GOLD ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone,
Great finish to the week with our chart idea playing out, as analysed.
After completing our Bullish targets 3282, 3343 and 3404 yesterday; we stated that no further cross and lock above 3404 confirmed the rejection and that price will find support at lower Goldturns for the bounces.
- This played out perfectly inline with our plans to buy dips. Price found support at 3282 Goldturn and gave the weighted bounce just like we analysed.
BULLISH TARGET
3282 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3282 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3343 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3343 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3404 - DONE
We will now come back Sunday with our updated Multi time-frame analysis, Gold route map and trading plans for the week ahead.
Have a smashing weekend!! And once again, thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
XAUUSDG trade ideas
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [May 12 - May 16]This week, the international OANDA:XAUUSD increased from 3,210 USD/oz to 3,434 USD/oz, but immediately after that, the gold price dropped sharply to 3,274 USD/oz and closed this week at 3,325 USD/oz.
The reason why the gold price was sold off at the end of the week was because the FED said it would not rush to cut interest rates, because inflation is potentially at risk of increasing due to the impact of tariffs from the Trump administration, while the US economy, especially the labor market, is also at risk of decline. This risks pushing the US economy into a state of stagflation.
In addition, after the US and UK reached a trade agreement, the US side said that there will be more trade agreements with major economies in the near future. Notably, this weekend, the US and China also entered the first round of trade negotiations under President Trump in his second term in Switzerland. This has made many investors concerned that the cooling of the trade war will reduce the role of gold as a safe haven.
Factors affecting gold prices next week:
Federal Reserve (Fed) policy: The Fed currently keeps interest rates at 4.25% - 4.5%, and the market is waiting for new economic data (such as May CPI and employment report). If inflation continues to decline or there are signs that the Fed will cut interest rates in the near future, gold prices may be strongly supported. On the contrary, if the Fed maintains a "hawkish" stance (keeping interest rates high), gold prices may be under downward pressure.
US-China trade negotiations: Optimism about the possibility of a trade agreement between the US and China (expected to be negotiated in Switzerland) is reducing the demand for safe haven gold. If there is positive news (forecast: tax reduction from 145% to 80%), gold prices may adjust down. On the contrary, if negotiations fail or tensions escalate, gold will increase sharply.
Global instability: Geopolitical risks (such as Middle East conflicts, Russia-Ukraine tensions, India-Pakistan tensions) are still the driving force supporting gold prices. If there are unexpected developments, gold demand will increase.
📌Technically, gold prices next week are likely to fluctuate within the range of 3,200 - 3,400 USD/ounce, with the base scenario being sideways or slightly increasing. If gold breaks the trendline and surpasses the resistance level of 3435, the next level is that gold can conquer the old peak or create a new high. Meanwhile, if the support level of 3200 is broken, gold prices are at risk of falling deeply below the threshold of 3,100 USD/oz. However, factors such as US economic data, Fed policy, and developments in US-China negotiations will be the key to determining the trend. Investors need to closely monitor these events and apply flexible trading strategies.
Notable technical levels are listed below.
Support: 3,300 – 3,292 – 3,267USD
Resistance: 3,351 – 3,371USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3402 - 3400⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3406
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3215 - 3217⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3211
Gold outlook: inflation, tariffs, and the key level to watchI'm long-term bullish on gold. With Trump pushing for 10% tariffs across the board, inflation risks are rising. Add tax cuts and already low unemployment, and you have a recipe for more upside. But why is there a risk that the price drops first, before heading higher? Watch the video to learn.
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Hanzo / Gold 15m Path ( Confirmed Breakout Zones )🆚 Gold
The Path of Precision – Hanzo’s Market Strike
🔥 Key Levels & Breakout Strategy – 15M TF
☄️ Bearish Setup After Break Out – 3312 Zone
Price must break liquidity with high volume to confirm the move.
☄️ Bullish Setup After Break Out – 3345 Zone
Price must break liquidity with high volume to confirm the move.
