THE KOG REPORT - Update End of day update from us here at KOG:
Nice move early session giving us the low we wanted for an entry long into the target region. We activated higher on Excalibur which also completed and the red box indicator gave us a wonderful performance across all the pairs we took profit on today.
Now we have support at the 3320 region with resistance sitting up at 3350 which will need to break to go higher. We've giving the potential range unless the levels are broken and there is a late session move. Either way, it's been another good week on the markets in Camelot and we'll see you on Sunday for the KOG Report and our view for the week ahead.
Wishing you all a great weekend, please don't forget to hit the boost button for us!
As always, trade safe.
KOG
XAUUSDG trade ideas
Gold will continue to grow and exit from pennantHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Gold. After looking at this chart, we can see how the price of Gold has been developing inside an upward pennant, formed after a powerful impulse from the buyer zone. This earlier move created a strong bullish foundation, supported by consistent reactions from the support area, which has since become a key defensive level. After the breakout from the upper boundary of the previous ascending channel, the price entered a phase of consolidation. However, rather than fading, the price action has remained tightly squeezed between the support line and the resistance trendline, creating the structure of a classic pennant. This pattern usually signals continuation, especially when supported by strong preceding momentum, which is exactly what weโre seeing here. Currently, the price is hovering around the support line of the pennant and has already shown signs of bouncing back up. If this rebound continues, the next logical move is a breakout through the resistance line of the pennant, with the 3450 level as a target. It aligns perfectly with the upper boundary and represents a strong technical TP1. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost ๐
XAUUSD (Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar) - Elliott Wave Count & Bullish ๐ XAUUSD (GOLD/USD) ANALYSIS: ELLIOTT WAVE + BULLISH AO DIVERGENCE ๐
๐ ELLIOTT WAVE STRUCTURE
โข ๐ป Wave (1): Sharp decline from 3,440.00 โ 3,400.00
โข โ๏ธ Wave (2): Shallow retracement to 3,440.00 (classic Wave 2 correction)
โข ๐ Wave (3): Extended drop to 3,350.00 (strongest bearish wave)
โข โฐ Wave (4): Sideways consolidation near 3,400.00 (Fibonacci-aligned)
โข ๐ฏ Wave (5): Final leg down to 3,184.58 (completes 5-wave impulse)
๐ CURRENT PHASE: Potential ABC correction forming between 3,184.58 and 3,140.00, signaling reversal!
โธป
๐ BULLISH AO DIVERGENCE
โข ๐ฝ Price Action: Wave 5 made a LOWER LOW (3,184.58 vs. Wave 3โs 3,350.00)
โข ๐ AO Momentum: Awesome Oscillator formed a HIGHER LOW (-60.00 vs. -100.00)
โข ๐ก Interpretation: Bearish exhaustion โ Reversal ahead!
โธป
๐ฏ KEY LEVELS & STRATEGY
โข ๐ก๏ธ Support: 3,140.00 - 3,112.50 (must hold for bulls)
โข ๐ Resistance: 3,200.00 (psych level) โ 3,230.00 - 3,270.00
โข โ
Entry Trigger: Close above 3,200.00 ๐จ or bullish candlestick (e.g., hammer ๐ฏ๏ธ)
โข ๐ฏ Targets: 3,270.00 (initial) โ 3,350.00 (secondary)
โข โ ๏ธ Stop Loss: Below 3,112.50 (risk management!)
โธป
๐ CONCLUSION
โข ๐ Bullish Case: 5-wave completion + AO divergence โ Reversal likely above 3,200.00
โข ๐ซ Invalidation: Drop below 3,112.50 kills the setup
โธป
๐ฌ CTA: โLIKE if you spot the divergence! ๐ Share your thoughts below โฌ๏ธโ
โ ๏ธ DISCLAIMER: Not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
โธป
๐ท๏ธ TAGS: #XAUUSD #GOLD #ELLIOTTWAVE #AO #DIVERGENCE
XAUUSD Gold Possible Move 14.05.2025Market Structure:
Gold was previously trading within an ascending channel but has broken below the channel, indicating possible bearish momentum. Price is currently hovering around the 3,234โ3,238 retest zone.
