Phenomenal session yesterdayAs discussed throughout my yesterday's session commentary: "My position: Current sequence is suitable for Scalping only and Scalpers are getting the most returns out of current Price-action. I am Buying every Low's aggressively since Monday's session and will continue to do so as long as #3,327.80 - #3,335.80 Support zone holds."
I have Bought (Scalp) firstly #3,345.80 entry point (many more Scalp orders below on #3,343.80 as well) and closed all on #3,356.80 with excellent Profit. I have Sold #3,373.80 and layered it with #3,382.80 entry point / ultimately closing all orders on #3,368.80 last night / Asian session. Was indeed phenomenal session.
Technical analysis: Gold has made an important Bullish step towards full scale Hourly 4 chartโs reversal as it almost recovered the #3,384.80 pressure point. That makes Hourly 4 chart practically Bullish but leaning on the Neutral side since hard Resistance zone is above / however well Supported within #3,370โs belt, which has held on multiple occasions so far. As mentioned throughout my remarks, Hourly 4 chart is still Bullish as said, but invalidated Descending Channel has expanded giving me Buying signs that Gold may test #3,400.80 psychological benchmark on current Fundamental mix and remember my notes regarding #3,377.80 Resistance (now Support line) importance (I mentioned that if #3,377.80 gets invalidated, Gold can kick-start aggressive upswing towards #3,382.80 first, posing as an strong Resistance then #3,392.80 and #3,400.80 benchmark ahead). Gold was mainly correlated with DX during first #5 Months of the Year (January-May) as there was no shift and probability that June will also be DX Month is #91.99% since Bond Yields were on downtrend, taking strong hammering and broke all Support zones, and Gold was also on Short-term decline which confirms my Gold - DX correlation so look for pointers there. Remember, when you are unsure of the Medium-term direction on Gold always look for clues on DX and Trade accordingly.
My position: As mentioned throughout yesterday's session, I give more probabilities to the upside and will continue with my aggressive Scalping orders / Buying every dip on Gold. #3,377.80, #3,362.80 and #3,352.80 benchmark are valid Support lines. #3,392.80 keeps Gold from testing #3,400.80 benchmark. Trade accordingly.
XAUUSDK trade ideas
GOLD - WAVE 4 CORRECTION TO $2,800 (UPDATE)One important thing to note is that Gold buyers broke above the 0.618 Fib level yesterday, followed by a retest today & currently rejecting back to the upside. This 0.618% Fib zone was previously holding as 'resistance', which could now likely be holding as 'support' for buyers.
It is important to keep an eye out for these small details on market structure, as they could indicate early signs of a trend change.
GOLD GOLD ..first layer support will 3322 100pips drop from yesterday low.
another demand floor will be on the ascending trend line 3310-3313.
economic data print
1:15pm
USD
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change forecast 111K
3:00pm
USD
ISM Services PMI
this most important data print will be the ADP non farm employment change
The forecast for the US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change for May 2025 is approximately 111,000
The ADP report measures private sector employment growth and is released about two days before the official government Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data.
It serves as an early indicator of labor market trends and consumer spending potential.
Aprilโs ADP employment growth was soft at 62,000, reflecting caution amid trade tensions and economic uncertainty.
The May forecast of 111,000 jobs suggests a moderate rebound in private sector hiring.
Summary:
May 2025 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Forecast: ~111,000 jobs
April 2025 Actual: 62,000 jobs
Significance: Indicates expected improvement in US private sector job creation ahead of the official NFP report.
why is ADP Non farm employment change important ???
The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change is considered a leading economic indicator because it provides an early and timely estimate of changes in private sector employment in the United States, typically released two days before the official government Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report. This early insight helps investors, policymakers, and traders gauge the health and direction of the US labor market before the more comprehensive official data is published.
