XAUUSD Top-down analysis Hello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
XAUUSDG trade ideas
Gold Weekly Summary and Prediction 6/8/2025In my last week's post, I mentioned that gold would potentially form an inverse head and shoulder pattern. In deed, the structure has been formed after last week's closing above 3300. In daily we also noticed that the trendline structure has been broken. Currently price is retesting the trendline. If daily candle respects the trendline, we would see a strong pushing on the price towards another ATH.
For next week's trading plan, I will closely monitor the trendline and 3280-3300 support. As long as this support holds, I am bullish on gold.
Gold is rising, will there be a new intraday high?Yesterday, gold closed with an engulfing positive line, and the closing line stood above the 5-day and 10-day moving averages.
From the analysis of gold in 1 hour, the current price is still in a fluctuating upward channel. Based on this technical pattern feature, if the subsequent economic data is positive and pushes the gold price to further strengthen, it may form a trading opportunity for shorting at a staged high. Although the gold price showed a rapid upward trend after the data was released, there has been obvious resistance in the historical trading concentration range of 3400-3410. The current bullish momentum has no technical conditions to break through this position, and the technical correction after the price surge is in line with the price behavior logic.
The current price has reached a high of around 3398. After today's rise, there is not much room for upward movement; since the market is rising in a volatile manner this week, it is not suitable to chase the rise directly. Although the 4-hour Bollinger Band opening continues to diverge upward and the moving average is arranged in a bullish pattern, the upward momentum is slightly insufficient and may be under pressure to move downward near 3410. I suggest that all traders short at high levels.
Operation strategy:
Short around 3410, stop loss at 3420, profit range 3360-3355. If it breaks through 3355, it may hit the intraday low below 3340.
XAU/USD 09 June 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 23 April 2025
Price has now printed a bearish CHoCH according to my analysis yesterday.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,500.200.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively.
Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 22 May 2025.
In my analysis from 12 May 2025, I noted that price had yet to target the weak internal high, including on the H4 timeframe. This aligns with the ongoing corrective bearish pullback across higher timeframes, so a bearish internal Break of Structure (iBOS) was a likely outcome.
As anticipated, price targeted strong internal low, confirming a bearish iBOS.
Price has remained within the internal range for an extended period and has yet to target the weak internal low. A contributing factor could be the bullish nature of the H4 timeframe's internal range, which has reacted from a discounted level at 50% of the internal equilibrium (EQ).
Intraday Expectation:
Technically price to continue bullish, react at either premium of internal 50% EQ or M15 demand zone before targeting weak internal low priced at 3,120.765.
Alternative scenario:
Price can be seen to be reacting at discount of 50% EQ on H4 timeframe, therefore, it is a viable alternative that price could potentially print a bullish iBOS on M15 timeframe.
Note:
Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance and persistent geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment.
Additionally, President Trump’s recent tariff announcements are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws.
M15 Chart:
Gold on Monday depends on this wave of operationsBefore the non-agricultural data on Friday, gold maintained an overall oscillating pattern, opening at 3354, briefly rising to around 3375 and then falling under pressure, entering an overall oscillating downward mode. We also caught the rhythm of long orders many times and successfully exited the market with profits. Although the non-agricultural data was bearish, gold did not dive quickly, but rebounded to around 3363 after short-term fluctuations, and then fell under pressure again, and finally closed in an inverted head shape, with obvious technical bearish signals.
From the perspective of form, gold is expected to continue to rebound high and high next week. Focus on the support of this week's low point of 3296. Once it falls below, it is possible to further explore the 3270-3260 area. However, if this position remains stable and unbroken, the market still has room for rebound and repair.
From a specific technical perspective, the obstructed decline of the 3375 line on Friday is more critical, with the lowest intraday drop to 3307, and the bearish momentum is still strong. It is recommended to be prudent in operation and do not blindly chase orders.
🔸Operation ideas for gold next week:
1️⃣ If it rebounds to 3320-3325, you can try to arrange short orders. If it rebounds further to 3338-3345, it is recommended to cover short positions.
2️⃣ The first target is the 3295-3306 area. If it effectively falls below, continue to hold and look for a lower position.
