After taking a short position in gold briefly, continue to take From a fundamental perspective, the influence of US data is limited. The market's focus still remains on Trump's tariffs. Subsequently, it is on the geopolitical situations, such as the India-Pakistan conflict, the ceasefire between Palestine and Israel, the Russia-Ukraine negotiations, and so forth.
Analysis of the News Regarding Gold: Gold is rising in a fluctuating manner. Currently, it is trading at around $3,315.44 per ounce, with an increase of approximately 0.92%. This week will witness the interest rate decision of the Federal Reserve, which is expected to dominate the market trend of this week. Additionally, we need to continue paying attention to the relevant news of the international trade situation. After the employment data week, the market's focus has shifted to this week's Federal Reserve's May FOMC meeting.
Judging from the 4-hour chart of gold, after a period of wide-ranging volatile consolidation within the price range of 3,270 to 3,350, the current price has moved to a lower volatile range. Although the two lines of the MACD indicator have issued a golden cross signal, the gold price has broken through the resistance level at 3,300. It is recommended to focus on the resistance effect of this level and pay attention to the effectiveness of the support provided by the MA10 moving average at the lower side.
Trading Strategy:
buy@3259-3270
TP:3303-3330
XAUUSDK trade ideas
GOLD recovers to initial target, confirmation point continuesOANDA:XAUUSD surged in the first half of trading on Monday (May 5), briefly surpassing the $3,270/ounce mark and marking a daily gain of more than $30. as uncertainty over U.S. tariffs spurred safe-haven flows, supporting gold prices. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut in June is also boosting the appeal of non-yielding gold.
Bloomberg reported on Monday that US President Donald Trump plans to impose a 100% tariff on all foreign-made films, which is not a huge deal, but it does escalate the trade war. "I am authorizing the Department of Commerce and the United States Trade Representative to immediately begin proceedings to impose a 100% tariff on all foreign-made films imported into the United States," Trump wrote on his Truth Social social media platform. "We want our movies made in the USA again!"
Gold prices have risen nearly 25% this year, hitting a record high above $3,500 an ounce in April, but have retreated in recent weeks. Bloomberg notes that factors driving gold’s recent rally include safe-haven buying fueled by Trump’s destructive trade and geopolitical policies, as well as speculative demand from China and buying by global central banks.
According to CME's "Federal Reserve Watch" on May 5: The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in May is 96.8%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 3.2%.
The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until June is 63.3%, the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 35.6%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 1.1%.
Technical outlook analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold is still bullish as the price action remains above the important support EMA21. At the same time, the price channel that is noted as the main long-term trend channel remains stable.
On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also showing signs of weakness as it falls to approach the 50 level, which is noted as the closest support in terms of momentum.
Going forward, if gold rebounds above $3,245, it could rebound to the short-term target of $3,267, more than the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level, and then the full price point of $3,300.
As long as gold remains within the price channel, its long-term trend remains bullish, but the risk of a deeper correction is when the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level is broken below, once this level is broken below gold is at risk of further selling to $3,163 in the short term. This also means that technically gold is in an ideal support area for bullish expectations, long positions should be protected below the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level.
In the coming period, gold has technical conditions that favor a bullish recovery, and the notable points will be listed as follows.
Support: 3,245 – 3,228USD
Resistance: 3,267 – 3,270 – 3,292USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3304 - 3302⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3310
→Take Profit 1 3296
↨
→Take Profit 2 3290
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3173 - 3175⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3169
→Take Profit 1 3181
↨
→Take Profit 2 3187
XAUUSD(GOLD)-Probable Scenario Until the End of May 2025Greetings, let’s take a look at the current situation for gold.
Technically, we can see a classic symmetrical triangle forming on the 8-hour chart, with a support zone established in the 3291–3300 range.
I'm expecting a move towards the 3440–3450 area, followed by a retest and an upward push toward the 3833 level.
Fundamentally, we take into account Trump's policy stance and the ongoing conflict between Pakistan and India.
Gold opens low, beware of gap filling!Today, under the influence of various negative news over the weekend, gold opened sharply lower and directly broke through 3300, reaching a low of 3259. The most important point is that China and the United States have agreed to establish a trade consultation mechanism, and will finalize the relevant details as soon as possible. A joint statement reached at the talks will be issued on May 12, which is considered to be substantial progress.
This round of gold surge was caused by the trade war. Before April, the rise of gold was strictly based on the technical aspects, which was relatively easy to grasp. The rise and fall of the technology was more reliable, and the technical trend was more regular. In April, gold prices rose sharply due to the tariff war, and the market started to rise and fall sharply, mainly driven by news factors. The large amplitude and many opportunities also increased the risks. It was not so easy to grasp, and it was easy to make money and lose money. This is the coexistence of risks and profits.
