XBT30M trade ideas
BTC DOWN - DECREASING LONG, INCREASING SHORTSShorts increasing and longs decreasing, could see a drop in BTC soon…
BTCUSD Longs hit bottom, Inverse relation to price as can seeWhat will the box do? Bottom in Longs previously revealed a crash. Daily RSI is even worse now.
looks like 59.1K is coming wave 3 of 1 59k
we have finished wave a b, c was a triple combo flat flat tringle we have finished wave 1,2 now we are in 3 all these wave are from wave 1 of 5
Bitcoin, Tesla, and My approach to Technical analysis..!My approach to technical analysis:
I try to find price patterns that are repeated in different assets and using correlation studies to see if they could be good matches.
I believe tesla price patterns could be used as the best predictive indicator for bitcoin price patterns.
What happens inTesla could be followed by Bitcoin with 2 months delay.
Look at my analysis comparing Tesla and Bitcoin on April 9th, 2021.
4 days before the all-time high of Bitcoin I published an analysis with this title: (even recorded a YouTube video for this analysis)
Learn From Tesla Experience:
what do you think is more important?
moving average itself or moving average slope?
your answer to this question will save your capital in the market and will change the game forever..!
while moving average is a delayed indicator, I believe its slope is a predictive indicator!
Don't believe me, check how I predicted the market crash in EV makers before everyone else!
While everyone fools themselves about the EV makers' stock price and talking about 7000 USD tesla price and for NIO, I was the one who predicted the crash in EV makers as early as February 18th, when tesla was 800 and NIO was 56. I predicted 32 for NIO and it slipped to 31.91.
(please check the related links for evidence)
Please review my Bitcoin analysis as well:
1st: Sep 12, 2020: Bitcoin could technically soar to 100k ( Bitcoin price 10457)
2nd: Oct 21, 2020: Do not trade Bitcoin invest in Bitcoin for the next 2 years. ( Bitcoin price: 12441)
3rd: Nov 10, 2020: short term in contrast with long-term ( Bitcoin price: 15186
4th: Nov 11, 2020: fresh out of consolidation: Bitcoin price 15861
5th: Nov 25, 2020: Next 10-12 months of Bitcoin: Bitcoin price: 19090 (target 50k-72k in less than 1 year)
6th: Nov 26, 2020: Should we panic? Bitcoin price 16508
7th: Jan 10, 2021: It May sounds crazy, but this is an opportunity to buy Bitcoin: bitcoin price 35565
8th: Jan 27, 2021: the more it consolidated the further it goes. Bitcoin price 31262
In conclusion, I believe the 100K scenario is less likely to happen soon!
On the other analysis on January 9th, 2021 I compared these:
Bitcoin vs Tesla:
It is crystal clear that no asset class can beat Bitcoin’s gain of +500,000% in the last 10 years, but it is not the whole story. In the last 2 years, investors in Tesla have been rewarded 9 times!
We should keep in mind that in the last 6 months, Bitcoin performs 50% better and in the last 3 months performs twice better as Tesla. It seems in 2021 Bitcoin will perform better than Tesla.
Bitcoin mining demands energy while Tesla’s vision is to revolutionize the energy consumption in the world.
Tesla performs better than all the big names in the stock market in the last decade and also beats Bitcoin in the last 2 years.
With current momentum, it could pass Apple in terms of market cap in several months unless something extraordinary happens.
Last world: keep both in your portfolio..!
unless something extraordinary happens.
This is the key, why I changed my views on both of these assets!
They Both lost their momentum..!
Fixed or Dynamic Approach:
What Is a Posterior Probability?
A posterior probability, in Bayesian statistics, is the revised or updated probability of an event occurring after taking into consideration new information. The posterior probability is calculated by updating the prior probability using Bayes' theorem. In statistical terms, the posterior probability is the probability of event A occurring given that event B has occurred.
What Does a Posterior Probability Tell You?
Bayes' theorem can be used in many applications, such as medicine, finance, and economics. In finance, Bayes' theorem can be used to update a previous belief once new information is obtained. Prior probability represents what is originally believed before new evidence is introduced, and posterior probability takes this new information into account.
Posterior probability distributions should be a better reflection of the underlying truth of a data generating process than the prior probability since the posterior included more information. A posterior probability can subsequently become a prior for a new updated posterior probability as new information arises and is incorporated into the analysis.
Dec 2017- March 2018:
What happened in the next 9 months:
Trends are important, but their time frame is more important..!
A bullish rally is defined as reaching higher highs..!
Any bullish moves in bitcoin should be considered as a temporary correction unless bitcoin closes above 63760..!
can you benefit from a temporary move?
of course yes..! if you can detect them why not..!
Links:
youtu.be
www.investopedia.com
$BTC it doesn't seem comfortable at allWatching Close the OI BTC indicator and price movement it doesn't seem comfortable at all these moments in the markets 🤔
Pro Tip :
High open interest means there are many contracts still open, which means market participants will be watching that market closely. ... Increasing open interest represents new or additional money coming into the market while decreasing open interest indicates money flowing out of the market.
ISMASHPROFIT 💎
Triangle Wave X scenario invalidated but this is still BearishThe proposed triangle scenario for wave X has been invalidated since the most recent pump went above to wave (a) But this does not confirm any bullish count. As a matter of fact an alternative scenario where wave X is likely a flat correction is in play especially when wave C is looking like a diagonal which fits all the criteria for a complex flat correction. I ve looked into the lower counts as well and the recent pump does not suggest an impulse because there are many truncated corrections during the pump.
