Short???Looks like a sick dream. But lets see. We got a gap to fill and now wick on the weekly.
Might be a awesome play for tomorrow. Topside LQ grabbed. Maybe we test 3300 again for the gap fill before moving up or staying in this range
XAUUSDK trade ideas
Daily live trade with XAUUSD in 15m/30m/1h 20250606Daily live trade with XAUUSD in 15m/30m/1h 20250606
Affected by tariffs, gold prices rebounded to above 3,300
Gold finally broke the calm of the past and resumed its upward trend. What happened? This is also thanks to President Trump, who imposed tariffs again over the weekend, and there was also news of air strikes. The combination of the two directly broke the calm of gold prices in the past.
So where can this wave of gold go? Technically, gold 1-hour cycle, maintained fluctuations around 3,348, and the support line is expected to be around 3,330.
Our strategy today is also very simple. As long as the gold price retests around 3,360-3,350, I will go short. Which specific position can stop profit? I will tell my VIP.
GOLD Impact of June 6 Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Data on Fed Rate Decisions
Key Data Points
Non-Farm Employment Change: 139K (vs. 126K forecast, revised April: 147K from 177K).
Unemployment Rate: Steady at 4.2% (matches forecasts).
Average Hourly Earnings: 3.9% YoY (vs. 3.7% expected).
Labor Force Participation Rate: Declined to 62.4% (from 62.6%).
Fed Policy Implications
Labor Market Cooling but Resilient:
Job growth slowed (139K vs. 147K prior), with cumulative downward revisions of 95K for March and April. This signals moderation but avoids a sharp deterioration.
Stable unemployment rate (4.2%) and wage growth (3.9% YoY) suggest the labor market remains tight enough to sustain consumer spending but is losing momentum.
Inflation Concerns Persist:
Sticky Wage Growth: Elevated wage inflation (3.9% YoY) complicates the Fed’s inflation fight, particularly in services sectors.
Productivity-Sensitive Costs: Rising labor costs without productivity gains could pressure corporate margins and consumer prices.
Fed’s Balancing Act:
Near-Term Hold Likely: The Fed is expected to keep rates at 4.25–4.50% in July, prioritizing inflation control over labor market softness.
Rate Cut Odds Shift: Markets now price a ~55% chance of a September cut (up from ~40% pre-NFP), contingent on further cooling in inflation (June 11 CPI data critical).
Market Impact
DXY (Dollar Index): Minimal immediate reaction, but sustained labor market cooling could weaken the dollar if rate cuts gain traction.
Equities: Mixed signals (slower jobs vs. stable wages) may limit gains, though tech and growth stocks could rally on delayed Fed tightening.
Bonds: 10-year yields (4.40%) may edge lower if growth fears outweigh inflation risks.
Conclusion
The Fed will likely delay rate cuts until September unless inflation softens decisively. While job growth is slowing, persistent wage pressures and a stable unemployment rate justify a cautious stance. Traders should monitor June CPI (June 11) and Q2 GDP data for clearer signals.
Summary:
No July cut expected; September cut remains contingent on inflation easing.
DXY range-bound near 98.50–99.50 until CPI release.
stay cautious
#gold
XAUUSD Short idea for todayWe are now in an bearish imbalance in 4H TF and now looking for break of structure on m15 to validate the idea to short as per the chart, still waiting for confirmation in the form of break of structure or 15m imbalance.
Gold Is Likely to Break Below 3300 SoonYesterday, gold rallied up to near 3400 before pulling back, just as we had anticipated. We've repeatedly emphasized that 3400 is a strong resistance level, and those who followed through with short positions likely saw impressive profits.
Today, after a sharp drop, gold has rebounded again and is fluctuating near resistance. Support lies at 3352, and if that breaks, the next downside target is around 3333, followed by a possible move to fill the gap between 3300–3289.
🔍 Trading Logic:
There's still significant selling pressure above 3300, with the gap remaining unfilled.
Once the gap is filled, bulls may regain confidence to push higher — though they still face dense resistance above.
📌 Clear Profit Opportunities:
✅ Short toward the 3289 gap fill
✅ After the gap is filled, consider buying into the bullish rebound
The setup is clear — the key now is timing your entries and managing your positions wisely.
