Looking for catalysts - Gold Outlook July 7 - July 11, 2025All about last week you can find here:
FX_IDC:XAUUSD Gold is currently seeking fresh catalysts this week. 🧐
While the economic calendar appears light for this time of year, a lack of economic data doesn't mean nothing is happening. Geopolitical events, especially tariff wars or other flashpoints, remain significant. Are there increasing signs for peace in the Middle East between Israel and Hamas? 🕊️
This week Gold could take advantage from an exisiting reversal head and shoulders pattern and painting pitchfork in the chart shows possibillities for Upside targeting $3400.
## Geopolitical News Landscape 🌍📰
Israel / Iran ⚔️🛑☢️
After fierce clashes in June, a **ceasefire** began June 24. 🇮🇷 Iran's Supreme Leader reappeared July 6, claiming victory 🎤. Tehran has now **banned IAEA inspectors** ❌🔍. Over 900 Iranians reportedly killed ⚰️.
🔮 Outlook: ⚠️ Nuclear tensions growing, diplomacy frozen 🧊. Regional powers remain on high alert 🚨.
India / Pakistan 🗻🔫🕌
Tense calm in Kashmir 😐. India launched its sacred **Amarnath Yatra** 🕉️ under heavy security 🛡️. Pakistan killed 30 militants near the Afghan border ⚔️, while China 🐉 admitted sharing intel 📡.
🔮 Outlook: Diplomatic track stays open 🕊️, but **border flare-ups** and water disputes 💧 remain volatile 🔥.
Gaza Conflict 💣🏘️🕊️
Israel launched deadly airstrikes ✈️, including one on a beach café ☕🏖️ killing 22. Dozens more died 💔. IDF admitted accidental strikes on aid sites 🚚❌. U.S.-led talks seek a **60-day truce** 🤝.
🔮 Outlook: Ceasefire possible 🛑, but **humanitarian crisis** worsening 🚨🩺. Trust remains fragile 💔.
Russia / Ukraine ⚔️
Zelenskyy 🇺🇦 and Trump 📞 discussed new air defense aid 🎯. Russia answered with **massive drone strikes** on Kyiv 🚁🔥. NATO boosts arms shipments 🔫 and backs Ukraine’s domestic weapons production 🏭.
🔮 Outlook: War grinds on ⚙️. No peace in sight, with **global stakes** rising 📈.
U.S. / China Trade War 💼📦🔥
With new tariffs looming 📆💣, Treasury said “multiple deals” are near 🤝. Trump claimed a **partial deal with China** 🐉, though tariffs remain high 📊.
🔮 Outlook: More piecemeal deals 🍰, but a **full-scale trade reset** looks unlikely before elections 🗳️.
🌍 Global Trade War 📉🚢💸
Trump’s shifting tariffs 🎯 hurt global growth 🌐. Markets hit record highs 📈 but investment chills ❄️. The 💵 dollar had its sharpest 6-month drop 📉 in decades.
🔮 Outlook: Businesses remain cautious ⚠️. **Supply chains** reroute 🔄. No global rebound without clarity 🔍.
Trump vs. Powell 💥🏛️📉
Trump demanded Powell’s resignation ❌📉, accusing him of weak rate policy 📊. Powell held firm 🧊, citing inflation risks 📈. Trump eyes replacements 👀🪑.
🔮 Outlook: Fed independence 🏛️ under fire 🔥. **Rate policy** may get politicized ahead of 2025 elections 🗳️.
📈 U.S. Inflation 🛒💰🧾
Inflation slowed to 0.1% 🐢, but tariffs raised prices on appliances 🔌 (+4.3%) and toys 🧸. Fed projects 3% inflation by year-end 📊.
🔮 Outlook: As **tariffs bite** 🦷, inflation likely to climb 📈. Fed stays cautious 🧐 on cuts.
