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XAUUSDG trade ideas

XAUUSD SELL NOWBased on current technical and economic indicators, it appears that gold is poised for a significant retracement. Here’s a detailed analysis: Gold Retracement Overbought Conditions: Gold prices, as measured by XAU/USD, have reached resistance levels and are exhibiting overbought RSI readings. This suggests that a correction is likely in the short term. Interest Rate Expectations: With rising real yields and the expectation of monetary tightening, gold—which is typically sensitive to higher opportunity costs—may lose its appeal. Technical Patterns: Chart patterns such as a double top or head-and-shoulders formation on gold's price chart indicate a potential bearish reversal. Flow of Money to Risk Assets Asset Reallocation: As investors seek higher yields, we’re likely to see capital flowing out of safe-haven assets like gold into riskier assets such as equities and cryptocurrencies. Equity Market Momentum: Equity indices are showing robust performance with upward-trending moving averages. Historical data suggests that when gold retreats, equities tend to benefit from the reallocation of funds, with projections indicating a minimum upward trend until the end of June. Crypto Surge: Cryptocurrencies, known for their volatility, have been on an upward trajectory, and the anticipated inflow of capital could further drive their prices higher. The crypto market is already exhibiting bullish momentum, supported by increased institutional interest and favorable technical signals. Outlook Through September/October Gold: Expect a continued downward pressure on gold prices through September and October as the shift in market sentiment persists. Equities: Equities are likely to remain buoyant at least until the end of June, driven by improved risk appetite and capital inflows. Cryptocurrencies: The inflow of risk capital is projected to boost cryptocurrencies further, reinforcing their position as a leading volatile asset class. In summary, current technical setups combined with macroeconomic trends suggest that the money flow is shifting from gold into equities and cryptocurrencies, setting the stage for a robust equity performance at least through June and a continued rally in the crypto space, while gold faces a strong retracement.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by SGsauragestion
Gold prices fluctuate dramatically!Market news: On Friday (April 4) in the Asian session, spot gold fluctuated in a narrow range and is currently trading around $3112/ounce. On Thursday (April 3), international gold experienced amazing fluctuations, with a single-day fluctuation of nearly $200, and the gold price eventually closed down. In the morning, due to the safe-haven buying driven by Trump's tariff policy, the gold price once refreshed its historical high to 3167, but then the bulls took the opportunity to take profits. The London gold price once fell by more than $110 to $3054/ounce, and then received support from bargain hunting. The poor performance of the US ISM manufacturing PMI data in March and the sharp drop in US stocks also provided support for the international gold price, helping the gold price to rise above the 3100 mark! The financial market was in panic, and people speculated that inflation would soar and economic development would stagnate. Concerns about a US recession rose, and people speculated that the Federal Reserve would have to adjust its monetary policy accordingly. The dollar plummeted, and stock markets around the world also plummeted. Central banks' buying may continue to support the rise of gold prices this year. They hope to avoid the risks brought by Trump's policies, so they are looking for options other than the US dollar. The US non-farm payrolls report for March will be released today. The market expects 135,000 new jobs and the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 4.1%. Investors need to pay close attention. In addition, Fed Chairman Powell will deliver a speech, which investors also need to pay close attention to. Technical Review: Why did the market volatility fall and rise by nearly $200 yesterday, exceeding the historical market's sharp decline and rise. Special tariffs were implemented yesterday, and then a series of policies on corresponding tariffs in various countries will be introduced. The main market players took this opportunity to carry out a large-scale wash and harvest retail investors. After the sharp drop, the stage high point appeared, and the follow-up was that both long and short positions could participate. The first plunge