Reasons why ADP Non-Farm Employment Change is a Leading Indicator:
Early Preview of Labor Market Trends: It offers a preliminary snapshot of private sector job creation based on payroll data from around 400,000 US businesses, covering about 20% of the private workforce. This makes it a timely gauge of employment trends ahead of the official NFP report.
Market Impact and Sentiment: Because it signals the strength or weakness of the job market, the ADP report influences market expectations for economic growth and Federal Reserve monetary policy. Strong ADP job growth tends to boost confidence in the economy and can lead to currency appreciation, especially of the US dollar.
Influence on Monetary Policy: The Federal Reserve closely monitors employment data to guide interest rate decisions. The ADP reportโs early indication of employment trends helps anticipate Fed actions, affecting bond yields, currency markets, and broader financial conditions.
Correlation with Official NFP: While not perfectly aligned due to methodological differences, the ADP report often correlates with the official NFP figures, making it a useful forecast tool for traders and analysts.
Summary
The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change is a leading economic indicator because it provides an early, data-driven estimate of private sector employment changes, helping markets anticipate the official NFP report and influencing financial market expectations and policy decisions.
#gold
GOLD Price want to Grow the TopGold prices are currently facing Support around the 3365 level, with a potential correction expected before any further upward movement. While the long-term trend appears bullish, the fundamental backdrop remains mixed, creating uncertainty in market sentiment.
A major focus is the ongoing geopolitical tension between Russia and Ukraine, particularly following the recent escalation over the weekend. This development has increased safe-haven demand for gold, but market participants remain cautious due to conflicting economic signals and central bank policies.
You may find more details in the chart Ps Support with like and comments for more analysis
The Uncertainty of Gold Gold exhibited considerable uncertainty, as sellers pushed the price back to nearly its starting point this week. Is it profit taking? What do institutions know that we don't, as they increased their long positions this week? 81% of institutions are long. So, where the whales are is where I want to be.
Note: This is not advice. This is for educational purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Gold delivering excellent returnsTechnical analysis: As expected yesterdayโs session local Higher Highโs rejection pushed Gold aggressively towards my take Profit of #3,381.80 to form #1-session Lowโs. Traders witnessed Technically driven slide after Fundamentally driven uptrend which I always look to utilize as Shorting is excellent way to make Profits on Gold (mostly Technically on the way down lately from Fundamental upside spikes) since there is lotโs more Technical pointers and traffic in Selling than Buying, as said Bull leaps are usually Fundamentally driven on Gold. Hourly 4 chart is approaching #7-session old Neutral Rectangle however Hourly 4 chart may shake off the last of itโs Neutral values and align with semi-Bullish Fundamental perspective which is approaching #3,400.80 benchmark and local Low's rejection may deliver Buying signal. DX rebounded strongly off itโs local Lowโs and is now in the process of seeking the Resistance. (#1W) Weekly chartโs candle is near a (# +1.91%) close, effectively limiting the losses / however on the other side, Buying pressure is not so strong as it was past few Months and thatโs why you witness such Low Volume movements and aggressive Bearish reversals. Monthly candle is now at (# -0.59%) and the goal is to rise further by closing, extending the Bullish continuity. That is why Traders should observe their gains / losses on a Monthly basis, as despite the Volatility on smaller timeframes as this one, the Medium / Long-term patterns always prevail.
My position: I have Sold Gold throughout yesterday's session from #3,395.80 towards #3,382.80 Support after #3,400.80 benchmark rejected the Price-action and that order delivered biggest Profit on single position in my entire Trading career if I may say (#124.000 Eur). I have re-Bought Gold twice on #3,342.80 and #3,346.80 and closed both orders on #3,354.80 which was excellent way to finish a session. Keep in mind that NFP is ahead on the calendar and keep in mind that I do expect upside surprise which may fuel more Selling action on Gold. However if NFP delivers downside surprise, I am confident that #3,400.80 benchmark will be tested on news aftermath.
