Brent Oil Analysisbe ready for getting a great short .
because of this heavy resistance .
make sure than you are ok with position risks and risk management.
XBRUSD trade ideas
Brent crude bullish pullbackIf the support on the 200-day MA and 50-day MA levels of $81 and $80 holds its ground, I expect brent crude to test the 38.2% Fibo retracement level of $93.50 pb.
Brent 78$ then 105$In my view Brent is forming a reverse H&S pattern right shoulder that could reverse @ 77-78$ area (less likely 74$ area) , my final tp is around 105$ in december
BRENT CRUDE OILBULLISH (with caution)
DOJI Candle formed on Weekly timefrme
Price seems to be showing signs of exhaustion
would consider a SHORT on a close and hold below
4H BOS and ascending trindline.
UPSIDE
A break and hold above 4H BOS and the 88.00
level could target the 92.00 level
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Brent uptrend exhaustionContext:
Weekly – uptrend (UT), one-time-framing up
Daily – uptrend
Microstructure:
Poor highs, poor lows
Last day:
value moved down
Special notes:
There are multiple signs of UT exhaustions: shortening of daily trend upthrust, daily volume dries up, last week value area overlaps with previous week
Moreover, price is close to monthly resistance cloud. Without some stong bullish news it will be hard to get through it.
Conclusion:
A swing trader that is still LONG should strongly consider reducing position. At this point it is still too early to flip but risks of staying LONG outweigh potential upside.
For a day trader there is still an opportunity to play LONG as daily low high (LH) is still not set. The best risk-reward opportunity for LONG can be found near last week low
Strifor || UKOIL-08/15/2023Preferred direction: SELL
Comment: Oil quotes are at fairly significant daily values. Sale transactions are relevant, and we are just looking for them, however, it is most likely not worth delaying the sale, since a more global picture is most likely in favor of the buyer. Targets for the current short trade are considered at the level of 83.42, not lower.
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Small stop, why don't I give it a try?We can see how the price after an impulsive uptrend corrected to the 0.5 Fibonacci level. At this level we see the interest of a big player and price manipulation. Equal lows were formed. After taking liquidity off these lows we can look at opening a long position to fill the price imbalance. There I will be closing part of the position and waiting for higher targets. Subscribe to the idea so you don't miss updates.
Brent Oil to $86-$88After a 2 month consolidation and accumulation
phase (04may-11Jul) and also after breaking various
bearish trendlines since the Mar 2022 top Brent Oil
has broken upwards to $81.49 this week.
I believe Brent Oil will retest the support area around
$77-78 over the next week or 2.
I'll be looking for entries in the $78 price area
for a long to $86-88 region.
Stay tuned for updates to this chart over the coming weeks!
DeGRAM | UKOIL continuation of trendUKOIL reached resistance, and it's pulling back from it. It is potentially printing the AB=CD pattern where the D point completes right at the fibo cluster level.
The market is trading in the ascending channel, indicating the bears are running out of steam and the bulls are in control.
We anticipate the continuation of this current trend from the psychological level at 85.00 and the fibo cluster.
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BRENT CRUDE OIL: Chart to watch for inflation progressBrent is up 20% since the last 6 weeks (from 28.06.23) ever since OPEC+ extended production cuts to 2024 recently. www.theguardian.com
Would this lead to an upward pressure on the coming months?
Brent - technical profile.Brent oil is testing support at 86.32. I think the price will pass it and go further - perhaps to the level of 83.30.
Brent Crude OilBrent crude oil had quite the month in July, climbing from $74 per barrel all the way up to $85. This price jump came from Russia cutting back on exports to Saudi Arabia, trimming all their oil production. Still, I don't think the price is going to burst out of its range of $72 - $88 per barrel yet.
What's interesting is the strengthening of "crack spreads"
Now you may be wondering what "crack spread" is. It's basically the difference between the buying cost of crude oil and the selling price of the final products, such as gasoline and diesel. There has been a significant increase in the crack spread for RBOB gasoline due to a production mismatch with the total demand and exports.
Although there was a decrease in demand in July, the low inventories of gasoline at a five-year low and diesel at a multi-decade rock-bottom level have helped maintain prices for refined products. Add to this mix a hike in jet fuel demand, mostly driven by China's international travel sector.
There's more. Due to the hot summer heat reducing shipping capacity along the Rhine River, European refineries might need to cut back production. This could prompt the U.S. to ramp up the export of key industrial fuels.
