Gold Market Update Ahead of US Jobs Data
On Friday, gold edged up slightly ahead of key US jobs data (NFP). Optimism over a US-China deal and USD profit-taking are capping gold’s gains. A weak NFP (<100,000) would bolster expectations of a Fed rate cut (54% chance in September), supporting gold, while a strong NFP (>200,000) would pressure it downward.
Technically, the market is bullish, with prices consolidating in the 3300-3340 range after breaking resistance. A shakeout at support is possible before the trend resumes.
Resistance: 3375, 3391, 3414
Support: 3339, 3331
Forecasting prices before NFP is tough, so it’s best to wait for the data and monitor price reactions. Prices may stay range-bound until next week, depending on fundamentals.
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XAUUSDK trade ideas
XAUUSD📉Gold Market Outlook – Bearish Setup in Play
Current Price: 3324.00
Recent price structure and momentum suggest a potential bearish continuation below key resistance levels.
🔍 Technical View:
Price is consistently trading below the 50-period moving average, signaling short-term weakness.
A series of lower highs and lower lows indicate a bearish market structure.
RSI is trending below 50, reflecting fading bullish momentum.
Failure to reclaim the 3355–3345 resistance zone reinforces downside risk.
🔻 Key Levels to Watch:
Resistance Zone: 3355.00 – 3345.00
Sustained trading below this range may open the door to:
3300.00
3284.00
📉 Major Breakdown Scenario:
A 3-day consecutive close below 3384.00 could confirm a structural shift, exposing gold to a deeper sell-off toward 3200.00.
⚠️ Risk Disclaimer:
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves substantial risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always conduct your own research and use proper risk management.
Gold could hold ahead of the FedUpward pressure from fundamentals and sentiment has been somewhat lower in June so far as trade tension has generally calmed down and stock markets have mostly recovered well from April’s turmoil. Lower volatility is clear from both contracting Bollinger Bands and ATR, which has declined since last month but remains high at around $56.
5 June’s attempt at $3,400 hasn’t been decisively rejected yet, so it’d be quite possible to see the price moving somewhat beyond there intraday in the middle of June, but another vigorous phase of the main uptrend immediately seems less likely. The 100% weekly Fibonacci extension around $3,480 seems like a potentially strong resistance although it’s only been tested once so far on 22 April.
Equally, the area around the equivalent 61.8% Fibo and the 161.8% monthly Fibo extension would probably cap losses unless there’s a strong driver of some sort. That might be a sudden resolution of trade tension or a major hawkish shift by the Fed, both of which seem quite unlikely. Overall, the situation seems to favour short-term traders for now.
This is my personal opinion, not the opinion of Exness. This is not a recommendation to trade.
XAUUD 1HThe chart you've shared is for Gold Spot against the U.S. Dollar (XAU/USD) on the 1-hour timeframe. Here's a technical breakdown of the key elements:
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📉 Chart Pattern Analysis
1. Descending Triangle / Head and Shoulders:
The structure outlined in red and yellow lines could suggest a head and shoulders pattern or a descending triangle—both typically bearish patterns.
The breakdown from the neckline (near 3,360-3,370) has already occurred, indicating potential for further downside.
2. Bearish Momentum:
There is a strong bearish candle that breaks below the triangle/neckline, showing bearish pressure.
The black zigzag arrow suggests the projected move is down.
3. Target Area:
The green arrow and red horizontal line suggest a target zone around 3,280, which aligns with previous support/resistance zones.
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📊 Price Levels to Watch
Immediate Resistance: ~3,400
**Breakdown Level (Neckline
Gold rebounds but hits resistance, pulls back Recently, Nonfarm Payroll data dropped significantly and fell short of expectations 📊! Although the Federal Reserve has remained cautious about rate cuts, under the pressure of persistently weak data, it will face mounting pressure from all sides to cut interest rates and rescue the market ⚠️. Gold successfully stabilized and rebounded today after pulling back to test the vicinity of 3333 at its lowest point ✨! Despite currently trading within a range near 3375-3380 and hitting resistance, unable to break higher 📉, there is still room for trading opportunities 💹🚀.
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Daily Analysis: 04‑06‑2025
Spot gold closed yesterday with a 0.8% decline, settling at 3,353, pressured by profit-taking. On the same day, the World Gold Council released data showing that central bank net purchases of gold in April totaled only 12 tons—below both March figures and the 12-month average.
On the other hand, reports indicate that several central banks in Africa are preparing to add gold to their reserves. In the broader market, investor focus is now on the highly anticipated meeting between U.S. President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping later this week.
Today, attention turns to the U.S. ADP Non-Farm Employment data release.
Technical Outlook:
If the upward trend resumes, price targets are seen at 3,380 and 3,400. In the event of a pullback, support levels are located at 3,331 and 3,291.
XAUUSD (gold) 15-minute chartKey Points:
✅ Resistance:
The resistance area is being tested multiple times, but there's no confirmed breakout yet.
