XAUUSDG trade ideas
GOLD Trade Plan – Breakout or Pullback?Price is consolidating below key resistance at 3,324.5 after a strong bullish move.
✅ Scenario 1: Breakout Buy
If price breaks and closes above 3,324.5, I will look for a continuation long toward the next resistance at 3,342 – 3,344.
✅ Scenario 2: Pullback Buy Opportunity
If price rejects 3,324.5 and pulls back to the 3,314 – 3,316 zone (EMA support), I’ll wait for bullish confirmation to enter.
❌ A breakdown below 3,304 will invalidate the current bullish structure.
Trend remains bullish. Focused on long setups only.
Safe-haven sentiment leads to gold price rise again
💡Message Strategy
Gold prices continued to climb, breaking through the $3,300 mark in the Asian session, continuing the upward trend of the past three weeks. The recent deterioration of the US fiscal situation has caused market concerns, and Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating last week became the fuse.
At the same time, the market's bets on further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025 have increased, causing the US dollar index to fall to a two-week low, providing continued buying momentum for gold.
📊Technical aspects
From the daily chart, the gold price has closed positive for three consecutive days and broke through the key resistance zone of $3250-3260, which was previously the 200-day moving average, and the technical side has formed an effective breakthrough.
The current price is stable above $3300, and the short-term bullish momentum is sufficient. If the current trend continues, it will be expected to challenge the $3365-3370 area, and further break through or point to the $3400 integer mark.
On the downside, the initial support level of gold price is at $3250. If it fails, it will test the previous breakthrough of $3250-3255. The second is the $3230-3235 area.
💰 Strategy Package
Long Position: 3250-3255
Short Position:3315-3320
The latest gold operation strategyFrom a technical perspective, gold has been strong recently. Spot gold closed at $3,289.54 per ounce on Tuesday, and further broke through $3,300 in early trading on Wednesday, reaching a high of $3,304.06, a new high in more than a week. In the short term, gold prices need to break through the key resistance level of $3,370 to open up further upside space; $3,150 has formed a solid support below. If there are new variables in the geopolitical situation or economic data, gold prices may even challenge the $3,400 mark. Based on the current trend, the trading idea on Wednesday is clear: wait for the price to fall back and continue to intervene in long orders around 3,300, and maintain a bullish strategy.
Gold is recommended to go long in the 3300-3305 area, stop loss at 3292, target at 3315-3330
Gold on miraculous recoveryTechnical analysis: Downtrend sequence on DX is what pushed Gold's value Lower as well aggressively while the Intra-day semi uptrend on Gold is what Buyers were expecting and planning ahead. #3,300.80 psychological mark is the next Technical Support on Daily chart and Naturally as long as it holds, the bias is upwards towards the #3,327.80 Resistance (and vice-versa if Support fractal is to be tested). If #3,300.80 is invalidated, Sellers will extend their momentum towards the #3,275.80 - #3,285.80 Symmetrical Support belt level (many similarities with April / June Low’s).
My position: If you took my #3,252.80 benchmark break-out to the upside call you are in excellent Profit by now. I have closed all my Buying orders and especially I am satisfied with Scalp Buying orders from #3,275.80 towards #3,282.80 - #85.80 multiple times. Keep in mind that as long as #3,300.80 benchmark holds, bias is to the upside with #3,327.80 Resistance in extension. Trade accordingly.
GOLD LONG LIVE TRADE AND BREAKDOWN 11K PROFITGold price awaits acceptance above $3,300 as buyers return
Gold price is extending its upswing into the third consecutive day in Asian trading on Wednesday. Buyers look to regain the $3,300 on a sustained basis amid persistent US Dollar weakness and heightened geopolitical tensions.
GOLD (XAUUSD) Setting Up for a Bullish Breakout | Demand ZoneGold has been consolidating within a clear range, but price action is now hinting at a possible explosive breakout. After a strong rejection from the 3,090–3,124 demand zone, bulls have regained control and are pushing toward the 3,287 resistance.
We’re seeing a classic accumulation pattern, with higher lows forming around a major volume node. This is also supported by the Supply and Demand Visible Range , highlighting intense historical interest in the current range.
