Are we in a Giant ABC?Possibly in a Macro ABC, with the B wave topping out at around 60-60.3k around Christmas and dropping in the new year and what would be the end of the first actual full wave 1 & 2 on the Macro Wave
XBT30M trade ideas
BTC short-term is going to drop from $42700 to $40k.We are in a bull market and through Dec 2023 clear a, b, c correction is being made.
Wave a and b are clearly done.
Wave c looks like a textbook ending diagonal pattern with waves 1, 2, 3, 4 already done and now we are in the middle of wave 5.
The drop won't stop until price reaches $40k level.
It's a good trade with a very high likelihood of success and amazing risk to reward.
$42700 is a good place to short with a stoploss at $43900 (above wave 4) and take profit $40k.
Bitcoin price and USA Election relationshipBitcoin price and USA Election relationship
A time prediction for bitcoin price rally by usa election
SHORTS AT SUPPORT Expecting pullback
Support
38K
35K
30K
Just in time when everyone's neighbor's cat is bullish.
BtclongsInteresting exponential chart
Nuked to the Golden pocket?
Less long exposure should make btc more free to move upwards..
And the order book is stacked af here albeit the weekly structure looks toppy as
X MARKS THE SPOTI'm starting a new series of analysis called X MARKS THE SPOT. A fun and simplified way to present price targets without the "fluff". I will save all my results into a database and present yearly reports.
The X represents our price target - obviously - however as many of my followers have witnessed throughout the years, my self taught analysis tends to be extremely accurate. This will be a good way to measure accuracy, something which should be deemed impossible. The X represents our goals which may happen before or after the predicted time frame. Above and below the target are my support/resistances. They are not traditional and instead curated with my analysis Having said that, it is important to exercise risk management. Now, lets begin this series and the life people bring to it.
I will incorporate entry and stop loss in future analysis as well.
BTC topping out around low 50s then coming to test 28-34k = MOONHello,
Green money flow curling up. I see alot of resistance ahead . BTC seems to be gasing out.
I see a top out at low 50s because of the thick resistance.
This would line up perfectly with what market cipher (lower indicator)
Creating a smaller wave (marked yellow bottom) which then sends us to the moon with a thick green money flow wave.
All of this perfectly times with the 2025 halving , multiple interest rate cuts in 2024 which could tank the market and more wars, covid before elections ETC.
100k is the dream but im realistic and my track record shows.
I shorted 46k in March 2022 when everyone was longing, proof in my "ideas"
BTC longs decreasing... what could it mean?I think we are heading for a retracement rally, once we get a correction from the rally longs will begin to climb again... if BTC smashes through my retracement levels of 48-53k my thesis is absolutely wrong...
Bitcoin $52kBull to bear perspective for the next year and a half.
52.3k rejection and an assessment to see if the recent parabolic trend breaks, if so structure needs to be assessed for potential head and shoulder formations. Downside target could be as low as 7.2k. Always assess risk and always be prepared to be wrong.
The downside drop is contingent of a bearish outlook on the stock market, and for the interest rate hikes over the last year to finally take effect. Also the swing from 3k to 69k, it would be ideal for price to rationalise this sudden rise by coming to the lower levels sub 10k before commencing the actual big bull. For now, enjoying these mini bull and bear cycles seem to be the name of the game rather than hodling and hoping. Further, a rejection at 52.3k in January would be the ideal time for an ETF approval, as we have seen approvals lead to large declines in the past.
:D
This is what whales are doing. Bitfinex BTCLONG chart. They cought technical tops and bottoms (Not absolute tops or bottoms)
tgt 40,600: Confluence lives matterIm seeing confluence between the W1 CNH target of 40,609 and the H4 triangle target of 40,961.
Be on the lookout for the retest of the 37,500-38k level.
Kubitsuri Reversal CandleThe Kubitsuri Reversal Candle just printed on BTC weekly. It is considered a weak reversal candle due to the upward thrust to make the long lower wick.
I am more bearish than bullish over the next few weeks, as we have had a good run and BTC needs a breather, I think.
Conservative entry for the 3-candle reversal pattern still being printed is around 35k. I'm not conservative.