XAUUSD H1 Outlook โ Monday, June 2, 2025โEquilibrium Loading โ Breakout or Breakdown?โ
๐ Welcome back traders โ letโs decode the H1 battlefield together.
Gold is currently consolidating just under the 3290โ3300 magnet, after a slow Friday close. The chart shows clear lower highs and rejection from premium, with multiple CHoCHs confirming bearish intent. However, price hasnโt fully broken below key H1 structure yet, holding just above equilibrium support.
Weโre sitting in a coiled market โ liquidity has built on both sides. Monday will likely give us the breakout.
๐น Current Bias
๐ป Bearish bias while under 3308
๐ Structure shows CHoCH โ BOS โ LH, all under premium
๐งญ Price is compressing between 3300 resistance and 3270 support
๐น Refined Structural Zones (Realistic Width)
๐บ Key Resistance Zones (Upside)
Zone Price Range Context
๐บ Minor OB Rejection 3295 โ 3308 Local OB + premium zone โ first reaction area
๐บ Inducement Trap 3315 โ 3335 Clean liquidity pocket โ likely wick spike trap if retested
๐บ Extended Premium Zone 3340 โ 3360 Final resistance from May โ only valid if HH breaks
๐ป Key Support Zones (Downside)
Zone Price Range Context
๐น Equilibrium Hold 3270 โ 3250 Current floor. If broken, momentum shifts hard down
๐ป CHoCH + FVG Fill 3235 โ 3212 BOS zone + inefficiency. Logical sell-side draw
๐ต Discount Demand Zone 3185 โ 3160 Last HL + OB. Major reaction zone for swing reentry
๐น EMA Flow (Momentum Outlook)
โ Price is below all EMAs (5/21/50/100/200) = bearish stacked pressure
EMA100/200 are bending โ momentum is confirming bearish tilt
Only a sharp move above 3308 will flip momentum short-term
๐ง Tactical Scenarios for Monday:
๐ป Sell Bias Active:
Rejection from 3295โ3308 = possible LH โ short down to 3250
Break of 3250 โ continuation leg toward 3212 and 3185
๐ Trap and Flip (Low Probability):
Price breaks above 3308 and holds โ possible squeeze into 3335
Confirm with BOS + bullish PA on M15-H1
๐ Summary:
Gold on H1 is coiled tightly inside mid-premium, and structure is now pointing slightly bearish. If we stay under 3308, the path of least resistance is down. If bulls trap sellers and break above, 3335 becomes the target.
Let price reveal its intent โ you trade from clean structure, not from bias.
๐ฌ Was this helpful?
๐ Follow GoldFxMinds for daily sniper-entry levels, bias shifts, and clean trade maps
๐ Like if you're waiting for confirmation before reacting
๐ Comment below: Will we flush into 3212 โ or spike 3335 first?
See you in the charts.
โ GoldFxMinds
GOLD Price Analysis: Key Insights for Next Week Trading DecisionGold prices surged last week, ending with a strong 3.9% weekly gain, closing around the $3,365 zone after bouncing back with conviction on Friday. In this video, I break down why gold rallied, what key events influenced price action, and how Iโm reading the current chart structure to strategically position for the next move.
Hereโs whatโs driving the gold market right now:
๐ธ Moodyโs U.S. sovereign downgrade reignited safe-haven demand
๐ธ Easing U.S.โChina tensions led to mid-week profit-taking
๐ธ Fridayโs sharp rebound (+1.7% intraday) shows bulls are still in the game
๐ธ Upcoming high-impact events could shake things up again
๐ฏ In this analysis, I walk you through:
๐ธMy technical blueprint (key zones for buyers & sellers)
๐ธMy bullish and bearish scenarios based on the structure on the chart
๐ Donโt forget to like the video in support of my work.
Disclaimer:
Based on experience and what I see on the charts, this is my take. Itโs not financial adviceโalways do your research and consult a licensed advisor before trading.
