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XAUUSD trade ideas

Updated Structure & Trend (April 17 – Pre-Weekend Trading)🧠 Updated Structure & Trend (April 17 – Pre-Weekend Trading) ✅ HTF (D1, H4): Price has made a new all-time high at 3357, extending the bullish run — but we're now deep in premium exhaustion territory. 🟠 M30–H1: First signs of distribution and internal CHoCH on M15 are showing. No follow-through above ATH. Price is stalling, likely waiting for NY volume. ⚠️ Volatility is low, and Friday is a market holiday, so any manipulation or rejection will likely happen today. 🔼 New ATH: 3357 This makes previous zones like 3333–3340 less relevant for traps. Focus shifts to the true inducement zone: 🔻 3355–3365 → Main sniper short zone, valid only with clear M5 structure (BOS or reversal FVG). 🔻 Key Sell Zones (Updated): 3355–3365 → Final inducement / exhaustion zone near new ATH 3342–3345 → OB retest below weak high, valid only if confirmed with bearish PA on M5 🟢 Key Buy Zones (Same): 3284–3288 → OB + FVG + discount zone 3260–3265 → H1 equilibrium and last clean demand 3230–3235 → Deeper reentry zone if we get a flash crash before NY 📊 Trading Logic: If NY session spikes again into 3355–3365, we're ready to snipe with precision. If price fails to reclaim 3345 and breaks M5 structure, we target early shorts. On a clean dump, we look for longs in the 3280–3260 range, with confirmation.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by GoldFxMinds
1
Gold skyrocketing as expectedAs discussed throughout my yesterday's session commentary: "My position: Gold is soaring as it represents safe-haven asset, I'd prefer to stay with the trend (Bullish). I have attempted to Buy Gold on #3,208.80 and since Price-action tested #3,214.80 I moved my Stop on breakeven and it got triggered moments ahead which left me without order and Gold delivered #3,225.80 extension. However I have managed to re-Sell #3,225.80. I will keep Buying every dip on Gold for maximum Profit optimisation from my calculated re-Buy zones. #3,192.80 is Support for current Bullish motion." Technical analysis: I have announced that Gold might skyrocket as next Resistance zone is priced at #3,322.80 / break of it might extend the uptrend towards #3,352.80 benchmark configuration. Gold has invalidated solid Neutral Rectangle on Hourly 4 chart and if you recall, delivered #2 additional Higher High’s extension (my chart’s explanation that Gold always delivers #3 Higher High's extensions ahead of full scale reversal, so practically I have one more Higher High’s to expect according to the cycle). DX (# -0.63% almost) is again turning the market sentiment to Bullish on Intra-day basis, and according to my estimations, current Buying sequence was due to the Trump's tariff's talks, which is being aggressively Bought due to the remarks. My position: Congratulations for those who Bought Gold from #3,220's as per my advice.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by goldenBear88
1
Gold Target $4054 Year 2025-2026 With Reasons & 4$rules.1st Tp completed at 3341 2nd Tp 3437 3rd Tp 3622 4th Tp 3747 Final target is $ 4054 for Year 2025 to 2027 Below the Base line mentioned in chart will be the Seller profit zone which is marked as 1st Support, 2nd Support, 3rd Support & 4th Major Support. Current Major reasons mentioned in the chart and future will be running of food, drinking water crisis and health issues will remain on high alerts (after covid 19 and pollution issues) and Insurance companies profits will be on Top of every Monthly trading results.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by zararshahid
1
How to Apply Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) to Trading?How to Apply Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) to Trading? Harry Markowitz’s Modern Portfolio Theory revolutionised investing by providing a structured way to balance potential risk and returns. By focusing on diversification and understanding how assets interact, MPT helps traders and investors build efficient portfolios tailored to their goals. This article explores “What is MPT,” the core principles of MPT, its practical applications, and its limitations, offering insights into why it remains a foundational concept in modern finance. What Is Modern Portfolio Theory? Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) is a financial framework designed to help investors build a portfolio that balances potential risk and returns in the most efficient way possible. Introduced by economist Harry Markowitz in 1952, MPT is grounded in the idea that diversification—spreading investments across different assets—can reduce overall risk without necessarily sacrificing returns. At its core, MPT focuses on how assets within a portfolio interact with each other, not just their individual performance. Each asset has two key attributes: expected return, which represents the potential gains based on historical performance, and risk, often measured as the volatility of those returns. The theory emphasises that it’s not enough to look at assets in isolation. Instead, their relationships—measured by correlation—are critical. For instance, combining assets that move in opposite directions during market shifts can stabilise overall portfolio performance. A central concept of Markowitz’s model is the efficient frontier. This is a graphical representation of portfolios that deliver the highest possible return for a given level of risk. Portfolios below the efficient frontier are considered suboptimal, as they expose investors to unnecessary risk without sufficient returns. MPT also categorises risk into two types: systematic risk, which affects the entire market (like economic recessions), and unsystematic risk, which is specific to an individual company or sector. Diversification can only address unsystematic risk, making asset selection a key part of portfolio construction. To illustrate, imagine a portfolio that mixes equities, bonds, and commodities. Equities may offer high potential returns but come with volatility. Bonds and commodities, often less correlated with stocks, can act as stabilisers, potentially reducing overall risk while maintaining growth potential. The Core Principles of MPT Markowitz’s Portfolio Theory is built on a few foundational principles that guide how investors can construct portfolios to balance potential risk and returns. 1. Diversification Reduces Risk Diversification is the cornerstone of MPT. By spreading investments across different asset classes, industries, and geographic regions, traders can reduce unsystematic risk. For example, holding shares in both a tech company and an energy firm limits the impact of a downturn in either industry. The idea is simple: assets that behave differently in various market conditions create a portfolio that’s less volatile overall. 2. The Risk-Return Trade-Off Investors face a constant balancing act between potential risk and returns. Higher potential returns often come with higher risk, while so-called safer investments tend to deliver lower potential returns. MPT quantifies this relationship, allowing investors to choose a risk level they’re comfortable with while maximising their potential returns. For instance, a trader with a low risk tolerance might lean towards a portfolio with bonds and dividend-paying stocks, whereas someone with a higher tolerance may include more volatile emerging market equities. 3. Correlation Matters One of MPT’s key insights is that not all assets move in the same direction at the same time. The correlation between assets is crucial. Low or negative correlation—where one asset tends to rise as the other falls—helps stabilise portfolios. For example, government bonds often perform well when stock markets drop, making them a popular addition to equity-heavy portfolios. How the MPT Works in Practice Modern Portfolio Theory takes theoretical concepts and applies them to real-world investment decisions, helping traders and investors design portfolios that align with their goals and risk tolerance. Here’s how it works step by step. The Efficient Frontier in Action The efficient frontier is a visual representation of optimal portfolios. Imagine plotting potential portfolios on a graph, with risk on the x-axis and expected return on the y-axis. Portfolios on the efficient frontier offer the highest possible return for each level of risk. For example, if two portfolios have the same level of risk but one offers higher returns, MPT identifies it as the better choice. Investors aim to build portfolios that lie on or near this frontier. Portfolio Optimisation The goal of Markowitz’s portfolio optimisation is to combine assets in a way that balances potential risk and returns. This involves analysing the expected returns, standard deviations (volatility), and correlations of potential investments. For instance, a mix of stocks, government bonds, and commodities might be optimised to maximise possible returns while minimising overall portfolio volatility. Technology, like portfolio management software, often assists in running complex Modern Portfolio Theory formulas, like expected portfolio returns, portfolio variance, and risk-adjusted returns. Risk-Adjusted Metrics Investors also evaluate