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XBT trade ideas

Bitcoin Volatility Near Historic Lows, Large Move Coming SoonBitcoin has dropped to historically low levels of volatility. Typically this means a very large move in either direction is going to happen relatively soon. How soon exactly is not clear, maybe 1-4 weeks. This also doesn't indicate which direction the market will move, just that a breakout is likely coming soon. Take your pick on which direction it is going to go, or wait for a clear breakout. Personally, I am biased to the downside. What I'm seeing now are bearish momentum divergences, bearish time targets, bearish Elliott Wave counts, bearish price action indicators, bearish moving averages, very positive sentiment (which is bearish, in particular clear manias formed in memecoins and NFTs again), and fundamental bearishness (market makers leaving, regulatory risk increasing, crypto banks going under, on-ramps closing, and over-leveraged holders like MSTR, DCG, and some major miners still not forced out), there's also macroeconomic risk with global rates going higher and no sign of a Fed rate cut until at least late 2024. If this does clearly break to the upside I will be ready to flip long because we could see a move to around $40k in that case (bear market will probably resume after that). A break to the downside likely means we'll continue with my forecasted bear market ($10k in early 2024, $3-5K in 2025), and this will be a long-term top for the next ~2 years. Options Straddle An advanced trading strategy to take advantage of this particular situation is called an "Options Straddle." This is a non-directional bet which is essentially long volatility. Since volatility virtually always increases after reaching a low point, this strategy aims to profit from an increase in volatility regardless of the direction in which the market moves. To enter into an options straddle, you simultaneously buy a Call and Put option with the same expiration at the money. Example Buy Sept29th 29k Call for $1560 + Buy Sept29th 29k Put for $1060 Breakeven Price Calculation For Bull Scenario = Strike Price of the Call + Premium paid for the Call + Premium paid for the Put 29,000+1,560+1,060 = $31,620 Breakeven Price Calculation For Bearish Scenario = Strike Price of the Put − (Premium paid for the Call + Premium paid for the Put) 29,000 - (1,560 + 1,060) = $26,380 So as you can see, anything above $31,620 or below $26,380 at the expiration time of the option will result in a profit. To calculate profit at the time of expiration, for each BTC options contract every $1 above the upper breakeven would be $1 of profit, and every $1 below the lower breakeven would be $1 in profit. However, due to extrinsic value, the trade could be profitable at a lower or higher price (respectively) if it is sold before the expiration date. Also, you can decrease/increase the respective breakeven prices by buying options which are cheaper (ie. they have earlier expiration dates), but this increases the risk that the price may not change significantly before the expiration date, which would result in a loss. Calculating Loss The MAX loss for this trade would occur if BTC is at exactly 29k when the options expire, resulting in a loss of 1,560+1060 = $2,620. If the underlying price is above the strike but below the bullish break-even: Loss = Total Premium Paid − (Underlying Price − Strike Price) If the underlying price is below the strike but above the bearish break-even: Loss = Total Premium Paid − (Strike Price − Underlying Price)
BITMEX:BVOL7D
by Intuit
WARNING! The BIGGEST BTC CRASH is so real for BITCOIN! U ready?!This is on a weekly timeframe, no more 1h or 4h timeframes... This is the REAL DEAL. The low 29k zone is an area where lot of people get burned. Please be careful here with long positions my friends. While I think that there is some steam to go up from previously confirmed patterns, the huge XXXL Rising Wedge raises immense concerns... My opinion is that we will have one more leg up because the Falling Wedge #2 will confirm and this will create so much Euphoria but eventually massively dump, possibly even to new lows around the 13k area. Crypto will be declared DEAD before the real amazing BULL RUN begins. Be careful my amigos this may be so brutal like nothing you have ever witnessed in this space.
