THE KOG REPORT - UpdateEnd of day update from us here at KOG:
That worked pretty well!
We gave the path yesterday for the potential move up on open and the target level we would be looking for which was 600pips away. Market opened, straight into the target level! It's there we got a small RIP but nothing significant so we decided to wait as Excalibur activated. That gave some traders an opportunity to long again into the target which is where we shared the RIP captured for the short.
We're still not re-testing that level which could mean support below holds at the 3406-10 region and we see a retest of that 3430-35 level during the session to come. It that level again that needs to be watched with the extension of the move into 3450-55 which is now open!
As always, trade safe.
KOG
XAUUSDG trade ideas
Gold Potential Ideas - April 23, ahead of Unemployment Claims📉 Macro Snapshot – April 24, 2025
Gold is currently trading at 3337, stuck in mid-structure between supply at 3384–3414 and demand stacked between 3255–3260 and 3224–3233.
🕒 Key time today: Unemployment Claims and Durable Goods Orders hit. High-impact potential.
Expectations:
🔺 Strong data → possible spike down into buy zones
🔻 Weak data → potential liquidity grab into sell zones first
No confirmed shift unless 3344 is broken or 3220 is reclaimed. This is a reaction day, not a breakout day. Let price come to levels — and strike with confirmation.
🔴 SELL ZONES
🔴 Sell Zone 1: 3384 – 3393
🧱 Confluences: HTF imbalance + OB + structural trap zone
🛡 SL: 3398
🎯 TP1: 3365
🎯 TP2: 3341
🎯 TP3: 3310
🔴 Sell Zone 2: 3410 – 3415
🧱 Confluences: Premium OB + liquidity grab zone
🛡 SL: 3421
🎯 TP1: 3384
🎯 TP2: 3362
🎯 TP3: 3330
🔴 Sell Zone 3: 3450 – 3457
🧱 Confluences: Untouched HTF OB + psychological stop hunt
🛡 SL: 3465
🎯 TP1: 3410
🎯 TP2: 3380
🎯 TP3: 3341
🟢 BUY ZONES
🟢 Buy Zone 1: 3274 – 3282
📍 Strong support pocket — demand + Asia low
🛡 SL: 3264
🎯 TP1: 3300
🎯 TP2: 3330
🎯 TP3: 3350
🟢 Buy Zone 2: 3250– 3260
🧠 Confluences: Deep OB + liquidity grab + structural base
🛡 SL: 3245
🎯 TP1: 3272
🎯 TP2: 3300
🎯 TP3: 3313
🟢 Buy Zone 3: 3224 – 3233
📍 HTF EQ + reactive demand
🛡 SL: 3218
🎯 TP1: 3255
🎯 TP2: 3280
🎯 TP3: 3303
📌 Important Notice!!!
The above analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always compare with your plan and wait for confirmation before taking action.
📣 If this strategy sparked clarity, hit that like button and follow. 💛
XAUUSD Weekly-Daily-H4 Outlook – April 28, 2025"Gold’s Game: Range Trap... or Breakout Incoming?" 👀⚡
🔥 Macro + Micro Context:
Macroflow: No major macro catalysts today — market sentiment driven mostly by technicals, liquidity behavior, and late-week reactions.
Bias:
HTF (D1–W1): Still bullish-biased long-term, unless 3220–3235 breaks cleanly.
LTF (H4–M30): Currently trapped in a wide distribution range 3380–3260, showing signs of both liquidity sweeps and engineered traps.
Liquidity Dynamics:
Both upside and downside liquidity have been targeted multiple times. Equal highs/lows patterns forming, suggesting fakeouts are highly probable before any real move.
📈 STRUCTURAL RANGE:
🔵 Main Range:
• Top: 3380–3395 → major flip zone (premium side)
• Bottom: 3260–3280 → major demand zone (discount side)
📚 Inside the range:
• Liquidity is being farmed on both sides — expect fake spikes, stop hunts, and whipsaw moves before breakout.