portfolios using metrics like the Sharpe ratio, which measures returns relative to risk. A higher Sharpe ratio typically indicates a more efficient portfolio. For example, a portfolio with diverse holdings might deliver similar returns to one concentrated in equities but with less volatility. Adaptability to Changing Markets While the theory relies on historical data, Markowitz’s Portfolio Theory is adaptable. Investors frequently rebalance their portfolios, adjusting asset allocations as markets shift. For example, if equities outperform and dominate the portfolio, a trader may sell some and reinvest in bonds to maintain the desired risk level. Limitations and Criticisms of MPT Modern Portfolio Theory has reshaped how we think about investing, but it’s not without its flaws. While it offers a structured framework for balancing possible risk and returns, its assumptions and practical limitations can present challenges. Assumption of Rational Behaviour MPT assumes that investors always act rationally, basing decisions on logic and complete information. In reality, emotions, biases, and unpredictable behaviour play significant roles in markets. For example, during a financial crisis, fear can lead to widespread selling, regardless of an asset’s theoretical value. Ignoring Tail Risks The model underestimates the impact of extreme, rare events, known as tail risks. These events, including economic collapses or geopolitical crises, can significantly disrupt even well-diversified portfolios. Dependence on Historical Data The theory relies on historical data to estimate risk, returns, and correlations. However, past performance doesn’t always reflect future outcomes. During major market disruptions, correlations between assets—normally stable—can spike, reducing the effectiveness of diversification. For instance, in the 2008 financial crisis, many traditionally uncorrelated assets fell simultaneously. Simplified Risk Measures MPT equates risk with volatility, which doesn’t always capture the full picture. Sharp price swings don’t necessarily mean an asset is risky, and relatively stable prices don’t guarantee reliability. This narrow definition can lead to overlooking other important factors, like liquidity or credit risk. How Investors and Traders Use MPT Today Modern Portfolio Theory remains a cornerstone of investment strategy, and its principles are widely applied in portfolio construction, asset allocation, and diversification. Portfolio Construction and Asset Allocation Central to Modern Portfolio Theory is asset allocation: determining the optimal mix of assets based on an investor’s risk tolerance and goals. A classic example is the 60/40 portfolio, which allocates 60% to equities for growth and 40% to bonds for so-called stability. This balance aims to provide steady possible returns with reduced volatility over time. Another well-known approach is Ray Dalio’s All-Weather Portfolio, designed to perform across various economic conditions. It includes: - 30% stocks - 40% long-term bonds - 15% intermediate bonds - 7.5% gold - 7.5% commodities This portfolio reflects MPT's emphasis on diversification and risk management, spreading investments across asset classes that respond differently to market shifts. Alternative Investments and Diversification MPT has evolved to include alternative investments like real estate, private equity, crypto*, hedge funds, and even carbon credits. These assets often have lower correlations with traditional markets, enhancing diversification. For example, real estate might perform well during inflationary periods, offsetting potential declines in equities. Investors also consider geographic diversification, combining domestic and international assets to balance regional risks. Implications for Traders While MPT is often associated with long-term investing, its principles can inform trading strategies. For instance, traders might diversify their positions across uncorrelated markets, such as equities and commodities, to reduce overall portfolio volatility. Dynamic position sizing—adjusting exposure based on market conditions—also aligns with MPT’s risk-return framework. The Bottom Line The Modern Portfolio Theory offers valuable insights into balancing possible risk and returns, helping traders and investors create diversified, resilient portfolios. While it has its limitations, MPT’s principles remain widely used in portfolio construction and trading strategies. FAQ What Is the Modern Portfolio Theory? The Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) is a framework that helps investors construct portfolios to balance possible risk and returns. It