XAUUSD Gold Correction Movesit s a correction, it s messy, it is complicated but also it is necesery, so this is a sell until the brake of channel, until probably next week friday or so.. i expect 3251-3205 or maybe little bit lower targets
XAUUSDK trade ideas
Gold in a Shifting Macro Landscape Fundamentals First: Why is Gold Falling While DXY is Too?
Normally, gold and the U.S. dollar share an inverse relationship (which means, when DXY weakens, gold rises). But recently, this correlation has broken down, and that divergence is a loud macro signal.
What’s Happening:
Trade Deal Optimism:
Headlines suggest the U.S. is nearing a resolution with China and other partners. With reduced geopolitical tension, investors are reallocating from safe-haven assets like gold into risk-on trades like equities and crypto.
Iran-Israel Ceasefire:
The temporary cooling of conflict has revived risk appetite. Traders are rotating out of war hedges (like gold and oil) and into tech, growth, and EM plays.
Real Yields Still Elevated:
Despite a softening Fed narrative, U.S. real yields remain positive, keeping pressure on non-yielding assets like gold. The fact that gold couldn't rally even as the 10-year note softened post-Moody's downgrade could be telling.
My Perspective:
This is the first clear signal in months that geopolitical hedging may have peaked. When gold decouples from its safe-haven narrative despite macro uncertainty, that often precedes a structural rotation phase, especially if institutional flows favor equities.
Technical Breakdown
Gold has broken below its 50-day SMA at $3,322 and is trading in the lower third of its 3-month range. While the daily candles show increasing selling pressure, especially on lower highs (a sign of weakening bullish momentum)
RSI : Falling toward 40, with no bullish divergence yet.
Support Level : $3,176: Previous swing low
Resistance Level : $3,444: previous swing high
What This Move Might Be Telling Us
When gold sells off on dollar weakness and geopolitical calm, the market isn’t just relaxing. It is rotating. The de-grossing of gold-heavy hedges: Some hedge funds may be taking profit on gold-heavy exposure from Q1’s rally.
Rise of risk appetite despite cracks: Markets are forward-pricing trade peace and earnings resilience, possibly too early. Gold might not be in trouble, but it’s on the bench. Unless something reignites fear (e.g., Fed policy mistake, Middle East flashpoint, or economic shock), capital may stay elsewhere.
XAUUSD 4hour TF - June 29th, 2025XAUUSD 4hour Neutral Idea
Monthly - Bullish
Weekly - Bullish
Daily - Bullish
4hour - Bearish
Gold has been on the rally of a century for a while and isn’t showing too many signs of slowing down long term. For now we do have a couple opportunities I can bring to your attention.
4hour bearish continuation - For this to happen we would like to see price action come back to our pocket of confluence near the 3,320.000 level followed by bearish conviction. If this happens look to target lower toward major support levels like 3,225.500.
4hour trend reversal - If we are to see a reversal of the 4hour trend we would need to see price action pop back above the 3,320.000 resistance area. Look for strong bullish conviction above this level and target higher toward appropriate levels of resistance.
Analysis of Gold's Opening Market Strategy on MondayOn last Friday, both the data and news fronts were bearish, leading to a step-by-step decline in gold prices. The bears completely dominated the market, and the feeble rebound made it difficult for long-position holders to exit. Gold trended lower in a volatile and slow decline, rebounding only to a high of 3,321 before plummeting all the way, consecutively breaking through the 3,300 psychological barrier, the 3,280 support level, and the daily trend line.
For the trend at next week's opening, the first target is to observe whether the 3,270 support level stabilizes and triggers a rebound. This level is not only a technical support but also a position where long positions can be considered for deployment. Market laws show that a rebound often follows a unilateral downtrend, and this area may trigger a price recovery. If the key support is broken, the downtrend is likely to continue, with the next focus on the 3,250-3,245 support zone.
In terms of operations, it is recommended to maintain a bearish strategy of "selling on rallies," with key attention paid to the resistance area of 3,313-3,321. Short positions should be deployed by relying on this level.
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Trading Strategy:
sell@3300-3295
TP:3250-3260
XAUMO REPORT: XAUUSD WEEKLY ANALYSIS
Period: Monday June 30 – Friday July 5
Focus: US Independence Day (July 4), NY Market Closure Impact
🟢1. Price Action Context
Last Week (ending June 28):
Weekly bearish engulfing closed near the lows (~3,250 area).
Series of failed rallies above 3,330.
Price compressed in a tight lower range—distribution, not accumulation.
Monday June 30 – Friday July 5:
Market begins in a low-confidence, low-volume environment.
Tuesday–Wednesday: traders will be positioning ahead of July 4 closure.
Thursday (July 4): NY market closed—no COMEX metals futures settlement.
Friday (July 5): NY market reopens—liquidity and volume surge back in.
🟡 2. Range, Support & Resistance
Composite Volume Profile:
VAH: ~3,410
POC: ~3,330 (where the heaviest volume has been transacted)
VAL: ~3,250 (final defense)
Support:
3,250: major structural shelf
3,200: next key liquidity target
Resistance:
3,330–3,350: loaded supply zone
3,390–3,420: overhead liquidity from prior weeks
Interpretation:
Price under POC, hugging VAL, is bearish.
Acceptance under 3,250 sets up a vacuum to 3,180–3,200.
🔵 3. Volume Footprint and Delta
Footprint Characteristics:
Strong negative delta (-21K) as price approached 3,250.
Buyers unable to lift offers at 3,300+.
Repeated ask dominance = supply persistence.
Institutional Read:
They’re selling into every bounce, and liquidity thinness around July 4 increases stop-hunt potential.
🟣 4. Trend and Wave Structure
Weekly trend: bearish
Daily trend: bearish with lower highs and lower lows
Wave count:
Wave 1: 3,500 ➡ 3,273
Wave 2: retrace ~3,330
Wave 3: active—projected target 3,180
🟤 5. Stop Hunt Zones
Above:
3,330–3,350: obvious short stops and breakout buy stops.