🩸 15M Time Frame Confluence
————
CHoCH & Liquidity Grab @ 3340
Key Level / Equal lows Formation - 3300
Strong Rejection from 3330 – The Ultimate Pivot
Strong Rejection from 3290 – The Ultimate Pivot
🔥 1H Time Frame Confirmation
Twin Wicks @ 3313 – Liquidity Engineered
Twin Wicks @ 3330 – Liquidity Engineered
Gold Technical Analysis.This chart is for CFDs on Gold (XAUUSD) on a 2-hour timeframe and presents a trading plan by the XAUUSD_EXPERT_Team. Here's a breakdown of the information provided:
Current Price: 3,320.910 USD per ounce
Target Price: Around 3,354.556 USD (highlighted as "Target")
Stop Loss Level: Around 3,294.776 USD
Entry Zone: The highlighted black box appears to be the buy zone, ranging approximately between 3,311.296 and 3,320.910 USD
Risk/Reward Setup: The green box shows the profit target zone, and the red box shows the stop loss zone
Trade Direction: Bullish (expectation of price rising after potential short-term pullback)
The chart suggests a long (buy) position with a favorable risk/reward ratio, anticipating a continuation of the uptrend after a possible retracement to the support zone.
Let me know if you want help calculating the exact risk/reward ratio or converting this to a trading plan.
GOLD/USD – 1H Technical Outlook
1️⃣ Market Structure
Following a clean bullish reversal from the Bull OTE zone, Gold delivered a strong impulse toward the upper resistance levels.
However, the current rejection occurred exactly inside a market gap located within a supply zone, a key sign of low-liquidity rejection.
2️⃣ Key Zone
Rejection inside a gap
Located just under a key supply zone
Price is still holding above structural support, but short-term exhaustion is visible
3️⃣ Short-Term Expectation
🔽 A pullback is now likely :
First target : 50% retracement of the bullish leg
Second target: Bull OTE area (around 3,240–3,255 $)
This would offer a clean reaccumulation zone before any continuation.
4️⃣ Momentum Clue
Price action remains bullish overall, but a healthy correction is required to sustain the next move.
🎯 Conclusion
Gold may be in for a short consolidation/ pullback before aiming higher.
👉 A return into the 50%-OTE zone would be a strong bullish re-entry setup if supported by volume.
How to grasp the bottoming out and rebound of gold prices?Gold rebounded from 3229 today and then retreated from 3232. It rebounded from 3204. Gold fluctuated upward in the European session. So far, it has fluctuated from 3237. Our short position was successfully closed this morning. At present, we will focus on the short-term suppression at 3240-45 and the important suppression at 3253-60. If the rebound does not break, we will go short.
From the 4-hour line analysis, the support below continues to focus on 3170-75, with strong support at 3150. The short-term pressure above is at 3240-45, and the key pressure is around 3253-60. The overall support range is to maintain the main tone of high-altitude and low-multiple cycles. For the middle position, watch more and do less, and be cautious in chasing orders.
Gold operation strategy:
1. If gold rebounds to 3240-45, short it; if it rebounds to 3253-60, cover short position; stop loss 3266; target 3205-10; if it breaks, continue to hold;
2. If gold falls back to 3170-75, long it will be lightly long; if it falls back to 3150-55, cover long position; stop loss 3144; target 3226-3230; if it breaks, continue to hold
Gold Strategy Today
Last night, gold strongly broke through 3,250 and then rapidly surged. The main reason was the impact of geopolitics: Israel is preparing to strike Iranian nuclear facilities, causing tensions between the two sides; the Russia-Ukraine conflict remains deadlocked, and the EU and the UK have announced a new round of sanctions against Russia. All these have triggered a surge in market risk aversion. Additionally, expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have further increased, and these fundamental factors have led to a further rise in gold prices!
For our intraday operations, the direction is already clear, so we should try to follow the broader trend during trading, focusing on buying on pullbacks. The key support level to watch intraday is the 3,265 watershed. As long as the price remains above 3,265, we maintain a bullish bias. For short-term operations, pay attention to the low of the morning retracement near 3,300. If gold pulls back again to approach 3,300-3,310, we can directly go long!
XAUUSD BUY@3300-3310
SL:3290
TP1:3340
TP2:3360
GOLD BUY NOW STRONG BULLISH NEXT MOVE1. Double Top Resistance
The chart identifies a "double top" near the current level. This is typically a strong bearish reversal pattern.
If price fails to convincingly break above this level (around 3,310–3,320), it may indicate a loss of bullish momentum.
2. Overextended Move
Recent candles show a steep rally (notably the 3.03 move), which may be overbought on lower timeframes (e.g., RSI likely >70).
Parabolic moves are often followed by sharp corrections.
3. Support Cluster Vulnerability
The red shaded support zones could act as liquidity traps. If price dips into those zones and fails to bounce, it may trigger sell-offs.