only established the high point position, and it was not so fast to turn short. It would fluctuate for a period of time. Generally, major news is an opportunity. The news in the early morning detonated the market, and the main players often did it with the help of news to increase shipments. Yesterday's market was really exciting. I can only say! Gold rose and fell on the daily line. The sharp rise in the early trading did not continue. It rose to 3168 and was under pressure. It quickly entered an adjustment, with a downward adjustment space of more than $100. The callback space is larger than the upward space, that is, a wide range of washing with slow rise and fast adjustment. The volatility base is large, and both long and short positions need to respond flexibly, depending on the pattern. Falling below the previous day's starting low of 3100 is a short-term empty point, and the lowest retracement was 3054. Then it pulled back to close above 3100. The daily line has a short-term local adjustment, and the short-term is temporarily oscillating widely around the 3168-3050 range. Today's analysis: Gold prices fell on a new profit-taking as traders chose to cash out before the release of the crucial US non-farm payrolls data. Given the increased risk of recession, non-farm data will help provide a clear sense of the Fed's interest rate outlook. What is coming has come. The volatility of gold is really getting bigger day by day. The fluctuation of a single day is several hundred US dollars. The decline is always faster than the rise, and it is more fierce. After breaking the 3100 watershed, it accelerated downward. The current minimum is 3054. The key position below is 3033/3054. Pay attention to the plunge and the card position. You can also participate in buying, but you must wait patiently for the position.The 1-hour moving average of gold still shows signs of turning downward, but the rise of gold in the US market has not allowed the 1-hour moving average of gold to enter the dead cross pattern. Although the gold bulls have strongly rebounded, it is also because of the retaliatory rebound stimulated by the risk-averse news. However, gold continued to fall after the high, and gold began to return to volatility. In the short term, gold is supported near 3100! If gold falls below the support near 3100 again, then the gold bears will still have more advantages in this tug-of-war. Today is the non-agricultural data again. Overall, the impact of non-agricultural data is expected to be eclipsed. More important is the stimulation of the news. However, it may be noted that if gold holds the 3100 mark for a long time, then gold is expected to fluctuate upward above 3100. If it does not fall below 3100, then it is necessary to adjust thinking in time. Operation ideas: Buy short-term gold at 3097-3100, stop loss at 3090, target at 3130-3140; Sell short-term gold at 3132-3135, stop loss at 3144, target at 3100-3090; Key points: First support level: 3100, second support level: 3078, third support level: 3054 First resistance level: 3120, second resistance level: 3135, third resistance level: 3167
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by BraveTigercat
Gold daily time , AScending cHannelGold (XAU/USD) Daily Chart Analysis – April 4, 2025 1. Trend & Structure Overall Trend: Gold has been in a strong uptrend, forming higher highs and higher lows within an ascending channel. Current Position: Price is currently near the upper boundary of the channel, suggesting potential resistance and a possible pullback. 2. Key Support & Resistance Levels Resistance: ~$3,120 (upper trendline of the ascending channel) Support: ~$3,000 (mid-channel support) and ~$2,900 (lower boundary of the channel) 3. RSI Analysis RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is currently at 70.79, which is near the overbought level. This indicates that gold might be overextended and could see a short-term pullback before continuing higher. 4. Volume Analysis There was a high volume spike recently, suggesting strong buying activity. However, if volume decreases on the next push higher, it could indicate buyer exhaustion. 5. Possible Trading Scenarios 📉 Bearish Scenario (Pullback) If gold fails to hold above $3,100, a correction towards $3,000 or even $2,900 could be expected. A confirmed break below the mid-channel could indicate a deeper correction. 📈 Bullish Scenario (Breakout) If price consolidates and breaks above $3,120-$3,150, it could continue rallying toward $3,200-$3,250. 6. Trading Plan Short-Term Trade: Look for potential shorting opportunities around $3,120 with a stop above $3,150 and targets around $3,000. Long-Term Trade: Wait for a retracement toward $3,000-$2,900 for buying opportunities with a stop below $2,880.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Forexbeats
