Next Week Aims for 3300 Break💎 Last week, gold opened gap-up on Monday 🔼 but then trended lower 🔽. However, the 3290-3300 support zone remained robust from Mon-Thu ⚡. It plunged to ~3255 on Fri before rebounding 🌱. Next week's open may surge to 3290-3300 🔥!
🚀 Sell@3260 - 3270
🚀 TP 3280 - 3290 -3300
Accurate signals are updated every day 📈 If you encounter any problems during trading, these signals can serve as your reliable guide 🧭 Feel free to refer to them! I sincerely hope they'll be of great help to you 🌟 👇
XAUUSDK trade ideas
6.27 Gold rebounds and adjusts, don't chase shorts at low levelsGold fell below this week's low of 3295 today. As of now, gold has hit 3285 and is fluctuating. Don't chase the short position and short it when it rebounds. Now you can only wait patiently for the rebound before entering the short position. Be a steady hunter and wait patiently for the appearance of prey!
Gold is now focusing on the short-term suppression of the upper 3301-3306 line, focusing on the suppression of the upper 3314-16 line, and the support below is 3276-80. Short it when it rebounds.
Strategy ideas:
1. Gold rebounds to 3301-3306 line and shorts lightly, rebounds to 3314-16 line to cover short position, stop loss 3324, target 3280-85 line;
XAUUSD Channel Down starting new Bearish Leg.Gold (XAUUSD) has been trading within a 2-week Channel Down, recently rejected on its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). The last Lower High was priced on the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, so currently we are on the ideal level for a new short.
With a 4H Death Cross emerging, we are targeting the 1.382 Fibonacci extension (as the previous Bearish Leg did) at 3210 for the Channel's new Lower Low.
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GOLD Bouncing from Trendline, Breakout Ahead?GOLD BOTTOM IS HERE 🔥
Gold has taken support from the rising trendline and is now close to breaking a key resistance. The chart is showing an ascending triangle, which usually means a big move is coming.
If price breaks above the resistance, we might see a strong rally of 13% or more.
The setup looks positive as long as the support stays strong.
Looks like Gold is ready to shine again!
Retweet if you're bullish.
Like and follow for more updates!
#GOLD TVC:XAU
Gold Holding Strong – Eyes on $3400 and Beyond! (READ)By analyzing the gold chart on the 4-hour timeframe, we can see that after our last analysis, the price corrected down to $3341, then rallied back up to $3399. Currently, gold is trading around $3373, and if it manages to hold above $3355, we can expect further upside movement.
Potential bullish targets are $3400, $3417, $3450, and $3468.
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Jun 30 - Jul 04]Last week, OANDA:XAUUSD fell sharply from an opening price of $3,392/oz to a low of $3,255/oz and closed at $3,274/oz. The reason was that Israel and Iran had officially ceased fire, although negotiations with the US remained difficult. In addition, FED Chairman Jerome Powell reaffirmed that there was no rush to cut interest rates due to high inflation risks. In addition, summer is a period of weak demand for physical gold, continuing to put pressure on gold prices.
In addition, summer is typically the low season for physical gold demand, which could continue to weigh on gold prices.
In addition to the seasonal lull in trading that has affected the gold market, improving economic sentiment as the Trump administration has said there is progress in trade agreements, especially the framework agreement on trade with China, will also continue to negatively impact gold prices next week.
Thus, gold prices next week may continue to be under downward pressure, but the decline may not be too large as gold prices next week are still supported by some fundamental factors.
This week, the US will release the non-farm payrolls (NFP) report and the unemployment rate for June. According to forecasts, NFP may reach 120,000 jobs. If NFP increases higher than expected, the FED will continue to delay cutting interest rates, negatively affecting gold prices next week. On the contrary, if NFP drops sharply below 100,000 jobs, it will increase the possibility of the FED cutting interest rates, helping gold prices rise again next week, but not too strongly.
📌Technically, the gold price closed below $3,300/oz this week, which could pave the way for a drop to $3,200/oz next week, or below that to $3,120/oz. If the gold price rebounds above $3,300/oz next week, it could trigger a recovery to $3,330-$3,360/oz.
