XBRUSD trade ideas
Brent $70-80 rangeI see Brent heading to the $70-80 range in November and December. I believe this will be driven by economic worries. I believe either the Ukraine and Gaza wars will de-escalate. I see cost of living like mortgages putting downward price pressure on house prices which will drag the stock market down. I also see Gold being priced too high because the norm is 15 and it is currently 22. I see Iran ramping up oil production to supply china and i see US shale oil ramping up to fill the SPR
Oil within respected zoneViewing below on my chart analyst, you can see we are within a important price range for oil to make a high lower to continue this bullish trend back to highs.
If price fails we will continue to sell to make a lower low
UK Brent Oil 4H : Got a positive momentumUK Brent Oil
New forecast
The price of Brent crude futures continued to rise to confirm the breach of the 86.68 level and stabilize above it, heading towards visiting the 88.38 level as the next main target.
Therefore, we expect to witness further rise during the coming sessions, and breaching 88.40 will facilitate the price’s task to reach 89.55, while breaking 86.68 will stop the positive scenario and put pressure on the price to return to the bearish corrective path again.
The expected trading range for today is between support 85.14 and resistance 869.55 .
Be careful because of the war between Palestine and Israel, we may witness unexpected movements .
support line : 86.68 , 85.14
resistance line : 88.38 , 89.55
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective and If this post was useful to you , don't forget to subscribe and like ❤️
BRENT OIL (Support zone)BRENT OIL
The price of Brent reached the support line and now reversed, so it tries to stabilize at the bullish zone while trading above 84.76 to get 88.24
But stabilizing under 84.76 will support falling to get 83.53 and under it will get 80.92
Pivot Pivot: 84.76
Resistance Price: 86.89 & 98.24
support price: 83.53 & 80.92
Brent oil will move between 84.75 and 88.24
What Are Market Cycles And How Can You Use Them?Market cycles are a cornerstone of financial trading, shaping the opportunities and risks faced by traders across various markets. This article delves into the key phases of market cycles, how they manifest in different trading arenas, and how traders can capitalise on these predictable patterns for trading success.
The Four Phases of Market Cycles
Market cycles typically consist of four main phases: Accumulation, Markup, Distribution, and Markdown. Understanding these phases is integral for traders looking to maximise gains and minimise losses across all kinds of markets.
Accumulation
This is the first phase where savvy investors start buying, often when the market is flat or bearish. Prices are at a low, and there's little interest from the general public. Trading volumes may be lower during this period, making it an opportune time for informed traders to accumulate assets.
Markup
Following accumulation, prices start to rise. This phase is marked by growing investor confidence and increased media attention. It's during the markup phase that the majority of traders enter the market, lured by signs of a bull market. Technical indicators such as moving averages and RSI often show upward trends. In the market cycles chart above, we can see the crossover between a 21-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) lining, pointing to bullishness as the markup begins.
Distribution
After the markup phase peaks, we enter distribution. In this stage, those who accumulated assets early begin to sell, taking their profits off the table. This phase often has periods of sideways price movement and can be difficult to distinguish from a continued markup phase. However, trading volumes usually increase as both buying and selling activity rise.
Markdown
Finally, there's the markdown phase. In this stage, prices drop, often rapidly. General investors, late to exit, incur losses. This decline continues until assets are considered undervalued, setting the stage for another accumulation phase.
Market Cycles Across Different Markets
Understanding market cycles isn't limited to one type of market. Let's delve into how market cycles manifest in different arenas like stock, forex, commodity, and cryptocurrency* markets.
Stock Market Cycles
The stock market perhaps shows the clearest cycles, mainly due to its long history and extensive data for analysis. Stock market cycles often correlate with economic conditions, and they can span months to several years. Accumulation phases often occur during recessions, followed by markup phases during economic expansion. Distribution and markdown stages might coincide with economic slowdowns or contractions.
Forex Market Cycles
Currencies trade in pairs in the forex market, making their cycles somewhat different. Currency pairs are influenced by global economic indicators and events, from GDP growth to interest rate changes. Cycles here are often shorter, sometimes only lasting a few weeks or months, making rapid strategy adjustments crucial.
Commodity Cycles
Commodities like gold, oil, and agricultural products have their own cycles, often tied to supply and demand fundamentals. For instance, oil prices may rise during geopolitical tensions (markup) and fall when new supply routes open (markdown).