Key Technical Levels:
Major Demand Zone: 3,090 – 3,124 (strong institutional interest)
Short-Term Support: 3,199
Breakout Resistance: 3,287 (multiple rejection wicks seen)
Target Zone / Supply Area: 3,410
Invalidation: Below 3,090 (if price closes beneath, bullish bias ends)
Trade Setup (1H Timeframe):
Entry Zone: 3,200–3,220
Target: 3,410
Stop Loss: Below 3,090
Risk-Reward Ratio: ~2.5R
Technical Confluences:
Strong demand zone marked by LuxAlgo’s Visible Range
Price bouncing off a key structure support
MACD and RSI on lower timeframes showing early bullish divergence (not visible here but recommended to confirm)
Low volatility squeeze = potential expansion move ahead
Macro Context:
Traders anticipating upcoming USD news (interest rate decisions or inflation data). If the dollar weakens, gold could surge.
Watch for US market session on May 21–23 for possible breakout volatility.
Strategy:
I’m personally waiting for a clean break and close above 3,287 with volume to confirm entry. If that happens, the path toward 3,410 opens up fast.
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What’s your take? Are you positioning long, or do you see a fakeout brewing? Drop your analysis below!
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#XAUUSD #Gold #Forex #TradingView #SwingTrade #LuxAlgo #SupplyDemand #Breakout #PriceAction #SmartMoney #VolumeProfile #RiskReward #MarketStructure #USD #TechnicalAnalysis
Gold price may fall to 3150 points todayGold price may fall to 3150 points today
Key technical points
Support level:
Short term: 3206-3210 US dollars (intraday low and psychological barrier).
Medium term: 3198-3200 US dollars (weekly trend line support).
Resistance level:
Above: 3245-3250 US dollars (high pressure area 4 hours ago).
Key breakthrough target: 3266 US dollars (upper track of daily Bollinger band).
Intraday short strategy: short at highs near 3245-3250
Target: 3220-3200 US dollars, stop loss set above 3260.
Intraday long strategy: stabilize in the 3200-3210 range, long at low prices
Target: 3245-3266 US dollars, stop loss set below 3190.
Macro strategy:
My view is based on a 4-hour cycle. Macro bearish gold prices to 3150. Try to short at high prices.
Fundamentals: The situation in the Middle East has escalated: Israel launched a large-scale ground offensive against Gaza, exacerbating the risk of regional conflict, while Trump's Middle East schedule has not clearly released a signal of easing, and the market is worried that the conflict may spread.
Russia-Ukraine negotiations are deadlocked: Russia-Ukraine negotiations failed to reach an agreement, Putin only sent a low-level delegation to attend the meeting, and Ukrainian President Zelensky expressed dissatisfaction with the progress of the negotiations. Geopolitical uncertainty supports the safe-haven properties of gold.
Moody's downgraded the US credit rating: The US sovereign credit rating was downgraded from "AAA" to "Aa1", triggering a surge in US bond yields (30-year yields exceeded 5%), and the US dollar credit premium was weakened, which indirectly benefited gold as an alternative asset.
Fed policy and economic data game
Interest rate cut expectations diverge: Although the weak US PPI data (down 0.5% month-on-month) and the slowdown in retail sales growth (0.1%) have strengthened expectations for interest rate cuts, Fed official Bostic stressed that more data is needed to support policy adjustments, and the probability of interest rate cuts this year is still low (the probability in June is 8.3%). The US dollar index rebounded to around 100.63, suppressing gold prices.
Stagflation risks loom: US GDP shrank by 0.3% month-on-month in the first quarter, but consumer spending remained resilient, and the contradiction between rising inflation expectations and slowing economic growth intensified, highlighting the anti-inflation properties of gold.
Trade policy and market sentiment
China-US tariff easing: Both sides partially canceled additional tariffs, and short-term risk appetite rebounded, but Trump plans to impose new tariffs on many countries in the next two weeks, and the market's concerns about repeated trade frictions remain.
