resume, targeting higher resistance levels as indicated by the projected price movement arrows.
This trading plan emphasizes careful observation of price reactions around key support and resistance levels derived from Wyckoff methodology phases, aiming to capture potential bullish continuation or prepare for bearish scenarios if support fails.
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Dow Theory & Wyckoff
Gold (XAU/USD) Technical Analysis – July 3, 2025The chart of gold (XAU/USD) on the 15-minute timeframe shows that the price is moving within a corrective range after a strong bullish wave during which gold reached levels above $3,368 per ounce. Following a rejection from the resistance area near 3,365–3,368, the price began a downward correction and is currently stabilizing around the support zone at 3,344–3,343.
The price is now testing a key support area. If it holds above this zone, we may see a rebound toward the 3,363 and 3,365 resistance levels. A breakout above 3,368 could restore bullish momentum and open the way for new highs.
However, if the current support at 3,343 breaks, the bearish scenario would be favored, with potential targets at the next support levels around 3,336 and 3,329.
Likely Scenario: As long as gold holds above 3,343, the bullish bias remains valid. We will monitor price action at this area to confirm a possible rebound.
Key Levels to Watch:
Support: 3,343 – 3,336 – 3,329
Resistance: 3,363 – 3,365 – 3,368
This is a short-term analysis and depends on the price reaction at the current support zone.
XAUUSD: Eyes $3,800 based on this 2 year pattern.Gold turned neutral again on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 52.131, MACD = 4.646, ADX = 13.719) as after last week's selling, it recovered yesterday its 1D MA50, restoring the bullish trend. The long term trend has been extremely bullish after all and the past 2 months have simply been a consolidation stage through a Triangle pattern that worked as accumulation for the next bullish wave. On this 2 year pattern, typical waves rose by at least +22.57%. Once the 1D MA50 turns into a support again, we anticipate that a new Channel Up will push Gold to a TP = 3,800.
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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Gold/USD Bullish Reversal from Support Zone Gold/USD Bullish Reversal from Support Zone 🟢📈
Technical Analysis:
Support Zone: Price is consistently respecting the horizontal support range near 3,305 – 3,310, confirming it as a strong demand zone (marked by multiple orange circles and previous bounce reactions).
Bullish Structure: After breaking the descending trendline, the price has retested the trendline and horizontal support zone, forming a higher low — a classic bullish reversal signal.
Target Projection: The measured move projection targets a potential upside near 3,366.979, aligned with previous highs.
Bullish Candlestick Patterns: Green arrows highlight bullish price action at significant reversal points, confirming buyer strength at support.
Harmonic Pattern: The shaded harmonic pattern suggests completion near the previous lows, which aligns with the reversal zone.
Conclusion:
As long as the price holds above the support area and respects the trendline retest, bulls may push toward the projected target. A break below the zone would invalidate this bullish setup.
XAUUSD Pre-FOMC SMC Setup This is a Smart Money Concept (SMC) based bullish setup on XAUUSD (Gold) ahead of the upcoming FOMC statement release. The idea builds on internal liquidity grabs, break of structures (BOS), and refined entry from a high-probability H1 bullish order block.
🧠 Price Action Narrative:
Price formed multiple Market Structure Shifts (MSS) and Breaks of Structure (BOS) following a mitigation of the higher H1 OB.
The final BOS to the upside was preceded by a sweep of short-term sell-side liquidity (marked as “$$$”), confirming bullish intent.
Price tapped into a refined H1 Order Block (OB) at ~3295.552, which also aligns with a previously unmitigated demand zone.
Clean reaction seen with strong bullish momentum pushing toward the next H1 Supply Zone (H1 SP).
🧩 Key SMC Zones:
H1 OB Entry Zone: ~3295.552
H1 SP Target Zone: 3318–3324
Invalidation Below: 3283.643 (OB low)
🕓 FOMC News Impact:
The FOMC statement in 15 minutes adds volatility potential. The bias remains bullish unless price invalidates the H1 OB. However, news-driven momentum could:
Accelerate the move into the H1 SP zone.
Induce a liquidity sweep before the actual push.
Temporarily fake out and then return to internal structure.
🎯 Trade Management Considerations:
Risk should be adjusted accordingly due to upcoming high-impact news.
Aggressive TP near the H1 SP.
Conservative traders may want to monitor how price reacts at MSS or internal resistance zones.
7.8 Gold Analysis7.8 Gold Analysis
Currently, the market is in a tug-of-war between long and short positions
1. Short forces (suppressing gold prices):
Federal Reserve hawkish expectations: Strong non-farm data has reduced market expectations for a rate cut in July, and even strengthened the "higher and longer" interest rate stance.
Stronger US dollar and US Treasury yields: Cooling expectations for rate cuts have pushed up the US dollar and Treasury yields, increasing the opportunity cost of holding interest-free assets such as gold.
2. Long forces (supporting gold prices):
Geopolitical risks: Trump's threat to impose tariffs (trade friction risks) and other unspecified geopolitical tensions have increased gold's safe-haven appeal.
Economic uncertainty: Potential trade frictions themselves will also bring uncertainty to the economic outlook, which is good for gold.
Technical analysis
Watershed: 3320
Resistance level (short selling area): Near 3320
Strategy: Before the price effectively breaks through and stabilizes at 3320, any rebound to this position is seen as a short selling opportunity.
Breakout signal: If the price effectively breaks through and stands above 3320, the technical pattern will turn bullish, and the bearish idea should be abandoned. Consider going long or waiting.
Today's strategy
SELL: around 3320
SL: 3330
TP: 3310-3280
Be cautious in trading and control the risk! I wish you a smooth transaction!
Gold price range: 3310-3360Gold price range: 3310-3360
Spot gold fell to $3311.65 during the session, but it is still fluctuating above the key support level of $3310, and the current price is around 3340.
As shown in the figure:
The latest triangle convergence range oscillation pattern has been shown to everyone
Key pressure area: 3355-3360
Key support area: 3310-3320
It is expected to enter a range oscillation pattern on Friday.
Due to the US Independence Day holiday, today's gold price trend is more affected by the performance of the Asian session.
According to analysis and observation, the gold price showed a pull-up or oscillating upward trend in the Asian session this week.
Most of the factors that led to the rise in gold prices this week can be attributed to the pull-up rhythm in the Asian session.
According to Chinese news reports: China has suspended holdings of gold, but Turkey and India are still buying.
In other words, the main factors for this week's rise are Turkey and India.
At present, the range of gold price fluctuations will become narrower and narrower, and it is unlikely that a new general direction will appear this week.
Then the corresponding strategy is:
In the oscillation range of 3310-3360, use oscillation thinking to trade
Short at high level, stop loss at 3365
Long at low price, stop loss at 3300
The author prefers the idea of short at high price
Excellent profits on NFP & ISMH4 Timeframe Analysis
Yesterday we're totally on sell from 3355 to 3315 .
Gold is currently holding the Range of 3320-3345.
What's possible scanarios we have?
▪️As today bank Holiday in USA so we'll not see much volatility in US session although if h1-h4 Candle closes above 3345 then we'll see gold to tap 3355 then 3356 .
▪️If the H4 candle remains below 3330 then keep your eyes at 3320 .
#XAUUSD