Key Levels to Watch:
Channel Re-entry Zone: 3,235 โ 3,238
Resistance Above: 3,258 and 3,278 (next major target)
Support Below: 3,207 (recent low); break below opens up 3,190 and 3,175 zones
Scenarios:
๐น Bullish Scenario:
Entry Trigger: M30 or H1 candle closes inside the channel above 3,238
Target 1: 3,258
Target 2: 3,278
Invalidation: M30/H1 closes back below 3,235 after re-entry
๐น Bearish Scenario:
Entry Trigger: Price fails to reclaim 3,235โ3,238 zone and forms rejection wicks / bearish engulfing
Target 1: 3,207
Target 2: 3,190โ3,175 (if 3,207 fails)
Invalidation: Strong bullish candle closes above 3,238 with follow-through
๐ Trading Tip:
Wait for confirmation via M30/H1 candle closes โ do not jump in on first wick. Patience pays off in breakout-retest situations.
Kindly follow, comment and support.
Gold setting up for another buyHello,
A buy setup is setting up on Gold on the four-hour timeframe and now is a great time to begin looking for the buys. Gold has declined by around 10% due to profit taking by early investors and also the macro-economic events. The US and China have called for a truce in their trade war and conversations about ending the Russia Ukraine are ongoing in Turkey this week.
The bullish flag is forming on this asset and at great buy points from the current levels. There is also a bullish crossover on the MACD indicator confirming that we might be closer to the bottom. While there may be a little pressure on Gold as clueless investors rush to liquidate their positions, we see this as the perfect opportunity to enter.
Target: $3600
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Bearish drop?The Gold (XAU/USD) has rejected off the pivot and could drop to the 1st support.
Pivot: 3,263.17
1st Support: 3,156.30
1st Resistance: 3,287.49
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Gold's Zigzag Retreat: Shorts' Comeback LoomsOn Friday, gold rebounded slightly and regained the $3,330 mark during the North American trading session. However, it showed an overall volatile trend throughout the week and closed near the middle band of the Bollinger Bands at $3,325.54. The market interpreted the US-UK trade agreement as an "empty-shell agreement". Coupled with Trump's tariff remarks ahead of the upcoming high-level talks among major economies over the weekend, the risk aversion sentiment has risen again, providing support for the gold price.
The real-time trading signals we provided have been profitable every day. If you don't know how to get started, you can refer to my strategies. ๐๐ผ๐๐ผ๐๐ผ
Judging from the current market structure, during the upward trend that started from $3,200, gold has not experienced an obvious central consolidation and has accumulated strong retracement momentum. Combining with the small-scale trend, the current adjustment is more likely to unfold in the form of a falling zigzag pattern or a rectangular consolidation pattern rather than a strong breakout, as the weekly resistance level has not been effectively digested and there has been no new positive driving force in the market.
Next week, we need to be cautious about blindly chasing long positions and especially give up the illusion of "breaking through the previous high". In the short term, the probability of a retracement is much higher than that of a continuous unilateral upward movement.
XAUUSD
sell@3330-3340
tp:3300-3280
Investment itself is not risky; it is only when investment is out of control that risks occur. When trading, always remember not to act on impulse. I will share trading signals every day. All the signals have been accurate without any mistakes for a whole month. No matter what gains or losses you've had in the past, with my help, you have the hope of achieving a breakthrough in your investment.๐๐ฝ๐๐ฝ๐๐ฝ
GOLD XAU-USD CORRECTION COMPLETE REALLY TOWARD UP $3400 0PEN XAUUSD continues to trade within a clearly defined bullish channel, showing strong adherence to upward trendlines and key support levels. Recent price action confirms the ongoing strength of bullish momentum, with higher highs and higher lows reinforcing the prevailing trend. Technical indicators, including moving averages and RSI, remain aligned with buyers, while macroeconomic factors such as inflation concerns and global risk sentiment further support the upside narrative. As the precious metal steadily advances, the $3400 level emerges as a key psychological and technical target, suggesting that, barring significant shifts in market dynamics, gold may continue its trajectory towards new highs in the medium term."