BTC MoonI draw like shit but here it still is, green is patter from 2018 cycle, black is prognosed btc price movement in the coming years, same pattern as 2021 cycle
How it has been going and how it isCurrently my prediction for the last 6months has been fairly close with the price movements, we fell into the accumulation zone and now I will be predicting the price movement until march. My predictions are off historical movement, not doing wyckoff, elliot wave, etc.. anymore as I have found that they are meaningless in the economic state of the world. 10-12k bottom I still feel is relevant wont see that until January or February, the way the price moves to those levels are irrelevant as well, as long as we get to those levels. I will become a bulltard again when we get to those levels as I see a lot of the market over extension being over by that time and then the shorts will then be at risk capitulating the price as they get wiped from the order books. Instead of being scared at those price levels do what everyone else is NOT doing BUY and hold til Sept of 2025 and you'll be happy.
Over and out.
-KewlKat
Don't fall for the fake Bitcoin "Double Bottom" This will appear like a bullish double bottom formation, but neckline around 27500 - 27950 wont break.
Yes it will pump a bit more. Traders will end up trapped longing this BTC Pump. But the probability speaks against going above 28k range again.
Bitcoin will do back down after it wont be able to break mid/upper 27k region.
The calm before the storm.As i think we are entering the final and harsh phase of the bear market
i expect very active days in the coming months. Volatility can be broken up hard.
* What i share here is not an investment advice. Please do your own research before investing in any digital asset.
* Never take my personal opinions as investment advice, you may lose all your money.
Another opportunity to short XBTBITMEX:XBT has been touching the area of 25'980 USD, for a couple of days showing a huge support around that area. However, in theory with each touch on the area its gonna be debilitated.
In sum, I think it's a matter of days when we broke again to the downside having an opportunity for a short (if you are not already or in cash). The move it's gonna be tricky.
My strategy is the following:
1) If we touch again the area in consideration I will put a short with a Stop Loss (SL) with a medium conservatism waiting for a quick rebound (as in previous cycles).
2) I will close 25 % of my position at 24'000 and keep taking profit every 1'000 USD until getting to 75 %.
I will keep updating this idea as the market evolves rapidly.
BTC SHORTBITMEX:XBT has touched three times the support at 28,855 USD on the Daily. This pattern represents a short for me. I placed a short position yesterday to hedge my long placed since the bottom on the FTX crash on november 2022.
I don't have a target, yet. I will update my ideas on this trade.
Bitcoin Volatility Near Historic Lows, Large Move Coming SoonBitcoin has dropped to historically low levels of volatility. Typically this means a very large move in either direction is going to happen relatively soon. How soon exactly is not clear, maybe 1-4 weeks. This also doesn't indicate which direction the market will move, just that a breakout is likely coming soon. Take your pick on which direction it is going to go, or wait for a clear breakout.
Personally, I am biased to the downside. What I'm seeing now are bearish momentum divergences, bearish time targets, bearish Elliott Wave counts, bearish price action indicators, bearish moving averages, very positive sentiment (which is bearish, in particular clear manias formed in memecoins and NFTs again), and fundamental bearishness (market makers leaving, regulatory risk increasing, crypto banks going under, on-ramps closing, and over-leveraged holders like MSTR, DCG, and some major miners still not forced out), there's also macroeconomic risk with global rates going higher and no sign of a Fed rate cut until at least late 2024.
If this does clearly break to the upside I will be ready to flip long because we could see a move to around $40k in that case (bear market will probably resume after that). A break to the downside likely means we'll continue with my forecasted bear market ($10k in early 2024, $3-5K in 2025), and this will be a long-term top for the next ~2 years.
Options Straddle
An advanced trading strategy to take advantage of this particular situation is called an "Options Straddle."
This is a non-directional bet which is essentially long volatility. Since volatility virtually always increases after reaching a low point, this strategy aims to profit from an increase in volatility regardless of the direction in which the market moves.
To enter into an options straddle, you simultaneously buy a Call and Put option with the same expiration at the money.
Example
Buy Sept29th 29k Call for $1560 + Buy Sept29th 29k Put for $1060
Breakeven Price Calculation For Bull Scenario = Strike Price of the Call + Premium paid for the Call + Premium paid for the Put
29,000+1,560+1,060 = $31,620
Breakeven Price Calculation For Bearish Scenario = Strike Price of the Put − (Premium paid for the Call + Premium paid for the Put)
29,000 - (1,560 + 1,060) = $26,380
So as you can see, anything above $31,620 or below $26,380 at the expiration time of the option will result in a profit.