Below:
3,250: stop cluster from dip buyers and trapped longs.
Expected Behavior:
Institutions use Wednesday and low liquidity Thursday to spike stops before the real move on Friday.
Stop Hunt Scenario:
July 3–4: quick liquidity sweep above 3,330.
July 5 (Friday): NY reopen—supply steps in, drives price back down.
🟢 6. Market Closure & Liquidity Impact
NY Market Closure Schedule:
July 4 (Thursday):
NY COMEX metals closed for Independence Day.
Forex open but liquidity ~40% of normal.
Price can move erratically with minimal volume.
July 3 (Wednesday):
Early close in many US desks.
Position squaring—thin books.
July 5 (Friday):
Liquidity flood back in—true directional follow-through likely.
Implications:
Avoid heavy positioning during July 4 closure.
Expect false breakouts and “ghost candles”.
Major moves likely Friday July 5 during NY session.
🟠 7. Psychological Dynamics
Retail:
FOMO if price spikes above 3,330 on low liquidity.
Fear if price knifes under 3,250 without volume confirmation.
Institutions:
Use the holiday to:
Clear out stops.
Create liquidity pools.
Accumulate positions for Friday’s push.
🔴
8. Tangible Day-Trader Scenarios
🟢 Scenario A: Pre-Holiday Stop Hunt Trap
When: July 3–4
Price spikes over 3,330 on low volume.
Footprint shows negative delta quickly after.
Execution:
Sell limit ~3,340.
SL: 3,375.
TP: 3,200.
Note: Keep size reduced—thin conditions are volatile.
🟣 Scenario B: Post-Holiday Breakdown
When: Friday July 5
NY opens, volume returns.
Price fails to reclaim 3,250 after test.
Execution:
Sell stop 3,249.
SL: 3,310.
TP: 3,180.
Scale in as confirmation strengthens.
🟠 Scenario C: Holiday Range
When: July 4–early July 5 pre-NY
Price likely ranges 3,250–3,330.
Avoid entries unless volatility contraction ends with volume breakout.
🟡 9. Hypothetical Institutional Trade Plan
✅ Order Type: Sell Stop
✅ Entry: 3,249
✅ Stop Loss: 3,310
✅ Take Profit: 3,180
✅ Position Size: Max 0.5–1% account risk
✅ Trigger: NY session reopens Friday with volume confirmation
✅ Confidence: 85% (post-holiday breakdowns historically have high follow-through)
🟢 10. The Executive Recap
✅ Timeframe:June 30–July 5
✅ Trend:Weekly/Daily bearish
✅ Volume:Negative delta clusters
✅ Stop Hunts:
3,330–3,350 (trap)
3,250 (flush)
✅ Liquidity Event:July 4 closure reduces liquidity by ~60%
False moves likely
Major move probable Friday NY session
✅ Execution:
Low liquidity: reduced size
Confirmation: delta + volume
No chasing pre-closure
#GoldTrading #XAUUSD #ForexTrader #PriceActionTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #VolumeProfile #FootprintAnalysis #InstitutionalTrading #DayTrading #MarketAnalysis #ForexSignals #ComexGold #TradingStrategy #MarketPsychology #LiquidityTraps #StopHunt #NYMarketClosure #July4Trading #MetalsMarket #TrendAnalysis #WaveAnalysis #SupplyAndDemand #SmartMoney #ForexEducation #CMEGroup #TradingMindset #RiskManagement
⚠️ Disclaimer : This is a purely educational scenario. You are the only one responsible for your risk.
Report - 27 june1.
Bond Market Exodus: Why Investors Are Ditching US Long-Term Debt
In Q2 2025, net outflows from US long-dated bond funds hit $11 billion, marking the fastest pace since early 2020. This comes despite more than $39 billion pouring into short-dated funds, which are still yielding attractive real returns due to the Fed's high policy rate.
This flight from the long end is not just about yield differentials — it’s a clear repricing of sovereign risk and fiscal sustainability. The market is beginning to fear that the US is no longer a guaranteed safe haven at the long-duration end of the curve. President Trump’s renewed tax policies — projected to add trillions to the national debt — are weighing on confidence, while incoming tariffs and the risk of structurally higher inflation amplify concerns.
“There is a lot of concern domestically and from the foreign investor community about owning the long end of the Treasury curve.” – Bill Campbell, DoubleLine
Market Implication: The term premium is re-emerging — longer bonds must offer significantly higher yields to attract buyers. In real terms, longer-dated Treasuries are down ~1% this quarter, clawing back losses after tariff-induced volatility in April.
Strategic Allocation:
Stay overweight short-duration debt (SHY, BIL, floating-rate notes) for yield preservation and minimal duration risk.
Avoid duration extension. TLT, ZROZ, and long-dated corporates may face additional downside as issuance ramps and demand fades.
Consider non-dollar fixed income exposure (e.g., EU sovereigns, South Africa, Brazil), particularly where inflation targeting credibility is rising.
Macro Impact:
This shift jeopardizes debt affordability. With $33 trillion in debt and rising interest expense, the US could face debt spiral risks unless inflation softens or fiscal discipline returns. An elevated term premium can ripple into mortgages, corporate borrowing, and municipal finance, potentially crowding out private investment.
2.
Geopolitical Tensions: Iran's Nuclear Program and the Market's Response
Despite US claims of obliterating Iran’s nuclear capabilities in recent strikes, preliminary European intelligence indicates Iran’s 408kg stockpile of highly enriched uranium remains largely intact. It was reportedly dispersed before the attacks — undercutting the narrative of complete neutralization.
President Trump’s remarks, suggesting “nothing was taken out” of the main Fordow facility due to logistical constraints, reflect a public relations overstatement rather than a decisive strategic victory. While US defense officials stand by the attack’s symbolic impact, reports suggest the nuclear program was set back by months, not years.
“Trump exaggerated because he needed to... Anyone who heard his remarks could tell there was a different reality.” — Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
Market Implication:
The gold price remains elevated, closing at $3,328.22, up 0.15% on the day, and +26.81% YTD — a clear hedge against geopolitical instability.