emphasises diversification, using statistical analysis to combine assets with varying risk and return profiles to reduce volatility and optimise potential income. What Are the Two Key Ideas of Modern Portfolio Theory? MPT focuses on two main concepts: diversification and the risk-return trade-off. Diversification spreads investments across assets to potentially reduce risk, while the risk-return trade-off seeks to maximise possible returns for a given level of risk. What Are the Most Important Factors in Modern Portfolio Theory? Key factors include expected returns, risk (measured by volatility), and correlation between assets. These elements determine how assets interact within a portfolio, enabling investors to build an efficient mix that aligns with their risk tolerance and goals. What Are the Disadvantages of Modern Portfolio Theory? MPT assumes rational behaviour and relies on historical data, which does not predict future market behaviour. It also underestimates extreme events and simplifies risk by equating it solely with volatility. *Important: At FXOpen UK, Cryptocurrency trading via CFDs is only available to our Professional clients. They are not available for trading by Retail clients. To find out more information about how this may affect you, please get in touch with our team. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XAUUSDEducation
by FXOpen
1
Gold Sell and Buy Trading PlanH4 - We had a strong bullish move with the price creating a series of higher highs, higher lows structure This strong bullish move ended with a bearish Divergence While measuring this strong bullish move using the Fibonacci retracement tool we have two key support zones that has formed (marked in green) So based on this I expect short term bearish moves now towards the Fibonacci support zones and then continuation higher. If you enjoy this idea, don’t forget to LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌, and COMMENT ✍! Drop your thoughts and charts below to keep the discussion going. Your support helps keep this content free and reach more people! 🚀 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:XAUUSDLong
by VladimirRibakov
2
Bullish continuation?The Gold (XAU/USD) has bounced off the pivot and could rise to the 1st resistance. Pivot: 3,300.14 1st Support: 3,245.08 1st Resistance: 3,376.40 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by ICmarkets
1
Gold Buying every dip as expectedTechnical analysis: Gold maintains Buying sentiment (remember the cycle I mentioned regarding #14-day symmetry for aggressive uptrend extension / Traders are witnessing it) from yesterday’s session Hourly 4 chart’s Support break, however the Selling pace has slowed down as Gold is already near #3,227.80 - #3,232.80 former Resistance zone due Hourly 4 chart on critically Overbought condition. Fundamental analysis: Gold is isolated within Bullish Megaphone bounce formation and if there wasn’t parallel Buying pressure from Fundamental side, Price-action would be significantly Lower (I highlighted that only catalyst which can revive the Price-action and kick-start the relief rally is on Fundamental side). The Hourly 4 chart’s indicators were showcasing that Gold was Overbought and many other were about to make a Bearish roll-over as I believed that I should start preparing ourselves for a slight pullback (Medium-term trend stays Bullish though especially with DX still critically Bearish, taking strong hits and Bond Yields rejected on #3-Week Top zone). Next Resistance is priced at #3,252.80 / break of it might extend the uptrend towards #3,252.80 benchmark configuration. My position: Gold is soaring as it represents safe-haven asset, I'd prefer to stay with the trend (Bullish). I have attempted to Buy Gold on #3,208.80 and since Price-action tested #3,214.80 I moved my Stop on breakeven and it got triggered moments ahead which left me without order and Gold delivered #3,225.80 extension. However I have managed to re-Sell #3,225.80. I will keep Buying every dip on Gold for maximum Profit optimisation from my calculated re-Buy zones. #3,192.80 is Support for current Bullish motion.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by goldenBear88
1