Gold Analysis with Signals
For the beginning of the market, we expect the price correction to continue to the specified support levels (buy signals), which will be completed until the downward channel is broken, and after collecting liquidity, we will continue to see the price rise. The 4-hour minor ceiling still has buyers' liquidity that has not been settled.
XAU/USD H8 AnalysisThe price of Gold against the US Dollar is bullish on the bigger time frame.
Diving into the 8 hour chart, we see that price was correcting in the form of a triangle with a breakout in the early part of this month.
With price retesting the top of the triangle, we may see a rejection and further move to the upside. Watch out for a false break though.
This is an idea of what may happen.
Always trade with a tested and profitable strategy. Use alongside good risk management.
Gold Liquidity run Short Setup Update This video is an update on the Gold setup that was posted on the 4/06/25
I cover the price action and discuss what I think will be occurring from this point onwards as
part of the original trading plan .
GOLD XAUUSDXAU/USD (Gold) and Its Relationship with 10-Year Bond Yield, Bond Price, DXY, Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP), and Carry Trade
1. Gold and 10-Year Bond Yield / Bond Price
Inverse Relationship with Real Yields:
Gold typically moves inversely to real 10-year Treasury yields (nominal yield minus inflation). When real yields rise, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold increases, putting downward pressure on gold prices. Conversely, falling or negative real yields support gold’s appeal as an inflation hedge and safe haven.
Bond Prices Move Oppositely to Yields:
Since bond prices and yields are inversely related, rising bond prices (falling yields) tend to support gold prices, while falling bond prices (rising yields) can weigh on gold.
Current Context:
In mid-2025, 10-year yields have been relatively elevated but real yields remain low or negative due to inflation, supporting gold prices
2. Gold and DXY (US Dollar Index)
Strong Negative Correlation:
Gold and the US Dollar Index (DXY) usually move in opposite directions. A stronger dollar makes gold more expensive in other currencies, reducing demand and lowering prices. A weaker dollar boosts gold by making it cheaper internationally.
Recent Trends:
Trade tensions, US fiscal concerns, and geopolitical risks have pressured the dollar, helping gold rally . The dollar weakness amid tariff escalations and debt worries has fueled gold’s uptrend toward resistance levels
3. Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP) and Gold
UIP Concept:
UIP suggests that currency exchange rate changes should offset interest rate differentials between countries, eliminating arbitrage opportunities. While UIP primarily applies to currencies, it indirectly affects gold since gold is priced in USD and influenced by US interest rates and inflation expectations.
Implication for Gold:
If US interest rates rise relative to other countries, the dollar tends to strengthen (UIP effect), pressuring gold. Conversely, if real rates fall or inflation expectations rise, gold benefits despite nominal rate changes.
4. Carry Trade and Gold
Carry Trade Basics:
Carry trades involve borrowing in low-yield currencies to invest in higher-yield assets. Gold itself does not yield interest, so it is not a direct carry trade instrument. However, the gold carry trade involves borrowing gold at low lease rates and investing proceeds in higher-yielding assets.
Current Viability:
Rising gold prices increase the cost of repurchasing borrowed gold, reducing carry trade profitability. Yet, negative or low real yields and persistent inflation fears maintain some interest in gold-related carry strategies.
Indirect Influence:
Carry trade flows in currencies and bonds affect the dollar and yields, which in turn influence gold prices.
Summary Table
Factor Relationship with Gold (XAU/USD) Explanation
10-Year Bond Yield
Inverse (via real yields) Higher real yields raise gold’s opportunity cost
Bond Price
Positive (inverse to yields) Rising bond prices lower yields, supporting gold
US Dollar Index (DXY)
Negative Strong dollar makes gold more expensive globally
Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP)
Indirect, via currency and rate expectations Rate differentials influence USD strength, impacting gold
Carry Trade
Indirect Currency and yield carry trades affect dollar and rates, influencing gold
Current Market Context (June 2025)
Gold is trading near $3,388 per ounce, supported by a weaker dollar amid trade tensions and US fiscal concerns.
Real US yields remain low/negative, maintaining gold’s safe-haven appeal despite elevated nominal yields.
Geopolitical risks and inflation fears continue to drive demand for gold as a hedge.
