XAUUSDK trade ideas
TECHNICALS: Gold on buythrough out last week gold made a reversal pattern on the 1HR TF. It might touch the 3250 price level before heading to the 3350 take profit level this week or it could take off directly from the range it closed at last week. either way, gold is heading for a buy this week based on technical analysis. have a wonderful trading week ahead!!!
XAUUSD Elliot wave update: Is wave 4 still in play?From our previous count we were anticipating a drop for 4th wave completion. We can see now we have been dropping as anticipated. Given the current wave structure I am expecting a double 3 (wxy) to complete this 4th wave. If we are correct then we should expect price to continue down from current position before pulling back up and fall one more time. To take advantage of the move if not caught at the top, one should find areas where price will find resistance to short the market.
Non-agricultural data is coming. Will it affect the market trendBecause there will be non-agricultural data next week, Quaid thinks that the market will not be in a hurry to perform at the beginning of the week. And Friday is the US Independence Day, and the market will be closed in advance; maybe only Wednesday and Thursday are really needed.
This week, gold closed below 3300, and the daily line was also broken, and gold officially entered a bearish trend.
First look at the monthly line chart
Because next Monday is the last day of June, the monthly line will start to close, so you can still pay attention to the support of the monthly line. The MA5 moving average below the monthly line is currently around 3170. Moreover, with the support of non-agricultural data next week, the possibility of touching around 3170 is not ruled out.
Secondly, from the weekly line chart
The weekly line is basically the same as the monthly line. The MA20 moving average below is also around 3170. So next week, I think we should focus on around 3170. The monthly line and the weekly line resonate, so the probability of touching this position is very high.
Finally, let's look at the daily chart. The daily chart shows a downward trend and the short-term support has been broken. The current support is around 3250. I think there is a high probability of a small sideways consolidation at the beginning of the week. If the market conditions are eager to change, it may rebound slightly and then continue to decline. If it falls below 3250, it will continue to fall towards 3200. If this level is broken, it may hit the low point of 3170-3175.
Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar - 4 Hour Chart (OANDA)4-hour chart from OANDA shows the price movement of Gold Spot (XAUUSD) against the U.S. Dollar, with the current price at 3,282.135, reflecting a decrease of 45.685 (-1.37%). The chart includes a descending trendline, support and resistance zones (highlighted in pink and teal), and key price levels ranging from 3,244.835 to 3,400.000. The analysis suggests a potential downward movement as the price approaches a support zone near 3,244.975, with indicators like the U.S. flag and lightning bolt possibly signaling significant market events or volatility.
Gold fluctuated slightly, retreating to low-multiple operations
📌 Gold news
During the North American trading session on Wednesday, gold prices remained stable, rising by more than 0.30% as easing tensions between Israel and Iran boosted risk sentiment. Meanwhile, disappointing US housing data may prompt the Federal Reserve (Fed) to take action in the future. However, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's continued tough stance has limited further upside for gold.
📊Comment analysis
Gold fluctuated in a small range yesterday, and the daily line closed with a positive cross star.
Daily support is around 3327-3324, and you can go long if you touch it.
Daily resistance is around 3368, and you can go short if you touch it.
If the market goes down to yesterday's low, the bottom continues to look near this week's low, and I am more inclined to be bullish
💰Gold operation strategy
If gold is close to 3327, you can go long, with a target of 3345.
Look for opportunities to short around 3350-3360, with a target around 3330.
I hope Labaron's article can help you with your investment. If you don't understand something, you can find me. I am not only a mentor, but also a friend worth making in your life.