Gold Price Surpasses $3,300 for the First Time in HistoryGold Price Surpasses $3,300 for the First Time in History Just six days ago, we highlighted the historic breakthrough of the $3,200 level for the first time. Now, as the XAU/USD chart shows today, the price of an ounce of gold on global exchanges is fluctuating above $3,300. Bullish sentiment is being driven by a weakening US dollar and rising trade tensions between the United States and China, which are boosting gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. In response to these developments, Goldman Sachs analysts have raised their year-end 2025 forecast to $3,700. However, technical analysis is beginning to flash some bearish signals. Technical Analysis of XAU/USD Using the latest data, we have drawn an ascending channel on the hourly chart that more accurately reflects price action since 8 April. Initially, the price moved within a narrow range, but after breaking the S-line, it found support (indicated by an arrow) at the lower boundary of the channel. At present, there are signs of fading upward momentum in the gold market, as the price: → is failing to reach the median line (marked with a symbol); → is falling below the lower boundary of the channel. After a rally of over 26% since the beginning of the year, the market may now be heavily overbought, and a correction could help “let off steam”. In this case, a test of the $3,250 level cannot be ruled out. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XAUUSD
by FXOpen
1
Market Analysis: Gold Extends Record RunMarket Analysis: Gold Extends Record Run Gold price started a fresh surge above the $3,250 resistance level. Important Takeaways for Gold Price Analysis Today - Gold price started a fresh surge and traded to a new record high at $3,384 against the US Dollar. - A key bullish trend line is forming with support at $3,322 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen. Gold Price Technical Analysis On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price formed a base near the $3,200 zone. The price started a steady increase above the $3,250 and $3,280 resistance levels. There was a decent move above the 50-hour simple moving average and $3,350. The bulls pushed the price above the $3,380 resistance zone. A new record high was formed near $3,384 and the price is now consolidating gains. On the downside, immediate support is near the $3,362 level and the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $3,283 swing low to the $3,384 high. The next major support sits at $3,322. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support at $3,322. It is near the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $3,283 swing low to the $3,384 high. A downside break below the trend line support might send the price toward the $3,282 support. Any more losses might send the price toward the $3,242 support zone. Immediate resistance is near the $3,384 level. The next major resistance is near the $3,388 level. An upside break above the $3,388 resistance could send Gold price toward $3,500. Any more gains may perhaps set the pace for an increase toward the $3,520 level. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XAUUSD
by FXOpen
1
Global Geopolitical Risks Soar: Gold to Hit $3400 TomorrowGlobal Geopolitical Risks Soar: Gold to Hit $3,400 Tomorrow 👉 The Russia-Ukraine Conflict 😖: Putin announced that the Russian military would observe a 30-hour ceasefire during the Orthodox Easter period ⏰. Zelensky said that the duration was insufficient and demanded a comprehensive 30-day ceasefire ⏳, and also pointed out that the Russian military still had 26 assault actions and other offensive operations 💥. The Russian Ministry of Defense stated that the Ukrainian military launched 444 shelling attacks and 900 drone strikes 🚀, resulting in civilian casualties 😭. The two sides stick to their respective positions, and the situation remains tense 🤕. The South China Sea Situation 🚢: On April 20th, the Philippine Patrol Vessel No. 36 illegally entered China's Huangyan Island territorial sea 🛳️. The Navy of the Southern Theater Command of the Chinese People's Liberation Army drove it away in accordance with the law 🛡️. Its behavior seriously violated China's sovereignty ❗, and China firmly defends its territorial integrity 🇨🇳. China-US Relations: The US labels China as its top strategic rival, rolling out trade protectionist moves like “301 investigations” on China’s maritime and shipbuilding sectors 🚢 and semiconductor sanctions ⚙️. This stokes global trade friction risks and market uncertainty, driving funds into the gold market for safety 💰. Situations in the United States 📰: Economic Game 💸: Trump criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell for being slow in decision-making and called for interest rate cuts 📉. Powell emphasized that the Federal Reserve is not subject to political interference 🙅‍♂️. The two sides are at loggerheads, triggering heated discussions in the economic field 💬. Protests in Multiple Places 🤜🤛: On the 19th, there were more than 700 protest activities in cities such as New York and Washington, D.C. 