Central bank demand for gold purchases weakened: Gold ETF holdings fell to the lowest level since March (SPDR holdings 918 tons), reflecting a cooling of short-term risk aversion, but long-term central bank gold purchases (more than 1,000 tons in 2024) and weaker US dollar credit still provide support.
Upward pullbackGold has been facing selling pressure all week, but may have found some bullish growth heading into the coming week. The commodity managed to find bullish pressure (potentially) from the 3154 zone, which was previously resistance, turning into support. This may lead to an upward move to the nearby resistance at 3250. If the upward pressure stabilises above 3250, price action may continue to grow. Conversely, if price action stabilises under the 3250 barrier, a bearish outlook may be favourable.
3202 Buy and see reboundGold, the price fell to 3120 on Thursday and then rebounded, and boosted by the market's risk aversion sentiment, it rose to 3252 overnight, and the trend continuity is poor; the daily chart recorded a real big sun, and it will maintain a wide range of fluctuations in the short term, waiting for the results of the Russian-Ukrainian negotiations;
First fell back, now reported 3207; short-term decline and rebound showed a signal of stopping the decline, and a rebound and consolidation are expected in the evening; short-term support 3202, strong support 3192-3186; short-term resistance 3214-3218, strong resistance 3224-3230, break to see 3252;
In terms of operation, it is recommended to try to buy in the short term;
Strategy 1: Buy near 3202, protect 3192, target 3242;
The Countdown Has Begun… Discover This Week’s Market OpportunitiWeekly Analysis Report: May 19 – 23, 2025
Prepared by: Economic Expert Mohammed Qais Abdulghani
Introduction
Amid escalating global economic challenges and growing geopolitical risks, the need for a comprehensive and scientific understanding of market dynamics becomes increasingly critical.
In this weekly report, we present a holistic analytical outlook covering the major currency pairs, global commodities, indices, and cryptocurrencies — with gold taking center stage. We also highlight several educational technical setups based on precise data.
1. Key Economic Events This Week
The markets await a series of crucial economic indicators that may directly influence price action, including:
• Monday: Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI)
• Tuesday: Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision, Canada CPI
• Wednesday: UK CPI and US Crude Oil Inventories
• Thursday: US Jobless Claims, PMI figures, Existing Home Sales
• Friday: Germany’s GDP and US New Home Sales
2. Technical Analysis – Major Currency Pairs
• US Dollar Index (DXY): Remains under pressure below 102, with further declines toward 99, 96, and 94 possible.
• EUR/USD: Maintains bullish momentum above 1.1100, aiming for 1.1400 and potentially 1.2000.
• GBP/USD: Needs to break 1.3400 to resume an uptrend; otherwise, a drop toward 1.3100 is possible.
• USD/JPY: Faces strong resistance at 148.00; selling pressure remains dominant below this level.
• USD/CHF: Trading below 0.8400 supports potential declines to 0.8500 and 0.8700.
• AUD/USD: Under pressure below 0.6500, with targets at 0.6300 and 0.6000.
• NZD/USD: Approaching key support at 0.5800; a break below may lead to 0.5600 and 0.5400.
• USD/CAD: May regain positive momentum if it breaks above 1.4000, with further potential toward 1.4200 and 1.4400.
• GBP/JPY: Lacks momentum below 194.00, suggesting further declines to 190.00 and 186.00.
• EUR/JPY: Trading below 163.00; continued pressure may drive it toward 160.00 and 157.00.
• EUR/GBP: Facing downward pressure below 0.8500; a break of 0.8350 could push it to 0.8200.
• USD/TRY: Holding firm above 39.00, maintaining bullish potential toward 39.5 and 40.0.
3. Cryptocurrencies
• Bitcoin (BTC): Still below the key resistance of $106,000. A breakout may trigger a rally to $112,500, while failure to break higher risks corrections to $97,500 and $84,000.
• Ethereum (ETH): Facing bearish pressure after failing to break $2,700, with potential downside targets at $2,200, $1,800, and $1,400.
• Ripple (XRP): Weak below $2.40, with a bearish path toward $2.00, $1.60, and possibly $1.20.
