No Bottom Yet: Gold’s Technical Targets Point LowerSince Monday, I’ve been saying that Gold hasn’t finished correcting, and the price action is now confirming that view. The drop continued with breaks below two key levels: the 3300 figure and the 3270 support, which was the recent low.
After some sideways action (a bit of a limbo), we finally got the clean breakdown. At the time of writing, price sits at 3248, having just bounced slightly from the 3240 support, which aligns with mid-April’s ATH.
Now comes the big question: Is Gold done correcting?
In my opinion, not yet – and here’s why:
Technical reasons for further downside:
1. The break below 3270 is significant and opens the door to deeper correction.
2. We now have two measured targets:
📉 Measured range target: ~1000 pips → puts price below 3200.
📉 First leg down: ~2500 pips → could push price closer to the 3000 zone.
Trading Plan:
The strategy remains unchanged: sell the rallies. As long as price stays below 3270-3290 zone, downside continuation is the base case.
A move towards at least 3200 looks very probable – and deeper levels can't be ruled out.
Don’t rush to call a bottom – let the market show when the correction is really done. Until then, the bias stays bearish. 🚀
P.S: Expect great volatility to remain
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
XAUUSDG trade ideas
Gold weekly chart with buy and sell levelsFrom the 4H chart you posted, here's a quick breakdown first:
Trend: We're seeing bearish pressure overall after a strong bullish leg. The price is under important retracement levels (0.382, 0.5, 0.618 Fib retracements).
Key Levels:
Strong resistance zone at 3340-3352 (aligned with Weekly Highs, Daily Highs, and a Supply Zone).
Immediate support around 3290 and 3228 (Weekly Open and previous price clusters).
Volume Delta: -3.72% macro (bearish), showing sellers have the upper hand currently.
Important Price Zones:
Sell zone: 3328-3340
Buy zone: 3228-3206
Scalping Strategy on 15-Minute (assuming London / NY crossover sessions):
Bias: Slightly bearish unless strong bullish reversal signals appear.
Ideal sessions: London Open (7-9 AM GMT) and NY Crossover (12-3 PM GMT).
Possible Scalping Setups
1. Sell Setup:
Trigger: If price retraces back up to 3328-3337 zone during London open or NY crossover and shows rejection (pin bars, engulfing patterns on 15M).
Entry: Short at around 3330-3335.
SL: Above 3345.
TP1: 3308 (Sell level on chart).
TP2: 3290.
Bonus TP: 3270 if momentum strong.
2. Buy Setup:
Trigger: If price dips into 3228-3206 (near Weekly Open) and shows bullish reaction (hammer, bullish engulfing).
Entry: Long between 3220-3230.
SL: Below 3200.
TP1: 3254.
TP2: 3270.
Bonus TP: 3290 if NY session volume kicks in.
Gold has little momentum to continue rising - continues to fall 🔔🔔🔔 Gold news:
➡️ Gold prices reverse course during Monday’s U.S. trading session, recovering strongly from an intraday low of $3,268.03 to hover around $3,330. In the absence of major macroeconomic data, investors remained focused on trade developments. Mixed headlines regarding U.S.-China trade negotiations stirred some concerns after a quiet start to the day, with cautious optimism leading earlier sessions in Asia and Europe, thereby putting pressure on demand for the U.S. Dollar.
➡️ However, gold struggled to maintain its overnight rebound and faced renewed selling pressure during Tuesday's Asian session. Signs of easing U.S.-China trade worries and optimism about potential trade deals from the U.S. continued to support a risk-on sentiment, weighing on the appeal of the safe-haven metal.