Last week, gold failed to reach a high for the second time and fell sharply. The short-term trend turned bearish, but it is still bullish in the medium and long term. On the one hand, geopolitical conflicts have not decreased under the great changes that have not been seen in a century, trade frictions are still there, and the global economy is at risk of recession; on the other hand, the credit of the US dollar has declined, and the US Reserve has entered a cycle of interest rate cuts. Amid various risk aversion sentiments and capital seeking profits, gold is still a very good and trustworthy variety.
The current decline is just an adjustment to the previous crazy rise in gold. This year, the gold price rose from 2600-3500 to 900 US dollars in just four months, and it was only 800 US dollars in the whole of last year. Capital's short-term profit flight is also part of the reason. If the increase is too high, the callback range must be large. The daily and weekly lines deviate seriously from the short-term moving average and the 100-day moving average, so gold may fluctuate widely at a high level in the future. Wait until the market adjustment is over, and the next interest rate cut by the US Reserve is an opportunity
Today, gold opened sharply lower. Pay attention to the gap filling. The low level in the morning fluctuated sideways. Pay attention to the rebound strength in the afternoon. The upper pressure is 3290-3292.
According to the previous operating rhythm, the European session rebounded after falling in the morning. If the European session rebounded to fill the gap, it would rely on the 3320-3325 pressure to go short, and then gold would be a volatile market.
If the European session did not fill the gap, but was suppressed below 3292 and fell, then the rebound could be shorted for the second time. If the European session broke the low and fell and weakened, gold would continue to be bearish, and the support below was 3222-3200.
Gold ShortOn the one hour timeframe this is what i see. On Friday the trendline held but the bullish momentum was week and the trendline was broken during market open. Based on US-China deal that seems to be promising i believe we might see a short and since the trend line has been broken risk takers can go short and those who are afraid of risk can wait for more confirmations like a retest.
XAUUSD 15 MINUTEThe chart you've shared shows a 15-minute candlestick chart of Gold Spot (XAU/USD) with a highlighted trade setup:
Entry price: Approximately 3,282.635
Stop loss (red box): Around 3,291.729
Take profit (green box): Around 3,265.505
This appears to be a short position (sell) setup, aiming to profit from a decline in gold prices. The risk-to-reward ratio seems favorable, with a wider potential reward area compared to the risk.
Would you like an analysis of this setup or help calculating position sizing or risk?
Gold Technical Analysis.The chart you uploaded shows the price movement of Gold (XAU/USD) on a 1-hour timeframe from TradingView. Here are some key observations:
1. Resistance and Support Zones:
The chart highlights two major resistance zones around 3,400 and 3,360, shown as shaded rectangles.
A support zone is marked near the 3,305 level.
2. Labeled Points (1 to 6):
These numbered points indicate significant price action events or turning points.
Point 1: A peak after an upward trend, indicating resistance.
Point 2: A pullback, showing resistance holding.
Point 3: Another attempt to break resistance, followed by a sharp drop.
Point 4 and 5: Lower highs, confirming a downtrend.
Point 6: A strong support test near 3,305, with a rebound.
3. Price Movement and Trend:
The chart suggests a downtrend after failing to sustain above the resistance zone.
The drawn arrow points downward toward the 3,305 level, indicating a possible bearish target.
Current price: 3,337.33, with a recent bounce from support.
4. Projected Target:
The chart indicates a target of around 3,305, suggesting a bearish bias.
Would you like a more detailed technical analysis or insight into trading strategies based on this chart?
Gold From a technical perspective, the overnight breakdown through the $3,260 resistance-turned-support and the subsequent slide below the $3,300 mark on Friday favors the XAU/USD bears. However, oscillators on the daily chart – though they have been losing traction – are yet to confirm the negative bias. This, in turn, warrants some caution before positioning for deeper losses and suggests that the Gold price could find some support near the $3,265-3,264 horizontal zone. Some follow-through selling, however, should pave the way for a fall towards the $3,223-3,222 intermediate support en route to last week's swing low, around the $3,200 neighborhood.
Will gold fall? Here comes the latest analysis.Technical analysis:
Gold fell rapidly in the morning and then bottomed out and rebounded. When the price broke through $3,324, it began to rise. The weak market will not rebound significantly. When the rebound that engulfed the decline appears, it will continue to rise. However, it should be noted that gold has been fluctuating at a high level for a week. It rose sharply on Monday and Tuesday, fell sharply on Wednesday and Thursday, and it is still fluctuating sharply today.