Oil markets initially spiked but reversed as the Israel-Iran ceasefire held. Brent Crude ended at $67.14, down -6.1% over the week.
Defense stocks, particularly in US and Israeli names, are seeing flows as investors anticipate further defense budget expansions.
Strategic Allocation:
Hold or overweight gold (GLD, XAUUSD) in strategic portfolios as a volatility hedge.
Avoid chasing oil at interim highs unless further strikes materialize — use energy exposure as a short-term trade, not a structural bet.
Monitor Iranian retaliation risk and its effect on shipping lanes, which would impact insurance costs and transport-linked equities.
Macro Impact:
With Iran's capacity largely intact, nuclear diplomacy is effectively frozen. The uncertainty adds to regional instability, and markets may underprice the risk of a re-escalation. Meanwhile, continued weapons development forces global powers to shift attention (and potentially resources) away from economic diplomacy.
3.
US Export Collapse: Trade Policy Bites the Domestic Economy
In May, US goods exports fell by $9.7 billion (–5.2%), marking the largest monthly decline since the pandemic crash in 2020, according to the Census Bureau. Exports totaled $179.2 billion, sharply down from April’s figures.
This contraction followed President Trump’s "Liberation Day" tariff blitz, which spooked global trading partners. Despite some tariff suspensions, others — such as a blanket 10% duty and sector-specific metals tariffs — remain active.
“Amid the de-escalation phase of the tariff story, we are now seeing an unwind in both imports and exports.” — James Knightley, ING
Key Export Drivers:
Industrial supplies (crude oil, metals): Down 13.6% in May after a 16% surge in April.
Vehicle exports: Rebounded +3.5% after a 20% drop in April.
Trade deficit: Widened to $96.6 billion, above expectations.
Practical Market Implications:
Logistics & industrial names (FedEx, Caterpillar) face short-term margin pressure.
Commodities sensitive to trade flows — particularly metals — could see softening demand (watch steel and copper ETFs like SLX and COPX).
Dollar exposure may become more volatile as lower exports pressure the current account, contributing to a weaker dollar narrative.
Broader Economic Impact:
With inventories full and international demand softening, US manufacturing will decelerate.
Capex and employment in export-sensitive sectors are at risk if the trade environment doesn’t stabilize.
Investor Strategy:
Short-term caution on transportation (e.g., FedEx reported a sharp drop in China-US freight).
Reallocate toward domestic-facing sectors (utilities, consumer staples) that are more insulated from trade.
Currency traders may view this as a signal to fade the USD if combined with Fed dovishness.
4.
US Debt Avalanche: The Bond Exodus and What It Means for Markets
Investors are rapidly fleeing long-term US bonds, with net outflows reaching $11 billion in Q2, the sharpest retreat since early 2020, according to EPFR data. This comes amid growing concern over the US’s ballooning debt load, worsened by Trump’s proposed tax cuts and trade tariffs.
“It’s a symptom of a much bigger problem... concern about owning the long end of the Treasury curve.” — Bill Campbell, DoubleLine
Why It Matters:
Trump's tax plan is forecast to add trillions to federal debt, compelling the Treasury to issue a flood of bonds.
Simultaneously, tariffs are feared to fuel inflation, which erodes bond values — especially those with long durations.
Market Movement:
Long-term US debt fell ~1% in Q2 (Bloomberg index).
In contrast, short-term US bond funds gained $39 billion in inflows, driven by high yields at the front end of the curve.
“With inflation still above target and heavy government supply, this is driving skittishness about the long end.” — Robert Tipp, PGIM
Practical Investment Outlook:
Expect higher yields at the long end of the curve if debt issuance remains elevated and inflation expectations rise.
Flattening yield curve risk if short-end rates remain high while long-end selling continues.
Duration-sensitive portfolios (e.g. pensions) may suffer performance drag unless repositioned.
Global Spillovers:
A weaker long bond market raises benchmark rates globally, making it costlier for emerging markets to borrow.
Foreign investors (e.g., Japan and China) may diversify out of Treasuries, potentially moving capital into higher-yield EM debt or European assets.
The sell-off contributes to dollar weakness, especially when coupled with trade disruptions and Trump’s criticism of the Fed.
Investor Strategy:
Reduce duration exposure; consider floating-rate notes or shorter-dated fixed income instruments.
Explore international bonds, especially EM local currency debt, which is currently outperforming.
Use steepening yield curve trades (e.g., 2s/10s steepeners) as a way to hedge fiscal risks.
5.
Iran’s Nuclear Resilience: What Intel and Markets Tell Us
Despite claims from President Trump that Iran’s nuclear capabilities were “obliterated” in recent airstrikes, early intelligence assessments suggest otherwise. According to European and US officials, Iran’s 408kg stockpile of near-weapons-grade uranium remains largely intact, having been dispersed to other locations before the strikes.
“It did not achieve anything... Trump exaggerated.” — Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
Strategic Interpretation:
US and Israeli strikes targeted Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan — key nuclear infrastructure.
While significant damage occurred, no total structural collapse was confirmed.
This reinforces that Tehran maintains breakout capacity, and could resume enrichment rapidly if it chose to.
“The nuclear programme suffered enormous damage... but not complete destruction.” — Rafael Grossi, IAEA
Market Impact and Geopolitical Outlook:
The revelation that Iran’s uranium reserves survived the assault reduces confidence in the effectiveness of US deterrence.
Oil markets remain unfazed. Traders priced in the symbolic nature of Iran’s missile response and read the US-Israel actions as limited in strategic disruption.
Brent crude fell sharply by 6.1% to $67/bbl post-ceasefire — evidence markets anticipate no extended supply shock.
What to Expect:
Volatility premium on oil is falling. No major disruption to Strait of Hormuz = no major repricing.
Increased likelihood of backchannel diplomacy, especially as Tehran seeks to assert survival and avoid regime destabilization.