Notable technical levels are listed below.
Support: 3,246 – 3,228USD
Resistance: 3,292 – 3,300USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3367 - 3365⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3371
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3178 - 3180⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3174
Lingrid | GOLD Weekly Outlook: Corrective Phase Tests SupportOANDA:XAUUSD experienced a notable pullback this week, retreating from the $3,450 resistance zone as profit-taking emerged following the recent geopolitical rally. The market appears to be entering a healthy corrective phase after the strong upward momentum driven by Middle Eastern tensions and safe-haven demand.
The 4H chart reveals gold testing the critical $3,320 support level, which coincides with the lower boundary of the established upward channel. This corrective move was anticipated after the sharp rally to the resistance area marked as "TOP" on the chart. The current price action suggests a natural retracement within the broader bullish structure.
Technically, the downward trendline from the recent high is being respected, indicating the correction may continue toward the $3,240-$3,270 range before finding stronger support. The flag pattern that previously drove the rally now serves as a reference point for this pullback phase.
Key levels to monitor include the $3,320 immediate support and the more substantial $3,200 level below. A decisive break below these supports could extend the correction further, while a bounce from current levels would reinforce the underlying bullish bias. The market remains within the broader upward channel, suggesting this correction is likely temporary before the next leg higher toward the resistance zone above $3,450.
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments.
GOLD | Pressure Below Pivot – Eyes on 3255 and 3238GOLD | Market Outlook
The overall momentum remains bearish as long as the price trades below the pivot line at 3297.
Currently, the price is attempting to stabilize below 3281, suggesting a potential continuation of the downtrend toward 3270 and 3255.
A confirmed 1H close below 3255 would further strengthen the bearish scenario, opening the way toward 3238.
Sell Setup:
Valid if 1H candle closes below 3281→ Targets: 3270 and 3255
Buy Setup:
Valid if 1H candle closes above 3297→ Targets: 3314
Key Levels:
• Pivot: 3281
• Support: 3255 / 3238
• Resistance: 3297 / 3314
GOLD 1. Final GDP q/q
Actual: -0.5%
Forecast: -0.2%
Previous: -0.2%
The US economy contracted by 0.5% in the first quarter, worse than the expected 0.2% decline, indicating a sharper slowdown than anticipated.
2. Unemployment Claims (Week ending June 21)
Initial Claims: 236,000
Forecast: 244,000
Previous: 245,000
Initial jobless claims fell by 10,000 to 236,000, lower than forecast and near historically low levels, suggesting that layoffs remain relatively subdued despite economic challenges.
Context:
Despite the drop in new claims, continuing claims (people receiving ongoing benefits) rose to about 1.97 million, the highest since November 2021, indicating some softening in the labor market. Economists expect the unemployment rate to edge up slightly to around 4.3% in June from 4.2% in May.
3. Core Durable Goods Orders m/m (May 2025)
Actual: +0.5%
Forecast: +0.1%
Previous: +0.2%
Core durable goods orders, which exclude transportation, rose 0.5% month-over-month, beating expectations and signaling some resilience in business investment.
4. Durable Goods Orders m/m (May 2025)
Actual: +16.4%
Forecast: +8.6%
Previous: -6.3%
Total durable goods orders surged 16.4%, a strong rebound following a prior decline, indicating a pickup in demand for long-lasting manufactured goods.
5. Final GDP Price Index q/q (Q1 2025)
Actual: 3.7%
This measure of inflation in the GDP deflator remains elevated, reflecting persistent price pressures in the economy.
Summary of Market Implications:
The larger-than-expected GDP contraction signals economic weakness, which could increase expectations for accommodative Fed policy.
The drop in initial jobless claims supports the view that layoffs are limited, but rising continuing claims suggest some labor market softness ahead.
Strong durable goods orders point to underlying business investment strength, providing a mixed but cautiously optimistic outlook.
Elevated inflation as shown by the GDP price index keeps inflation concerns alive.
Overall, the data presents a complex picture of a slowing economy with pockets of resilience and ongoing inflationary pressure.
