GOLD (XAU/USD) Bearish Play Setting UpHello guys!
Gold is currently respecting a bearish descending channel, forming clean lower highs and lows. After tapping into the supply zone around 3,285–3,295, the price is showing signs of exhaustion.
Now, a potential rejection from this zone could trigger another leg down targeting the demand zone around 3,060–3,080.
🧠 What I see:
🔹 Bearish channel = trending lower
🔹 Clean retest of supply block
🔹 Price respecting midline resistance
🔹 Momentum favors sellers
🎯 Bearish Trade Idea (Not financial advice):
Entry zone: 3,240–3,260 (on confirmation candle)
TP1: 3,110
TP2: 3,072 (demand zone)
📐 Risk/Reward: 1:2+ potential
💡 Watch for confirmation candlesticks near the supply zone for safer entries.
XAUUSDG trade ideas
GOLD DAILY CHART ROUTE MAP Hey Everyone,
Please see the daily chart update. As shown, the Goldturn channel is still being respected by price action. After a failed breakout attempt above the channel alongside the EMA5, we saw a rejection back toward the channels half line, a level we've identified as a potential support zone.
This support held, resulting in a bounce that aligns with our strategy of buying dips. As long as price continues to hold above this level and the EMA5 remains supportive, we could see a gradual move back toward higher levels. However, if the midline is retested and fails, and the EMA5 crosses below the half line, this could signal a potential move toward the lower boundary of the channel.
This is the beauty of our Goldturn channels, drawn using weighted averages instead of pure price action. This unique approach helps us clearly identify fake-outs and real breakouts, cutting out much of the noise that usually confuses traders.
Moving forward, we’ll focus on smaller timeframes (1H and 4H) to buy dips off the weighted Goldturns, aiming for clean 30–40 pip moves. Ranging markets are perfect for this style, allowing us to capitalize on quick moves without getting caught in the chop of larger swings.
Thank you all again for your continued likes, comments, and follows, we truly appreciate your support!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
TEH KOG REPORT - UpdateEnd of day update from us here at KOG:
We managed to get the move down with a slight stretch, waited for the red boxes to confirm and then level after level after level and TPs galore! We've hit the level we wanted in yesterday's idea and as you can see, price still has that vavavoom in it so lets see if they attack that 3235 region and if we get a RIP
Support here is 3210 and below that 3195
As always, trade safe.
KOG
GOLD: The Bearish Wave Has Begun – What’s Next?GOLD: The Bearish Wave Has Begun – What’s Next?
GOLD has broken down from a bearish pattern, confirming a strong move lower.
The price has also fallen below the key 3200 support zone, which is an important psychological level where traders make key decisions.
If this breakout is real and not a false move (as seen before), GOLD could continue its bearish wave, potentially dropping toward 3100, as shown on the chart.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
THE KOG REPORTTHE KOG REPORT:
In last week’s KOG Report we said we would be looking for the price to attempt the higher resistance level shown on the chart which was slightly higher than the red box. We wanted this level to reject price and give us the move down into the level which was shown on the chart. As you can see this move worked from the open, respecting the red box active level instead and completing all the bias level bearish targets in one swoop after the break.
We then updated the KOG Report with the move we wanted in order to then long into immediate resistance to again test the short trade, which again worked while we suggested traders look for the lower red box levels to attempt the long trades.
There was slight stretch again downside, but those red boxes played their part giving us the move on confirmation for the longs towards the end of the week, ending the week on a high.
It was a difficult week to trade with aggressive movement across the markets, however, the levels are reacting well and although there is a stretch on price, we’re getting the movement we want.
So, what can we expect in the week ahead?
We have key level now on the daily also aligning with the EMA50 at 3162 on the daily chart, while that 4H shows us a possible reversal on the flip. For this reason we have given the immediate red box levels of 3225-30 resistance and 3190-85 support. We have also plotted the potential range of play for the early part of the week, where we feel price may stabilise until a further move.
We’re looking for two possible moves here, one in order to continue to short and then look for the longer trade lower down, or, a break of the red box and bias level into higher resistance upon which we’ll trade level to level and then look higher for a potential short again. The bias level for this week has a huge extension of the move so it will be tradeable both directions. We have applied filters to the algo which is under test so we’ll also want to see if that works in our favour.
So, for now, support below can give us the move into the 3225-30 region which is the level to watch for the break, if rejected there may be an opportunity to short but that short must break below the 3185 level to continue and complete the move downside into the 3150-55 and below that 3130 levels. That’s where we feel the opportunity to long for the swing may come from but please remember, it’s changed structure until we break and hold above the 3265 level. That will be this week’s key level.