Conclusion
Gold’s price dynamics in 2025 are shaped by the interplay of real US interest rates, bond market movements, and the strength of the US dollar. While nominal 10-year yields have risen, low real yields and dollar weakness amid geopolitical and trade uncertainties support gold’s bullish trend. The carry trade and UIP frameworks influence the broader currency and interest rate environment, indirectly affecting gold’s appeal.
#GOLD
XAUUSD Has Bullish Channel breakdown ahead selling strong📉 XAUUSD Alert – Ascending Channel Breakdown Incoming!
Gold is showing strong bearish momentum following a breakdown from the ascending channel on the 1H timeframe. A solid sell entry at 3325, right at the supply zone, is looking 🔥.
🎯 Technical Targets:
1st Target: 3280 – key support
2nd Target: 3250 – deeper support zone
Watch for price action signals around the retracement area for confirmation. Bears are stepping in with force! 🐻
🗣️ Like, Follow & Comment below 💬
📲 Join us for more live updates & smart setups!
— By Livia 😜💎
GOLD Impact of June 6 Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Data on Fed Rate Decisions
Key Data Points
Non-Farm Employment Change: 139K (vs. 126K forecast, revised April: 147K from 177K).
Unemployment Rate: Steady at 4.2% (matches forecasts).
Average Hourly Earnings: 3.9% YoY (vs. 3.7% expected).
Labor Force Participation Rate: Declined to 62.4% (from 62.6%).
Fed Policy Implications
Labor Market Cooling but Resilient:
Job growth slowed (139K vs. 147K prior), with cumulative downward revisions of 95K for March and April. This signals moderation but avoids a sharp deterioration.
Stable unemployment rate (4.2%) and wage growth (3.9% YoY) suggest the labor market remains tight enough to sustain consumer spending but is losing momentum.
Inflation Concerns Persist:
Sticky Wage Growth: Elevated wage inflation (3.9% YoY) complicates the Fed’s inflation fight, particularly in services sectors.
Productivity-Sensitive Costs: Rising labor costs without productivity gains could pressure corporate margins and consumer prices.
Fed’s Balancing Act:
Near-Term Hold Likely: The Fed is expected to keep rates at 4.25–4.50% in July, prioritizing inflation control over labor market softness.
Rate Cut Odds Shift: Markets now price a ~55% chance of a September cut (up from ~40% pre-NFP), contingent on further cooling in inflation (June 11 CPI data critical).
Market Impact
DXY (Dollar Index): Minimal immediate reaction, but sustained labor market cooling could weaken the dollar if rate cuts gain traction.
Equities: Mixed signals (slower jobs vs. stable wages) may limit gains, though tech and growth stocks could rally on delayed Fed tightening.
Bonds: 10-year yields (4.40%) may edge lower if growth fears outweigh inflation risks.
Conclusion
The Fed will likely delay rate cuts until September unless inflation softens decisively. While job growth is slowing, persistent wage pressures and a stable unemployment rate justify a cautious stance. Traders should monitor June CPI (June 11) and Q2 GDP data for clearer signals.
Summary:
No July cut expected; September cut remains contingent on inflation easing.
DXY range-bound near 98.50–99.50 until CPI release.
stay cautious
#gold
GOLD (XAUUSD) 1H Chart | Bullish Breakout Idea With Key Zones > "Gold is showing strong bullish structure on the 1H timeframe. Price is approaching key breakout zones with momentum building. This idea highlights critical support/resistance levels and potential breakout targets. Watch for confirmation before entry."
This is just idea not a financial advice !
Gold Bulls Back in Control After BreakoutHaving broken triangle resistance stemming from the record highs and cleared horizontal resistance at $3367, things are once again looking bullish for bullion. Add in renewed upward momentum in RSI (14) and a bullish MACD crossover, and the preference remains to buy dips and topside breaks.
$3367 now looms as a key level to build bullish setups around, offering a logical area to establish longs with a stop beneath for protection. It would be preferable to see gold retest and bounce off $3367 before entering the trade.
$3434 screens as an initial upside target, with a clean break likely to put gold on a collision course with the record highs at $3500.
Good luck!
