Gold Technical Expert Review - 3 May 2025 XAUUSD 1H Forecast
✅ Structure Summary:
The market is in a clear bearish trend, forming lower highs and lower lows.
Price has tapped into a validated 1H LQ Close zone, showing early signs of a bullish reaction.
A large untouched supply zone remains above, possibly acting as a future trap.
🔮 Price Forecast:
📈 Short-Term Bullish Scenario:
Price could bounce from the current LQ Close zone and rally toward the descending trendline.
It may interact with local liquidity pools or minor supply zones on the way — Phase 1 inducement in progress.
📉 Main Bearish Scenario:
Upon reaching the descending trendline or supply area, price could reverse again following the Phase 2 inducement, aligning with the broader bearish structure.
Downside targets include the 3180 region, and potentially lower toward 3150 if momentum increases
XAUUSDK trade ideas
XAU/USD - Bearish Flag Pattern (25.04.2025)The XAU/USD Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Bearish Flag Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 3232
2nd Support – 3188
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XAU/USD (Gold) Analysis 2/5/20251. XAU/USD recently recorded an all-time high (ATH) at the 3150 level.
2. Following a healthy retracement, we are now eyeing potential long opportunities near the 3100 zone.
3. The 3100 level presents a favorable risk-reward entry point, aligned with historical support.
4. Market sentiment remains bullish, supported by strong fundamentals and ongoing geopolitical tensions.
5. A breakout above the previous ATH could open the door for a continued rally toward higher resistance levels.
6. Our upside targets for this move are in the range of 3450 to 3500, offering considerable profit potential.
7. Price consolidation near 3100 indicates accumulation, reinforcing the long bias.
8. We anticipate renewed buying pressure as the market tests key psychological and technical levels.
9. Risk management will be crucial, with stops ideally placed just below the 3050 support region.
10. Overall, this setup offers a compelling long trade backed by technical structure and market momentum.
Gold Trade Plan 30/04/2025Dear Traders,
Gold has once again entered the 3275 support zone. Given that this is the fifth time it has tested this support, I expect the price to break below it. Additionally, the dollar index has entered a reversal phase. Good buying zones are around 3200–3220.
if you enjoyed this forecast, please show your support with a like and comment. Your feedback is what drives me to keep creating valuable content."
Regards,
Alireza!
Your ULTIMATE Guide For Time Frames in Gold, Forex Trading
If you just started trading, you are probably wondering what time frames to trade. In the today's post, I will reveal the difference between mainstream time frames like daily, 4h, 1h, 15m.
Firstly, you should know that the selection of a time frame primarily depends on your goals in trading. If you are interested in swing trading strategies, of course, you should concentrate on higher time frames analysis while for scalping the main focus should be on lower time frames.
Daily time frame shows a bigger picture.
It can be applied for the analysis of a price action for the last weeks, months, and even years.
It reveals the historical key levels that can be relevant for swing traders, day traders and scalpers.
The patterns that are formed on a daily time frame may predict long-term movements.
In the picture above, you can see how the daily time frame can show the price action for the last years, months and weeks.
In contrast, hourly time frame reflects intra week & intraday perspectives.
The patterns and key levels that are spotted there, will be important for day traders and scalpers.
The setups that are spotted on an hourly time frame, will be useful for predicting the intraday moves and occasionally the moves within a trading week.
Take a look at the 2 charts above, the hourly time frame perfectly shows the market moves within a week and within a single day.
4H time frame is somewhere in between. For both swing trader and day trader, it may provide some useful confirmations.
4H t.f shows intra week and week to week perspectives.
Above, you can see how nicely 4H time frame shows the price action on EURUSD within a week and for the last several weeks.
15 minutes time frame is a scalping time frame.
The setups and levels that are spotted there can be used to predict the market moves within hours or within a trading session.
Check the charts above: 15 minutes time frame shows both the price action within a London session and the price action for the last couple of hours.
