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XAUUSDG trade ideas

XAUUSD Analysis – July 2–3, 2025: Resistance Holds Gold is currently trading around 3,337 USD, having tested the 3,350 USD resistance zone without a successful breakout. The price remains under pressure from key macroeconomic factors: - The Dollar Index (DXY) is stable above 106 – a sign of continued demand for the greenback, which weakens gold. - U.S. 10-year Treasury yields hold around 4.35%, reinforcing the view that the Fed will keep interest rates high. - The Core PCE report for June remains above the Fed’s 2% inflation target, decreasing expectations of a rate cut in Q3. - Safe-haven demand is weak, as geopolitical tension in the Middle East and Eastern Europe remains subdued. ➡ Overall, these factors confirm that XAUUSD remains under bearish pressure in both the short and medium term, especially while key resistance remains intact. 1. Technical Analysis – XAUUSD on D1 Chart - Price recently tested the 3,340 – 3,350 USD resistance zone, a confluence of: Previous supply zone - Fibonacci retracement 0.5–0.618 from 3,399 USD - Key Change of Character (CHoCH) level - RSI is forming a mild bearish divergence, signaling weakening bullish momentum. - EMA20 and EMA50 are both sloping downward – confirming the prevailing bearish trend. This setup is typical of a Sell on Rally pattern, with each retracement being rejected at strong resistance. 2. Key Technical Zones to Watch Technical Role - 3,350 – 3,340 Major resistance (Fibo 0.5–0.618 + supply + CHoCH) - 3,294 – 3,285 Nearest support – previously a resistance-turned-support - 3,255 – 3,235 Short-term target zone – June low - 3,223 – 3,205 Strong medium-term support – April low + extended Fibo 3. Suggested Trade Setup Preferred Scenario: SELL below 3,350 Entry: 3,345 – 3,347 Stop Loss: 3,351 Take Profit 1: 3,335 Take Profit 2: 3,330 Take Profit 3: 3,320 Ps : XAUUSD is retesting a major resistance zone without macro or technical catalysts for a sustained breakout. The best approach remains to sell at resistance and take profit near support, in alignment with the ongoing bearish trend. The strategy will be updated regularly – don’t forget to save and follow to stay ahead of market opportunities. The analysis was provided by @Henrybillion
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Henrybillion
5
XAUUSD – Bullish Flag Pattern on the Hourly Chart📌 XAUUSD – Bullish Flag Pattern on the Hourly Chart Gold completed a strong upward move last week and then entered a corrective phase forming a classic bullish flag pattern with a descending channel. 🟡 Currently, price is consolidating within the pattern boundaries. As long as it holds the support area around 3,325, the favored scenario is a continuation of the bullish trend upon an upward breakout. 🎯 Technical target after breakout: 3,419, based on the flagpole height. 📉 In case of a downside break, the scenario will be reassessed. 🔍 This analysis is for educational purposes only and not a trading recommendation.
ICMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by saal_eliyahu
Gold Daily Review Dear traders, the sell-off last night directly brought the bulls back to their original form. The closing price of 3325 made most of the gains accumulated hard this week spit back. To me, this wave of market is a typical "data killing". The June non-agricultural data came out halfway, and the employment data was so strong that even the old foxes on Wall Street were surprised. Now the market's bet on the September rate cut has dropped directly from 70% to less than 50%. How can gold, which is "interest rate sensitive", withstand such a critical blow? From a technical perspective, the negative line of the daily line is indeed ugly, but I think the bulls should not die. Look at the 4-hour chart. The Bollinger Bands have begun to "tighten their belts", and the 3310-3365 box is clearly drawn. Today is Independence Day. The US market closed early. Those Wall Street wolves probably ran to the Hamptons for a pool party. We are likely to play a "lying flat" market in the Asian and European markets. I calculated with my fingers that the 40 USD range of 3310-3350 is enough for us to toss around. Remember - short orders at the upper edge of 3345 should be as fast, accurate and ruthless as "whack-a-mole", and long orders at the lower edge of 3325 should be as patient as a fisherman! The news is now "ice and fire". On the one hand, Trump's "big and beautiful" tax cut bill has just passed the test successfully. After this shot of booster, the US dollar and US bond yields are soaring like stimulants; on the other hand, drones in the Middle East are causing trouble again, and the small flame of geopolitical risk has not been extinguished. If you ask me, gold is like a "schizophrenic patient" now, jumping back and forth between inflation narratives and risk aversion sentiment. Specific strategy: ① Directly "operate from a height" near the rebound of 3345, set the stop loss at 3352, and the target position is the 3330-3320 range. Remember that this position is the "previous high neckline position" and the probability of breaking is not high. ② You can "lighten your position and fish" when it falls back to 3325. The defensive position of 3315 must be strictly guarded, and the target position is the pressure zone of 3335-3345
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by Liz_Trading_gold
Market next target ⚠️ Disruption Analysis – Gold (1H): 🔹 Pattern Disruption Identified: The chart previously followed a descending structure with lower highs and lower lows, confirming bearish momentum. However, a temporary recovery (small bullish correction) appears after a sharp drop, disrupting the previous flow. --- 🔄 Disruption Points: 1. Break in Momentum (Structure Shift): The recent bullish correction (small upward leg) challenges the consistency of the descending trend. It signals a potential pause or trap in the current bearish move. 2. Price Rejection Area: Price attempted to bounce but failed to break above the previous lower high, indicating bearish strength remains intact, but is facing disruption from short-term buyers. 3. Volatility Spike: The long wick on the recent candle shows a volatility disruption, likely due to economic news or high-impact events (suggested by the ⚡ icon on the chart). 4. Target Zone Disruption: Though the yellow arrow points toward a bearish target, the slight upward pullback adds uncertainty about whether price will reach that level immediately.