DS
Gold hourly chart bears dominateFrom the gold 1-hour K-line chart, the current price continues to be suppressed by the key resistance level of 3325. This Friday, the Asian and European trading sessions showed a clear downward trend, reaching a low of 3271. The rapid rebound on Thursday easily induces investors to chase the rise, but the decline on Friday once again shows that there is a major market wash-out behavior. Given that the overall weak consolidation pattern on Friday is expected to face new downward pressure at the beginning of next week. At present, the gold 1-hour moving average system has turned to a short arrangement, and a golden cross signal has not yet been formed, indicating that the short momentum is continuing to accumulate. Therefore, I suggest adopting a rebound short trading strategy. If the price fails to break through the 3310 resistance level after the rebound, you can consider establishing a short position near this position next week to seize the opportunity to continue the short trend. Operational suggestions: Consider the layout of short orders after the price rebounds to the 3308-3312 range. This key area needs to be paid special attention.
GOLD (XAU/USD) Imminent long opportunitiesThis week, my focus for GOLD is on potential long opportunities around the current price level. Price is sitting within a strong area of demand, so my plan is to wait for signs of accumulation and a clear slowdown in bearish momentum before considering any entries.
Ideally, I’d like to see the Asia low swept, which currently lies in the middle of the zone — that would offer even stronger confirmation for a buy setup.
If this current zone doesn’t hold, I have a well-defined 9H demand zone around the 3,220 level, which sits in a more discounted area and aligns well with the overall bullish trend on the higher timeframes.
Confluences for GOLD Buys:
- Clean major daily demand that caused a change of character to the upside
- Plenty of liquidity above and an unmitigated supply higher up
- This is a pro-trend trade, aligning with overall higher timeframe bullishness
- DXY has been bearish over the past few weeks, supporting gold upside
P.S. If price respects this current demand and moves higher, we may see a short-term reaction from the 3H supply zones above — but we’ll monitor price action and adjust accordingly.
Have a great trading week
Gold (XAU/USD) - 8H Time Frame Analysis - High Probability setup🔍 Bias: Strong Bullish Reversal from Demand (Wave 5 expected)
📌 Key Confluences:
Wave (4) retracement tapped into major demand zone and sell-side liquidity pocket.
Held support above the 200 EMA and dynamic cloud zone.
Volume spike near support shows accumulation by strong hands.
Wave (3) had strong momentum – wave (5) could extend to 4,000+ levels.
🎯 Trade Idea:
Buy Gold (XAU/USD) at 3,180 – 3,220
Stop Loss: Below 3,100 (invalidation of structure + trendline)
Take Profit: 3,950 – 4,050 (based on wave (5) projection)
⚠️ Risk Note: Wait for a bullish engulfing candle or volume confirmation above 3,250 if conservative.
This setup is a textbook bullish continuation off a major correction, supported by clean structure, liquidity sweep, and wave alignment — making it a prime high-probability buy for the next leg up.
GOLD Impact of June 6 Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Data on Fed Rate Decisions
Key Data Points
Non-Farm Employment Change: 139K (vs. 126K forecast, revised April: 147K from 177K).
Unemployment Rate: Steady at 4.2% (matches forecasts).
Average Hourly Earnings: 3.9% YoY (vs. 3.7% expected).
Labor Force Participation Rate: Declined to 62.4% (from 62.6%).
Fed Policy Implications
Labor Market Cooling but Resilient:
Job growth slowed (139K vs. 147K prior), with cumulative downward revisions of 95K for March and April. This signals moderation but avoids a sharp deterioration.
Stable unemployment rate (4.2%) and wage growth (3.9% YoY) suggest the labor market remains tight enough to sustain consumer spending but is losing momentum.
Inflation Concerns Persist:
Sticky Wage Growth: Elevated wage inflation (3.9% YoY) complicates the Fed’s inflation fight, particularly in services sectors.
Productivity-Sensitive Costs: Rising labor costs without productivity gains could pressure corporate margins and consumer prices.
Fed’s Balancing Act:
Near-Term Hold Likely: The Fed is expected to keep rates at 4.25–4.50% in July, prioritizing inflation control over labor market softness.
Rate Cut Odds Shift: Markets now price a ~55% chance of a September cut (up from ~40% pre-NFP), contingent on further cooling in inflation (June 11 CPI data critical).