Personal opinion:
➡️ Positive information about tariff negotiations is appearing more and more, and the parties are also easing trade tensions. So the gold price decrease is still maintained or at least difficult to increase further, unless there is a strong enough announcement to push the gold price up
➡️ Analysis based on important resistance - support levels and Fibonacci combined with trend lines to come up with a suitable strategy
Plan:
🔆Price Zone Setup:
👉Sell Gold 3357 - 3360
❌SL: 3365 | ✅TP: 3352 - 3346 – 3340
👉Buy Gold 3270 - 3273
❌SL: 3265 | ✅TP: 3278 - 3283 – 3289
FM wishes you a successful trading day 💰💰💰
Gold Knocked Out at the Top – Bears Said ‘Not TodayPrice tapped into a key supply zone around 3,330–3,335 and showed immediate rejection. Entry was taken at the retest with a tight stop above the zone. Targeting the previous demand area near 3,293, and the bearish momentum followed through perfectly. Patience paid off — textbook supply zone reaction on the 45m chart!
XAU/USD Elliott Wave Count: Preparing for Final ImpulseXAU/USD appears to be in a textbook 5-wave impulsive structure on the 4H chart, with the market now completing Wave 4 as a classic ABC corrective flat/pennant.
The impulsive move from the Wave 2 low has formed clear internal substructures, with Wave 3 exhibiting extended price action, consistent with Elliott Wave guidelines.
Currently, price is consolidating in a contracting pattern labeled Wave 4 (A-B-C), which looks to be near completion. Based on wave symmetry and Fibonacci projections, a strong upside move is anticipated once Wave 4 concludes, leading into the final Wave 5 rally.
Entry Zone: 3286.875
Target: 3367.440– 3410.210
Stop Loss: Below 3260.190.
Correction down for goldHi traders,
Gold went a little more up (finish grey wave 3) and after that the bigger correction for (grey) wave 4 started just as I've said last week.
For next week we wait for the finish of the correction (Zigzag or Triangle) and after that we could trade longs again.
Let's see what price does and react.
Trade idea: Wait for the correction to finish and a change in orderflow to bullish to trade longs again.
If you want to learn more about trading FVG's & liquidity sweeps with wave analysis, please make sure to follow me.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis.
Don't be emotional, just trade your plan!
Eduwave
XAU/USD Trade Plan 30/4/2025XAUUSD Trade Setup:
We are watching the 3260 resistance level closely. If the market breaks above 3260, we will look for a buy opportunity, targeting the 3390 level.
However, if the market fails to break above 3260 and shows signs of rejection, we will consider a sell setup, with a potential move down toward the next support at 3200.
Breakout Watch: Triangle Apex Test Near $3,300Gold is approaching the apex of a symmetrical triangle on the 30-min chart, with price testing both the descending resistance and the ascending support trendline. This compression near the Fib 0.618–0.5 zone ($3,289–$3,226) suggests an imminent move.
Key levels:
Resistance: $3,300 (breakout trigger), $3,340, $3,380 (Fib 0.786)
Support: $3,260 (trendline), $3,226 (Fib 0.5), $3,162 (Fib 0.382)
RSI is rising off oversold (47), and volume is low — typical pre-breakout behavior.
A confirmed breakout above $3,300 could accelerate bullish momentum toward ATH levels. Breakdown below $3,226 invalidates the structure.
Watching for volatility surge within next 24 hours.
THE KOG REPORT - UpdateEnd of day update from us here at KOG:
Another blinder of a day on Gold! Although we didn't get the entry again that we wanted from higher up, we continued to hold with the move downside completing Excalibur and using the Indi levels and boxes to guide us.
Now we're at crucial support here and just below 3255 which if attacked and bounced, we should see a retracement up into the 3295 and 3310 regions initially. Too low to short, only support levels for tests here.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
XAUUSD- Signal to go down - 24/04/2025- With any macro economy problem, Gold & BTC are always the key asset to to shelter cash flow.
- From Gold H1 chart, It showed strong selling pressure recently. A short plan is reasonable with Gold. Of course, any plan can be wrong, but as a trader & value investor, we have to have the plans to deal with it and prepare to buy more good stocks, assets
- Explain the chart as - NCI system:
1. Strong momentum comes to down key level of H1
2. Big money comes in, Key level has not broken yet. But high probability Gold will go down.
3. Zone & Trend are shown on chart. Please refer on it for more detail
This analyzation is my personal view as a trader - investor, it's not a recommended deal.