4. Gold & Metals
• Gold (XAUUSD): Trading within a key technical range. A breakout above $3,260 may resume the bullish trend toward $3,400, $3,500, and $3,600. Conversely, staying below $3,100 could trigger a deeper correction.
• Silver (XAGUSD): Holding firm above $32.00, which is a launchpad for $34.00 and $36.00. A drop below could send prices back to $30.50 and $29.00.
5. Energy Markets
• Crude Oil (USOIL): Testing major resistance around $62.00. A breakout could lead to $66.00 and $70.00. Failure to do so might cause a retreat to $58.00.
• Natural Gas: Key support at $3.20. A breakdown may accelerate losses toward $2.50 and $2.00.
6. Global Indices
• Dow Jones (US30): Holding bullish momentum above 41,500, targeting 44,000 and 46,000.
• S&P 500: Stable above 5,900; continued momentum may lift it toward 6,300.
• Nasdaq: Stable above 21,200, enhancing the probability of a move to 22,800.
• Russell 2000: Approaching resistance at 2,120; a break may lead to 2,250 and 2,300.
• FTSE 100 (UK): Trading positively above 8,450, with targets at 8,750 and 9,100.
• DAX (Germany): Stable above 23,000, with upside targets at 24,100 and 25,600.
• CAC 40 (France): Maintaining upward momentum above 7,800.
• Nikkei (Japan): Consolidating above 37,000, targeting 39,000 and 41,000.
7. Weekly Trade Opportunities (Educational Analysis)
EUR/USD – 4H Chart
• Trade Type: Buy
• Entry Price: 1.11600
• Target 1: 1.12500
• Target 2: 1.14000
• Stop Loss: 1.10900
• Technical Insight: Price is trending above the ascending support with a clear rebound at 1.11000, supporting further upside.
Gold (XAUUSD) – 4H Chart
• Trade Type: Buy
• Entry Price: 3200
• Target 1: 3260
• Target 2: 3400
• Stop Loss: 3100
• Technical Insight: Gold rebounded from strong support at 3100 within an ascending channel, supporting bullish momentum.
Crude Oil (USOIL) – 4H Chart
• Trade Type: Pending Buy
• Entry Price: 62.30
• Target 1: 66.00
• Target 2: 70.00
• Stop Loss: 60.00
• Technical Insight: Oil is testing horizontal resistance; a breakout may trigger a swift bullish wave.
Dow Jones (US30) – 4H Chart
• Trade Type: Buy
• Entry Price: 42435
• Target 1: 43500
• Target 2: 44000
• Stop Loss: 41500
• Technical Insight: The index remains in a bullish trend, trading above moving averages and reinforcing upward bias.
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) – 4H Chart
• Trade Type: Buy
• Entry Price: 104000
• Target 1: 106600
• Target 2: 112500
• Stop Loss: 100000
• Technical Insight: Bitcoin is holding above strong support at 103000, increasing the likelihood of upward continuation.
Conclusion
We invite all readers to engage with this report by sharing your thoughts, technical insights, and development suggestions in the comments section.
To enrich this professional dialogue, we pose this week’s interactive question:
Do you believe gold will break the $3,260 level this week? Or will the corrective scenario prevail?
Your participation adds value to the discussion and helps enhance the quality of content for all market enthusiasts.
Prepared by: Economic Expert Mohammed Qais Abdulghani
Gold Trading Strategy For Next Monday📊Gold fluctuated violently on Thursday and Friday this week, with the market showing a fluctuating pattern of sharp rises and falls for two consecutive days, and the difficulty of trading increased significantly. In particular, the strong rise on Thursday and the rapid give-up of gains on Friday caused both bulls and bears to suffer repeated torture in the short term. The rhythm of the current market has changed, showing the characteristics of "no continuation every other day and lack of entry opportunities during the trading session", and more cautious operations are required.
1. Market Review and Technical Structure Analysis
📊On Friday, gold continued to fall sharply after hitting Thursday's high of 3252, with the daily line closing with a large real negative line, a drop of nearly $100, and fell to 3152 to stabilize. This position is exactly the 0.786 retracement of the previous 3120-3250 increase, and the technical support effect is evident.