Crypto* Market Cycles
The crypto* market is relatively new but has exhibited distinct cycles, mainly due to its 24/7 trading environment and high volatility. Accumulation often occurs after a significant price drop when the general sentiment is negative. Markup phases can be exceedingly rapid, sometimes only lasting weeks or even days, followed by equally swift distribution and markdown phases.
Driving Forces Behind Market Cycles
Market cycles are influenced by a combination of economic and psychological factors that shape the behaviour of traders and investors. Identifying these driving forces can provide valuable insights for market participants.
Economic Factors
Fundamental economic indicators such as GDP growth, interest rates, and inflation often serve as catalysts for market cycles. For example, low interest rates might kickstart an accumulation phase as borrowing costs are low, and investment opportunities look more appealing. Similarly, a hike in interest rates may signal a distribution or markdown phase as investors seek to exit riskier assets.
Psychological Factors
Market sentiment plays a crucial role in the cyclical behaviour of financial markets. Ideas like the stock market’s 7-year cycles, although not empirically proven, can influence investor psychology. This concept suggests that financial crises occur roughly every seven years, contributing to a sense of impending doom as a cycle reaches this time frame. Such psychological factors can sometimes be self-fulfilling prophecies, leading traders to make decisions based on perception rather than underlying economic conditions.
How Traders Use Market Cycles to Their Advantage
Traders leverage their understanding of market cycles to formulate strategies that capitalise on each phase's unique characteristics. Here are some ways traders use market cycles to their advantage:
Long Positions in Accumulation Phase
During the accumulation phase, informed traders often take long positions, buying undervalued assets in anticipation of a markup phase. They look for signs of a potential upturn, like increasing trading volume or bullish divergence in technical indicators such as RSI or MACD. Platforms like FXOpen’s native TickTrader offer such technical tools for recognising and capitalising on market cycles.
Riding the Markup Wave
Once in the markup phase, traders may employ trend-following strategies like moving average crossovers to seize the momentum.
Short Selling in the Distribution Phase
Recognising the onset of the distribution phase is key to taking countermeasures. Traders might employ short selling to profit from declining prices. Technical indicators, such as a moving average crossover from bullish to bearish, could serve as signals for initiating short positions.
Hedging in Markdown Phase
During the markdown phase, traders often consider trend trading strategies and look for effective entry points in downtrends.
The Bottom Line
Understanding market cycles is a fundamental skill for traders, providing valuable insights into when to buy or sell various assets. Whether you're navigating the stock market or dabbling in forex, a well-rounded grasp of these cycles can greatly enhance your trading strategy. To put these insights into action, consider opening an FXOpen account to access each of the markets discussed here.
*At FXOpen UK and FXOpen AU, Cryptocurrency CFDs are only available for trading by those clients categorised as Professional clients under FCA Rules and Professional clients under ASIC Rules, respectively. They are not available for trading by Retail clients.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
UK Brent Oil 4H :Support further decline UK BRENT OIL
New forecast
The price of Brent crude futures traded with strong negativity yesterday, succeeding stably without support at 86.93. We note that the price broke this level and closed the daily candle below it, heading towards achieving a further decline, with its next target reaching 85.14 level, by breaching this level will open the door against our targets at first will reach to 84.50 level ,it will extend to 83.80 .
Therefore, the downward trend scenario will remain valid during the coming period, supported by the negative pressure formed by the moving average 50, taking into account that stabilized above 86.93 will lead the price to begin recovery attempts and achieve gains and postponed the bearish waves.
The expected trading range for today is between support 83.80 and resistance 86.93 .
Be careful because of the war between Palestine and Israel, we may witness unexpected movements .
support line : 85.14 ,83.50
resistance line : 86.93 , 88.36
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective and If this post was useful to you , don't forget to subscribe and like ❤️
How to Trade Crude OilLearning how to trade crude oil requires a nuanced understanding of its fundamental aspects, instruments, and trading strategies. This comprehensive article offers insights into the critical elements that affect crude oil prices, the range of instruments available for trading, and specific strategies traders use in this market.
The Basics of Crude Oil
Crude oil, often referred to as "black gold," is a fossil fuel derived from the remains of ancient organic matter. It serves as a crucial raw material for various industries, including transportation, chemicals, and manufacturing.