Your ULTIMATE Guide For Time Frames in Gold, Forex Trading
If you just started trading, you are probably wondering what time frames to trade. In the today's post, I will reveal the difference between mainstream time frames like daily, 4h, 1h, 15m.
Firstly, you should know that the selection of a time frame primarily depends on your goals in trading. If you are interested in swing trading strategies, of course, you should concentrate on higher time frames analysis while for scalping the main focus should be on lower time frames.
Daily time frame shows a bigger picture.
It can be applied for the analysis of a price action for the last weeks, months, and even years.
It reveals the historical key levels that can be relevant for swing traders, day traders and scalpers.
The patterns that are formed on a daily time frame may predict long-term movements.
In the picture above, you can see how the daily time frame can show the price action for the last years, months and weeks.
In contrast, hourly time frame reflects intra week & intraday perspectives.
The patterns and key levels that are spotted there, will be important for day traders and scalpers.
The setups that are spotted on an hourly time frame, will be useful for predicting the intraday moves and occasionally the moves within a trading week.
Take a look at the 2 charts above, the hourly time frame perfectly shows the market moves within a week and within a single day.
4H time frame is somewhere in between. For both swing trader and day trader, it may provide some useful confirmations.
4H t.f shows intra week and week to week perspectives.
Above, you can see how nicely 4H time frame shows the price action on EURUSD within a week and for the last several weeks.
15 minutes time frame is a scalping time frame.
The setups and levels that are spotted there can be used to predict the market moves within hours or within a trading session.
Check the charts above: 15 minutes time frame shows both the price action within a London session and the price action for the last couple of hours.
It is also critical to mention, that lower is the time frame, lower is the accuracy of the patterns and lower is the strength of key levels that are identified there. It makes higher time frame analysis more simple and reliable.
The thing is that higher is the time frame, more important it is for the market participants.
While lower time frames can help to predict short term moves, higher time frames are aimed for predicting long-term trends.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Gold's Cup and Handle: Historical Analysis, post completionThe recent completion of a Cup and Handle pattern on Gold price action leaves an open question about the historical performance after such a technical formation plays out. While Cup and Handle patterns are generally considered bullish, there are legitimate historical reasons to question maintaining a long position after the pattern completes.
Pattern completion often marks exhaustion points
======================================
Historically, the completion of a Cup and Handle pattern indicates near term exhaustion of buying pressure rather than the beginning of a sustained move higher. This occurs because:
1) The pattern completion itself often represents the culmination of a buildup in speculative long positioning.
2) Technical traders who entered based on the pattern may take profits once their target is achieved.
3) The psychological milestone of completing the pattern can trigger selling from larger institutional players.
For example, the technical Bull flag of 2001 on completion saw a 40% following correction. Were that to happen on the Cup and Handle pattern upon completion price action would return to $1950
2001 Bull flag
Monetary policy transition periods
======================================
Historical analysis shows that gold's technical pattern reliability decreases significantly during periods of monetary policy transitions. If the Cup and Handle completion coincides with a shift in central back policy stance (particularly Federal Reserve policy), historical precedent suggest heightened risk of pattern failure.
Looking left, breakouts in the Bond market resulted in serious downside pressure for Gold price action, the Federal Reserve may not have a choice in the months ahead. Especially as the cost of servicing the debt grows and foreign entities increase Bond market selling pressure.
10 year Bond breakout
Conclusion
======================================
While the Cup and Handle pattern is traditionally viewed as bullish, historical data specific to gold markets suggest caution about maintaining long position immediately following pattern completion. The historical tendency toward mean reversion, pattern reliability concerns, volatility expansion, and correlation breakdowns all suggest that a more measured approach may be warranted.