#GOLD
Learn Best Change of Character CHoCH Model in Trading with SMC
Most of the SMC traders get Change of Character CHoCH WRONG!
In this article, I will share with you Change of Character models that have a low accuracy and better to be avoided.
I will teach you the best CHoCH model for Forex Gold trading and show you how to identify it easily.
Let's start with the basic theory first and discuss what Change of Character signifies.
Change of Character in Bearish Trend
In a downtrend, Change of Character CHoCH is an important event that signifies a violation of a bearish trend.
CHoCH is confirmed when the price breaks and closes above the level of the last lower high.
Above, is a text book Change of Character model in a bearish trend.
For the newbie traders, such a price action provides a strong signal to buy while it fact it is NOT .
One crucial thing is missing in this model to confirm a bullish reversal.
According to basic trend analysis rules, we say that the market trend is bullish if the price forms a bullish impulse, retraces and sets a Higher Low HH , forms a new bullish impulse with a new Higher High HH.
Only then, we can say that the market is trading in up trend.
CHoCH model above confirms a bearish trend violation BUT it does not confirm a trend change.
Such a model may easily signify a deeper correction.
Look what happened with GBPNZD.
Though the price formed a confirmed bearish CHoCH, it was a false signal and just an extended correction.
That's a perfect bullish reversal model.
It combines CHoCH and conditions for a bullish trend.
Such a union is extremely accurate in predicting up movements.
Examine a price action on USDJPY.
Not only the price formed a confirmed CHoCH but also we see a start of a new bullish trend.
Change of Character in Bullish Trend
In an uptrend, Change of Character CHoCH is a significant event that signifies a violation of a bullish trend.
CHoCH is confirmed when the price breaks and closes below the level of the last higher low.
Above is a typical model of a bearish CHoCH.
For many traders, that is the signal to open short.
However, it is not that accurate and one important component is missing there.
According to basic price action rules, the market trend is bearish
if the price forms at least 2 bearish impulses with Lower Lows LL and a pullback between them with a Lower High LH.
Only when these 3 conditions are met, a bearish trend is confirmed .
Perfect bearish Change of Character model should include both CHoCH and a bearish trend price action. That will confirm a violation of a bullish trend and start of a new bearish trend.
EURCAD has a very strong potential to continue falling:
not only we see a valid bearish Change of Character but also
a start of a new bearish trend based on a price action.
Next time when you identify CHoCH on forex market, make sure that you check the preceding price action. It will help you to more accurate assess reversal probabilities and make a wiser trading decision.
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Excellent start of E.U. sessionAs discussed throughout my yesterday's session commentary: "My position: I am Highly satisfied with my Profit and will take early weekend break, not catching a Falling knife."
I have monitored the Price-action from sidelines throughout Friday's session as explained above however mid E.U. session I have engaged two #100 Lot Buying orders on #3,278.80 few moments ago and closed both of my Scalps on #3,285.80 with excellent Profit.
Quick update: No Swing orders today, only aggressive Scalps similar to Scalp orders I mentioned above from my key re-Buy points. If #3,300.80 is recovered, newly formed Bullish structure will push for #3,313.80 and #3,327.80 test. If #3,300.80 benchmark is preserved, I will still keep Buying (Scalp only however). I will have Gold's major move revealed after today's session.
GOLD (XAUUSD): Classic Trend-Following Pattern⚠️Gold closed on Tuesday, forming a bullish flag pattern on an hourly chart, indicating a market correction following a strong upward wave.
A breakout above the resistance line with a candle close will likely signal a continuation of the trend, with a high probability of the price rising to at least a new higher high.
However, keep in mind that the price may respect the trend line multiple times and corrections could be prolonged, which is why we depend on a reliable breakout as a trigger.
Gold on relief rallyAs discussed throughout my yesterday's session commentary: Quick update: No Swing orders today, only aggressive Scalps similar to Scalp orders I mentioned above from my key re-Buy points. If #3,300.80 is recovered, newly formed Bullish structure will push for #3,313.80 and #3,327.80 test. If #3,300.80 benchmark is preserved, I will still keep Buying (Scalp only however). I will have Gold's major move revealed after today's session."