Countdown to the implementation of tariffs - long-short game1. Real-time market and core drivers Core driving factors: Countdown to tariff policy: The 10% base tariff signed by Trump on April 2 will take effect on April 5. Combined with the impact of automobile tariffs (25%) on the global supply chain, market concerns about inflation (expected to rise to 3.5%) and economic recession continue to ferment. The EU has launched a retaliatory tariff plan, which may further boost the safe-haven demand for gold. Geopolitical escalation: The situation in the Middle East continues to be tense. The US military deployed 6 B-2 stealth bombers to the Diego Garcia base and formed a double aircraft carrier strike group in the Red Sea; the Shandong ship of mainland China confronted the USS Carl Vinson in the Taiwan Strait, and the geopolitical risk premium provided support for gold prices. Central bank gold buying wave: Global central banks will net buy 1,045 tons of gold in 2024. SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased to 931.94 tons, a three-year high, indicating that institutional funds continued to inflow. 2. In-depth analysis of technical aspects Trend and structure: Monthly level: After gold price hit a record high of $3167, it formed a "head and shoulders bottom" pattern, and the measured increase pointed to $3200-3300. The Fibonacci extension level shows that $2250/2480/3200 constitutes a golden channel, and it is currently in the third wave of main rise. Daily level: The Bollinger band opening expanded to $120 (upper rail 3175, lower rail 3055), the RSI indicator is overbought (72) but no top divergence has occurred, and the MACD green column continues to expand, indicating strong bullish momentum. Key points: Support level: $3050 (Daily Bollinger band middle rail + Fibonacci retracement level). Resistance level: $3170 (historical high), $3200 (integer mark + weekly RSI critical value). 3. Long-short strategy and risk control Swing trading strategy: Entry: If the gold price breaks through $3170 and then falls back quickly, you can place a short order in the 3160-3150 range, with a target of $3130. Stop loss: $3180 (admit the mistake and leave the market after breaking through the historical high). Win-loss ratio: 4:1. Entry: Relying on the support of $3050, build positions in batches, first position (US$3155) + additional position (US$3165), the total position does not exceed 40%. Target: US$3130 (first stage), US$3150 (second stage). Stop loss: $3,135 4. Institutional views and outlook Goldman Sachs: Raised its gold price forecast for the end of 2025 to $3,300, emphasizing that central bank gold purchases (1,000 tons per year) and the Fed's rate cuts (58% probability in May) are the core driving forces. UBS: Maintains a target price of $3,200, pointing out that gold ETF fund inflows (net inflows of $23 billion in the first quarter) and geopolitical risks (Taiwan Strait, Middle East) will push prices to break through historical highs. Geopolitical risks: After the tariffs take effect on April 5, the EU may initiate retaliatory measures, coupled with the escalation of the situation in the Middle East, and the safe-haven demand for gold may further explode. 5. Key events April 5: Tariffs take effect, pay attention to EU countermeasures; April 7: US non-farm data (forecast to increase by 180,000); April 10: Federal Reserve meeting minutes.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by EdithTout
Gold (XAU/USD) Breaks Ascending Channel – Bearish Move Ahead?📉 Market Structure: Gold was moving in an ascending channel, but price has now broken below the support trendline. This suggests a possible trend reversal or correction. 📌 Key Levels: Resistance : $3,125 - $3,170 Support: $3,054 - $3,035 Target: $3,000 - $2,995 📊 Trade Idea: A pullback to support-turned-resistance could give a short entry. Bearish target: $3,000 if rejection holds. Invalidation: If price reclaims $3,125. 🔍 Watch for: Price reaction at the former channel support. Possible retest before further drop. Let me know if you need any modifications! 🚀
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by PIPsOptimizer