🏃‍♂️🏃‍♀️. The public opposed the Trump administration's actions that violated civil rights, such as deporting immigrants and downsizing the federal government 🚫, and the atmosphere at the scene was intense 🔥. California's Litigation ⚖️: California Governor Gavin Newsom sued the federal government 📄, stating that Trump's imposition of tariffs on multiple countries was illegal, which led to rising prices and economic losses in the state 💰. This is the first case in the United States where a state sues the federal government over tariff issues, attracting extensive attention from the legal community 👀. Supreme Court Ruling 🏛️: On the 19th, the Supreme Court halted the Trump administration's action of deporting Venezuelan immigrants based on the Alien Enemy Act of 1798 🚫. The ruling result has a significant impact on the immigration policy 🌍. The Middle East Region 🌴: The Israel-Palestine Conflict 💥: On the 20th, the Israeli Air Force killed the deputy commander of the 4400 Force of Hezbollah in Lebanon and other two people 💣. The regional situation escalated again, and the road to peace is difficult and tortuous 😔. The Attack in Iraq ⚠️: In the early morning of the 20th local time in Iraq, the Al-Qarghuli military base in Babil Province was attacked, resulting in one death and eight injuries 😱. Both the United States and Israel denied their involvement, and the reasons behind the attack are shrouded in mystery 🧐. Others 🌏: The Earthquake in Myanmar 🌋: On March 28th, a strong earthquake with a magnitude of 7.7 to 7.9 occurred in Sagaing Region, Myanmar, causing significant casualties and property losses 😢. The international community has extended a helping hand 🤝 Ecuador's Alert 🚨: On the 19th, due to a planned terrorist attack against the president and cabinet members, Ecuador entered a state of maximum alert, and the whole country is on high alert 👮‍♂️ Tesla's Setback 🚗: In the first quarter, Tesla's sales in Europe plummeted 📉. The declines in Germany, Denmark, and Sweden exceeded 50%, and in the Netherlands, it was nearly halved. The Cybertruck performed poorly in the market and was frequently recalled due to quality issues 🔧. The market prospects are full of challenges 😟 Aviation Accident ✈️: On the 19th, a small single-engine plane crashed in Illinois, the United States. The injury situation of the four people on board is unknown 😰. This is the fifth serious aviation accident this month, and aviation safety issues have aroused concern 😓 Internal Conflict in Ukraine 🔫: In the early morning of April 20th, a father and son who were both Ukrainian soldiers opened fire during a police inspection in Vinnytsia region, killing one police officer and injuring another, and then fled 🚓. The police issued a wanted notice for the two, highlighting the internal security issues 😫 💰💰💰 XAUUSD💰💰💰 🎯 Buy@3320 - 3330 🎯 TP 3360 - 3400 Traders, if you're fond of this perspective or have your own insights regarding it, feel free to share in the comments. I'm really looking forward to reading your thoughts! 🤗 👇The accuracy rate of our daily signals has remained above 98% within a month! 📈 We sincerely welcome you to join our channel and share in the success with us! 🌟
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by PearlMichael
1
GOLD Trade Plan 16/04/2025Dear Traders, "Gold continues its bullish trend without any significant correction, primarily driven by ongoing systematic risks. At present, in the 4-hour timeframe, it has reached the upper boundary of its ascending channel. Should a correction take place, a retracement toward the 3250 level is possible. Following that, the chart should be re-evaluated to identify potential buying opportunities." If you enjoyed this forecast, please show your support with a like and comment. Your feedback is what drives me to keep creating valuable content." Regards, Alireza
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by alirezak
2
DeGRAM | GOLD Slows Under Resistance📊 Technical Analysis GOLD failed to break out above the resistance line near $3 400 and is retreating from overbought levels​; low volatility signals weakening momentum and a likely pullback toward support around $3 325. 💡 Fundamental Analysis Short-term macro drivers also tilt bearish. Rising U.S. Treasury yields are making gold less attractive, while hawkish Fed signals fueled by strong U.S. data have strengthened the dollar​. ✨ Summary Technical and fundamental factors point to a short-term bearish correction in XAUUSD. ------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with a like. Thanks for your support!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by DeGRAM