It is also critical to mention, that lower is the time frame, lower is the accuracy of the patterns and lower is the strength of key levels that are identified there. It makes higher time frame analysis more simple and reliable.
The thing is that higher is the time frame, more important it is for the market participants.
While lower time frames can help to predict short term moves, higher time frames are aimed for predicting long-term trends.
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GOLD → Consolidation. Traders are waiting for news...FX:XAUUSD remains in consolidation at 3370-3270. Traders are in no hurry to take any action, as there is a lot of important news ahead. Let's take a closer look at the situation...
On Wednesday, gold is trading lower, remaining in a sideways range as traders await the release of US GDP data for the first quarter. A sharp slowdown in growth is expected, and a possible contraction in the economy could increase bets on a Fed rate cut and support gold. Meanwhile, the dollar is holding steady amid tariff news and expectations for key employment and inflation data.
A retest of the range support is forming. The approach is quite sharp, and the pre-breakout potential has been exhausted. A false breakout of support could trigger an upward correction.
Support levels: 3270, 3245
Resistance levels: 3314, 3329, 3352
If the dollar continues to fall after the news, this could support gold and the price could continue to trade between 3370 and 3270. Unpredictable news could trigger a breakout and a fall.
Best regards, R. Linda!
GOLD Gold’s Trade Relationship with the US Dollar and Bond Market (May 2025)
1. Inverse Correlation Between Gold and the US Dollar
Gold and the US Dollar Index (DXY) typically move in opposite directions. When the dollar weakens, gold prices tend to rise, and vice versa. This inverse relationship remains strong in 2025, with gold’s beta to the dollar shifting to around -0.7, amplifying the negative correlation.
The US dollar has weakened about 8–9% year-to-date in 2025, contributing to gold’s surge to record highs above $3,500 per ounce.
Dollar weakness is driven by factors such as slowing US growth forecasts, political uncertainty around Federal Reserve independence, and declining foreign demand for US Treasuries.
2. Gold’s Role as a Safe Haven Amid Bond Market Dynamics
In 2025, gold has increasingly become the preferred safe-haven asset, especially as US Treasuries and the dollar have faced sell-offs.
The bond market has experienced rising yields (e.g., 30-year Treasury yields hitting highs not seen since late 2023), which traditionally would pressure gold. However, geopolitical tensions, trade uncertainties, and concerns about real yields have driven investors toward gold instead of bonds.
Gold’s correlation with real yields has shifted strongly negative (around -0.78), meaning that as real yields fall or remain negative, gold prices rise. Negative real interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, enhancing its appeal.
3. Impact of Monetary Policy and Inflation Expectations
The Federal Reserve’s high nominal rates combined with inflation running above target have created negative real interest rates (nominal rates minus inflation), which historically support gold’s price appreciation.
Expansionary monetary policies globally, including increased money supply growth (M2 up 8.3% YoY among G20 nations), provide liquidity that fuels gold demand.
Tariff-induced inflation and geopolitical risks further elevate gold’s status as a hedge against monetary and trade policy uncertainty.
4. Summary of the Relationship
US Dollar Weakness then Gold price rises (inverse correlation) and Dollar declines.
Rising Bond Yields is Usually bearish for gold, but offset by safe-haven demand in 2025 Yields rise, bonds sell off
Negative Real Yields is Strongly bullish for gold Real yields fall, reducing bond attractiveness
Geopolitical/Tariff Uncertainty Boosts gold as safe haven Increases volatility in dollar and bond markets
Monetary Expansion (Liquidity) Supports gold price Can pressure dollar value
Conclusion
In May 2025, gold’s price surge to record levels is primarily driven by a weaker US dollar and negative real bond yields, combined with geopolitical and trade uncertainties that have diminished the safe-haven appeal of US Treasuries. While rising nominal bond yields might typically weigh on gold, the prevailing negative real rates and investor preference for gold as a monetary hedge have reversed this trend. The strong inverse correlation between gold and the dollar remains a key dynamic shaping market behavior.