Two primary types of crude oil traded on global markets are West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent Crude. WTI is primarily sourced from the United States and is known for its high quality and low sulphur content. On the other hand, Brent Crude originates mainly from the North Sea and serves as an international pricing benchmark.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which includes members like Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Venezuela, plays a pivotal role in determining global oil supply. By adjusting production levels, OPEC influences crude oil prices significantly. Additionally, other regions like Russia and the United States contribute to the world's oil supply, further affecting market dynamics.
Factors Affecting Crude Oil Prices
In oil trading, economics is a fundamental aspect that traders need to grasp to make educated decisions. Several factors drive the price of crude oil, and here are some of the most significant:
Supply and Demand: At its core, the price of crude oil is determined by how much of it is available (supply) versus how much is wanted (demand). An oversupply can depress prices, while high demand can cause prices to spike.
Geopolitical Events: Conflicts, wars, and diplomatic tensions in oil-producing regions can disrupt supply chains, affecting prices. For instance, sanctions on Iran or instability in Venezuela can push prices higher.
Currency Fluctuations: Oil prices are generally quoted in US dollars. A strong dollar can make oil more expensive for countries using other currencies, thereby affecting demand.
Seasonal Changes: During winter, demand for heating oil can rise, pushing crude oil prices up. Conversely, a mild winter might result in lower demand and prices.
Technological Advances: Innovations in extraction methods, such as fracking, can alter the supply landscape, making it easier to extract oil and thereby affecting prices.
OPEC Decisions: As previously mentioned, OPEC has a significant influence on oil prices. Their production quotas can tighten or flood the market, causing price swings.
Economic Indicators: Data like unemployment rates, manufacturing output, and interest rates can indicate the health of an economy, which in turn can affect oil consumption and prices.
How Is Crude Oil Traded?
When learning how to trade crude oil, traders have a variety of instruments to choose from. However, it’s also important to be aware of its trading hours and how leverage is used.
Crude Oil Instruments
Futures Contracts: A futures contract is an agreement to buy or sell a specific quantity of crude oil at a predetermined price on a specified future date. Both WTI and Brent Crude have their own futures contracts traded on exchanges like the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX).
Contracts for Difference (CFDs): This financial derivative allows traders to speculate on oil price movements without owning the actual commodity. Essentially, you're entering into a contract with a broker to exchange the difference between the opening and closing prices of the crude oil position.
Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs): These are investment funds traded on stock exchanges. ETFs such as the United States Oil Fund (USO) or the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas ETF (XOP) provide exposure to oil prices by either tracking the commodity's price or investing in oil-related equities.
Options: These financial instruments give traders the right but not the obligation to buy or sell crude oil at a fixed price before a certain date. They offer more flexibility but are generally considered riskier due to their complex nature.
Spot Market: In the spot market, physical crude oil is bought and sold for immediate delivery. However, this is less common for retail traders due to the logistical challenges involved.
At FXOpen, we offer both WTI and Brent Crude CFDs. To get started with oil trading, software such as our free TickTrader platform can provide the technical analysis tools necessary to analyse crude markets.
Trading Hours
Crude oil markets are open almost around the clock, offering high liquidity and the potential for trading opportunities at various times. The New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), for example, is open for trading from Sunday evening until Friday afternoon, with a daily trading break. The most active trading hours are generally during the US (9:00 AM to 2:30 PM EST) and European sessions (6:00 AM to 11:00 AM EST).
Leverage
Leverage allows traders to use small amounts of capital to control a larger position. While this can amplify profits, it also increases risk. Most retail traders opt for trading crude oil through CFDs, which often come with higher leverage options, making it essential to manage risk carefully.
Crude Oil Trading Strategies
Given the volatile nature of crude oil prices, traders employ specific strategies to capitalise on price fluctuations. Here are some strategies particularly useful for crude oil trading:
Trend Following with Moving Averages
The trend is your friend, especially in commodities like crude oil. One effective way to follow the trend is by using moving averages, such as the 50-day (blue) and 200-day (orange). When the 50-day crosses above the 200-day, it's generally a bullish signal, and vice versa for a bearish trend. However, as with all technical analysis tools, moving averages can sometimes trigger false signals.
Range Trading
Due to supply-demand dynamics and geopolitical factors, crude oil prices often fluctuate within a specific range. Identifying these ranges can be useful for short-term trading. Traders buy at the lower end of the range and sell at the higher end, applying technical indicators like RSI or Stochastic Oscillator for entry and exit signals.
