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GOLD / US DOLLAR KILOGOLD / US DOLLAR KILOGOLD / US DOLLAR KILO

GOLD / US DOLLAR KILO

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XAUUSDK trade ideas

GOLD 1. Gold and Dollar Index (DXY) Correlation Gold and the US dollar (DXY) typically have a strong inverse correlation. When the dollar strengthens, gold tends to weaken because gold becomes more expensive for holders of other currencies, reducing demand. Conversely, a weaker dollar supports gold prices by making it cheaper internationally. However, during periods of geopolitical tension or market stress, both gold and the dollar can rise simultaneously as safe-haven assets. In 2025, gold has shown resilience despite some dollar strength due to inflation concerns and central bank purchases. 2. Gold and Current Interest Rates / 10-Year Bond Yield The current US 10-year Treasury yield is approximately 4.41% to 4.54% (latest data from May 21 to May 30, 2025). Interest rates and bond yields have an inverse relationship with gold prices, primarily through the impact of real interest rates (nominal yield minus inflation). Rising nominal yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, typically pressuring gold prices. However, if inflation expectations rise faster than nominal yields, real yields can remain low or negative, supporting gold demand. Recent Fed concerns about stagflation and inflation have kept real yields low, supporting gold prices despite elevated nominal yields. 3. Gold and Bond Prices Bond prices and yields move inversely: when bond prices rise, yields fall, and vice versa. Rising bond prices (falling yields) generally support gold prices, as lower yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold. Conversely, falling bond prices (rising yields) tend to pressure gold. As of late May 2025, bond prices have been relatively stable but with some downward pressure reflecting inflation and fiscal concerns. 4. Carry Trade Advantage Related to Gold Carry trade involves borrowing in low-interest-rate currencies and investing in higher-yielding assets or currencies. Gold carry trades involve borrowing gold at low leasing rates and investing the proceeds in higher-yielding instruments. The carry trade advantage depends on the interest rate differential and gold lease rates; low gold lease rates and high interest rate differentials favor carry trades. Changes in interest rates and bond yields influence carry trade flows indirectly by affecting currency valuations and the cost of financing gold positions. When interest rate differentials widen in favor of a currency, that currency strengthens, which can pressure gold prices denominated in that currency. Summary Table Factor Current Status (May 2025) Correlation with Gold Key Notes Dollar Index (DXY) Around 98.4, testing key support Inverse Dollar strength pressures gold, exceptions in crises US 10-Year Treasury Yield ~4.41% - 4.54% Inverse (via real yields) Higher nominal yields pressure gold unless inflation rises faster Bond Prices Slight downward pressure Positive Rising bond prices support gold by lowering yields Interest Rates (Fed Funds) Fed funds ~4.25%, markets pricing cuts later in 2025 Inverse Rate hikes increase opportunity cost of gold Carry Trade Advantage Dependent on currency yield differentials Indirect Wider differentials can strengthen currencies, impacting gold Conclusion Gold prices remain inversely correlated with the US dollar and real interest rates. Despite elevated nominal 10-year yields (~4.4%), gold is supported by low or negative real yields due to inflation concerns. Bond price movements, reflecting yield changes, also influence gold indirectly through opportunity costs. Carry trade dynamics, driven by interest rate differentials, affect currency strength and thus gold prices, with low gold lease rates enhancing carry trade profitability. Monitoring DXY trends, inflation-adjusted yields, and central bank policies is essential to understanding gold’s near- and medium-term price movements. #GOLD #DOLLAR
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
