Gold Breaks Trendline – Deeper Correction Ahead?Gold (XAUUSD) has just broken below its short-term ascending trendline formed since mid-May. The candle closed around $3,333, confirming a bearish engulfing pattern and highlighting growing selling pressure after multiple failed attempts to reclaim the $3,383–$3,399 resistance zone (Fibonacci 0.5–0.618).
Key Levels to Watch:
- Immediate Support: $3,315 (tested twice before)
- Main Resistance: $3,383–$3,399 (Fibonacci zone)
- Major Resistance: $3,435–$3,451 (May high zone)
If $3,315 fails to hold, gold could retest $3,285–$3,270, with deeper downside toward $3,222.
Technical Overview:
- The ascending trendline is now broken.
- Bearish engulfing candlestick confirms momentum shift.
- Price rejected sharply from Fibonacci 0.618 – $3,399.
Trade Setups to Consider:
Sell Opportunity: Short near $3,360–$3,383; stop loss above $3,400; targets at $3,315 and $3,270.
Speculative Buy: Watch for reversal patterns near $3,315; stop loss below $3,300; short-term target $3,350–$3,365.
Caution: This week brings major U.S. economic events (GDP, PCE, Fed speeches). Trade reactively, manage risk tightly, and avoid overleveraging.
XAUUSDG trade ideas
Bearish drop?The Gold (XAU/USD) is rising towards the pivot, which has been identified as an overlap resistance, and could drop to the 1st support, acting as a pullback support.
Pivot: 3,339.40
1st Support: 3,297.74
1st Resistance: 3,389.16
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GOLD 4H: structure broken - phase reversal beginsTwo key directional signals were recorded on the gold chart: first, a breakdown of the ascending channel, followed by a confident downward exit from the triangle with a clear fixation under the $3297 boundary. Both figures worked independently, but consistently - and strengthened the impulse towards selling.
The price has already gone beyond the lower boundary of the triangle ($3297), confirming the bearish scenario. Candlesticks closing under the level and local consolidation from below is a characteristic formation before the momentum continues.
Technical parameters:
- Channel breakout: completed
- Triangle breakout: $3297 level
- Retest from below: expected as confirmation
- EMAs reversed downwards, structure broken
- Volumes strengthened at the moment of breakout
Tactical plan:
- Sell after retest of $3297
- Targets on the move: $3248 and $3201
- Stop: above $3305 (above the area of false outs).
The current structure indicates the end of the accumulation phase and the beginning of the downward momentum. As long as the price holds below $3297 - shorts are the priority.
Exclusive operation suggestions for future market trends!!!Gold bottomed out and rebounded on Monday, so wait patiently for room for future gains. Technically, from the current hourly chart, the gold entity has always been above 3278, and it only pierced through 3275 and then began to rebound. If the retracement does not break the 618 position, there will inevitably be a high point in the future. So next, we should focus on the vicinity of 3280. If gold always closes above 3280, then the high point of 3297 on Monday is likely to be refreshed. Secondly, from the perspective of 123 seeking 4, if it goes up again, it is very likely to touch around 3310. 3310 is exactly around 618. And it is also the top position of this hourly chart range. Therefore, gold should be shorted above 3280 with caution, and the probability of touching above 3300 is very high. In terms of operation, it is recommended to directly enter the market to go long near 3280, and look at 3310-3320. If you want to short, you must wait at least for 3310-3320 before you can enter the market to short once.
Gold Confirms Breakdown — Eyes on $3100 TargetGold has broken below the neckline of multiple Head & Shoulders formations, signaling potential downside continuation. This technical development opens the path toward the projected target around $3100, Let’s monitor whether the pattern fulfills its full potential.
#Gold #XAUUSD #HeadAndShoulders #TechnicalAnalysis #ChartPattern #GoldForecast #TradingView #Commodities #PriceAction
Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD | February 7, 2025🌀 Elliott Wave Structure (H1 Timeframe)
Looking at the current price structure, we can see that the price is moving sharply and steeply—this suggests the formation of a 5-wave impulsive structure.