TVC:GOLDLong
by Gold_Free_Signals
Why is the 147k Beat in Payrolls Data Not as Strong as it Seems?Yesterday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report came in above expectations, but a closer look at the details reveals a less encouraging picture. Despite the headline beat, market reactions quickly faded. For instance, gold initially dropped from 3350 to 3311 in the first 15 minutes after the release but has since recovered more than 75% of that decline. So why is the June jobs report not as strong as it first appeared? According to the BLS report, nonfarm payrolls increased by 147k in June, surpassing the consensus estimate of 106k. However, when breaking down the numbers, private payrolls rose by just 74k, well below expectations. Most of the gains came from government and healthcare hiring. Government jobs accounted for 73k new positions, and 63k of those came from the education sector alone. Some analysts suggest the high net hiring in education may be due more to a lack of firings, a consequence of a tight labor market in that sector. Meanwhile, the 59k increase in healthcare jobs is part of a long-term trend. Over the past two years, the U.S. has added an average of 70k healthcare jobs per month. This growth is largely driven by the needs of an aging population and reduced payrolls during and after the pandemic that have yet to fully recover. If you exclude government and healthcare hiring, U.S. payrolls increased by just 15k in June. The unemployment rate also came in better than expected, falling to 4.1% from 4.2%, while markets had anticipated a rise to 4.3%. However, this decline was driven by a drop in the labor force participation rate, which fell to 62.3% from 62.6% in just two months , a worrying sign that fewer people are actively participating in the labor market. In the first 15 minutes after the data came, gold fell to 3311 from 3350. In the following 18 hours, gold recaptures 85% of the loss. Gold is still over the broken bearish trendline in 1-H timeframe. With tariff deadline in 9th July and incoming 10-12 tariff letters coming in from Trump in the next few days, gold could have potential to go upwards with market understands this jobs data is not strong as it seems.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by ftdsystem
GOLD The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change for July 2,have a forecast of 99,000 jobs, compared to the previous month’s very weak result of 37,000—the lowest since March 2023. The ADP National Employment Report is a monthly indicator that tracks changes in non-farm private sector employment in the US, based on anonymized payroll data from ADP’s clients, covering about one-fifth of all US private employment. Who is responsible? The report is produced by the ADP Research Institute, part of Automatic Data Processing (ADP), in partnership with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab. Why it matters: The ADP report is viewed as a leading indicator for the official Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), released two days later. It provides early insight into US private sector job growth and labor market health, and significant deviations from forecasts can move financial markets. Note that the ADP report covers only private sector jobs, not government employment, so its numbers can differ from the official NFP. Summary Table: Report Date Forecast Previous Responsible Department July 2, 2025 99,000 37,000 ADP Research Institute (ADP) In summary: The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report, produced by the ADP Research Institute, forecasted a rebound to 99,000 jobs in June after a very weak 37,000 in May, providing an early signal on the health of US private sector employment. (2)US10Y drops to historical low to 4.193% and currently broken 1hr descending trendline at 4.281% ,4.3% resistance will be watched for breakout buy bond buyers. (3) DXY Key Points: The DXY measures the US dollar’s strength against a basket of six major currencies: the euro (57.6% weight), Japanese yen (13.6%), British pound (11.9%), Canadian dollar (9.1%), Swedish krona (4.2%), and Swiss franc (3.6%). After peaking near 110.075$ in January 2025, the index has softened , trading near 96.600-101.966.on weekly TF 101.966 was a retest to broken weekly demand floor . The dollar’s decline reflects market expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts later in 2025, easing inflation pressures, and some geopolitical easing. the DXY to rebound will henge and depend on Fed policy and global economic conditions. GOLD buyers are watching for the direction of trade , Chinese Demand and Policy: China is one of the largest gold consumers and holders. Domestic demand, central bank gold purchases, and monetary policy in China heavily influence XAU/RMB. If China’s economy slows or trade tensions with the US worsen, demand for gold as a safe haven may increase, supporting XAU/RMB even if the dollar is strong. China's recent opening of the Shanghai Gold Exchange's (SGE) first offshore gold vault in Hong Kong on June 26, 2025, represents a significant development with potential, albeit indirect, implications for XAU/USD (gold