3️⃣ The support below is focused on the 3295-3285 area, and the pressure above is still mainly 3335-3345. The market is mainly oscillating in the middle of the range. It is recommended to watch more and act less, and wait for key point signals before intervening.
If you are currently having trouble with gold operations, welcome to communicate with me. I will update the strategy as soon as possible according to the intraday market and try my best to make your investment less detours.
Gold Analysis for Monday 09th June 2025www.tradingview.com
Based on the chart, the Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar price closed at $3,310.05 on June 07,
2025. The next accurate level to watch when the market opens on June 09, 2025,
depends on the support and resistance zones. The immediate support is around
$3,301.63, where a reversal signal was noted. If this support holds, the next resistance
to monitor is around $3,362.98. However, it would likely
target the next lower support level, which appears to be around $3,294.80.
Learn What is TRAILING STOP LOSS | Risk Management Basics
In the today's article, we will discuss a trailing stop loss. I will explain to you its concept in simple words and share real market examples.
🛑Trailing stop loss is a risk management tool that allows to protect unrealized profits of an active trading position as long as the price moves in the desired direction.
Traditionally, traders trade with fixed stop loss and take profit. Following such an approach, one knows exactly the level where the trade will be closed in a profit and the level where it will be closed in a loss.
Take a look at a long trade on USDCAD above.
The trade has fixed TP Level - 1.354 and fixed SL Level - 1.341.
Once one of these levels is reached, the trade will be closed.
Even though the majority of the traders stick to fixed sl and tp, there is one important disadvantage of such an approach – substantial gains could be easily missed .
After the market reached TP in USDCAD trade, the price temporarily dropped, then a strong bullish rally initiated and the price went way above the Take Profit level. Potential gains with that long position could be much bigger.
Trailing stop solves that issue.
With a trailing stop loss, the trader usually opens the trade with Stop Loss and WITHOUT Take Profit.
Take a look at a long trade on USDCHF.
Trader expects growth, he opens a long position and sets stop loss – 0.8924, while take profit level is not determined.
With a trailing stop loss, the trader usually opens the trade with Stop Loss and WITHOUT Take Profit.
As the market starts growing, one decides not to close the trade in profit, but modify stop loss – trail it to the level above the entry.
As the market keeps rallying, one TRAILS a stop loss in the direction of the market, protecting the unrealized gains.
When the market finally starts falling, the price hits stop loss and a trader closes the trade in a substantial profit.
The main obstacle with the application of a trailing stop is to keep it at a distance from current price levels that is not too narrow nor too wide.
With a wide stop loss distance, substantial unrealized gains might be washed out with the market reversal.
Imagine you predicted a nice bullish rally on Bitcoin.
The market bounced nicely after you opened a long position.
Trailing stop loss too far from current price levels, all the gains could be easily wiped out.
While with a narrow trailing stop distance, one can be stop hunted before the move in the desired direction continues.
A trader opens a long trade on EURJPY and the price bounces perfectly as predicted.
One immediately trails the stop loss.
However, the distance between current prices was too narrow and the position was closed after a pullback.
And then market went much higher.
In conclusion, I want to note that fixed SL & TP approach is not bad , it is different and for some trading strategies it will be more appropriate. However, because of its limitations, occasionally big moves will be missed.
Try trailing stop by your own, combine it with your strategy and I hope that you will make a lot of money with that!
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Gold (XAU/USD) - 8H Time Frame Analysis - High Probability setup🔍 Bias: Strong Bullish Reversal from Demand (Wave 5 expected)
📌 Key Confluences:
Wave (4) retracement tapped into major demand zone and sell-side liquidity pocket.
Held support above the 200 EMA and dynamic cloud zone.
Volume spike near support shows accumulation by strong hands.
Wave (3) had strong momentum – wave (5) could extend to 4,000+ levels.
🎯 Trade Idea:
Buy Gold (XAU/USD) at 3,180 – 3,220
Stop Loss: Below 3,100 (invalidation of structure + trendline)
Take Profit: 3,950 – 4,050 (based on wave (5) projection)
⚠️ Risk Note: Wait for a bullish engulfing candle or volume confirmation above 3,250 if conservative.
This setup is a textbook bullish continuation off a major correction, supported by clean structure, liquidity sweep, and wave alignment — making it a prime high-probability buy for the next leg up.