XAUUSD | GOLD | 12-May-2025 | 9:50 PM ISTBearish Continuation
If price stays below 3265โ3280 and continues downward momentum:
Target 1: 3200
Target 2: 3150
Target 3: 3080
Short-Term Pullback
If price holds above 3230 and breaks above 3280:
It could revisit 3340, then face strong resistance at 3420
XAUUSD first time to hit the 4H MA200 in a month.Gold (XAUUSD) hit its 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) today for the first time since April 08. That was a Higher Low at the bottom of the Bullish Megaphone pattern and produced its Aril 22 All Time High (ATH).
Since then, the market has been correcting under a Lower Highs trend-line, due to the de-escalation of the Trade War and today's 4H MA200 is so far a Double Bottom on a potential Descending Triangle.
Its last Bullish Leg peaked on the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, so we are now turning bullish targeting 3375 (current 0.786 Fib).
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
๐ธ๐ธ๐ธ๐ธ๐ธ๐ธ
๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐
Gold Spot vs U.S. Dollar (XAU/USD) on 1H.This chart is an analysis of the Gold Spot price (XAU/USD) on a 1-hour timeframe. Here's the breakdown:
Key Zones and Levels:
Entry Zone (highlighted in orange and red):
This is the area where the trader expects price to pull back before continuing downward.
It's marked as a potential sell zone or resistance area.
The Stop Loss (SL) at $3,301.500.
Target Level:
The expected move is bearish (downtrend).
Arrows indicate a move down toward the Take Profit (TP) target at around $3,203.000.
Trade Idea:
Type: Sell/Short
Plan:
Wait for price to enter the Entry Zone.
Enter a short trade within this zone.
Place Stop Loss above the zone at $3,301.500.
Target a move down to $3,203.000.
Focus on the long-short game at the 3,100 support level.The gold price broke below the 3,200 mark as expected during intraday trading and continued its retracement trend this morning.
With the easing of trade tensions, market anxiety has subsided, and the weakening of risk aversion has led to selling pressure on gold. This phenomenon highlights the significant impact of fundamental factors on the market, though their time-sensitive nature must be noted. In the long term, the overall upward trend of gold is not solely determined by single factors such as tariffs or geopolitical tensionsโthese elements primarily influence short-term movements. It is worth noting that when the market forms a highly unanimous bearish sentiment, it may instead accumulate momentum for a rebound in gold prices. Although the current market is in a weak correction phase, blind short-chasing remains inadvisable.
A number of key data releases are expected today, and their guiding impact on gold prices requires close attention.
Focus on the validity of the $3,100 support level. If the price stabilizes above this level, a light long position can be considered, with a target of around $3,180.
Currently, as the price has broken below $3,140, be wary of further correction risks, and short positions should flexibly adjust stop-profit and stop-loss levels based on real-time data.
I am committed to sharing trading signals every day. Among them, real-time signals will be flexibly pushed according to market dynamics. All the signals sent out last week accurately matched the market trends, helping numerous traders achieve substantial profits. Regardless of your previous investment performance, I believe that with the support of my professional strategies and timely signals, I will surely be able to assist you in breaking through investment bottlenecks and achieving new breakthroughs in the trading field.
Gold Market Extends Decline Before Bullish SetupGold market further declines, sweeping through the 3120s after the earlier mitigation at 3177. This move completes a broader demand zone sweep, setting the stage for a bullish emancipation with an anticipated rebound toward 3195โ3207. follow for more insights , comment and boost idea
Gold Bulls Are Loading โ Donโt Miss the Fair Value Launch Zone๐ XAUUSD 30M | Smart Money Breakdown
Gold just gave a liquidation + FVG bounce setup with a high-probability bullish reaction.