#GoldAnalysis #XAUUSD #GoldForecast #ForexTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #FedPowell #PCEInflation #FOMCMinutes #GoldPricePrediction #GoldBulls #TradingStrategy #GoldOutlook #USGDP #ForexMentor #PriceActionTrading
Is Gold on the Verge of a Major Correction?
Looking at the bi-monthly chart of XAUUSD, it seems that gold is approaching a potentially deep corrective phase.
Currently, price is hovering near the top of a long-term historical channel that has remained valid since the 1970s.
๐ Key Technical Highlights:
The upper boundary of the long-term channel is acting as a major resistance
Potential bearish divergences are appearing on indicators like RSI
The recent rally has been steep and impulsive โ often a setup for a healthy correction
"Price is currently in the 5th wave of its major bullish cycle, and considering the timeframe of the chart, a deep correction is likely to occur in the coming months."
if you enjoyed this forecast, please show your support with a like and comment. Your feedback is what drives me to keep creating valuable content."
Regards,
Alireza!
GOLD ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone,
Please see the update on our 1H chart route map - playing out exactly as analysed.
We started the week with a bearish gap at 3352 being hit, followed by an EMA5 cross and lock below 3352, which opened up the next level at 3317, also hit perfectly.
Yesterday, we found support above the 3282 retracement level, leading to a solid bounce into 3317. However, there was no EMA5 lock above 3317, and price faced rejection today once again, pushing it back toward 3282.
We are now looking for support to hold above 3282 to give us fresh bounce opportunities and upper Goldturn tests. However, a lock below 3282 will open up lower levels as we move deeper into the retracement range.
We are expecting continued reactions within this retracement range, in line with our plan to buy dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels help us track downward movements and catch bounce setups.
We'll continue to buy dips using our key support levels, targeting 20 to 40 pip moves. As always, each level structure provides consistent bounce zones, offering great opportunities for both entry and exit. If you backtest the levels weโve shared every week over the past 24 months, youโll see how effectively they work with or against short to mid term swings and trends.
Remember:
Swing ranges yield bigger bounces than weighted levels โ thatโs the key difference.
BULLISH TARGET
3389
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3389 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGETS
3428
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3428 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3478
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3478 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3517
BEARISH TARGETS
3352 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3352 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
3317 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3317 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
3282
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3282 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
3233
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3233 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
3185
3146
As always, weโll keep you all updated with real time analysis and management of active setups throughout the week. Thank you for your continued support, your likes, comments, and follows mean a lot!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
THE KOG REPORT - UpdateEnd of day update from us here at KOG:
A good start to the day with us hitting not only the red box target we wanted but completing the Excalibur target that was active giving a nice long. After that, we identified the pull back into the bias level 3305 which only gave us a 50pip bounce into the target. We then said price shouldn't go back to 3310, if it did we would break, which consequently happened, thankfully we had stopped trading and called it a day by then.
The range continues and price is accumulating, this range now with support 3290 and resistance 3310 could be the play towards the end of the session, so anyone long, we would say watch this levels on the red boxes for a break either side.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
Learn What Time Frame to Trade. Gold Forex Trading Basics
If you just started trading, you are probably wondering how to choose a trading time frame.
In the today's post, I will go through the common time frames, and explain when to apply them.
1m; 5m, 15m Time Frames
These 4 t.f's are very rapid and are primarily applied by scalpers .
If your goal is to catch quick ebbs and flows within a trading session, that is a perfect selection for you.
30m, 1H Time Frame
These 2 are perfectly suited for day traders.
Executing the analysis and opening the trades on these time frames,
you will be able to catch the moves within a trading day.
4h, Daily Time Frames
These time frames are relatively slow .
They are mostly applied by swing traders, who aim to trade the moves that last from several days to several weeks.
Weekly, Monthly Time Frames
These time frames reveal long-term historical perspective and are mostly used by investors and position traders.
If your goal is to look for buy & hold assets, these time frames will help you to make a reasonable decision.
