Can Gold Regain Its Recent Highs or Does a Shakeout Loom?Gold has seen its price volatility increase across the first three trading days of this week. The initial move was a 3% spike higher from opening levels at 3339 on Monday, to a one month high of 3439 early on Wednesday morning, as traders sought out Gold as a safe haven hedge against renewed political attacks on the independence of the Federal Reserve and more specifically its Chairman, Jerome Powell.
Then on Wednesday, the outlook for Gold changed again, almost instantaneously, and prices reversed their course, dropping 1.7% to touch a low of 3381 after President Trump announced a trade deal with Japan, which agreed tariffs of 15% on Japanese imports into the US, a number better than many traders and investors had anticipated. Taken alongside a Bloomberg report released on Wednesday afternoon suggesting a similar agreement could be reached with the EU using the Japan deal as a blueprint, and suddenly the need for Gold as a safe haven hedge didn’t seem quite so necessary.
However, while Gold has traded as low as 3374 this morning, prices remain around 1% higher on the week (around 3380 at time of writing 0700 BST), supported on dips by an on-going theme of dollar weakness, which has continued as risk sentiment has shifted to a more positive stance. The challenge for traders is to determine whether this will remain the case into the weekend.
Looking forward, President Trump still needs to agree any trade deal negotiated with the EU, which could be a stumbling block keeping Gold volatility elevated, as could updates on the strength of the US economy when the Preliminary PMI Surveys for July are released later today at 1445 BST. Any print below 50 = economic contraction, while any print above 50 = economic expansion, and the direction of service activity in the US economy may be what draws the most headlines, especially if it moves back to the downside.
The failure of Gold ahead of the June high at 3451 may also be potentially important from a technical perspective and this is discussed further below.
Technical Update: 3451 June Highs In Focus
Having previously encountered selling pressure leading to price weakness after being capped at the June 16th high of 3451, this level remains a potential resistance focus for traders. These themes may also have been strengthened after Wednesday’s failure below this level (the session high was 3439), which has prompted the latest downside price activity, as the chart below shows.
This activity may see traders question the sustainability of the recent price strength, even looking for fresh price declines. With this in mind, let’s consider what support or resistance levels could be monitored to help establish the direction of the next possible price move.
Possible Support Levels:
The first support level if price declines are seen over the balance of the week may be marked by 3343, which is equal to the Bollinger mid-average.
Closing breaks under the 3343 support, while not a guarantee of a more extended phase of price weakness, might then open potential for a move towards 3246, the June 30th session low.
Possible Resistance Levels:
As we have suggested, it’s possible the 3451 June 16th session high represents the first resistance focus for traders, if attempts at price strength are again seen.
However, closing breaks above 3451 may be required to suggest the potential of a more extended phase of price strength to challenge the 3500 April 22nd all-time high and possibly further if this is broken on a closing basis.
Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