The summit is just around the corner, just one final push away!Gold closed sideways at a high level yesterday, and closed positive again overnight. It opened back to 3379 and pulled up strongly, breaking through the 3400 mark and then increasing in volume. The recent low-multiple bullish ideas have been realized. Today, there is no doubt that it will continue to be bullish and long. The market has turned from the previous sweeping upward to a strong unilateral trend. The upper side will first look at the previous high pressure of 3435. Continued breakthrough will further open up the upper space, or it will hit 3500 or even a new high again. The lower support focuses on the top and bottom conversion position of 3395-3405, and then pay attention to the 1H cycle support near 3410. Intraday operations are still mainly based on falling back and long.
Operation suggestion: Go long when gold falls back to 3395-3345, and look at 3434 and 3450. If it is strong, continue to go long with the support of 3415-3410.
Gold rebound is still a short-selling opportunityFirst of all, let's take a look at why the market is still not reversing after a big rise, and there is a rapid rise and fall?
The data is bullish, and gold is rising rapidly, but we should pay attention to the sustainability of the rise, and secondly, the current trend direction. The overall trend of gold is still fluctuating downward recently, so even if the data is bullish, it is likely to just give an opportunity to "go high and short".
Although gold performed strongly after the data was released, it began to fall under pressure at the 3360 line, the trading concentration area of the last box shock, indicating that the bulls' volume is still not enough to break through the upper resistance. It is reasonable to rise and fall.
Since gold is currently in a market that is tempting to buy more, it means that the main trend is still bearish. The rebound is still dominated by short selling. The gold 1-hour cycle closed with a long upper shadow, indicating that the upward attack is weak, indicating that the area above 3350 is still a strong pressure area. This upward rush is just a short-term effort with the help of data benefits, which is a typical false breakthrough. Therefore, gold rebounded to the 3350-3360 area in the US market, and it is still dominated by high shorts.
This is the charm of the market - some people are always hesitant in the ups and downs, while others can always grasp the key turning points. The premise is to be able to see the trend clearly and follow the trend.
Don't be led by the market, but understand: Is the current fluctuation a trap or an opportunity?
If the direction is wrong, the effort will be in vain; if the direction is right, you will get twice the result with half the effort.
Don't make excuses for failure, just find ways to succeed. Have you found it?
All recent trading strategies and ideas have been realized, and the point predictions are accurate. If your current gold operation is not ideal, we hope to help you avoid detours in your investment. Welcome to communicate with us!
Gold remains volatile at high levelsGold hit a low of 3302 on Tuesday and then rebounded. Then it hit a high of 3348 in the US market and then retreated to 3315 before rising again. It is still fluctuating around 3340. It closed at a cross star pattern with a negative line yesterday. The trend of the day is more critical. Although the bulls tried to break through in the short term, they did not break through after all. The current key pressure above is maintained at 3345-50. We continue to pay attention to the gains and losses of 3345-50.
From the 4-hour analysis, the support below is around 3315-20. If we step back and rely on this position, we will continue to look at the continuation of the rebound. The resistance above is around 3345-50. The overall gold price remains unchanged in the main tone of high-altitude and low-multiple cycles. I will remind you of the specific operation strategy during the trading session, so please pay attention to it in time.
Gold operation strategy:
1. Buy when gold falls back to 3315-20, and add more when it falls back to 3295-3003, stop loss at 3285, target at 3345-3350, and continue to hold if it breaks;
[20250607] This Week - Gold-ie-fornia Glitters: Simply No EscapeGold’s Update
Gold-ie-fornia Glitters: Simply No Escape
🔥 The golden battlefield is set. Some will navigate with precision. Others will chase shadows. Institutions have laid their traps, and the prey never sees it coming. Will you?
The stage is set. The market is unfolding in precise, calculated sequences , leaving no room for hopium and assumptions —only for those who can read the reality beneath the illusions .
📌 Market Structure Breakdown – Chronology of Events (Anticipation-Based Perspective)
1️⃣ Bulls' Entrapment – Bulls trust golden illusions, believing their ground is secure—but it isn’t. Institutions lure them in, setting the perfect conditions for deep positioning and offloading .