BITMEX:XBTShort
by BTCeer
1
Whipsaw pattern!A whipsaw chart pattern is a type of price action that occurs when a security's price moves sharply in one direction, then quickly reverses and moves in the opposite direction. This can be a frustrating pattern for traders, as it can lead to losses if they enter or exit a trade at the wrong time. Whipsaw patterns are most common in volatile markets, where prices can fluctuate wildly. They can also occur in trending markets, but they are less common in these cases. There are two main types of whipsaw patterns: Trend reversals: These patterns occur when a security's price is in a strong trend and then suddenly reverses direction. For example, a stock that has been trending up for several days may suddenly reverse and start trending down. Rangebound markets: These patterns occur when a security's price is trading within a narrow range and then suddenly breaks out of the range in either direction. For example, a stock that has been trading between $10 and $11 for several weeks may suddenly break out to $12 or $9. Whipsaw patterns can be difficult to trade, but there are a few things that traders can do to minimize their risk: Use stop-loss orders: Stop-loss orders are a type of order that automatically closes a trade if the price moves against the trader's position by a certain amount. This can help to limit losses if the trader is whipsawed. Trade with caution: Whipsaw patterns are unpredictable, so it is important to trade with caution when they occur. Traders should only enter trades that they are comfortable with and that they have a good risk-reward ratio. It is important to remember that no trading strategy is guaranteed to be successful. Whipsaw patterns can happen to anyone, even experienced traders. However, by following the tips above, traders can minimize their risk of being whipsawed.
BITMEX:XBTEducation
by Moshkelgosha
🔥 Bitcoin Volatility Lows: Massive Move GUARANTEED 🚨If you enjoy this analysis, please give it a like and a follow. I've made several analyses on Bitcoin's extremely low volatility over the last couple of weeks. In this analysis, I want to take a look at yet another metric that measures volatility: BVOL7D, on the daily chart. On the top chart, white, you find Bitcoin's historical volatility. On the bottom chart, orange, you find BTC's price on the log scale. Once BTC volatility reaches the yellow area, it indicates that volatility is extremely low. Historically, this has ALWAYS correctly predicted that a huge move was coming. Furthermore, 3 of the 4 previous moves were bullish. Keep in mind we can continue to trade sideways for some time. But, I can guarantee you that a big >20% move is coming in the next few weeks. The million dollar question will be whether we're going to pump or to dump. I've made multiple analyses on either potential direction recently, but my bias is to the bearish side. Happy to be proven wrong! Do you think we're going to see a big move soon? Which direction are you trading? Share your thoughts in the comments below 🙏
BITMEX:BVOL7D
by FieryTrading
22
INVERSE ADAM AND EVE + INVERSE BATMAN PATTERNS! BULLISH!Several bullish patterns! Slowly showing what patterns are in play here. Difficult to trade if you are new, but starting to make sense for someone who has been trading for several years. This will likely rip up as previously stated. That Batman pattern is not my imagination but an actual pattern traders use It is similar to a Head and Shoulders pattern except that in the Batman pattern, the Head structure is smaller and the shoulders (representing the ears) are larger :D
BITMEX:XBTLong
by BTCeer
$BTC -Range Bound *12hr- CRYPTOCAP:BTC continues trading within a Tight Range of 2K, dancing tango with range's bottom and ceiling, until it doesn't. 40.000$+ per #Bitcoin is not as far fetched from here, all Bitcoin gots to do is break current range to the upside before resuming higher. Besides that, the awaiting Feds Rate Hike decision will impact direction of CRYPTOCAP:BTC and other Financial Market sectors. Breaking down from the range, upcoming supports are EMA200 catching up to 12Hr(tf), Demand Zone during impulsive price action in 1Hr(tf) + a small support trendline. If all these zones fail to provide support assuming a range breakdown headed South, watch for S/R zone 24K-25K to catch a decent bounce, welcoming great probability outcome Longing on Derivatives . Remain Patient ! Until the next confirmation TRADE SAFE *** Note that this is not Financial Advice . Please do your own research and consult your own Financial Advisor before partaking on any trading activity based solely on this Idea
BITMEX:XBT
by Mr_J__fx