However, shadow escalation (e.g., cyber, proxy strikes) remains plausible.
Practical Asset Implications:
Oil traders are in sell-the-spike mode: Risk-on reactions are now short-lived.
Defensive commodity plays (e.g., gold) saw a pullback as perceived geopolitical risk faded.
Military-industrial equities may experience cooling momentum unless new threats emerge.
Risk of sanctions rollbacks or renegotiations could reprice energy and emerging market assets tied to Iran’s trade (e.g., India, China).
6.
Export Shock: Tariffs Bite into US Trade Performance
US goods exports plummeted by 5.2% in May, marking the sharpest drop since 2020, as President Trump’s aggressive “Liberation Day” tariff strategy triggered a major disruption in global demand for American goods. Total exports fell to $179.2bn, down $9.7bn from the prior month.
Breakdown:
Industrial supplies (including oil and metals): –13.6%
Vehicles: +3.5% (recovering from a –20% collapse in April)
Trade deficit widened to $96.6bn, beating Wall Street expectations.
“This is the tariff shock starting to filter into real data.” — ING’s James Knightley
Economic Implications:
Tariff retaliation and inventory overhang are key drivers of the export decline.
Partners reduced US imports anticipating further tariffs or supply chain reshuffles.
The loss of export revenue compounds fiscal stress, especially with simultaneous tax cuts and increased military spending.
Sectoral Risks:
Energy exporters (e.g., Texas oil firms) are hit hard — crude exports falling.
Industrial metals and machinery producers face slower foreign orders.
Shipping and logistics (e.g., FedEx) flagged the US–China lane as the weakest and most unpredictable trade route.
Market Outlook:
Dollar weakness persists, with the Dollar Index near a 3-year low, reflecting investor fear over twin deficits (fiscal + trade).
Equities may remain resilient, especially domestically focused or tariff-insulated names.
However, multinationals with global exposure could underperform due to shrinking foreign sales.
What to Expect:
Volatility in trade data until clarity returns on tariff regimes.
Renewed calls for bilateral trade talks or exemptions from key US partners (e.g., EU, Mexico).
Watch for nearshoring trends to accelerate as companies avoid tariff risk.
7.
EM Rally: Emerging Markets Outshine Developed Peers Amid US Fiscal Anxiety
In a stunning reversal of past trends, emerging market (EM) assets are rallying across asset classes in 2025 — defying both the global macro gloom and the shadow of US tariff policy.
By the Numbers:
JPMorgan EM Local Bond Index: +10% YTD
MSCI EM Equity Index: +10%
MSCI World (Developed Markets): +4.8%
EM bonds in global AUM: Rising from a low 5% share
This rotation reflects a clear diversification trend away from dollar assets, fueled by erratic US policymaking, record federal debt, and a weakening dollar. The Treasury-specific risk premium is rising — and EMs are absorbing the flow.
Drivers of the Rally:
Dollar weakness: Eases FX pressure, gives central banks room to cut.
Inflation-adjusted yields in EMs at 20-year highs, making debt highly attractive.
Declining fiscal risks in EMs contrast with ballooning G7 debt burdens.
China and South Korea lead equity optimism with innovation themes and policy clarity.
“Even small inflows are having disproportionately large effects.” — Goldman Sachs’ Kevin Daly
Risks and Rotation:
Geopolitical conflict in the Middle East did not dent EM flows — a clear sign of confidence in regional resilience.
Oil prices falling reduced tail risks for EM energy importers like India and South Korea.
Still, EM equity outflows in Q1 were sizable (–$22bn), only partially reversed in May–June (+$11bn net).
Practical Strategy for Investors:
Local currency bonds in Brazil, South Africa, Indonesia — rich yields, FX tailwinds.
Tech-heavy equity plays in China and Taiwan — exposure to global AI boom.
EM corporates still lag — cautious positioning advised due to higher default risk.
What to Watch:
Further EM policy easing, especially in Asia, will support equities.
US yield volatility may occasionally disrupt flows, but the narrative has shifted.
Multi-asset portfolios should consider overweighting EM exposure tactically in H2 2025.
8.
Shell, Sovereign Risk, and the Oil Sector Outlook: BP Takeover Denied, Sector Under Pressure
Shell’s explicit denial of takeover talks with BP, despite media speculation, offers clarity but also raises key strategic questions for the European energy sector. The sector continues to grapple with sluggish price action, mounting decarbonization pressures, and a renewed focus on capital discipline.
Key Takeaways:
Shell stated it had “no intention” of acquiring BP and had not been in talks, invoking a six-month standstill period under UK takeover law.
BP shares rose 1.3%, Shell +0.5%, largely a relief rally and not based on synergies.
This quells short-term merger speculation, but it underscores the pressure on oil majors from activist investors (e.g., Elliott’s 5% stake in BP) demanding deeper cuts, higher returns, and optionality in energy transition strategy.
“Shell has preferred buybacks to acquisitions.” — Wael Sawan, CEO
Sector-Wide Implications:
BP’s aggressive renewables push has backfired, denting valuation and making it a takeover target.
Oil majors are capital-rich but investment-conservative, amid uncertain demand outlook and energy policy volatility.
High integration costs and risk of job losses are politically toxic, limiting mega-deal feasibility.
Practical Market Interpretation:
With Brent crude hovering around $68–$70, oil equities remain valuation-sensitive and vulnerable to dividend cuts or FX shocks.
Investors should favor capital-efficient names with strong free cash flow and disciplined buyback programs.
Avoid speculative merger plays; instead, track cost reduction execution and decarbonization pace.
What to Watch:
Further activist pressure on BP and Total to streamline operations.
Potential US M&A activity in smaller shale players instead of global giants.
Any signs of OPEC+ discord or US SPR use amid volatile demand expectations.
9.
New World Development: Hong Kong’s Property Giant Faces Systemic Risk
New World Development (NWD), one of Hong Kong’s largest property conglomerates, is undergoing a delicate refinancing operation amid ballooning debt, weak property sales, and a declining tourism-reliant retail economy. The implications ripple across the Asian credit markets, Chinese property sector, and Hong Kong's financial stability.