🔑 H4 Key Zones (Above Current Price):
Level Type Notes
3380–3395 Major Supply + Flip Zone HTF orderblock + FVG + previous sell trap
3410–3415 Minor Supply Zone M30–H1 imbalance + small FVG
3448–3455 Major Premium Supply HTF OB + FIBO 1.618 extension + historical premium trap
3490–3500 ATH Area Strong psychological level + institutional interest
🔑 H4 Key Zones (Below Current Price):
Level Type Notes
3260–3280 Major Discount Demand Strong H1-H4 unmitigated OB + liquidity grab zone
3220–3235 HTF Reversal Demand Last HTF pivot for bullish bias
📊 Expected Scenarios:
Bullish Path:
Hold 3260–3280 → Break 3380–3395 → Target 3415 → Then 3450–3500 range sweep.
Bearish Path:
Fail at 3380–3395 → Sharp rejections back into 3280 → Potential crash toward 3235 and 3210.
👀 EYES ON:
Watch the 3380–3395 flip zone closely.
If price fails there with heavy wicks and low volume, bulls are trapped again.
If price holds above 3395–3415 cleanly, bulls regain control for 3450+.
🧠 FINAL MESSAGE:
"The best traders don’t predict. They prepare."
"Trap or breakout — it’s all about reaction, not prediction. Stay sharp, stay liquid, and don’t chase the donkey moves."
🔔 Follow for real-time smart updates
💬 Comment your bias below: bull 🐂 or bear 🐻? Let’s grow the community together!
#Gold #XAUUSD #TradingView #SmartMoney #RangeTrap #GoldOutlook
GOLD / XAUUSD | 15M | PENDING SELL ORDERHey there my dear friends;
SIGNAL ALERT
PENDING SELL ORDER - GOLD / XAUUSD > 3334,0
🟢TP1: 3328,0
🟢TP2: 3314,0
🟢TP3: 3296,0
🔴SL:3358,0
RR / 1,70
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I sincerely thank everyone who supports me with their likes.
GOLD falls more than 40 Dollars, widening correction rangeSpot OANDA:XAUUSD unexpectedly accelerated its decline during the Asian trading session on Monday (April 28). The current price of gold is around 3,280 USD/ounce, down more than 40 USD on the day. The price of gold has gradually decreased compared to the intraday high of 3,336.98 USD/ounce reached at the beginning of the trading session.
The easing of trade tensions between China and the United States has weakened gold’s appeal as a safe haven. Gold prices have fallen more than 5% since breaking above $3,500 an ounce last Wednesday.
The latest developments around US-China trade relations and the release of key US macroeconomic data will trigger gold’s near-term price action. Market participants will be closely watching US economic growth and employment data this week.
The latest data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed that hedge fund managers cut their net long positions in gold futures and options to a 14-month low.
Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold has dropped below the raw price of $3,300 and at its current position it could continue to decline further with a short-term target of around $3,245 where the price confluences with the upper edge of the price channel.
Although gold has fallen significantly from $3,500, looking at the overall chart, gold still has bullish conditions with support from EMA21 and the rising price channel as the long-term trend. On the other hand, the down trending RSI is also approaching the 50 level, in this case the 50 level is the closest support at present, indicating that there may not be much room for decline in the short term.
Once gold is back in action above the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level, it will be in position to rebound with a target of around $3,371 in the short term.
During the day, the bearish correction could continue but will be limited by the EMA21 and the price channel. Along with that, the bearish correction along with the main uptrend will be noticed by the following technical positions.
Support: $3,245 – $3,228 – $3,200
Resistance: $3,292 – $3,371
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3328 - 3326⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3332
→Take Profit 1 3320
↨
→Take Profit 2 3314
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3226 - 3228⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3222
→Take Profit 1 3234
↨
→Take Profit 2 3240
GOLD recovers, market sentiment correction may stopAfter US President Trump hinted that tariffs on China could be reduced and that he had no intention of removing Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, the market's risk-off sentiment cooled and international gold prices fell on Wednesday (April 23) before recovering slightly in early trading today, Thursday (April 24).
Last night, Trump made some important comments, not only clearly showing a softer stance on China but also making it clear that he had no intention of removing Federal Reserve Chairman Powell (in fact, he has no authority to do so).
The current bullish cycle in OANDA:XAUUSD is largely driven by the market pricing in the risk of “stagflation”, but as this risk is gradually eliminated, gold could see a significant correction.