Especially the zone just below the current price — if broken — could accelerate downside toward the "Strong Support Area" around 3,270.
4. False Breakout Risk
Gold Breaks 3300 – Rally or Pullback Ahead?Gold has just broken through the critical support level at 3300 USD/oz and is currently trading around 3307. This movement aligns with previous forecasts, as gold continues to maintain a short-term bullish cycle. The next target investors are eyeing is the 3350 zone — a new resistance level that could define the upcoming trend.
📈 Technical Analysis:
• EMA 09: Candles are consistently closing above the EMA 09 line, indicating that bullish momentum remains dominant.
• Momentum remains strong, though profit-taking pressure could emerge as prices approach the 3310–3320 range.
• Short-term support: 3290 – a potential rebound area in case of a pullback.
• Major resistance ahead: 3350 – a key level that must be breached to confirm continued upside momentum.
💡 Short-Term Trade Scenarios:
🔻 SELL XAU/USD
Entry Zone: 3348 – 3350
Take Profit (TP): 3328 – 3330
Stop Loss (SL): 3360
🔺 BUY XAU/USD
Entry Zone: 3305 – 3307
Take Profit (TP): 3325 – 3327
Stop Loss (SL): 3295
Gold (XAU/USD) Long Setup📈 Gold (XAU/USD) Long Setup – Volume Surge & Momentum Breakout
Gold has triggered a clean bullish breakout above previous volume resistance, signaling strong upside continuation. Price rebounded from the value area and is now holding above the key 3,313 structure with a Risk/Reward of 4.98, targeting the 3,444 zone.
🔹 Entry: 3,313.73
🎯 Target: 3,444.24
🛑 Stop Loss: 3,287.46
📊 R/R Ratio: 4.98
📆 Holding Period: 5 Days
📌 Technical Highlights:
Volume Profile: Price broke above a high-volume resistance shelf with strong commitment.
Momentum (SQZMOM): Flipped green with rising bars – confirming bullish momentum.
Structure: Breakout retest zone now acting as support, forming higher lows.
Target Zone: 3,444 aligns with prior supply and trend extension.
Gold breaks upward, space opens up
📌 Driving events
Internationally, US media reported that US intelligence agencies found that Israel was preparing to attack Iran's nuclear facilities, and gold and crude oil both soared in the short term.
Recently, the Iran nuclear talks and the Russia-Ukraine talks were carried out simultaneously, and the market risk aversion sentiment fluctuated greatly
📊Comment analysis
While the medium and long-term outlook continues to be bullish on gold's performance this year, short-term operations are mainly based on news. Pay attention to light positions and maintain flexibility in short-term operations.
💰Strategy Package
🔥Buy Gold Zone: 3310-3315 SL 3307 Scalping
TP1: $3318
TP2: $3325
TP3: $3330
🔥Sell Gold Zone: 3354-3356 SL 3361
TP1: $3345
TP2: $3332
TP3: $3320
🔥Buy Gold Zone: $3252 - $3250 SL $3245
TP1: $3260
TP2: $3270
TP3: $3280
⭐️ Note: Labaron hopes that traders can properly manage their funds
- Choose the number of lots that matches your funds
- Profit is 4-7% of the fund account
- Stop loss is 1-3% of the fund account
Ready to Rob the Gold Market? XAU/USD Heist Plan Revealed!🌟 Gold Heist Masterplan: XAU/USD Profit Raid 🚀💰
Thieves and profit hunters! 🤑 Ready to raid the XAU/USD gold market? This *Thief Trading Style* fuses sharp technicals with key fundamentals for a slick long-entry plan targeting the high-stakes Red Zone. Let’s grab those gains! 📈🎯
**Entry Plan 📈**
Strike when the breakout hits! Watch for a Moving Average crossover at 3380.00 to jump in for bullish profits. 🔔
- Set *buy stop orders* above the MA for breakout trades.
- Prefer pullbacks? Place *buy limit orders* at recent swing low/high on 15M or 30M timeframes.
📌 *Tip*: Set a chart alert to catch the breakout candle in action! 🚨
**Stop Loss 🛑**
Guard your stash with a *Thief SL* at the recent 4H swing low/high (3200.00).