Gold Drops to 3250 – Sell-the-Spike Strategy Still in Play🕰️ What Happened Yesterday In yesterday’s analysis, I argued that the 3320–3330 zone should act as a strong sell zone, with a target down at the 3250 support. Gold respected the plan perfectly: it dropped from the 3325 area straight into 3250 during the Asia session, hitting the target with precision(700+ pips) At the time of writing, Gold is now bouncing, which is normal, trading around 3280. ❓ Correction Done or More to Come? While the bounce to 3280 may look promising for bulls, my opinion remains unchanged: this is still a market to sell rallies, not to buy dips. 🔎 Why I Still Expect a Deeper Drop - Old support becomes resistance – The 3280–3285 zone, once support, is now acting as resistance. That zone is currently being tested. - Double resistance near 3300 – Just above, we have the psychological 3300 level, reinforced by the falling trendline coming from recent highs. - Momentum still favors the downside – Unless bulls can reclaim and hold above 3300, this rebound is nothing more than a dead-cat bounce. 📉 Trading Plan I remain in sell-the-spike mode. Any move into 3285 or 3300 is an opportunity to enter short, with stops above the trend line or yesterday's high. If price breaks back below 3265, the probability increases for a new local low under 3250, probably to the next one around 3215. ✅ Final Thoughts Yesterday’s setup worked perfectly — and the plan doesn’t change just because of a small bounce. The market needs to prove it can break key resistance before shifting bias. Until then, this remains a sell-on-strength market. Let the trades come to you. 🚀 Disclosure: I am part of TradeNation 's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
TRADENATION:XAUUSDShort
by Mihai_Iacob
How to Trade Gold Market with the 50% Retracement CandleHey Traders so today wanted to show why you don't really need indicators to trade. Price action is the best way to trade imo because it's easier. For the most part indicators lag and can give you false signals. So if you are looking for a way to trade that does not involve indicators check this out. So we can see that Gold is in a strong uptrend the strategy is wait until market pulls back to trendline and buy but what if you miss that pullback? So you can still get in the uptrend look for a strong bullish candle like the one I highlighted on May 20. Then place an order to buy when the market pulls back to 50% of that candle. Measure it with the Fibonacci tool. Place your stop below the low of the candle or under support so that way you most likely won't get stopped out. Now this trade was textbook but not all of them are check out how as soon as it hit the 50% retracement of that candle market rocketed higher! There you go simple way to trade and no need for complex indicators! This strategy works in all markets! Always use Risk Management! (Just in case your wrong in your analysis most experts recommend never to risk more than 2% of your account equity on any given trade.) Hope This Helps Your Trading 😃 Clifford
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDEducation
by TradeTheIndex
XAUUSD - Will Gold Continue to Fall?!Gold is trading in its ascending channel on the 1-hour timeframe, between the EMA200 and EMA50. I expect the direction ahead for gold to be bullish and if it breaks the downtrend line, we can look for buying opportunities. The U.S. dollar rose following a decision by the United States Court of International Trade to revoke tariffs imposed by Donald Trump. Since the Trump administration, there have been continual developments regarding tariffs, and this latest ruling, which blocks Trump’s retaliatory tariffs, has stirred uncertainty and confusion over its legal validity. The ruling also triggered a correction in gold’s upward trend. According to the U.S. Constitution, the power to impose tariffs officially resides with Congress. However, since 1962, much of this authority has been delegated to the executive branch. Courts have historically upheld this delegation to the president, but this recent judgment casts doubt on the legitimacy of such executive powers. The pressing question now is whether Trump can circumvent the ruling. Could he potentially ignore it or take counteraction? Any move by Trump in response would undoubtedly ripple through the financial markets. Goldman Sachs has characterized the court’s decision as a new obstacle for Trump’s trade strategy, though it notes the ruling only applies to part of the tariffs.Analysts at the firm believe Trump may find legal or procedural means to work around the court’s decision, possibly introducing new strategies to maintain his tariff agenda. Citing customs data, ING commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey reported that despite record-high prices, China’s gold imports reached their highest level in eleven months last month. Since the beginning of the year, gold prices have surged by more than 20%. Total gold imports climbed to 127.5 metric tons, marking a 73% increase from the previous month. This sharp rise followed the People’s Bank of China’s issuance of new import quotas to select commercial banks in April. With a year-to-date gain exceeding 20%, gold hit an all-time high of $3,500 per ounce in April. Key drivers of this rally include geopolitical risk and sustained purchases by central banks. In the broader metals sector, China’s refined copper production in April reached a new monthly record, rising 9% year-on-year to 1.25 million metric tons, even as processing fees remained low. Meanwhile, lead production declined by 1% from the previous year to 664,000 tons, while zinc output edged up by 0.3% to 576,000 tons. According to the International Aluminium Institute, global aluminum production in April remained flat compared to the prior month, averaging 201,100 metric tons per day. However, on a year-over-year basis, output increased by 2.24%.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
