XAUUSDK trade ideas
Gold Rebounds Slightly After Dropping to 3295📊 Market Update:
Gold bounced back to 3320 after dipping to 3295 amid USD strength and rising bond yields. The recovery was fueled by short-covering, but traders remain cautious ahead of upcoming U.S. PCE data – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.
📉 Technical Analysis:
• Key Resistance: 3330
• Nearest Support: 3295
• EMA: Price is hovering near the 09 EMA on the H1 chart → neutral to slightly bullish in short-term correction.
• Candle / Volume / Momentum: H1 candles show mild recovery with increased volume, but no clear reversal signal yet.
📌 Outlook:
Gold may range between 3295 and 3330 before a breakout, depending on incoming U.S. economic data. A break above 3330 could trigger a short-term rally.
XAUUSD – Short-Term Decline, Long-Term Bullish AccumulationAfter a sharp drop of over 1,250 pips yesterday, gold reacted at the key demand zone around 3,300, where initial buying pressure has emerged. The chart still shows a valid short-term downtrend, but this area also aligns with the lower boundary of a long-term channel—previously a launch point for significant upward moves.
Currently, XAUUSD is consolidating below multiple unfilled Fair Value Gaps, awaiting a confirmed breakout toward the 3,361.500 region to potentially reverse the trend.
In terms of news, tensions in the Middle East escalated as the U.S. launched airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, triggering strong volatility in gold. Upcoming key U.S. economic data—including quarterly GDP and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, Core PCE—will play a crucial role in determining whether gold has the momentum to break out or remains in consolidation.
For now, the short-term bias remains bearish, but buyers are quietly accumulating strength for a potential long-term rally.
XAU/USD 25 June 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 23 April 2025
Price has now printed a bearish CHoCH according to my analysis yesterday.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,500.200.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively.
Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Following previous high, and printing of bearish CHoCH, price has pulled back to an M15 supply zone, where we are currently seeing a reaction. Therefore, I shall now confirm internal high.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
The remainder of my analysis shall remain the same as analysis dated 13 June 2025, apart from target price.
As per my analysis dated 22 May 2025 whereby I mentioned price can be seen to be reacting at discount of 50% EQ on H4 timeframe, therefore, it is a viable alternative that price could potentially print a bullish iBOS on M15 timeframe despite internal structure being bearish.
Price has printed a bullish iBOS followed by a bearish CHoCH, which indicates, but does not confirm, bearish pullback phase initiation. I will however continue to monitor, with respect to depth of pullback.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to continue bearish, react at either M15 supply zone, or discount of 50% internal EQ before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,451.375.
Note:
Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance, persistent and escalating geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment.
Additionally, President Trump’s recent tariff announcements are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws.
M15 Chart:
Gold potential short term bullishness Gold prices have found some relief and are experiencing a minor recovery amidst the mixed market sentiment driven by ongoing Middle East tensions, Trump's call for rate cuts, and Fed Chair Powell's hawkish tone. This has led to an interesting market reaction. We might see short-term growth in gold prices after a retest of the liquidity zone below $3,320.
Trap Above? Reversal Brewing or Just a Pullback?Gold (XAUUSD) continues to play mind games near a strong intraday resistance zone. Price formed a nice bullish channel and just tapped into the reversal zone near 3335, aligning with past supply and liquidity sweep potential.
⚔️ After a Ch.o.C (Change of Character) broke minor structure, it’s likely we see:
A deeper reversal toward support at 3323.450
Or a full breakdown heading into the FVG zone near 3308–3310
If we get a selling confirmation breakout, expect a flush back into imbalance & maybe beyond 👇
📉 Technical Bias: Bearish Rejection Setup
🧠 Sentiment: Watching for sell signals post-liquidation
📍 Key Zone: 3330–3335 = SELL Interest
🔔 Trigger: Watch 3323.450 for clean confirmation
💬 Note for traders: This could be the “trap” before NY liquidity kicks in — manage risk tight!
GOLD Outlook: Bullish Above 3379, Correction Likely BelowGOLD – Technical Overview
Gold maintains bullish momentum, driven by heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which are increasing safe-haven demand.