๐When you are choosing a time frame to trade, consider the following factors :
1๏ธโฃ - Time Availability
How much time daily/weekly are you able to sacrifice on trading?
Remember a simple rule: lower is the time frame, more time it requires for management.
2๏ธโฃ - Risk Tolerance
Smaller time frames usually involve higher risk,
while longer-term time frames are considered to be more conservative and stable.
3๏ธโฃ - Your Trading Goals
If you are planning to benefit from short term price fluctuations you should concentrate your attention on lower time frames,
while investing and long-term capital accumulation suite for higher time frames.
Time frame selection is nuanced and a complex topic. However, I believe that these simple rules and factors will help you to correctly choose the one for you.
โค๏ธPlease, support my work with like, thank you!โค๏ธ
I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Gold Bearish Outlook | Short Opportunity AheadGold has just tested a major resistance zone at $3,390โ$3,400 and faced a sharp rejection, forming a possible double top. The price is still respecting the parallel ascending channel, but current momentum suggests a bearish move could be underway.
๐ Key Technical Levels:
Resistance: $3,390 โ $3,400 (strong rejection zone)
Support: $3,282 (watch for reaction here)
Channel Structure: Price is still within an ascending channel
๐ Possible Scenarios:
1. Bearish Scenario:
If the price breaks below $3,340 and sustains momentum, we could see a drop to $3,282 support โ a key level to watch for a potential bounce or further breakdown.
2. Bullish Scenario (less likely short-term):
If bulls regain control, watch for a breakout above $3,400, confirming upside continuation.
๐ก Trading Idea:
Currently leaning bearish unless we see a confirmed breakout above resistance. Short setups could be considered on lower timeframes with targets near the support level.
๐ฌ Let me know what you think โ will gold break down or bounce back? ๐
๐ Like & follow for more trade ideas and updates!
#XAUUSD #Gold #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #TradingView #Forex #Commodities
Gold Drops Toward 12-Hour and Daily Support LevelsFollowing the break of the bullish trend on the 8-hour timeframe and a subsequent pullback to the 4-hour resistance zone โ confirmed by a breakdown on the 2-hour timeframe โ we expect the price to move toward the 12-hour and daily support zone around the 2982 level.
Disclaimer: You are responsible for your own trades. Do not risk more than 2% of your account on a single setup.
6/6 Gold Trading StrategyAfter a short rebound, gold is now hovering near key resistance levels.
The critical zone is around 3366 โ if price breaks above this, the next upside targets are 3378โ3388.
However, from a broader perspective, the 4H chart still shows an uncorrected bearish setup.
Without strong buying volume, the price may drop again โ potentially below 3330, or even breach the 3300 level.
โ
๐
Key Data Releases Today:
๐น NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls)
๐น US Unemployment Rate
Both events are expected to bring high volatility, so manage your risk carefully.
โ
๐ My Intraday Trade Plan:
โ
Sell on rallies
๐ฏ Target: around 3330-3290
๐ Only if price reaches that support zone will I consider shifting to a bullish bias
Gold XAUUSD Short 5th May 2025Price is approaching a strong supply zone at 3384โ3386, where weโve previously seen aggressive selling. If we get clear signs of rejection from this level (e.g., wicks, bearish engulfing, or failure to break above), Iโll be looking to enter short positions.
The structure shows a potential lower high forming, and if confirmed, we could see continuation to the downside toward recent support levels.
๐ Trade Signal
Bias: Sell
Entry Zone: 3384โ3386 (on rejection)
Stop Loss: Above 3395
Take Profit Levels:
โ TP1: 3370
โ TP2: 3360
โ TP3: 3345
โ ๏ธ Note: Trade only if rejection is confirmed in the zone (e.g., bearish PA or failed breakout on 5mโ15m).