One last mark up to 44-45k Then we go to 2018 highs at a minimum just like Lumber Futures
Short Bitcoin hard at this level ALL in 100xStack shorts from here up until 44.5k
SL in orange
target 20k-19.8k Minimum
LETS GO BEARS
BTC (you see what you want to see)That is how most people make analysis. They see what they want to see, they look for indicators and charts that support their views and they thumb em up. And they get REKT.
You may think I have problem with bitcoin, but it is not true!This is a review analysis to see how many bullish analysis I published between September 2020 and April 2021 on bitcoin, and compare it with Bearish analysis I published afterward!
Each Green dot(triangle) means a Bullish analysis I published, and each red dot(triangle) means a Bearish analysis I published.
It really is important to understand the shifts in trend..!
What Is a Death Cross?What Is a Death Cross?
The death cross is a technical chart pattern indicating the potential for a major sell-off. The death cross appears on a chart when a stock’s short-term moving average crosses below its long-term moving average. Typically, the most common moving averages used in this pattern are the 50-day and 200-day moving averages.
What Does the Death Cross Tell You?
The death cross occurs when a short-term moving average (typically 50-day SMA) crosses over a major long-term moving average (typically 200-day SMA) to the downside and is interpreted by analysts and traders as signaling a definitive bear turn in a market. (I use EMA )
Looking back over the most punishing bear markets of the past century, it seems the death cross holds up best once the market has already lost 20% of its value. In those instances, investors who fled stocks minimized their losses. But for smaller corrections of less than 20%, the temporary appearance of the death cross may be reflecting losses already booked, and thus indicates a buying opportunity.
On June 23, Bitcoin was trading between 28800-33300 (-55% to -45%)
This may sound old news today, But It was not on May 19 when I published the post, and predict this 35 days before it happened!:
One important question:
If bitcoin trades do not follow a purely algorithmic approach, how did I predict the Top at 63810.01 on the correct day??? and calculate the death cross, 35 days before it happened???
Reference:
www.investopedia.com
The Bifinex Whales are gone?Pretty weird they haven't stacked up shorts at a key resistance like in the past. BTC went up to 42k and faced quite strong resistance but they aren't shorting. Very odd indeed
btc comeback and Rising market of cryptocurrenciesAs you can see in the picture
.. bit price by reaching the Fibonacci gold zone
In golden number with a long shadow in
The first daily candle of a fake break
Done and the next day, daily candle break
out and continue to climb
Given but reaching the golden zone of Fibo
From historic roof to 3-month floor
,,, Rejected price .. now or
Have to wait for a pullback to this area and breakout
Next and midline failure in the long-term channel
,,, or the price will reach the 38.2 Fibo short-term line
And let's see how you react to this support
It catches ... Of course .. bullish candle due to attack to
Prices by buyers and daily formation of Doji ,,,.
In the short term, bitcoin seems to be on the rise
... Of course, if China and elephants each person
,,, will not remember India .
Red Pill or Green PillHey guys! 1PERCENT here.
Its still hard to find a good trade so I'm waiting this out for a clear direction
I personally think the RR is better for the shorts right now and the bulls will have their chance once we reclaim the range high of January.
The bears could start partying once bitcoin breaks the yellow trendline which will lead us to 36.4k.
In the longterm, the crypto market still seems optimistic and I think that IF we do get a dip its shopping time.
Stay safe out there and always keep your stop losses if you're trading.
Keep your dreams real.
1PERCENT
Bitcoin updateI am updating my chart a little bit, I adjusted the target. 45k-50k seems more like it before a pull-back. Right now Bitcoin is once again fooling traders by stopping at the most likely resistance. Some side-ways movement ahead of us before we continue higher.
Going Perfectly as Planned! - 07.30 UpdateHey guys! 1PERCENT here.
After the fall from the range high I mentioned how we were likely gonna see a bounce if we stalled on the 05.19 range mid because its been the most important range recently.
We are currently bouncing off the range high and everything will depend on how we do at these levels.
The important part to pay attention will be the breaking of the range high for the bulls and the breaking of the yellow trendline for the bears.
I personally think the RR is better for the shorts right now and the bulls will have their chance once we reclaim the range high.
In the longterm, the crypto market still seems optimistic and I think that IF we do get a dip its shopping time.
Stay safe out there and always keep your stop losses if you're trading.
Keep your dreams real.
1PERCENT
bitcoin target around 40,000 $It seems bitcoin finished wave 5 and also, reacted well for its support (30,000 $). I think bitcoin can reach at least around 40 ,000 $ but major trend is bearish .
BTC (up we go)I cant see this train stopping yet. We are going to hit 50-55k area before a bigger pull-back. This will form the fist wave when the pull-back happens. Fractal can be seen in lower time-frames (5min) for example.
Going as planned! - 07.27 updateHey guys! 1PERCENT here :)
It turned out the news about the bitcoin payment by Amazon was a rumor, which caused bitcoin to fall.
On the chart it seems like the 05.19 range high is acting as a strong resistance. I mentioned that if we take $35040 we will see higher levels and there you go!
We can see that BTC is currently stalling on the local range support. The important part to pay attention will be the red trendline. If broken we'll see a deeper pullback, if it bounces off of it, we'll resume the uptrend.
As you can see we are still range bound and it seems to be safer to not chase the trend but to play level to level using ranges.
In the longterm, the crypto market still seems optimistic and we think that it's a good place to start stacking spot long positions for the next bull run.
Stay safe out there and always keep your stop losses if you're trading.
Keep your dreams real.
1PERCENT
BTC expecting something like thisIn my eyes we are following the fractal, but you cant see it unless you zoom in to really low time-frames. I see that we should be hitting 54-55k at least before a pull-back.