The price is approaching the pivot level at 3379. A confirmed 1-hour close above this level would likely extend the bullish trend toward 3393 and 3404.
However, if the price remains below 3379, we may see a short-term bearish correction toward 3364, potentially dipping as low as 3339 before resuming the upward trend.
Key Levels
• Pivot: 3379
• Resistance: 3393, 3404
• Support: 3364, 3339
Gold:bullish wedge inside a rising channel-double trap for bearsInside the major upward channel, gold formed a falling wedge — and, of course, faked a breakdown. But the move reversed quickly: price reclaimed the wedge, surged on volume, and held above the key 3363–3368 area. This isn't just a bounce — it's a structural reclaim in line with the broader trend.
Price is now in the upper part of the rising channel and has broken a local downtrend line, reinforcing the bullish signal. Consolidation around 3380–3395 might be the last pause before acceleration. Above that lies a volume gap — no resistance until 3452.
MACD is flipping bullish, RSI turning upward, and volume confirms smart money presence. Classic: trap below, breakout above. As long as 3363 holds — longs remain in control.
the best time to make money### XAUUSD – 15m Game Plan (June 25)
**Context**
- London/NY overlap printed a sharp push into intraday supply @ **3329-3335**.
- Immediate rejection left a long upper wick, suggesting remaining sell-side liquidity up there.
- Key demand/OB sits @ **3300-3305** (round number + H1 bullish OB).
---
#### Base scenario
I expect price to sweep liquidity around **3300-3305**, print a bullish rejection and then target
**3340-3345** (day-range extension & 4 h imbalance).
> **Buy zone:** 3300-3305
> **Invalidation:** clean close < 3295
> **First TP:** 3330-3335 (~100 pips)
> **Final TP:** 3340-3345
---
#### Alternate (aggressive) scalp
Should price revisit **3329-3335** and show a clear rejection (15 m bearish engulf / long upper wick),
I’ll consider a short toward **3315 → 3305** with stops above **3336**.
Scalp only – will stand aside into major US data releases.
---
> 🚩 **Risk note:** Gold is extremely headline-sensitive this week – no position will be left open through tier-1 news. Always manage risk – max 1 % per trade.
GOLD → Consolidation within a falling wedgeFX:XAUUSD is consolidating. A major player is gathering a trading position inside a wedge ahead of distribution. But the main question is: in which direction?
Gold lost ground again on Friday after mixed holiday trading on Thursday. Traders are waiting for new signals from the Fed and monitoring the situation in the Middle East. Interestingly, gold fell as the conflict escalated further (which is not logical overall). The dollar is in a global bearish trend, and traders are waiting for a decision from Powell (who is under pressure from Trump to cut rates).
Technically, if we look at the wedge, we can see how difficult it is for the market to move. The price is stuck inside the consolidation. The intraday movement is very short, with long tails and a very weak reaction to both false breakouts and level break. Large players are building up positions inside the current channel. This may only hint at the possibility of future implementation (distribution).
Resistance levels: 3360, 3396, 3420
Support levels: 3338, 3320, 3302
On D1 - H4, gold is in a countertrend (bullish trend) correction and is testing the trend support + 0.7 Fibo zone. Below, there are fairly strong areas of interest — 3320 and 3302 — which gold may test before rising. However, within the wedge, there is a fairly high probability of a breakout of resistance and the 3360 level, followed by a rally to the liquidity zone at 3396
Best regards, R. Linda!
Midweek XAUUSD Insight | Dual View SetupPair: XAUUSD
Bias: Bullish
HTF Overview (Left Panel – 3H): Price action has been moving within bullish structure, with a major higher low currently holding strong. This HL is the key pivot I’m watching for continuation.
Refinement Zone (Middle – 30M): We’ve tapped into a 30M OB and are now sitting in mitigation territory. No signs of reversal yet, but the setup is maturing.
Entry Technique (Right Panel – 15M View): Just waiting for that classic Smart Money confirmation — LTF CHoCH, liquidity sweep, then return into OB. Will refine down to 5M for precise entry if price plays out clean.
Entry Zone: Waiting on confirmation around the OB zone
Target Zones: Based on HTF structure continuation
🧠 Mindset Note: Setup is solid, but patience wins. Let the story unfold — we only strike with clarity and precision.
