Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD August 1, 2025📊
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🔍 Momentum Analysis:
• D1 Timeframe:
Momentum has reversed to the upside. Based on this signal, we expect a bullish trend to continue for the next 5 daily candles — likely until mid-next week.
• H4 Timeframe:
Momentum has also turned upward → This suggests that from now until the U.S. session, the price will likely continue to rise or consolidate with an upward bias.
• H1 Timeframe:
Momentum is currently turning down → We anticipate a short-term corrective move. We should wait for H1 to enter the oversold zone and give a bullish reversal signal before looking for long entries.
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🌀 Wave Structure Analysis:
The current wave structure remains complex and lacks clear confirmation. Thus, the current wave labeling should be considered provisional. However, the wave count has not been invalidated, and D1 momentum supports a bullish outlook — so we continue to maintain our wave structure bias.
Important Note:
Wave (C) in red appears relatively short. This leaves open the possibility that the price may continue lower, targeting:
• ⚠️ 3246
• ⚠️ 3200
→ This scenario will be triggered if price breaks below 3268, especially given today's Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) report.
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📌 Two Possible Wave Scenarios:
1. Scenario 1: Black Waves 1 – 2 – 3
o Wave 1 (black) is complete.
o We are now in Wave 2 (black) → Preparing for Wave 3.
o Wave 3 tends to be strong, impulsive, and sharp with large candle bodies.
o Target: 3351
2. Scenario 2: Black ABC Correction
o The market is currently in Wave B (black).
o Potential target for Wave C: 3328
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🛡 Support Zones & Trade Strategy:
• Support Zone 1: 3290 → A good area for potential buying, but we must wait for H1 to enter the oversold region and show a bullish reversal.
• Support Zone 2: 3275 → Deeper buy zone if the price corrects further.
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💡 Trade Plan:
📍 Option 1 – Buy Limit:
• Buy Zone: 3290 – 3289
• Stop Loss: 3280
• Take Profit 1: 3309
• Take Profit 2: 3328
• Take Profit 3: 3351
📍 Option 2 – Buy Limit:
• Buy Zone: 3275 – 3273
• Stop Loss: 3265
• Take Profit 1: 3309
• Take Profit 2: 3328
• Take Profit 3: 3351
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📎 Notes:
• Experienced traders should wait for clear confirmation signals on H1 before entering trades.
• New traders may consider using limit orders in the proposed buy zones.