Tweak your SL based on risk tolerance, lot size, and open orders. Stay alert! 🔍
**Profit Target 🎯**
Aim high for 3680.00, or lock in gains early to avoid overplaying your hand. Stay disciplined! 💪
**Scalper’s Edge 👀**
Scalpers, stick to quick long-side trades. Big players can dive in now; smaller traders, ride the swing with a trailing SL to secure profits. 💰
**Market Pulse 💵**
XAU/USD is charging bullish, driven by macro trends, COT data, sentiment, quantitative signals, and intermarket flows. Keep your eyes on fast-moving fundamentals! 🌎📊
**Latest Market Snapshot (UTC+1, May 21, 2025)**
- *Forex (XAU/USD)*: Hovering around 3155.00, testing key 200-day SMA support after a 2%+ sell-off.
- *COT Report (May 16, 2025)*: Non-commercial net long positions up by 5,200 contracts, reflecting strong bullish sentiment among speculators.
- *Commodities & Metals*: Gold stabilizing near monthly lows; oil prices steady, supporting commodity-linked currencies.
- *Indices & Crypto*: Risk-on sentiment in global indices aligns with bullish XAU/USD bias; crypto inflows up $785M last week.
**Trading Caution 📰**
Steer clear of new trades during major news to avoid volatility spikes.
Use trailing stops to protect open positions and lock in profits. 🚫
**Power Up the Heist! 💥**
Smash that Boost Button to fuel our trading crew! 🤝 With the *Thief Trading Style*, we’re snatching profits daily. Watch for the next plan! 🐱👤🚀
Happy trading, and let’s stack that cash! 💸🎉
Gold Gains on US Credit Downgrade, Tax RiskTVC:GOLD OANDA:XAUUSD Gold (XAU/USD) surged to a one-week high of $3,306 on Tuesday, fueled by rising concerns over the U.S. economic outlook. The metal benefited from a weaker dollar, following Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. credit rating and renewed fears over President Trump’s proposed tax cuts, which could add $3–5 trillion to the national debt. Global risk sentiment also took a hit, with ongoing U.S.-Japan trade tensions and muted progress in U.S.-China talks.
Technically, gold is approaching key resistance at $3,306. A firm breakout above $3,306 would signal bullish continuation, while short-term support lies at $3,288 and $3,240. The RSI around 60 suggests consolidation may precede another push higher.
With central banks citing U.S. policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks lingering, gold’s safe-haven appeal remains intact.
Resistance : $3,306 , $3,364
Support : $3,288 , $3,240
GOLDGold prices are strongly influenced by the interest rate differential and bond yields, particularly real interest rates, which represent nominal yields adjusted for inflation. The key dynamics are:
Real Interest Rates and Opportunity Cost:
Gold is a non-yielding asset, so its attractiveness depends largely on the opportunity cost of holding it versus interest-bearing assets like government bonds. When real interest rates are high (nominal rates minus inflation), investors prefer interest-bearing assets, putting downward pressure on gold prices. Conversely, low or negative real rates reduce this opportunity cost, making gold more appealing as a store of value and driving prices upward.
Nominal Interest Rates and Inflation:
High nominal rates combined with low inflation create positive real rates, discouraging gold investment. But when inflation outpaces nominal rates, real rates turn negative, supporting gold demand. This interplay explains why gold often rallies during periods of low or falling interest rates, especially if inflation remains elevated.
Central Bank Policies:
The U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy decisions heavily impact gold through their influence on interest rates and the U.S. dollar. Rate hikes typically strengthen the dollar and increase yields, pressuring gold prices downward. Rate cuts or pauses often support gold by lowering yields and weakening the dollar.
Bond Yields:
Rising government bond yields, especially U.S. Treasuries, tend to weigh on gold prices by increasing the return on competing assets. However, if yields rise due to inflation fears or economic uncertainty, gold can still benefit as a hedge. The relationship is nuanced and depends on whether yields rise faster than inflation.
Recent Trends and Forecasts (2025):
Gold has surged over 25% in 2025, reaching near all-time highs around $3,500 per ounce, supported by expectations of interest rate cuts by central banks like the ECB, ongoing inflation concerns, and geopolitical risks. Despite the Fed maintaining rates at 4.25–4.5%, gold remains resilient due to tariff uncertainties and safe-haven demand. Analysts like Goldman Sachs forecast further gains toward $3,700 or higher by year-end 2025, driven by central bank buying and investor shifts away from traditional assets.