Gold (XAUUSD) Elliott Wave Outlook: Next Bullish Surge UnderwayGold (XAUUSD) has displayed a strong bullish trend since establishing a low on May 15, 2025, forming a sequence of higher highs that signals further upside potential. The rally from the May 15 low unfolded in a clear five-wave Elliott Wave structure, completing wave 1 at $3365.93. The initial advance, wave ((i)), peaked at $3252.05, followed by a corrective pullback in wave ((ii)) to $3153.47. The subsequent rally in wave ((iii)) reached $3345.40, with a minor dip in wave ((iv)) to $3278.79. A final leg, wave ((v)), concluded wave 1 at $3365.93.
Following the completion of wave 1, a corrective wave 2 developed as a double three Elliott Wave structure. From the wave 1 high, wave ((w)) declined to $3284.40, followed by a recovery in wave ((x)) to $3325.51. The subsequent decline in wave ((y)) bottomed at $3245.20, marking the end of wave 2. Gold then resumed its upward trajectory, initiating wave 3. Within this wave, wave ((i)) peaked at $3331.11, and a pullback in wave ((ii)) found support at $3271.09. The metal has since broken above the previous wave 1 high of $3365.93, confirming the start of wave ((iii)) and signaling further upside.
In the near term, as long as the pivot low at $3246 remains intact, pullbacks are expected to attract buyers in a 3, 7, or 11-swing corrective structure, supporting additional gains. Traders should monitor these levels for potential buying opportunities, with the bullish trend likely to persist as long as key support holds.
Turbulent Week Ahead? Gold Outlook June 9-13, 2025Hey fellow traders,
Let's dive into the OANDA:XAUUSD outlook for the upcoming week, June 9-13, 2025. The recent price action has been a rollercoaster ๐ข, and the next few days promise even more fireworks ๐.
Looking back at the 30-minute chart from May 22 to June 6, gold saw an initial consolidation, then a strong rally to multi-week highs near 3,420. However, this was followed by a sharp, dramatic reversal, pushing prices back below 3,300. This "bull trap" ๐ pattern suggests underlying weakness and potential preemptive market positioning.
Another view on this could be the possibility that a gap on the chart at 3300-3295 of around $5 could get closed. Since strong support is right below this, it could serve as a good launchpad ๐ for an upward rally. Let's see if the upcoming Asia session on Monday triggers this because its only - $14 from $3309.
Key Drivers for the Week Ahead:
๐
June 9, 2025 (Monday)
US-China High-Level Trade Talks Commence in London
High-level delegations from the United States and China began trade discussions in London. This meeting followed an announcement by President Donald Trump on Friday, June 6, 2025, who described a preceding 90-minute phone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping as "very positive".
The US delegation included Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard
Lutnick, and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, reflecting a coordinated approach to addressing complex trade issues. The talks were primarily aimed at resolving the ongoing bilateral trade war, with a particular focus on tariffs and the global supply of critical rare earth minerals.5 While no specific time for the commencement of talks was provided, it is understood they began during London's daytime, approximately (10:12 CEST / โฏ04:12 EDT).
These discussions occurred in the context of a temporary 90-day agreement reached on May 12, 2025, which had seen the US reduce its tariffs on Chinese imports from 145% to 30%, and China reciprocate by lowering its tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10%.9 However, this temporary truce is set to expire in early August, and President Trump had recently accused China of violating the agreement, specifically regarding critical mineral exports. The broader bilateral relationship remains strained by issues extending beyond tariffs, including restrictions on advanced chips, student visas, and concerns over China's state-dominated economic model.
The prompt scheduling of these high-level talks immediately after a leader-to-leader call suggests a tactical move towards de-escalation of immediate trade tensions, aiming to prevent a full-blown trade war. The objective appears to be managing current conflicts rather than achieving a fundamental resolution, especially with the May 12 agreement nearing its expiration. The core disputes, such as control over rare earths and technology, are deeply entrenched and reflect a broader geopolitical competition rather than mere economic disagreements. This pattern of temporary de-escalation followed by persistent underlying tensions indicates a long-term,structural competition. It suggests that trade policy is increasingly intertwined with national security and geopolitical strategy, implying that businesses should anticipate continued volatility and strategic decoupling in certain sectors, rather than a return to pre-trade war normalcy.