Bless Trading!
GOLD recovers market overview, key outlookOANDA:XAUUSD is under downward pressure, and ended last week's trading session with a decline. With tensions in the Middle East easing slightly and the Federal Reserve giving a hawkish signal, the safe-haven demand in the gold market tends to weaken, and investors' profit-taking intentions increase, these are the main reasons why gold recorded a significant correction this week.
Gold prices fell last week as safe-haven demand weakened as tensions in the Middle East temporarily eased. President Trump said he would decide on military action against Iran in the next two weeks, a concession that helped ease fears of an escalation. Although Iran continued to launch missiles at Israel, the situation has not spread. However, the Middle East conflict remains risky and is unlikely to end completely.
Gold prices are under pressure due to the Fed's hawkish tone. Although the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, Chairman Powell warned of inflation risks, especially from Trump's new tax policies. At the same time, Mr. Chris Waller's statement showed that the possibility of a July interest rate cut also depends on the inflation situation, causing market expectations to decrease and negatively affecting gold - a non-interest-bearing asset.
Central banks and institutions maintain bullish medium- and long-term expectations
Despite short-term pressures, most institutions maintain positive medium-term expectations for gold. Goldman Sachs reiterated its target of $4,000/oz by 2025, while Citigroup believes gold could fall below $3,000/oz by 2026.
Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold has once again bounced from the EMA21 and reached its initial upside target at the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement of $3,371, as noted in previous editions. For now, for gold to qualify for its next upside target at the raw price of $3,400, it needs to sustain price action above the 0.236% Fibonacci level, which means the 0.236% Fibonacci level is also the closest resistance at present.
Once gold breaks above the raw price point of $3,400, it will be in a position to continue its short-term rally with a target of around $3,435, rather than the all-time high of $3,500.
In terms of overall structure, gold still has a bullish outlook with the price channel as the main trend and RSI remaining above 50 and well away from the overbought zone, suggesting that there is still plenty of upside ahead.
In the case of a sell-off, if gold is sold below the EMA21, it could test the $3,320 support in the short term, more so the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level converging with the lower edge of the price channel. Therefore, early long positions may be considered in terms of volume as well as protection of open positions.
Finally, technically, gold is still trending with an overall bullish outlook, with notable positions listed as follows.
Support: $3,350 – $3,320 – $3,300
Resistance: $3,371 – $3,400 – $3,435 – $3,500
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3406 - 3404⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3410
→Take Profit 1 3398
↨
→Take Profit 2 3392
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3312 - 3314⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3308
→Take Profit 1 3320
↨
→Take Profit 2 3326
Middle East War - Gold Price Increases✍️ NOVA hello everyone, Let's comment on gold price next week from 06/23/2025 - 06/27/2025
⭐️GOLDEN INFORMATION:
Gold prices held steady on Friday, hovering near $3,369 and on track to post a weekly loss of nearly 1.90%, as markets digested US President Donald Trump’s decision to forgo immediate military action against Iran in favor of a diplomatic approach. At the time of writing, XAU/USD is down 0.11%.
While easing geopolitical tensions helped lift risk sentiment, additional pressure on gold emerged from concerns over potential US restrictions on allies operating semiconductor plants in China, as reported by Bloomberg. Trump's restraint on Iran encouraged a risk-on tone, weighing on the appeal of the safe-haven metal.
⭐️Personal comments NOVA:
Middle East tensions escalate, gold prices continue to recover above 3400, early next week
🔥 Technically:
Based on the resistance and support areas of the gold price according to the H4 frame, NOVA identifies the important key areas as follows:
Resistance: $3395, $3448
Support: $3302, $3256
🔥 NOTE:
Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well
- take the number of lots that match your capital
- Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account
- Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
- The winner is the one who sticks with the market the longest
Gold remains weak and is expected to fall below 3,300
Gold fell today due to the news of a comprehensive ceasefire in the Iran-Israel conflict. In addition, as Fed officials claimed that there was no need to cut interest rates at present, expectations of interest rate cuts fell, the dollar strengthened, and gold was under pressure. In the short term, it may continue to fall and further test 3291 to 3285. Therefore, today we should continue to operate short, pay attention to 3336-38 to suppress shorts, defend 3346, and look at 3300/3285 support.
