XAUUSD Possible Move 21-04-2025XAU/USD Technical Analysis — April 21, 2025
The Gold shows a bullish trend continuation pattern, with price currently testing a key resistance area. Three key levels have been identified for potential buy entries depending on how price reacts:
🔴 1st Buying Level: $3,396 - Breakout and Retest Zone
Entry Strategy: Buy only if price breaks above this level and successfully retests it.
Condition for Buying: A clear breakout followed by a minor retest confirming support.
Condition for Selling: If price gets rejected at this level and shows weakness on a minor retest, a short position could be considered.
⚫ 2nd Buying Level: Around $3,370
Entry Strategy: Buy if price pulls back to this level and it holds as support.
Note: This is a more conservative buy zone, ideal if the breakout fails and price retraces.
Confirmation Needed: Look for bullish price action like a pin bar or bullish engulfing candle at this level.
⚫ 3rd Buying Level: Around $3,355 (Ideal Entry)
Entry Strategy: This is considered the “perfect” buying level.
Reason: It aligns with previous structure and demand zone.
Best For: Traders looking for a deep pullback with optimal risk-reward potential.
🎯 Bullish Target: $3,425
If price breaks and sustains above the $3,396 level, the next potential upside target is $3,425.
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XAUUSDG trade ideas
GOLD'S CRITICAL DECISION ZONE: The $100+ Swing Play of the Week!The Golden Opportunity That Elite Traders Are Watching NOW 💰
The 4-hour Gold chart reveals a masterfully developing technical setup that demands immediate attention. This isn't just another gold analysis—it's the precise roadmap for what could be the most significant price swing of April 2025.
🔍 TECHNICAL PRECISION POINTS:
⚜️ Expanding Channel Perfection
- Gold trapped within pristine ascending channel (purple boundaries)
- Current price ($3,320.925) testing first support zone
- Channel width expanding—signaling increased volatility ahead
⚜️ Two Critical Consolidation Zones
* Historical accumulation zone ($3,220-$3,245) provided springboard for recent rally
* Current decision zone ($3,300-$3,330) serving as near-term battleground
* Both zones perfectly align with channel support tests
⚜️ Predictive Blue Path Analysis
* Forecasting tactical pullback to $3,225 (channel support confluence)
* Subsequent powerful reversal targeting $3,320+ retest of highs
* Final move potentially challenging the $3,357.775 all-time high
The STRATEGIC ADVANTAGE Most Traders Will Miss
This pattern isn't just about direction—it's about precision timing. The blue forecast line reveals a classic "shake-and-bake" pattern that institutional traders use to accumulate before significant moves.
🔱 Why This Week Is Different:
* April 21-27 window represents peak volatility zone
* Volume profile showing 40.31K contracts with diverging price action
* Bullish bias maintained despite -0.47% daily change (distribution, not weakness)
🔱 The $100+ Opportunity:
Traders positioned at channel support could capture the entire $100+ swing from lower support (~$3,225) to upper resistance (~$3,330), representing a potential 3% move—extraordinary for gold's typical volatility profile.
The EXECUTION BLUEPRINT For Maximum Gain 📊
1. Primary Entry Zone:$3,225-$3,235 (channel support confluence)
2. Conservative Stop: Below $3,210 (channel break invalidation)
3. First Target:$3,275 (mid-channel equilibrium)
4. Final Target: $3,320-$3,330 (upper resistance retest)
{ Risk:Reward = 1:3.5 at minimum } 🚀
The Hidden Geopolitical Catalyst
The technical setup coincides perfectly with next week's critical economic data releases and geopolitical tensions—creating the perfect storm for gold's next explosive move. FOLLOW ME 🔥
GOLD at its peak, Trump and Powell in focusSpot OANDA:XAUUSD surged, with gold just hitting a new record high of $3,384.62 an ounce. Gold is now up more than $60 on the day. Trump's comments and the Powell "conspiracy" have combined to trigger market activity.