Other big movers for gold will be the US inflation reports. ๐ฅ
๐
Wednesday, June 11 (14:30 CEST / 08:30 EDT):
We get the crucial US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data.
Watch for Core CPI (YoY) with a forecast of 2.9% and headline CPI (YoY) at 2.5%.
๐
Thursday, June 12 (14:30 CEST / 08:30 EDT):
The US Producer Price Index (PPI) follows.
Forecasts are for Core PPI (YoY) at 3.0% and headline PPI (YoY) at 2.6%.
๐ These numbers are critical. If inflation comes in hotter ๐ฅ than expected, it will likely strengthen the US Dollar ๐ต and push real interest rates higher ๐, making gold less attractive. This could trigger further declines ๐, especially given the current market structure. Conversely, cooler ๐ง inflation could spark a significant rebound ๐.
Beyond US data, keep an eye ๐๏ธ on speeches from various European Central Bank (ECB) officials throughout the week, including President Lagarde on Tuesday (23:15 CEST / 17:15 EDT). Their collective tone ๐ค could influence EUR/USD dynamics and indirectly impact the US Dollar Index, offering a counterbalance โ๏ธ or amplification to gold's movements.
Key Numbers and Technical Levels to Watch:
Gold is currently sitting on a substantial speculative net long position of 187.9K contracts. This is a massive amount of bullish bets ๐๐, making gold highly vulnerable to rapid liquidation ๐ฃ if the fundamental picture turns sour. A "long squeeze" could amplify any downside move.
Immediate Support: The 3,300 level is paramount. A decisive break below it would signal further weakness. Below that, 3,250 is strong technical support where we saw a bounce previously.
Overhead Resistance: Look for resistance at 3,350-3,360, and then the recent peak of 3,420. Reclaiming these levels would require a significant shift in sentiment.
Expect high volatility โก, especially around the US inflation releases. Trade smart ๐ง , manage your risk โ๏ธ, and stay nimble! ๐
Geopolitical News Landscape ๐
India / Pakistan
The ceasefire from May 10 is holding, but diplomatic relations remain frosty. India has launched a global image campaign to gain support, while Pakistan insists on dialogue and accountability.
Outlook: Without substantial agreements on border terrorism and water issues, tensions will stay latently high, with potential for new escalation risks. โ ๏ธ
Gaza Conflict
Violence escalated again in early June. Israel intensified attacks, killing civilians seeking aid in Gaza City, and at least six people were killed at a distribution point.
Outlook: The humanitarian situation continues to worsen ๐จ, and international mediation efforts are urgently needed. However, an immediate ceasefire seems unrealistic. โ
Russia / Ukraine
In the first week of June, Russia launched one of its largest series of attacks: hundreds of drones and missiles hit Kharkiv and Kyiv, resulting in civilian casualties. Simultaneously, a planned prisoner exchange has stalled.
Outlook: Strategic air attacks will likely continue ๐ฅ, and the prisoner exchange remains deadlocked. Without a diplomatic initiative, the conflict will stay entrenched. ๐ณ๏ธ
U.S.โChina Trade War
Following talks between Trump and Xi, new negotiation rounds are expected in London. China has opened up rare earth exports, a sign of cautious de-escalation.
Outlook: If dialogue channels open ๐ฃ๏ธ, systemic trust could grow, but genuine reforms remain uncertain. ๐ค
๐ Global Trade War
The OECD has lowered its growth outlook to 2.9%, warning of protectionism ๐งฑ and delayed investments. The ECB is also maintaining synchronization with the FED.