Specifically:
- Waves 1, 2, and 3 (green) appear to have completed.
- Currently, wave 4 is forming as a 3-wave corrective structure (abc in black).
- Once wave 4 completes, we anticipate the next upward move as wave 5, which will complete the full 5-wave cycle (green).
🎯 Potential Price Targets for Wave 4
Based on the structure of the abc correction and support zones, we identify two key target areas:
+ Target 1: 3324
+ Target 2: 3311
When the price breaks above the top of wave b (black), it will serve as a strong confirmation that wave 4 has ended and wave 5 is beginning.
📈 Momentum Analysis
Daily (D1): Momentum is still rising and likely needs 2–3 more days to enter the overbought zone, supporting the continuation of the uptrend.
H4: Momentum is about to turn upward, signaling wave 4 may be nearing completion.
H1: Momentum is also preparing to turn up, suggesting the price is approaching the end of the wave 4 correction zone.
💼 Trading Plan
BUY ZONE: 3325 – 3322
STOP LOSS: 3215
TAKE PROFIT 1: 3345
TAKE PROFIT 2: 3368
TAKE PROFIT 3: 3395
📌 Wait for H1–H4 momentum alignment before triggering a BUY entry for wave 5.
As expected, it will fall and form a head and shoulders bottom📰 News information:
1. ADP data, for reference of tomorrow's NFP data
2. Interest rate cuts and Powell's dovish comments
3. Geopolitical impact on the gold market
📈 Technical Analysis:
Yesterday we expected gold to retreat to the 3330-3320 area. Today, gold hit a low of around 3328 during the Asian session, which is in line with our judgment of the market trend. In the short term, gold may still fall. First, it may test the 3323 support line. If it falls back to this position during the day, you can try to go long. In the short term, focus on the 3315-3305 long-short dividing line below. If gold gets effective support below, it is expected to form a head and shoulders bottom pattern. The short-term decline will accumulate momentum for the future rise. Pay attention to the ADP data during the NY period
🎯 Trading Points:
BUY 3323-3315-3305
TP 3340-3350-3360-3375
In addition to investment, life also includes poetry, distant places, and Allen. Facing the market is actually facing yourself, correcting your shortcomings, confronting your mistakes, and strictly disciplining yourself. I hope my analysis can help you🌐.
FXOPEN:XAUUSD PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD
Bearish drop?XAU/USD is reacting off the resistance which is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 3,344.54
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 3,389.14
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 71% Fibonacci retracement.
Take prpofit: 3,294.89
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
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Gold Trade Plan 30/06/2025Dear Traders,
📉 Technical Analysis – XAU/USD (1H Timeframe)
Date: June 30, 2025
🇺🇸 English:
Price has broken below an ascending trendline and is now pulling back toward the resistance zone between $3,313 – $3,324.
This area serves as a confluence of resistance (previous support now turned resistance + horizontal resistance).
A bearish reaction from this zone could trigger a continuation to the downside.
The potential target for this move lies around the $3,210 – $3,225 support area, which has historically acted as a demand zone.
Alternative scenario: If price breaks and holds above $3,324, the bearish outlook would be invalidated.
Summary:
🔻 Resistance zone: $3,313 – $3,324
🎯 Bearish target: $3,210 – $3,225
❗ Entry condition: Bearish reaction and rejection from the resistance zone
Regards,
Alireza!
"Gold at Critical Zone – Parabolic Curve Support or Breakdown? 📈 Gold Parabolic Structure | Base 4 Breakout Setup | $4,000 Target
Sharing my analysis on Gold’s ongoing parabolic trend, which has followed a textbook progression of Base 1 → Base 4 since mid-2022. The price has respected a structural curved trendline, and we are currently in Base 4 consolidation — often the final pause before a blow-off rally.
Current Setup:
Gold is consolidating between $3,200 – $3,400, forming Base 4.
There is weekly bearish divergence, indicating momentum loss, but this is normal in late-stage parabolas.
I expect a retest of the $3,200 zone, near the parabolic curve support, possibly with a fakeout wick below — a common shakeout before the final rally.