BITCOIN in July: Can we finally FLY (!!?!!) 🚀✨✨✨✨Wishes for a nice week and here we go with our new tradition: Our Monthly Chart and Prognosis. Starting in May with March Madness 2023. Destination Houston 🚀✨ (Link: ) and indeed March was pure Madness with a big dip and a much higher PUMP! April's COOL 🌷🌞(31k or more) was also a nice success as the price did go exactly where we said it would: the 31k! Link: 'Buy the dip in May and Chart a thriving Trade'.. indeed it was the month that we saw a dip and we bought it. Success! Link: BITCOIN in June? How about a Moon BOOM 🚀✨✨✨✨ Again, the title was good as the price did fly from below 26k back to 31k Link: www.tradingview.com Here we are at July and BTC keeps attempting to break over 31k. Will it succeed? Most likely yes and we see 35200 as the next resistance. Can it fail and go lower? It can but not the most likely scenario. In case 30200 is lost then the price can dip lower to 26k$ (less than 25% likelihood). I am Long over here, that does not change. One Love, The FXPROFESSOR 👩‍💼📚
BITMEX:XBTLong
by FX_Professor
3
Hold the line! What to know about this BTC breakoutBitcoin with a strong breakout. We would want to see the key fib areas here generate some kind of bullish market action. - morning star - bullish hammer - SFP of a local fractal low Breakdown here and a lower low from the start of this market structure break could put the breaks on this move and at least result in more consolidation before then either breaking down or breaking up. Targets for a bullish move would be -0.272 and -0.618. Letsss gooo!
BITMEX:XBT
by PHundal
how will Bitcoin unfold in the future?This wave of market should be said to be a very typical war example. It took the bulls 2 months to create a bear trap, and finally the Jedi counterattacked, crushing the bears' defense in one fell swoop. Some say it was a collusion between the SEC and Wall Street, and some even say Gary made a lot of money shorting Bitcoin. But these may not be confirmed, but from the technical trend review, we can still find a basis. The correction that began in April has been a sudden setback, with one wave of lows being lower than the next. It looks as if the bulls are losing out. But the system's new features played a huge role this time. In order to cheat the line, the bulls caused MA144 to lose and the bottom neck line of the head and shoulders was worn through the illusion. But we can clearly see with the chart pattern hint function that this is a standard descending wedge trend, and finally stops falling at the wedge support line. We all know that in some key support technologies, there is a false breakthrough standard of the deceptive line, generally no more than 3%. So this time, the main force of the bulls is familiar with it, and the dark position of the plank road is Chen Cang, and finally the goal of killing the bears is achieved. A 20% increase in a week, although not much compared to a bull market, is still a good morale boost after a 2-month downturn. After all, global financial markets have rebounded recently, India, Japan have even come out of the big bull market, and even the Nasdaq has soared under the leadership of NVIDIA. The cryptocurrency circle has been plagued by the SEC suing Binance and Coinbase incidents, altcoin bulls fell apart, and the market wailed. And the current long white candlestick at least keeps everyone hopeful. But the market is not a welfare home, and trading is never charity. So we can't judge the market trend with emotion. At the beginning of this rally, I made a judgment on the nature of the rebound, from the peak of $70,000, the market entered a bear market, theoretically, will use the ABC trend to complete the bear market correction (red line in the figure). This can be found in 2018-2019. Although history is not simply repeated, in a market that lacks fundamental support, chart movements are the basis for most investors' reference. The adjustment of the 12-month history of 2021-2022 should be wave A, and then the rebound that opened is theoretically wave B, which should currently run in the third stage of wave B. I thought this rebound was also the trend of ABC (gold line in the chart), and I thought that the high of the rally should not exceed $42200, where the golden section is 0.5. Of course, there are other technical indicators out there that form a suppression. At present, from November last year to April this year, there is a clear 5 waves rising (purple line in the figure), followed by a 2-month correction, also 5 waves (blue line in the figure), I remember Elliott's wave theory for the definition of the rebound ABC trend, there is one, that is, if A is a complex wave, C may be a simple wave. So I judge that the trend of this C may be the ABC structure (123 of the dashed line standard in the figure). Then there was a big C wave of decline. This judgment is based on the following logic 1. Fundamentals, the SEC's lawsuit against Binance is actually an extension of the previous FTX incident, and the central issue is security. Whether altcoins are tokens or securities is also a question they need to solve. These questions are always the sword of Damox hanging over the head of the coin. When we look at the end of the first two bear markets, they are also inextricably linked to fundamentals. 