XBT30M trade ideas
Bitcoin forecast for the next 3 weeks!With the current momentum, it is highly likely BTC will retest the 30K zone in less than 3 weeks!
Keep in mind this is a 3 weeks forecast and there will be some positive days in between that could be used for day traders!
There is a slight chance BTC retest the 45-46K level in the next 7 days and then slips away!
However, the probability of having more red days is higher!
Best,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA , an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
*You can see the most important support (green lines) and resistance (red lines) to watch in the coming days in these charts!
We call this Max Pain First we pump to damn near previous ATH.
Retail who is currently panic selling and shitting their pants are in disbelief, they FOMO in and provide us with exit liquidity.
We proceed to print a nasty head and shoulders on the weekly and then its goblin town.
The past, the present and the future occur simultaneously.
Everything that is always has been and always will be.
As always, my memories are from the future.
We'll talk again when time catches up.
BTC Short Term WedgeShould find out soon but providing the bulls are still here, they would want to use the impulse from this wedge break to also take out the recent wave high. I have cloned the height of the wedge for a target area.
Not a lot of time for this to happen other wise I would call it a false break out.
BTC Macro OutlookI still believe us to be in a macro wave 4. Sadly this wave 4 has been massive and nearly a year long so far.
The wave one's 1.618 extension and the current wave three's 0.236 retrace happen to overlap. This should and will be strong area of support. If this holds then we are either experiencing an A-B-Truncated C for the wave 4 retrace or some sort of ABCDE that is yet to end playing out. Alternatively, we could fall to the 0.382 retrace at around 22k. This would be a more standard ABC correction.
I don't believe we have had a wave 5 top yet for a few reasons. Firstly, the waves to the current ATH were an ABC up. The A and C legs are roughly 1:1 extensions. Following the first point, there is no discernable 5 wave structure. Also, there has been no 'blow off top'. Finally, there was no fibonacci area of resistance. It simply stopped in between the 1.618 - 2.618 extensions of the first wave.
I'd also like to make clear I have done no time analysis. The lines are complete conjecture as to where they land in time frame.
BTC Short Term Bounce DueThere appears to finally have been a minor impulse wave since the move down began. Targets are around 43 - 45k. Then it will either make a higher low or simply go lower again.
I will post the 'higher resolution' of the minor wave in the comments as it was on 1minute charts and TV doesn't let you publish any ideas under 15minute time frames.
Set-up invalidated below the current low.
Bitcoin's historical trend is comparedThe xbt is a bitcoin futures contract launched by the bitmex, and I chose him as the analysis target because his data was adopted by the cme. In this market with hundreds of exchanges, the price of the bitcoin is defined differently, and we have to find a relatively stable reference, so I chose the xbt as the analysis target.
xbt biggest problem is his short timethere is limited history we can refer to.
But in the past four years, lithium, bitcoin trend, can still find some valuable reference.
Compared to the current position, we see that this is a big level decline, and in history, there are three same trends, from June-December 2018, June-December 2019, April-July 2021, and now, from November 2021 to now.
Among the four trends, the first three times are six months, six months and three months respectively, which is very conspicuous. If the first two times are defined as a major level adjustment, then April last year is the secondary level adjustment.And now is it three months old, or six months old?
In theory, after falling below ma144, the market should rebound and confirm, then decide direction.Now look, the first two have appeared a significant rebound, however, once again down the trend.But the third time did not appear, and this time, there was a rebound in ma144 in December.
If we believe in the rules, then the situation looks more like the one of the previous two than the one of April last April.
The first two final adjustments were 12 months and 9 months respectively, meaning that they took the abc triple-wave structure respectively, and the final adjustment goal was to step back to confirm the ma144-week line support.So now it may be at the end of the first wave of decline, but even into the bottom stage, it doesn't mean that buy now can profit, maybe there will be a bigger drop here, may shock for a period of time.So the best strategy to avoid risk is to wait for the right signal to buy, rather than predict price lows, and wait for a rise after buying.
Tip, the above analysis, only with the chart as a reference, does not involve the fundamentals.
Same Story 2 different explanation!It does not matter if you look at it as a head and shoulder or a quadratic regression (function)!
The most important thing is that it is moving toward 30K once again..!
You can see the most important support(green line) and resistance (red line) levels.
Best,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.