Earlier, US President Donald Trump released his insights into the negotiations on his social media platform Truth Social, saying that "the golden rule of negotiation and success is that he who has the gold makes the rules," meaning he who has the gold will have the upper hand. This post on gold is quite interesting, considering the market volatility caused by Trump's previous comments on stocks on social media.
Gold prices have surged to a record high as the U.S.-led trade war fuels safe-haven demand and the dollar weakens, Bloomberg reported, and data in the coming days could highlight early signs of damage to the global economy.
The International Monetary Fund is expected to cut its economic growth forecast on Tuesday, while the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) the following day will provide a snapshot of economic activity since U.S. President Donald Trump imposed tariffs.
Gold prices have hit record highs this year as trade conflicts have roiled global markets, denting demand for riskier assets while spurring a rush to safe havens among investors.
Gold ETF holdings have risen for a 12-week streak, the longest such streak since 2022. Central banks have also increased their holdings of gold, supporting strong global demand.
Bloomberg notes that the sell-off in the US dollar intensified on Monday as US President Trump weighs whether to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.
Powell's possible removal could undermine investor confidence as the Fed's independence is seen as a key factor in investing in US assets. However, given that Trump has previously said he welcomes a weaker currency because it makes US products more competitive, he may welcome a weaker US dollar.
Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
On the technical chart, the short correction last Friday ended quickly as gold continued to rise along the short-term price channel.
The increase broke the 0.618% Fibonacci extension, giving gold the conditions to continue to rise with the target of the 3,400 USD price point in the short term, more than the 3,420 USD price point of the 0.786% Fibonacci extension.
It is difficult to expect a significant correction in the current context, but the RSI down through 80 can be considered a good signal for the expectation of a short-term correction.
However, with the current position, the main technical outlook for gold is still bullish with notable positions listed as follows.
Support: 3,372 – 3,357 USD
Resistance: 3,400 – 3,420 USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3414 - 3412⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3418
→Take Profit 1 3406
↨
→Take Profit 2 3400
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3316 - 3318⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3312
→Take Profit 1 3324
↨
→Take Profit 2 3330
XAUUSD: 23/4 Today's Market Analysis and StrategyGold technical analysis
The resistance level of the four-hour chart is 3400, and the support level is 3285
The resistance level of the one-hour chart is 3371, and the support level is 3300
The resistance level of the 30-minute chart is 3350, and the support level is 3300.
The current gold price is short-term bearish.
The Asian session continued to break through 3300, falling to 3291.8, and then rebounded quickly. If the price falls below the 3300 integer mark again, it may further fall to 3285. After breaking the support of 3285, it will continue to test 3245.
If the price rebounds and breaks through the previous high resistance level of 3350 US dollars, the short-term trend may turn bullish.
Sell: 3350near SL:3355
Sell: 3285near SL:3290
Buy: 3300near SL:3295
GOLD UPDATEHello friends
As you can see in the picture, everything is clearly defined.
After a strong rise, we see a double top pattern at the top of the channel, which indicates that we should gradually wait for a correction.
Now, how far will the correction continue? In the picture, we have identified the support levels that the price can reach.
*Trade safely with us*
The gold market suddenly "changed its face"Gold plunged down from the high of 3500 yesterday, mainly due to the fact that US President Trump said at the swearing-in ceremony of Atkins, chairman of the US Securities and Exchange Commission, on Tuesday local time that he had no intention of firing Fed Chairman Powell, although he was disappointed that the Fed did not cut interest rates faster. The cooling of risk aversion directly affected the gold price, which once fell to $3366, and then closed near 3382, with the largest drop of 134 points on Tuesday. This wave of gold correction is still continuing. After opening today, it fell straight to 3315. Although it has completely recovered the decline, I think the short position still has continuity, so today's operation strategy is still mainly high-altitude.