Looking at the big picture, gold remains in an uptrend as real yields are likely to continue to fall amid the Fed’s easing policy. But in the short term, if positive tariff news continues to emerge, gold could fall further and the market will adjust to the new environment.
Earlier, after days of harsh criticism of the Federal Reserve for not cutting interest rates, Trump withdrew his threat to fire Chairman Powell. At the same time, he also expressed confidence in reaching a deal with China to significantly reduce import tariffs from China, but also warned that "if they don't make a deal, we'll make a deal."
Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday cut its forecast for global and US economic growth this year, citing Trump's tariff policies as the main reason for the downgrade.
As a traditional safe-haven asset, gold has set new historical highs several times since the beginning of 2025, with a cumulative increase of more than 26%.
Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
After 2 days of significant correction, gold recovered in today's Asian trading session (24/4) with the recovery level taking the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement point as the nearest support. As noted to readers throughout the publications, gold is still in an uptrend with the price channel as the main trend and the main support from the EMA21, as long as the price decline does not break below the above supports, it should only be considered a short-term correction or a buying opportunity.
As of now, gold is trading around $3,333/oz, up 1.38% on the day and around $45 and the upside momentum is expected to test the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level followed by $3,430.
For the day, the main technical outlook for gold is bullish recovery, and the notable positions are listed as follows.
Support: $3,300 – $3,292 – $3,245
Resistance: $3,371 – $3,430
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3383 - 3381⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3387
→Take Profit 1 3375
↨
→Take Profit 2 3369
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3206 - 3208⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3202
→Take Profit 1 3214
↨
→Take Profit 2 3220
Gold Trade Plan 25/04/2025Dear Traders,
There is no strong bullish momentum observed in gold, and it seems to be moving within a descending channel. Meanwhile, the dollar index has entered a reversal phase. I expect the price to drop into the 3220–3230 zone to gather momentum, A new update will be shared soon.
If you enjoyed this forecast, please show your support with a like and comment. Your feedback is what drives me to keep creating valuable content."
Regards,
Alireza
Gold depends on GDP numbersTechnical analysis: Gold naturally found Buyers as Buying pressure is evident on the charts from DX on Selling sequence. It is important to note that #3,300.80 is new / old Resistance, which was near Weekly High’s as Price-action could find strong rejection there and deny the Buying response in extension. If broken, Price-action will be calling for #3,327.80 extension once again which represents local Top's for current fractal. I will engage my orders accordingly and wait for suitable entry even though I have closed my order ahead of the final push above the Resistance. However, Gold re-tested and was again rejected on the Hourly 4 chart’s Support keeping the Bullish bias alive. The Engulfing candle Bearish reversal candle on Hourly 1 chart succeeded at rejecting the Price-action and catching already the #32% Fibonacci level. I expect the last Daily chart’s candle to test again the #3,272.80 former Resistance now turned to Support when DX finds the Support zone and engages relief rally.
My position: As mentioned above, Gold is ranging and Scalpers are getting most of the returns out of this Price-action. I will await GDP numbers and only then make my move.
Gold delivering side SwingsTechnical analysis: After today’s E.U. session excellent Bearish Short-term opening and clear Technical Selling signal, Fundamentals didn't managed to distort (as seen many times lately) Technical proper trend and from a clear #3,327.80 and main Support mild-aggressive break-out, Gold didn't recovered and tested #3,200.80 benchmark with almost #50-point Intra-day spread in Bear direction. Personally, reason behind it was market speculators pulling the DX (# +0.27%) back towards the Resistance zone, preventing further downtrend on #4-session horizon. Gold is on decline again driven by known factors and keeping almost (# +9.02%) gains comparing on Monthly (#1M) chart which strongly affected Technical values. That not much Buyers expected today’s mini Selling scenario - confirms the small Buying Volume where Gold is unable to reverse from current psychological benchmark. Sellers appear in good health off Swing once Support is now turned in Resistance at #3,327.80. Further Selling from current Price-action draws in Support at #3,252.80 (June #29 spike similarities) which is by my estimations really hard to reach since I can't count out that Gold is still on a Bullish perspective and I see this downside spike as an good re-Buy point as cycle is showcasing / every similar decline on Gold was just another accumulation zone for new Bullish multi-Month uptrend extension. What’s also interesting to mention that Gold soared even though DX was soaring as well, indicating elemental Volatile trend on Gold and almost all market classes. While Weekly chart’s (#1W) Price-action showcases that Gold is less likely heading for Lower levels, Fundamental side flow will reveal the major move (and how DX will digest it). I am enjoying current Price-action suitable for both Buyers and Sellers of the market and monitor DX to position yourself properly.