📊On the hourly chart, the continuous rise of positive lines on Thursday showed obvious bullish trend momentum, while on Friday, a continuous oscillation and decline pattern was formed, showing a typical V-shaped reversal-top-building and decline trend. At present, the price of gold has fallen to the vicinity of the lower track of the previous channel and has gained initial support in the area of 3152. There is a high probability that there will be a second bottoming process in the future, and it may even set a new low to form a "secondary low point" to test the strength of buying.
2. Analysis of key technical prices
🔴The upper resistance level: 3230-3250, which is the previous high pressure zone. If the short-term bulls cannot stand above this range, it will be difficult to reopen the upward space. The 3210-3212 line below it is an important short-term counter-pressure position. If the rebound is blocked here, it will continue to confirm that the shock pattern has not been broken.
🟢Support below: 3150-3120, of which: 3152 is the 0.786 retracement level, which is also the key support point in the previous period; 3140-3120 is the support range of the lower track of the channel. If it effectively falls below this area, it will open up further room for decline to 3080-3050.
3. Market trends and trading strategies next week
🟠Main idea: Treat it as range oscillation, mainly long on pullbacks, supplemented by short on rebounds.
🔶Short-term long order strategy:
🔰If the gold price falls back to the 3150-3140 area and stabilizes, you can consider entering long orders at a low level;
🔰Conservatives can wait for the gold price to confirm that it is above 3153 before entering the market;
🔰Stop loss is recommended to be set below 3142. This position is a key defensive position. If it is lost three times, it will no longer be a bottom-fishing.
🔷Short-term short order strategy:
🔰If the gold price rebounds to 3210-3212 or 3230-3250 and encounters resistance, you can try to short with a light position;
Note that short positions are only used as a means of game play at the top of the shock, and be careful of "forced short pull-up" during the rebound.
🔰The mid-term thinking remains unchanged: the mid-term long positions deployed in the 3120-3140 line in the early stage continue to be held, and the target is still the 3250-3280 line.
✅The current trend of gold shows a typical wide range of fluctuations, with the main rhythm being high selling and low buying between 3120-3250. The risk of chasing ups and downs in the day or in the short term is relatively high, and it is recommended to wait for the confirmation signal of returning to the key position. In terms of technical structure, pay attention to whether there is a "secondary low point confirmation". If the 3150-3140 area is effectively supported, it is still expected to rebound and test the high point; otherwise, it is necessary to guard against the risk of breaking down.
Gold (XAU/USD) – 1H Analysis
📈 Recap & Context
Yesterday, gold posted a strong bullish reaction from the Daily Bull OTE zone (~$3,080–$3,130), aligning with a long-term potential continuation setup.
However, in the early hours of today, we’ve seen a retracement right into the Bull OTE of yesterday’s impulsive move, giving us a potential higher low formation.
🔍 Current Key Zones
🟦 Bull OTE (1H) : Acted as support this morning after the rebound.
⬜️ Supply Zone @ $3,240–$3,260: Remains the main resistance area to break.
⬜️ FVG 4H + 1H: Acted as mid-retracement support and demand zone.
🧠 What to Monitor
✅ Bullish Scenario :
A clean re-entry above $3,225, ideally backed by volume, would strongly suggest the bullish continuation is in play, with targets back toward $3,300+.
⚠️ Bearish Scenario:
A strong rejection from the $3,225 supply could signal that yesterday’s bounce was just a reactionary move in a broader downtrend.
In that case, we might revisit deeper retracement zones from the yearly leg up — possibly around $3,080 or even $3,000–$2,960 again.
📌 Conclusion
Gold is at a mid-range inflection point.
Either it confirms strength by reclaiming the $3,240 zone with conviction,
or we risk seeing a deeper corrective wave before any trend resumption.
Hanzo : Gold15m: Breakout Zone Confirmed After Liquidity Trap🔥 GOLD – 15 Min Scalping Analysis (Bearish Setup)
Bias: Waiting For Break Out
Time Frame: 15 Min
Entry Type: Confirmed Entry After Break Out
Bullish After Break Out : 3238
Bearish After Break Out : 3229
🩸 Key Reasons for Entry:
☄️Price manipulated above previous high (liquidity grab trap).