For the current trading market, I think the price of gold will continue to rise in the fluctuation. After the hourly cycle breaks through the $3,324 position, the market will gradually increase today, and there is room for further upward continuation. I think short-term trading is still mainly long; after the rebound high, you can choose a short strategy.
Action suggestions:
Long strategy: Go long at US$3330, stop loss at US$3320, and take profit at US$3360-3370.
Short strategy: short at $3,365, stop loss at $3,380, take profit at $3,300-3,310.
Gold 100% Profit SignalYesterday, gold surged and then fell. It was under pressure at 3415 in the early Asian session, and short orders were entered at 3413.6. After rebounding to 3369 in the European session, it was under pressure again, and short orders followed up at 3368.5. The overall trend continued to be extremely weak, breaking 3300 in the late trading and accelerating to 3288. It rebounded to above 3300 in the early morning, and the daily line closed with a long lower shadow positive line, indicating that short-term support is effective, but the rebound momentum is suppressed by the previous wave trend. The current gold price is fluctuating in the 3300-3348 range, with upper resistance of 3348-3352. If it breaks through, be alert to a second surge to 3365; the lower support is 3295-3303. If it loses or falls back to the 3275-3255 area. Trading needs to keep a close eye on the dynamics of key positions.
Operation strategy:
1. It is recommended to short gold when it rebounds to 3340-3345, with a stop loss at 3353 and a target of 3320-3300
**#XAUUSD H1 – Buy Setup Waiting for Confirmation**---
📈 **#XAUUSD H1 – Buy Setup Waiting for Confirmation**
Previously, the **3330–3329 zone** acted as **strong support**,
and now it’s turning into a **key resistance area**.
📌 What we need:
A **clear bullish H1 candle close above 3330** — only then we will consider our **H1 Buy Setup**.
---
📝 **Trade Plan (upon confirmation):**
* ✅ **Entry:** After bullish H1 close above 3330
* 🛑 **Stoploss:** 3314
* 🎯 **Safer Target:** 3348
* 🎯 **Final Target:** 3369
---
🧘♂️ *Stay patient and wait for proper confirmation above 3329–3330 before entering. Structure comes first.*
---
Technical Breakdown on Gold Spot / USD (XAU/USD) | 1H TimeframeTechnical Breakdown on Gold Spot (XAU/USD) – 1H Timeframe using Volume Profile, Gann, and CVD + ADX
1. Key Observations (Volume, Gann & CVD + ADX Focused)
a) Volume Profile Insights:
Value Area High (VAH): 3,388.2
Value Area Low (VAL): 3,296.7
Point of Control (POC): 3,385.3
High-volume nodes: Dense consolidation between 3,365 – 3,390, indicating institutional activity and balance.
Low-volume gaps: Between 3,340 – 3,360 (inefficient move up, price may revisit).
b) Liquidity Zones:
Stop clusters likely at:
Above 3,388 (previous swing high)
Below 3,300 (recent swing low)
Order absorption areas: Around 3,320 where price stalled with large volume, indicating passive buyers absorbing aggressive sellers.
c) Volume-Based Swing Highs/Lows:
Swing High: 3,388.5 (strong rejection & volume spike)
Swing Low: 3,297.1 (volume bounce support area)
d) CVD + ADX Indicator Analysis:
Trend Direction: Range-bound currently (sideways movement in CVD with weak momentum)
ADX Strength: ADX < 20 → Indicates weak trend or consolidation
CVD Confirmation:
CVD is showing slight bullish divergence vs. price → early demand buildup
Not yet confirmed with strong trend continuation
2. Support & Resistance Levels
a) Volume-Based Levels:
Support:
VAL: 3,296.7
Absorption zone: 3,320.0
Resistance:
VAH: 3,388.2
Swing high: 3,388.5
b) Gann-Based Levels:
Recent swing low: 3,297.1
Retracement levels (from recent high 3,388.5 to low 3,297.1):
1/3 Retracement: 3,327.6
1/2 Retracement: 3,342.8
2/3 Retracement: 3,358.0
3. Chart Patterns & Market Structure
a) Trend: Range-bound (confirmed by ADX < 20 and flat CVD)
b) Notable Patterns:
Potential bullish falling wedge pattern forming
Projection suggests price might bounce from 3,320 toward upper channel (3,370+)
Watch for retest of POC (3,385) for breakout confirmation
4. Trade Setup & Risk Management
a) Bullish Entry (Pending confirmation from breakout and CVD support):
Entry Zone: 3,320 – 3,325 (channel + volume support)
Targets:
T1: 3,342.8 (50% Gann)
T2: 3,385.3 (POC and VAH)
Stop-Loss (SL): Below 3,297 (swing low/VAL)
RR: Minimum 1:2
b) Bearish Entry (If rejection at VAH and CVD turns bearish):
Entry Zone: 3,385 – 3,388
Target:
T1: 3,320.0
Stop-Loss (SL): Above 3,400
RR: Minimum 1:2
c) Position Sizing:
Risk only 1-2% of capital per trade
Gold Holding Strong — Poised for the Next Leg HigherI believe we may be on the verge of another upward wave in gold.