Seasonality suggests the first week of July is typically bearish, which aligns with this potential retest.
Trade Plan (If Setup Confirms):
Watch for a strong bullish reversal candle near $3,200 (parabolic curve support).
Entry above the high of that bullish candle.
Stop loss just below the candle’s low.
Target: $4,000+, which aligns with typical blow-off potential (+20–25% from Base 4 breakout).
If Gold breaks and holds above $3,400, it could begin the vertical phase of the move.
Parabolic Move Concept Recap:
Base 1: Accumulation
Base 2: Confirmation
Base 3: Acceleration
Base 4: Final pause before blow-off
After Base 4, price often rallies sharply before forming a major top.
This is a high-reward but high-risk phase. Manage risk and don’t chase late entries once the move begins.
Would love to hear your thoughts and variations on this setup.
#Gold #XAUUSD #ParabolicTrend #TechnicalAnalysis #BlowOffTop #Base4
XAUUSD maintaining the falling pattern H4 Timeframe Analysis
Gold is currently holding the falling wedge pattern on H1 & H4 and Market has to lift up at range of 3380-3285.
What's possible scanarios we have?
As we have seen h4 candle closes above 3280-3285 then keep buying and eyes at 3305 then 3320 milestone also I'm holding my buy positions.
On the otherhand if The H4 candle closes below 3280-3275 then buying will be limited and market will join the 3250 zone.i will sell accordingly .
Additional TIP:
Above 3280-3285 keep buy
Below 3275 keep sell
#XAUUSD
6.27 Risk aversion dissipates and gold prices adjust! The range As the Middle East war came to an end, the risk aversion sentiment in the global financial market subsided, the risk aversion funds dissipated, and the three major bullish markets of gold, crude oil, and silver all fell downward; at the same time, the US dollar index broke a new low !
Fundamentals:
1: The Middle East war has been temporarily paused, and both sides have entered the adjustment phase; however, irreconcilable contradictions may become the starting point of the next war at any time; although it has ended for now, we must not slack off. Once the two sides are on the verge of a war again, risk aversion will sweep the world again; this is not impossible;
This Middle East war came suddenly and ended suddenly; it was like a child's play washing the global financial market; therefore, the possibility of a resumption of war cannot be ruled out in the future;
At present, in the overall market:
1: In the short cycle, the gold price fluctuates downward, so in the short term, the short-term decline is seen, and the fluctuation is downward;
2: In terms of trend, the range is temporarily contracted, the BOLL of the daily K is contracted, the speed slows down, and the overall range is back to the range of fluctuations; there is no obvious long and short trend, and it returns to the range of fluctuations;
Today's technical trend chart:
1: In 4 hours, the stochastic indicator crosses downward, which is a main empty signal; in terms of form, it is temporarily under pressure from the central axis track of the 4-hour BOLL, and the empty trend continues downward, and the form tends to continue to oscillate downward; therefore, it is recommended to choose the high-altitude approach for 4 hours;
2: In the daily K, the stochastic indicator continues to cross downward, which is a empty signal; in terms of form, it is temporarily a broken Yin and Yang pattern, with no obvious trend; BOLL forms a contraction, the range of 3417-3277, the range is mainly in an oscillating trend, and the strong and weak dividing point is near 3347;
Comprehensive: The daily K is mainly in an oscillating trend, so it is recommended to deal with it according to the oscillating trend, choose to buy low and sell high; the reference pressure position is near 3347, the support position is near 3295 and 3278; the second pressure position is 3390-3400 pressure position; continue to choose the oscillating approach, and play a oscillating treatment of buying low and selling high;
Gold may need to retreat to around 3300 againYesterday, the gold rebound stopped at around 3358, and then began to retreat. After that, it even failed to stand above 3350 during the rebound process, which to a certain extent hit the confidence of the bulls;
At present, gold has retreated to the area near 3330 again. Although gold has fallen slowly, the center of gravity of gold is still shifting downward in the short term, and the trading volume of gold is gradually increasing when it is falling, so I think the short position may not be over, and the 3330 area may be broken at any time; and the support area that really deserves our attention is first the 3320-3315 area, followed by the 3300-3295 area;
From the current gold structure, I think gold may still test the area near 3300 again before rising. Only after gold retreats to the area near 3300, it is possible to build an A-B-C head and shoulders bottom structure at the technical level (as shown in the figure), which can also help gold build a complete and effective rising structure, so gold has the need to retreat to the area near 3300 to build a right shoulder structure.