⭐️ Note: Labaron hopes that traders can properly manage their funds
- Choose the number of lots that matches your funds
XAUUSDGold (XAU/USD) has shown bullish momentum, maintaining higher lows and holding above a significant support zone around 3333. A clean breakout above 3335 with sustained volume suggests further upside potential, targeting resistance levels at 3345 and beyond. Risk-reward ratio remains favorable if price action sustaiXAU/USD Trade Analysis – Buy Setup
📌 Trade Idea: Long position on Gold (XAU/USD)
Bias: Bullish continuation after price action confirmation near support
🔹 Entry Zone:
3337 – 3333 (Ideal buy range within key support zone)
🔹 Stop Loss:
3323.00 (Placed below key support/structure to manage risk)
🔹 Take Profit Targets:
🎯 TP1: 3345
🎯 TP2: 3350
🎯 TP3: 3355
ns above the 3333 zone.
XAU/USD 25 June 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 23 April 2025
Price has now printed a bearish CHoCH according to my analysis yesterday.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,500.200.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively.
Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Following previous high, and printing of bearish CHoCH, price has pulled back to an M15 supply zone, where we are currently seeing a reaction. Therefore, I shall now confirm internal high.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
The remainder of my analysis shall remain the same as analysis dated 13 June 2025, apart from target price.
As per my analysis dated 22 May 2025 whereby I mentioned price can be seen to be reacting at discount of 50% EQ on H4 timeframe, therefore, it is a viable alternative that price could potentially print a bullish iBOS on M15 timeframe despite internal structure being bearish.
Price has printed a bullish iBOS followed by a bearish CHoCH, which indicates, but does not confirm, bearish pullback phase initiation. I will however continue to monitor, with respect to depth of pullback.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to continue bearish, react at either M15 supply zone, or discount of 50% internal EQ before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,451.375.
Note:
Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance, persistent and escalating geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment.
Additionally, President Trump’s recent tariff announcements are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws.
M15 Chart:
XAU/USDPrice action trading is a methodology in financial markets where traders make decisions based on the actual price movements of an asset over time, rather than relying heavily on technical indicators or fundamental analysis. It involves observing and interpreting patterns and trends in price charts to predict future price movements.
Next week's gold trend analysis strategy:
1. News interpretation: Fed policy and market sentiment dominate the direction
✦ Review of key factors:
The situation in the Middle East has eased
The safe-haven demand for gold has declined, which is bearish for gold prices.
Fed Focus: PCE Price Index
If PCE data rises → Strengthen interest rate hike expectations → Gold prices are under pressure
If personal spending is weak → Interest rate hike expectations slow down → Favorable gold price rebound
Investors' wait-and-see sentiment heats up
→ There is no panic selling in the market, and it tends to fluctuate downward rather than plummet.
2. Technical analysis: Bearish dominance, pay attention to key support areas
Daily structure:
The bearish trend is clear, and the moving average system turns downward;
The price is running near the lower track of the Bollinger band, and there is a suspicion of short-term oversold;
The 3280-3295 area constitutes a pressure zone, which has not been broken after multiple tests.
Key points at the 4-hour level:
A step-down channel is clearly formed;
Support levels gradually move downward, a typical bearish pattern;
Lower support: 3270 → 3263 → 3250-3245
Upper pressure: 3280 → 3300 → 3310
III. Gold trend forecast for next week
📉 Main trend: bearish, short-term or bottoming out
If it falls to the 3245-3250 area, a short-term technical rebound can be expected;
After the rebound, it may be blocked again in the 3280-3295 range, suitable for short selling;
Unless it strongly recovers above 3310, it will be difficult to reverse the downward trend.
IV. Operation strategy suggestions (core)
Sell on highs 3285 - 3295 Stop loss 3310 Target 3255 / 3245 Layout short orders near resistance
Trend bottom-picking 3245 - 3250 Stop loss 3238 Target 3275 / 3280 Oversold rebound expected, try to buy long with a light position
Aggressive short selling near 3310 Stop loss above 3336 Target 3280 / 3263 Top and bottom conversion resistance level, if the test is not broken, short
V. Summary and Outlook
✅ Conclusion: Next week, the trend of gold will still be "high-short as the main and low-long as the auxiliary", focusing on the game between 3250 support and 3295 pressure level.