KOG’s bias of the week:
Bearish below 3235 with targets below 3196, 3185, 3177, 3165 and 3155
Bullish on break of 3230 with targets above 3242, 3250, 3255 and 3262
RED BOXES:
Break above 3210 for 3118, 3220, 3225, 3230, 3235 and 3247 in extension of the move
Break below 3195 for 3187, 3179, 3165, 3155, 3150 and 3137 in extension of the move
Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
Hellena | GOLD (4H): LONG to resistance area of 3439.37.Colleagues, Last time, I suggested that the five-wave movement was not yet complete. It seems that this is indeed the case.
Wave "5" of the higher degree is unfolding, and I expect the price to reach the resistance area around 3439.37, which marks the top of wave "X".
Within the smaller five-wave structure, I believe wave "3" is currently in progress.
A correction toward the 3248.38 area is possible.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
GOLD → One step away from a bullish trend reversalFX:XAUUSD is emerging from the local corrective channel “flag.” Pre-breakdown consolidation relative to the base of the reversal pattern continues. All eyes are on 3200...
Gold is losing ground amid trade optimism and a strong dollar. The price is falling at the start of Wednesday as traders take profits after a rise from weekly lows. Weaker-than-expected US inflation has not justified expectations, but the Fed's refusal to cut rates soon is weighing on the metal. Optimism surrounding new trade agreements between the US and China, the UK, and other countries, as well as hopes for peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, are reducing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
Technically, the overall situation looks bearish. There is no deep pullback from support, which means pressure from sellers in the market. Consolidation is forming before an attempt to break through the 3200 level.
Resistance levels: 3243, 3257, 3269
Support levels: 3222, 3200
If the price continues to consolidate in the current local range and continues to attack support at 3222-3200, then in the short and medium term, we can expect the decline to continue. However, knowing the tricks of MM, the price may form a short squeeze relative to local resistance zones before falling further.
Best regards, R. Linda!
XAUUSD[GOLD]: Another Possible Swing Sell Happening! Swing MoveGold rejected twice as we had described in our last two analyses on Gold. We remain heavily bearish on Gold and expect a swift bearish move within the next week or following week. We are eyeing two targets. Please use this analysis accordingly and avoid overtrading. This is not a confirmation, and do not use the marked arrow as an entry or exit point. The marked red area drawn there represents a potential reversal zone from which price may reverse.
As always, this analysis does not guarantee that price will move as described in the chart. Please use your own knowledge and trading plan while trading Gold. Good luck and trade safely.
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THE KOG REPORT - UpdateEnd of day update from us here at KOG:
A very choppy day on gold today making it difficult to hold trades into the extreme levels. The range is smaller than usual and accumulation is in progress, so we will say please play defence on the markets.
We wanted lower to go higher, the red box broke upside, and if switched to the 1H TF, like us you would have got a decent trade into red box resistance for the RIP and short scalp. As you can see, price is now playing between the red boxes with intra-day support being way down at 3210 and resistance above at 3255. These are now the levels of play in our opinion and the market has played it in such a way that both are open targets! We'll wait lower to long or higher to short, here in the range, not interested.
KOG’s bias of the week:
Bearish below 3235 with targets below 3196, 3185, 3177, 3165 and 3155
Bullish on break of 3230 with targets above 3242✅, 3250, 3255 and 3262
RED BOXES:
Break above 3210 for 3118✅, 3220✅, 3225✅, 3230✅, 3235✅ and 3247✅ in extension of the move
Break below 3195 for 3187, 3179, 3165, 3155, 3150 and 3137 in extension of the move
As always, trade safe.
KOG
Gold at major targets; stall and retrace likelyThis is relatively simple post idea. We have two formation. One is a multi-decade pattern in blue and one is a muti year pattern in orange. Simple fib draws show both have reached full performance.
We can also see that the RSI is in the process of setting a lower high. This reenforces my bias that Gold will be having a very serious pause right now. Just how intense remains to be seen. But a retrace to retest the previous cup and handle support as resistance would be a very normal movement for support and resistance traders. that would be a ~40% pull back from here. Very painful for people looking for momentum.
Provisionally I am keeping this draw on the GoldSilver ratio. Whether this means Gold will fall faster than silver or gold and silver diverge remains to be seen.
It also doesn't help that the news cycle has picked up on the gold move way too late. Of course.
GOLD Correction Complete - Rally Toward $3,450 AheadOANDA:XAUUSD is trading within a well-defined ascending channel, signaling ongoing bullish momentum. The price has continued to respect the channel structure, printing higher highs and higher lows, a clear sign of an intact uptrend. The recent retracement represents a healthy correction, potentially setting the stage for another bullish leg.
Price is now approaching a key support zone, marked by the lower boundary of the channel and a previous demand area. If this zone holds, it may offer a strong re-entry opportunity for buyers. The projected upside target is $3,450, which aligns with both the midline of the ascending channel and a previous resistance level.