Ww
What is gold waiting for? Stuck in the 3300 area⭐️GOLDEN INFORMATION:
Gold price (XAU/USD) fails to build on Monday’s rebound from the key $3,265–$3,260 support zone, encountering renewed selling pressure during the Asian session on Tuesday. Although signals from the US and China remain mixed, investor sentiment remains buoyed by hopes of a potential easing in trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies. Additionally, signs of advancement in tariff negotiations have further bolstered optimism, dampening the appeal of the safe-haven metal.
⭐️Personal comments NOVA:
Gold price needs to be boosted by economic news to break out of the sideways price range around 3300, continue to wait today around 3300
⭐️SET UP GOLD PRICE:
🔥SELL GOLD zone : 3366- 3368 SL 3373
TP1: $3350
TP2: $3340
TP3: $3330
🔥BUY GOLD zone: $3267 - $3265 SL $3260
TP1: $3280
TP2: $3300
TP3: $3318
🔥BUY GOLD zone: $3301 - $3299 SL $3296 scalping
TP1: $3305
TP2: $3310
TP3: $3320
⭐️Technical analysis:
Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable SELL order.
⭐️NOTE:
Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well
- take the number of lots that match your capital
- Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account
- Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
Gold fluctuates and the trend is bearish!The rise and fall of gold is not based on technical aspects, but more on fundamentals and big data, as well as the impact of tariffs. Without these influences, we are bearish this week. If the decline of the big C wave continues, the target will be 3230. 3165 is the Fibonacci 61.8 position of the callback and also the previous high point, which is easy to form a rebound. Gold focuses on two major suppressions, one is the hourly suppression around 3300, and the other is 3315 and 3328, both of which are opportunities for air forces. In terms of the short-term operation of gold, it is recommended to short on rebounds and long on callbacks. The short-term focus on the upper side is 3298-3300 resistance, and the short-term focus on the lower side is 3265-3260 support.
Gold is still Strong; Long-Term!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈GOLD has been overall bullish from a macro perspective trading within the rising wedge pattern in orange.
After rejecting the $3,500 round number and upper bound of the wedge, XAUUSD signaled the start of the correction phase.
Moreover, the $3,100 - $3,150 zone is a strong support.
🏹 Thus, the highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of support and lower orange trendline acting non-horizontal support.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #XAUUSD approaches the blue circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
The Golden Code: Unlocking the Markets with Fibonacci Sequence “Mathematics is the language in which God has written the universe.” – Galileo Galilei
If this is true, then the Fibonacci sequence is the poetry of that language, especially in trading.
📚 What is Fibonacci? Why Should Traders Care?
Fibonacci is more than just a sequence of numbers — it’s a universal law of growth and proportion. From galaxies to sunflowers, and now to the charts on your TradingView screen, Fibonacci is everywhere.
In trading, Fibonacci retracement levels are used to identify potential reversal zones, where price is likely to bounce or stall, making it one of the most powerful tools in a trader’s arsenal.
But few truly understand its depth, and fewer still use it intelligently.
Let’s dive into the power of the Fibonacci sequence, how it influences retracements, and how you can use it to your trading advantage, whether you’re a scalper, swing trader, or position trader.
🧠 The Fibonacci Sequence: Where It All Begins
The Fibonacci sequence is a series of numbers where each number is the sum of the two preceding ones:
0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, ...
Some Math somebody? Take your seats and calculators away! 😂😂
📉 Fibonacci Retracement Levels & How They're Calculated
These levels are percentages based on relationships between Fibonacci numbers.
✅ 0.236 (23.6%)
Divide a number by the one three places ahead:
Example: 13 ÷ 55 = 0.236
Another: 21 ÷ 89 = 0.236
✅ 0.382 (38.2%)
Divide a number by the one two places ahead:
Example: 21 ÷ 55 = 0.382
Another: 34 ÷ 89 = 0.382
✅ 0.500 (50.0%)
Not directly from Fibonacci, but commonly used due to psychological midpoint in markets.