Gold has not yet broken out of the short structure, and the inertial decline after breaking 3295 will continue. It is recommended that traders avoid chasing ups and downs, strictly implement stop losses, and remain flexible.
XAUUSD: Market analysis and strategy for July 1.Gold technical analysis
Daily chart resistance 3400, support 3250
4-hour chart resistance 3374, support 3300
1-hour chart resistance 3355, support 3330
4-hour chart bearish, but 1H chart has reversed bullish. Technically, gold formed a double bottom support near 3247 and has entered the B wave rebound, but beware of the C wave decline that may start at any time.
Gold price accelerated upward after breaking through the key resistance of 3300. 3300 is the 0.50 position of the previous decline. Today's market rose slowly by 50 dollars without a callback. The bullish rally will continue at least until the second half of the NY market before a callback occurs.
The risky approach is to follow the trend and buy at the current price. The safe way is to wait for the callback to around 3325~3330 before buying.
BUY: 3350
BUY: 3330
XAU/USD (Gold vs. US Dollar) 4h chart pattern XAU/USD (Gold vs. US Dollar) on the 4-hour timeframe displays a bullish cup and handle pattern forming, with a breakout above the handle resistance and Ichimoku cloud.
Technical Observations:
Cup and Handle pattern indicates bullish continuation.
Breakout has occurred above trendline and handle.
Price is trading near $3,350 (approx).
Two upside TARGETS are marked on the chart.
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🎯 Projected Targets (Approximate):
Based on your chart:
1. First Target (TP1): Around $3,390 - $3,395
2. Second Target (TP2): Around $3,425 - $3,430
These targets align with the measured move of the cup height projected from the breakout level.
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✅ Confirmation:
Price is above the trendline and trying to hold above the Ichimoku cloud.
Entry would be ideal on a pullback to the breakout zone (~31,335-$3,340) for lower risk.
Stop-loss can be considered below the handle low (~$3,310 or $3,305).
Let me know if you want Fibonacci-based targets or support/resistance levels as well.
GOLD - $4000+ in the 2020s I believe gold is real wealth.
You can hold in your hand, protect it and use it as you see fit.
Hold a stack of gold coins in your hand and see for yourself that there is nothing else quite like it.
There is also the metaphysical property of gold to attract more wealth, acknowledged in many cultures.
This has been true for me since I started accumulating physical gold.
So I am price agnostic about it.
I buy it and hold it because I like it.
I believe it is a unique way to store wealth energy in this world.
Looking at the chart, the days of buying physical gold at these sub $2000 prices may soon come to an end.
We have a huge cup, and a developed handle that is taking its time to break upwards.
The breakout was already rejected once. That will make the breakout all the more violent when it finally comes.
According to the minimum target of a cup and handle pattern, the gold price per oz will have a "4" handle before this decade is finished.
If you can, hold physical gold, in secret, well-guarded.
The fundamentals for a gold resurgence have been there for years now - fiat currency inflation and a scramble to store wealth.
Most people are still in a mindset of playing the trading game, or the interest - bearing game. Trying to beat the market and get something for nothing.
Those are net loss games now, and for the near future. There is a risk in holding your money in paper assets that few are talking about.
Those games will return when we create sound money again.
Good luck and enjoy!
XAUUSD analysis - 1H FVG and OB SetupsBack after a few days with our gold update.
We’re on the 1-hour timeframe, and price has been respecting our levels perfectly, especially in the two blue boxes (1H FVGs) where we got precise reactions. These reactions are marked with green circles, showing areas where we entered on lower timeframes like 3m or 5m.
Currently, gold is sitting at a key area marked with a yellow circle (1H supply zone / resistance). If this area breaks strongly without a fakeout, we could potentially target higher resistance zones above.
Stay sharp and ready to catch clean reactions.
Key levels for confirmation:
3345-3358 (current important zone)
3300 (major 1H OB / support)
3420 (major 1H OB / resistance)
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