priced in US dollars) . Key Aspects of the Hong Kong Gold Vault: Location and Operation: The vault is located in Hong Kong and operated by Bank of China's Hong Kong unit . Yuan-Denominated Trading: All transactions and settlements in the vault are denominated exclusively in yuan, either via cash or physical bullion delivery . Two new yuan-denominated gold trading contracts were launched alongside the vault . Strategic Objectives: Increased Influence on Gold Pricing: China, as the world's leading gold producer and consumer, aims to gain greater control and influence over global gold pricing mechanisms . Yuan Internationalization: The initiative seeks to accelerate the international usage of the yuan, supporting China's broader de-dollarization efforts . This allows China to import gold in yuan, reducing reliance on the US dollar for commodity trading . Enhanced Global Reach: The vault expands the SGE's physical infrastructure beyond mainland China, creating a new gateway for international gold trading and solidifying Hong Kong's role as a key financial hub . Physical Settlement: It facilitates the physical settlement of gold contracts outside mainland China . Implications for XAU/USD: While the new vault directly promotes yuan-denominated gold trading, its implications for XAU/USD are primarily indirect and long-term: De-dollarization Efforts: By promoting yuan-denominated gold trading, China is actively working to reduce global reliance on the US dollar in commodity markets . If successful, a more diversified global gold trading landscape could gradually diminish the dollar's sole influence over gold prices, potentially leading to less direct inverse correlation between the dollar and gold . Increased Demand and Liquidity: The vault aims to attract more international participants to yuan-denominated gold markets, potentially increasing overall gold demand and liquidity in the Asia-Pacific region . While this demand is primarily yuan-driven, a generally stronger global gold market could indirectly support XAU/USD .
BLACKBULL:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
DeGRAM | GOLD held the support area📊 Technical Analysis ● Bullish rebound from the green 3 250-3 300 demand, where the rising-channel base and May’s inner trend-line intersect, prints a higher low and invalidates the prior break. ● Price is reclaiming the channel median; a push through 3 378 unlocks the June swing cap at 3 434, while risk is contained by the fresh pivot turned support at 3 300. 💡 Fundamental Analysis ● Softer US ISM-Mfg prices and a dip in 2-yr yields eased dollar pressure, while IMF data show another uptick in official gold purchases—both restoring near-term bid. ✨ Summary Long 3 300-3 320; hold above aims 3 378 → 3 434. Invalidate below 3 250. ------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with a like. Thanks for your support!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by DeGRAM
21
Excellent NFP sessionAs discussed throughout yesterday's session commentary: "My position: Gold is Trading within #3,350's belt which represents crossroads for the Short-term. Either #3,362.80 - #3,368.80 break-out to the upside towards #3,377.80 strong Resistance, or #3,342.80 - #3,352.80 break-out to the downside towards #3,327.80 Support. Current Price-action is ideal for Scalping since I don't expect major movement until tomorrow's NFP numbers." Firstly I have re-Sold Gold almost all Wednesday's Asian session from #3,360's (Wednesday - Thursday) closing my orders on #3,352.80 then re-Bought Gold with set of aggressive Scalping orders from #3,345.80 towards #3,352.80. As NFP numbers were delivered, I have waited for decline to find a Support and Bought Gold aggressively from #3,312.80 and closed on #3,320.80. Later on, #3,332.80 Sold again (#4 aggressive Scalps) and closed on #3,327.80 and with mentioned order finalized excellent NFP session. Technical analysis: The Short-term Price-action is Trading within #3,327.80 - #3,352.80 belt as I can easily spot idle movements on Hourly 4 chart with #3,327.80 Support bounces but regardless, Gold is Trading within my predicted values. Spot though on the Hourly 4 chart how Technicals are showcasing different / mixed values, and Gold is isolated within Neutral Rectangle with detectable Higher Low’s Upper and Lower zone. This is what I described on my commentary as an Bearish Divergence (BD) and is usually a first alert that the trend might be pointing to even stronger takedown. See how the very same divergence has Traded since November - April. On the November #12 Low, the Price-action started rising on an Ascending Channel but only once the structure formed a new Low. Then again after mentioned Low’s, Gold started rising until the next Bullish Divergence (which means, after local Low's tested, Gold engaged parabolic uptrend). I am monitoring closely #MA50 on Daily chart which is pointer for new #1 - #3 Month cycle. My position: I will take no new orders as I am Highly satisfied with my returns / also it is holiday in U.S. as I do not expect major moves throughout the session (only ranging candles with Low Volume). Enjoy the Profits and have a great weekend!
TVC:GOLDShort
by goldenBear88