News-Based Trading
In crude oil markets, news about OPEC decisions, US oil inventory data, geopolitical tensions, and technological advancements can dramatically impact prices. Traders keeping an eye on oil news can take advantage of sudden announcements or an economic release likely to push prices in a particular direction. Given the high leverage commonly available in CFD trading, this strategy can be profitable but also comes with significant risk.
The Bottom Line
In crude oil trading, having the right strategies and tools is essential for success. By understanding the fundamentals, market dynamics, and utilising specific trading techniques, you are now equipped with the knowledge you need to get started. To access these markets with competitive spreads and rapid execution speeds, consider opening an FXOpen account and step confidently into the world of crude oil trading.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
UK Brent Oil 4H :New forecast UK BRENT OIL
New forecast
The price of Brent crude futures suffered strong losses yesterday, as it approached the expected correction level at 86.93, awaiting for the price to be stimulated to resume the upward trend.
Therefore now the price forced us to wait for to select the coming tendency ,where stabilized above 86.93 will be resuming the bullish waves again to reach 88.38 , on the other hand stability under 86.93 will putting the price under sell pressure to continue at the negative correction to reach 85.32 and then will rise up .
The expected trading range for today is between support 85.32 and resistance 88.36 .
Be careful because of the war between Palestine and Israel, we may witness unexpected movements .
support line : 85.32 84.49
resistance line : 86.93 , 88.36
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective and If this post was useful to you , don't forget to subscribe and like ❤️
Brent (ICE) (F4) Intraday May fall -2.12 %Pivot: 87.40
Our preference:
short positions below 87.40 with targets at 85.95 & 85.00 in extension.
Alternative scenario:
above 87.40 look for further upside with 88.00 & 88.75 as targets.
Comment:
even though a continuation of the technical rebound cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.
TradePlus-Fx|BRENT: intraday idea💬 Description: Today, the instrument is at the level of 87.45 and is most likely to prepare for a fall in the more medium term. But here it is necessary to take into account the geopolitical background, which greatly influences oil. Today, an idea is proposed, the time frames of which are within the day. Namely, long for the purpose of local updating of the maximum. The approximate target is the level of 90 . After which, as was said, the price will most likely rush down again, if there are no sharp geopolitical surges on the world stage.
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UK Brent Oil 4H :Retest and then rise upUK BRENT OIL
New forecast
The price perfectly fulfills my last idea and reached to our first target +285 pip .
The price of Brent crude oil contracts has made new attempts to penetrate the 89.55 level and is finding it difficult to exceed it, waiting for a strong positive incentive that will contribute to pushing the price to exceed this level and confirm the opening of the way for a rush towards our new positive targets that start at 91.00 and extend to 92.52.
Therefore, the emerging scenario will remain valid and effective due to the poor situation between Israel and Palestine. keeping in mind stability above 89.55 represents a preliminary condition for the continuation of the expected rise, as trading under that area it will put pressure on the price to decline again to the previously broken level 86.93 so now it is possible to do a negative correction and then we will see bullish waves .
The expected trading range for today is between support 86.93 and resistance 89.55 .
Be careful because of the war between Palestine and Israel, we may witness unexpected movements .
support line : 86.93 , 85.32
resistance line : 88.38 , 89.55
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective and If this post was useful to you , don't forget to subscribe and like ❤️
Price of Oil in Tense Anticipation Monday's opening came without any surprises. Despite the news that the Israeli army is moving to a new phase of the operation in Gaza, the price of Brent oil did not change much, trading started around the middle of the Friday candle.
The chart shows that the price of Brent oil has fluctuated between USD 86.60 and USD 89.10 since October 24th. At the same time, the MACD indicator shrank near the zero line, which is typical for flat markets. However, it can hardly be said that bidders are calm.
On the one hand, they are closely monitoring news from the Middle East, where escalation could provoke supply disruptions and sharply increase the price of oil. On Sunday, US national security adviser Jake Sullivan said the US sees an increased risk of the conflict spreading to other parts of the Middle East region.
On the other hand, the Federal Reserve is expected to make a decision on interest rates this week. The event is scheduled for Wednesday evening, and it can greatly change the current balance of supply and demand.
The basis of the plan for the week can be the expectation of an impulse with the price leaving the specified range (similar to the inside bar strategy), which can develop into a new significant trend.