Gold is currently trading below 3357. There are signs of a rebound in gold prices at the beginning of the European session. Now the upper suppression level can be moved down. The short-term suppression reference is 3330 here, followed by the second highest point on the way up to 3357; the lower support focuses on the vicinity of 3285, and after effectively breaking it, it can focus on the vicinity of 3245. Now the gold price is trading near the Asian low of 3315. The prudent operation idea is to short at 3331 to protect the gold price near 3320 and wait for the gold price to reach 3285. After the break, wait for the rebound to 3300 and then go short to 3245. It is not recommended to participate in long orders.
GOLD - at his fresh resistance ? What's next??#GOLD... perfect drop below our area as we told youabout CUT N REVERSE.
now market have 3328 to 3332 region as a current resistance region.
And market dropped 200 points around in 2 days (almost 1 day and 1 hour)
So keep close your region because if market holds that then further drop expected.
Good luck
Trade wisely
Gold has the strength to keep rising At the end of the week gold confirmed the formation of the trading range, support 3286, resistance 3356. I consider the continuation of realization of potential of false breakout of support as a positive scenario. If gold holds above 3313, the market may continue buying, which will lead to a rise to ATH
Scenario: the price is in a local descending channel, but in a global bullish trend. A bounce to 3313 from the channel resistance may occur, followed by a continuation growth to 3342 or to 3356.
DeGRAM | GOLD Anchored Above the Channel📊 Technical Analysis
GOLD trades within an ascending channel, holding above $3 285 support.
A breakout from a triangle confirms bullish momentum. Key targets are $3 360 - $3 380.
💡 Fundamental Analysis
Demand is rising amid safe-haven flows, Chinese insurer interest, and central bank buying. A weaker USD and US - China tensions support gold.
✨ Summary
Technical breakout and strong fundamentals favor XAUUSD growth. Holding above $3 285 keeps the path open to $3 360.
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Market Uncertainty and Gold Volatility: Trump's Fed Comments ShaThis week, the market has been rife with uncertainties. Former President Trump’s repeated criticisms of Fed Chair Powell—particularly regarding the pace of interest rate cuts—even raised speculation about Powell’s potential dismissal, triggering widespread market turbulence. On April 22, Trump clarified that he had no intention of firing Powell while reiterating his call for further rate cuts and praising the stock market's gains. This statement helped alleviate concerns about the stability of the Fed’s leadership.
Gold reacted sharply to these developments, experiencing wild swings on Tuesday that reflected rapidly shifting market sentiment. The precious metal’s movements remain tightly linked to geopolitical and economic headlines, with Trump’s tariff policies and rhetoric fueling safe-haven demand and driving capital into gold. However, caution is warranted—once risk appetite rebounds, prices could face a pullback. Although the daily candle swallowed the previous day’s bullish surge, a unilateral downtrend has yet to form.
Following Tuesday’s steep decline, $3,500 has been confirmed as a short-term peak, with safe-haven demand easing slightly. Gold opened lower on Wednesday at $3,312 before rebounding to $3,386, but failure to sustain upward momentum could invite renewed selling pressure, potentially pushing prices back toward $3,330. Key resistance now stands at $3,400–3,410, with support at $3,310–3,300. Analyst Xu Gucheng recommends a strategy of prioritizing short positions on rallies and considering longs on dips.
Trading Strategy 1: Buy on dips at $3,307–3,300, stop loss at $3,293, target $3,340–3,380.
Trading Strategy 2: Sell on rallies at $3,405–3,410, stop loss at $3,421, target $3,370–3,340.
GOLD POSSIBLE SELL Japanese inflation accelerates, complicating BoJ’s rate decision amid global uncertainty
Japan’s core inflation accelerated in March, yet economic uncertainty will limit the Bank of Japan’s ability to continue hiking rates in the near term. With inflation seen accelerating further, a BoJ tightening is likely in July.