XAU/USD on the 45-minute timeframeSupport Zone Rejection (around 3,250 USD): Price sharply reversed after testing a key support area (highlighted with a circle). Volume increased at the reversal point, signaling strong buyer interest. Break Above Minor Resistance (~3,280 USD): Price has broken above the immediate resistance level with strong bullish momentum. A bullish candle has closed above this zone, indicating a potential continuation. Next Target Resistance Zones: First Target: Around 3,320 USD, which aligns with a previous structural high and supply zone. Final Target: Around 3,345–3,350 USD, representing a major resistance zone and previous swing high. Trade Plan: Entry: Above 3,280 (already in motion). Target 1: 3,320 Target 2: 3,345–3,350 Stop Loss: Below 3,260 (below recent low and support zone) Bullish Structure: Higher low has been established. Momentum is supported by volume confirmation
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by KingProTrader
Market next move 🔻 Disruption to Bullish Thesis 1. Resistance Zone Near Target The "Target" area might align with a previous resistance level (historically where price has reversed or consolidated). If price hits that zone, it could stall or reject, rather than break through. 2. Bearish Volume Divergence While the candles are green and pushing upward, volume is not increasing significantly. Lack of strong buying volume can suggest a weak rally — potentially a bull trap. 3. Trend Context: Larger Downtrend The chart shows a strong prior downtrend before the recent small upward push. This move could be a dead-cat bounce or retracement within a broader bearish move. 4. Fundamental Risk: USD Strength If the US Dollar Index (DXY) strengthens due to macroeconomic data or Fed commentary, gold (USD-denominated) typically drops. The calendar icons suggest upcoming US economic data, which could disrupt gold’s movement. 5. Candle Structure Shows Exhaustion The current bullish candles are smaller compared to previous strong red ones. This may imply momentum exhaustion before reaching the target.
TVC:GOLDLong
by Gold_Free_Signals
Hanzo / Gold 30min Path ( Confirmed Breakout Zones )🆚 Gold The Path of Precision – Hanzo’s Market tactics 🔥 Key Levels & Breakout Strategy – 30 M TF ————- ☄️ Bullish Setup After Break Out – 3315 Zone Price must break liquidity with high volume to confirm the move. 💯 Reasons : / 2025 Retest of 3315 - 09 / May ( Wick's + Rejections ) - 21 / May ( Break + Pump ) - 22 / May ( Break + Retest ) - 23 / May ( Break + Pump ) - 27 / May ( Break + Retest ) 👌 3315 key level Volume is High Volume And the most Cluster Area and also have solid HVN Volume —————- ☄️ Bearish Setup After Break Out – 3283 Zone Price must break liquidity with high volume to confirm the move. 💯 Reasons : / 2025 Retest of 3283 - 12 / May ( Bearish Retest ) - 20 / May ( Wick Retest at same point ) - 21 / May ( Wick Retest And Pump ) - 22 / May ( Wick Retest at same point ) - 27 / May ( Wick Retest And Pump ) Hanzo / Gold 30min Path ( Confirmed Breakout Zones )
TVC:GOLD
by Path_Of_Hanzo
Is Gold’s Recovery Pausing or Gaining Momentum?Macro approach: - Gold rebounded sharply from mid-May lows, fueled by renewed safe-haven demand following Moody’s downgrade of the US credit rating. - However, the rally lost momentum near a two-week high as profit-taking and easing US-EU trade tensions cooled demand. - Longer-term fundamentals remain supportive, with persistent central bank buying, particularly from China, underpinning bullish sentiment. Technical approach: - Technically, XAUUSD broke above its descending channel and retested the breakout. The price remains range-bound between 3285 and 3560, and we await a clear breakout. - Closing above 3560 could open to 3430. - On the contrary, a break below 3285 risks a decline toward 3135. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
ICMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by DatTong
2