GOLD - Price can correct to support area and then bounce upHi guys, this is my overview for XAUUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
A few moments ago price entered to rising channel, where it at once broke $2885 level and reached resistance line of channel.
Then it corrected and then continued to move up in channel, but later it dropped to support area.
Price soon rose above $2885 level, making a fake breakout and after retesting this level, continued to grow.
Later Gold reached resistance line of channel and then made correction movement, exiting from channel and entered to pennant.
In pennant pattern, price made upward impulse, breaking $3275 level and at the moment it trades near $3275 level.
I think that Gold can exit from pennant, decline to support area, and then bounce up to $3440
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Gold Bears Won Big – Here’s the Next Resistance to WatchYesterday was a great day for Gold bears – just as anticipated, price dropped nearly 1,000 pips and hit my target zone around 3200.
After such a strong move, we’re now seeing a typical rebound, which might offer a fresh opportunity to sell into strength and ride the prevailing trend.
🔍 Key Zone:
- 3270 now acts as resistance.
- If price stalls here, it’s the ideal area to look for short entries targeting a retest of 3200.
🛠️ Plan: Sell spikes into 3270 resistance and stay with the trend.
Gold XAUUSD Possible Move 01-02 May 2025📉 Gold Technical Outlook
Gold has decisively broken a key support zone between $3,268–$3,274, now trading near the $3,210-20 level. This move comes amid a clear downtrend structure, with price action respecting a well-defined descending trendline.
🔍 Current Technical Context:
Trend: Bearish
Support Turned Resistance: $3,268–$3,274
Immediate Support: $3,210–$3,220
Resistance: Trendline and previous support zone near $3,270
A retest of the broken support zone could offer a high-risk, high-reward shorting opportunity, especially if price fails to reclaim it. However, a clean break below the $3,210–$3,220 support could trigger another aggressive selloff, with downside targets potentially extending below $3,160.
📊 Key Drivers (Geopolitical/Fundamentals)
US Dollar Strength: The USD remains firm despite mixed economic data, applying pressure on gold prices.
Geopolitical Easing: Reduced US-China tensions are weighing on safe-haven flows, as US approaches China for talks on tariffs.
Russia-Ukarine: Russia declaring cease-fire for a week.
Technical Pullback: Gold is correcting after a strong rejection from the $3,500 zone.
Profit-Taking: Recent rejection led to bearish closes as traders locked in gains.
Liquidity Considerations: With May 1 being a public holiday in many regions, lower liquidity could amplify volatility.
Event Risk Ahead: Caution prevails ahead of key macro events including Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and the FOMC statement.
📝 Strategy Notes:
Sell-on-Rally Zone: $3,268–$3,274 (if price retests and rejects)
Bearish Continuation Trigger: Break and close below $3,210
Invalidation for Bears: Sustained reclaim of $3,274 and a break above the trendline
Stay nimble and monitor for reactions around the highlighted zones as event-driven volatility can cause swift moves.
“Gold Poised for a Big Move Ahead of NFP – Reversal or BreakdownGold (XAU/USD) is approaching a major decision zone just before the highly anticipated NFP release. Price is reacting from a strong demand area (3,240–3,200), hinting at potential upside if momentum builds. A break above the descending trendline could fuel a rally toward 3,320 and 3,480.
However, a negative reaction to NFP might push gold down to test the deeper 3,168–3,134 support zone before bouncing.
This setup aligns perfectly with high-impact news – Follow for live updates and smart trade ideas during NFP!