Letโs break it down like a sniper ๐ง ๐
๐ป 1. Falling Channel Structure
Goldโs been grinding down in a neat descending channel, consistently taking out liquidity beneath swing lows.
This compression usually ends in aggressive expansion โ and Smart Money knows it.
๐ 2. FVG Reclaim = Institutional Entry Zone
The chart shows a Fair Value Gap (FVG) perfectly respected around $3,226 โ $3,236.
Price dipped into this imbalance and is now reacting โ textbook Smart Money entry.
You're seeing clear demand stepping in after a sell-side liquidity sweep.
๐ 3. Target = Upper Channel + Imbalance Fill
If momentum holds, Gold likely reaches for the upper channel resistance and fills the imbalance zone up to ~$3,280+.
Thatโs your primary draw on liquidity.
๐ฏ 4. Trade Plan (RR ~3:1)
๐ Entry: Around FVG zone ($3,226โ$3,236)
โ Stop-Loss: Below the FVG zone
โ
TP: $3,280 (upper channel tap)
Smart Money is entering early while retail waits for confirmation breakouts ๐
๐งฉ Key Confluences:
โ
Falling Channel
โ
Fair Value Gap Tap
โ
Bullish Engulfing Response
โ
Clean RRR Setup
โ
Liquidity Sweep Prior to Entry
๐ Summary:
This setup screams Smart Money Accumulation. Gold hunts the lows, reclaims the imbalance, and is now gearing up for a bullish run. The reaction off the FVG is your golden ticket.
Let price work โ donโt chase, just manage risk like a pro.
๐ฌ Comment โ๐ฐ XAU Sniper Setupโ if you caught this one early!
โ๏ธ Follow @ChartNinjas88 for elite Smart Money plays.
๐ Tag a trader still shorting this range ๐
XAUUSD 15 MINUTE This chart shows the price movement of Gold Spot vs. the U.S. Dollar (XAU/USD) on a 15-minute timeframe, with technical analysis suggesting a bearish outlook:
Descending Triangle Breakdown: A descending triangle pattern has been marked, with horizontal support and descending resistance. The price broke down below the support, indicating a bearish signal.
Bearish Chart Pattern: There are multiple lower highs circled, which reflect weakening bullish momentum.
Breakout Confirmation: The recent candlesticks have broken below the support and are retesting the trendline from belowโoften a confirmation of a breakdown.
Target Projection: The downward arrow suggests a potential price target, possibly based on the height of the triangle formation, pointing toward the 3,110โ3,120 region.
This setup implies a bearish continuation unless the price quickly reclaims the breakdown level. Do you want help calculating the exact measured move target or a suggested stop-loss level?
Golden Opportunity: XAU/USDโs Bull & Bear Heist Strategy!Hello Money Makers & Market Bandits! ๐ค๐ฐโ๏ธ
Get ready to raid the XAU/USD Gold Market with our cunning Thief Trading Style, blending sharp technicals and deep fundamental insights! ๐๐ฅ Our plan? Strike with precision on both bullish and bearish moves, grabbing profits before the market turns. Letโs outwit the charts and stack that gold! ๐๐ธ
๐ The Gold Heist Plan
Entry Points ๐ช:
๐ดโโ ๏ธ Bullish Move: Wait for a pullback to the Institutional Hidden Buy Zone at 3080โyour signal to jump in for bullish gains!
๐ดโโ ๏ธ Bearish Move: Watch for a breakout below the neutral level at 3200โtime to ride the bearish wave!
Tip: Set alerts to catch these key levels! ๐
Stop Loss (SL) ๐:
Bullish Trade: Place SL at 2960 (4H swing low, Institutional Hidden Buy Zone).
Bearish Trade: Set SL at 3360 (4H swing high).
Adjust SL based on your risk, lot size, and number of orders. Stay sharpโthis is your shield! โ ๏ธ
Take Profit (TP) ๐ฏ:
Bullish Robbers: Aim for 3660 or exit early if momentum fades.