As long as the price remains above the support zone and the ascending trendline, the bullish scenario remains valid. A break below this level, however, could invalidate the setup and increase the likelihood of a deeper retracement.
Always confirm your setups and trade with a proper risk management.
Best of luck!
GOLD (XAUUSD): 2 Strong Bullish Patterns
As I warned you earlier, Gold is resuming a growth.
After completing a bullish accumulation, the price
is currently breaking both a neckline of an ascending triangle
and an inverted head and shoulders formation on a 4H.
I think that the price will rise more and reach 3320 resistance soon.
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I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Gold Stuck Between 3250 and 3200 – Watch the Breakout!After another week filled with violent price swings, Gold started this week on a much calmer note. Yesterday, after filling the Asia open gap, price pushed up to test the 3250 resistance, only to reverse and fall back toward the 3210 support zone.
🔺 A triangle is forming… but which way will it break?
Since last Thursday, price action has been forming an ascending triangle — a pattern that typically favors upside breakouts.
But for this to play out, we need a clean break above 3250. If that happens, we could see a fresh 1,000 pips move up in the short term.
📉 What if 3200 fails again?
A break back below 3200 would cancel the bullish structure and likely send price toward the 3160 support, or even further down to the 3100 zone.
📊 Trading Plan:
For now, I remain on the sidelines, waiting for a clear breakout in either direction. No need to rush — the breakout should bring strong momentum either way.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
XAUUSD TRADE Entry from Support with Targets at 3,347 and 3,503Entry Point: 3,219.45
Stop Loss: 3,171.35
Target Point One: 3,347.49
EA Target Point (Final Target): 3,503.87
Trade Plan:
Risk Zone: Between entry (3,219.45) and stop loss (3,171.35). The trader risks roughly 48.1 points.
Reward Zone: From entry to:
Target Point One: ~128 points.
Final Target (EA Target): ~284.4 points.
Risk-Reward Ratios:
To Target Point One: ~2.66:1
To EA Target Point: ~5.9:1
Indicators and Signals:
Price appears to be bouncing off a support zone near 3,212–3,219, indicating a potential reversal.
200 EMA (blue) and 50 EMA (red) are shown; price is slightly above the 200 EMA, suggesting long-term support.
There is a downtrend before the bounce, so this might be a counter-trend trade or the start of a new trend.
Summary:
This setup is a classic bounce from a demand/support zone with a clear upside potential. The risk is tightly managed, and the reward is significantly higher, aligning with favorable risk-reward principles. However, the position is speculative and relies on bullish follow-through from the support level. Watch price behavior near the 3,288 and 3,347 resistance zones to assess momentum.
XAU/USD) bearish trand analysis Read The ChaptianSMC Trading point update
Technical analysis of XAU/USD (Gold vs. USD) on the 4-hour timeframe suggests a bearish outlook. Here's a breakdown of the key elements:
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Key Levels:
1. Resistance Zone (Upper Yellow Block):
Around 3,450–3,500.
Price was previously rejected from this level, forming a double-top like structure.
2. Rejection Point (Mid-Level Zone):
Near 3,300–3,310.
Price repeatedly failed to break and hold above this zone, indicating strong selling pressure.
3. Support Zone / Demand Block (Lower Yellow Block):
Around 3,100–3,125.
This is the target area, labeled clearly as TARGET POINT: 3,116.501.
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Indicators:
200 EMA:
Currently above the price, suggesting downward momentum.
Acting as a dynamic resistance.
RSI (14):
Around 39, slightly above oversold territory (30).
Indicates bearish pressure but not yet oversold — room for further downside.
The chart suggests that if price breaks below the mid-level support, we could expect a move towards the support block around 3,116.
The bearish wave projection drawn in the chart confirms the trader’s expectation of a drop.
The setup appears to be a break-and-retest of the mid-zone, followed by continuation downward.
Mr SMC Trading point
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Trading Idea Summary:
Bias: Bearish
Entry Trigger: Break below ~3,225–3,230 with confirmation
Target: ~3,116
Invalidation/Stop: Close above 3,300–3,310 (rejection zone)
Pales support boost 🚀 analysis follow)
THE KOG REPORT - UpdateEnd of day update from us here at KOG:
A decent day on the markets after the frustrating range being played early week. We said we expected the play to be between the 3210 and 3255 region with a break either side deciding the short term direction. We waited lower for the 3203-5 region early session, managed to get 3204 and then long on the red boxes which guided the way as well as our trusted algo Excalibur. Excalibur completed 4 Gold targets in a day with another insane pip capture. Well done team.
