XAU/XAG-IMPORTANT MOVEMENTS-WEEKLY.‼Dear friends, the direction of long-term analysis does not change much. (Weekly-Monthly Trends)
But the length of daily and 4-hour trends is very short.
That's why we need to constantly update our short-term analyzes.
Today we will continue our gold and silver analysis.
💸Macroeconomic Overview
FED's hard interest rate hikes, along with precious metals, caused a general decline in the commodity market. However, it is not possible for commodity prices to return to their normal prices very quickly, including oil. Therefore, I do not expect any relaxation in the FED's interest rate policy. In general, my expectation is that interest rates will lag behind inflation for a long time.
💥Weekly
On the weekly chart, we can better observe the reverse shoulder head pattern. The target of this pattern is around $102. However, the price received a strong downward reaction from the $93 resistance.
The purple ascending trendline is a support for the price.
XAUXAG trade ideas
XAU/XAG-IMPORTANT MOVEMENTS-DAILY‼Dear friends, the direction of long-term analysis does not change much. (Weekly-Monthly Trends)
But the length of daily and 4-hour trends is very short.
That's why we need to constantly update our short-term analyzes.
Today we will continue our gold and silver analysis.
💸Macroeconomic Overview
FED's hard interest rate hikes, along with precious metals, caused a general decline in the commodity market. However, it is not possible for commodity prices to return to their normal prices very quickly, including oil. Therefore, I do not expect any relaxation in the FED's interest rate policy. In general, my expectation is that interest rates will lag behind inflation for a long time.
💥Daily
When we examine the price chart on a daily basis, the 86.100 level is in the support position. The price fell hard from the 93 resistance and broke the yellow trend line downwards. After the price rises a little, it may want to withdraw to the purple trend support.
💹XAU/XAG WEEKLY TERMExamining the weekly chart, the price has been trading in an upside-down head-to-shoulder or a pinched sideways movement between the $85-60 levels.
Then it broke through this compression zone and started to rise.
There may be small reaction decreases, My guess the price will reach its target in 3-4 months.
💹XAU/XAG MONTHLY TERMWe are seeing a super cycle rise that starts at $30 in 2011 and continues to $125 in 2020.
The rise between 2011 and 2020 is a 5-wave rise.
After the completion of Wave 5, we had a sharp drop to the $63 levels, which was the corrective wave A of the 5 Wave drop.
My guess is that the price is currently moving within correction wave B.
I expect this corrective wave to last until the 0.618 maximum and 0.5 fibo level.
Sharp riseIn the next few weeks, the gold silver ratio will start to rush to the top. It should be super fierce. I won't do much silver. Gold and silver are up 21.5% over 4-5 weeks, which is very fierce. If you go down directly, it is not in line with human psychology and emotion. Until I wanted to do more. The gold to silver ratio will fall. Note that gold and silver will fall sharply in the next two months.
ShortNext week, the gold and silver ratio is expected to fall, and it is the last period of the first wave of decline. Next, it needs to rebound about 0.618. The lowest point may be on Friday. On that day, the moon phase also changed, which is easy to correct. Gold fell sharply last week, but silver almost didn't fall in the end, indicating that silver wants to rise very much. Finally, silver will reach the top around 33-35.
Gold and silver plummeted if they broke the red lineXauxag next, the key position is at the red line. If it can break through, it will rise explosively. If not, it will reach the peak in the medium term. Rising is almost certain to rise, but space is crucial. Breaking through the red line and not breaking through determine the fate of gold and silver.
LongThe gold silver ratio has just reached the position I analyzed before. I believe the correction has ended. Let's look forward to the next substantial rise. This promotion is the end of the first round, and there will be a second round in the future. Silver's future is worrying. It is expected that gold will reach the bottom one step ahead of silver. This time, the gold silver ratio will rise, which may make gold reach the bottom first. Like $1620.
ShortWhy did gold fall and silver not fall now? Because the gold silver ratio is currently in a daily correction, note that it is not a reversal. The probability of this cloud band cannot be broken. RSI expects to complete the correction of MACD deviation between 45 and 50. About 73.428. Then continue to rise near test 89, which is just the P point of the weekly pivot point, so the probability will be blocked, and then start a big correction. You ask me why I know that? Because the current 10-year US debt is the leading indicator of the gold silver ratio, which is very corresponding.
Of course, in addition to the technical correspondence and unreliable correspondence between the U.S. bond yield and the gold silver ratio, the underlying fundamental correspondence is the deep logical relationship between them. U.S. debt yield is a real-time economic response, which is more advanced or synchronized with the industrial prospect. It keeps pace in the time of crisis. When it comes out of the crisis, industrial investment is more cautious than the real-time economy.