Bearish Robbers: Target 3080 or slip out before the market flips.
Escape Plan: Watch for overbought/oversold signals to avoid traps! ๐จ
๐ก Why XAU/USD?
The Gold Market is in a bearish trend ๐ป, driven by:
Fundamentals: USD strength from Fed policy, US growth, and tariffs.
Macroeconomics: US resilience vs. global economic weakness.
COT Data: Bearish speculative bets favor USD.
Intermarket: Rising US yields and equities boost USD, pressuring gold.
Quantitative: RSI and Fibonacci confirm bearish momentum.
๐ง Sentiment Outlook (May 12, 2025)
Retail Traders:
๐ข Bullish: 42% ๐ (Hoping for gold rebound on trade war fears)
๐ด Bearish: 45% ๐ (USD strength and improved US-China relations weigh)
โช Neutral: 13% ๐ค
Source: Social sentiment & trading platform polls
Institutional Traders:
๐ข Bullish: 30% ๐ผ (Safe-haven demand amid geopolitical uncertainty)
๐ด Bearish: 60% โ ๏ธ (USD rally and higher concrete 5/12/2025)
๐ข Bullish: 30% ๐ผ (Safe-haven demand amid geopolitical uncertainty)
๐ด Bearish: 60% โ ๏ธ (USD rally and higher yields suppress gold)
โช Neutral: 10% ๐ง
Source: COT reports & institutional flows
โ ๏ธ Trading Alert: News & Risk Management ๐ฐ
News can shake the market like a storm! Protect your loot:
Skip new trades during major news releases.
Use trailing stop-loss to lock in profits and limit losses.
Stay vigilantโvolatility is our playground, but only with a plan!
๐ช Ride with the Thief Trading Team!
Hit the Boost Button to power up our Thief Trading Style and make this heist epic! ๐ Each boost fuels our squad, helping us plunder profits daily. Letโs conquer the XAU/USD market together! ๐ค
Stay tuned for the next heist! ๐ฑโ๐ค Keep your charts ready, alerts on, and trading vibe high. Catch you in the profits, bandits! ๐ค๐
#ThiefTrading #XAUUSD #GoldHeist #TradingView #StackTheGold
7 month bearish trend with 3 retrace upwhile trying to figure out the retrace up (to 3294 - 3305)
I search for a bottom signal
1st red candle on the monthly
The start of the weekly bearish
and powerful support on daily make gold retrace up to 3294-3305 (or higher)
1. MACD and RSI are just bottom indicators, won't show the retracement up signal
2. Stochastic is the key here, however, stochastic is going down while price is going up
3. I expect a 3340 retest because of the anomaly while technically watching 3294-3305
4. while I write 3 retrace up, I wont predict all 3 the retrace up, just keep watching the bottom signal
this just speculation while anticipating the retrace up
GOLD โ Return to range. Fall from resistance...FX:XAUUSD is reacting to data related to the tariff war. The price is returning to the range and forming a false breakout of resistance. The level of 3370 and the zone of interest at 3387 play a key role.
On Thursday, gold rose to $3,400 amid a weaker dollar, increased demand for safe-haven assets, and continued uncertainty due to US trade policy and tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine. The Fed left rates unchanged and expressed caution in its assessment of the outlook, which also supports gold's rise.
However, in the European session, we are seeing gold react to the trade deal with Britain, most likely due to the easing of tariffs. Now the main focus is on the terms of the deal. We should not forget about China, where the situation remains tense, but everyone is waiting for a resolution.
Resistance levels: 3352, 3369, 3385
Support levels: 3319, 3269
The fundamental backdrop changes several times a day. At the moment, the situation is as follows: the rise of the dollar, the weakening of the tariff war, and the hawkish stance of the Fed may put pressure on gold. Therefore, I expect the decline to continue after a retest of 3370-3386. In this case, the target could be 3319.
Best regards, R. Linda!