Therefore, I think shorting gold is still the first choice for short-term trading at present; you can consider shorting gold in the 3335-3355 area, looking at the target area of 3320-3310-3300.
GOLD XAUUSD THE month of july 1 Key Economic Outlook ;
Central Bank Speeches
(1)The bank of England head (BOE) Gov Bailey might speak in context on BOE 4.25% rate cut ,uk inflation about 3.45% is still above limit and the goal is 2%.my focus will be on his rhetoric's ,if he sounds dovish or Hawkish tones, then GBP will react to the sentiment.
(2)Bank of japan (BOJ) Gov Ueda will center on rate held steady at 0.5% and core inflation remains above 2%,market will watch the sentiment because its likely he will address yield -curve control adjustments or hawkish signals , which will potentially boost JPY AND JP10Y
the head of united states Fed reserve Chair, sir! Powell will speak and it comes with red folder ,the last monetary policy meeting kept Fed funds rate at 4.25–4.50% ,Powell recently emphasized patience on rate cuts based on cautious wait and see approach
Key Messages Expected:
Tariff-driven inflation risks require vigilance.
Rate cuts unlikely until September unless inflation cools markedly.
"No urgency" to ease policy amid solid labor market.
US Economic Data Releases
Final Manufacturing PMI 52.0 52.0 Neutral if unchanged; USD positive if >52.0.
ISM Manufacturing PMI 48.8 48.5 Contractionary (<50); USD negative if <48.5.
JOLTS Job Openings 7.32M 7.39M USD negative if <7.32M (labor cooling).
ISM Manufacturing Prices 69.6 69.4 USD positive if >69.6 (inflationary pressure).
Construction Spending -0.2% -0.4% Limited impact unless significantly below forecast.
Market Implications
USD: Powell’s tone is critical. Hawkish remarks (delayed cuts) could lift DXY; dovish hints may weaken it. Data surprises (especially ISM/JOLTS) could amplify volatility.
GBP/JPY: Bailey/Ueda speeches may drive cross-pairs. BOJ hawkishness could weaken EUR/JPY carry trades.
Risk Assets: Weak ISM/JOLTS data may pressure equities (US30) and boost bonds (↓US10Y).
Summary of Key Risks
Powell Speech: Reiteration of "no imminent cuts" likely. Watch for tariff-inflation warnings.
ISM/JOLTS: Sustained manufacturing contraction or softer labor demand could fuel recession fears.
Carry Trades: JPY strength (Ueda) may pressure EUR/JPY/AUD if BOJ signals policy shift.
#gold #xauusd #gbp #jpy
Continue to short gold below 3300Continue to short gold below 3300
Gold prices fell to a four-week low, but rebounded slightly
Spot gold: Today's lowest hit $3247/oz (the lowest since May 29), and then rebounded to $3296/oz.
Risk aversion cooled, trade easing suppressed gold prices
US-China trade easing: China and the United States reached an agreement on rare earth exports, boosting the stock market (S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit new highs), weakening the safe-haven demand for gold.
G7 tax agreement: Reduce global policy uncertainty, further suppress gold prices.
Trump terminated trade negotiations with Canada and threatened to impose tariffs, which temporarily boosted risk aversion.
Expectations of a Fed rate cut have increased, but short-term hawkish remarks have brought pressure
The market expects a 92.5% probability of a rate cut in September (65-75 basis points for the whole year), but Powell said that the impact of tariffs needs to be waited and see, and the probability of a rate cut in July is only 20%.
Trump said he would appoint a Fed chair who is "willing to cut rates," adding to policy uncertainty.