In this case, if the price goes out of the range:
→ in the upward direction will mean an attack by the bulls on the psychological level of USD 90;
→ in a downward direction will mean an attempt to break through an important ascending channel (shown in blue);
→ since the level of emotional stress is high, it can be assumed that the market is especially vulnerable to false movements.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Brent OIL in USD until April 2024 + some projections into 2025 Weekly timeframe suggests that BRENT is in its second half accumulation area, which will last until April 2024. Inside the accumulation area OIL will in the range of USD 79-96, bottoming in the mid of December 2023 and topping in the end of February 2024. The last bottom of accumulation phase will happen in the mid of April at the level of around USD 90, but no lower than USD 87.
End of April will mark a major breakout from the accumulation phase starting a new sequence of higher highs, the first is expected around the level of USD 98. Followed by a quick retest of USD 93-96 range ending in the beginning of July 2024.
The long awaited OIL bullrun is likely to start in July 2024 and last until mid September 2025 reaching USD 213 level.
UK Brent Oil 4H :under 88.38 will be bearish UK OIL
New forecast
The price of Brent crude futures approached our expected negative target at 85.32 and rebounded sharply to penetrate the 88.38 level and stabilize around it, which prompts the price to try to stop the downward correction that is dominating recent trading.
Therefore, we expect to witness further decline during the coming sessions, but on the condition that the price continues below 88.38 to reach 86.93 again, and by breaking it, it will reach 85.32, taking into account that consolidation above 89.55 will put pressure on the price to continue positive trading and head to visit the 91.00 areas in a way Main.
The expected trading range for today is between support 85.32 and resistance 89.55 .
Be careful because of the war between Palestine and Israel, we may witness unexpected movements .
support line : 86.93 , 85.32
resistance line : 88.38 , 89.55
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective and If this post was useful to you , don't forget to subscribe and like ❤️
Oil Turns BullishHere Is My Analyst On Oil. I believe we are due to make higher highs next week. Looking at the 4hr & Daily shows bullish imo.
UKOIL Short Oil has been bearish off late.
but daily has shifted to down bias a couple of days ago.
today being an inside value day with 1/2 volume is not the best of the setups but it's the only one to look for today.
Grade C risk will be allocated if oil breaks below ARL and gives entry on 5M.
oilthe 3 red small circles that are depicted are situated in the 3 red cloud area
and price has touched all the 3 areas
it seems that it acts as magnet for the price
for simplification purpose I have tracked the price with lines
so the price has the potential to touch dollar 51
Oil Brent - H4\D1Oil Brent
The nearest target is at 96.00 in continuation of the 5th wave on D1
H4 - there was a fixation behind the correctional channel and a 3-wave structure may form, which may indicate continued movement up the trend.
What to expect now?
Expectation of breaking through the level - 89.25, locally the target is 91.40 - 94.88
When opening a position, it is best to exit the position from the level of 86.47 - 85.66, if this scenario does not materialize.
Long
Targets 89.98 - 91.40 - 92.75 - 94.88 - 96.00
Strifor || UKOIL-10/25/2023Preferred direction: SELL
Comment: For oil, the previous trading idea also worked out perfectly and the instrument is now trading at the level of 86.62. Despite the general tense geopolitical background, the instrument is still considered for sell, and the purpose of the sale is gap closing. Presumably, this goal will be achieved within one trading week.
Thank you for like and share your views!
UK Brent Oil 4H : wait for confirmation and then sell itUK BRENT OIL
New forecast
The price perfectly fulfills my last idea and price reached to our second target +230 pip .
The price of Brent crude oil futures is trading negatively now, putting pressure on the 88.38 level, reinforcing expectations of a continuation of the downward trend for the rest of the day, paving the way for heading towards our negative targets, which begin with a break and stability below the 88.38 level to reach 86.93 and extend to 85.32.
The 50 moving average supports the expected downward trend, which will remain in place provided that a break of the 88.38 level is confirmed and consolidation below it.
The expected trading range for today is between support 86.93 and resistance 91.00 .
Be careful because of the war between Palestine and Israel, we may witness unexpected movements .
support line : 88.38 , 86.93
resistance line : 89.55 , 91.00
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective and If this post was useful to you , don't forget to subscribe and like ❤️
Brent (ICE) (Z3) Intraday May fall -2.01 % the downside prevailPivot: 90.60
Our preference:
short positions below 90.60 with targets at 87.00 & 86.25 in extension.
Alternative scenario:
above 90.60 look for further upside with 91.10 & 91.80 as targets.
Comment:
the RSI is below its neutrality area at 50%
