The latest gold trend analysis strategy on June 6:
Analysis of key factors
Risk aversion subsides: The call between the Chinese and US heads of state released a signal of trade easing, weakening the demand for gold as a safe haven, causing the gold price to rise and then fall (3403→3335).
Fed policy expectations: Inflationary pressure may prompt the Fed to maintain high interest rates, suppressing the upside of gold, but economic uncertainty still provides support.
Technical shock pattern: The daily line alternates between positive and negative, showing a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. 3405-3300 becomes the short-term key range.
Technical analysis
Daily level:
Form: On Thursday, it rose and fell back to close in the negative, falling below the 5-day moving average, but the slight increase during the day showed buying support.
Key position: 3405 above (previous high/resistance), 3330-3300 below (support area).
Trend: Maintain range shocks, need to break through 3405 or break below 3300 to choose the direction.
4-hour level:
Interval convergence: 3385-3335 is the main fluctuation range of the Asian and European sessions, and short-term trading can be high-short and low-long.
Long-short watershed: 3385 breaks through and tests 3405, and 3335 breaks down and looks at 3300.
Trading strategy
Asian and European sessions (short-term):
Long strategy: light long positions in the 3350-3342 area, stop loss below 3335, target 3370-3385.
Short strategy: short short near the rebound of 3385, stop loss above 3400, target 3350-3335.
US session/trend (breakthrough confirmation required):
Break above 3385: follow up long orders, target 3405, and hold cautiously after the breakthrough.
Break below 3335: follow the trend and go short, target 3310-3300, pay attention to take profit at low level.
Risk Warning
Impact of non-agricultural data: If the data deviates greatly from expectations, it may cause violent fluctuations, but the probability of a high rise and fall is expected to be high.
News tracking: Pay attention to the progress of Sino-US trade and the speeches of Federal Reserve officials. Any unexpected news may break the shock pattern.
Operational suggestions: Sell high and buy low in the current range, strictly stop loss, and avoid chasing ups and downs. Conservative investors should wait for the area around 3300 to arrange medium- to long-term long positions, or follow up after an effective breakthrough of 3405.