Outlook: Without de-escalation, the world faces a global economic slowdown ๐ and permanent fragmentation of supply chains. ๐
๐ Trump vs. Powell
Trump has again complained about the FOMC's hesitancy, nicknaming Powell โToo Late,โ and demanding a full 1% interest rate cut.
Outlook: Pressure is mounting ๐ฃ. Whether the Fed yields depends on if inflation and labor data allow for a loose policy. ๐ฏ
๐ต U.S. Inflation โ May 2025
Forward-looking data shows a weakening services sector and consumer prices rising again as tariffs pass through. Official CPI data for May 2025 will be released on June 11.
Outlook: Higher inflation could halt the Fed's "dereflexion" course โ a dilemma โ๏ธ between growth ๐ and price stability. ๐
Technical View ๐
Regarding the major Head and Shoulders (H&S) reversal pattern on the 4H chart I shared previously, I'd like to explain some new developments that are altering its potential outcome.
Since the price has re-entered and fallen below the neckline, I activated my "second brain cell" ๐ง to guess what could be next. This led me to revise the larger 4-hour chart structure with the adjustments shown in the accompanying image.
As you can also see in the updated version below, a reversed H&S pattern remains a possibility, as the proportions still appear valid. ๐
Potential Scenarios for Gold ๐งฉ
Under this revised idea, Gold could potentially reach the neckline entry at 3397 (+88) from the current price. This is one plausible scenario. โ
Alternatively, the price could drop further to the "Head" at 3120 (-191 from the current 3309), which would, of course, invalidate this H&S pattern. โ
While this is speculative ๐ฎ, given that trading often involves psychological movements and their resulting impacts, I believe this is a favorable approach to forecasting.
Another reason to see it as bullish is the formed standard bull flag ๐ฉ๐.
Please take the time to let me know what you think about this. ๐ฌ
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This is just my personal market idea and not financial advice! ๐ข Trading gold and other financial instruments carries risks โ only invest what you can afford to lose. Always do your own analysis, use solid risk management, and trade responsibly.
Good luck and safe trading! ๐๐
Bullish continuation?The Gold (XAU/USD) has bounced off the pivot and could potentially rise to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 3,348.00
1st Support: 3,285.23
1st Resistance: 3,436.17
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GOLD falls then recovers slightly, markets eye jobs dataMainly due to the strengthening of the TVC:DXY , OANDA:XAUUSD have fallen sharply from a near four-week high, with a one-day drop of nearly $30 on Tuesday and a slight recovery in today's Asian trading session on Wednesday, June 4.
DXY rebounded from its lowest level in more than a month hit earlier in the session on Tuesday and ended the day up 0.6%, which put some minor pressure on gold in yesterday's session. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' Employment and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) released on Tuesday showed that total job vacancies in the United States reached 7.39 million in April, up from 7.2 million in March. Economists had expected job vacancies in the United States to be 7.1 million in April.
OANDA:XAUUSD fell on Tuesday as a surprise rise in U.S. job vacancies boosted risk appetite and helped the dollar strengthen, according to Bloomberg. The rise in job vacancies encouraged investors to believe that the U.S. economy remains resilient despite the threat of U.S. President Trumpโs tariff agenda.
Looking ahead, U.S. employment data, including Fridayโs May nonfarm payrolls report, could help guide the Federal Reserveโs monetary policy, Bloomberg said. Lower interest rates are generally good for non-interest-bearing gold.
Gold traders will be looking ahead to key employment data, including the ADP and nonfarm payrolls reports, to determine the Fedโs policy path.
In terms of technical structure, there are no changes to the chart or previous analysis so readers can review it in the previous publication.
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3412 - 3410โก๏ธ
โ โ Stop Loss 3416
โTake Profit 1 3404
โจ
โTake Profit 2 3398
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3299 - 3301โก๏ธ
โ โ Stop Loss 3295
โTake Profit 1 3307
โจ
โTake Profit 2 3313