✅ 0.618 (61.8%) – The Golden Ratio
Divide a number by the next number:
Example: 34 ÷ 55 = 0.618
Another: 55 ÷ 89 = 0.618
This is the famous Golden Ratio, which appears in nature, art, and financial markets.
✅ 0.786 (78.6%)
Derived from the square root of 0.618:
√0.618 = 0.786
📈 Fibonacci Extension Levels & How They're Calculated
Extensions project price targets beyond the retracement.
✅ 1.000 (100%)
A full projection of the original move.
✅ 1.272 (127.2%)
Square root of 1.618:
√1.618 = 1.272
✅ 1.618 (161.8%) – The Golden Extension
Divide a number by the previous one:
Example: 55 ÷ 34 = 1.618
Another: 89 ÷ 55 = 1.618
✅ 2.000 (200%)
A full double of the original move.
✅ 2.618 (261.8%)
1.618 + 1.000 = 2.618
This creates ratios that are found in nature, architecture, music, and, yes, price movements.
🔍 Fibonacci Retracement: Mapping Pullbacks with Precision
When price moves impulsively in one direction, it often retraces a portion of that move before continuing in the same direction.
Fibonacci retracement is used to map this pullback.
Here’s how traders use it:
Identify a clear impulsive move (either bullish or bearish).
Plot the Fibonacci retracement tool from swing low to swing high (for bullish moves), or from swing high to swing low (for bearish moves).
Watch how price reacts around key levels:
38.2% = Shallow pullback
50% = Midpoint (psychological)
61.8% = Golden Zone
78.6% = Deep retracement (but still valid)
🔥 Pro Tip: Most institutional traders love the 61.8% retracement, often placing hidden liquidity and traps around that area.
🔄 Fibonacci Extensions: Predicting Take-Profit Zones
Once price retraces and continues its trend, Fibonacci extensions help identify possible target zones:
Common extension levels:
1.272
1.618 → Golden Target
2.000
2.618
For example:
After a bullish retracement to 61.8%, price often rallies to 1.272 or 1.618 extensions, making these ideal profit-taking zones.
🔄 Real-Life Market Behavior: Fibonacci in Price Action
Let’s take a real example:
🟨 Example: XAU/USD Bearish Retracement
Impulsive rally from $2,832.99 to $2,930.77.
Price pulls back to $2,880 – exactly at the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Followed by a strong continuation to the upside.
Price reach for the 127.20% and beyond to 161.80% Fibonacci extension of the original rally before pausing for some times — textbook Fibonacci behavior.
💡 This isn’t magic. It’s structure, order, and smart money playing on the same field.
🧬 Fibonacci + Confluence = Confirmation
Fibonacci works best when combined with other tools:
Support/Resistance
Order Blocks
Imbalances
Trendlines
Candlestick Patterns
✅ A 61.8% retracement + bullish order block + bullish engulfing = a high-probability long setup.
✅ A 78.6% retracement + unfilled imbalance = possible stop-hunt trap or liquidity grab.
🧠 Fibonacci Psychology: Why It Works
Fibonacci works because it reflects natural human behavior:
Fear and greed create overextensions and pullbacks.
Traders place stops and entries near these key ratios, causing self-fulfilling reactions.
Algorithms and institutional models often base trade entries on Fibonacci confluences.
💥 Common Mistakes Traders Make
❌ Using Fibonacci on every small swing – noise, not signal
❌ Forcing the retracement tool to “fit” your bias
❌ Ignoring higher time frame structure
❌ Using Fibonacci alone without confluence
Remember: Fibonacci is a guide, not a guarantee.
📈 How to Trade with Fibonacci (Step-by-Step)
First, identify market structure (trending or ranging).
Second, mark swing high and swing low.
Third, plot retracement tool accordingly.
Fourth, look for confluence zones:
38.2%, 50%, 61.8%...