To calculate profit at the time of expiration, for each BTC options contract every $1 above the upper breakeven would be $1 of profit, and every $1 below the lower breakeven would be $1 in profit. However, due to extrinsic value, the trade could be profitable at a lower or higher price (respectively) if it is sold before the expiration date.
Also, you can decrease/increase the respective breakeven prices by buying options which are cheaper (ie. they have earlier expiration dates), but this increases the risk that the price may not change significantly before the expiration date, which would result in a loss.
Calculating Loss
The MAX loss for this trade would occur if BTC is at exactly 29k when the options expire, resulting in a loss of 1,560+1060 = $2,620.
If the underlying price is above the strike but below the bullish break-even:
Loss = Total Premium Paid − (Underlying Price − Strike Price)
If the underlying price is below the strike but above the bearish break-even:
Loss = Total Premium Paid − (Strike Price − Underlying Price)
WARNING! The BIGGEST BTC CRASH is so real for BITCOIN! U ready?!This is on a weekly timeframe, no more 1h or 4h timeframes... This is the REAL DEAL. The low 29k zone is an area where lot of people get burned. Please be careful here with long positions my friends. While I think that there is some steam to go up from previously confirmed patterns, the huge XXXL Rising Wedge raises immense concerns... My opinion is that we will have one more leg up because the Falling Wedge #2 will confirm and this will create so much Euphoria but eventually massively dump, possibly even to new lows around the 13k area. Crypto will be declared DEAD before the real amazing BULL RUN begins. Be careful my amigos this may be so brutal like nothing you have ever witnessed in this space.
Bullish Gartley Pattern in play for further move up to break 30k#Bitcoin is consolidating right below 30k with two failed breakout attempts. I think there is still steam up from the previously confirmed broken falling wedge and on the next attempt 30k shall break. A possible Gartley Pattern adds to the bullishness. Observing if the 1h candle will close as hammer. Still bullish overall but cautious here to make sure this is not a double top that may dump BTC further.
Whipsaw pattern!A whipsaw chart pattern is a type of price action that occurs when a security's price moves sharply in one direction, then quickly reverses and moves in the opposite direction. This can be a frustrating pattern for traders, as it can lead to losses if they enter or exit a trade at the wrong time.
Whipsaw patterns are most common in volatile markets, where prices can fluctuate wildly. They can also occur in trending markets, but they are less common in these cases.
There are two main types of whipsaw patterns:
Trend reversals: These patterns occur when a security's price is in a strong trend and then suddenly reverses direction. For example, a stock that has been trending up for several days may suddenly reverse and start trending down.
Rangebound markets: These patterns occur when a security's price is trading within a narrow range and then suddenly breaks out of the range in either direction. For example, a stock that has been trading between $10 and $11 for several weeks may suddenly break out to $12 or $9.
Whipsaw patterns can be difficult to trade, but there are a few things that traders can do to minimize their risk:
Use stop-loss orders: Stop-loss orders are a type of order that automatically closes a trade if the price moves against the trader's position by a certain amount. This can help to limit losses if the trader is whipsawed.
Trade with caution: Whipsaw patterns are unpredictable, so it is important to trade with caution when they occur. Traders should only enter trades that they are comfortable with and that they have a good risk-reward ratio.
It is important to remember that no trading strategy is guaranteed to be successful. Whipsaw patterns can happen to anyone, even experienced traders. However, by following the tips above, traders can minimize their risk of being whipsawed.
🔥 Bitcoin Volatility Lows: Massive Move GUARANTEED 🚨If you enjoy this analysis, please give it a like and a follow.
I've made several analyses on Bitcoin's extremely low volatility over the last couple of weeks. In this analysis, I want to take a look at yet another metric that measures volatility: BVOL7D, on the daily chart.
On the top chart, white, you find Bitcoin's historical volatility. On the bottom chart, orange, you find BTC's price on the log scale.
Once BTC volatility reaches the yellow area, it indicates that volatility is extremely low. Historically, this has ALWAYS correctly predicted that a huge move was coming. Furthermore, 3 of the 4 previous moves were bullish.
Keep in mind we can continue to trade sideways for some time. But, I can guarantee you that a big >20% move is coming in the next few weeks. The million dollar question will be whether we're going to pump or to dump. I've made multiple analyses on either potential direction recently, but my bias is to the bearish side. Happy to be proven wrong!
Do you think we're going to see a big move soon? Which direction are you trading? Share your thoughts in the comments below 🙏