2️⃣ Bears' First Break – Testing 3325-3316 – This level was previously a support but has only recently broken down . Before a full transition into bearish control , a retest is anticipated — response at this zone will determine the next move .
➤ Key Confluence Zone – 3305-3302:
3305 Dynamic True Value → Institutional equilibrium price level.
3302 Immediate VWAP of ATH Swing → Large player VWAP anchoring from All-Time High movement .
3️⃣ Berlin’s Wall Challenge – 3275-3285 – If bears successfully break below 3325-3316 , the next major challenge awaits at Berlin’s Wall . Bulls may attempt a last stand here, while institutions assess liquidity flow.
4️⃣ Wilderness Entry – Below 3242-3228 – Breaking below this zone suggests entry into the wilderness , but freedom here is deceptive . Institutional liquidity traps are expected to emerge , targeting bears' response.
5️⃣ Bear's Survival Phase – 3179-3202 – Institutional poachers are likely to engage here , harvesting liquidity with steel traps and spike-laden snares . Bears must respond strategically , anticipating resistance before advancing further.
📌 This synopsis sets the stage for the unfolding battle —where illusion meets reality, where survival depends not just on movement, but on strategy, patience, and foresight .
Now, let’s dive deeper into the story , breaking down each phase, uncovering where liquidity hides , and analyzing the critical decisions traders must make before the market forces their hand .
Bull’s Self-Inflicted Entrapment
Blind to the ripe conditions for institutional deep positioning and offloading , bulls trusted an illusion , charging forward without recognizing the trap. The recent high at 3403 was never a gateway to further gains —instead, it reversed sharply, plunging nearly 100 points to 3305 .
Had they kept an open mind , they might have read my previous analysis— mapped and marked with precision —instead of walking into this conundrum unprepared. Click--> Full read here
What’s Next? Bear’s Stage is Set.
The coming week belongs to the bears , but survival depends on more than instinct. Heightened senses will dictate their fate.
Breaking the Bull’s Stronghold & Berlin’s Wall
Before bears can roam free, they must first break through the perimeter of the Bull’s stronghold —the 3325-3316 zone .
This is the fortified defense line , the place where bulls still hold ground. A decisive push below this level would force them to retreat, exposing Berlin’s Wall (3275-3285) —the last major barrier before true liberation.
✔ If bears break through Berlin’s Wall , they step into the wilderness , but this isn’t a free passage—it’s a hidden battleground of institutional traps , set by the large-scale poachers hunting for bear liquidity.
📌 Actionable Strategies & How to Navigate the Coming Week
Having mapped out the sequence of market events , let's shift focus to execution — how traders can position effectively, anticipate moves, and avoid institutional liquidity traps .
Key Strategy Guidelines for Bears
✔ Identify Major Battle Zones
3325-3316 → A recent breakdown that requires a retest for confirmation.
3275-3285 (Berlin’s Wall) → The critical hurdle before true liberation .
3242-3228 → Bears may see an open path, but institutions lie in wait, setting traps .
✔ Watch Institutional Defense Mechanisms
VWAP 3277 → Key liquidity defense zone.
Sentiment Fib 3272-3264 → Large players may attempt reversal positioning.
Dynamic True Value 3267 → Hidden liquidity pool where bears must tread carefully.
✔ Strategic Positioning for Risk Management
Partial exits at key zones → Secure gains before potential reversals.
Re-entry confirmations → Wait for strong level acceptance before scaling further .
Keep flexibility → The market moves in phases—respond, but never force trades.
Final Words for the Coming Week:
Be the apex predator , not the reckless prey. Fight smart. Stay vigilant. Conserve energy for the strikes that matter . Gather your berries, honey, and fishes along the way— survival depends on it.
Not all who enter this cycle will escape . The reckless will chase mirages , while those who master the art of precision will find their way to the hibernation chamber.
Chart Snapshots for guide:
Fibonacci Levels:
Dynamic True Value – refer to the indicates level on chart:
M15
M45
2H
4H TF
Daily
Weekly
Liquidity Zone – map these levels:
3371-3378
3316-3325
3299-3307
3275-3285
3200-3120
VWAP – Price magnet or Institutional Favor zone – refer the yellow line:
Value of May’s recent low
Most recent April’s Low
ATH
Snapshot ALL