2015 was the beginning of the booming blockchain boom in China, with the emergence of blockchain companies, the issuance of coins, and the listing of exchanges became the norm, and Chinese exchanges monopolized more than 70% of the world's trading volume. It wasn't until 2018 that China began to drive away digital exchanges and the Bitcoin bull market ended. In 2019, it was the issuance of US Bitcoin ETF contracts, and mainstream institutions entered the currency circle, taking over Chinese capital and becoming new Bitcoin players. And in March 2022, the Fed entered a rate hike cycle that became the end of a bull market, and Bitcoin once again entered a bear market cycle. So in the next bull market, there should be a fundamental change, either the SEC will give a compromise plan for the legalization of the currency circle, or new capital will enter. In conclusion, it is difficult to judge the end of a bear market without these changes. 2. Technical, compared with the three bull and bear markets after 2011, although the time of each adjustment is about 12 months, the first two declines were 87% and 84%, and this time it was only 77%, which is slightly insufficient. The bear market in 2019 uses the ABC trend, although the latter wave of C has not reached a new low, but the amplitude is still large. Based on the above analysis, I believe that it should be in the late stage of the big B wave rebound, if it cannot break through the golden section of $42,200 at 0.5, it is not ruled out to copy the trend of 2019 and fall again.
BITMEX:XBT
by peter-l
SEC harvests the bigwigs of the coin circle, and the copycat coi The reincarnation of the coin circle does not need to live long. In every bear market, the copycat coins are played according to the rhythm of “zeroing”. Of course, this time is no exception. I have always been skeptical about copycat coins. They are both currency and securities, and they are impossible to exist in the mainstream market. Which reliable government can let the currency issuance power fall to others? So when I wrote articles in Golden Finance in those years, I repeatedly emphasized the risk of copycat coins, and this view has not changed until now. Bitcoin and Ethereum are defined as commodities, which are barely squeezed into the mainstream trading market, but a copycat coin also wants to enter the hall, isn’t it a dream? Now it’s fine, SEC has taken action, and unlike the Chinese government, the US government has shown the nature of capitalism. Everything is operated around economic interests. I don’t expel you, I just want money. If you are willing to redeem yourself and whitewash yourself, otherwise, I will let you go to hell. This time on the surface is harvesting Binance, coinbase, in fact, those blind followers are the final leeks. If we only look at the technical chart and do not consider the survival ability of the non-mainstream market in the future, this wave of copycat coins basically fell by 90%, which is definitely worth rebounding. But if you think about it, you can’t log in to compliant exchanges, including licensed markets such as Hong Kong’s encrypted exchanges in the future, then compliant funds will not be able to participate in transactions. And whether non-compliant funds can still play the role of market leader as before 2018? To be honest, I don’t have much concept of copycat coins and can’t give you more advice. In a highly speculative market, being conservative may not be a bad thing. From the daily line, bitcoin has a macd bottom divergence, ma144 and the previous head and shoulder bottom neckline 25200 have a certain support nearby, and the bulls also try to defend here. As for whether it can succeed, we need to see if macd can form a bottom divergence. And from the perspective of rebounding, I gave out abc’s structure earlier. At present, it should be in b’s adjustment. If the neckline fails to defend, 23200-21400 US dollars may be the adjustment target below. Of course, if we look at the monthly line, here is a larger adjustment structure ABC in which B wave rebounds cycle. Bitcoin has fallen by 77% in one wave this time. Compared with the decline in previous bear markets (more than 80%), it is still not in place (more than 80%), and it seems that the bear market has not ended from time to time. So after rebounding, there may be a more tragic wave of killing. In short, although institutional investors in the United States have joined in and changed the ecology of coin circles, although the previous barbaric growth mode will not disappear immediately, but game rules must change and make SEC comfortable. Change so that Wall Street tycoons can play more easily.
BITMEX:XBT
by peter-l