Price action signals (e.g., pin bars, engulfing)
Institutional concepts (order blocks, imbalances)
Enter with confirmation, not just based on levels.
Set stop loss below/above structure or 78.6% line.
Target extension levels or previous high/low.
🌀 Fibonacci in Different Trading Styles
Scalpers
Use Fibonacci on 1min–5min timeframes to catch micro pullbacks and entries.
Swing Traders
Use Fib retracements from daily or 4H structure to plot entries and targets.
Position Traders
Use weekly/monthly Fibonacci zones for macro views and long-term targets.
🧠 Final Thoughts: Fibonacci Is Structure, Not Sorcery
The Fibonacci sequence is a map of order in a chaotic world. In trading, it helps bring discipline, clarity, and precision.
It’s not about being right every time, it’s about stacking probabilities in your favor.
🧭 Ready to Master Fibonacci?
If you’ve read this far, drop your thoughts in the comments and share your favorite Fibonacci setup!
Let’s build a community of traders who use mathematics and structure, not hope and guesswork.
Follow for more educational breakdowns, trading insights, and strategy walkthroughs — posted weekly.
Bears are brewing, and gold will fall sharply!
For gold now, since it is basically oscillating in the large range of 3260-3370, the overall trend is oscillating downward, the highs are constantly moving down, and the lows are tested many times. The more tests are made, the greater the probability of a downward breakthrough. Therefore, the continuity of the rebound is not strong. At present, the entire European session basically maintains a weak consolidation at a low level. This trend means that the US session may still have room for decline.
Today is different from yesterday. Before the US session yesterday, there was a continuous upward rebound, and the intraday market was somewhat resistant to decline, so the US session is expected to rebound more. However, today's intraday is basically maintaining a weak decline, the rebound is not strong, and the hourly line has fallen more than rising, highlighting that the US session is still falling. As for the position selection, it is still not recommended to chase the short. If it can give the European session high of 3323-3324, it can still continue to be short. The support below is 3287-3270. If it falls below the low of 3260, then pay attention to the top and bottom conversion position of 3245.
XAUUSD – Weekly Outlook (April 28 – May 3)XAUUSD – Weekly Outlook (April 28 – May 3)
Current Structure:
Massive bullish momentum intact — we are still climbing into extreme premium territory.
Price has broken all previous structure highs and is trading well above the last known CHoCH (confirmed weekly bullish flow).
Current Weekly candle is showing minor exhaustion but no clear reversal confirmation yet.
Key Weekly Observations:
Premium Zone: 3350–3500 → extreme overbought territory, where distribution/reversal could begin forming.
Immediate Support: 3110–3150 → previous major liquidity grab + breakout area (could act as reaccumulation if retested).
Unmitigated Zones Below:
~2900–2950 → old FVG left behind (possible bounce if deeper correction happens).
Strong demand clusters still much lower, around 2050–2100 (only relevant if a major cycle shift occurs).
Liquidity and Flow:
Liquidity has been swept above all major highs — now hunting for fresh liquidity pools either at extreme highs (above 3350) or deeper below (below 3200).
Strong liquidity vacuum between 3280 and 3150 zones if a weekly rejection happens.
Bias:
Still bullish but hyper-extended — smart money will likely start hunting liquidity pockets on both sides soon.
Watching for early signs of weekly exhaustion or topping (large wicks, strong engulfing candle).
✅ Weekly Bias: Cautious bullish, watching for early topping patterns
✅ Key Levels to Watch: 3350–3500 (resistance), 3150–3110 (support)
🌟 Final Note for the Community:
We’re flying at premium altitudes — but don’t get drunk on heights! 🛫 Stay sharp, stay humble. Gold doesn’t ask, it takes. Let’s keep mastering the game, one sniper move at a time.
👉 Follow, like, and comment your outlook — let’s grow this smart community together! 🚀✨
#Gold #XAUUSD #SmartMoney #WeeklyOutlook