Technical analysis: I have been aware that another failed attempt to invalidate #3,272.80 - #3,278.80 local Support zone will most likely result into firm rejection and yet another push towards #3,302.80 psychological benchmark and ultimately the #3,327.80 level which represents Short-term Resistance line which is now invalidated to the upside (as discussed above already). Keep in mind that the current Bullish Short-term set-up can offer a great opportunity for those who missed the last rally to enter at almost (# +1.00%) of the Price so many Sellers which were liquidated will now engage multiple Buying orders so Buying pressure will be significantly Higher. Gold is extending the Trade nicely inside the healthy Hourly 4 chart's Ascending Channel and after failed Support zone reversal. Price-action has even more probabilities now to test #3,352.80 psychological benchmark. Gold is Fundamentally Bullish as well due Tariffs announcement.
My position: I have engaged #4 Scalp orders throughout yesterday's session (all in Profit) and will continue to do so however on the other side (Buying) from my key entry points. Keep in mind that overall trend remains Bullish and Trade accordingly.
THE KOG REPORT - Update End of day update from us here at KOG:
Following on from the KOG report, we said there was a huge caveat to the idea, that being that we will tap into that red box resistance and then make the drop rather than just continuing upside. This move worked out well not only giving the RIP but also terminating at the red box and bias level which gave us the long trade upside to where we are now.
For now we have resistance at the 3395 level which still needs to break upside, while support is the 3370-75 level. Ideally, what we want to see over the Asian session is a break above the 3400 level, then a dip into the 3380-75 level before resuming the path we have anticipated in the report. For that reason, we won't change anything in our plans for now.
Please note, a break below 3370 is needed to change the structure.
Key Levels:
Red box defence 3375-80, needs to be broken
Red box defence 3350, needs to be broken
KOG’s bias of the week:
Bullish above 3340 with targets above 3375✅, 3390✅, 3395✅ and above that 3410
Bearish on break of 3340 with targets below 3330, 3320, 3310, 3306 and below that 3298
RED BOX TARGETS:
Break above 3375 for 3378✅, 3390✅, 3395✅, 3406, 3410 and 3419 in extension of the move
Break below 3365 for 3355✅, 3350✅, 3340, 3336, 3330 and 3323 in extension of the move
Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
It’s the right time to short goldThe daily gold line presents a three-top gathering pattern. The historical trend shows that the 3290-3280 area has triggered technical pullbacks many times, all of which rebounded to around 3350. The current 4-hour chart trend line suppression level coincides with the Fibonacci 0.618 pullback resistance from the previous high of 3450 to 3300 in the 3350-3360 range. This area constitutes the core pressure zone. If the price fails to effectively break through and stand above 3360 when it probes this area again, it is highly likely to replicate the previous two resistance and fall patterns. At that time, short orders will be arranged based on the 3350 first-line resistance area, with the goal of breaking the key support of 3300 and further looking down at the 3280 and 3260 levels. The overall bearish tendency is maintained, and the resistance to rebound is a signal to enter the market and sell short.
Gold recommendation: Gold is short around 3345-3352, target 3330-3320
Bearish Setup for GoldGold is currently in a retracement phase after breaking below the mid Keltner channel zone. The small upward arrow marks this temporary relief rally, which I anticipate will be short-lived.
Price is testing the lower band of the inner Keltner channel after rejecting from the upper zones. The structure suggests a classic lower high formation before a potential major sell-off, targeting the deeper liquidity zones around $3,218 – $3,160 and possibly $3,080 if momentum accelerates.
📉 Bias: Bearish
📌 Invalidation: A clean break and close above the red resistance block (~$3,320+)
📌 Target Zones: $3,218 → $3,160 → $3,080
🔔 Look for volume drop and wick exhaustion confirming the next leg down.
This retracement may offer one final short entry opportunity before a deeper correction unfolds.
GOLD, back at higher base. BUY at 3250 enroute to ath 3500 / 4k.GOLD had a wonderful run this past few seasons grinding up a series of ATH taps every higher baselines since 1500.