Gold price hits a new all-time high!Market news: In the early Asian trading on Thursday (April 3), spot gold continued to rise, once refreshing its historical high to $3,168/ounce, as US President Trump declared a national emergency on Wednesday to enhance the competitive advantage of the United States, protect US sovereignty, and strengthen US national and economic security. He will impose a 10% benchmark tariff on all goods imported into the United States and impose higher tariffs on some of the largest US trading partners. This move will lead to an intensification of the trade war launched after his return to the White House, and the market risk aversion sentiment has risen sharply. After the news of large-scale tariffs came out, the market risk aversion sentiment rose sharply in the early Asian trading on Thursday, US stock futures plummeted, and Dow futures plunged more than 1,100 points. London gold prices soared, and international gold prices soared after US President Trump announced reciprocal tariffs on global trading partners. Gold is traditionally a safe-haven asset in times of geopolitical and economic uncertainty. When people's concerns about the global economy intensify, investors regard gold as a safe haven. Such concerns have helped gold prices rise 19% so far this year after a strong rally in 2024, driven mainly by massive central bank purchases and strong demand in Asia. The dollar index fell after Trump's tariff plan was announced, making gold more expensive for buyers holding foreign currencies. Investors need to pay attention to the number of layoffs in challenger companies in the United States in March, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending March 29, and the ISM non-manufacturing PMI data in the United States in March. In addition, investors need to pay attention to the market's further interpretation of Trump's tariff policy and the response measures of various countries, and pay attention to changes in national stock market performance and risk aversion. Technical Review: At the daily level, gold started the downward adjustment mode on Tuesday, breaking the previous continuous rise in one fell swoop. However, the current moving average system still maintains an upward divergent trend. The 4-hour trend of gold temporarily maintains a high range of oscillation repair. At present, the short-term moving average is basically in a state of adhesion and flattening, and tends to continue to maintain a high-level oscillation repair trend during the day. The 1-hour moving average of gold is still a golden cross with upward bullish arrangement. Although gold fell below the moving average support yesterday, the strength of gold bulls to bottom out and rebound is still relatively strong, and with the support of gold safe-haven, gold bulls are still better. As long as it does not break 3100, it will continue to be strongly bullish. Today's analysis: The news of gold early in the morning upgraded the risk aversion, and gold broke upward again. Then the previous resistance of gold has now become support again. The previous platform support of gold at 3135 has broken upward, so gold has now formed support at 3135. Gold fell back in the Asian session and continued to buy. Since after the shock, gold bulls have exerted their strength again under the stimulation of risk aversion, the trend continues to belong to bulls, and gold fell back in the Asian session and continued to buy. The 1-hour moving average of gold turned upward again, and gold bulls regained control of the home court. Gold fell back in the Asian session and continued to buy on dips on the previous platform support of 3135. Now risk aversion stimulates gold to rise. Don't chase it directly at high levels for the time being, and wait patiently for the opportunity to fall back. As risk aversion is upgraded, gold buying will continue to be strong and gold is expected to rise to a higher level. Operation ideas: Short-term gold 3132-3135 buy, stop loss 3124, target 3160-3170; Short-term gold 3174-3177 sell, stop loss 3185, target 3140-3130; Key points: First support level: 3140, second support level: 3133, third support level: 3120 First resistance level: 3166, second resistance level: 3174, third resistance level: 3187
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by BraveTigercat
Gold price is above 3130, long at low priceGold price is above 3130, long at low price As shown in the figure 12345 form channel changes respectively, and the trend accelerates upward Principle: Trends are abstract So we draw specific channel lines to intuitively feel the trend You can see that the channel angle reflected by 1-5 is constantly expanding. The reflected gold price trend: emotions are getting stronger and stronger The gold price trend is about to get out of control Let's now focus on analyzing the two triangle oscillation convergence patterns AB Principle: The end of the triangle convergence oscillation is the time to choose a new direction Now, it has entered the end of the oscillation So we can draw a conclusion Gold prices may soar or plummet at any time Then the existing strategy is to follow the trend The simplest and most effective strategy is to use 3130 as support Retreat to low prices and go long Stop loss near 3130 (determine the stop loss based on your order ratio and the price effectively captured) Once the gold price explodes in the future, breaking through 3200 is also a high probability event