Gold short-term trading: short near 3336, stop loss 3346, take profit 3300
Buy gold, there may be a rebound in the short termAt present, gold has touched the area of 3325-3315 mentioned in my previous article, and the lowest price is around 3316. At present, due to the current important support area of 3310-3300 below, gold still has a rebound demand in the short term; although gold has not rebounded sharply at present, the downward momentum has indeed slowed down, and gold may rebound after the short force is consumed. Moreover, the ceasefire between Iran and Israel has not yet been settled. Moreover, the ceasefire between Iran and Israel has not yet been settled. With the fluctuating situation in the Middle East, bulls may have opportunities to counterattack.
However, the current performance of gold is indeed relatively weak, so there is no need to expect gold to rebound and fill the upper gap area of 3360-3370 in the short term; in trading, the rebound expectation can be appropriately lowered, and long positions can continue to be held and look up to the 3340-3350 area.
Gold Spot Price Analysis (4-Hour Chart4-hour candlestick chart for the Gold Spot price in U.S. Dollars (XAU/USD) from June 22 to July 9. The chart shows a downward trend with recent prices around $3,299.48, representing a 2.07% decrease. Technical indicators and annotations suggest potential support and resistance levels, with a highlighted area indicating a possible trading range. The data is sourced from OANDA.
XAU/USDPrice action trading is a methodology in financial markets where traders make decisions based on the actual price movements of an asset over time, rather than relying heavily on technical indicators or fundamental analysis. It involves observing and interpreting patterns and trends in price charts to predict future price movements.
XAUUSD Daily Outlook | June 23, 2025👋 Hello Gold traders!
We’re entering a new week with structure sharpening around key zones. Price is now hovering just below the decision shelf at 3385, and all eyes are on whether bulls defend structure — or bears trigger the first real trap. Let’s zoom in with pure Daily focus and zero noise.
🔸 DAILY STRUCTURE OUTLOOK
Gold remains in a clear bullish trend on the Daily timeframe, with the last confirmed Higher High at 3452. However, current price is in a retracement phase, testing the area just below the BOS and reacting to recent liquidity sweeps.
Despite rising USD pressure, the bullish structure remains intact unless a daily close breaks below 3315.
📌 Daily Bias: Bullish (retracement phase active)
🧭 Macro Context:
Heavy Fed week: Powell testifies Tue & Wed, Core PCE and Consumer Sentiment hit Fri.
USD may remain supported short-term, but gold still benefits from long-term inflation hedge + geopolitical risk flows.
🔹 STRUCTURAL KEY ZONES (D1)
Type Zone Confluences
🟢 Buy Zone #1 3320 – 3340 Daily OB, FVG base, EMA50 , structure HL defense
🔵 Buy Zone #2 3265 – 3285 Untapped OB + imbalance, deeper fib retrace
🟠 Flip Zone 3363 – 3385 Former BOS, FVG retest, minor liquidity shelf
🔴 Sell Zone #1 3405 – 3425 First sweep of equal highs, premium OB, FVG pocket
🔴 Sell Zone #2 3440 – 3460 Extreme bull trap: clean OB top, imbalance cluster
🎯 EXECUTION PLAN
🔍 Flip Zone is your battlefield — if bulls reclaim this zone cleanly, we may revisit 3405.
📉 3405–3425 offers the first sniper short opportunity: liquidity sweep + OB + FVG = prime short trigger.
📈 3320–3340 is the cleanest high-RR long zone — only enter if price reacts with strength and forms a rejection candle or bullish engulfing.
🧊 If 3320 fails, standby at 3265–3285 for a deeper correction entry backed by clean OB/FVG logic.
✅ SUMMARY & ACTION PLAN
Wait for confirmation at the Flip Zone — do not force direction.
Most precise sniper trades expected:
🔻 Sell from 3405–3425 → target Flip Zone
🔺 Buy from 3320–3340 → target 3385–3400
Only engage with clear OB reactions and strong PA confirmation — no bounce chasing.
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📌 Disclaimer: I'm part of Trade Nation's Influencer Program and receive compensation for using their charts on TradingView. This content is for educational purposes only.
— GoldFxMinds