XAUUSD Bearish Breakdown| Trend Reversal Bearish Setup Price has broken below the rising channel, showing early signs of a potential bearish reversal. Key Resistance: 3364 Current Price: 3334 Support Levels to Watch: 3282 (first support) 3250 (major target) If price fails to reclaim the channel and retests 3364 without strength, we could see a deeper drop below 3282. A bounce from 3282 might offer short-term buy setups, but momentum favors bears for now. Trade Plan: Short below 3325 with SL above 3364 Target: 3282, extended to 3250 Let me know your thoughts! Are you bullish or bearish here? #technicalanalysis #priceaction #tradingview #USD #bearishsetup
TVC:GOLDShort
by James-Pipstr
XAUUSD.. gold 4H charts pattern I'm outlining a short (SELL) trade setup for XAU/USD (Gold). Here's a breakdown of your trade idea: Entry: 3308 (SELL) First Target (FVG): 3250 (FVG likely refers to a Fair Value Gap – a liquidity target in imbalanced price zones) Final Target: 3140 Let’s assess the setup: Key Points to Consider: 1. Risk Management: Have you set a stop-loss? For this short, a logical SL might be above recent highs or structure – perhaps around 3330–3340. Position sizing is critical depending on account size and risk tolerance. 2. Market Context: Is this based on a higher time frame imbalance, a bearish trend continuation, or news catalyst? Are you following a liquidity sweep strategy or reacting to a key resistance rejection? 3. Technical Confirmation: Confirmation from order blocks, bearish divergence, or break of market structure (BOS) could strengthen your setup. Would you like me to: Analyze the chart if you provide a screenshot? Provide a technical breakdown of current XAUUSD levels? Help calculate risk-to-reward or position size for this trade? Let me know how you'd like to proceed.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Algo_Trading_Mql5
33
Selling pressure, gold price continues to fall below 3285?⭐️GOLDEN INFORMATION: Gold prices declined by nearly 2% on Monday, slipping below the $3,300 mark, as investor sentiment improved following U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to postpone tariffs on European Union imports. The renewed risk appetite, coupled with a modest rebound in the U.S. Dollar from last week’s losses, placed pressure on the non-yielding precious metal. The move came after a weekend call between President Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, which resulted in the U.S. deferring the planned 50% tariffs on EU goods until July 9. The development eased global trade concerns, prompting a shift away from safe-haven assets—excluding the Greenback—and helped propel global equity markets higher. ⭐️Personal comments NOVA: Accumulated price zone around 3300, under selling pressure, mainly waiting for important economic news this week: GDP, FOMC ⭐️SET UP GOLD PRICE: 🔥SELL GOLD zone : 3363- 3365 SL 3370 TP1: $3352 TP2: $3340 TP3: $3325 🔥BUY GOLD zone: $3266- $3268 SL $3261 TP1: $3277 TP2: $3286 TP3: $3300 ⭐️Technical analysis: Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable SELL order. ⭐️NOTE: Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well - take the number of lots that match your capital - Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account - Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Nova-Scalper
1
Today we will focus on the 3281 support Gold fell below 3300, today we focus on the support of 3281 We are making a profit from the long suggestions given during the day, focusing on the support near 3281. If this position is not broken, the price will fluctuate and may re-stand on 3300 and go above 3320. Therefore, we insist on the long idea today, short around 3287-90, stop loss 3280, take profit at 3310-20, pay attention to the risk. May 27 gold short-term trading: long near 3288, stop loss 3280, take profit at 3320 Be careful, if it breaks 3280, it is expected to reach 3260, and you can go bearish.
TVC:GOLDLong
by Yuliya1l11
It seems calm, but there are actually undercurrents!Today, the monthly, weekly and daily lines closed simultaneously. At the same time, the PCE data will be released during the US trading session, and the market volatility may intensify. From a technical point of view, 3285 is also the key to long and short today. If gold does not break 3285 today, the strength of gold bulls is expected to continue, and there is still room for gold to move upward. If gold continues to fall and falls below 3285, then gold may begin to fluctuate in a large range. The upper resistance is in the 3320-3330 area, and the focus is on the 3335-3340 line of suppression. Pay attention to the 3290-3285 line of support below, and the key position below is in the 3280 area. If it breaks below the 3280 area during the day, the market is expected to fall again to the 3265-3250-3240 area.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TP_Daniel5
1