After goin to a new parabolic highs of 3500 ATH, GOLD did hibernate a bit and got trimmed back to 3240 levels -- a precise 61.8 FIB tap. This is where most buyers converge, and position themselves on the next run up.
The next ascend series will be far more generous eyeing new higher numbers never before seen. Ideal seeding zone is at the current price range of 3250.
Current higher lows on momentum metrics has been spotted conveying intense upside pressure as it moves forward.
Spotted at 3250
Interim target at 3500 ATH
Long term: 4000
TAYOR.
Trade safely. Market will be market.
Not financial advice.
Waiting for gold price to grow with ADP-NF⭐️GOLDEN INFORMATION:
Gold (XAU/USD) finds it difficult to extend its two-day rally and trades within a tight range during Wednesday’s Asian session, hovering just below Tuesday’s one-week high. A modest rebound in the US Dollar—recovering from its lowest level since February 2022—has put pressure on the precious metal. Additionally, improving market sentiment continues to reduce demand for safe-haven assets like Gold, further limiting its upside.
⭐️Personal comments NOVA:
Steady trendline recovery, sustained buying could move towards 3383 with today's ADP-NF data
⭐️SET UP GOLD PRICE:
🔥SELL GOLD zone: 3382- 3384 SL 3389
TP1: $3370
TP2: $3360
TP3: $3350
🔥BUY GOLD zone: $3312-$3310 SL $3305
TP1: $3320
TP2: $3330
TP3: $3340
⭐️Technical analysis:
Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable BUY order.
⭐️NOTE:
Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well
- take the number of lots that match your capital
- Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account
- Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
XAUUSD: Trend changed to bearish. Significant downside potentialGold turned neutral again on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 49.253, MACD = 18.142, ADX = 16.679) as it crossed below both the 4H MA200 and 1D MA50. The two form a Bearish Cross. Technically a Channel Down has emerged, no different than those that emerged after rejections on the R1 Zone (like now). As long as the 4H MA50 acts as a Resistance and holds, we will be bearish, aiming at the S1 level (TP = 3,245).
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Below of last update of reverse head and shoulder post XAU/USD | 30min | by Mohsen Mozafari Nejad
🔸 **Instrument:** Gold / USD (XAU/USD)
🔸 **Timeframe:** 30min
🔸 **Methodology:** Smart Money Concepts (SMC) + Liquidity + OB + Market Structure
🔸 **Focus:** New Monthly Open Setup
🔍 Market Context:
---
## 🧠 Technical Breakdown:
1. **Strong recovery** after clearing deep liquidity sweep (Head zone)
2. **Bullish BOS** structure confirmed on LTF → Multiple HH and HL formed
3. Price now testing **Key Supply/OB zone at 3300–3315**
4. Above this zone lies a **Strong High (SH) around 3,350**, a potential liquidity magnet
5. Overall bias is bullish unless strong rejection appears from upper OB
---
## 📌 Trade Plan:
| Position | Entry Confirmation Zone | Stop Loss (SL) | Take Profit (TP) |
|----------|--------------------------|----------------|------------------|
|
| Short (scalp only) | Bearish reaction from 3,345–3,350 | Above 3,353 | TP1: 3,310 / TP2: 3,290 |
---
## ⚠️ Risk Factors to Watch:
- 🔺 High-impact USD news (July 1st releases: Manufacturing PMI / employment preview)
- 🔺 Overextension above supply zone without support → trap risk
- 🔺 Bull trap risk if price spikes above 3,340 then sharply reverses
---
## ✅ Summary:
> **Start of July** could fuel volatility and directional momentum.
> The structure is clearly bullish short-term, but upper liquidity zones remain **highly reactive**.
> Smart traders will wait for reaction at the 3,340–3,350 SH zone before overcommitting.
**Structure:** 🔴 bearish momentum
**Efficiency:** ✅ Clean
**Liquidity:** 🔺 Above SH & Below recent HL
📊 Prepared by: **Mohsen Mozafari Nejad**