GOLD | XAU vs BTC: Threat of Nuclear WarI'm opening my 10th position and here's my analysis: Have you seen how fast this big guy moves? Let’s discuss two scenarios and three assets.
Here’s the 1st scenario:
XAU, like BTC, is on steroids. The steroid is called "Global Nuclear War Threat." Countries in the 2nd and 3rd worlds, having easy access to BTC, use it as a safe haven. Meanwhile, 1st-world countries understand that their gold reserves might save them if something goes really wrong.
And what could go wrong? Russia could get angry, rally its close friends from BRICS, and they might all declare, "Enough of using these green papers." The U.S. economy—or at least its currency—could collapse, and what will save the day? Orange rock reserves.
Someone else might ask, "Wait, then why is the DXY rising?" That’s an even stronger sign of escalating tensions. Everyone is preparing for war, arms trading is increasing, and transactions are still happening with green papers. By the way, DXY is in Bullish Flag right now, so yes, it'll probably keep going up.
So, DXY rises, XAU rises, and BTC rises? Exactly.
DXY: Getting some extra cash because of the war.
XAU: Your safety net if things go... Armageddonish.
BTC: The backup plan when gold's out of reach + to make some money before everyone is dead.
Now, here’s the 2nd scenario:
Everything I said above is complete nonsense. And it’s all just market manipulation to gather the stop losses of those who think along these lines.
It’s important to understand that even if everything sounds logical and reasonable, we can’t be entirely certain about any scenario in such a really volatile situation.
But on the other hand, we should ask ourselves: is it really that unlikely for gold to reach $2,700? I don’t think it’s far-fetched, and opening a position with a maximally safe strategy shouldn’t lead to much pain. Even if it drops 100-500 pips, we’ll get back to 2700 sooner or later, right? I’m not even joking here, so keep that in mind too.
Listen, at this point, it’s safe to admit this is a pure race and competition between BTC and XAU: $100,000 vs. $2,700. Which one will get there first? Honestly, it doesn’t matter in my opinion—they’ll both hit those targets in the coming days.
I’m opening my 10th position, and it’ll be long:
Opening: 2680
Take Profit: 2700
Stop Loss: 2610
As I always say, never use your entire deposit, and never set your stop loss too close.
Now, let’s watch and see! I hope you all safe! ☕️