Gold rangingTechnical analysis: Gold naturally found Buyers as Buying pressure is evident on the charts from DX on Selling sequence and #3,262.80 Support preserved. It is important to note that #3,352.80 benchmark represents next Resistance zone, which was near Weekly (#1W) High’s as Price-action could find strong rejection there (as it did throughout Asian session) and deny the Buying response in extension. If broken, Price-action will be calling for #3,362.80 - #3,372.80 Resistance extension which may represent the local Top's for now and for current fractal. I will engage my orders accordingly and wait for suitable entry even though I have closed my Selling order on #3,288.80 ahead of the final push above the Resistance. However, Gold re-tested and was again rejected on the Hourly 4 chart’s Support keeping the Bullish bias alive. The Engulfing candle Bearish reversal candle on Hourly 1 chart succeeded at rejecting the Price-action and catching already the #32% Fibonacci level. I expect the last Daily chart’s candle to test again the #3,252.80 former Resistance now turned to Support when DX finds the Support zone and engages relief rally.
My position: I am currently Trading with caution as Fundamental side can deliver aggressive side Swing anytime, however I am taking excellent Scalp orders since Price-action is delivering optimal configuration to do so.
> "Gold (XAU/USD) - Demand Zone Bounce Targeting 3500 "Current Price: $3,319.59
Indicator: 70 EMA at $3,324.95 ➡️ 📈 (still slightly above price = bearish pressure)
---
Main Observations:
🔵 Demand Zone (📦 Buyers' Area):
Between $3,253 - $3,280
Every time price dips here ➡️ buyers react!
✏️ Descending Trendline:
⬇️ Short-term trend is bearish
Price is trying to break above it now (watch closely!)
🎯 Target Point:
$3,500 🏹 (Big upside if breakout succeeds!)
🛡️ Stop-Loss:
$3,253 🔥 (just below the demand zone = good protection)
Trade Idea:
✅ Buy near demand zone 🔵 after breakout confirmation 📈
✅ Target: $3,500 🎯
✅ Stop-Loss: $3,253 🛡️
Quick Dots Summary:
🔵 Demand zone is strong (buyers defending)
🔻 Still under 70 EMA (bearish until breakout)
✏️ Watching for breakout of trendline = key signal
🎯 Massive Risk:Reward ratio if it works
⚡ If no breakout and price falls, stop-loss saves capital.
The latest gold analysis strategyDespite touching a fresh all-time high of $3,358, the rally has cooled slightly as traders lock in profits ahead of the extended Easter weekend, with both European and US markets closed. Meanwhile, real yields have ticked higher, offering a modest headwind. On the policy front, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly noted that the US economy remains resilient, though some segments are showing signs of slowing. She emphasized that monetary policy is still restrictive enough to keep inflation in check, while also suggesting that neutral rates could be on the rise.
Gold price is still in a big uptrend, short-term corrections only make gold price accumulate more and continue to reach new ATH, tariffs are tense, gold price continues to increase strongly: 3382, 3400
Based on the resistance and support areas of the gold price according to the H4 frame, NOVA identifies the important key areas as follows:
Resistance: $3357, $3382, $3400
Support : $3284, $3236, $3155
Gold trend analysis todayIn this analysis we're focusing on 1H time frame for Gold. Today I'm expecting bullish momentum and my bias was bullish. On the basis of SMC concept and price action when price reach my zone and give any bullish confirmation, after observing strong confirmation. I'll trigger my trades. Let's see what happens and which opportunity market will give us.
This is a higher time frame outlook. Let's analyze more deeply in smaller time frame for finding ideal and crucial entry point. Confirmation is very important.
Gold remains short today!Before this round of gold plunge, there was a strong pull-up from a high position, and the record was reached at 3500. How many people bought too much at a high position. In the end, the market fell sharply, and there was no decent rebound at all, giving you a chance to escape. Therefore, trading cannot only focus on profits, but also take into account risks. When the media reports it, you must be careful, there is no eternal rise or fall.