#XAUUSD | Daily Higher Time Frame Analysis
📊 **#XAUUSD | Daily Higher Time Frame Analysis**
🔍 Gold has been moving in a **strong one-sided uptrend** over the past 3–4 months — surging from **$2500 to $3500**, marking a **massive $1000 rally** in under 4 hours! 🚀
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🛑 **Key Psychological Resistance: 3500**
Yesterday, price tapped into the **3500 zone**, a major psychological level.
🔻 This was followed by **intense selling pressure**, likely sparked by news regarding a potential **Russia-Ukraine ceasefire** 🕊 — hinting at possible war closure.
💥 This triggered a sharp drop to **3370**, and today’s market opened with a **gap down**, followed by a **swift recovery**.
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🧭 **What to Watch Today:**
📅 Today’s daily candle is **crucial**.
⚠️ If the candle **fails to hold above 3320** and closes **bearishly below 3320**,
expect a **panic sell-off** in the next 2–3 sessions —
📉 Potential downside targets: **3245–3190**
🌀 These levels also align with the **Fibonacci 0.50–0.60 retracement zone** from the last impulse.
---
🛠 We’ll fine-tune our **Buy/Sell zones** using **lower time frame analysis
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XAUUSD Gold Is Surging: Technical / Macro Analysis & Trade IdeaHey traders! Let’s break down the current price action on Gold (XAUUSD) using both Wyckoff and ICT concepts, and tie it all together with the latest macroeconomic context. 🚀✨
Wyckoff Methodology:
Looking at the 4H chart, we see a classic accumulation phase that transitioned into a strong markup. The recent price action shows a clear spring (liquidity sweep) below previous lows, followed by a sharp bullish move—this is textbook Wyckoff manipulation, where smart money grabs liquidity before driving price higher. The current rally suggests we’re in the markup phase, with demand overwhelming supply.
ICT Concepts:
Liquidity Zones: The chart shows a sweep of liquidity below the recent consolidation, trapping late sellers before a powerful bullish displacement. This is a classic ICT move—liquidity engineered and then swept.
Displacement: The large bullish candle breaking above the previous range signals a market structure shift (MSS) to the upside. This is a strong sign of bullish intent.
Fair Value Gaps (FVG): The impulsive move up has likely left a fair value gap (imbalance) between 3335 and 3385.50. Price may retrace to fill this gap before continuing higher.
Market Structure: The break above the previous swing high confirms a bullish market structure. As long as price holds above the 3335-3340 zone (50% retracement), the bullish bias remains intact.
Technical Trade Setups:
Bullish Scenario: Look for a retracement into the 50-61.8% Fibonacci zone (3335-3323) for potential long entries. If price forms a bullish rejection or bullish engulfing pattern here, it could be a high-probability setup targeting the recent high (3385.50) and the next extension at 3436.
Bearish Scenario: If price fails to hold above 3335 and closes below 3320, we could see a deeper retracement toward 3284 (100% retracement) or even lower, but this is less likely given the current momentum.
Market Sentiment:
Bullish 🟢 – The strong displacement, liquidity sweep, and market structure shift all point to bullish sentiment. Buyers are in control, and any pullbacks into the FVG or key fib levels are likely to be bought up.
Macroeconomic & Fundamental Drivers:
Gold’s rally is being fueled by several key factors:
CPI & Inflation: Recent CPI data shows persistent inflation, increasing demand for gold as an inflation hedge.
Interest Rate Expectations: The market is pricing in potential rate cuts by the Fed later this year, weakening the USD and supporting gold.
Geopolitical Tensions: Ongoing global tensions (e.g., Middle East, Ukraine) are driving safe-haven flows into gold.
USD Strength: Any signs of USD weakness further boost gold’s appeal.
Summary & Trade Plan:
Gold is in a strong bullish phase after a classic liquidity sweep and market structure shift. Watch for retracements into the 3335-3320 zone for potential long setups, with targets at 3385 and 3436. Stay alert for any macro news that could impact sentiment, but for now, the bulls are in control! 🏆📈
Disclaimer:
This is not financial advice. Always do your own research before trading.