Geopolitical risks remain
Iran situation: Trump's threat to "bomb Iran again" and abandon sanctions relief has temporarily supported gold prices.
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict continues, but the market has partially digested the risk.
Key technical support and resistance levels
Support:
$3,250 (
$3,200 (if broken, it may fall to $3,120)
Resistance:
$3,280-3,290 (4-hour chart head and shoulders neckline).
$3,306-3,322 (if broken, it may rebound further).
Downside risks:
Trade optimism (US-China trade war, G7 agreement) may continue to suppress safe-haven demand.
If non-farm payrolls are strong this week (released on Thursday), it may push up the dollar and further suppress gold prices.
Upside support:
Geopolitical risks (Iran, Russia-Ukraine conflict) may trigger safe-haven buying.
Fed rate cut expectations still provide long-term support for gold.
Key variables:
July 9 The deadline for US tariff negotiations is on July 15. If no consensus is reached, it may trigger risk aversion in the market.
Fed policy signal: If economic data is weak, expectations of rate cuts may drive gold prices back up.
Technical pattern:
If gold prices hold $3,250, it may rebound to $3,330-3,350.
If it falls below $3,250/3,200, it may fall to $3,120.
Short-term traders: Pay attention to the breakthrough of the $3245-3280 range. If it rebounds to around $3,300, you can consider shorting on rallies. If it falls below $3,245, it may accelerate downward.
Gold: Market analysis and strategy for June 27Gold technical analysis
Daily chart resistance level 3350, support level 3250
4-hour chart resistance level 3340, support level 3245
1-hour chart resistance level 3300, support level 3280
Technical indicators show that the 4-hour moving average system shows a dead cross arrangement, and the MACD indicator dead cross continues. The gold price has fallen below the lower track support of the Bollinger Band, and the Bollinger Channel is narrowing. The short-term price is in a low-level weak consolidation pattern.
The 1-hour chart price broke the previous low of 3295, but the price is oversold and may rebound in the short term. The short-term support level below is around 3280. If it falls below, continue to look at the 3271-3245 range; the important pressure level is around 3300!
If there is a short-term rebound before the NY market, wait until the rebound before continuing to sell! The current minimum is 3279. After the short-term stabilization, refer to the resistance of 3300/3310 to sell.
Sell: 3300near
Sell: 3310near
Gold Trading Strategy June 26✏️ D1 candle shows a recovery but not significantly. Gold is currently reacting at the key resistance zone of 3342.
The immediate support zone that the price is heading toward is 3326. This forms a breakout range between 3326 and 3342.
A bullish channel may form if there is a strong price reaction at 3326. Conversely, if 3326 is broken, it could confirm a continuation of the downtrend targeting 3302 during the European and US sessions today. The bearish target could even extend to 3278.
📈 Key Levels
Breakout Range: 3326 - 3342
Support: 3326 - 3314 - 3302 - 3278
Resistance: 3342 - 3363 - 3388
📊 Recommended Trade Setups
BUY: 3302–3300 | SL: 3297
SELL: 3363–3365 | SL: 3369
I have shorted gold as expected and held on patientlyEven under the influence of the ADP data, which is bullish for the gold market, gold has not effectively broken through 3350, and even showed signs of falling back after rising several times. The resistance above is becoming more and more obvious, which may further weaken the market's bullish sentiment and confidence, thereby strengthening the dominance of the bears.
Although gold has not effectively fallen yet, from the perspective of the gold structure, even if gold wants to rise, it still needs to be backtested and support confirmed before rising, and the current retracement is far from enough, so gold still has a need for structural retracement; and before the NFP market, gold rose slowly but was far from enough to break upward, and there was no volume support, so the illusion of gold rising may be to lure and capture more bulls;
Therefore, out of caution, I try to avoid chasing gold at high levels; and I believe that shorting gold is still the first choice for short-term trading at present. And I have executed short trades in the 3340-3350 area according to the trading plan, and held it patiently. I hope that gold can retreat to the 3320-3310-3300 area as expected.