Summary Table
Factor Impact on Gold Price
High Real Interest Rates Negative (gold less attractive)
Low or Negative Real Interest Rates Positive (gold more attractive)
Fed Rate Hikes Usually negative (higher yields, stronger USD)
Fed Rate Cuts or Pauses Usually positive (lower yields, weaker USD)
Rising Bond Yields (nominal) Often negative unless inflation fears dominate
Inflation Outpacing Yields Positive (gold as inflation hedge)
Geopolitical/Economic Uncertainty Positive (safe-haven demand)
In essence:
Gold’s price movements are inversely correlated with real interest rates and sensitive to bond yield changes. Central bank policies that lower real yields or increase uncertainty tend to boost gold prices, while rising real yields and a stronger dollar typically weigh on gold. The current environment of moderate real rates, inflation concerns, and geopolitical risks supports gold’s strong performance in 2025.
What is carry trade in forex ??
A carry trade is a popular forex trading strategy where a trader borrows money in a currency with a low interest rate (the funding currency) and uses it to buy a currency with a higher interest rate (the target currency). The goal is to profit from the difference between the two interest rates, known as the interest rate differential.
How It Works:
The trader sells or shorts the low-yielding currency and buys or goes long on the high-yielding currency.
By holding this position overnight, the trader earns the interest rate differential—essentially collecting interest on the higher-yielding currency while paying less interest on the borrowed currency.
For example, borrowing Japanese yen (which historically had very low or negative rates) to buy Australian dollars (which had higher rates) allowed traders to earn the difference in interest rates.
Key Points:
Profit Sources: Traders can profit from both the interest rate differential and potential appreciation of the higher-yielding currency.
Leverage: Carry trades often use high leverage, magnifying gains but also increasing risk.
Risks: Exchange rate fluctuations can offset interest gains, and sudden market shifts can force traders to unwind positions, causing volatility.
Market Conditions: Carry trades perform best in stable, low-volatility environments where interest rate differentials remain wide and exchange rates do not move sharply against the trader.
Example:
If the Australian dollar has a 4% interest rate and the Japanese yen has a 1% interest rate, a trader borrowing yen to buy Australian dollars could earn a net 3% interest differential, assuming exchange rates remain stable.
In summary:
A carry trade is a strategy to earn profits by exploiting differences in interest rates between two currencies, borrowing cheap money to invest in higher-yielding assets, commonly used in forex markets.
#gold #dollar#fx
Gold Move 20 May 2025🔍 Buy Setup Analysis – 3222–3225 Zone
Price is expected to retrace into the 3222–3225 demand zone during the London session. This level if holds and aligns with potential bullish interest.
✅ Entry Signal Criteria
Price enters 3222–3225 zone
Target: 3235/3245
SL: Below 3212
Bullish CHoCH or MSS appears
FVG forms and holds
Strong bullish candle closes above FVG
If these align, consider executing a long position with proper risk management.
XAUUSD BULLISH OR BEARISH DETAILED ANALYSISXAUUSD is showing a textbook technical reaction from a well-defined support zone around the 3145–3170 range, which aligns perfectly with previous structure and demand zones. After a sharp retracement from recent highs, gold is now posting a strong bullish bounce, validating this level as a significant area of buyer interest. With today’s push above 3230, this bounce confirms our bullish thesis, and I now expect a continuation move toward the 3500 mark in the coming weeks.
Fundamentally, gold remains one of the most favored assets in 2025 due to ongoing global economic uncertainty, rising geopolitical risks, and persistent central bank demand. With US inflation cooling and the Fed signaling the potential for rate cuts later this year, real yields are slipping, giving gold the macro tailwind it needs to push higher. Moreover, recent data from China shows continued accumulation of gold reserves, reinforcing the long-term bullish case.
Technically, this correction appears to be a healthy retest in a strong uptrend. The market has respected the previous breakout level, and we are seeing early signs of momentum returning. The price action is starting to structure higher lows, and if price clears the 3250 level convincingly, it will likely trigger further momentum-based buying. I’m targeting 3500 as the next major resistance, where we could see some profit-taking.
This setup is one of the cleanest long opportunities on the board. With institutional positioning still net long, and technical and macro alignment pointing higher, I see this as a high-conviction trade. As long as price holds above 3145, the path of least resistance remains up. I’ll be closely watching for further confirmation as we build toward the 3500 target.
Gold Analysis and Signals
Updated analysis of the beginning of the week in the form of micro-waves on the 4-hour time frame, important support/resistance areas and possible direction... Orders in the reward of R2 profit and risk-free with the price so that the highest possible reward can be obtained, of course, if there is no stop lol...