✅ Support:
The support area is holding the price for now, with buyers stepping in every time the price drops near it.
✅ Triangle:
Price is consolidating inside a symmetrical triangle, which usually precedes a breakout — but the direction is still uncertain.
✅ Risk:
Trading before a confirmed breakout is risky, as fakeouts (false breakouts) can trap traders. So it’s better to wait for a clear direction.
💡 Trade Setup:
🕒 Avoid entering trades until there's a confirmed breakout.
📉 If the candle closes below the support line with confirmation, it could be a sell signal.
📈 If the candle closes above the resistance line with confirmation, it could be a buy signal.
⏳ Until then, be patient and let the market decide the direction.
XAU/USD 04 June 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 23 April 2025
Price has now printed a bearish CHoCH according to my analysis yesterday.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,500.200.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively.
Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 22 May 2025.
In my analysis from 12 May 2025, I noted that price had yet to target the weak internal high, including on the H4 timeframe. This aligns with the ongoing corrective bearish pullback across higher timeframes, so a bearish internal Break of Structure (iBOS) was a likely outcome.
As anticipated, price targeted strong internal low, confirming a bearish iBOS.
Price has remained within the internal range for an extended period and has yet to target the weak internal low. A contributing factor could be the bullish nature of the H4 timeframe's internal range, which has reacted from a discounted level at 50% of the internal equilibrium (EQ).
Intraday Expectation:
Technically price to continue bullish, react at either premium of internal 50% EQ or M15 demand zone before targeting weak internal low priced at 3,120.765.
Alternative scenario:
Price can be seen to be reacting at discount of 50% EQ on H4 timeframe, therefore, it is a viable alternative that price could potentially print a bullish iBOS on M15 timeframe.
Note:
Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance and persistent geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment.
Additionally, President Trump’s recent tariff announcements are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws.
M15 Chart:
GOLD Additional factors supporting gold’s bullish opening include:
Modest US dollar weakness: The dollar has softened amid fiscal concerns and growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates later in 2025, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.
US fiscal concerns: Worries about the US debt situation and potential impacts of tax-cutting bills have increased safe-haven demand for gold.
Technical buying: Gold prices breaking above key resistance levels have attracted fresh buying interest, setting the stage for further gains toward $3,400 and beyond.
In summary, the bullish gold opening today reflects a combination of heightened geopolitical risk, trade war escalation, US fiscal concerns, and expectations of Fed easing, all of which drive investors to seek safety in gold.
GOLD and broker candle sticks manipulationAdditional factors supporting gold’s bullish opening include:
Modest US dollar weakness: The dollar has softened amid fiscal concerns and growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates later in 2025, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.
US fiscal concerns: Worries about the US debt situation and potential impacts of tax-cutting bills have increased safe-haven demand for gold.
Technical buying: Gold prices breaking above key resistance levels have attracted fresh buying interest, setting the stage for further gains toward $3,400 and beyond.
In summary, the bullish gold opening today reflects a combination of heightened geopolitical risk, trade war escalation, US fiscal concerns, and expectations of Fed easing, all of which drive investors to seek safety in gold.
Gold Trading Strategies, June 2✅Affected by Ukraine's weekend attack on several Russian military airports, market concerns about the geopolitical situation have intensified, but Russia and Ukraine will hold peace talks in Istanbul on Monday, and market sentiment is still biased towards wait-and-see. In addition, US President Trump announced that he would increase import tariffs on steel and aluminum from 25% to 50% from June 4, exacerbating international trade tensions.
✅In the medium and long term, the Fed's potential interest rate cut cycle, continued geopolitical risks, and concerns about the US fiscal situation will provide support for gold prices. However, if US economic data continues to be strong or the Fed turns to a hawkish stance, gold's upside may be limited.
✅The current gold price has broken through the previous strong resistance level of 3325, and the Bollinger Bands are opening upward, indicating strong bullish momentum. The short-term resistance has moved up to 3367. If it can further break through this level, it is expected to test the 3400 mark.
✅During the Asian session, the gold price rebounded strongly after stepping back to 3301, confirming that the 3300 integer mark support is effective, and 3300 has also become an important long-short watershed in the future market. After stabilizing above 3300, bullish momentum continued to be released, gold prices rose rapidly and hit a new high of 3358, successfully breaking through the previous high of 3330, further consolidating the bullish pattern.
✅At present, we need to focus on the 3325-3333 support level during the callback process. This position is an important resistance area in the early stage, and has now been transformed into a top-bottom conversion support. If the retracement does not break, we can consider buying long orders at lows in this area and participating in the bull market.
🔥Market trends are changing rapidly, and we will provide Group Members with accurate trading strategies based on real-time market dynamics. Short-term trading focuses on flexibility, requires timely adjustment of positions, and strict implementation of risk control, striving to ensure the safety of funds and stable transactions while responding to market fluctuations.