Key Financials:
Net debt: HK$124.6bn
Refinancing talks: HK$87.5bn in bank loans
Interest costs > operating profits in 2H FY2024
Annual loss: HK$20bn, the first in two decades
Shares down 22% YTD, market cap ~HK$14bn
The developer’s leverage and stalled mainland China expansion expose it to credit market deterioration, at a time when trust in property-linked balance sheets is thin.
“It won’t be a question of how much you’re willing to pay — the cover won’t be available.” — Everest CEO Jim Williamson, referring to US casualty insurance but resonant here too.
Systemic Concerns:
Barclays estimates NWD accounts for 7% of all HK commercial property loans — nearly double Evergrande’s systemic exposure in mainland China.
Property defaults or asset fire-sales could cause bank provisioning hikes, spread to retail REITs, and exacerbate deflationary pressures.
Mitigating Actions:
NWD pledged flagship assets (e.g., Victoria Dockside) as collateral.
Actively selling projects at discounts.
Chow Tai Fook Enterprises selectively buying assets, indirectly supporting liquidity.
However, refusal to engage with bondholders, deferred perpetual interest payments, and a leadership reshuffle have eroded market confidence.
Strategic Implications for Investors:
Avoid unsecured Chinese real estate debt—bondholder transparency is poor.
Favor secured exposure or government-backed REITs tied to stable rental income.
Look for HKMA guidance: policymakers are signaling banks to avoid panic provisioning, implying the government will step in to prevent contagion.
Broader Macro Read:
Reflects fragility of China’s "recovery-lite" property model, where urban development exceeds real demand.
HK real estate’s softening is also a proxy for declining mainland tourism, rising capital costs, and shifting investor preferences.
10.
Meta’s Copyright Win: Legal Green Light for AI Model Training
Meta's recent legal victory over authors suing for unauthorized use of books in AI training marks a critical turning point in the legal framework surrounding AI development. The U.S. District Court ruled that the tech giant’s use of millions of texts to train its LLaMA models constituted “fair use”, delivering a massive tailwind to AI innovation — and to equity investors betting on the sector.
Case Summary:
Plaintiffs included notable authors like Ta-Nehisi Coates.
Meta trained its AI on LibGen-sourced books without permission.
Judge Chhabria: Ruled for Meta due to “poor argumentation” by plaintiffs — not because the court inherently favored AI use.
“This ruling does not stand for the proposition that Meta’s use of copyrighted materials to train its language models is lawful. It stands only for the proposition that these plaintiffs made the wrong arguments.” — Judge Vince Chhabria
Precedent and Practical Impact:
Reinforces the fair use doctrine for transformative technologies.
Encourages aggressive data utilization strategies by other firms.
Raises the bar for future copyright suits, requiring stronger arguments like market harm (e.g., reduced author royalties).
Implications for Tech and Equity Markets:
AI development costs may fall sharply as legal uncertainty fades.
Generative AI leaders (Meta, Anthropic, OpenAI) now face fewer near-term litigation barriers.
Paves the way for AI ETF inflows, bolsters AI-leveraged tech indices (e.g., SOXX, QQQ).
Equity long positions in semis (NVDA, AMD), cloud (MSFT, GOOGL), and enterprise AI (CRM, ORCL) become even more strategic.
Regulatory Outlook:
A longer-term battle is likely over “market dilution” claims.
Courts may soon have to decide whether AI-generated outputs undermine economic incentives for human creators.
Policy frameworks from the EU or US Congress are likely within 12–18 months.
Strategic Takeaways for Investors:
Increase exposure to AI infrastructure (e.g., Nvidia, Micron, Arista).
Maintain vigilance on evolving IP litigation trends — regulatory tone may shift depending on 2025 political outcomes.
Avoid over-concentration in companies still facing unresolved copyright or data privacy battles (e.g., Open-source LLMs with gray training data).
11.
ETF Innovation: ‘Autocallables’ Go Retail – A Structural Shift in Yield Exposure
The launch of the first US-listed ETF tracking autocallable structured products by Calamos Investments, with JPMorgan support, signals a transformative shift in how retail investors access complex income strategies. Once limited to ultra-high-net-worth clients, these derivatives — with yields near 14.7% — are now democratized through a simple ticker trade.
What Are Autocallables?
Autocallables offer periodic coupons unless a linked index (e.g., S&P 500) falls below a pre-set barrier. If the barrier is breached consistently, investors risk losing principal. They are akin to structured credit instruments but are tied to equity indices, not borrowers.
Triggered by market declines.
Maturity: typically 3 years, quarterly checks.
Final protection barrier: ~60% of starting level — breach = principal loss.
ETF will hold 52+ autocallables diversified by issuance date.
Investment Mechanics:
Calamos Autocallable Income ETF (CAIY) charges 0.74% annual fee — above the average for US derivative-income ETFs (0.51%).
It’s part of a wider trend: structured outcome ETFs have exploded from $3.5bn in 2019 → $179bn today (Morningstar).
Mimics yield exposure of high-yield bonds, but linked to equity volatility.
Analyst Commentary:
Ben Johnson, Morningstar: “ETFs are taking share from all financial products — not just mutual funds, but also from bespoke structured notes.”
Elisabeth Kashner, FactSet: warned of misunderstanding risks: “Advisers will struggle to explain these. If markets fall, protection and yield disappear.”
Practical Implications:
Retail investors gain access to high-yielding structured credit proxies.
If adopted at scale, this could divert flows from traditional high-yield bonds and annuities.
Volatility derivatives embedded in autocallables will impact options markets and hedging strategies.
Risk Outlook:
In a sharp downturn, coupon stops and capital protection collapses — potentially leading to double-digit losses.
These ETFs may suffer sudden illiquidity if linked indices breach multiple trigger levels at once.
Systemic Considerations:
Broad adoption of these ETFs could amplify equity downside during sharp corrections — as dealers hedge risk via S&P futures.