☄️Strong rejection from key supply zone with SMC confluence.
☄️Bearish order block + break of market structure.
☄️Entry respects higher timeframe resistance level.
🔤 Fair value gap / imbalance completed.
🔻Setup aligned with institutional reversal window
GOLD forms a DOUBLE TOP. Support 3200. Trend reversalGOLD is forming support for the double top reversal pattern
A break of 3200 will confirm the market's intention to reverse the trend and go downwards.
Scenario: There is a lot of important news from the US and Great Britain ahead. If the general fundamental background remains and the dollar continues its bullish trend, then we will be close to a breakdown of 3200.
Thus, a break of 3200 and consolidation below the level will be a signal that we are ready to go down.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Bearish Setup Within Falling Parallel Channel📉 Technical Analysis: GOLD (XAU/USD) – Bearish Setup Within Falling Parallel Channel
Chart Observations:
GOLD is trading inside a well-defined falling parallel channel.
Price initially respected the lower boundary of the channel before rebounding.
It made a significant break above the median (middle) line and reached the upper channel resistance, then retraced and took support at the median line again.
Currently, price is once again testing the upper channel resistance.
🔍 Current Setup & Possibilities:
1. Bearish Scenario (More Likely)
GOLD is facing resistance near the upper trendline of the falling channel.
If this resistance holds, it is likely to retrace sharply, potentially forming an impulsive move downward.
Immediate downside target aligns with the lower channel support, around $2980.
2. Bullish Scenario (Less Likely)
A breakout above the upper trendline of the channel could trigger a trend reversal.
This breakout could lead to a move toward 3240+ levels in the short term, possibly higher if momentum sustains.
🔽 Conclusion:
GOLD is currently in a bearish structure unless it decisively breaks out of the falling channel.
As per current price action and repeated rejection from upper channel, probability favors a downside continuation toward $2980.
Traders should watch closely for price action confirmation around the upper boundary for potential short setups.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves risk, and you should consult your financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Learn Best Candlestick Pattern For Trend Trading Gold XAUUSD
This secret pattern will change the way you trade Gold XAUUSD.
If you study technical analysis in Gold trading, there is one unique candlestick pattern that you absolutely need to know.
In this article, you will learn the structure and the meaning of one of the most accurate candlesticks in Gold trading.
I will teach you how to recognize this pattern and how to trade it for maximum profits.
Let's start with some theory and let me show you how this candlestick pattern looks.
This candlestick pattern is called inside bar.
It is based on a combination of at least 3 candles.
The first candlestick in a sequence should be a strong bullish or bearish candle. The consequent candles should strictly close within its range.
If at least 2 candles close within the range of the first candle with its bodies, that will be a valid inside bar.
The first candle will always be called the mother's bar , while the following candles will be called the inside bars.
That's a perfect example of the inside bar pattern on Gold XAUUSD chart on a daily.
This pattern is based on 2 important elements that you should always pay close attention to.
The upper boundary of the range of the mother's bar will compose a significant resistance that will provide a safe place to sell.
While the lower boundary of the range of the mother's bar will be a strong support to buy Gold from.
Look how nicely Gold price respected the resistance of the range, dropped to its support and started to grow then.
Once you identified the inside bar, you can easily trade it within the range.
However, I strictly recommend waiting for a confirmation signal before you place a trade.
One of the proven confirmations is a price action signal on lower time frames.
In the example above, Gold formed a bullish chart pattern - double bottom after a test of a support and a bearish pattern - head and shoulders after a test of a resistance.
Remember that the market can not stay within the range of the inside bar candlestick pattern forever.
Bullish violation and a candle close above the range will be a strong signal to buy Gold.
While, a bearish breakout of its range will provide a strong bearish confirmation.
That's how a breakout of the underlined resistance triggered a strong rally on Gold.
Inside bar is the essential pattern both for the gold swing traders and day traders.
This pattern provides a lot of profitable trading opportunities, being very simple to recognize.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
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