Commodity cycles tend to be very long due to the unique characteristics of the market — such as slow changes in supply and demand, capital-intensive production, and long investment horizons.
The daily chart shows strength, with the overall trend remaining bullish. There’s no clear reason to panic or sell at this stage. After reaching 3400, gold has seen a healthy correction. I don’t expect a move significantly lower from here.
I’m in a long position and placing a stop-loss at today’s low, with a target above 3500.
GOLD 30m Buy Setup | FVG + Fib Discount + Reversal Block🌟 GOLD (XAUUSD) Buy Opportunity | May 9, 2025 | 30m SMC Setup
This GOLD setup on the 30-minute timeframe presents a textbook Smart Money entry. We’ve got a deep retracement into the 61.8% Fibonacci level, clear Fair Value Gap (FVG) demand zone, and a sharp rejection wick + micro reversal block right at the zone.
🔍 KEY CONFLUENCES:
🔻 Deep Discount: 61.8% Fib zone
🟧 FVG block inside key institutional candle
🧱 Reversal block right before the reaction
💥 Aggressive price rejection at 3,297 zone
📈 Targeting premium levels ~3,369.6
🛡️ SL below 70.5% (~3,293.2) — safe under liquidity grab
📈 Setup Specs:
Timeframe: 30min
Direction: Long
Entry Zone: 3,302 – 3,303
TP: 3,369.6
SL: ~3,293.2
RR: Approx. 1:8+
💡 Trade Logic:
Smart Money engineered a sweep of local lows, then left an imbalance (FVG) as the market shifted. The 61.8% retracement + bullish wick combo confirms intent. The reaction is strong — we expect price to fill the inefficiency and target premium liquidity above.
🎯 Chart Ninja Tip:
“Where price pauses, Smart Money loads. Where it explodes, they’ve already finished.”
Break out 3360 and short term downtrend, but be careful🔔🔔🔔 Gold news:
➡️ Gold extended its previous day's pullback, dropping nearly 1% to $3,323 on Thursday as improved risk sentiment weighed on the safe-haven asset. The shift in mood came ahead of an expected announcement by President Donald Trump regarding a trade deal with the UK, scheduled for a 14:00 GMT press conference in Washington, according to sources familiar with the matter.
➡️ Additional overnight momentum came from the Fed's rate decision and comments by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who highlighted signs of recovery in the U.S. economy.
Personal opinion:
➡️ A US-UK trade deal is the beginning of positive negotiations with other countries. However, the two main characters of the US and China are not yet guaranteed. Therefore, the price of gold may fall because of positive information from tariffs, but that is not all. In addition, the Middle East war and India-Pakistan are still the driving force that keeps gold from falling too much.
➡️ Analysis based on important resistance - support zones and Fibonacci combined with EMA to come up with a suitable strategy
Plan:
🔆Price Zone Setup:
👉Sell Gold 3355 - 3357
❌SL: 3362 | ✅TP: 3351 - 3346 – 3340
👉Buy Gold 3305 - 3307
❌SL: 3300 | ✅TP: 3311 - 3316 – 3322
FM wishes you a successful trading day 💰💰💰
XAUUSD 15 MINUTEThe chart you've provided shows a 15-minute candlestick pattern for Gold Spot (XAU/USD) from OANDA. Here's a quick analysis:
Trade Setup: A short (sell) trade was placed after a rally.
Red Box: Indicates the stop-loss zone (above the entry point).
Green Box: Represents the take-profit zone (below the entry point).
Text "TARGET SUCCESSFUL": Suggests that the price moved downwards and hit the target profit level.
Entry Price: Around 3,357.
Target (Take-Profit): Near 3,332.556.
Stop-Loss: Near 3,368.
This trade was successful, as the price dropped and touched the take-profit zone, exiting before hitting the stop-loss.
Would you like help setting up a similar trade or analyzing another part of the chart?
Daily Analysis- XAUUSD (Thursday, 8th May 2024)Bias: Bullish
USD News(Red Folder):
-Unemployment Claims
Analysis:
-No bottom wick on daily candle
-Looking for price to retest 0.382-0.5 fib level
-Potential BUY if there's confirmation on lower timeframe
-Pivot point: 3310
Disclaimer:
This analysis is from a personal point of view, always conduct on your own research before making any trading decisions as the analysis do not guarantee complete accuracy.