Scenario: A systemic correction triggers autocallable barrier breaches, prompting delta-hedging cascades → market destabilization.
Investor Strategy:
Use as non-core, tactical exposure for income in low-volatility environments.
Monitor S&P drawdowns and ETF option volumes for stress signals.
Avoid relying on these instruments for downside protection in portfolios targeting retirement stability.
12.
Wall Street Outlook: Dollar Slide, Powell Speculation, and Inflation Signaling
Markets steadied this week as geopolitical tensions cooled with the Iran-Israel ceasefire, but underlying stress in key asset classes persists — particularly in foreign exchange and rate-sensitive sectors. Traders are recalibrating for what could be a pivot in US monetary policy, as political noise intensifies over Fed leadership and dollar weakness accelerates.
Dollar Pressure Deepens:
The US Dollar Index slid to a three-year low, falling 0.5% after the Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump may replace Fed Chair Jay Powell earlier than expected.
The euro surged to $1.1710, its strongest level since September 2021.
“We suspect that some of this narrative is seeping into perceptions,” said Macquarie’s Thierry Wizman, pointing to speculation over Fed independence.
This decline is especially concerning given the rebound in Treasury yields, which would traditionally support the greenback. Instead, we are witnessing a breakdown in classic correlations, as political interference becomes a dominant narrative.
Powell’s Job and Policy Path:
The idea of a “shadow chair” to pressure the Fed into rate cuts has unnerved institutional allocators. The White House denied imminent changes but confirmed the president’s “right to change his mind.”
This raises risk premiums around Fed credibility, especially with inflation still a threat and growth signals weakening.
Any leadership uncertainty at the Fed historically results in higher long-end yields due to perceived policy drift or political bias.
Safe Havens and Gold Dynamics:
Gold fell 0.2% to $3,324/oz, losing some haven allure post-ceasefire.
Continued outflows are expected unless inflation data surprises to the upside or Fed intervention appears politically constrained.
Equity Markets:
S&P 500 closed just under its all-time high, up 0.6%.
Risk-on sentiment is heavily liquidity-driven, with AI optimism (led by Nvidia) adding a secondary tailwind.
Oil and Inflation:
Brent crude rebounded to $68.49/bbl, up 1.2%, despite subdued supply risk.
Inflation-linked assets remain moderately priced, but any disruption to the Strait of Hormuz or further US-China escalation could reignite tail-risk pricing.
Practical Implications:
Dollar weakness can spur a rotation into EM equities, gold, and real assets.
Investors should brace for increased FX volatility and repricing of global rate differentials.
Portfolios with high USD exposure may benefit from increased geographical diversification.
TIPS and short-duration Treasuries become more attractive as stagflation hedges in case Powell is replaced with a dovish successor.
XAUUSD MARKET LAYOUTGold has shown to be bearish following the lower liquidity sweep trend channel just as shown in the analysis.
This trend channel shows a path down to the 3270's and 3260's.
Further updates would be given as the market gains momentum.
GOLD BEARISH BIAS|SHORT|
✅GOLD has printed some
Lower high and lower lows
So despite a long-term uptrend
We are locally bearish biased
Which is reinforced by the recent
Bearish breakout of both the
Rising and horizontal support lines
So we will be expecting a
Further bearish move down
With the target of retresting
The key structure below around 3,300$
SHORT🔥
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Advance technical analysis AUX USD ✅ Advanced Technical Analysis – XAU/USD (Gold) – 1H Timeframe
🧩 Chart Overview:
Timeframe: 1 Hour (H1)
Current Price: 3,333.675
Recent High: 3,451.525
Recent Low: 3,293.500
Marked with BOS (Break of Structure), CHoCH (Change of Character), supply and demand zones.
---
🔍 Step-by-Step Technical Breakdown:
---
1️⃣ Market Structure (Price Action)
🔺 Bullish Phase:
From June 13 to June 22, price showed a series of H1 BOS, confirming bullish structure.
🔻 Shift to Bearish:
After June 22, we observe several H1 CHoCH and BOS to the downside.
This indicates a clear transition from bullish to bearish, or at least a corrective phase.
---
2️⃣ Supply & Demand Zones
🟢 Demand Zone:
Marked between 3,293.5 and ~3,310
Price dipped into this zone and showed a minor bullish reaction (lower wick = liquidity grab)
🔴 Supply Zones:
Resistance at 3,393.509 (minor)
Stronger supply between 3,440 and 3,451 (previous unbroken highs)
---
3️⃣ Fibonacci & Potential Reversal Targets
If demand holds and bullish confirmation appears:
TP1: 3,393
TP2: 3,440
TP3: 3,451.5
These levels align well with structure and historical resistance.
---
4️⃣ Candlestick Behavior
Recent candles show price tapping the demand zone with some rejection.
Look for bullish engulfing, pin bars, or momentum candles as confirmation.
---
5️⃣ Potential Long Setup (If Confirmed):
Element Value
Entry Zone 3,305 – 3,315
Stop Loss Below 3,293 (e.g., 3,285)
TP1 3,393
TP2 3,440
TP3 3,451
Risk–Reward Estimated 1:3 to 1:5
---
⚠️ Risks & Considerations:
If the 3,293 demand zone breaks, bearish structure may continue.
Liquidity grabs and false breakouts are possible – wait for solid confirmation.
Align your entries with higher timeframe signals (e.g., H4) for stronger confluence.
---
❗️Disclaimer:
> This analysis is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell.
You are solely responsible for your own trading decisions.
Outlook - Gold Potential Trend ReverseStill need to wait, if gold break the upper base then there is a huge potential for trend bias changed.
But still, just wait for the break confirmation. Not need to hurry.