Market Impact
DXY (Dollar Index): Minimal immediate reaction, but sustained labor market cooling could weaken the dollar if rate cuts gain traction.
Equities: Mixed signals (slower jobs vs. stable wages) may limit gains, though tech and growth stocks could rally on delayed Fed tightening.
Bonds: 10-year yields (4.40%) may edge lower if growth fears outweigh inflation risks.
Conclusion
The Fed will likely delay rate cuts until September unless inflation softens decisively. While job growth is slowing, persistent wage pressures and a stable unemployment rate justify a cautious stance. Traders should monitor June CPI (June 11) and Q2 GDP data for clearer signals.
Summary:
No July cut expected; September cut remains contingent on inflation easing.
DXY range-bound near 98.50–99.50 until CPI release.
stay cautious
#gold
Gold Sell Outlook After gold created a record high. It started to retrace, but once again buyer took control of the market; however, the sellers waited for another opportunity to load
Risk no more than one percent
Follow risk management
Break out confirmed. Expect some retraces on the way up . Enter on dips . 3400-500 are next targets .
Gold bulls are accumulating momentum, and bulls are counterattac
Gold head and shoulders bottom pattern is ready to go, and bulls are aiming at the key breakthrough of 3325
Market review
Last Friday, gold showed a typical shock wash pattern:
The Asian and European sessions were supported by the 4-hour head and shoulders bottom pattern, and stabilized several times in the 3285-3290 area, but were constrained by the large cycle trend to suppress 3325 (actual high point 3322);
Institutional buying intervened during the US trading session, and it quickly dropped to 3283 and then pulled up 30 US dollars to 3306, but it smashed the market again in the late trading and broke through 3280 to 3271, and finally closed above 3280, forming a "break to lure shorts" signal.
Key technical signals
Weekly level:
The big positive line in the previous week laid the bullish foundation, and the negative closing last week was a normal correction. This week, pay attention to the 10-day moving average support 3270 and the 5-week moving average buying 3295. If it stabilizes, it is expected to restart the rise.
Daily pattern:
The price continues to run near the middle Bollinger line, and the long and short directions are pending, but the large-cycle support and suppression are gradually narrowing, indicating that a breakthrough is imminent. The right shoulder of the head and shoulders bottom is built at 3285. If the pattern is established, the theoretical increase will be at least 50 US dollars (the target is 3350-3370 after breaking through 3325).
4-hour head and shoulders bottom structure:
Left shoulder 3285-right shoulder 3285 form symmetrical support, and the neckline position 3325 is the key breakthrough point for bulls. After breaking through 3280 at the end of Friday, it was quickly recovered, confirming the nature of the wash, and the short-term moving average system was glued together, ready to go.
Trading strategy
Bull layout:
Go directly to the 3295-3300 area during the day, defend below 3280, and the first target is 3320-3325;
If it breaks through 3325 strongly, you can add more positions to chase more, looking up to 3340-3350, and the ultimate target is 3370 (need to cooperate with non-agricultural data catalysis).
Risk warning:
If it unexpectedly falls below the 3270 neckline support, the pattern will be invalid and it is necessary to turn to the idea of oscillation.
Conclusion: Gold is in the key accumulation stage of bulls, and the explosive rebound of the head and shoulders bottom pattern may start at any time. Traders need to keep a close eye on the 3325 breakthrough signal and grasp the trend.
Gold turns lower despite big silver breakoutGold has turned lower on the day, slipping after it failed to hold above the key $3400 resistance level. Despite a major breakout in silver, gold couldn't ride the wave, turning negative as risk sentiment improved on news of a "very positive" Trump-Xi call and renewed US-China trade talks.
The move also came alongside firmer commodity currencies and a rebound in USD/JPY, adding further pressure on the yellow metal.
Technically, yesterday’s inside bar low at $3343 is now the immediate bearish target, with further downside potential toward the $3320–$3330 support zone. If the recent swing low near $3250 breaks, bulls could be in real trouble.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
D1 looking BullingGold on Daily TF looking buy till 3,780$ per ounce on 4h it’s on strong Support zone.!
Let see on monday what will do.!
Note: it’s not financial advice, Trade your own.