FX:XAUUSD
by Louisa00000
XAUUSD Technical Breakdown (1H + 4H Combo) gold can spike briefly in early Tokyo session if BOJ doesn’t act immediately. NO, it won’t last if BOJ hits the market or USD/JPY reverses. 1. Price Action – Tension’s High • 4H: Classic Evening Star showing up. That’s a solid bearish reversal — sellers are circling. • 1H: Weak bullish candle trying to break out, but it’s soft. Feels like bulls are exposed. • Inside Bar on 1H: Tight, coiled range. Something’s about to pop — either a breakout or a flush. 2. Range Game – Price is Trapped • Right now, we’re chopping between 3,154 – 3,160. • Price is teasing strength but keeps rejecting resistance. • Trap zone is active — don’t chase a late bull move here, that’s how you get clipped. 3. Indicator Signals – Read Between the Lines • VWAP on 1H: Flat. Price is just above, but there’s no real conviction. • Volume: • 1H: Dropping off — sellers may be setting the bait. • 4H: Climbing — looks like big money is getting ready to pull the rug after drawing in late buyers. 4. Trend Check – Short-Term Pullback Brewing • 1H: Price is pushing into resistance — feels toppy. • 4H: Overbought vibes, and bearish divergence is starting to creep in. 5. Volume – Telling the Real Story • 1H: Weak follow-through. Buyers are drying up. • 4H: Volume’s picking up, but it could be climax buying — one last push before it rolls over. 6. Key Zones – Support & Resistance • Resistance: 3,160 – 3,175. Price hit it and bounced like it ran into concrete. • Support: 3,132 – 3,122. That’s where buyers show up with bags of cash. • A clean break below 3,154 opens the trapdoor. 7. Momentum – Running Out of Gas • Bulls tried. They’re tired. • No solid follow-through = bears lining up to take control. 8. Elliott Wave – The Final Push • This looks like a stretched-out Wave 5. It’s spent. • Correction Wave A likely on deck — target: 3,132. 9. Harmonics – Pattern Breaking Down • Bearish AB=CD pattern forming, but the D-point never reached 3,172. • It’s rejecting early — could be a heads-up for reversal traders. 10. Volatility – Calm Before the Storm • Nikkei’s dropping — that’s risk-off. Could give gold a short-term pop. • But if the BOJ steps in and the yen strengthens, USDJPY drops, and gold might not hold gains. • No major moves out of Cambodia/Vietnam yet, but keep an eye on JPY volatility. ⸻ Trade Setup – Asia Session Plan • Order: Sell Stop @ 3,153.00 (wait for the breakdown) • Take Profit: 3,132.00 (targeting the demand zone) • Stop Loss: 3,163.00 (tight stop just above resistance) • Confidence: 88% ⸻ Why This Trade Makes Sense: • You’ve got a bearish reversal on the 4H and no real volume to support a bullish breakout. • A breakdown from this range opens up a clean downside run. • Asia’s risk-off, but gold already reacted — the juice might be gone. • 2.1 R:R setup — tight, sharp, and efficient. ========= SHORT-TERM: Gold’s Got a Window – But It’s Narrow • Nikkei’s drop = risk-off vibes. • Tariff tension = safe haven demand rises. • Asian traders might push XAUUSD up a bit early, sniffing fear in the market. • If BOJ stays silent, gold pumps toward 3,162 - 3,170.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by ICHIMOKUontheNILE
Gold market trend analysisGold risk aversion pushed up gold prices, but the bulls failed to continue, and gold prices fell after rising. From a technical perspective, the 4-hour gold price remained above the moving average, and the bullish trend remained unchanged. Structurally, the rise in gold prices was symmetrical in time and space, and the early decline was in line with expectations. The hourly chart showed a weak short signal and diverged. At present, the upper resistance is at 3137-3141, and the lower support is at 3111-3106. In terms of operation, I suggest that the callback is mainly long, and the rebound is supplemented by high short. Operation strategy 1: It is recommended to pull back to 3105-3100 long, stop loss 3092, and the target is 3130-3150. Operation strategy 2: It is recommended to rebound to 3139-3144 short, stop loss 3150, and the target is 3120-3105.
PYTH:XAUUSD
by Oliver389