The Rhine River in Europe, vital for transporting fuel & goods, is running into some trouble. Water levels in a part of the river (Kaub chokepoint) are the lowest they've been in 30 years. That's not good because if the water's too low, the big boats (barges) can't get through.
Low water levels halted the barges last summer & may happen again without adequate rainfall. This impacts the delivery of critical goods (heating oil fuel)
Barges moving heating oil fuel from Rotterdam saw their cargo loads nearly cut in half from 2000 to 1200 tons within a week. Less water and harder access mean using barges is getting more expensive.
So a river that's too dry for boats to pass through properly could cause many problems with getting goods around Europe & might even make things more expensive. The inflation battle isn't over in Europe.
Now for those keeping an eye on inflation. As gasoline prices rise in tandem with crude oil, it inevitably drives up the price of pretty much everything. Diesel demand reflects the overall economy's well-being but has fluctuated throughout this year.
If there continues to be poor economic data from the US, China, and the EU, we could very well be starring down the barrel of a recession (pun intended ).
This is why limit the current price ceiling to the high $80s for crude oil.
The strength of crude has reached the upper limit of our forecast range and is still within the range of $72 to $87.
If it breaches $88, it may reach $95 and have a greater impact on refined products. However, concerns about a recession will likely keep a limit on the price for now.
The long-term impact of refinery shutdowns over the past 3 years and the current state of inventories is worth noting. If a recession hits and refinery runs dip, rebuilding inventories will be a severe challenge unless demand drops off a cliff.
There's a catch-22; central banks are trying to cause that drop by hiking interest rates. The downside is that these higher rates can deter drilling and exploration for new oil and gas, further compounding the problem down the line.
This is a vicious cycle. Destroying your economy to tackle inflation is like cutting off your arm because a paper cut is not something I would recommend.
I expect Brent will trade between $72 and $88 per barrel until Q4. After that, don't be surprised if it creeps close to the $90 mark.
As outlined in my blog I published on August 5th 2023
The previous forecast came true.The previous forecast for Brent oil was justified - the support of 86.35 was confirmed and the quotes updated the maximum. Perhaps the price will again approach this mark in order to re-test.
BRENT OIL (OUTLOOK)BRENT OIL
to be bearish should stable under 87.69 then will reach 86.04
to confirm the bearish trend should break 85.17 and stabilize under kit to get 83.50
and stabilizing above 88.71 will be bullish to reach 91.43
pivot price: 87.69
resistance price: 88.71 & 90.00 & 91.43
support price: 86.04 & 85.17 & 83.50
Brent oil will move between 87.69 and 86.04
bcoiloil is bearish.
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ukoil shortukoil Ascending channel just got completed on the 4h timeframe so now we looking for sells long term
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Brent - technical profile.Brent oil updated the previous maximum. It has not gone far yet, and now further prospects are being determined. The support at 86.32 is likely to be tested in the near future. If it holds up, further growth will be possible.
The Price of Brent Oil Approaching the Highs of the YearThe price is driven up by:
→ the policy of limiting oil production by OPEC+ countries. For example, Saudi Arabia last week announced a cut in production by 1 million barrels per day until the end of September, adding that the decision could be extended. Russia is also reducing production volumes. We wrote about the scenario of increasing growth in the price of Brent oil due to production cuts in a post dated July 7;
→ hopes/rumors that the Chinese authorities will stimulate the economy, which is not recovering enough after the lifting of COVID-related restrictions.
Selling pressure is driven by:
→ raising rates by Western central banks to fight high inflation.
Under the influence of these and other factors, the price of Brent oil rose close to the highs of the year around USD 87 per barrel, forming an upward channel. At the same time, in August, the price bounced strongly from its lower border twice, indicating the strength of demand. On the other hand, the progress of the bulls in the formation of the August high is very small, if you compare this peak with the previous one, set on the 2nd of August — a sign of the exhaustion of the bullish momentum.
It is reasonable to assume that the market can find a balance at current levels, and the price will enter the consolidation range, as holders of long positions can take profits after the increase in the price of Brent oil by more than 14% since July 1. At the same time, false breakdowns of the high of the year are not ruled out.
Important levels:
→ USD 87.15 – resistance of the high of the year;
→ USD 86.45 – resistance from August high;
→ borders of the ascending channel.
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Oil, as expected, did not hold above 86.As I suggested yesterday, and suggested in earlier posts, oil failed to stay above $86. It seems that in order to break out of the existing corridor, some additional incentives will be required.