So now we have an open level above 3290-95 with our indicator starting to show the stretch upside. Rather than attempt long up here, we'll look higher for a potential RIP based on a clean set up, if we get that support is on the flip at 3255-60 which is the retracement level.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
XAU/USD..15M CHART PATTERN..gold trade signal:
Buy at: 3172
Target (TP): 3240
Potential gain: 3240 - 3172 = 68 points
To analyze or act on this, here’s how you could interpret it:
⚙️ Trade Breakdown:
Entry Price: 3172
Target Price: 3240
Stop-Loss (not provided): You might want to define one (e.g., 3140 or 3120) to manage risk.
Risk/Reward Ratio: Needs a stop-loss to calculate properly.
📊 Strategy Considerations:
Is this based on technical analysis? (e.g., breakout, support/resistance?)
Is this for intraday, swing, or positional trading?
Check for upcoming economic events (like U.S. CPI, Fed meetings, etc.) that may cause gold volatility.
Would you like a chart analysis or current market outlook to support this trade? Or do you want help setting a stop-loss or risk management strategy?
Key Rejection Zone Approaching – Bearish Setup in PlayChart Summary:
Asset: Unspecified (USD-based)
Timeframe: Short-term (likely 1H or 4H)
Indicators:
EMA 50 (red): 3,245.772
EMA 200 (blue): 3,223.635
Key Zones:
Resistance Zone (Red box): ~3,310–3,360
Target/Support Zone (Red box): ~3,110–3,160
Mid Support Zone (Blue box): ~3,200–3,230
Trendline: Downward sloping resistance connecting major highs
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Technical Breakdown:
Trend Analysis:
Primary Trend: Bearish ⬇️
Confirmed by the downtrend line (black) which has been respected multiple times (3 clear touches).
Current Price: 3,290.090
Price is approaching a key confluence zone: resistance area + trendline.
This area has previously acted as strong supply.
Moving Averages:
EMA 50 > EMA 200: Minor bullish signal (Golden Cross), but price action is still below major resistance.
However, this cross may be a false signal if price gets rejected here.
---
Price Action:
Current Move: Strong bullish push toward resistance after rebounding from the target zone ✅
The resistance zone and trendline are likely to act as a rejection point unless broken decisively.
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Bearish Scenario (High Probability):
If price fails to break above the resistance zone:
Expect a rejection and move back toward:
Blue mid-support: ~3,220
Target zone: ~3,130 (major demand area)
Confirmation: Bearish candlestick pattern or strong wick rejections near resistance.
🔵 Entry Idea: Short near 3,310–3,350
🎯 Target: 3,130 zone
✋ Stop-Loss: Above 3,360 (above trendline + resistance)
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Bullish Scenario (Less Likely):
If price breaks above the resistance zone with strong volume:
Could signal trend reversal
Next target levels: ~3,400+
---
Conclusion:
Bias: Bearish near resistance zone
Key Level to Watch: 3,310–3,360 (critical for direction)
Trading Approach: Wait for confirmation, don't preemptively short without rejection signals.
Gold Intraday Trading Plan 5/16/2025As mentioned yesterday, since my weekly target of 3165 was met, I would be cautious in placing buying orders. Indeed, after reaching 3120, gold quickly turned and closed above 3200. It is now quite bullish. I will place only buying orders today.
I am looking to buy from 3200-3210 level or the breaking of 3270. Targeting 3340.
XAU/USD) bullish trend analysis Read The ChaptianSMC trading point update
Technical analysis of XAU/USD (Gold Spot price against USD) on a 1-hour timeframe, featuring a Smart Money Concept (SMC) approach. Here's a breakdown of the key ideas presented:
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1. Downtrend & Trendline Break
The chart initially shows a downtrend with two red arrows marking lower highs.
A trendline is broken, indicating a potential shift in market structure.
CHOCH (Change of Character) is labeled — a key SMC concept signaling a reversal from bearish to bullish structure.
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2. Orderblock & FVG (Fair Value Gap)
A bullish orderblock is highlighted, indicating an area where institutional buying may have occurred.
A Fair Value Gap (FVG) is shown, which often acts as a magnet for price to fill inefficiencies before continuing in the intended direction.
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3. Resistance & Target Zones
A resistance level is marked near 3248–3250, which price may revisit and possibly break.
Two target points are identified:
First target: ~3344
Final target: ~3433
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4. EMA 200
The EMA 200 is acting as dynamic resistance; a break above it adds confluence to the bullish bias.
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5. Expected Move
The analysis anticipates:
1. A pullback into the FVG or orderblock.
2. A bullish continuation after mitigating those zones.
3. Price aiming for the resistance and eventually the upper targets.
Mr SMC Trading point
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Conclusion
This is a bullish outlook based on a structural break (CHOCH), institutional demand (orderblock), and gap-filling logic (FVG). The price is expected to pull back slightly and then rally toward the 3344 and 3433 levels if it holds the orderblock zone.
Pales support boost 🚀 analysis follow)