Gold awaits NFP after serious decline I expectedAs discussed throughout my yesterday's session commentary: "Technical analysis: Gold is being kept below the Hourly 4 chart’s Resistance zone of #3,292.80 - #3,300.80 despite the rejection on DX and continuous rise on equities, Gold didn’t manage to prepare the terrain for further the uptrend, according to my Technical estimations. Besides the High Selling Volume and evident Price-action showcasing of Bearish trend switch, #3,262.80 Support I mentioned which was about to be tested was invalidated and naturally Gold is on a decline (as I expected it throughout my recent remarks) and is Technicals what's keeping Gold Lower, relative to circumstances. Regardless of that, the Daily chart’s Support (Medium-term) is Trading just few points below, at #3,200.80, if broken it can open doors for #3,127.80 extension and Support mark test and is alone a positive development for Sellers ahead of the end of the Trading week."
Technical analysis: Daily chart remains isolated within solid Descending Channel and being Bearish indicates a Short-term Selling opportunity towards #3,200.80 psychological mark if Support gets invalidated and NFP delivers upside surprise (what I indeed expect). Keep an eye on the DX especially when the U.S. session opens (Bullish Gap fill) throughout today’s session in order to get more information and pointers of the Intra-day direction. Gold got rejected at #3,200.80 - #3,227.80 Medium-term Support zone (many rejections on current pressure point) and since the pullback wasn’t Bought back above the Hourly 1 chart’s Buying accumulation zone, current Price-action points that the Selling sentiment remains unchanged as this is just one of early Trading weeks in May. That keeps the Hourly 4 chart’s Descending Channel valid (already converted to a Bearish Flag / messenger of Selling continuation ahead), with #3,262.80 configuration currently representing it’s local Lower High’s Upper zone).
Gold on Edge – Will NFP Trigger the Next Big Move?🚨 Gold at a Crossroads – Will NFP & White House Comments Trigger a Volatility Spike? ⚡
🧭 Macro Overview
Gold enters the US session with a mild rebound after a sharp selloff, following its historic climb to $3,500/oz. The recent drop was driven less by fundamentals and more by aggressive profit-taking, especially from retail flows in Asia, notably China.
Rather than a trend reversal, this correction looks like a healthy technical reset, just ahead of two major catalysts:
1️⃣ US Non-Farm Payrolls (May edition)
2️⃣ White House remarks on tariffs and trade strategy
These two factors will likely define gold’s direction heading into next week — either toward deeper support zones or a potential recovery rally into resistance.
📊 DXY & Macro Market Lens
The US Dollar Index (DXY) has bounced off its base near 98.xx, currently testing the 100.00 level. Whether the dollar strengthens further depends largely on today’s labour data and fiscal signals from Washington.
Traders should remain tactically neutral, relying on intraday timeframes like H1/H2 and respecting key price structure.
🔺 Key Resistance Levels
3,260
3,275
3,285
3,312
🔻 Key Support Levels
3,244
3,230
3,215
3,200
🎯 Trade Plan – Friday 3rd May, 2025
🔵 BUY ZONE A:
Entry: 3,232 – 3,230
SL: 3,226
TP: 3,236 → 3,240 → 3,244 → 3,248 → 3,252 → 3,256 → 3,260
🔵 BUY ZONE B:
Entry: 3,214 – 3,212
SL: 3,208
TP: 3,218 → 3,222 → 3,226 → 3,230 → 3,235 → 3,240
🔴 SELL ZONE:
Entry: 3,276 – 3,278
SL: 3,282
TP: 3,272 → 3,268 → 3,264 → 3,260 → 3,250
⚠️ Final Notes
Volatility may spike sharply during the NY session as NFP and political news collide.
This is the kind of session where traders can either capitalize massively or get caught offside — stay disciplined.
Avoid emotional entries — let price come to you, wait for confirmation, and stick to your TP/SL.
📣 Conclusion
We’re likely in a calm-before-the-storm scenario. Gold hasn’t made its real move yet — but when it does, it’ll be swift.
Prepare. Execute. Protect your capital.
XAUUSD: 30/4 Today’s Market Analysis and StrategyGold technical analysis
The resistance level of the four-hour chart is 3330, and the support level is 3260.