2
How will gold trend?Last week, the market was closed and adjusted over the weekend, and the overall sentiment focused on the safe-haven properties of gold. As concerns about the U.S. debt crisis intensified and the dollar's credibility came under pressure, gold became the first choice for global funds to avoid risks, and prices continued to rise. The current U.S. dollar index hit a three-year low and lacked effective support, which further strengthened the logic of gold's rise. Technically, the gold daily level showed a continuous rise in large positive lines, and the 1-hour moving average system maintained a golden cross upward bullish arrangement, indicating that the bulls were strong. In the Asian session, the gold price once again set a new record high of $3,376. As the gold price continued to rise, the risk of chasing highs was gradually increasing. At present, the market sentiment is biased towards bulls, but after the continuous rise in gold prices, the correction may expand accordingly. At present, the upper resistance is at 3380-3385, and the lower support is at 3353-3347. In terms of operation, it is recommended to mainly do long callbacks, supplemented by rebounds from high altitudes. ​ Operation strategy 1: Sell in the range: 3388-3383, SL: 3400, TP: 3370-3360. ​ Operation strategy 2: Buy in the range: 3355-3350, SL: 3344, TP: 3375-3385. ​
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by GoldenViewJake
1
Gold on another Fundamental uptrendAs discussed throughout my yesterday's session commentary: Technical analysis: I have announced that Gold might skyrocket as next Resistance zone is priced at #3,322.80 / break of it might extend the uptrend towards #3,352.80 benchmark configuration. Gold has invalidated solid Neutral Rectangle on Hourly 4 chart and if you recall, delivered #2 additional Higher High’s extension (my chart’s explanation that Gold always delivers #3 Higher High's extensions ahead of full scale reversal, so practically I have one more Higher High’s to expect according to the cycle). DX (# -0.63% almost) is again turning the market sentiment to Bullish on Intra-day basis, and according to my estimations, current Buying sequence was due to the Trump's tariff's talks, which is being aggressively Bought due to the remarks. #3rd Higher High's extension is delivered ahead of #3,352.80 - #3,362.80 Ultimate Top's and new ATH's and now Gold is consolidating before revealing next major move. That was enough for me to close all my Buying orders and turn to Selling now and if there aren't new Tariff's news, Gold is ready to correct current gains and if #3,292.80 - #3,300.80 gives away, expect #3,252.80 benchmark next.
TVC:GOLDShort
by goldenBear88
1
When will gold's continued surge peak?If the daily line does not show a negative trend, try not to short or guess the top. The support points below are 3300 and 3283. If it falls below 3300, it will no longer be extremely strong. If it falls below 3195, there may be room for a deep decline. Therefore, we should pay attention to the gains and losses of 3300 and 3195 during the week. The 4-hour cycle has been in a strong state in the continuous rise. After the adjustment on Thursday last week, it was confirmed that the support of the middle track below is very strong. It is currently near the support of 3300, so it just meets the view of the daily line. Then, do not guess the top during the rise, wait for the 4-hour cycle Bollinger to close, or fall back to the gains and losses of the Bollinger middle track support point. In the morning, gold opened directly up and set a new high again. Maintaining the principle of not chasing orders in the Asian and European sessions, it is expected to fall back after the high. Pay attention to 3357 and 3342 below, and wait for a fall back to go long in the extremely strong.
FXOPEN:XAUUSDLong
by MortimerPriestley
1
Gold Hits Another All-Time High Amid Market JittersHello, XAUUSD has once again surged to a record high of 3245.515 this Friday, driven by a weakening dollar and renewed U.S.