Gold breaks down and moves downward, focus on the 3300 markWith the official ceasefire between Iran and Israel, although there are some repeated frictions in the middle, under Trump's mediation, both parties are relatively tolerant. It seems that the war has been declared over. Gold has also fallen sharply. In the early trading, it fell sharply to around 3333 and stabilized. After rebounding to around 3357, it fell again under pressure. During the European trading session, it broke the low and continued. It repeated around 3317/8 and fell again under pressure around 3332. This position has become the key pressure point for the current top and bottom conversion. In the evening, the testimony of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell was also relatively cautious. He believed that inflation had declined, but it was still far from the 2% target. He tended to adjust interest rates after inflation achieved the target. Therefore, the double pressure caused gold to rebound weakly and repeatedly run weakly. At present, the lowest level reached 3304, which is one step away from the 3300 mark. Judging from the current trend, the overall weak pattern continues. In the evening, relying on the 3300 mark, try a long order for the last time, and then do a good job of continuing defense after the break.
6/24 Gold Evening Reference Ideas
Gold is long near 3303/05, defend 3298, target 3320/3330, short at 3298, defend 3305, target near 3276, short at 3330, defend 3337, watch 3316/08
Market next target 🔁 Disrupted Analysis (Bullish Scenario Instead of Bearish)
1. Support Holding Firm:
The analysis assumes the price will drop after failing resistance, but the current price action is showing higher lows, suggesting accumulation.
The support area has been tested multiple times, showing strength.
2. Volume Analysis Contradiction:
Recent green volume bars indicate buying interest at lower levels.
No significant volume spike on the last downward leg, suggesting lack of strong selling pressure.
3. Potential Inverted Head and Shoulders:
The current formation could be the right shoulder of an inverted head and shoulders pattern, a classic bullish reversal setup.
If confirmed, this could lead to a breakout above the resistance area, not a drop.
4. Trendline Breakout Watch:
There's a potential bullish breakout of the descending trendline.
A break above 3,320 USD could invalidate the bearish thesis and suggest a target near 3,340–3,350 USD.
Gold technical analysis and operation suggestionsGold technical analysis and operation suggestions
Market review:
Yesterday, gold showed a bottoming-out and rebounding trend. It quickly dropped to 3250 in the Asian session and then stabilized and rebounded. It rose in the European and US sessions, reaching a high of 3296 before falling under pressure. After the US session stepped back to 3270 for the second time to confirm support, it accelerated to rise, breaking through the 3300 integer mark. The daily line closed with a bottoming-out and rebounding, indicating that the 3250 support is effective, and the short-term adjustment may come to an end.
Current trend:
Gold prices continued to rebound after opening today, and now hit the 3320 line. It is necessary to pay attention to the 3324 long-short watershed pressure. If it breaks through effectively, it will confirm the reversal, and you can step back and follow up with long orders; on the contrary, if it falls under pressure, consider arranging short orders at high levels.
Technical points:
4-hour chart: 3324 is the key long-short watershed, and the support below is 3295-3301 (yesterday's resistance conversion position).
Operation idea: high short and low long within the range, follow up after breaking through 3324.
Operation strategy:
Short order: 3321-24 light position short, stop loss 3332, target 3295-3301, hold after breaking down.
Long order: 3295-3301 stabilizes and goes long, stop loss 3287, target 3320-24, hold after breaking through.
Gold Bulls Back in Control as Trump Pressures Fed for Rate CutsHey Realistic Traders!
President Trump is ramping up pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates , saying the U.S. is falling behind countries with looser policies. As several Fed officials begin to shift their stance, expectations for rate cuts are growing. That’s putting pressure on the dollar and giving gold a fresh boost.
We’ll take a closer look at what this means for OANDA:XAUUSD (Gold) through technical analysis and explore its upside potential.
Technical Analysis
On the 4-hour chart, Gold has moved above the EMA-200, signaling a shift in momentum to the upside. Price has also broken out of a Descending Broadening Wedge (DBW) pattern, which often indicates the start of a bullish trend.
The breakout was confirmed by a Bullish Marubozu candle, reflecting strong buying pressure. To add further confirmation, the MACD has formed a bullish crossover, reinforcing the upward momentum.
Looking ahead, the first target is seen at 3417. If reached, a minor pullback toward the historical resistance zone (green area) may occur, with a potential continuation toward the second target at 3500.
This bullish outlook remains valid as long as the price stays above the stop-loss level at 3271 . A break below this level would invalidate the setup and shift the outlook back to neutral.
Support the channel by engaging with the content, using the rocket button, and sharing your opinions in the comments below.
Disclaimer: "Please note that this analysis is solely for educational purposes and should not be considered a recommendation to take a long or short position on XAUUSD.
XAUUSD H1 I Bearish Drop Based on the H1 chart analysis, we can see that the price is trading near our sell entry at 33192, which is a pullback support.
Our take profit will be at 3297.07, a pullback support.
The stop loss will be placed at 3350.85, which is a swing high resistance.
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The latest analysis and layout of gold in July made a good start📰 News information：
1. Geopolitical situation
2. PMI data
📈 Technical Analysis：
Yesterday, we gave the idea of looking at the upper resistance of 3310-3320. The 4H pressure is still at 3327. As long as this key resistance level is not effectively broken, gold will fall again. On the contrary, if it stabilizes above 3327, the trend may reverse. In the short term, pay attention to the upper resistance of 3327. If it is not broken, you can short with a light position. If it falls below 3300-3290, consider going long.
🎯 Trading Points：
SELL 3310-3320
TP 3305-3300
BUY 3300-3290
TP 3310-3320-3350
In addition to investment, life also includes poetry, distant places, and Allen. Facing the market is actually facing yourself, correcting your shortcomings, confronting your mistakes, and strictly disciplining yourself. I hope my analysis can help you🌐.
TVC:GOLD FXOPEN:XAUUSD PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD
Trading Strategies Amid Geopolitical and Policy GamesToday's gold price rebounded above $3,280 after opening with a dive to a low of $3,247, showing a volatile trend.
Influencing Factors
- Geopolitics: The ceasefire between Israel and Iran earlier caused gold prices to fall, but Trump's threat to bomb Iran again and maintain sanctions has revived market risk aversion, supporting gold prices with some bargain hunting.