The resistance level of the one-hour chart is 3307, and the support level is 3275.
The resistance level of the 30-minute chart is 3300, and the support level is 3280.
The 4H cycle is a horizontal box operation. This week is a data week. The gold price is greatly affected by the news. Wait for the NFP data on Friday to break the box operation. Due to the recent market fluctuations, the entry position is very critical. For the time being, focus on the previous support of 3300 today. If the US market stands at 3300, it can be bullish to the 3320~3330 area. On the contrary, if it falls below the 4H and daily support of 3260 US dollars, it may touch the monthly support level of 3230~3200.
There are many news about the US market data today. Wait for the data to be released before trading! Avoid losses caused by increased liquidity during the news release.
Trading strategy:
Buy: 3265 SL:3260
Buy: 3300 SL:3295
Sell: 3330 SL:3335
Sell: 3260 SL:3265
Only provide trading direction, specific entry price, SL/TP need to wait for real-time liquidity confirmation
Is GOLD About to Begin a Bearish Trend or a False Signal?Is GOLD About to Begin a Bearish Trend or a False Signal?
Gold is approaching a critical moment—if the breakout happens, we could see a significant shift in trend. The price is forming a large triangle pattern, which suggests that a decline may be coming soon.
However, caution is needed.
Gold prices have been manipulated for a long time and it will be difficult to spot when the big bearish wave starts.
You may watch the analysis for further details!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
XAU/USD: High Volatility is Expected! (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the gold chart on the 30-minute timeframe, we can see that, as expected, the price began rising from the $3310 zone yesterday and reached $3330, delivering a 200-pip gain.
After that, selling pressure took over, and gold is now trading around $3277. Given the current market structure and today's important news events, I expect high volatility in both bullish and bearish directions.
One of the key liquidity pools likely to be targeted today lies below $3259, and before any potential drop, we may see the liquidity gap between $3288 and $3303 being filled.
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Market Analysis – Labor Day Sell-Off & Key Levels [4h]TFMarket Analysis – Labor Day Sell-Off & Key Levels
Labor Day kicked off with a major sell-off during the Asian session, breaking structure as price plummeted from 3292.88 to 3221.40 before the EU session’s opening bell (2025-05-01). Whether this shocked traders or not, one thing became evident—3292 is a critical level, coinciding with the monthly Fibonacci level.
An overstretched price rise inevitably needs correction, and that confirmation has arrived. For a meaningful bull run, price must breach 3292 with strong momentum to signal recovery. Failure to reclaim this level will keep bearish sentiment alive for a while longer.
Key Levels to Monitor – 4H Timeframe
Bullish Signals
Watch for 4H candle closes at:
🔹 Above 3243 → Potential short-term bullish opportunity, range 3243-3263.
🔹 Above 3263 → Swing opportunity toward 3322, though consolidation may still form as bulls resist further decline.
🔹 Recovery attempt? Key bullish ranges to monitor: 3322 / 3332 / 3339 / 3342 / 3356 / 3363 / 3403. Stay tuned.
🔹 Major upside continuation → If price holds above 3403, broader global economic conditions may not be in great shape, potentially contradicting gold’s safe-haven narrative.
Bearish Signals
On the downside, bears haven’t shown full conviction yet—but keep an eye on:
🔻 Immediate important levels: 3200 / 3167 / 3134 / 3080 / 3057 / 3030 / 3005 / 2999 / 2966 / 2961 / 2952
🔻 Short-term bearish opportunities: 3253 / 3242 / 3232 / 3227 / 3211 / 3209 / 3200 / 3195 / 3185 / 3181 / 3178 / 3169.
🔻 While many traders favor these ranges, personally, I prefer locking in on key levels.
Final Thoughts
Markets tell a story—we just need to show up early to catch the best opportunities.
✅ Be independent. Be smart. Be confident.
✅ Trade with clarity—no rush, no noise, no distractions.
✅ Wait for confirmations. Then act.