-China tensions. As uncertainty grows, gold continues to shine as a safe haven asset—bolstered by fears of a potential recession and lingering inflation concerns. The rally is further supported by rising expectations that the Federal Reserve may soon begin cutting interest rates. While some analysts anticipate a short-term pullback, the broader trend remains bullish, fueled by rate cut hopes, global instability, and ongoing strong demand. Currently, gold is hovering around a key resistance level at 3272.103 . This area could mark the final push—designed to trap overly optimistic buyers—before a potential bearish reversal. If this resistance holds, it could trigger a significant downside move, possibly targeting the 1-year pivot point (PP) at 2466.313 . Although current conditions may not seem to support such a drop, these are exactly the kind of unexpected moves market manipulators might orchestrate. Remember what happened when Trump posted bullish comments followed by a 90-day tariff break? Stocks temporarily soared. The takeaway? Anything is possible. One could argue there's an effort to stabilize the USD, masked by public optimism that doesn’t always reflect economic reality. This all points to a potential bigger play unfolding—a move that temporarily strengthens the dollar, possibly as part of a broader long-term strategy. We’re likely to see sharp bursts of USD strength followed by weakness, creating a rollercoaster pattern as the U.S. works to rebuild and gradually reinforce its currency. Trump’s current leverage comes from the power of the U.S. consumer—arguably among the most valuable in the world. Over time, more countries may be compelled to strike favorable deals with the U.S. to avoid economic fallout from imposed tariffs. It’s like a trial period for a premium service: first, you get a taste of the benefits without tariffs, and once you're accustomed to it, the terms change—creating a stark contrast that acts as a negotiation tool. This “shock factor” strategy—swinging from favorable to harsh conditions—puts other nations in a position of urgency and increases the likelihood of deal-making. While technicals and fundamentals still play a role in the market, tariffs are currently the main catalyst behind the scenes. In summary: 📊 XAUUSD Market Overview – April 2025 🟡 Current Status Latest High: 3245.515 🔺 (Record-breaking) Key Resistance: 3272.103 Trend: Bullish momentum fueled by: Weaker USD 💵 Fed rate cut expectations 📉 Recession & inflation fears 😟 Geopolitical tension (U.S.–China) 🌏⚠️ 🔮 Potential Scenarios Condition Market Reaction 🔼 Break above 3272.103 More upside likely – bull trend continuation 🐂📈 🔽 Rejection at 3272.103 Bearish reversal – trap for late buyers 🐻📉 🎯 Bearish Target: 1Y Pivot Point @ 2466.313 📌 Underlying Narrative USD Stabilization Strategy: Behind-the-scenes moves to strengthen dollar temporarily. Tariff Manipulation: Market shocks used as leverage in international trade talks. Trump Factor: Tariffs → Shock value → Deals → Strengthen USD via negotiation. Psychology: "Free trial" tactic – benefits removed to push for favorable deals. 📈 Key Takeaway If 3272.103 holds as resistance → Bearish move ahead If broken → Expect continued bullish momentum Good luck out there! The Support and Resistance outlined in green and red are the respective support/resistance for this pair currently for 1D-1Y timeframes! No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a Boost TradeWithTheTrend3344
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TradeWithTheTrend3344
2
Gold Ideas for Tuesday April 15Trend Context: Bullish but showing signs of exhaustion near 3247. Focus: liquidity grab + intraday rejection potential. 🔍 Market Structure Overview HTF (H4–12H): Bullish structure holding after the impulsive move 3120 → 3248. Current premium zone tested around 3233–3247 (H4 OB + FVG). LTF (M15–H1): Reaccumulation structure between 3172–3247. BOS confirmed on M15 from 3180. Current PA shows early rejection wicks near 3230–3240. 🧠 Liquidity Zones & Imbalances 🔴 Supply Zone: 3233–3247 → H1–H4 OB confluence with premium FVG. Still unmitigated. 🟠 Demand Zone 1: 3172–3180 → Daily imbalance + H1 demand + fib 61.8%. 🟢 Demand Zone 2: 3120–3130 → Only valid on deeper correction sweep (low probability today). ⚠️ Liquidity Trap: 3215–3220 → May induce late buyers into supply rejection. 📍 Trade Setups SELL ZONE Entry: 3233–3247 SL: 3252 TP1: 3210 TP2: 3180 TP3: 3145 📌 Reason: HTF OB + FVG + premium level. Look for M5/M15 CHoCH confirmation only. BUY ZONE Entry: 3172–3180 SL: 3160 TP1: 3205 TP2: 3230 TP3: 3245 📌 Reason: Daily imbalance + H1 demand confluence + clean internal liquidity sweep expected. 🧭 Summary Price is consolidating between 3172–3247. Upside capped by unmitigated OBs while downside is protected by a strong daily imbalance. NY may attempt a sweep into one zone before real move unfolds. Use patience — wait for CHoCH or BOS confirmation on LTF before entering. 📌 Important Notice!!! The above analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always compare with your plan and wait for confirmation before taking action.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by GoldMindsFX
1