If gold does not fall below 3260, it will return to 3500!On Tuesday (April 29) in the Asian session, spot gold fluctuated in a narrow range and is currently trading at $3329. Gold prices reversed their decline on Monday and rose. Earlier, they fell to around $3268, but then there was a low-absorption buying, and gold prices closed at $3343.91. At the same time, the dollar fell across the board on Monday, which also provided support for gold prices. Investors are cautiously waiting for further news on US trade policies and are preparing for a week of intensive economic data, which may initially indicate whether US President Trump's trade war is having an impact.
From a technical perspective, gold prices reversed their decline on Monday and rose. Gold repeatedly tested the 3260-3270 area for support. Gold has formed a multiple bottom structure in the short term, so gold may end its short-term adjustment. This time, gold has already adjusted, and it is unlikely to adjust again. Therefore, as long as it does not fall below the 3260 low in the near future, gold will rise and there will be room for growth. As for the high point, there are two dividing points, one is the 3337 high point. If it breaks through 3337, it will be a strong shock. The other is the 3370 high point. If it breaks through 3370, it will be absolutely strong. Then, the space above will open up, and we will look to return to the historical high of 3420-3500.
GOLD Getting Ready for Another Run!Gold is looking strong heading into the next few weeks. Real-world catalysts are stacking up:
Central banks are still aggressively buying gold (China and other BRICS nations are steadily increasing reserves).
Geopolitical tensions (Middle East, Russia/Ukraine) are keeping safe-haven demand alive.
U.S. economic data is showing signs of a slowdown — with weaker job reports and cooling inflation, expectations for rate cuts later this year are rising.
The dollar has softened a bit recently, giving gold room to breathe.
Technically, gold is holding key support levels and building momentum for a potential breakout. If economic data continues to weaken or geopolitical risks stay elevated, gold could quickly retest recent highs.
Gold fluctuates in a range and corrects sideways! Trend AnalysisAnalysis of gold market trends next Monday:
Technical analysis of gold: From the performance of the daily chart, the recent trend of gold prices has shown a high consolidation trend, and there has been a significant correction from the high point near $3,500. After hitting the low point of the week, the gold price rebounded to a certain extent, but the rebound strength was blocked near the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level (about $3,368-3,370), which has now become an important short-term resistance. The opening trend of the gold market on Friday was like Thursday, and the Asian session started to pull up and rise all the way to around $3,370. However, it encountered strong resistance here, and then turned downward and started to fall. It is worth noting that today's gold price not only failed to break through this key resistance level, but also fell below the low point hit by yesterday's European and American sessions, and rebounded after reaching a minimum of $3,265.
From the current market structure, the position of $3,260 has become the focus of the market, and investors need to pay close attention to whether the gold price can reach or even fall below this point. Once it effectively breaks, the bearish trend will be further strengthened, and the market may usher in a deeper adjustment. From the current form, there are two Yins enveloping Yangs, so the adjustment will continue at the beginning of next week; of course, this adjustment can be replaced by sideways trading, which means that it is not ruled out that it will run back and forth in the 3260-3380 range. On the whole, the short-term operation strategy for gold next Monday is recommended to be mainly long on pullbacks, supplemented by short on rebounds. The short-term focus on the upper resistance of 3368-3370, and the short-term focus on the lower support of 3265-3260. Friends must keep up with the rhythm. It is necessary to control the position and stop loss, set stop loss strictly, and do not resist single operation. The specific points are mainly based on real-time intraday trading. Welcome to experience and exchange real-time market conditions.
Reference for gold operation strategy next Monday: Strategy 1: Short gold rebounds near 3368-3370, target near 3300-3285, and look at the 3260 line when it breaks.
Strategy 2: Go long on gold when it pulls back to around 3265-3270, target around 3290-3330, and look at the 3370 line if it breaks.
Gold - Just Half Way To The Target!Gold ( TVC:GOLD ) still has a lot more upside potential:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Over the past couple of months, we saw an almost incredible breakout rally of about +75% on Gold. However, looking at technicals, there is a quite high chance that Gold will actually rally even more and retest the next upper resistance trendline, which would mean another pump of about +75%.
Levels to watch: $4.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)