Technical View 📐📈
Analysis Period: May 25 - June 6, 2025 | Forecast: June 7-11, 2025
1. ICT (Inner Circle Trader) Methodology Analysis 🧠
Market Structure
Higher Timeframe Bias: The chart shows a clear bullish market structure with higher highs and higher lows from the major low around 3,250. 🐂
Current Structure: Price is in a consolidation phase after reaching highs near 3,370, showing potential distribution. ⚖️
Key ICT Concepts Identified:
Fair Value Gap (FVG): Multiple gaps visible during the strong rally from 3,250 to 3,370. 💨
Order Blocks: Significant demand zone around 3,250-3,260 level (major accumulation area). 📦
Liquidity Zones:
Buy-side liquidity above 3,370 (recent highs). 💸
Sell-side liquidity below 3,320 (recent consolidation lows). 📉
Market Maker Models: Classic accumulation-manipulation-distribution pattern visible. 🔄
Session Analysis:
London Session: Shows strong directional moves. 🇬🇧
New York Session: Continuation of trends with increased volatility. 🗽
Asian Session: Consolidation and range-bound behavior. 🌏
2. Gann Analysis 🧙♂️
Gann Angles & Time Cycles:
Primary Trend: 1x1 angle supporting the bullish move from 3,250. ↗️
Resistance Angles: 2x1 and 3x1 angles providing resistance around current levels. 🚧
Time Cycles:
7-day cycle showing completion around June 2-3. 🗓️
14-day cycle suggesting potential reversal window June 7-9. ⏳
Gann Price Levels:
Major Support: 3,250 (1/8 level). 🛡️
Current Resistance: 3,370 (7/8 level). 🛑
Next Target: 3,400 (full octave completion). 🎯
Geometric Relationships:
Price squared relationship suggests 3,380-3,400 as natural resistance. 📐
Time-price balance indicates consolidation period before next major move. 🕰️⚖️
3. Fibonacci Analysis ✨
Retracement Levels (from 3,250 low to 3,370 high):
23.6%: 3,341.6
38.2%: 3,324.2
50.0%: 3,310.0
61.8%: 3,295.8
78.6%: 3,265.6
Extension Levels:
127.2%: 3,402.6
161.8%: 3,444.2
200.0%: 3,490.0
Current Analysis:
Price has respected the 23.6% retracement level multiple times. ✅
Strong support confluence at 38.2% level (3,324). 💪
Extension targets suggest potential move to 3,402-3,444 range. 🚀
4. Institutional Levels Analysis 🏦
Psychological Levels:
3,300: Major round number providing support. 💯
3,350: Mid-level resistance. 📊
3,400: Next major psychological target. 🎯
Institutional Order Flow:
Accumulation Zone: 3,250-3,280 (heavy institutional buying). 💰
Distribution Zone: 3,350-3,370 (profit-taking area). 💸
Breakout Target: 3,400+ (next institutional objective). ⬆️
Volume Analysis:
High volume on the initial move up from 3,250. 📈
Decreasing volume during consolidation (typical distribution pattern). 📉
Volume expansion needed for breakout confirmation. 💥
5. Cycle Timing Analysis ⏰
Short-Term Cycles:
3-day cycle: Currently in compression phase. 🤏
7-day cycle: Completed around June 2-3. ✅
14-day cycle: Due for completion June 7-9. ⏳
Medium-Term Cycles:
Monthly cycle: Bullish momentum phase. ⬆️
Quarterly cycle: In expansion phase. 🌟
Cycle Projection:
Next major cycle turn expected June 7-9. 🔄
Potential for either breakout or correction during this window. 🤞
6. FORECAST: June 7-11, 2025 🔮
Primary Scenario (60% probability): Bullish Breakout 🚀
Target 1: 3,400-3,410
Target 2: 3,440-3,450
Catalyst: Break above 3,370 with volume. 💥
Timeline: June 7-9 initial move, June 10-11 extension.
Secondary Scenario (35% probability): Corrective Pullback ⬇️
Target 1: 3,320-3,325 (38.2% Fibonacci)
Target 2: 3,300-3,310 (psychological support)
Catalyst: Failure to break 3,370 resistance. 🚫
Timeline: June 7-8 decline, June 9-11 consolidation.
Low Probability Scenario (5% probability): Deep Correction 📉
Target: 3,280-3,290 (61.8% Fibonacci)
Catalyst: Major risk-off sentiment. 😱
Timeline: Extended throughout the week.
7. Key Assumptions & Risk Factors 🤔
Bullish Assumptions:
Continued institutional accumulation at current levels. 🏦
Breakout above 3,370 with confirming volume. ⬆️
Favorable macroeconomic backdrop for gold. 🌍
Weakness in USD supporting gold prices. 💵
Geopolitical tensions maintaining safe-haven demand. 🕊️
Bearish Risk Factors:
Profit-taking at psychological 3,400 level. 🤝
Stronger USD due to economic data. 💹
Reduced safe-haven demand. 📉
Technical failure at key resistance levels. 🚧
Central bank policy shifts. 🏛️
8. Trading Recommendations 💡
Entry Strategies:
Bullish Setup: Buy on pullback to 3,340-3,345 with stop below 3,320. 🎯
Breakout Play: Buy break above 3,372 with stop below 3,350. 🚀
Conservative: Wait for retest of 3,324 support area. patiently 🧘
Risk Management:
Position Size: Limit to 2-3% of portfolio per trade. 📏
Stop Loss: Always use stops below key support levels. ⛔
Take Profit: Scale out at Fibonacci extension levels. 💰
Key Levels to Watch:
Immediate Resistance: 3,365-3,370 🛑
Support: 3,340-3,345 🛡️
Breakout Level: 3,372 🚀
Major Support: 3,320-3,325 💪
9. Conclusion ✅
The XAUUSD chart presents a constructive bullish setup with multiple confluences supporting higher prices. The completion of various cycles around June 7-9 suggests a potential catalyst for the next major move. While the primary bias remains bullish targeting 3,400+, traders should remain alert to the possibility of a corrective pullback to test lower support levels. 🧐
The institutional accumulation pattern, combined with favorable Gann angles and Fibonacci projections, supports the bullish thesis. However, proper risk management is essential given the potential for volatility around key psychological levels. ⚠️
Please take the time to let me know what you think about this. 💬
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This is just my personal market idea and not financial advice! 📢 Trading gold and other financial instruments carries risks – only invest what you can afford to lose. Always do your own analysis, use solid risk management, and trade responsibly.
Good luck and safe trading! 🚀📊