- Monetary Policy: Expectations for Fed rate cuts have fluctuated. The CME FedWatch Tool shows an 81.9% probability of unchanged rates in July and a 76% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut by September. U.S. economic data (e.g., personal consumption expenditure) and tariff policies are influencing gold's trajectory.
- Capital Flows: Global gold ETF demand turned negative in May, with outflows led by North American and Asian funds, putting downward pressure on gold prices.
Technical Analysis
Gold rebounded after a pullback last week, closing with two consecutive weekly gains. The $3,300-$3,310 range is a key resistance zone: a firm break above could signal a short-term trend reversal, while failure to do so may lead to a test of $3,200. On the daily chart, moving averages are bearish, MACD forms a death cross below the zero axis with expanding green bars (indicating dominant bearish momentum), but RSI at 39 near oversold levels suggests potential short-term rebound for correction.
Trading Strategy
Short gold on a rebound to the $3,305-$3,310 resistance zone, setting a stop-loss at $3,320. Initial targets are $3,280-$3,290, where profits can be gradually taken based on price action and market sentiment. If the decline continues, adjust targets downward to around $3,250, and flexibly adapt to real-time market conditions.
XAUUSD
sell@3300~3310
SL:3320
TP：3290~3280-3270
I am committed to sharing trading signals every day. Among them, real-time signals will be flexibly pushed according to market dynamics. All the signals sent out last week accurately matched the market trends, helping numerous traders achieve substantial profits. Regardless of your previous investment performance, I believe that with the support of my professional strategies and timely signals, I will surely be able to assist you in breaking through investment bottlenecks and achieving new breakthroughs in the trading field.
Gold's rally has not reversed yet? The consolidation pattern hasTechnicals:
Short-term risks remain skewed to the downside as the momentum of the relative strength index (RSI) and the moving average convergence divergence indicator (MACD) weakens. The RSI hit a new low below the neutral 50 mark. If short pressure intensifies in the next few trading days, gold prices may retest the upper track of the previous falling channel at 3215, followed by the rising support line from October 2024 at 3150. If it falls below this level, the decline may accelerate towards the psychological level of 3000, or even lower to 2970.
On the upside, if a strong catalyst pushes gold to rebound above the 20-day and 50-day moving averages (currently 3320-3350), the next resistance level may appear in the 3400-3435 range. A decisive close above this boundary may pave the way for gold prices to move towards 3500, or test resistance near 3530, and then may target the 3600 level.
Overall, despite the weakening technical indicators, gold has not completely lost its bullish reversal potential. As long as the price remains within the sideways structure above 3150, the downward pressure may still give rise to a "buy on dips" strategy.
GOLD XAUUSD potential 1-2 setup to downsideLooking at an potential 1-2 setup to the downside wave 3 of 5. adding to my previous gameplay
June 30, 2025 - XAUUSD GOLD Analysis and Potential OpportunitySummary:
Keep a close eye on fundamental news — any major headlines could instantly invalidate technical levels and short-term indicators.
From the current chart structure, the trend remains clearly bearish, so the primary strategy is to sell on pullbacks to resistance.
Watch key levels like 3283, 3300, and 3350 closely — if price breaks above these, it could signal weakening bearish momentum, requiring a quick strategy adjustment.
🔍 Key Levels to Watch:
• 3310–3312 – Resistance zone
• 3300 – Psychological level
• 3295 – Resistance
• 3283 – Intraday key resistance
• 3266 – Intraday key support
• 3250–3255 – Support zone
• 3245 – Support
• 3233 – Support
📈 Intraday Strategy:
• SELL if price breaks below 3266 → target 3260, then 3250, 3245, 3233
• BUY if price holds above 3283 → target 3295, then 3301, 3312, 3320
👉 If you want to know how I time entries and set stop-losses, hit the like button so I know there's interest — I may publish a detailed post by the weekend if support continues!
Disclaimer: This is my personal opinion, not financial advice. Trade with caution and always manage your risk.
Definitive Micro-Analysis & Actionable Forecast: XAUUSDHigh-Level Strategy (Monthly/Weekly/Daily Recap)
Overall Market Condition: The primary trend has shifted from Bullish to Bearish/Corrective due to the Monthly Bearish Engulfing and Weekly Three Black Crows patterns.
Immediate Tactical Bias: The Daily Bullish Harami pattern strongly indicates a pause in the downtrend and the high probability of a short-term corrective rally (a "bounce").
Our Goal: To map out the entry, targets, and invalidation levels for this anticipated bounce.
Deep Dive: The Lower Timeframes (4H, 1H, 30M, 15M, 5M)
Consolidation After the Low (4H & 1H):
Candlestick Reading : As observed, after the low was made (~2318), the price action on the 1H and 4H charts has stopped making new lows. Instead, it is building a base, characterized by a series of Dojis and Spinning Tops. This is a classic sign of indecision and absorption, where selling pressure is drying up and buyers are beginning to tentatively step in. This is the "coiling spring" phase before the bounce.
The Trigger (15M & 5M):
Candlestick Reading: On the 15M and 5M charts, we are looking for the very first sign that buyers are taking control. The ideal trigger would be a clear, small-scale Bullish Engulfing or Tweezer Bottom pattern forming at the bottom of this consolidation range. As of the last candle on the 5M chart, we see a small green candle attempting to move up, but the trigger is not yet confirmed.
The Full Storyboard: From Entry to Exit with Price Levels
For those interested in further developing their trading skills based on these types of analyses, consider exploring the mentoring program offered by Shunya Trade.
I welcome your feedback on this analysis, as it will inform and enhance my future work.
Regards,
Shunya Trade
⚠️ Disclaimer: This post is educational content and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or trading recommendations. The views expressed here are based on technical analysis and are shared solely for informational purposes. The stock market is subject to risks, including capital loss, and readers should exercise due diligence before investing. We do not take responsibility for decisions made based on this content. Consult a certified financial advisor for personalized guidance.
